Venezuelan Daily Brief

Published in association with The DVA Group and The Selinger Group, the Venezuelan Daily Brief provides bi-weekly summaries of key news items affecting bulk commodities and the general business environment in Venezuela.

Friday, March 15, 2013

March 15, 2013


Economics & Finance

Venezuela to create new foreign exchange market, Maduro says - BCV dollar tenders anticipated
Venezuela will create an alternative currency market to crack down on a black market in which the dollar is worth about four times more than the official rate, interim President Nicolas Maduro said. “It’s now ready, we’re missing some details on the mechanisms,” Maduro said in an interview yesterday. “We hope to announce it very soon, activate it, incorporating all the economic sectors.” The new state-run system will replace a central bank- administered currency market known as SITME and would seek to complement the current foreign exchange rate system known as CADIVI, Maduro said. The complementary system will provide sufficient foreign currency for the economy while meeting the country’s “real needs,” Maduro said. According to unofficial sources, experts at PDVSA and the Central Bank have devised a plan for dollar tenders by the Central Bank with support from the state oil company. FOREX would be drained from funding currently going to the National Development Fund, as the Central Bank lacks resources to support the system - and using reserves is not an option as they are used to pay from imports made through the Exchange Board (CADIVI). The base price would be set by the Central Bank (BCV) and would fluctuate according to supply and demand. This would imply an additional devaluation, but the percentage has not yet been established. Finance and Planning Minister Jorge Giordani is reported to be the sole holdout for approving the system. (Bloomberg, 03-14-2013; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-14/venezuela-to-create-new-foreign-exchange-market-maduro-says.html; El Universal; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/130314/venezuelas-acting-president-new-forex-system-is-ready; and more in Spanish: El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/)

Gov't allows exporters to keep 40% of US dollar earnings
Venezuela's new requirements and steps for exports have been enacted allowing both individuals and companies involved in exporting goods and services will be allowed to retain and manage up to 40% of their earnings in US dollars. (El Universal, 03-14-2013; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/130314/venezuelan-govt-allows-exporters-to-keep-40-of-us-dollar-earnings)

American intelligence services warn of an economic collapse in Venezuela, pointing out that debt obligations by the Venezuelan government “will use up” any increase of oil revenue even if the prices remain high. (Veneconomy, 03-13-2013; http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=34020&idc=2)

Official unemployment rate at 9.4% in January
Venezuela's unemployment rate averaged 9.4% in January according to a monthly report compiled by the National Statistics Institute (INE). The report, which examines the state of the workforce, shows 1.27 million people unemployed in the first month of 2013 - a drop compared to 2012, when it hit 10.3%. (El Universal, 03-13-2013; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/130313/venezuelas-unemployment-rate-at-94-in-january)

Commodities


IEA warns of oil challenges Venezuela faces after President Chávez’ death. The International Energy Agency point out Chávez has left PDVSA under financial pressure, “an aged infrastructure in desperate need of investments (…) and part of its future crude production mortgaged to Chinese leaders.” According to the IEA, Venezuelan oil production has dropped by 700,000 barrels per day in the last 14 years. Oil and Mining Minister Rafael Ramírez's response was to say that the Agency is an imperialist instrument, "anti-OPEC, created to destroy OPEC". (Veneconomy, 03-13-2013; http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=34021&idc=4; Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/13/oil-iea-venezuela-idUSL6N0C533S20130313; Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-13/venezuela-oil-spending-may-extend-decline-under-maduro-iea-says.html; and more in Spanish: AVN; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/ram%C3%ADrez-agencia-internacional-energ%C3%ADa-defiende-intereses-for%C3%A1neos)

Lyondell refinery replaces Venezuelan oil with Canadian oil
Lyondell Basell Industries NV is readying its Houston based refinery, which mostly uses Venezuelan oil, to receive new oil supplies, particularly from Canada, according to a presentation made Wednesday to Wall Street analysts. The company has spent U$D 50 million to almost treble its refining capacity of Canadian heavy oil in Houston, from 60,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 175,000 bpd. Revamping a crude oil distiller and a coking unit to refine crude oil from the tar fields of Alberta, Canada, "is being completed," Lyondell CEO Jim Gallogly said. Works began in the middle of February and they are expected to finish in the middle of April, Reuters said.(El Universal, 03-13-2013; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/130313/lyondell-refinery-replaces-venezuelan-oil-with-canadian-oil)

LUKOIL barred from Venezuela
Oil and Mining Minister Rafael Ramirez has announced that unless statements by a LUKOIL executive are clarified, the Russian company will be barred from Venezuela. LUKOIL representatives recently complained about the slow pace of operations and agreements, saying that oil investors need legal certainty. Ramirez has responded: "We are verifying whether statements attributed to Mr. Andrei Kuzyayev, of Lukoil, are true; and if they are this leaves LUKOIL out of our oil business as we will not allow any private foreign company to dictate to us what our policy should be. We have not taken this from US multinationals and we will not take it from anybody." (El Mundo, 03-15-2013; http://www.elmundo.com.ve/Noticias/Petroleo/Industria/Ramirez--Lukoil-esta-fuera-del-pais.aspx)

