Venezuelan Daily Brief

Published in association with The DVA Group and The Selinger Group, the Venezuelan Daily Brief provides bi-weekly summaries of key news items affecting bulk commodities and the general business environment in Venezuela.

Showing posts with label Credit Suisse. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Credit Suisse. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 29, 2016

March 29, 2016


Logistics & Transport

 

PDVSA claims operations are normal at main oil port

State oil company PDVSA says it guarantees that operations are normal at its main oil port, adding it had provided "uninterrupted" services to an average of 56 tankers per month. Reuters had reported heavy backlogs in tanker loadings at the port of Jose, which a union leader and a legislator said were the result of technical problems with loading arms. "PDVSA guarantees normal loading and dispatch at the (port of Jose)," the company wrote on its Twitter account. The company said that 70% of the production exported from Venezuela, equivalent to around 1.5 million barrels per day, are loaded at Jose. Reuters had reported that some 70 tankers were anchored around state-run PDVSA's ports in Venezuela and the Caribbean, most of them waiting to load oil for exports and also to discharge imported crude and products, according to Thomson Reuters vessel tracking data. (Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-venezuela-backlog-idUSKCN0WS00V; http://www.reuters.com/article/oil-venezuela-backlog-idUSL2N16W1C7)

 

 

Oil & Energy

 

Ex-officials at Venezuela's PDVSA pleaded guilty in bribe case: U.S.

Three former officials at Venezuela's state oil company have pleaded guilty to U.S. charges related to a scheme by two businessmen to corruptly secure energy contracts, the U.S. Justice Department announced. The former officials at Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA) pleaded guilty under seal in December to conspiracy to commit money laundering. Their pleas were unsealed by a federal judge in Houston on Tuesday. The ex-PDVSA officials are Jose Luis Ramos Castillo, 38; Christian Javier Maldonado Barillas, 39; and Alfonzo Eliezer Gravina Munoz, 53. The U.S. Justice Department said each has admitted to accepting bribes from two Venezuelan businessmen, Roberto Rincon and Abraham Jose Shiera Bastidas, who were charged in December with violating the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. (Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-usa-corruption-idUSKCN0WP1YC; Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2408655&CategoryId=10717)

 

 

Commodities

 

Guayana basic industries at minimum operations due to energy crisis

According to union leaders, Guayana’s basic industries had never reached a level of activity as low as they currently operate at, due to lack of spare parts, maintenance, and the Guri dam’s inability to generate electricity due to the severe drought. Henry Arias, Secretary General of the union at the ALCASA aluminum works reports the plant is working at 15.5% capacity. More in Spanish: (El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/mundo/Empresas-basicas-Guayana-trabajan-energetica_0_818918182.html)

 

Debt with TETRA PAK curbs liquid milk supply

Roger Figueroa, President of the Venezuelan Dairy Chamber (CAVILAC) reports that a US$ 70 million long overdue debt with TETRA Pak is limiting the supply of packing material. More in Spanish: (El Mundo, http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/economia/gremios/deuda-con-tetra-pak-frena-abastecimiento-de-leche.aspx#ixzz44HmnEx9O)

 

GENERAL MILLS exits Venezuela

GENERAL MILLS, the company behind Cheerios and Häagen-Dazs ice cream, has called time on its operations in Venezuela.  The US company said it has sold its subsidiary in the country to an unnamed third party in a move that will leave it with a US$ 35m charge. GENERAL MILLS’s exit follows that of bleach maker CLOROX, which took a charge of more than US$ 600m to end its operations there. Venezuela’s controls and the government’s frequently shifting currency policy has proved a headache for US multinationals, who have struggled to take cash out of the country. Venezuela, which is grappling with runaway inflation, a weak oil price and crumbling tax revenues, accounted for less than 1% of GENERAL MILLS’s net sales, the company said in its annual report. (Financial Times: http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/03/23/cheerios-maker-general-mills-exits-venezuela/)

 

 

Economy & Finance

 

CREDIT SUISSE projects Venezuela’s 2016 inflation at 326.5%, GDP contraction at 6.5%

CREDIT SUISSE is currently projecting that Venezuela’s 2016 inflation rate will hit 326.5% and social conditions here will worsen over the next months. It also says the contraction in Venezuela’s GDP – projected by them at 6.5% - will be one of the worst in the world, hit by FOREX scarcity, three-digit inflation, and an environment of political and economic uncertainty. More in Spanish: (Notitarde, http://www.notitarde.com/Economia/Proyectan-inflacion-de-3265-para-Venezuela-este-ano-2016-2642351/2016/03/27/924468/; El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/economia/Credit-Suisse-proyecta-inflacion-Venezuela_0_818318297.html)

 

Total Venezuelan revenues at US$ 147 million in January-February 2016

President Nicolas Maduro has reported that US$ 147 million entered this year in January and February.  He explained that before the drop in oil prices, US$ 3.5 billion used to flow in the country. He spelled out that revenues last January amounted to US$ 77 million, down to US$ 70 million in February. (El Universal: http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/160324/venezuelan-revenues-at-usd-147-million-in-january-february-2016)

 

Venezuela continues to raid its reserves to pay its debts, political transition anticipated

