August 27, 2019

International Trade

Venezuela, Russia sign ports agreement

Warships from Russia and Venezuela can dock at one another’s national ports under an agreement signed earlier this month between Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López and his Russian counterpart, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, in Moscow. The Venezuelan official was in Moscow for nearly a week in mid-August. In a video posted on 15 August on the Twitter account of the Venezuelan military’s press office, Padrino López said bilateral defense ties commenced in 2001 and the new ports agreement will “strengthen these relations.” (Jane’s: https://www.janes.com/article/90647/venezuela-russia-sign-ports-agreement)

 

Venezuela Parliament says military agreement with Russia ‘unconstitutional’

Venezuela's National Assembly controlled by the opposition declared null and void a new agreement with Russia on military cooperation. The declaration was published on Monday. The document concerns "the agreement on military cooperation between the governments of Venezuela and Russia, signed by defense ministers Vladimir Padrino Lopez and Sergey Shoigu." "This agreement was not considered either by a commission on foreign policy, sovereignty and integration or by parliament, which makes it unconstitutional, and this means that it is null and void," the declaration said, calling it unconstitutional. The parliament also said that opening a Venezuelan embassy in North Korea was "a violation of the constitution", TASS reported. On August 15, Shoigu and Lopez signed an agreement on reciprocal visits of military ships at the meeting in Moscow. The defense ministers also discussed the situation in Venezuela and issues of bilateral military cooperation. (TASNIM News Agency: https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2019/08/27/2084075/venezuela-parliament-says-military-agreement-with-russia-unconstitutional)

 

Oil & Energy

China's July Venezuela oil imports fall over U.S. sanctions

China’s crude oil imports from Venezuela plunged 62% in July from the previous month, Chinese customs data showed on Sunday, as growing tension between Washington and the Maduro regime made buyers wary of taking oil from this nation. Arrivals of crude oil from Venezuela were 703,742 tons last month, or 165,720 barrels per day (bpd), data from the General Administration of Customs showed. That is down from 275,646 bpd in June. With U.S. sanctions on Venezuela having already driven away many of its oil buyers, the Trump administration in early August kept up the pressure by threatening sanctions on any company that works with Maduro’s government. Venezuela’s oil exports fell 17.5% in July to their second lowest since Washington imposed the sanctions in January, according to internal data from the company and REFINITIV EIKON. China National Petroleum Corp, a leading buyer of Venezuelan oil, has halted loadings in August amid concerns over potential hits by the secondary sanctions. REFINITIV Oil Research showed only three cargos carrying a total 540,000 tons of crude have left from Venezuela for China so far this month, half of the figure in July. For the first seven months of the year, China’s imports of Venezuela crude oil fell 13.4% on a year earlier to 9.37 million tons, or 322,601 bpd. (Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-trade-crude/chinas-july-venezuela-oil-imports-fall-over-us-sanctions-idUSKCN1VF06N; Lloyd’s List: https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1128939/VenezuelaChina-oil-flows-fail-to-stem-plunging-tanker-demand)

 

Half of Venezuela's oil rigs may disappear if U.S. waivers lapse

A looming U.S. sanctions deadline is threatening to clobber Venezuela’s dwindling oil-rig fleet and hamper energy production in the nation with the world’s largest crude reserves. Almost half the rigs still operating in Venezuela will shut down by Oct. 25 if the Trump administration doesn’t extend a 90-day waiver from its sanctions, according to data compiled from consultancy Caracas Capital Markets. That could further cripple this nation’s production because the structures are needed to drill new wells crucial for even maintaining output, which is already near the lowest level since the 1940s. (Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-22/trump-takes-aim-at-oil-rigs-crucial-to-venezuela-s-energy-future)

 

CITGO profits hit by fallout from split, sees 2H improvement -CEO

The two new top executives at CITGO Petroleum disclosed this week that net income in the second quarter slid to less than half its level a year earlier, hit by a broad slump for the refining industry as well as complications from U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and CITGO’s split with state-run oil company PDVSA. Chief Executive Officer Carlos Jorda and Chairwoman Luisa Palacios on Thursday laid out a plan to rebuild profits, pay down debt and invest in operations after a jarring split this year from parent Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA). But they conceded that their plans could be complicated by U.S. sanctions on Venezuela which have affected relationships with suppliers and partners. One contentious issue is whether CITGO or another PDVSA subsidiary is responsible for a payment of almost US$ 1 billion due to bondholders this fall. Houston-based CITGO, the eighth-largest U.S. refiner, ousted its CEO and other top executives early this year and halted all dealings with PDVSA after Washington levied sanctions on Venezuela intended to force Nicolas Maduro from power. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/citgo-ceo/citgo-profits-hit-by-fallout-from-split-sees-2h-improvement-ceo-idUSL2N25J0LQ)

 

Explosion rocks Venezuela oil plant

An explosion rocked a natural gas-filling plant in the Venezuelan state of Miranda, forcing the evacuation of 6,500 residents, TELESUR reports, adding the Venezuelan government has called the event an act of sabotage. The explosion caused no fatalities with only one worker at the plant reported injured. According to a report in the leftist daily Morning Star, “The attacks were branded ‘terrorism’ by the Maduro regime. This is the latest in a string of accidents that highlight the precarious energy situation in sanction-bound Venezuela. Earlier this year, several blackouts crippled the country, with the government calling them a sabotage as well. The latest blackout, in July, Caracas blamed on an electromagnetic attack. The blackouts hit Venezuela’s oil industry particularly hard, leading to a suspension of operations at crude upgraders and its main oil export terminal. (Oil Price: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Explosion-Rocks-Venezuela-Oil-Plant.html)

 

Economy & Finance

Cold, hard euros: Venezuela turns to European cash after U.S. sanctions

From supermarket checkouts in the capital Caracas to electronics stores in the central city of Maracay, Venezuelans struggling with hyperinflation and a deep economic crisis are turning to a new form of payment: euros in cash. Runaway inflation that has made even large piles of the local bolivar currency worthless - combined with the socialist government’s relaxation of restrictions on the use of foreign currency - has encouraged Venezuelans to turn to dollar bills for everyday transactions in the past year. But in the past four months, euros have also started proliferating in markets and stores here. With the stock of dollars in circulation still far greater than euros, Venezuelan merchants tend to quote items at the same price in the European and U.S. currency - ignoring the euro’s higher value on international markets. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-economy-euros/cold-hard-euros-venezuela-turns-to-european-cash-after-u-s-sanctions-idUSKCN1VD195)

 

Politics and International Affairs

Guaidó vows to shun early election

Venezuela's National Assembly President and interim President Juan Guaidó said Friday that opponents of Nicolás Maduro won't participate in any early legislative elections he calls amid a protracted power struggle. Guaidó said in an interview with The Associated Press that it would be a "farce" to participate in any election with the Maduro regime still in control of the country. The man recognized by the U.S. as Venezuela's rightful leader also said he plans to keep the self-claimed title of "acting president" even after his one-year term as leader of the opposition-controlled National Assembly ends in the new year. "We are very clear that we're going to continue until the point that elections in Venezuela are in reality free," Guaidó said. He contended there are signs Maduro's government is weakening, alleging it is resorting to torturing opponents while growing isolated from its people and the international community. Socialist party chief Diosdado Cabello, a key Maduro ally, has said elections for the National Assembly — the most important opposition-dominated institution in Venezuela — could be held in January or earlier. The legislature's five-year term is set to end in December 2020 and elections are traditionally held in the last month of its term. (AP: https://news.yahoo.com/venezuela-opposition-leader-vows-boycott-164911841.html)

 

The price of removing Nicolas Maduro from office may be amnesty for his deputies, by Eli Lake

No one should take Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro’s words at face value. That applies to his claims last week that his regime is in secret negotiations with “high-ranking” American officials. His comments were almost certainly a gambit to divide the opposition during the on-again, off-again negotiations over new elections being brokered by the Norwegian government. They were a ploy to make the internationally recognized but largely powerless government of interim President Juan Guaidó believe that U.S. President Donald Trump was negotiating behind its back. That said, there is a kernel of truth buried in Maduro’s fiction. Trump also acknowledged talks at “a very high level” last week. U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton has said these contacts are not authorized by Maduro and are aimed at ushering in free elections. So: America is talking to Maduro’s deputies — about how to get rid of Maduro. If the apparatchiks who preach socialism are now looking to protect their fortunes and stay out of jail, that may mean the collapse of the regime is nigh. At the same time, this back and forth highlight just how unsatisfactory the fall of Maduro is likely to be. His ouster will require the cooperation of his enablers — and the price of their cooperation, at a minimum, will be amnesty. Guaidó and his supporters have been keenly aware of this dilemma since January, when most of the Western Hemisphere recognized him as interim president of Venezuela. One of his first acts was to press the National Assembly to pass an amnesty law for civilian and military officials who worked to restore constitutional government. At the time, Human Rights Watch, which has documented much of the Maduro regime’s crimes, criticized the law for being dangerously vague and overbroad. More than eight months into his efforts to oust Maduro, however, some details are coming into focus — namely, the kinds of scoundrels that will evade justice in exchange for turning on Maduro. As one senior U.S. official told me, the U.S. has delivered messages to Maduro’s deputies, often through intermediaries, that they are interested not in vengeance but only in an orderly transition to free and fair elections. (Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-26/ousting-venezuela-s-maduro-may-require-amnesty-for-his-deputies)