Orinoco output with Italy's ENI launched
Venezuela started production with Italy's ENI at a joint venture in its vast Orinoco belt on Wednesday, and officials expect output to begin soon at projects with Chevron and the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). In addition, Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA will sign a long-awaited U$D2 billion credit agreement with Chevron at the end of this month. Ramirez has said that Venezuela will maintain its oil industry tax and legal framework under acting President Nicolas Maduro, seeking to reassure foreign investors after last week's death of Hugo Chavez. "Today begins early production at our PETROJUNIN joint venture (with ENI)," Ramirez told reporters. "We're symbolically starting with 700 barrels per day (bpd). It will reach 15,000 bpd by the end of the year, and 75,000 bpd en 2015." (Reuters, 03-13-2013; http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/13/venezuela-oil-idUSL1N0C5ATP20130313; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/130313/oil-drilling-at-junin-5-starts-up)

CORPOELEC denies its own sale to China. In a press release, the National Electric Corporation CORPOELEC has denied rumors of an alleged sale of the company to the Peoples Republic of China. The company is headed by a brother of the late President Chavez. More in Spanish: (AVN, 03-15-2013; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/corpoelec-rebate-falso-rumor-sobre-venta-acciones-china; Ultimas Noticias, http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/actualidad/economia/corpoelec-desmiente-venta-de-acciones-a-china.aspx)


Politics


Capriles: Nicolás Maduro is the Castro brothers presidential candidate

Opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles has challenged the way Nicolás Maduro was made acting president and presidential candidate of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela.
"How did Nicolás come into play? Well, Nicolás is the candidate of (Cuban President) Raúl Castro. Therefore, he means giving Venezuela away to the interests of Raúl Castro. I would like the followers of (late) President (Hugo Chávez) to tell me if they want Venezuelans' resources to be given to the Castro brothers (...) That's what Nicolás will do," Capriles said. (El Universal, 03-14-2013; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/130314/capriles-nicolas-maduro-is-castro-brothers-presidential-candidate)

Cuba is said to have sent 2,000 agents to support Maduro
Cuba bet hard on the political management of President Hugo Chávez's illness. Now, it is committed to make the election favor acting President Nicolás Maduro. Some 46,000 Cuban "cooperators" who officially reside in Venezuela, have the mission of safeguarding the "Chavista" revolution. In addition, Havana has commissioned a detachment for election monitoring, estimated at 2,500 troops, according to intelligence reports from Cuba. As Cuban units in Venezuela paid tribute to the body of President Chavez, their leader, Roberto López said: "We are here to ratify our dedication; yes, so far we have given it all; now, we are ready to give even our lives, our blood, if necessary, for this revolution". (El Universal, 03-14-2013; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/130313/cuba-is-said-to-have-sent-2000-agents-to-lever-maduro)

FARC grateful for Venezuela's support in Colombian peace talks
The Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces (FARC) have expressed their gratitude to Venezuelan acting President Nicolás Maduro for his support in the peace talks held in Havana, which seek to put an end to the Colombian armed conflict that has last more than fifty years. "Thank you, President Maduro. We will work hard here in Havana to make progress in the roundtable (discussions), seeking to reach an agreement with the Colombian Government," based on peace, said FARC's chief negotiator Iván Márquez, AFP reported. (El Universal, 03-14-2013; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/130313/farc-grateful-for-venezuelas-support-in-colombias-peace-dialog)

Maduro now says it will probably not be possible to embalm Chavez
Acting Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said Wednesday that it would be “rather difficult” to embalm the body of Hugo Chavez because the decision to do so was made too late and the procedure was not started in time. Maduro said that Russian and German experts arrived in Venezuela to help with the embalming process but that “the scientific news and the opinions” among the group were that “it’s going to be rather difficult for it to be that way, because the preparations needed to be started and the decision (to do so) should have been made much sooner.” (Latin American herald Tribune, 03-13-2013; http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=710003&CategoryId=10717; El Universal, 03-14-2013; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/130314/venezuelas-maduro-chavezs-body-may-not-be-embalmed; Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-13/venezuela-s-chavez-may-not-receive-lenin-like-embalmment.html; Fox News, http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/03/13/chavez-long-term-embalming-unlikely-venezuela-acting-president-says/)

Jaua speaks of improved relations with the US
Foreign Minister Jaua told CNN that Venezuela has established communication with the US Government through its OAS Representative Roy Chaderton, and says bilateral relations can be strengthened "as long as the US has the good will to understand that we can only have better relations on a basis of mutual respect". More in Spanish: (AVN, 03-15-2013; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/jaua-s%C3%B3lo-respeto-mutuo-garantizar%C3%A1-buenas-relaciones-entre-venezuela-y-eeuu)