Venezuela has not released its gold holdings since November of last year when they were US$ 10.97 billion, but a Swiss Federal Customs Administration Report reveals that Venezuela shipped 11,982 kilograms of gold worth US$ 456 million to Switzerland in February. And a Caracas online newspaper managed to get ahold of an Air France bill of lading showing that another 12, 561 kilograms of gold bars were flown out of Venezuela just two weeks ago on March 8, meaning at least another half-billion has left the country this month. The famed market watcher Dennis Gartman writes that “there is news that Venezuela…a country that is obviously in very, very serious financial straits… has been an aggressive and consistent seller [of gold].” He continued, “Venezuela has been selling gold since mid-year last year, but the pace of its selling…as evidenced by the decline in its official reserves…has accelerated of late. The recent run-up in prices has given the Central Bank there and the lunatic government in Caracas a wind-fall that they have apparently not been willing to pass up.” While March was a light month in terms of interest on its foreign bond debt – under US$ 300 million – April’s bond payments ramp up to US$ 782 million, with just under US$ 1 billion in May. The Central Bank president has confirmed it had been carrying out gold swaps. "It's normal, all central banks do this," said Nelson Merentes, adding that the operations have time frames of three to four years with multiple banks, which he did not identify. "As part of our strategy, the (central bank's) board of directors has decided to carry out swaps." Siobhan Morden, of NOMURA Securities, says today that evidence of continued economic stress is the leading indicator of “an irreversible process toward political transition.” She notes February’s 514% year-over-year increase in inflation, and adds: “We continue to reiterate that it has to get worse before it gets better but the intensity of the crisis reaffirms our view of a political transition and an economic transition that would argue for much higher potential recovery value.” (Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/venezuela-gold-switzerland-idUSL2N16U1UR; BARRON’s: http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2016/03/24/2-venezuela-experts-on-gold-sales-bond-risk-whats-next/; Latinvest: http://www.scribd.com/doc/286044491/Latinvest-Venezuela-Report-Bond-Debts-20-October-2015; Kitco News: http://www.kitco.com/news/2016-03-23/Venezuela-s-Woes-Weighing-on-Gold-Dennis-Gartman.html)

 

Switzerland to hand Venezuela oil firm bank records to U.S.

In a widening corruption probe into Venezuela's state oil company by U.S. authorities, Swiss regulators have agreed to provide U.S. prosecutors with records from at least 18 banks relating to the oil firm. The requests for information from two separate U.S. authorities were part of their investigations into alleged money laundering and corruption in connection with the conclusion of energy contracts with Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA), Switzerland's Federal Office of Justice (FOJ) said. U.S. authorities say they have traced over US$ 1 billion to a conspiracy involving a Venezuelan magnate who allegedly paid bribes to obtain contracts from PDVSA. They are separately investing representatives of Venezuelan energy company DERWICK Associates, which has done business with PDVSA, based on the FOJ's statements. (Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-pdvsa-corruption-switzerland-idUSKCN0WR0X0; Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-24/swiss-banks-land-in-middle-of-money-laundering-probe-again)

 

Central Bank places securities for VEB 15 billion to drain more liquidity

The Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) has placed VEB 15 billion (US$ 1.5 billion at the official exchange rate of VEB 10 per US dollar) in special absorption operations. The term for placement of securities is 56 days at a 7% interest rate and a minimum negotiated amount of VEB 10,000 (US$ 1,000). The auction (at 100%), which was scheduled for March 22 this year for public and private sectors, aimed at freezing a part of excess liquidity of the market to help control inflationary effects. Venezuela's financial bodies have been conducting non-stop this kind of operations to control over the currency in circulation in the country. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/160328/bcv-places-securities-for-veb-15-billion-to-drain-more-liquidity)

 

 

Politics and International Affairs

 

63.6 % polled say Maduro must leave office this year, 90.9% call economic situation negative.

The most recent poll by DATANALISIS reveals that 63.4% of all Venezuelans polled disapprove of President Nicolás Maduro’s administration and believe his term should end in 2016; 29.3% want him to serve his full term to 2019. 90.9% of those polled see the economic situation as negative. 52.1% of those consulted say they would vote to revoke Maduro´s mandate in a referendum while his total approval rating was 33.1%. A recall referendum must be formally requested by at least 20% of almost 19 million voters and votes for him to leave must be more than almost 7.5 million votes for him in the 2013 election. DATANALISIS projects estimate at least 7.49 million people would vote to dismiss Maduro. Henrique Capriles, who lost to Maduro in the 2013 presidential elections and is leading the drive for the President’s recall, heads the opposition in popular support. More in Spanish: (Infolatam, http://www.infolatam.com/2016/03/27/un-636-de-venezolanos-encuestados-dice-maduro-debe-dejar-el-poder-este-ano/; Notitarde, http://www.notitarde.com/Economia/909-percibe-la-situacion-economica-como-negativa/2016/03/27/923333)

 

Pope Francis calls for talks, mutual respect in Venezuela

Pope Francis urged Venezuelans to hold talks and collaborate with each other. During the delivery of his paschal message from the central balcony of Saint Peter's Basilica, Vatican, the pontiff requested that Jesus Christ's love message "be conveyed even more to the Venezuelan people, amid the hard times facing them, as well as to those who have in their hands the country's destiny, to work for the common good through dialogue and collaboration".
Francis expects that "the culture of joining, justice and mutual respect be promoted, which is the only thing that may guarantee the spiritual and material welfare of (Venezuelan) citizens."
(El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/160328/pope-francis-calls-for-talks-mutual-respect-in-venezuela)

 