 

U.S. sanctions on Venezuela undercut talks, key Maduro ally says

U.S. sanctions against Venezuela are making successful talks with the opposition impossible, said a key ally of Nicolas Maduro, demanding that President Donald Trump immediately act to drop them. "The stone in the way of any negotiation is sanctions," Tarek William Saab, Venezuela’s public prosecutor, said in a rare interview at the Public Prosecutor headquarters office in downtown Caracas. "It is a shot in the foot of any negotiation because how can you negotiate with a gun pointed at your head?" (Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-23/u-s-sanctions-on-venezuela-undercut-talks-key-maduro-ally-says)

 

Argentina poised to abandon Venezuela’s opposition

Election-bound Argentina is poised to withdraw from the vocal bloc of Latin American nations that supports Venezuela's political opposition and recognizes its leader, Juan Guaidó, as the country's interim president. Alberto Fernandez, the leading candidate to replace Argentina's president Mauricio Macri in 27 October elections, is signaling that his administration would not seek to remove Nicolas Maduro. If Fernandez and his unrelated running mate and former president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner win the presidency, Buenos Aires would likely pull out of the Lima Group of Latin American countries and Canada that have been seeking to isolate the Maduro government in favor of a transition administration led by Guaidó. In a 25 August television interview, Alberto Fernandez made it clear that he disagreed with Macri who has long denounced Maduro's government as a dictatorship. "It is very difficult to qualify an elected government as a dictatorship. An elected government can become an authoritarian government," Fernandez said, explicitly challenging the position of the Lima Group, the US and most EU countries, which assert that Maduro was fraudulently re-elected in May 2018. "The institutions are working there, we can then discuss how they work, but formally there is an assembly, there are courts. A dictatorship generally lacks these things," he added in explaining why he does not deem Venezuela to be a dictatorship and prefers to describe Maduro's government as authoritarian. A Fernandez administration would bring Argentina closer in line to the stance of Uruguay and Mexico, which advocate non-intervention in Venezuela and object to extensive US financial and oil sanctions on the country. "I do not agree with all these proposals that line up Latin America behind (US president Donald) Trump and I value the proposal that was made by (Mexican president Manuel) Lopez Obrador and (Uruguayan president) Tabare Vazquez and I think I would add myself to those two to try to help find a solution for Venezuela," Fernandez said in the television interview. (Argus: https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/1965727-argentina-poised-to-abandon-venezuelas-opposition?backToResults=true)

 

Maduro looks to North Korea for support – opens first embassy in Pyongyang

The deterioration of Venezuela’s relations with the Western world, imposition of harsh Western economic sanctions and open calls for regime change by the United States and many of its allies have led Caracas to strengthen ties with several Western adversaries since 2017. The country’s ties with Russia and China have been highly prolific, but a quieter but less conspicuous partnership which has been built has been that between Venezuela and North Korea. In December 2018 North Korean Presidium President and Head of State Kim Yong Nam paid a state visit to Caracas, and it was widely speculated that defense and economic cooperation was under discussion. North Korea opened an embassy in Caracas four years prior. Furthering a trend towards greater cooperation, on August 21^st, 2019, the Maduro regime opened its first embassy in Pyongyang which was attended by the deputy foreign ministers of both states. Maduro’s Deputy Foreign Minister Ruben Dario Molina stated at the event: “the people and leaders of Venezuela and the North Korea have become a target for attacks and threats by North American imperialism, which seeks to put us on their knees because of our implacable ideology and the desire to achieve economic and social progress.” His Korean counterpart Pak Myung Guk stated: “the government of the DPRK (North Korea) is constantly in its desire to expand and develop a relationship of friendship and cooperation with Venezuela, which are being placed in the flame of the general anti-imperialist struggle for independence and socialism.” (Check Point Asia Net: https://www.checkpointasia.net/venezuela-looks-to-north-korea-for-support-opens-first-embassy-in-pyongyang/)

 

Venezuelans stranded as Ecuador imposes new visa rules

Ecuador on Monday joined Peru and Chile in restricting Venezuelan immigration. To enter the country, Venezuelans now need to provide a criminal record, apply for a visa before arrival and present a valid passport. As the deadline neared, many Venezuelans in Ecuador rushed home to retrieve family members. Thousands more rushed east from their homes in Venezuela, eager to start a life in Ecuador that would soon be much harder to achieve. The last-minute wave sowed chaos for immigration officials on both sides of the Ecuador-Colombia border. Migrants waited hours in bitterly cold temperatures as they navigated immigration processes. Temperatures dropped to six degrees Celsius and many slept huddled together in blankets as they queued, in some cases overnight. Colombian migration officials did not know the exact number of Venezuelans who crossed before the border closed on Sunday, but a director at the Rumichaca office told Al Jazeera that more than 11,000 Venezuelans had crossed as of 6pm, well before the midnight deadline. According to Colombian immigration officials on the Venezuelan border in Cucuta, there are still more on the way. The chaos was not limited just to Colombia as masses of migrants huddled in Ecuador as well, waiting to be processed. Passports can cost several months’ salary for most Venezuelans, though many migrants told Al Jazeera the actual price is much higher when one factors in necessary bribes of US$ 100 to US$300. In a country where the monthly minimum wages has fallen to below US$ 5, that is beyond the reach of most Venezuelans. (Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/08/venezuelans-stranded-ecuador-imposes-visa-rules-190826134509203.html)

 

Venezuelan socialist defiant as US sanctions threaten baseball

Venezuela's upcoming baseball season will go on "even if we have to play ourselves," socialist party No. 2 Diosdado Cabello said on Monday, criticizing a move by US-based Major League Baseball to restrict players from participating because of US sanctions. MLB said last week it would suspend involvement in the Venezuelan league, which starts play in October, while it awaited word from the US government on whether its players' participation was consistent with Washington's sanctions on this nation, which are meant to force out socialist Nicolas Maduro. While the number of Venezuelan major league stars returning to their baseball-mad homeland to play has declined in recent years because of security issues and an economic crisis, many of the players on the Venezuelan league's eight professional teams also play for one of MLB's hundreds of minor-league affiliates. (The Sydney Morning Herald: https://www.smh.com.au/world/south-america/even-if-we-have-to-play-ourselves-venezuelan-socialist-defiant-as-us-sanctions-threaten-baseball-20190827-p52l2q.html)

 

Russia, China offer to help Venezuela in preparing for 2020 Olympics — Maduro

Russia and China have offered to help Venezuelan athletes to prepare for the next Summer Olympic Games, Nicolas Maduro claimed on Thursday. "Russia and China have offered us special help in training," Maduro said at a meeting with young athletes that was broadcast on Twitter. He said that "many athletes" will be able to go to Russia and China for training. "I am confident that we will show our best results in history at the Tokyo Olympics," Maduro noted. The next Summer Olympic Games will be held in Japan's Tokyo in July-August 2020. (TASS: https://tass.com/world/1073700)

 

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.

 

June 06, 2019

Oil & Energy

Venezuela's oil exports drop 17% in May as sanctions kick in

Venezuelan PDVSA’s oil exports took another hit in May, following a deadline for customers to wind-down purchases in order to comply with U.S. sanctions, according to documents from the state-run company and Definitive Eikon data. The energy firm’s exports of crude and refined products fell 17% in May from the previous month to 874,500 barrels per day (bpd), mainly due to difficulty in selling off barrels of upgraded crude that used to be bought by U.S. refiners. Venezuela has drained oil inventories since late January, when Washington imposed sanctions on PDVSA, to offset declining crude output, according to analysts. That allowed the firm to maintain exports around 1 million bpd for the following three months despite the measures. But some customers ended purchases of Venezuelan oil in late April to comply with sanctions, leaving PDVSA with an accumulation of upgraded oil and further reducing its portfolio of regular buyers, according to the reports and data. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-oil-exports/venezuelas-oil-exports-drop-17-in-may-as-sanctions-kick-in-data-idUSKCN1T521H)

 

Maduro’s PDVSA to open Moscow office this month

PDVSA plans to open an office in Moscow this month, Interfax cited the Maduro regime's oil minister as saying on Thursday during a trip to the Russian city of St. Petersburg. Caracas said earlier this year that it was moving its Lisbon-based office to Moscow in order to safeguard the country's assets. (The Moscow Times: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/06/06/venezuelas-oil-company-office-to-open-in-moscow-this-month-a65901)

 