Chavez legacy lauded at UN
During a United Nations tribute to Hugo Chavez, Foreign Minister Elias Jaua said Venezuela will to continue to promote the ideas that marked the actions of the Bolivarian Revolution's leader in international policy, in search for other possible world and "raise with greater strength flags of the Bolivarian Socialism." (AVN, 03-14-2013; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/chavez-legacy-ratified)



The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

March 12, 2013


Economics & Finance

Tougher exchange controls are on the way, according to Oil and Mining Minister Rafael Ramírez, who has announced acting President Maduro and Finance Minister Giordani will unveil new steps to fight speculation and "attacks on the Bolivar" More in Spanish: (El Mundo, 03-12-2013; http://www.elmundo.com.ve/Noticias/Economia/Politicas-Publicas/El-Gobierno-prepara-duras-medidas-para-atacar-dola.aspx)

CITI forecasts more price controls, lower oil prices, weakened economy
A CITI report estimated the price of Venezuela's oil basket will drop to U$D 85 per barrel, which is far less than necessary to keep national accounts in balance and bring the country closer to bankruptcy. In addition, growing inflation and scarcities will lead the Government to far more radical steps, such as price controls and new takeovers. It adds that Chavez's successor will initially continue to fund social programs generously, and there will be short term increases in the minimum wage, but these steps will do little to meet the country's economic problems. More in Spanish: (El Nacional, 03-12-2013; http://www.el-nacional.com/)

Maduro promises long term economic policies
Speaking to a meeting of the Communist Party, acting President Nicolás Maduro announced the creation of a new "mission" aimed at "industrializing". He said this "mission" does not now exist and will be inserted into government plans. The program was part of President Chavez's campaign platform last year. More in Spanish: (El Universal, 03-12-2013; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/130312/maduro-promete-medidas-economicas-de-largo-plazo)

Maduro says PETROCARIBE and ALBA will stay their course following death of President Chavez. He said Venezuela will seek to turn PETROCARIBE into an "economic region" for industry and investments. He also said "the road to ALBA is confirmed".  Officials from nations benefitted by PETROCARIBE had voiced their concerns about the system - which allows them to pay their oil bills over 25 years. More in Spanish: (El Mundo, 03-12-2013; http://www.elmundo.com.ve/Noticias/Economia/Politicas-Publicas/Maduro-ratifica-continuidad-de-Petrocaribe-y-la-Al.aspx; El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/)

Markets on standby due to the political situation
Economist Victor Silva, director of KAPITAL Consultants, has recommended that anyone interested in investing in bonds wait a couple of months while the political situation becomes clearer. He says that while bonds may rise they may also drop at any moment, "risk / performance is not beneficial to an investor at this time," he said. More in Spanish: (El Mundo, 03-11-2013; http://www.elmundo.com.ve/Noticias/Economia/Politicas-Publicas/Mercados-a-la-expectativa-por-situacion-politica-e.aspx)

Business stretches inventories due to FOREX scarcity, and those who have not shut down operations are seeking protection by raising prices in some cases over 100%. More in Spanish: (El Mundo, 03-12-2013; http://www.elmundo.com.ve/Noticias/Economia/Empresas/Empresas--estiran--inventarios-por-la-falta-de-div.aspx



Commodities
PDVSA policies to remain unaltered, says its President, Rafael Ramírez, who is also Oil and Mining Minister. Ramirez called this policy "one of the most important legacies" of the late President Chavez, and added "it was one of the most successful parts" of his administration. He says taxation of oil incomes has been completely successful: "Adjustments in this area raised tax income from oil from 45% to 96% of income per barrel." More in Spanish: (Ultimas Noticias, 03-12-2013; http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/actualidad/economia/politica-petrolera-de-pdvsa-seguira-firme-dice-ram.aspx)

Venezuela's oil basket down 2.23%; stands at U$D 101.57
Venezuela's oil basket plunged U$D 2.32 and ended last week at U$D 101.57 per barrel, according to the Petroleum and Mining Ministry. This is a 2.23% setback from results a week earlier, when the oil basket averaged U$D 103.89 per barrel. The oil price has slipped U$D 7.18 per barrel in the last three weeks. (El Universal, 03-11-2013; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/130311/venezuelas-oil-basket-down-223-stands-at-usd-10157)


SIDOR liquid steel production was up 30% in February, says company president Rafael Gil, who compared the month's output to the same time last year. More in Spanish: (AVN, 03-12-2013; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/producci%C3%B3n-acero-l%C3%ADquido-sidor-aument%C3%B3-30-durante-febrero; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/130312/sidor-incremento-la-produccion-de-acero-liquido-este-ano


International Trade

Trade with Colombia expected to remain fluid, according to members of the Venezuela-Colombia Economic Integration Chamber (CAVECOL). CEO Luis Alberto Russián hopes that "relations continue fluidly and reconstruction. Step by step". More in Spanish: (El Universal, 03-11-2013; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/130311/esperan-que-comercio-con-colombia-continue-fluido)