Maduro claims Obama heads plan to dominate Latin America again

Following US President Barack Obama’s visits to Cuba and Argentina, Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro is claiming that Obama heads up an “imperial strategy” to once again dominate Latin America and the Caribbean by “overthrowing” governments such as that of Dilma Rousseff in Brazil or seeking to change others, like Venezuela. He claims that the “strategy” includes “combating” “honest leaders” such as Rafael Correa in Ecuador, conducting smear campaigns against Nicaragua’s Daniel Ortega and Argentina’s former president Cristina Fernández. But, he added, “we must all make great corrections within the wear and tear of governing Venezuela for 17 years.” More in Spanish: (Infolatam, http://www.infolatam.com/2016/03/25/maduro-afirma-que-obama-encabeza-plan-para-volver-a-dominar-america-latina/)

 

Top court reviews the constitutionality of Central Bank Law reform, a new clash looms with legislature

President Nicolas Maduro has sent the reform of the Law of the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) to the Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) so that the country's top court may assess the constitutionality of the bill, passed on March 3 by the National Assembly (AN). The Congress' move came three months after Maduro enacted, via enabling law, the BCV's law reform. National Assembly authorities have ordered publication of the approved bill in light of no response from the Executive within 10 days.  (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/160328/venezuelas-top-court-assesses-constitutionality-of-bcv-law-reform; and more in Spanish: El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/politica/Parlamento-promulgo-Ley-BCV-Ejecutivo_0_819518327.html)

 

Ruling party politician slain, Colombia rejects baseless charges

A supporter of Venezuela’s ruling leftist PSUV party who served as an alternate in the legislature of the western state of Tachira was gunned down in a town on the Colombian border and his associates are pointing the finger at paramilitaries based in the neighboring country. Tachira’s PSUV governor, Lieutenant Jose Vielma Mora, was quick to refer to the gunmen who killed Cesar Vera as “assassins, terrorists who hate the people” and linked the shooters to former Colombian President Alvaro Uribe. The security commissioner in Tachira, Ramon Cabeza, said Vera, 40, was the victim of a “paramilitary group.” Colombia’s Foreign Ministry has issued a statement rejecting the accusation and asked Vielma to show proof and refrain from branding inhabitants of the border area. William Villamizar, Governor of Colombia’s adjoining Norte de Santander department said the Tachira Governor should not issue charges “without prior investigations”. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2408609&CategoryId=10717; and more in Spanish: Caracol: http://caracol.com.co/emisora/2016/03/27/cucuta/1459104042_087851.html)

 

Dominican Republic antinarcotics authority slams judge for ordering release of suspects

The Dominican Republic’s National Drugs Control Agency (DNCD) has lashed out at an interim judge there for releasing five Venezuelans arrested at La Romana International Airport, with 359 kilos of cocaine. The surprising release order for the Venezuelans is the latest scandal involving an interim judge in drug trafficking and money laundering cases, where bribes are suspected. The defendants were arrested by National Investigations Dept. (DNI), Justice Ministry officials and antinarcotics (DNCD) agents, which confiscated a Cessna C404, Barquisimeto, Venezuela registry YV2708. The drug was in 349 bricks in three suitcases and two bags hidden on the plane. The DNCD said it was "outraged" by the ruling handed down by La Romana (east) interim judge Aristida Mercedes to release the suspects without bond. The La Romana Office of the Prosecutor on Monday said the five Venezuelans charged with are still in custody. Venezuela’s Prosecutor General has announced that three Bolivarian National Guard sergeants have been detained at Barquisimeto’s airport in connection with the shipment. And Miami’s El Nuevo Herald journalist Antonio María Delgado reports that diplomatic pressure by Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was behind the release order in the Dominican Republic. (Dominican Today: http://www.dominicantoday.com/dr/local/2016/3/28/58712/Despite-judges-ruling-Venezuelans-in-369K-cocaine-case-still-in-jail; and more in Spanish: http://www.elnuevoherald.com/noticias/mundo/america-latina/venezuela-es/article68531672.html#storylink=cpy; Acento, http://acento.com.do/2016/actualidad/8335531-periodista-afirma-que-maduro-presiono-por-libertad-de-venezolanos-acusados-de-narcotrafico-en-rd/)

 

Police capture 3 for airport murder of Egyptian visitor

Interior Minister General Gustavo Gonzalez has reported the capture of three people suspected in the shooting death of an Egyptian man at the Maiquetía International Airport. The Prosecutor General’s Office said in a communique that the three suspects would appear in court later on Thursday. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2408531&CategoryId=10717)

 

Increased violence against minors reported in Venezuela

A rise in violent acts -including frequency and intensity- against minors in Venezuela was reported by organizations in charge of protecting human rights of children and teenagers. In fact, on March 15-18, three minors were murdered: one during an alleged shootout with police officers; other was kidnapped and killed; and a third one was mistreated and molested by his stepfather. Add to this the case of a two-month old baby who was left under a bridge by his own 18-year old mother. Carlos Trapani, a representative from the Network of Children and Teenagers' Human Rights of NGO Community Centers of Learning (CECODAP), warned that "nowadays, there is much violence and cruelty against minors." In his words, this shows the risk facing childhood and adolescence in the country. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/160326/increased-violence-against-minors-reported-in-venezuela)

 

Isturiz reveals there were almost 3 lootings daily during Easter week

Executive Vice President Aristóbulo Istúriz has revealed that there were 21 lootings, 22 kidnappings and 20 robberies at hospitals, which means there were 3 lootings and 2 robberies daily during the Easter holidays. More in Spanish: (Tal Cual Digital: http://www.talcualdigital.com/Nota/124577/aristobulo-revela-que-en-semana-santa-hubo-casi-3-saqueos-al-dia-video)

 

 

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.

