Economics &
Finance
Experts lower GDP growth projection
to 2% and more adjustments are on the way, according to Credit Suisse analysts who recently
visited Caracas. Their conclusion is that "current political uncertainty seriously hinders economic policy making
and there is growing pressure on FOREX supply". It adds: "Recent devaluation of the official exchange
rate was timid, has not relieved pressures on the economy, and is unlikely that
there will be other efficient and necessary fiscal and monetary policies".
Credit Suisse says one of the mistakes made was not providing an alternate
vehicle for FOREX transactions, which has raised the parallel market. More in
Spanish: (El Nacional, 03-05-2013; http://www.el-nacional.com/)
No FOREX relief in sight as long as
Giordani remains
According to Credit Suisse experts there is no alternate
system for legal FOREX sales in sight as long as Finance and Planning Minister
Jorge Giordani remains in office. They believe "Giordani will remain at his post and keep his influence on key economic
policy decisions, if and when Chavez remains President." It says his
departure is "too great a risk for
current equilibrium within chavismo". More in Spanish: (El Nacional, 03-05-2013;
http://www.el-nacional.com/)
FOREX allocation restricted on
finished products
Requests for importing finished products have been
restricted by the "Supreme Authority in charge of Optimizing the Exchange
System", after Planning and Finance Minister Jorge Giordani demanded a
review of applications pending from 2012 to determine which will receive the prior
4.30 per U$D rate. More in Spanish: (El Nacional, 03-05-2013; http://www.el-nacional.com/)
Government and PDVSA consolidated
debt rose to U$D 144.8 billion in 2012, according to figures from the Ministry for Finance and
Planning. This is up from U$D 114.1 billion in 2011, an increase of 27%. These
figures do not include Chinese loans or PDVSA's debt with the Central Bank,
which would make the number considerably higher. More in Spanish: (El Universal,
03-05-2013; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/130305/deudas-del-gobierno-central-y-pdvsa-suman-1448-millardos)
Scarcities are due to lower
productivity, not increased demand
According to DATANALISIS President Luis Vicente León says
supply problems are not due to increasing demand but rather stem from lowered
production by State controlled companies and fewer imports. The Government has
been accusing private industry of lowering production in order to receive price
adjustments, but private sector capacity is lower due to lack of raw material,
FOREX scarcity, delays in permits and bottlenecks in port procedures. More in
Spanish: (El Universal, 03-05-2013; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/130305/mercado-sufre-la-baja-oferta-de-empresas-del-estado)
Inflation pressures Government to
raise the minimum wage. Any
such decision would also increase liabilities with State employees and have a
negative impact on the nation's economy. More in Spanish: (El Mundo, 03-05-2013; http://www.elmundo.com.ve/Noticias/Economia/Laboral/Gobierno-analiza-anticipar-aumento-del-salario-min.aspx)
CORPOELEC debt rises, bills remain
unpaid 18 months
According to Central Bank data, the National Electricity Corporation
(CORPOELEC) indebtedness rose 25%. CORPELEC now owes local contractors U$D 8
billion at the prior exchange rate and some bills have gone unpaid for 18
months. More in Spanish: (El Nacional, 03-05-2013; http://www.el-nacional.com/)
Commodities
26 days with no aluminum production,
and 7 with no iron
For 26 days VENALUM's aluminum plant has been unable to
supply domestic metal transformers weeks; and SIDOR has now been 7 days without
receiving iron ore from FERROMINERA ORINOCO,
and is eating up inventories. At VENALUM production is down to minimum
service in order to avoid damages. Private transforming plants are now down to "zero". It is now reported that the
strike FERROMINERA ORINOCO ended yesterday with an agreement between the
company and workers; and that tensions are now lower at VENALUM as talks have
begun. More in Spanish: (Tal Cual, 03-04-2013; http://www.talcualdigital.com/index.html and Últimas Noticias; http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/actualidad/economia/suspenden-paro-en-ferrominera-y-venalum.aspx)
Minister claims over 25,000 tons of alleged hoarded food is
available to the public
Trade Minister Edmee Betancourt says a total 25,774 tons of food she
claims was hoarded by private business have been seized and placed at the
disposal of the public. (AVN, 03-02-2013; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/over-25000-tons-hoarded-food-made-available-people)
International Trade
Politics
Maduro boots U.S. attaché, suggests
Chavez's cancer may have been "innoculated"
Venezuela accused its domestic and foreign enemies of
"attacking" ailing
President Hugo Chavez and expelled a U.S. Embassy attaché accused of seeking
military support for a plot against the government, according to Vice President
Nicolas Maduro. David Delmonaco, an Air Force attaché for the U.S. Embassy in