Commodities

Maduro claims that Venezuela has 1.2 billion Euros in mineral reserves

In a recent televised speech, Nicolas Maduro claimed that Venezuela has 1.2 billion Euros in mineral reserves, including gold, diamonds, nickel, bauxite, iron, and others. He added that Venezuela has been legally certified to have 2236 tons of gold, according to the regime’s news agency. More in Spanish: (AVN, http://www.avn.info.ve/node/472987)

 

Economy & Finance

Venezuela defaults on gold swap with Deutsche

Venezuela has failed to make interest payments on a gold swap agreement valued at US$ 750M with Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB), leading the lender to take possession of the precious metal used as collateral. The loan that Deutsche Bank made in 2016 was backed by 20 tons of gold as collateral. The agreement was set to expire in 2021 but was settled early due to the missed interest payments. Meanwhile, Venezuela opposition leader Juan Guaido's parallel government has asked the bank to deposit US$ 120M into an account outside of Nicolas Maduro's control; that amount represents the difference in price from when the gold was acquired to its current level. Venezuela's gold holdings, one of Maduro's few sources of capital to keep his regime going and his military forces loyal, have been shrinking. In March Venezuela's Central Bank missed a March deadline to buy back gold from CITIGROUP For almost US$ 1.1B. And earlier, the Bank of England refused to give back US$ 1.2B worth of Venezuelan gold. (Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-04/venezuela-is-said-to-default-on-gold-swap-with-deutsche-bank)

 

90% drop in construction industry reported here

Mauricio Brin, head of Venezuela’s construction industry chamber, reports that construction here has dropped by 90% since 2019; and is currently totally paralyzed. He added that most public works have been paralyzed since 2010, “because the state has been unable to finance” them. More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/42003/reportan-caida-de-mas-de-90-en-el-sector-construccion)

 

Politics and International Affairs

Leaked audio reveals Pompeo saying US has struggled to keep Maduro opposition united

In a closed-door meeting last week, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the U.S. has struggled to keep the opposition to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro united, according to The Washington Post. “Our conundrum, which is to keep the opposition united, has proven devilishly difficult,” Pompeo said in audio obtained by the Post. “The moment Maduro leaves, everybody’s going to raise their hands and [say], ‘Take me, I’m the next president of Venezuela.’ It would be forty-plus people who believe they’re the rightful heir to Maduro.” The secretary of State made the remarks last week during a meeting with Jewish leaders, according to the Post, at one-point declining to answer a sensitive question because “someone’s probably got a tape recorder on.” Pompeo added that while he believed Maduro would inevitably be ousted, he “couldn’t tell you the timing.” The secretary of State said the problems in uniting the opposition have been present since he became director of the CIA in 2017 and that internal squabbles among Maduro’s enemies were preventing a successful uprising. Maduro, Pompeo said in the recording, "is mostly surrounded by Cubans," adding, "He doesn’t trust Venezuelans a lick. I don’t blame him. He shouldn’t. They were all plotting against him. Sadly, they were all plotting for themselves." The sentiments Pompeo expresses in the recording are “a sober but accurate view,” Shannon O’Neil, a Venezuela expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, told the newspaper. “They remain divided over how to take on the Maduro regime — whether or not to enter into dialogue, whether or not to engage with the military, whether or not to run a presidential candidate or boycott elections,” she told the Post. “They don’t even retweet each other.” Pompeo blamed the disarray among the opposition for the failure of the April 30 coup attempt by a group of soldiers, which fizzled out within 24 hours. The Washington Post said Pompeo made the comments at a meeting last week in New York of which it had a recording, despite the official US support for interim president Juan Guaido. Diosdado Cabello, the US-sanctioned head of Maduro’s puppet “Constitutional Assembly” quickly called Pompeo “incompetent” for failure to unite the opposition and for “believing in their lies”; and invited him to visit Venezuela. (The Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/...pompeo...venezuelas.../85385a33-8eae-4ba5-a9ac-6; The Hill: https://thehill.com/policy/international/americas/447159-pompeo-reveals-in-leaked-audio-us-has-struggled-to-keep-maduro; RT: https://www.rt.com/news/461180-pompeo-opposition-unite-fail/; France24: https://www.france24.com/en/20190606-pompeo-warns-divided-venezuela-opposition-report; and more in Spanish: El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/politica/42042/cabello-ravell-debe-pagar-30-mil-millones-de-bolivares-para-la-construccion-de-escuelas-para-ninos)

 

Venezuelan troops trained rebels to fire rockets, Colombia says

Venezuelan soldiers loyal to embattled Nicolas Maduro have trained members of South America’s most dangerous guerrilla force to use heat-seeking anti-aircraft missiles, according to Colombian authorities. National Liberation Army fighters were instructed in how to use the Russian-manufactured IGLA surface-to-air missile system, according to General Luis Navarro, Colombia’s top-ranking soldier. The Marxist force known as the ELN has long used Venezuelan territory as a refuge and has a close ideological affinity with Maduro’s socialist government, which the U.S. is trying to topple. Colombia’s intelligence services don’t know whether the ELN actually has acquired its own missile launchers, nor do they know whether the training was organized by a faction within Venezuela’s military or sanctioned at the highest levels in Caracas. The ELN received training clandestinely rather than at Venezuelan army bases, Navarro said. “These are weapons used by the Venezuelan armed forces,” he said in an interview at a Bogota air base. “We have the clear evidence and the necessary intelligence to affirm that the ELN is considered as part of the defense of the revolution of the Maduro regime.” Now, the military intelligence report says, 45% of the ELN’s fighters - including its commanders - are hiding in Venezuela and receiving protection from Maduro. Venezuela’s Socialist regime has over the years acknowledged that the ELN enters the country but denies supporting the rebel group. “The ELN considers Venezuelan states bordering Colombia as their strategic rearguard,” said Navarro, adding that growth in the ELN and FARC ranks was “a risk and we have to contain them.” The ELN is present in 12, or roughly half, of Venezuela’s states, according to Insight Crime, a Washington-based research organization that monitors Latin America, a report recently underscored in Twitter by the US Southern Command. (Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-06/venezuelan-troops-trained-rebels-to-fire-rockets-colombia-says; SOUTHCOM: https://twitter.com/Southcom/status/1136314020162654209; Reuters: https://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKCN1T62LM)

 

U.S. Bars Cruises to Cuba in Retaliation for Venezuelan Role

The U.S. State Department is barring cruise ships from going to Cuba as part of a crackdown on travel to the island, citing government repression and its role in the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela. “The United States will no longer permit visits to Cuba via passenger and recreational vessels, including cruise ships and yachts, and private and corporate aircraft,” the department said Tuesday. The action threatens to cut off a burgeoning tourist trade with Cuba that got underway during the Obama administration. Major cruises operators, including market leader Carnival Corp. and No. 2 Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd., have regular itineraries delivering thousands of American tourists to Havana and other Cuban cities. The decision caught industry analysts and executives by surprise. Even as the threat of a Trump crackdown loomed, cruise lines had been adding sailings to the island, and Havana was making plans to triple the size of its cruise-ship terminal. (Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-04/u-s-to-bar-cruise-ships-from-cuba-in-retaliation-for-venezuela)

 

Brazilian President accepts credentials of Guaido’s envoy

President Jair Bolsonaro accepted on Tuesday the credentials of Maria Teresa Belandria, the envoy to Brazil of Venezuela’s National Assembly speaker, Juan Guaido, who is recognized by Brasilia as that country’s “legitimate and interim” head of state. Belandria arrived in Brazil in February, less than a month after Guaido took oath as Venezuela’s interim president following the National Assembly’s refusal to accept the legitimacy of Nicolas Maduro, who was sworn in for a new six-year term in January that the opposition and dozens of countries do not recognize following what they called “fraudulent” elections in May 2018. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2479470&CategoryId=10717; Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-brazil/brazils-bolsonaro-formally-recognizes-venezuelan-opposition-envoy-idUSKCN1T5312)

Venezuelan reporters push past police to enter Parliament

A group of reporters backed by several opposition lawmakers forced their way into Venezuela’s National Assembly after more than a month of being kept out by police. Led by the National Press Workers Union (SNTP), the reporters broke through the security cordon by pushing past some officers lined up in front of an entrance to the Federal Legislative Palace. On hand were several lawmakers who helped the journalists get into the building after a brief argument with the police. “Today, by a decision, and I have to say it, of the lawmakers of the National Assembly, we have finally been able to enter the building and do the work we are supposed to do,” said the president of the SNTP, Marco Ruiz. The legislators welcomed the press, while accusing the Maduro regime of seeking to censor the news. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://wwwaht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2479467&CategoryId=10717)

 

Putin says Russia and China want situation in Venezuela to stabilize, denies military support for Maduro