Nicaraguan opposition leaders ask for FTA with Caracas
Nicaragua's opposition leaders insisted on demanding the government of President Daniel Ortega signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Venezuela to "institutionalize" trade relations between the two countries, which have grown steadily since 2007. Eliseo Nunez, an opposition lawmaker, insisted that after the death of President Hugo Chavez an FTA should be a priority for the Sandinista government to ensure the continuation of trade relations, DPA reported. More in Spanish: (El Universal, 03-11-2013 http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/130311/diputados-nicaraguenses-piden-firmar-tlc-con-caracas) 


Logistics & Transport

Puerto Cabello port administration is operating during the mourning period, according to General Henry Montilla, who manages the facility. He also said 22 vessels were processed during this period, and there are 15 ships at bay, More in Spanish: (Bolipuertos, http://www.bolipuertos.gob.ve/noticia.aspx?id=6931; Notitarde, http://www.notitarde.com/La-Costa/Bolipuertos-ha-atendido-un-total-de-22-buques/2013/03/11/170809)



Politics
Henrique Capriles decides to run for president in April vote
Opposition leader and governor of Miranda state Henrique Capriles addressed the nation to announce that he will be the presidential candidate of the opposition coalition. "Clinging to God, I will fight along with all of you. Nicolás (Maduro) I am not going to clear the way for you. We will defend our ballots, whatever it costs."
Capriles added that he will tour the country. "Let us seize this opportunity to unite. People with evil plans seek division, as they think they can keep power that way."
(El Universal, 03-11-2013; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/130310/henrique-capriles-decides-to-run-for-president-in-april-vote; Fox News, http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/03/10/all-eyes-on-opposition-leader-henrique-capriles-as-election-set-to-replace-hugo/)

Capriles, Maduro at each other's throats in Venezuela election
Presidential candidates Nicolás Maduro and Henrique Capriles have begun Venezuela's election race with scathing personal attacks even as mourners still file past the late Hugo Chavez's corpse. Maduro, who was sworn in as acting president after Chavez succumbed to cancer last week, is seen as the favorite to win the April 14 election, bolstered by an oil-financed state apparatus and a wave of public sympathy over Chavez's death. (Reuters, 03-11-2013; http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/11/venezuela-election-idUSL1N0C34J420130311; http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/11/venezuela-election-idUSL1N0C20N120130311)

Pro-Maduro mob blocks Capriles from reaching Elections Board
Democratic Unity presidential candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski was unable to enter the Elections Board headquarters, despite National Police efforts, as threatening pro-Maduro goon squads blocked all entrances after a Maduro rally earlier in the day. A representative was authorized to present the formal nomination. More in Spanish: (Tal Cual, 03-12-2013; http://www.talcualdigital.com/index.html)

Chávez's remains to be taken to a museum and then to the National Pantheon
Nicolás Maduro, acting President, says the remains of President Hugo Chávez will be taken next Friday to the Museum of the Mountain, in west Caracas. He also said a proposal will soon be made to amend the Constitution in order to bury Chávez at the National. (El Universal, 03-11-2013; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/130311/chavezs-remains-to-be-taken-to-a-museum-and-then-to-the-national-panth)

Cuban president confident about continuity of Chavezism in Venezuela
Cuban President Raúl Castro told Cuban local press he is confident that Venezuela's president in charge Nicolás Maduro and the rest of the country's ruling party leaders will succeed in bringing forward the "great work" of late President Hugo Chávez. "We came back satisfied to see how Chávez's great work is taking hold and the great support of the people," Castro asserted after returning from Venezuela, where he attended Chávez's state funeral, EFE informed. (El Universal, 03-11-2013; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/130311/cuban-president-confident-about-continuity-of-chavezism-in-venezuela; Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/11/us-venezuela-chavez-castro-idUSBRE92A0FU20130311; The Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/fidel-castro-says-cuba-has-lost-its-best-friend-with-passing-of-venezuelas-hugo-chavez/2013/03/11/67e9b904-8a5a-11e2-a88e-461ffa2e34e4_story.html)

GLOBOVISIÓN majority stock (80%) to be sold to Juan Domingo Cordero, an insurance businessman with ties to the government. Guillermo Zuloaga, who holds 80% shared in the station, confirmed through his attorney that there is an offer to buy and a "compelled" sale underway due to sustained government political, economic and legal harassment. Zuloaga says the non negotiable condition is that the sale takes place after the April 14th Presidential elections. Attorney Asdrúbal Aguiar speaking for minority shareholder Nelson Mezerhane says he “won’t sell (his minor stake (20%)) to those who have persecuted him.” Mezerhane’s shares were confiscated by the regime three years ago. (Veneconomy, 03-11-2013; http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=33989&idc=3, and more in Spanish: Tal Cual; http://www.talcualdigital.com/index.html)