 

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

December 15, 2015


Oil & Energy

 

Venezuela oil price collapses to 11-year low

Venezuela's mix of heavy oil continued tumbling this week, hitting an 11-year low as oil prices around the world collapsed on slowing demand and oversupply in the wake of OPEC's decision not to cut production. Instead, OPEC raised quotas to reflect current over-production levels. According to figures released by the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, the average price of Venezuelan crude sold by Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA) during the week ending December 11 was US$ 31.24, down US$ 2.81 from the previous week's US$ 34.05. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2401732&CategoryId=10717; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/151211/venezuelan-oil-drops-usd-281)

 

Venezuela losing out on oil exports to Cuba, PETROCARIBE and others

Economist Luis Oliveros says Venezuela should review its oil supply agreements with PETROCARIBE, China, Russia and Cuba, which cause the nation to lose out on hard income. He says oil shipped to PETROCARIBE and CUBA have been deleterious to Venezuela since they have barred PDVSA from selling its product to markets that pay in cash and promptly. Reelected legislator William Davila, of the Foreign Policy, Sovereignty and Integration Committee says all these agreements must be reviewed because “we are not in such a privileged position that we can subsidize other countries.” He said members of his Committee and of the Comptroller Committee have not had access to the agreements. Legislator Vestalia Sampedro of the Finance Committee says they too have sought to see the agreements and have gone unheeded: “There is very little transparency, they need to be reviewed, there needs to be accountability.” International affairs specialist Felix Arellano says “it is not smart to tear up international agreements, it’s irrational and inconvenient. The important thing is to review them, and understand how they have been carried out”. Congressman Davila says they do not mean to go against regional integration but adds that “what the government wanted was to gain support in international organizations such as CARICOM. Geopolitical interest prevailed over the need to integrate”. Economist Oliveros says one of the most damaging agreements over the past 10 years is PETROCARIBE due to the conditions it sets up: Oil purchases can be financed up to 80%, payable over 25 years at 1-2% interest rates and with a 2-year grace period. In addition, the part of the bill that is due in cash has been paid for in kind, such as rice and beans. Oliveros says that between 2006 and 2014 Venezuela sent PETROCARIBE an average 186,000 barrels of oil per day, for a total US$ 50 billion and has barely collected on it. “That crude could have been sold to any other customer for cash”, he says. Cuba received crude oil deliveries in exchange for health, education, culture and sport services, and analysts have not been able to find out what price oil is used for these exchanges which would add up to US$ 14 billion at market process.  Carlos Alvarez, of ECOANALÍTICA, says that although agreements with China may be positive, they are plagued by opacity in all that is being done in this area. More in Spanish: (El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/economia/Petrocaribe-Cuba-impiden-mercados-favorables_0_755924508.html)

 

 

Economy & Finance

 

CREDIT SUISSE: Venezuela on the ropes 

2016 could be a pivotal year for Venezuelan politics and economics. The opposition’s recent landslide victory in legislative elections and slim two-thirds majority in the incoming National Assembly will likely increase pressure on an already battered President Nicolas Maduro. His popular support has fallen as Venezuela has the poorest outlook for economic activity, the highest inflation and the largest fiscal deficit in our Emerging Markets coverage universe. The risk of political instability has risen. The loss could fuel greater divisions within Chavismo since it is no longer the strongest political force in the country and Venezuelans appear to be holding President Maduro more responsible for the country’s problems than they did President Hugo Chavez. Do not expect economic policy to improve in an environment of political gridlock or with the possibility of a presidential recall referendum on the horizon. Additionally, low oil prices and continued erosion of public sector assets still suggest considerable risk of a credit event in the fourth quarter of 2016, while PDVSA has another large maturity in April 2017. Frustration with economic conditions continues to wear on the population. CREDIT SUISSE is not optimistic that Venezuela’s macroeconomic imbalances will be corrected in the near term. The executive branch will probably remain empowered to make most economic decisions, and although the official exchange rates could be weakened somewhat, substantive modifications are unlikely against a more confrontational political backdrop, in our view. Both Chavismo and the opposition could be reluctant to take responsibility for enacting unpopular measures, especially with gubernatorial elections and a potential presidential recall referendum looming in 2016. Moreover, there appears to be a lack of consensus among opposition leaders regarding how to deal with the economy and the dollar-denominated debt service burden.  (CREDIT SUISSE: Full report ATTACHED.)

 

Reserves fall to lowest level in 15 years

The Central Bank’s international reserves have fallen to their lowest level of the past 15 years, at an average US$ 14.5 million, according to data published by the bank on December 10th. This level is lower than that reached after the 2002 oil strike, when it fell to US$ 14.8 billion. According to ECOANALÍTICA projection, considering liquid and non-liquid reserves, current levels can cover only 5.1 months of imports. More in Spanish: (El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/economia/Reservas-internacionales-minimo-historico-ultimos_0_756524513.html)

 