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday after talks in Moscow with Chinese leader Xi Jinping that Moscow and Beijing wanted the situation in Venezuela to stabilize. Putin also said that Moscow has no plans to send troops to shore up Nicolás Maduro. Asked about US President Donald Trump's tweet earlier this week that Moscow had informed Washington it had pulled its personnel out of Venezuela, Putin said that Russian experts come and go to service Russian-made weapons bought by Caracas. "We aren't building any military bases there, we aren't sending troops there, we have never done that," Putin said. "But we have fulfilled our contract obligations in the sphere of military-technical cooperation, and we will keep doing that." He warned US military intervention in Venezuela would be a disaster. Even Washington's allies did not support such a course of action, Putin said. (Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-putin-xi/russia-and-china-want-situation-in-venezuela-to-stabilize-putin-idUSKCN1T61VC; TRT World: https://www.trtworld.com/americas/putin-says-no-plans-to-send-troops-venezuela-crisis-26278)

 

Lavrov confirms Russia’s contacts with Venezuelan opposition

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in a recent interview that Moscow hasn't ended contact with Venezuela's opposition. "As for your question about working with the opposition, we are not quitting this work. As I said, in Venezuela we responded several times to requests for contact. These contacts took place", Lavrov said in an interview with RBC. "During these conversations, we reaffirmed our position in favor of a national dialogue, expressed disagreement with the fact that in response to the call by the 'Montevideo Mechanism' to start such a dialogue, when President [Nicolas] Maduro agreed, [opposition leader Juan] Guaido haughtily refused", he said. (Sputnik International: https://sputniknews.com/russia/201906061075669431-russia-venezuela-oslo-talks/)

 

Xi says China will play 'constructive role' on Venezuela

China will work with the international community to play a constructive role with Venezuela and help the country to get back on a normal development path as soon as possible, Chinese President Xi Jinping told Russian media. Xi told TASS news agency and Rossiyskaya Gazeta newspaper that China opposes foreign interference, unilateral sanctions, the use of force, or threats of the use of force, when it came to Venezuela. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-china/xi-says-china-will-play-constructive-role-on-venezuela-idUSKCN1T606W)

 

Venezuela, now a top source of U.S. asylum claims, poses a challenge for Trump

Nearly 3.9 million people have fled Venezuela, with millions more expected to follow this year, according to William Spindler, spokesman for the United Nations refugee agency. As a result, Venezuela has overtaken China to become the No. 1 country of origin for those claiming asylum in the U.S. upon arrival or shortly after, with nearly 30,000 Venezuelans applying for asylum with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services in 2018. Nearly one-third of claims filed with the agency come from Venezuelans, the most of any country by far, according to the latest data. That has created a dilemma for the Trump administration in which its foreign policy, which considers Maduro’s government an oppressive dictatorship, is colliding with its immigration policy, which has sought aggressively to hold down the number of people admitted to the country through asylum. President Trump has railed against asylum applicants, saying that many are engaging in a “hoax” and a “big, fat con job.” Many Central American asylum seekers, who are Trump’s primary target, fall into a different category than the Venezuelans. But because of the foreign policy focus on Venezuela, the asylum seekers from that country pose a more direct challenge to the administration’s anti-immigration agenda. Only about 2% of those granted asylum in the U.S. are Venezuelan, according to a Homeland Security report in March. While approval rates appear to be increasing, about 50% of Venezuelan asylum claims are denied, on average. Those denied asylum are at risk of deportation back to their home country. The administration has resisted a bipartisan push — including from Florida Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, an avowed hawk on Venezuela — to grant Venezuelans the right to stay in the U.S. under so-called temporary protected status. That program, designed to deal with people fleeing natural disasters or civil unrest, offers recipients protection from removal and the right to work legally in the U.S. But administration officials have sought to dismantle the program as part of their wider efforts to reduce immigration. In fact, the Trump administration has stepped up deportations of Venezuelans. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement deported 336 Venezuelans last year, far fewer than the tens of thousands of Central Americans being removed each year, but a 35% increase over the year prior. Sen. Richard J. Durbin (D-Ill.), who has pushed for granting temporary status to Venezuelans, said Trump’s policy is counterproductive. “Blocking Venezuelan refugees from seeking safe haven and forcing them to return home at this very dangerous time plays right into Maduro’s hands,” Durbin said. (Los Angeles Times: https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-trump-venezuela-asylum-immigration-20190605-story.html)

 

Maduro court forces publication to pay US$ 4.7 million to alleged socialist drug lord

Venezuela’s Supreme Court, run by loyalists to socialist dictator Nicolás Maduro, ordered the online news outlet La Patilla to pay senior chavista official, television show host, and alleged cartel chief Diosdado Cabello US$ 4.7 million for aggregating a 2015 article in which Hugo Chávez’s former security chief accused Cabello of drug trafficking.  La Patilla is a Venezuelan online publication that posts anti-socialist material, usually curating news from other sources rather than publishing original reports, as well as entertainment and lifestyle news. The story that Cabello sued over was an original report in the Spanish newspaper ABC revealing that the former security chief, Leamsy Salazar, had left Venezuela and was under DEA protector, willing to testify to Cabello being the head of the Cartel de los Soles (“cartel of the suns”). The Cartel de los Soles is thus named because it is made up of members of the Venezuelan military, who wear sun medallions on their uniforms. It is an intercontinental cocaine trafficking operation, according to American law enforcement. Cabello responded to the report with a lawsuit rampage targeting La Patilla, two other Venezuelan outlets, ABC, and the Wall Street Journal. A U.S. court threw the case against the Wall Street Journal out in 2018 because, the judge ruled, Cabello did not provide any evidence that disproved “that he is, in fact, under investigation for his potential involvement in drug trafficking and money laundering activities.” Responding to the ruling, La Patilla owner Alberto Ravell called it “judicial terrorism.” Cabello is one of several senior Maduro officials under severe U.S. sanctions. The U.S. Treasury accused him in a 2018 statement announcement sanctions on him of being “directly involved in narcotics trafficking activities.” A June 2018 report revealed that the Treasury had confiscated US$ 800 million in assets that Cabello had hidden in the United States. (Breitbart: https://www.breitbart.com/the-media/2019/06/05/venezuela-court-forces-publication-to-pay-4-7-million-to-alleged-socialist-drug-lord/)

 

How Maduro 'spent thousands of state funds on Cuban rituals'

Nicolas Maduro allegedly spent thousands of state funds on religious rituals in Cuba, according to a former intelligence official. Hugo Carvajal, former director of the country’s military intelligence, lashed out at Maduro in an open letter. Responding to a claim from the Venezuelan ruler that he was dismissed for gross misconduct, Carvajal made several explosive claims about Maduro’s religious beliefs and financial conduct. He wrote: "The people should also know that your religious sacrifice rituals in Cuba were paid by your minister of finance, who on at least one occasion sent a briefcase with US$ 500,000 in cash to Havana in a PDVSA plane." Maduro was accused of performing Santeria rituals in Cuba while leaving ordinary citizens with desperate shortages back in Venezuela. Carvajal continued: “How dare you call yourself Christian when you follow any belief you come across? “You are a devout Santero, follower of Sai Baba and who knows what other religion. I suppose that you must by some means justify all the atrocities you have committed against the Venezuelan people.” Maduro was raised as a Roman Catholic and claims to maintain his Christian beliefs – but some fear his relationship with Cuba is religious as well as political. The Santero faith combines Roman Catholicism and Yoruba beliefs. (Express: https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1136689/venezuela-crisis-maduro-cash-cuba-ritual-santeria-spt)

 

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.

February 26, 2019

International Trade

Food and cleaning products have arrived at Margarita island’s El Guamache port

Port officials have announced that the CFS PANAVERA has arrived at Margarita island’s El Guamache port from Jamaica, carrying 53 containers, including 12 with food and 4 with personal care and health products. Cooking oil, rice, wheat flour, coffee, chocolate, pasta, peas, tomatoes, cosmetics and cleaning products are part of the arriving cargo. More in Spanish; (Bolipuertos, http://www.bolipuertos.gob.ve/noticia.aspx?id=43456)

 

Logistics & Transport

US flying more reconnaissance flights off Venezuela, military sources say

The US military has flown an increased number of reconnaissance flights in international airspace off the coast of Venezuela during the last several days to gather classified intelligence about the embattled regime of Nicolas Maduro, according to two US defense officials. The officials would not detail which US military aircraft are being used, but the Navy and Air Force maintain several large fixed-wing aircraft capable of intercepting communications and monitoring the status of weaponry. The officials noted that the effort is limited to whatever the aircraft can gather by staying in international airspace. Several US military officials continue to emphasize there are no military options actively being considered for the Venezuela crisis. For now, the US military would only contemplate a response if US assets, personnel or the embassy were attacked. The US Federal Aviation Administration has issued a warning to US pilots about flying into and out of Venezuela because of "continued political instability and increasing tensions." (CNN: https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/25/americas/venezuela-developments/index.html)

 

AVIOR halts flights to Aruba, Curaçao and Bonaire

Venezuela’s AVIOR airline has indefinitely suspended all flights to and from the islands of Aruba, Curaçao and Bonaire, following an order from this country’s National Civil Aeronautics Institute barring all air traffic by order of the Maduro regime. More in Spanish; (Noticiero Venevisión, http://www.noticierovenevision.net/noticias/economia/avior-suspendio-sus-vuelos-a-aruba-curazao-y-bonaire)