Caracas, was expelled "for being
implicated in (a) conspiratorial plan," the country's information
ministry said. A senior Obama
administration official told CNN that the United States "denies the charge that the air attaché, or
anyone else in our embassy or the U.S. government, was plotting against the
Venezuelan government." US officials expressed sympathy for President
Chavez. Maduro also said there are "strong
indications" that Chavez himself, fighting a battle with cancer, was
somehow infected by outsiders. Maduro's comments came after he met with the
country's top officials about Chavez's worsening health condition. These are
the "most difficult moments we have
experienced" since Chavez' surgery on December 11, he said. Maduro
said a more detailed report on the president's condition is forthcoming. (CNN, 03-05-2013; http://edition.cnn.com/2013/03/05/world/americas/venezuela-chavez-main/index.html?iref=allsearch; El Universal, 03-05-2013; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/130305/venezuelan-government-evicts-us-defense-attache; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/130305/us-government-expresses-sympathy-for-president-chavez)
Chávez has new infection, breathing
problems worsen
An official communiqué just out says President Chávez now
faces a "new and severe respiratory infection”
and his "general health remains
critical". Communications and Information Minister Jesús Villegas
dispatched written statement from the Military Hospital in Caracas saying
"there is deterioration of the
respiratory system" and adding that the President is receiving "high impact chemotherapy, among other
treatment." (The Wall Street Journal, 03-04-2013; http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323494504578341151326106178.html;
and more in Spanish: AVN; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/presidente-ch%C3%A1vez-enfrenta-nueva-infecci%C3%B3n-respiratoria;
El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/130305/presidente-chavez-presenta-nueva-y-severa-infeccion)
Venezuelans protest as Maduro says Chavez in chemotherapy
Venezuelans marched in Caracas and other cities yesterday;
demanding more information on President Hugo Chavez’s health after the
government said he’s undergoing chemotherapy following cancer surgery. Vice
President Nicolas Maduro, who has been running the country in the self-declared
socialist’s absence, said March 1 that Chavez is undergoing chemotherapy after
surgery for an undisclosed type of cancer in Cuba more than two months ago.
Maduro said Chavez is in “good spirits,”
in spite of the severity of the treatment. (Bloomberg, 04-03-2013; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-04/venezuelans-protest-as-maduro-says-chavez-getting-chemotherapy.html;
El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/130304/demonstrators-demand-the-truth-about-venezuelan-president-chavezs-heal;
Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/03/us-venezuela-chavez-idUSBRE9220BG20130303;
Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=698757&CategoryId=10717;
The Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/opposition-protests-in-venezuela-demanding-details-about-health-of-president-chavez/2013/03/03/43f42e8c-8422-11e2-a80b-3edc779b676f_story.html;
Fox News, http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/03/02/venezuela-says-chavez-receiving-chemotherapy/)
Opposition discussing single ballot
option, Capriles nomination
Talks are underway within the Democratic Unity Conference
on conditions placed by some political parties before again endorsing Henrique
Capriles Radonski as the only opposition presidential candidate. Sources within
the Conference say it is "almost a
done deed" that Capriles's party, Primero Justicia will now back the
proposal for a single opposition presence on the ballot. Capriles himself is
said to favor the proposal. The issue of no reelection depends on the mandate´s
duration, and there seems to be a positive stance on creating a broader
campaign command. More in Spanish: (El Nacional, 03-05-2013; http://www.el-nacional.com/)
Venezuela says it’s tracking opposition
leader in U.S.
The bruising and often bizarre world of Venezuelan politics would seem
to be a long way from New York City, but a top official here said this weekend
that the government of President Hugo Chávez was tracking the movements of a
prominent opposition politician while he was on a trip to Manhattan. “We have him closely monitored,” Vice
President Nicolás Maduro said of opposition leader, Henrique Capriles Radonski.
“I have all the data, exactly where he is
in Manhattan, in New York, at this moment,” Mr. Maduro said on
government-run television, looking at his cell phone as if checking information
sent to him in a text message or an e-mail. (The New York Times, 03-03-2013; http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/04/world/americas/venezuela-says-its-tracking-opposition-leader-in-us.html?_r=0)The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.
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