Shortages in Venezuela can be solved with 10% of incoming foreign currency

Manuel Felipe Larrazabal, President of the Venezuelan Food Industry Chamber (CAVIDEA), says that the main problem the Venezuelan food industry faces is that the supply chain "is weak, which means the industry is producing intermittently." He reports that all international suppliers have stopped granting credit lines to Venezuelan food companies, and that the State, which is "the great supervisor of the economy" still has not settled the debt food industries have accrued with international suppliers for raw material procurement. "Something that needs to be understood is that per every finished product that is imported to Venezuela, the country can manufacture five times more products, there is also employment generation, and a virtuous circle begins," he explains. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/151214/shortages-in-venezuela-can-be-solved-with-10-of-incoming-foreign-curre)

 

 

Politics and International Affairs

 

Venezuela: The fall of the myths 

The final count of the votes confirmed a super-majority (two-thirds of the seats) in the National Assembly for the opposition. The result exceeded expectations of a simple majority and proves that the market has been underestimating the probabilities of a political transition. It is now clear that it is not easy for the government to avoid an election even knowing that it will lose it. The results show that the capacity to manipulate the electoral results is limited. The campaign was neither fair nor balanced, but the government cannot disown the result. And the armed forces have proved they are not completely controlled by the government. At a tipping point, they adopted an institutional position and swung to the clearest alternative of power. Venezuelans have also demonstrated a strong pacifist attitude.   The election result vindicates the pro-vote wing of the opposition that has been consistently calling for following the electoral path and building a popular majority. This faction will likely assume the leadership of the new National Assembly.  The opposition is waiting for the government to make its move first. So far, it has not given any signal of moderation or intention to negotiate. A radicalization of the government could deepen the political crisis and precipitate the transition. The opposition will not be an obstacle if the government decides to take economic adjustment measures, but it will likely not look proactively for an economic adjustment because it will not be willing to share in its political cost. The idea of a constitutional amendment to shorten the presidential term and force a presidential election in 2016 and a political transition is gaining support. Which are the transition channels?  There are two options: one in which the institutions remained aligned with the government and move into a more radical scenario and one in which a rebalancing of the institutions open the doors for a transition scenario. After the breaking of the myths previously discussed, the most likely outcome will be the latter option. In that sense, there are three transition channels: a recall referendum, a constitutional amendment and the resignation of the president. Maduro has so far not given signals that he would resign. The recall referendum and the constitutional amendment both imply some risks, but the idea of the amendment seems to be gaining support, since it can be approved by the National Assembly if the opposition has a super-majority; and reduces the vote threshold to just 50% to validate the constitutional change. The idea is to shorten the presidential term from six to four years to eliminate the indefinite re-election cycle and put in a transitory clause to force a presidential election in 2016 to adapt the mandate of the president to the new rules, as happened in 2000 after the approval of the 1999 Constitution and in 2009 after it was amended.  If the government becomes radicalized and the constitutional transition mechanisms are blocked, we see risks of a non-constitutional exit. In such a scenario, episodes of violence cannot be discarded. We believe this type of event would lead the military to intervene and impose order. If the fourth myth again proves false, they will swing to the clearest alternative of power. (BARCLAY’s: https://live.barcap.com/PRC/servlets/dv.search?contentPubID=FC2198262&bcllink=decode)

 

Maduro orders military out of public administration jobs

President Nicolas Maduro has ordered all military personnel working in public administration jobs to return to their units immediately, after the country’s opposition party earlier this month won a majority in congress for the first time in 16 years. “I have ordered all components of the armed forces, that all military working in public administration, must return to their forces,” Maduro said. “It’s time to bring more unity and to strengthen the armed forces.” Maduro said Dec. 9 that he would seek a “revolutionary strategy” to deal with the crisis, including changes in his cabinet. Maduro remains president until 2019, and the Supreme Court and Central Bank are still packed with his appointees. (Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-12/maduro-seeks-to-strengthen-venezuela-military-forces-amid-crisis; Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKBN0TV0PO20151212)

 

Ministries managed by military officers control 54% of the Budget

The nine ministries headed by military officers managed 54% of this year´s budget. This includes the following ministries: Economics, Finance and Public Banking; Interior and Justice; Defense; President’s Office; Nutrition; Electric Energy; Air and Water Transportation; Industries; Eco-Socialism; and Habitat and Housing. President Maduro has announced that most officers currently in the administration will return to their quarters. More in Spanish: (El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/politica/Ministerios-manos-militares-manejaron-presupuesto_0_756524518.html)

 

Analyst: Venezuelan parliament vote will weaken Maduro's leadership

Luis Vicente León, President of Venezuelan pollster DATANÁLISIS, says the “Chavista” movement "has been shrinking, but still is very representative," and feels that the Venezuelan government "is not appropriate, does not solve problems, and does not represent Chávez's legacy either. Chávismo diminished. In addition, inside what remains, the sector that supports President Nicolás Maduro was also reduced." León says "this is the hardest moment Chavismo has ever experienced, with the highest inflation rate in the world and in the history of the country"; and adds that with the past election Maduro loses politically and also loses legal control. There will be a crack inside Chavismo that will seek a scapegoat, and the only guilty one is Maduro. This will weaken his inner leadership and create pressure inside the government. It will weaken President Nicolás Maduro's control relationship in other institutions that will see that there is an unhappy majority. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/151212/analyst-venezuelan-parliament-vote-will-weaken-maduros-leadership)

 

Opposition says "ideological manipulation will come to an end" in Venezuela

After meeting with the 112 National Assembly deputies-elect of opposition United Democracy Coalition (MUD), the groups’ Secretary General Jesús Torrealba announced their priorities for the incoming legislature in 2016. He said the opposition would work on social problems, “particularly amid the current economic and social ordeal” and added that "There will not be power struggle."  He further explained that the opposition will raise the issue of a law to benefit all Venezuelans through the country's welfare policies "without having to dress in red or flattering political parties. That is immoral and unfair." (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/151211/mud-ideological-manipulation-will-come-to-an-end-in-venezuela)