 

Oil & Energy

Venezuela has US$ 500 million of crude sitting in ships — but nobody wants to buy it

Venezuela is running out of space to store its sanction-stained crude that few dare to buy, forcing it to reduce output at a time when the world is thirsty for heavy, sulfurous oil. Tankers holding 8.36 million barrels of Venezuelan crude worth upwards of a half-billion dollars are floating off the country’s coast as the nation struggles to find buyers for its oil following new U.S. sanctions in January. An armada of 16 ships holds cargoes belonging to state oil company PDVSA, CHEVRON, VALERO, and ROSNEFT, according to shipping reports and ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Oil ventures owned by PDVSA with ROSNEFT, CHEVRON, TOTAL and EQUINOR, whose upgraders convert tar-like Venezuelan crude into oil that refineries can process, reduced rates this week because they ran out of space to store crude, according to people with knowledge of the situation. With few buyers willing to take PDVSA’s oil, the alternative was to put some of that oil onto tankers to clear space and continue to operate at lower rates. The backlog of ships and the growing difficulty in keeping its oil upgraders running underscore the impact U.S. sanctions are having on PDVSA. Shipments to America, once Venezuela’s largest customer, have dried up. Without access to the U.S. financial system, on which many refiners and trading houses rely on to finance purchases, PDVSA is having trouble finding buyers outside of countries such as India and China, to whom it owes oil in payment for past loans. The PDVSA-Rosneft joint-venture PETROMONAGAS upgrader isn’t processing oil after running out of space to store their production, a person with knowledge of the situation said. PDVSA-CHEVRON’s PETROPIAR venture has reduced output for the same reason, other people said. PETROCEDENO, a PDVSA-TOTAL-EQUINOR venture, is running out of oil to process as a ban on sales of heavy naphtha to PDVSA has made it difficult to ship the heavy oil through pipelines from inland fields to the upgrader, another person said. (FORTUNE: http://fortune.com/2019/02/26/venezuela-crude-sanctions-ships/)

 

Venezuela oil sanctions slash Brent crude premium

The U.S. sanctions on Venezuela from late last month cut off more heavy and sour crude oil supply to the global market, leading to the lowest premium of quality light sweet Brent over heavier and sour crude grades because of limited heavy oil supply worldwide. At times when supply of various crude grades is not distorted, Brent usually trades at a premium of US$ 3-$4 a barrel over Dubai, but since January, the premium of Brent over Dubai has been consistently below US$ 1 a barrel. To top off the sanctions on Iran and the OPEC cuts, the U.S. sanctions on Venezuela at the end of January further tightened the heavy crude market, and traders expect the market to tighten even more in the coming months. Despite initial expectations that the Venezuelan oil that would have gone to the U.S. could easily make way to Asia, the nature of the U.S. sanctions have effectively turned the U.S. import ban into financial sanctions applicable globally. In the middle of February, the April Brent premium to Dubai Exchange Futures for Swaps (EFS)—generally seen as the spot market sentiment of Brent-linked and Dubai-linked crude grades—fell to the lowest on record, since S&P Global Platts started publishing data about the spread in August 2011. (Oil Price: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Venezuela-Oil-Sanctions-Slash-Brent-Crude-Premium.html)

 

Commodities

Fishing halted on Venezuelan coast

In an unusual move, Venezuelan military are stopping fishermen from setting sail from docks in Vargas state near Caracas. More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/caracas/33938/refuerzan-muelles-pesqueros-de-vargas-tras-prohibicion-de-zarpe)

 

Economy & Finance

National Assembly asks CITIGROUP for 90-day extension on gold foreclosure

Venezuela’s opposition led National Assembly has asked CITIGROUP for a 90-day extension before it forecloses on Venezuelan gold reserves held with the Bank of England as collateral on a US$ 1.1 billion debt. The request was made by the Assembly’s standing Finance Committee, headed by congressman Angel Alvarado, who said CITIGROUP is “willing to cooperate”. More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/33859/plazo-de-90-dias-pide-an-a-citigroup-para-cobrar-deuda-en-oro)

 

Evolving Venezuela sanctions pose problems for banks

Recently imposed sanctions on Venezuela have posed new compliance risks for U.S. and international financial institutions as they seek to untangle business ties between the two countries to meet evolving requirements. The Treasury Department has ramped up sanctions with more designations and guidance in recent weeks. Gradually increasing U.S. measures targeting the government of Venezuela, and the country’s state-owned oil giant have made banks more reluctant to touch accounts that might relate to Venezuela for fear of sanctions violations. The scenario is complex because of the economic and business connections between the two countries has a foundation in the oil-and-gas industry, which can affect automobile and heavy machinery manufacturing, as well as elements of insurance and finance. Intricacies stemming from the sanctions are particularly disruptive for the banking industry, said Daniel Gutierrez, who chairs the anti-money-laundering compliance committee at the Florida International Bankers Association. In the case of Venezuela, where the list of the Maduro government officials is broad and unclear, and where PDVSA has many subsidiaries and tends to outsource to third-party vendors, banks are finding they need to pull more resources to holistically analyze each instance on a case-by-case basis. If not carefully managed, banks could face penalties and reputational damage. (The Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/articles/evolving-venezuela-sanctions-pose-problems-for-banks-11551143320)

 

Politics and International Affairs

UN Security Council to meet on Venezuela after deadly clashes

The UN Security Council is due to meet today to discuss Venezuela, following weekend violence over a failed opposition bid to bring in humanitarian aid. The United States requested the meeting to be held in open session this evening. The request came as US Vice President Mike Pence travelled to Colombia to meet opposition leader Juan Guaidó in a show of support for his bid to replace President Nicolás Maduro. The Security Council is divided over Venezuela. The U.S. and many Western and Latin American nations back opposition leader Juan Guaidó as interim president, while Russia, China and other countries support President Nicolas Maduro and oppose any interference in Venezuela's internal affairs. (RTE: https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0226/1032860-venezuela/; ABC News: https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/latest-germany-urges-pressure-maduro-61299953

 

Lima Group asks International Criminal Court to provide assessment of Venezuela situation

The Lima Group on Monday asked the International Criminal Court (ICC) to make an assessment of the situation in crisis-torn Venezuela, proposing that Venezuela's partners help organize "free elections" in the country. "We have decided to turn to the International Criminal Court with a request to take into account the grave humanitarian situation in Venezuela, the criminal violence of Nicolas Maduro's regime against civilians and the denial of access to international aid, which is a crime against humanity", the statement said. The Lima Group of 14 countries was created in 2017 and currently seeks to end the political crisis in Venezuela. The group includes Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Costa Rica, Chile, Guyana, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru and Saint Lucia. The majority of the organization's member states are backing Guaidó. (SPUTNIK: https://sputniknews.com/latam/201902261072735401-lima-group-venezuela-intl-court-situation/)

 

Guaidó and Pence agree to tighten noose on Maduro, as Guaidó says he will return to Venezuela

US Vice President Mike Pence announced fresh US sanctions against allies of Nicolas Maduro on Monday, after meeting with Latin American leaders including Venezuela's interim president Juan Guaidó in Colombia. "The tragic events of this past weekend have only steeled the resolve of the United States of America to stand with you, to stand with freedom-loving people in Venezuela," Pence told Guaidó at the Lima group meeting in Colombia's capital Bogota. Pence also urged other Latin American countries to freeze the assets of PDVSA, Venezuela's state-owned oil company, and to restrict visas for officials close to Maduro. "Effective today, the United States will impose additional sanctions on regime officials, including three border state governors implicated in last weekend's violence and a member of Maduro's inner circle," he said, adding that the US stands with Guaidó "100 percent". Guaidó, who is recognized by most Western nations as Venezuela's legitimate leader, called on all foreign powers "to consider all options in ousting Maduro". "Just days ago, as the world watched, the tyrant in Caracas danced as his henchmen burned truckloads of food and medicine, and murdered civilians," Pence said, and added that the U.S. will stand by Guaidó until freedom is restored and promised tougher measures against this nation soon. "In the days ahead ... the United States will announce even stronger sanctions on the regime's corrupt financial networks," Pence said. "We will work with all of you to find every last dollar that they stole and work to return it to Venezuela." Pence also said the U.S. is sending another US$ 56 million to Venezuela's neighbors to help them cope with the influx of migrants from Venezuela. If Maduro remains in charge of Venezuela, Pence said he expects it will result in two million more refugees. The European Union on Sunday condemned the government's use of violence and armed civilians to block the aid entry, while UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said he was "shocked and saddened" by the civilian deaths. During Monday's meeting, Guaidó, who was sitting next to Pence, asked for a moment of silence for those who were killed over the weekend. Guaidó warned that "indulging" Maduro "would be a threat to all of America," while Colombia President Ivan Duque called for "more powerful and effective" pressure on the socialist leader.  Pence reiterated that "all options are on the table" — a phrase that has been repeated by Trump administration officials since the U.S. recognized Guaidó as the legitimate leader of Venezuela in January. Guaidó has adopted similar language and urged the Lima Group to consider "all options" in ousting Maduro. But both Guaidó and Trump administration officials have stopped of calling for U.S. troops on the ground. In a statement following Monday's meeting, the Lima Group demanded that the Maduro leave his post immediately and make way for a democratic transition that included free elections. Guaidó accused Maduro's government of turning the country into "the sanctuary of terrorists." Having defied a government travel ban to got to Colombia on Friday, Guaidó said he would return home "this week," with the Lima Group warning he faced "serious and credible threats" from the regime. Maduro has told ABC News that Guaidó must “face justice” if he decides to return because he had a Supreme Court order against leaving the country. (NPR: https://www.npr.org/2019/02/25/697638242/pence-on-venezuela-we-will-keep-standing-until-your-libertad-is-restored; Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/ramps-pressure-venezuela-maduro-sanctions-190225173549450.html; Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics/venezuelas-Guaidó-says-all-options-open-after-maduro-blocks-aid-idUSKCN1QC091;

