Economics &
Finance
End of election campaign spurs bond
trading
Venezuelan bond sales have been fueled by rising
expectations that Capriles is gaining on incumbent President Chavez, and thus
have raised bond prices. More in Spanish: (El Mundo, 10-02-2012; http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/economia/politicas-publicas/recta-final-de-la-campana-provoca-mayor-demanda-po.aspx)
Rise in Venezuelan gov't expenditure
hits public finances
Official data shows that the Venezuelan oil basket is averaging U$D 105
per barrel. However, the country's international reserves and deposits in US
dollars are dropping, public debt is increasing sharply, state-run oil company PDVSA
is demanding additional financial aid from the Central Bank (BCV), and the
Foreign Exchange Administration Commission (CADIVI) finds itself unable to
provide enough US dollars to citizens and companies. (El Universal, 09-29-2012; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/120929/rise-in-venezuelan-govt-expenditure-lashes-public-finances)
Commodities
Venezuelan oil basket down to U$D
100.58 per barrel
The Ministry of Petroleum and Mining says the price of Venezuela's
oil basket has dropped since last week (U$D 102.76), by 2.12% (U$D 2.18) and
closed at U$D 100.58 per barrel. (El Universal, 09-28-2012; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/120928/venezuelan-oil-basket-down-usd-10058-per-barrel)
Early extraction in the Orinoco Oil
Belt begins
PETROMIRANDA and PETROMACAREO, the former a joint venture with a Russian
consortium and the latter with Vietnam, produced the first samples of
extra-heavy crude oil in each project. PDVSA’s plan is to increase production
of the Oil Belt by 1.2 million barrels per day to 2 million bpd by 2014.
(Veneconomy, 10-01-2012; http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=32274&idc=4)
International Trade
Hugo Chávez rival pledges seismic
shift in foreign policy
The challenger to Hugo Chávez in the Venezuelan
presidential election has vowed a dramatic change in foreign policy if he is
elected next Sunday, shifting his country away from China and Russia and
reviewing crucial oil deals. Henrique Capriles, who has gained ground in recent
polls, said he would halt arms purchases from Russia, rethink relations with Iran
and revise deals to exploit one of the world's biggest recoverable oil
resources in the Orinoco belt. In an interview during a campaign stop, Capriles
said he would end the Chávez policy of promoting worldwide revolution and focus
on Venezuela's needs. Polls suggest the race may be tight. Some say Capriles
may be leading by two points. If the results are close many fear a period of
instability. Capriles has said he will win by a wide margin and a transition
will be peaceful. " (The Guardian, 09-30-2012; http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/sep/30/venezuela-chavez-challenger-election-pledges)
China’s Development Bank has lent
Venezuela U$S 42.5 billion since
2007 with the collateral guarantee of revenues from the world’s greatest oil
reserves, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from agreements announcements
by President Chávez’ government. This month, Chávez said he was seeking a third
line of credit for 2013. (Veneconomy, 09-28-2012; http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=32262&idc=2)
China builds, launches second
satellite for Venezuela government
China has launched a second satellite built for Venezuela's government. The
remote sensing satellite soared into orbit atop a rocket from the northwestern
Chinese province of Gansu. The launch was shown live on Venezuelan TV on Friday
night. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez applauded as he watched alongside aides
in Caracas, congratulating those who worked on the project. (Fox News,
09-29-2012; http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/09/29/china-builds-launches-second-satellite-for-venezuela-government/)
Politics
Hugo Chavez pledges to deepen
socialist policies if re-elected in Venezuela vote
President Hugo Chavez pledged to redouble his efforts to
create a socialist system if re-elected in Sunday’s election, saying the next
six-year term would bring bigger changes.