 

Incumbent National Assembly will decide Supreme Court appointments

The incumbent National Assembly, with a pro-regime majority, intends to fill 13 vacancies in Venezuela´s Supreme Court. Assembly President Captain Diosdado Cabello has called a special session with this purpose. The Finance Committee will also discuss several new credit authorizations requested by the government. More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/151215/cargos-en-tsj-debatira-an-en-sesiones-extraordinarias)

 

Capriles suggests “Padlock Law” to avoid international giveaways

Two time Presidential candidate Henrique Capriles has suggested that the new National Assembly pass a “Padlock Law” to keep President Maduro’s regime from “giving away” national resources to “buy international loyalty”. “Oil diplomacy must be stopped. The regime uses national resources to buy allies, not to benefit Venezuelans. A Padlock Law will stop them from signing costly international agreements to the detriment of the nation…Dollars that are given to other countries out of political convenience must be directed to buy food and medicine for the people due to the difficult situation we are undergoing”, he said. More in Spanish: (El Mundo, http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/actualidad/politica/capriles-propone--ley-candado--para-evitar-que-gob.aspx#ixzz3uNhfjIPa; El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/politica/crisis-economica-encuentra-prioridades-AN_0_756524543.html)

 

Spain's Rajoy grants López's parents Spanish nationality

The Spanish government has granted Spanish nationality to the parents of Venezuelan opposition leader Leopoldo López as a guarantee "against the political and judicial prosecution they go through" due to the current situation of their son, sentenced to a 14-year prison term. López's father "is facing a special family and personal situation as a consequence of the political and judicial prosecution his son is involved in," the Spanish Ministry of Justice said.
López Sr. was served with a subpoena to appear before a Venezuelan court and an arrest warrant for being abroad when he was submitted to a judicial proceeding, which banned him from leaving the country, DPA reported.
(El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/151211/spains-rajoy-grants-lopezs-parents-spanish-nationality)

 

Guyana rejects Venezuela's explanation for landing of aircraft

Guyanese Minister of State Joseph Harmon refused to accept the explanation given by Venezuelan authorities after one of its military aircraft landed in Kaikan, very close to the border with Venezuela's Bolívar state on December 3.
At a press conference on Thursday, Harmon said that it was unacceptable for trained Venezuelan military men to be unaware of their coordinates, Guyana Times reported. "Sometimes you can actually say these things happen because when you are flying across jungle territory, sometimes the definition of the border is not clear... but we cannot accept this explanation because a Venezuelan military pilot must know where he is going, he must see that this is not Venezuelan territory. I can understand maybe if it was a civilian aircraft and it was disoriented, but we cannot accept that to be a mistake," Harmon posited.
(El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/151211/guyana-rejects-venezuelas-explanation-for-landing-of-aircraft)

 

 

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.

 

 

Tuesday, December 1, 2015

December 01, 2015


International Trade

 

Fertilizers and soy flour have arrived

The national port authority BOLIPUERTOS reports 6,500 tons of fertilizers were offloaded at La Ceiba port. It adds some 30,000 tons of soy flour arrived at Puerto La Cruz; along with 2,000 tons of general cargo and 8,000 tons of container cargo at Guanta port. More in Spanish: (El Universal; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/151201/fertilizantes-y-harina-de-soya-arribaron-al-pais)

 

 

Oil & Energy

 

PDVSA says Crystallex US$2.8 billion claim unfounded

PDVSA says that Canadian miner Crystallex has no justification for a complaint in a U.S. court seeking to recover US$ 2.8 billion from the state oil company. Crystallex filed the complaint Monday in Delaware, saying PDVSA and its U.S.-based refining unit Citgo Holding designed a refinancing deal to lower Citgo's value and dissuade asset seizures stemming from arbitration awards. Crystallex is engaged in a US$ 3.1 billion arbitration claim against Venezuela before an international tribunal over the termination of its Las Cristinas gold asset in Venezuela. (Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/27/us-venezuela-crystallex-idUSKBN0TG2H620151127#8tGYiptGaq0yGzC7.99)

 

Venezuela oil price barely budges off 6 year low

Venezuela's weekly oil basket rose slightly off a 6 year low as oil prices around the world bounced off the previous week's collapse. According to figures released by the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, the average price of Venezuelan crude sold by Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA) during the week ending November 27 was US$ 34.93, up 37 cents from the previous week's US$ 34.46. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2400919&CategoryId=10717)

 

 

Commodities

 

Greater scarcity anticipated for early 2016

Juan Pablo Olalquiaga, President of the Food Industry Council, warns that the new year will begin with low inventories, empty storerooms and no raw material. He says this will translate into greater scarcity and no ability to carry out contingency plans. More in Spanish: (El Mundo, http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/economia/mercados/advierten-mayor-escasez-para-primeros-meses-de-201.aspx#ixzz3t3tTUtn6)

 

Gold Reserve could seize Venezuela's US assets if not promptly paid

On November 20th the US District Court in Washington DC turned down a petition by the Maduro regime to postpone enforcement of a US$ 760 million 2004 arbitration ruling in favor of the Gold Reserve mining company, and ordered its immediate execution. The Venezuelan government, aided by Patton Boggs can still go before the DC Court of Appeals as their last possibility. This means that Gold Reserve could soon start seizing any Venezuelan government assets in US territory, including what is left of CITGO. As payment is delayed, interests and legal costs continue to rise. More in Spanish: (El Blog de Coronel: www.lasarmasdecoronel.blogspot.com)