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics/after-venezuelan-troops-block-aid-maduro-faces-diplomatic-siege-idUSKCN1QD0LX NBC News: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/colombia-vice-president-pence-announce-clear-actions-against-venezuela-s-n975621; Philadelphia Star: https://www.philstar.com/world/2019/02/26/1896883/venezuelas-Guaidó-and-pence-agree-tighten-noose-maduro#Yxo5IppGTKzRk1dL.99 and more in Spanish: El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/politica/34120/maduro-asegura-que-Guaidó-debera-responder-a-la-justicia-cuando-vuelva-al-pais)

 

US sanctions pro-Maduro governors who blocked international aid

The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has designated four officials aligned with the illegitimate regime of former President Nicolas Maduro. This action, taken pursuant to Executive Order (E.O.) 13692, targets the Governors of four Venezuelan states involved in endemic corruption and in blocking the delivery of critical humanitarian aid, thereby exacerbating the ongoing humanitarian crisis caused by the illegitimate Maduro regime. “The illegitimate Maduro regime’s attempts to blockade international aid intended for the Venezuelan people are shameful. Treasury is targeting four state governors aligned with former President Maduro for standing in the way of severely needed humanitarian assistance and prolonging the suffering of the Venezuelan people,” said Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin. “The United States fully supports the efforts of Interim President Juan Guaidó to address the endemic corruption, human rights abuses, and violent repression that has become the hallmark of the illegitimate Maduro regime, and looks forward to the restoration of a democratically elected government for the people of Venezuela.” As a result of today’s action, all property and interests in property of these individuals, and of any entities that are owned, directly or indirectly, 50 percent or more by these individuals, that are in the United States or in the possession or control of U.S. persons are blocked and must be reported to OFAC. OFAC’s regulations generally prohibit all dealings by U.S. persons or within (or transiting) the United States that involve any property or interests in property of blocked or designated persons. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2475341&CategoryId=10717)

 

Maduro extends deadline for US Embassy closure

On Saturday, Nicolás Maduro for a second time extended the deadline for shutting down the US Embassy in Caracas. US authorities say this extensión is now for 30 more days.  Maduro’s Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza claimed on Twitter that both countries had agreed to establish interest section offices in Caracas and Washington for migratory and bilateral affairs. More in Spanish: (Noticiero Venevisión, http://www.noticierovenevision.net/noticias/politica/gobierno-nacional-extiende-el-plazo-para-el-cierre-de-la-embajada-de-eeuu-en-caracas)

 

Maduro responsible for safety of Colombian embassy staff: minister

Nicolas Maduro is responsible for the safety of Colombian diplomats in Venezuela, Colombia’s foreign minister said on Saturday, after Maduro formally broke off relations with Bogota. “Colombia holds the usurper Maduro responsible for any aggression or violation of the rights of Colombian officials in Venezuela,” Foreign Minister Carlos Holmes Trujillo said. Luis Almagro, secretary general of the Organization of American States, said in the same statement that Maduro, socialist, could not break relations with Colombia because he is not Venezuela’s legitimate president. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-colombia-maduro/maduro-responsible-for-safety-of-colombian-embassy-staff-minister-idUSKCN1QC0UL)

 

In Colombia, Pence lets Guaidó down easy on use of military force against Maduro

Vice President Mike Pence flew into Colombia on Monday as an anxious hemisphere waited to hear if the leader from America would back the Venezuelan opposition’s call to use “force” to bring humanitarian aid into the country. Opposition leader Juan Guaidó, who was barred from leaving Venezuela, had secretly crossed the border amid violent clashes between demonstrators and security forces for a special meeting Monday with Pence and regional leaders. What Pence ended up telling the young Venezuelan leader was not necessarily what he traveled so far to hear: Pence told Guaidó the Trump administration still believes in a peaceful resolution. “We got a long way to go,” Pence said he told him. “I made it clear to President Guaidó that we’re going to continue to call on allies to join with us. We’re going to continue to isolate Maduro economically and diplomatically until democracy is restored.” Many in the region breathed a sigh of relief after fearing that Pence was going to support the call for military action. Diplomats acknowledge that the strongest steps have already been taken and fear is growing that momentum against the government of Nicolas Maduro may be stalling. But governments that oppose using force say there are diplomatic options yet to be considered. One diplomat whose government opposes any kind of military option said there have been conversations with U.S. officials about forcing Venezuelan diplomats loyal to Maduro to choose between remaining in their countries or returning home. Pence said ultimately it would be up to Trump, in consultation with allies, to decide under what conditions a military option would be appropriate. Pence said Guaidó wanted to make sure that all options remained on the table. “I assured him that they were, but we hope for better,” Pence said. “We hope for a peaceful transition.” Using military force would be a drastic escalation, but José Cárdenas, who served in the National Security Council under George W. Bush and regularly speaks with Trump administration officials, said it needs to be discussed. “We can’t just walk away,” Cárdenas said. “In order to sustain the pressure, you have to keep one-upping what the government does.” (The Miami Herald: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article226784504.html)

 

US increasingly isolated as allies warn against use of military force

US vice-president Mike Pence has repeated a veiled threat of military intervention in Venezuela, but Washington appeared increasingly isolated in its willingness to contemplate using force to oust Nicolás Maduro. Both European powers and some of Donald Trump’s key Latin American allies – all of whom have recognized opposition leader Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s legitimate leader – warned that they would oppose sending troops into the country. Guaidó had for weeks insisted his movement was focused on peaceful, democratic change. But after the opposition failed in a weekend bid to defy Caracas and bring aid into the country, he called on the international community to “keep all options open”. Speaking at an emergency summit of regional leaders in the Colombian capital Bogotá, Pence renewed the threat of intervention, describing Maduro as “a usurper”, and calling for a global push to oust him. “To leaders around the world: it’s time. There can be no bystanders in Venezuela’s struggle for freedom,” he said. “We hope for a peaceful transition to democracy, but as President Trump has made clear, all options are on the table.” But beyond the US, few appear willing embrace the prospect of violence.  Brazil’s vice-president, retired general Hamilton Mourão, said on Monday that under no circumstances would his country allow the United States to intervene militarily from Brazilian territory, even though the country’s rightwing president Jair Bolsonaro has previously vowed to do “everything for democracy to be re-established” in Venezuela. Colombian president Iván Duque has also now ruled out intervention, according to sources in his administration. Chile and Peru were also among other regional powers opposing military action on Monday. 'Let's hope that the pressure of the international community, dialogue and prudence will prevail,' said Panamanian President Juan Carlos Varela, who likened the crisis in Venezuela to what his country faced in the run up to the 1989 U.S. invasion to remove dictator Manuel Noriega. 'Although the circumstances are similar, we must have the capacity to find a solution different than the one used back then.' There was similar concern across the Atlantic, where European nations including Spain and Germany made clear they considered the deployment of troops a line that should not be crossed. Spain would 'roundly condemn' use of force in Venezuela: “Not every option is on the table,” the country’s foreign minister, Josep Borrell, said in a blunt rebuke to supporters of intervention. The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, insisted there could be no military solution to a political crisis. The Lima group also said credible threats have been made against the life of Venezuelan opposition leader Guaidó and his family, adding that Nicolas Maduro was responsible for Guaidó’s safety. “We want to hold the usurper Maduro responsible for any violent action against Guaidó, against his wife and against their relatives,” said Colombian Foreign Minister Carlos Holmes Trujillo, speaking on behalf of the group. (The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/25/venezuela-mike-pence-maduro-Guaidó; Daily Mail: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6743013/Venezuelas-second-command-flies-two-children-China-using-wifes-surname.html; Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-25/venezuela-neighbors-push-back-against-military-answer-to-crisis)

 