Analysis: After Chavez, Latin America's ideological battle may ease
Hugo Chavez's exit from the world stage may take the sting out of an ideological battle that has enveloped Latin America since a new batch of leftists started taking power about 15 years ago to challenge U.S. "imperialism".
Fans say Chavez's hyperkinetic energy is irreplaceable, and even before his death last Tuesday the appeal of his boisterous, hard line approach to economic and foreign policy had faded. (Reuters, 03-11-2013; http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/11/us-venezuela-chavez-region-idUSBRE92A0WW20130311)

US expel 2 Venezuelan diplomats, in reciprocity for the Venezuelan Government's ousting of two military attachés last week, following the death of President Chavez. Orlando José Montañez, a second secretary at the Embassy in Washington, and Víctor Camacaro Mata, a consular official, left the country last Sunday. (El Universal, 03-12-2013; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/130312/eeuu-expulsa-a-dos-diplomaticos-venezolanos; AVN; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/gobierno-estados-unidos-expulsa-diplom%C3%A1ticos-venezolanos)



The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.

Friday, March 8, 2013

March 08, 2013


Economics & Finance

Sovereign bonds continue down on expectation the Constitution may not be strictly followed
Political uncertainty continues to discourage investors in sovereign bonds. BARCLAY's has lowered Venezuelan bond weight within their portfolio from overweight to neutral as it does not expect bond prices to rise any further due to uncertainties arising from the possibility that the Government will not follow rules established within the Constitution. More in Spanish: (El Universal, 03-08-2013; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/130308/los-bonos-de-la-republica-continuan-en-tendencia-negativa)

Multinational companies expect no further economic adjustment
International firms believe new presidential elections will be held before the population is hit by inflationary impacts and greater scarcity. HSBC says the worsening economy, growing inflation and scarcity will lead to a quick election which will cut down on opposition campaign time. They foresee no further economic adjustment since the interim government lacks the legitimacy needed in order to apply radical reforms. More in Spanish: (El Nacional, 03-08-2013; http://www.el-nacional.com/economia/Firmas-internacionales-preven-ajustes-economicos_0_149387825.html)

WB does not rule out increased foreign investment in Venezuela
World Bank's Chief Economist Augusto de la Torre says the institution is alert for an orderly transition in Venezuela, and did not rule out the possibility of increased foreign investments in the country.
He said although no one has "a crystal ball" to forecast whether there would be changes, "you cannot rule out that changes in Venezuela will lead to significant room for foreign investment," EFE reported.
(El Universal, 03-07-2013; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/130307/wb-does-not-rule-out-venezuelas-opening-to-foreign-investments)

Social inclusion is Chavez's the economic legacy
Central Bank President Nelson Merentes says social inclusion is the most important legacy of President Hugo Chavez.
He says most significant economic contribution was to include those most in need in government programs, through projects that promote social inclusion in health, housing and education. (AVN, 03-07-2013; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/social-inclusion-economic-legacy-left-chavez)

Inflation rises less than expected after devaluation
Venezuelan consumer prices rose less than expected last month as a devaluation of the Bolivar in February failed to have the immediate impact on prices that many analysts had anticipated. Prices rose 1.6% from January, the central bank said today, compared with the 3.2% median estimate of six economists in a Bloomberg survey. The nationwide inflation rate reached 22.8%, the highest in ten months. The government of former President Hugo Chavez, who died March 5 following a two-year battle with cancer, devalued the Bolivar by 32% on Feb. 8. Many stores are still selling imports they bought at the previous exchange rate and haven’t lifted prices to reflect the new rate. Food prices, which account for 37% of the inflation index, climbed 0.4% in February, the central bank said. “The effects of exchange rate adjustments will begin to be felt strongly starting in March, with strong rises in food, clothing and electronic equipment prices,” says Asdrubal Oliveros, director of ECOANALITICA consultancy. “Devaluation effects were largely absent in February statistics.” (Bloomberg, 03-07-2013; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-07/venezuela-inflation-rises-less-than-expected-after-devaluation.html)

Quality of life improved in UN index under Chavez
Venezuelans’ quality of life improved at the third-fastest pace worldwide and income inequality narrowed during the presidency of Hugo Chavez, who tapped the world’s biggest oil reserves to aid the poor. Venezuela moved up seven spots to 73 out of 187 countries in the United Nation’s index of human development from 2006 to 2011, a period that covers the latter half of Chavez’s rule, which ended with his death March 5. That progress trails only Cuba and Hong Kong in the index, which is based on life expectancy, health and education levels. (Bloomberg, 03-07-2013; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-07/venezuelans-quality-of-life-improved-in-un-index-under-chavez.html)


Commodities
PDVSA says Venezuela oil industry normal after Chavez death
The oil industry was operating normally and no disruption was expected following the death of President Hugo Chavez, state oil company PDVSA said, calling for calm in the nation. The death of the socialist leader is unlikely to have a big impact on Venezuela's oil sector in the short term, with key projects expected to stay on track if his preferred successor wins elections due to be called in the next 30 days. An opposition victory could eventually lead to an increase in foreign investment, but analysts said this could take years to filter through. (Reuters, 03-05-2013; http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/06/us-venezuela-chavez-oil-idUSBRE92501420130306)