 

Paralyzed PEQUIVEN plant leads to food packing crisis

PEQUIVEN's "Ana María Campos" plant which produces low density polyethylene has been paralyzed since September, with no renewed activity in sight. Their product is key to manufacturing "flexible" packaging for the food industry. One source says "there is inventory only for a few days in companies that provide packing for food, and companies are beginning to stop their activity". The food industry will begin feeling this impact within the next few weeks. More in Spanish: (Konzapata, http://konzapata.com/2015/11/paralizacion-de-planta-de-pequiven-causa-crisis-en-produccion-de-empaques-para-alimentos/)

 

 

Economy & Finance

 

MORGAN STANLEY: Venezuela: Triggers and Transitions

Despite polls pointing to a landslide victory by the opposition, we think the outcome of the National Assembly elections is most likely to be a thin majority to either party, not enough to trigger meaningful policy changes. 2016 likely to be tougher than 2015: With oil prices likely to remain low, unchanged external debt service and less room to compress imports, the dollar deficit in 2016 could be wider than US$ 25 billion, exceeding the dollar deficit this year. Liability management unlikely to help: We think an offer to extend the 2016 and 2017 PDVSA maturities would have to include increased incentives for investors to participate. Additionally, it would only save about US$ 3 billion of financing while the coupon payments remain high enough to run the risk of a credit event. The government is likely to implement changes to avert the worst: Increasing strain on the population could lead to social unrest that, alongside the threat of a default due to the eroding asset base, may force the current government to implement policy adjustments. However, this is likely to be closer to a piecemeal approach than a drastic change of the economic model, and policy mistakes cannot be ruled out either. In the absence of policy changes, a credit event may materialize around the heavy debt-servicing payments in 4Q. (FULL REPORT ATTACHED).

 

Legislator says "government could undertake economic adjustments after Sunday"

Pro government legislator Elvis Amoroso, first Vice President of the National Assembly, does not discard the possibility of economic adjustments after legislative elections next Sunday: "Economic affairs can be very volatile, and adjustments are always necessary. If the price of oil, which is our main source of income, goes down, of course they must be carried out", he said. More in Spanish: (Notitarde; http://www.notitarde.com/Economia/Elvis-AmorosoGobierno-podria-hacer-ajuste-economicos-despues-del-6D/2015/11/30/722703/; El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/economia/Elvis-Amoroso-descarto-realicen-economicos_0_748125278.html)

 

Official says "foreign exchange unification should go through a transition"

Miguel Pérez Abad, presidential commissioner for Economic Development, says the national FOREX system has a hole and it has already shot ahead, and adds that exchange unification could be the solution to this issue. However, he says it must previously go through a long-term transition stage, including a dual exchange rate in the first phase, and then stabilize the exchange rate. "I don't see the exchange unification in the short term. It seems to me that there must be a dual exchange rate; one that can cover the seven or eight products of the basic (food) basket and a Foreign Exchange Marginal System (SIMADI) exchange rate," he remarked. Pérez Abad claims companies are willing to switch to SIMADI's exchange rate, which is more reasonable and suitable for the country economic situation and would avert price distortions. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/151128/foreign-exchange-unification-should-pass-a-transition-phase)

 

 

Politics and International Affairs

 

CREDIT SUISSE: How big could the opposition win?

Legislative elections next Sunday may be the greatest electoral test that Chavismo has ever faced. Our model suggests that it would need at least 59% of the popular vote in order to capture the two-thirds majority, which is 112 of the National Assembly’s 167 seats. We think that this is a realistic possibility. A victory of this magnitude could give the opposition momentum to push for more meaningful political changes. Such a big loss could also amplify serious questions about President Maduro’s leadership and fuel cracks within Chavismo. We would expect preliminary results on Sunday night, although these could be released quite late. The National Electoral Council (CNE) will likely make an announcement on national television and figures should eventually be published on its website. Local press and social media should also have information. The new national assembly will be seated on 5 January 2016. We see potential for political instability if the electoral results differ substantially from what opposition auditors report. The consequences of this scenario are rather unpredictable. One option for the government could be to tighten its grip and shift in a more autocratic direction. Alternatively, the military, which has allies in many gubernatorial offices and the majority of economic cabinet posts, could also play a role in a regime change scenario. We would not expect economic policies to be modified in the midst of a power struggle, but would be more concerned about continuity of debt service in a chaotic environment. We also note our concerns that possible perception of a large-scale electoral fraud, which could occur if the PSUV retains the majority, could lead to political and social instability as well as a potential interruption in debt service. (FULL REPORT ATTACHED)

 

World leaders tell Maduro that democracy doesn't work when opposition is intimidated

Five world leaders have written to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, publicly calling for an end of persecution against Venezuelan opposition and for transparent elections next Sunday. The letter has been signed by British Prime Minister David Cameron, Spain's President Mariano Rajoy; Thorbjørn Jagland, Secretary General of the European Council; Spain's former president Felipe González, and Chile's former president Ricardo Lagos. The group condemned the disqualification of opposition candidates and the Venezuelan Elections Council refusal to allow qualified observers from the OAS and the European Union. They mention that OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro has "received no explanations, but rather unacceptable insults". More in Spanish: (El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/politica/Lideres-mundiales-Maduro-democracia-oposicion_0_748125411.html)