Russia accuses U.S. of preparing military intervention in Venezuela

A top Russian security official on Tuesday accused the United States of deploying forces in Puerto Rico and Colombia in preparation for a military intervention in Venezuela to topple Moscow’s ally, President Nicolas Maduro.  “...The United States is preparing a military invasion of an independent state,” Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of the Russian Security Council, was quoted as saying in an interview. “The transfer of American special operations forces to Puerto Rico, the landing of U.S. forces in Colombia and other facts indicate the Pentagon is reinforcing its troops in the region in order to use them in an operation to remove ... Maduro from power.” Patrushev said in the interview that Washington had asked Moscow for consultations on Venezuela and that Russia had agreed, but that U.S. officials had repeatedly postponed them under false pretexts. U.S. officials have previously dismissed Russian allegations about U.S. plans for Venezuela as baseless “propaganda.” (Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-russia/russia-accuses-us-of-preparing-military-intervention-in-venezuela-idUSKCN1QF14K)

 

China says hopes world provides 'constructive' help to Venezuela

China hopes that the international community can provide “constructive” help to Venezuela based on respect for the country’s sovereignty, the foreign ministry said on Monday, after Venezuelan troops repelled foreign aid convoys. China hopes Venezuela can remain peaceful and calm, the Foreign Ministry said, and reiterated Beijing’s opposition to foreign interference in Venezuela’s internal affairs or the use of “so-called ‘humanitarian aid’ for political aims”. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-china/china-says-hopes-world-provides-constructive-help-to-venezuela-idUSKCN1QE0YW)

 

Mexico President says committed to non-intervention on Venezuela

Mexico's president on Tuesday said he remained committed to a policy of non-intervention on Venezuela a day after U.S. Vice President Mike Pence urged Mexico to recognize opposition leader Juan Guaidó as Venezuela's rightful president. President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador at his regular morning news conference urged all sides in Venezuela to seek a peaceful solution to the crisis and said the United Nations should be used to help resolve a dispute over humanitarian aid. (The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2019/02/26/world/americas/26reuters-venezuela-politics-mexico.html)

 

Sanders warns against intervention in Venezuela, stops short of calling Maduro a 'dictator'

Sen. Bernie Sanders on Monday night steered clear of calling Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro a "dictator", despite criticizing Maduro's government for failing to hold democratic elections. "It's fair to say the last election was undemocratic, but there are still democratic operations taking place in that country," Sanders said after being asked by CNN's Wolf Blitzer why he wouldn't use the term to describe Maduro. "What I am calling for right now is internationally supervised free elections."  Sanders was asked about his opposition to U.S. intervention in Venezuela. He responded by saying he believed there should be an “international humanitarian effort” to improve the lives of Venezuelans and expressed that their last election was “not free and fair.” (CNN: https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/25/politics/bernie-sanders-venezuela-maduro/index.html; FOX: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bernie-sanders-refuses-to-call-venezuelas-maduro-dictator-says-democratic-operations-taking-place)

 

UN’s Michelle Bachelet condemned violence at Venezuela’s borders

Michelle Bachelet, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, has condemned what she called the excessive use of force by Venezuelan security forces and pro-regime groups on the borders with Colombia and Brazil, causing at least 4 dead and over 300 wounded. She pointed to “deplorable scenes” and asked the Maduro regime to “stop using excessive force against unarmed protesters and ordinary citizens”. She asked the regime to stop pro-government groups involved in violent actions. More in Spanish: (Noticiero Venevisión, http://www.noticierovenevision.net/noticias/internacional/michelle-bachelet-condeno-la-violencia-en-las-fronteras-de-venezuela)

 

European Union condemns Maduro regime’s use of “armed groups” to “intimidate civilians”

The European Union has condemned violence in Venezuela and the Maduro regime’s use of “armed groups” to block the entrance of humanitarian aid. “We reject the use of irregular armed groups to intimidate civilians and legislators who seek to distribute aid”. More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/politica/33966/union-europea-condena-que-gobierno-recurra-a-grupos-armados-para-intimidar-civiles)

 

Uncertainty at Colombia-Venezuela border bridge after clashes over aid

Dawn broke on Sunday at the Simon Bolivar bridge, the main border crossing point between Colombia and Venezuela, amid a tense and uncertain calm after a clash between Venezuelans – many of them shouting and calling for their country’s “freedom” – who were trying to bring humanitarian aid into their country and authorities taking orders from Caracas. There were sporadic clashes between hooded protesters and police, supported by armed civilian "colectivos" on Sunday on the Venezuelan side of the border. On the order of Colombian President Ivan Duque, the bridge linking the Colombian city of Cucuta with Venezuela’s San Antonio del Tachira was closed for two days while the damage resulting from the failed aid delivery attempt is evaluated. The area near the bridge was cordoned off and is being guarded by Colombian soldiers, police and some members of the ESMAD anti-riot squadron. In addition, the bridge is being blocked on the Venezuelan side by a tanker truck, with a number of masked men deployed in the area along the Tachira River on the Colombian side. Scores of Venezuelans who managed to slip across the border to get aid were trapped there as Venezuelan authorities closed it. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2475334&CategoryId=10717; http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2475324&CategoryId=10717)

 

In Venezuela, bows and arrows against tanks, four people reported slain on Venezuela-Brazil border

Nicolas Maduro’s forces in Venezuela armed with tanks and live fire attacked an indigenous tribe armed only with bows and arrows when they tried to stop a convoy of humanitarian aid from Brazil. One woman from the Pemon tribe was killed and 15 were wounded, but the tribe took several soldiers, including three lieutenants and a sergeant captive. The battle took place in the remote Gran Sabana region near the Brazilian border. The Pemon were successful at stopping the anti-riot troops in their effort to block food and supplies from entering the country through Brazil near the village of Kumarakapay, about 50 miles north of the border. The soldiers tried to breach barricades set up by residents about 6 a.m., said Jorge Perez, mayor of the Gran Sabana municipality. Marcel Perez, a 30-year-old Pemon, said in an interview in Pacaraima, Brazil, that he and others had gathered at dawn for a peaceful protest to prevent the military from reaching the border. “We made a blockade, without any weapon but our traditional bows and arrows,” he said. “They had tanks, buses and a lot of soldiers. And, so they decided to shoot at us with live bullets.” Five armored vehicles passed by, spewing tear gas that set fire to a small shack, the mayor said. Those wounded more seriously were allowed to cross on ambulances into Brazil so they could be treated in the regional center of Boa Vista. Perez said he was beaten with sticks a few hours later by members of a pro-Maduro gang while taking other wounded people to a hospital in Santa Elena de Uairen, on the Venezuelan side. Police said Zoraida Rodriguez, 45, was killed and 15 people were wounded. A Venezuelan general was negotiating with the tribe for the return of three lieutenants and a sergeant captured by the indigenous forces. The Venezuelan Congress with its opposition majority reported on Saturday that by 4:00 pm, four people had been slain while more than 20 suffered bullet wounds on Venezuela’s border with Brazil. (WND: https://www.wnd.com/2019/02/in-venezuela-bows-and-arrows-against-tanks/#06mCVSLVHotB8Xep.99; Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2475312&CategoryId=10718; Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-aid-brazil/two-people-killed-in-venezuelan-town-near-brazil-in-clashes-over-aid-idUSKCN1QC0U5)

 

Attacked and powerless, Venezuela soldiers choose desertion

A high-stakes plan by the Venezuelan opposition to bring humanitarian aid into the country floundered Saturday when troops loyal to Maduro refused to let the trucks carrying food and medical supplies cross, but it did set off a wave of military defections unlike any seen yet amid the country's mounting crisis. Over 270 mostly low-ranking soldiers fled in a span of three days, Colombian immigration officials said Monday. In interviews with The Associated Press, nine National Guard soldiers described the day that they were ordered by commanders to stop the humanitarian aid from entering Venezuela. Fearful of being jailed, many complied with orders and admitted to launching tear gas at protesters. Two said they were part of a failed plot to get the aid in. All fled after making unplanned, split-second decisions with only the uniform on their backs. While interim president Juan Guaidó has proposed amnesty to military officers who back him, the low-ranking soldiers who have defected say breaking ranks with Maduro is all but impossible. Anyone who shows the slightest hint of disapproval risks arrest, they said, and jail has become increasingly synonymous with torture. Even those who wanted to see the aid brought in, followed orders to repress citizens. As Saturday grew increasingly tense, protesters threw rocks and gasoline bombs at him. One said he responded by throwing tear gas at them to protect himself. Others at the home also had evidence of the resistance they faced that day: Torres still had blood caked beneath the skin on his nose from protesters kicking him on the ground after he surrendered to Colombian authorities. A young woman had a scratch across her cheek that she said came from a rock thrown by protesters. During the clashes, armed pro-Maduro groups known as "colectivos" fired indiscriminately, and several of the soldiers said they feared being shot themselves. National Guard troops are equipped with crowd-control devices like rubber bullets and tear gas but do not carry any regular firearms. Many said they worry their wives and children will face repercussions and they are concerned about how they will make ends meet. Nearly all the defectors would support a foreign intervention in Venezuela and join in the fight. Floating ideas among each other, several of the defectors said they believe the best way forward is for more troops to desert and help form a resistance from abroad. Some envisioned an intervention led solely by Venezuelans, while others are convinced it can only be done with the help of an international coalition. All said they don't see themselves as traitors, but rather as troops intent on restoring Venezuela's democracy. (Fox News: https://www.foxnews.com/world/attacked-and-powerless-venezuela-soldiers-choose-desertion)