Logistics & Transport

Venezuelan ports maintain normal operations
The Minister of Popular Power for Water and air transport and President of Bolivarian Ports (Bolipuertos), CA. Elsa Gutierrez Graffe, reports all commercial ports in the country remain normal operations. More in Spanish: (Bolipuertos, 03-06-2013; http://www.bolipuertos.gob.ve/noticia.aspx?id=6888)


Politics

Election Board ready for Presidential elections as of April 14th
Sources within the Elections Board say they will be able to hold elections in order to choose a replacement for President Hugo Chavez, for the 2013-2019 term, from and including Sunday, April 14th. More in Spanish: (El Universal, 03-08-2013; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/130308/cne-listo-para-presidenciales-a-partir-del-14-de-abril)

Chávez's body will be embalmed
President Hugo Chavez will be seen by his people for seven days. Vice President Nicolas Maduro announced the remains will be placed at the Museum at the location he occupied during the February 4, 1992, coup attempt. "The body will be embalmed Chavez so it can be seen forever in a glass case," he said. More in Spanish: (AVN, 03-07-2013; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/pueblo-tributar%C3%A1-para-siempre-ch%C3%A1vez; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/130307/president-chavezs-body-will-be-embalmed)

Chavez lies in state as grieving for Socialist leader builds
Venezuelans are paying their respects to former President Hugo Chavez today; filing past an open casket in a military academy after his body was carried through the streets of Caracas yesterday. Chavez’s body is laying in state in the capital until a funeral tomorrow. Among leaders arriving early and attending a wake last night were Argentina’s Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner and Bolivia’s Evo Morales. “Chavez lives, the fight continues,” officials including Vice President Nicolas Maduro shouted in unison as they walked past the flag-draped casket holding the socialist leader. Maduro, in his first decree as acting president, declared seven days of national mourning, and stores closed across the capital as the shock of Chavez’s March 5 passing after a two- year battle with cancer settles in. He has not yet been sworn in as acting president, and Venezuelan state media is continuing to refer to him as Vice President. (Bloomberg, 03-07-2013; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-07/chavez-lies-in-state-as-grieving-for-socialist-leader-builds-2-.html; Veneconomy, 03-06-2013; http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=33965&idc=1; http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=33966&idc=1; Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/07/venezuela-chavez-idUSL1N0BZ5E920130307; The Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=703214&CategoryId=10718; Fox News, http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/03/06/chavez-hand-picked-successor-takes-command-in-venezuela/)

33 presidents in Venezuela to bid farewell to Chavez
33 heads of state and government are in attendance at the memorial service for, Hugo Chavez, says Foreign Affairs Minister Elias Jaua. (AVN, 03-07-2013; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/33-presidents-come-venezuela-bid-farewell-chavez)

Hugo Chavez - socialist showman who transformed Venezuela
Both marked a quasi-religious "return" for the socialist ex-soldier whom supporters loved with messianic fervor - first from a 2002 coup that saw him jailed on a tiny Caribbean island, and then from cancer surgery in Cuba in June 2011.
Chavez died in hospital on Tuesday, finally succumbing to the cancer after four operations in Cuba. His death ended 14 years of charismatic, volatile rule that turned him into a major world figure. Ever the showman, Chavez would jump from theology to jokes and from Marxist rhetoric to baseball metaphors in building an almost cult-like devotion among followers. Throughout his presidency, he projected himself in religious, nationalistic and radical terms as Venezuela's savior, and it largely worked. While his foes reviled him and portrayed him as a boorish dictator, Chavez was hailed by supporters as a champion of the poor and he won four presidential elections. (Reuters, 03-06-2013; http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/06/us-venezuela-chavez-obituary-idUSBRE92418X20130306)

Maduro cries, ‘I am Chávez,’ as U.S. seeks policy clues
In the weeks leading up to his mentor’s death, Vice President Nicolás Maduro’s imitations of President Hugo Chávez became ever more apparent. He has taken on many of Mr. Chávez’s vocal patterns and speech rhythms, and has eagerly repeated the slogan “I am Chávez” to crowds of supporters. He has mimicked the president’s favorite themes — belittling the political opposition and warning of mysterious plots to destabilize the country, even implying that the United States was behind Mr. Chávez’s cancer. He has also adopted the president’s clothes, walking beside his coffin in an enormous procession on Wednesday wearing a windbreaker with the national colors of yellow, blue and red, as Mr. Chávez often did. (The New York Times, 03-06-2013; http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/07/world/americas/a-leaders-cry-in-venezuela-i-am-chavez.html)

U.S. desires better relations with Venezuela
We’ve said from the beginning that we think the best way to move ahead in this relationship is twofold. One is to have conversations on things where I think there may be mutual interest in moving ahead, and there are clearly some areas in which we think that could be possible – counternarcotics, counterterrorism, economic or commercial issues including energy. But the second part of this is – and we’ve always been clear on this as well, I think – that we are going to continue to speak out when we believe there are issues of democratic principle that need to be talked about, that need to be highlighted. (The Latin American Herald Tribune, 03-07-2013; http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=703166&CategoryId=10717; CNN, http://edition.cnn.com/2013/03/05/politics/venezuela-chavez-u-s-/index.html?iref=allsearch; Fox News, http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/03/06/obama-us-supports-venezuelan-people-as-begin-new-chapter-after-chavez/)


The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.