 

OAS' Almagro replies to Maduro's insult

President Nicolás Maduro called  OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro  "trash", after the top OAS official protested the killing of opposition leader Luis Manuel Díaz during a recent rally. Almagro promptly replied by publicly writing to Maduro saying that "reports of the lack of guarantees during the elections process have multiplied recently." He added: "One is not trash, Mr. President Nicolás Maduro, by condemning the murder of a politician and calling for a stop to violence underway in the country....One would be trash if one were lenient towards violent deaths, toward threats and fear mongering; one would be trash if one did not feel for those killed in Venezuela." He called on Maduro to disarm armed civilian groups "particularly those who depend on the government or the government party", and to investigate 43 murder cases pending from past demonstrations. More in Spanish: (INFOLATAM: http://www.infolatam.com/2015/11/30/almagro-a-maduro-ser-basura-seria-que-no-dolieran-los-muertos-de-venezuela/)

 

Opposition warns against potential "technical plot" in parliamentary vote, will have the election results at 8-10 p.m.

Jesús Torrealba, Secretary Executive of Venezuela's opposition coalition Democratic Unity (MUD) has warned of a possible "technical plot" by the government of local President Nicolás Maduro if he fails to recognize or if he falsifies the results of the upcoming parliamentary election. As to the electoral mission of the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR, Torrealba again said he does not believe this group plays an independent role but rather one closer to the regime during the election. Torrealba, also says that the opposition coalition has all the necessary conditions to have specific results between 8 and 10 p.m. next December 6. "Gentlemen, we know that you know what we know," Torrealba told the National Elections Council (CNE). However, Torrealba clarified that the CNE will be the first one to issue the official results of the parliament vote. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/151130/mud-warns-against-potential-technical-plot-in-parliament-vote; and more in Spanish: El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/151130/mud-we-will-have-the-election-results-at-8-10-pm)

 

Opposition demands that the Armed Forces respect the will of the people on Sunday

Five days prior to parliamentary elections, the opposition coalition Democratic Unity has send a message with two clear demands of the National Bolivarian Armed Forces: that in this "crucial hour" for the nation they should respect the Constitution and the will of the people on December 6th. Defense Minister General Vladimir Padrino has said that there will be no violence next Sunday, nor will there be "a coup d'etat or a self-coup (by the government)"..."there will be no military-civic junta, and much less a military one, but there will not be any violence either". He said 163,000 soldiers will guard the elections process. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/151130/a-total-of-163000-army-officers-to-safeguard-parliament-vote; and more in Spanish: El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/151201/ministro-padrino-garantiza-fiesta-electoral-el-6-d; El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/politica/MUD-FANB-respetar-voluntad-ciudadanos_0_748125413.html)

 

Zapatero seeks end to "inflammatory" speeches here

Spain's former President, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero has called for an end to "inflammatory" speeches in Venezuela, leading up to Sunday's parliamentary elections. Zapatero will travel to Venezuela this week as part of a delegation to attend the upcoming vote. He said the group will seek a "clean and transparent" process. More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/151201/zapatero-pide-fin-de-discursos-inflamados; Agencia Venezolana de Noticias; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/rodr%C3%ADguez-zapatero-es-invitado-especial-del-poder-electoral-para-elecciones-6d)

 

Three arrested over opposition leader's killing

Venezuela has arrested three people suspected of the murder of a regional opposition leader at a campaign rally last week ahead of parliamentary elections next Sunday. Opposition leaders blamed the shooting of Luis Manuel Diaz on the ruling Socialist Party.  Diaz was killed by a man who approached the stage after a rally in the town of Altagracia de Orituco in central Guarico state. Lilian Tintori, the wife of jailed opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez, addressed opposition supporters alongside Diaz shortly before the shooting. Opposition leaders blamed last week's shooting on the ruling Socialists. But President Nicolas Maduro's government has furiously denied that. Officials claimed Diaz was a well-known criminal caught in a gang dispute linked to unions in Guarico, whose death was being manipulated to discredit the Socialist Party. Yet opposition politicians say their candidates have been attacked on numerous occasions in the past weeks. Miguel Pizarro, an opposition politician running for re-election in Caracas, said he was confronted by armed men who shot into the air in the neighborhood of Petare on Sunday. Miranda state governor Henrique Capriles said he was attacked by a group of masked men in the town of Yare earlier this month. Correspondents say the killing of Diaz has increased concerns about volatility in the run-up to the election for a new National Assembly. (BBC News: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-34971297?; Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/30/us-venezuela-election-idUSKBN0TJ2KV20151130#UsSDfpbIDaf41j63.99)

 

Lilian Tintori rejects regime protection

The wife of Venezuelan opposition leader Leopoldo López, Lilian Tintori, rejected the protection offered by the local government after they warned her she "is the target" of hirelings who charge USD 30,000 "per political crime." Tintori said that she had been summoned late Saturday to meet with agents of the Bolivarian Intelligence Service (SEBIN) to coordinate how she would be given police protection, yet she refused to attend: "I decided not to attend because who is pursuing me and threatening me is SEBIN, (which is) the state police", Tintori said, as she recalled her husband turned himself in the authorities last February after the local government reported there was evidence of a plot to kill him. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/151130/lilian-tintori-rejects-venezuelan-govt-protection)

 

 

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.