 

Venezuela ex-spy chief reveals Maduro’s ties to Hezbollah, drugs

Former head of Venezuela’s intelligence services General Hugo Carvajal revealed powerful ties between the administration of Nicolás Maduro and the Hezbollah terrorist group, as well as wide-spread corruption and drug activity, the New York Times reported on Thursday. The nefarious activities were directed by Maduro himself as well as Interior Minister Néstor Reverol and former vice-president Tareck El Aissami. Allegedly, those who were meant to combat drugs were engaged in trafficking them, Carvajal said. El Aissami was not only a drug kingpin, said Carvajal, but also had connections to Hezbollah, and attempted to arrange Hezbollah terrorists to work with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia [FARC] through Venezuela. In a meeting that took place in 2009 Hezbollah terrorists met El Aissami and Carvajal in Syria and gave the two Venezuelan state representatives three assault rifles as gifts. The meeting involved Venezuelan diplomat Ghazi Nasr al-Din, who was stationed in Syria at the time.  Labeled “a Hezbollah supporter” by the department of Treasury, Nasr al-Din is wanted by the FBI. (The Jerusalem Post: https://www.jpost.com/OMG/Venezuela-ex-spy-chief-reveals-Maduros-ties-to-Hezbollah-drugs-581615)

 

UNIVISION journalists freed after being detained at Venezuelan presidential palace

The UNIVISION network said six of its staffers, including veteran anchorman Jorge Ramos, were briefly detained at the presidential palace in Caracas, Venezuela, on Monday. Ramos and the crew members were released a little less than three hours after the episode began. Daniel Coronell, UNIVISION's president of news, tweeted that "Jorge Ramos and his team have been released and are on route to their hotel." In Caracas, the Venezuelan National Union of the Press Workers also confirmed that "the UNIVISION team has been freed." The network said Ramos was in Caracas to interview Nicolas Maduro. UNIVISION spokesman Jose Zamora said Maduro objected to Ramos' questions. "Very shortly into the interview, Maduro didn't like the line of questioning, and they stopped the interview," Zamora said. He said government aides confiscated the network's equipment. UNIVISION's news executives were able to find out what happened, he said, because "Jorge managed to call us." But "in the middle of the call, they took his phone away. UNIVISION is the leading Spanish-language television network in the United States, with millions of loyal viewers. The network immediately contacted the US State Department. Kimberly Breier, the Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs, tweeted out, "We insist on their immediate release; the world is watching." After the team was released, UNIVISION broke into programming for a special report — with Ramos joining by phone. He said Maduro "got up from the interview after I showed him the videos of some young people eating out of a garbage truck." "They interrogated us. They put us in a security room. They turned off the lights," he said. Ramos called the episode a "violation." He said Maduro's aides still had the tapes. "They have stolen our work and are trying to keep what is happening from airing," he said. Pedro Ultreras, a member of the UNIVISION team in Venezuela, tweeted late Monday that immigration officials told the journalists that they will be expelled from Venezuela and must leave Tuesday morning. "The hotel we are staying in is surrounded by Venezuelan authorities, we cannot go outside," he said. Ramos, a veteran anchor born in Mexico, said he asked Maduro about the lack of democracy in Venezuela, the torture of political prisoners and the country’s humanitarian crisis. Mexico’s Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard also tweeted his government’s protest at the events. (CNN: https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/25/media/univision-venezuela-jorge-ramos/index.html; Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-univision/venezuela-to-deport-univision-team-after-maduro-shown-garbage-eating-video-idUSKCN1QF05F

 

Maduro's right-hand man sends his two youngest children to China

Venezuela's second-most powerful man has sent his children to China amid the possibility Nicolás Maduro's government will crumble.  Diosdado Cabello, known to be the second most-powerful man in Venezuela behind President Nicolás Maduro, sent two of his three children to China. Airline boarding passes showed different names for Cabello's daughter, Daniella Cabello, and his youngest son, Tito Cabello, raising suspicions because his wife's surname - Contreras - was on the boarding passes. Both children boarded the Havana to Beijing flight as Desiree Contreras and Tito Contreras, apparently using their mother's surname to hide their identities. The siblings left Havana on Friday and made it to Moscow on Saturday before connecting to a Beijing-bound flight that touched down Sunday- Daniella Cabello, 22, boarded the plane with a US-issued passport as Desiree (her middle name) Contreras while his son Tito Cabello, 17, used a Ugandan passport and used the name Tito Contreras.  The reservation system indicates they're both scheduled to return to Havana on a one-stop flight March 12. In recent days, it has been reported that several Maduro loyalists successfully arranged to have their immediate family members flee what once was considered one of the most economically powerful countries in South America. (Daily Mail: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6743013/Venezuelas-second-command-flies-two-children-China-using-wifes-surname.html)

 

OP-ED: Dictator Maduro survived a tough week, but his problems are about to get worse

The conventional wisdom in some quarters is that Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro has proved in recent days that he’s in firm control of his military goons and that he will be able to stay in power indefinitely. The conventional wisdom may be wrong. Maduro’s problems will get worse. With or without a military intervention, his illegitimate regime is cornered, isolated and increasingly unsustainable. Maduro danced in public on Feb. 23, but that image is going to haunt him. First, Maduro’s international isolation will continue to grow. Interim president Juan Guaidó is reportedly planning to return to Venezuela. If he’s arrested by the Maduro regime, we may see even stiffer international sanctions. Second, the Maduro regime’s foreign income will dwindle in coming months, as U.S. and international sanctions kick in. Third, Maduro does not have a superpower that will be willing to support him an at any cost.  Fourth, it’s unclear for how much longer Venezuela’s armed forces will stand behind Maduro. Most of the uniformed Venezuelan soldiers who blocked humanitarian aid and fired on unarmed opposition volunteers at the Colombian-Venezuelan border on Feb. 23 were not members of the army or National Guard. They were part of Maduro’s paramilitary forces. Fifth, while no U.S. or international military intervention is likely anytime soon, there might be growing pressure for a United Nations intervention if Venezuela’s humanitarian crisis continues to deteriorate. Virtually all Latin American and European countries that support Guaidó — including Colombia and Brazil — said Monday that they won’t back a U.S. or international military intervention. But if Venezuela’s humanitarian crisis continues to worsen, that could change. Barring a miracle Maduro’s political future doesn’t look good. He will be under growing domestic and foreign pressure to agree to a political solution that will most likely include his departure. By Andres Oppenheimer (The Miami Herald: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/andres-oppenheimer/article226777084.html)

 

OP-ED: What’s next for Venezuela?

Scenes of destruction and despair were on full display worldwide over the weekend as the Maduro regime used force to deny entry into Venezuela of desperately needed humanitarian assistance, leading to increasing speculation about what comes next. Or, rather, will the United States invade Venezuela to topple the despotic regime that has ruined Latin America’s once-wealthiest economy and created Latin America’s worst humanitarian crisis in many years. The threat of invasion has increasingly been implied, with senior U.S. administration officials suggesting routinely that “all options are on the table.” Indeed, they are, as they always are in the conduct of foreign affairs. But the implication is clearly that if Maduro and his inner circle refuse to depart, then the use of force may be employed. However, as bad as the situation continues to get in Venezuela an armed response is unlikely. First, there is no casus belli that would justify a U.S.-led invasion. Nor is there a mandate from the United Nations or OAS. The doctrine of Responsibility to Protect is not sufficiently developed or accepted at this point, and circumstances do not yet justify its application to Venezuela in any event. Latin American nations, including those that support strong actions against Maduro, have publicly indicated little support for armed intervention, and, despite the rhetoric, there does not appear to be much enthusiasm in Washington for such a step. What can be anticipated is that there will be further intensified pressure on the regime. In addition to efforts to entice regime officials, including the military, to shift their loyalty from Maduro to Guaidó, the United States, in coordination with other nations, looks to amplify asset seizure and forfeiture. Collectively, they aim to deny new and cancel existing visas for regime officials and their families and increase humanitarian assistance. All these activities will further the goal of turning Maduro into an international pariah, and, it is hoped, create conditions that will ultimately see him turfed from office. The key is to keep the Maduro regime on the defensive. There are no guarantees, and nobody can say when the dam will ultimately break—or if it will break. Meanwhile, Venezuelans face an unpleasant choice between protesting and exposing themselves to the excesses of the regime, hunkering down, or joining the millions of Venezuelans who have already left their nation behind. It is a tragedy lain squarely at the feet of Chavismo. By Eric Farnsworth. (The National Interest: https://nationalinterest.org/feature/what%E2%80%99s-next-venezuela-45577)