Tuesday, March 5, 2013

March 05, 2013


Economics & Finance

Experts lower GDP growth projection to 2% and more adjustments are on the way, according to Credit Suisse analysts who recently visited Caracas. Their conclusion is that "current political uncertainty seriously hinders economic policy making and there is growing pressure on FOREX supply". It adds: "Recent devaluation of the official exchange rate was timid, has not relieved pressures on the economy, and is unlikely that there will be other efficient and necessary fiscal and monetary policies". Credit Suisse says one of the mistakes made was not providing an alternate vehicle for FOREX transactions, which has raised the parallel market. More in Spanish: (El Nacional, 03-05-2013; http://www.el-nacional.com/)

No FOREX relief in sight as long as Giordani remains
According to Credit Suisse experts there is no alternate system for legal FOREX sales in sight as long as Finance and Planning Minister Jorge Giordani remains in office. They believe "Giordani will remain at his post and keep his influence on key economic policy decisions, if and when Chavez remains President." It says his departure is "too great a risk for current equilibrium within chavismo". More in Spanish: (El Nacional, 03-05-2013; http://www.el-nacional.com/)

FOREX allocation restricted on finished products
Requests for importing finished products have been restricted by the "Supreme Authority in charge of Optimizing the Exchange System", after Planning and Finance Minister Jorge Giordani demanded a review of applications pending from 2012 to determine which will receive the prior 4.30 per U$D rate. More in Spanish: (El Nacional, 03-05-2013; http://www.el-nacional.com/)

Government and PDVSA consolidated debt rose to U$D 144.8 billion in 2012, according to figures from the Ministry for Finance and Planning. This is up from U$D 114.1 billion in 2011, an increase of 27%. These figures do not include Chinese loans or PDVSA's debt with the Central Bank, which would make the number considerably higher. More in Spanish: (El Universal, 03-05-2013; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/130305/deudas-del-gobierno-central-y-pdvsa-suman-1448-millardos)

Scarcities are due to lower productivity, not increased demand
According to DATANALISIS President Luis Vicente León says supply problems are not due to increasing demand but rather stem from lowered production by State controlled companies and fewer imports. The Government has been accusing private industry of lowering production in order to receive price adjustments, but private sector capacity is lower due to lack of raw material, FOREX scarcity, delays in permits and bottlenecks in port procedures. More in Spanish: (El Universal, 03-05-2013; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/130305/mercado-sufre-la-baja-oferta-de-empresas-del-estado)

Inflation pressures Government to raise the minimum wage. Any such decision would also increase liabilities with State employees and have a negative impact on the nation's economy. More in Spanish: (El Mundo, 03-05-2013; http://www.elmundo.com.ve/Noticias/Economia/Laboral/Gobierno-analiza-anticipar-aumento-del-salario-min.aspx)

CORPOELEC debt rises, bills remain unpaid 18 months
According to Central Bank data, the National Electricity Corporation (CORPOELEC) indebtedness rose 25%. CORPELEC now owes local contractors U$D 8 billion at the prior exchange rate and some bills have gone unpaid for 18 months. More in Spanish: (El Nacional, 03-05-2013; http://www.el-nacional.com/


Commodities

26 days with no aluminum production, and 7 with no iron
For 26 days VENALUM's aluminum plant has been unable to supply domestic metal transformers weeks; and SIDOR has now been 7 days without receiving iron ore from FERROMINERA ORINOCO,  and is eating up inventories. At VENALUM production is down to minimum service in order to avoid damages. Private transforming plants are now down to "zero". It is now reported that the strike FERROMINERA ORINOCO ended yesterday with an agreement between the company and workers; and that tensions are now lower at VENALUM as talks have begun. More in Spanish: (Tal Cual, 03-04-2013; http://www.talcualdigital.com/index.html and  Últimas Noticias; http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/actualidad/economia/suspenden-paro-en-ferrominera-y-venalum.aspx)

Minister claims over 25,000 tons of alleged hoarded food is available to the public
Trade Minister Edmee Betancourt says a total 25,774 tons of food she claims was hoarded by private business have been seized and placed at the disposal of the public. (AVN, 03-02-2013; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/over-25000-tons-hoarded-food-made-available-people)


International Trade

CASA imported 983 tons of frozen beef for PDVAL and MERCAL. The shipment arrived in Puerto Cabello from Puerto Limón, Costa Rica. 11 laden vessels remain at bay in Puerto Cabello. More in Spanish:  (Notitarde, 03-04-2013; http://www.notitarde.com/La-Costa/Casa-importo-983-toneladas-de-carne-congelada-para-surtir-Pdval-y-Mercal/2013/03/04/169446; El Carabobeño, http://www.el-carabobeno.com/impreso/articulo/51873/-al-puerto-carabobeo-arribaron-938-toneladas-de-carne-congelada


Politics

Maduro boots U.S. attaché, suggests Chavez's cancer may have been "innoculated"
Venezuela accused its domestic and foreign enemies of "attacking" ailing President Hugo Chavez and expelled a U.S. Embassy attaché accused of seeking military support for a plot against the government, according to Vice President Nicolas Maduro. David Delmonaco, an Air Force attaché for the U.S. Embassy in Caracas, was expelled "for being implicated in (a) conspiratorial plan," the country's information ministry said.  A senior Obama administration official told CNN that the United States "denies the charge that the air attaché, or anyone else in our embassy or the U.S. government, was plotting against the Venezuelan government." US officials expressed sympathy for President Chavez. Maduro also said there are "strong indications" that Chavez himself, fighting a battle with cancer, was somehow infected by outsiders. Maduro's comments came after he met with the country's top officials about Chavez's worsening health condition. These are the "most difficult moments we have experienced" since Chavez' surgery on December 11, he said. Maduro said a more detailed report on the president's condition is forthcoming. (CNN, 03-05-2013; http://edition.cnn.com/2013/03/05/world/americas/venezuela-chavez-main/index.html?iref=allsearch; El Universal, 03-05-2013; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/130305/venezuelan-government-evicts-us-defense-attache; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/130305/us-government-expresses-sympathy-for-president-chavez)

Chávez has new infection, breathing problems worsen
An official communiqué just out says President Chávez now faces a "new and severe respiratory infection” and his "general health remains critical". Communications and Information Minister Jesús Villegas dispatched written statement from the Military Hospital in Caracas saying "there is deterioration of the respiratory system" and adding that the President is receiving "high impact chemotherapy, among other treatment." (The Wall Street Journal, 03-04-2013;  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323494504578341151326106178.html; and more in Spanish: AVN; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/presidente-ch%C3%A1vez-enfrenta-nueva-infecci%C3%B3n-respiratoria; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/130305/presidente-chavez-presenta-nueva-y-severa-infeccion)

Venezuelans protest as Maduro says Chavez in chemotherapy
Venezuelans marched in Caracas and other cities yesterday; demanding more information on President Hugo Chavez’s health after the government said he’s undergoing chemotherapy following cancer surgery. Vice President Nicolas Maduro, who has been running the country in the self-declared socialist’s absence, said March 1 that Chavez is undergoing chemotherapy after surgery for an undisclosed type of cancer in Cuba more than two months ago. Maduro said Chavez is in “good spirits,” in spite of the severity of the treatment. (Bloomberg, 04-03-2013; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-04/venezuelans-protest-as-maduro-says-chavez-getting-chemotherapy.html; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/130304/demonstrators-demand-the-truth-about-venezuelan-president-chavezs-heal; Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/03/us-venezuela-chavez-idUSBRE9220BG20130303; Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=698757&CategoryId=10717; The Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/opposition-protests-in-venezuela-demanding-details-about-health-of-president-chavez/2013/03/03/43f42e8c-8422-11e2-a80b-3edc779b676f_story.html; Fox News, http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/03/02/venezuela-says-chavez-receiving-chemotherapy/)

Opposition discussing single ballot option, Capriles nomination
Talks are underway within the Democratic Unity Conference on conditions placed by some political parties before again endorsing Henrique Capriles Radonski as the only opposition presidential candidate. Sources within the Conference say it is "almost a done deed" that Capriles's party, Primero Justicia will now back the proposal for a single opposition presence on the ballot. Capriles himself is said to favor the proposal. The issue of no reelection depends on the mandate´s duration, and there seems to be a positive stance on creating a broader campaign command. More in Spanish: (El Nacional, 03-05-2013; http://www.el-nacional.com/)

Venezuela says it’s tracking opposition leader in U.S.
The bruising and often bizarre world of Venezuelan politics would seem to be a long way from New York City, but a top official here said this weekend that the government of President Hugo Chávez was tracking the movements of a prominent opposition politician while he was on a trip to Manhattan. “We have him closely monitored,” Vice President Nicolás Maduro said of opposition leader, Henrique Capriles Radonski. “I have all the data, exactly where he is in Manhattan, in New York, at this moment,” Mr. Maduro said on government-run television, looking at his cell phone as if checking information sent to him in a text message or an e-mail. (The New York Times, 03-03-2013; http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/04/world/americas/venezuela-says-its-tracking-opposition-leader-in-us.html?_r=0)


The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.