“We’ve laid the foundations of 21st century socialism and today we
launch, well, the second cycle,” Chavez said. “We’ll launch the second
socialist cycle, from 2013 to 2019, with much more strength.” He is also again
saying he believes he has overcome his cancer. (The Washington Post,
10-01-2012; http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/hugo-chavez-pledges-to-deepen-socialist-policies-if-re-elected-in-venezuela-vote/2012/10/01/a378b3ac-0c2f-11e2-97a7-45c05ef136b2_story.html
and more in Spanish: El Universal; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/121001/president-chavez-reckons-he-beat-cancer-and-is-healthy)
Opposition rallies in massive show
of force for Capriles
Opposition candidate Henrique Capriles, 40, closed his
whirlwind presidential campaign with a massive rally Sunday that clogged the
streets of the capital and left his supporters hoping they might end the
14-year administration of President Hugo Chávez. Capriles has seen his
popularity swell as he’s tried to convince people that they have nothing to
fear from change. In some cases, he’s vowed to push Chávez’s signature
socialist reforms even further. “I haven’t seen a campaign like this since
perhaps 1963,” said Alfredo Weil, a former member of the national election
council, who now runs the election watchdog group Esdata. “The energy he has
put in to it is just staggering.” Capriles has asked voters to judge Chavez’s
priorities after 13 years in power and decide if they were happy with their
lives today. (Miami Herald, 09-30-2012; http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/09/30/v-fullstory/3028039/venezuelas-opposition-rallies.html#storylink=cpy#storylink=cpy;
Univision, http://wires.univision.com/english/article/2012-10-01/surging-capriles-threatens-venezuelas-chavez?refPath=/noticias/america-latina/venezuela/;
Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-01/venezuela-s-capriles-closes-caracas-campaign-as-thousands-march.html;
Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=32277&idc=1)
Two Venezuelan opposition activists
shot dead, OAS Secretary General deplores killings
Gunmen shot and killed two local leaders of parties
backing presidential challenger Henrique Capriles on Saturday in the worst
violence of a volatile campaign before Venezuela's election next weekend.
Capriles' party, Primero Justicia (First Justice), said the gunmen fired from a
van that witnesses identified as belonging to state oil company PDVSA or the
local mayor's office during a rally in the agricultural state of Barinas. The
government of President Hugo Chavez, who is seeking re-election, confirmed the
deaths and vowed the perpetrators would be brought to justice. Interior Minister
Tareck El Aissami said the circumstances of the attack were still under
investigation. OAS Secretary General José Miguel Insulza deplored the killings
and hopes that "democracy will be strengthened" in these elections. (Chicago
Tribune, 10-02-2012; http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-venezuela-electionbre88t006-20120929,0,6079891.story;
and more in Spanish: Tal Cual; http://www.talcualdigital.com/index.html;
El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/121002/insulza-llama-a-venezolanos-a-no-extremar-la-polarizacion-ante-comicio)
Election Fuss: Polling Gaps
Venezuelan polling firms are painting starkly different
pictures of the coming presidential election: One group shows President Hugo
Chávez comfortably ahead, while another shows a tight race. The divide confuses
voters and investors alike ahead of the Oct. 7 poll, in which the nearly
14-year incumbent hopes to win a new six-year term. Mr. Chávez faces Gov.
Henrique Capriles, who has gained ground in recent months by promising to keep
many of the president's popular social programs, but open the economy to more
private investment and crack down on corruption and crime. (The Wall Street Journal,
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444549204578020620791147426.html)
Capriles has identified his future
Vice President, Defense Minister
Henrique Capriles told foreign media he has already
identified his future Executive Vice President, as well as the man who will be
his Minister of Defense - an officer currently active within the national Armed
Forces. According to Rocío San Miguel, who leads Citizen Control, the
announcement is a "powerful message that tells us the Armed Forces are not
"chavista" because there are officers willing to take the position in
his future administration". More in Spanish: (Tal Cual, 10-02-2012; http://www.talcualdigital.com/index.html)
Capriles vows to help Colombia, cool
ties with Iran
Opposition leader Henrique Capriles pledged to help Colombia
in its peace talks with rebels and distance himself from Iran should he defeat
President Hugo Chavez in an increasingly tight race ahead of Sunday's election.
In a press conference he also said he would visit Brazilian President Dilma
Rousseff once elected; and that the United States should review its relations
with nations in the region: "I do not believe the manner in which
relations with the South has been correct; I have said Venezuela will have a
respecful and equal relation, with the United States, as with all
countries". (Reuters, 10-01-2012; http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/01/venezuela-election-idUSL1E8L1BJR20121001
and more in Spanish: Tal Cual; http://www.talcualdigital.com/index.html)
Chavez says he would vote for Obama
if American
President Hugo Chavez has weighed in on the U.S.
presidential race, saying he prefers President Barack Obama. Chavez also said
in a televised interview that aired Sunday that he'd like to have "normal" relations with the U.S.
government. The Venezuelan leader says, in his words, "If I were American,
I'd vote for Obama." (Fox News, 10-01-2012; http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/01/venezuela-chavez-says-would-vote-for-obama-if-american/)
He’s known as the James Carville of
Latin America. But can he help Hugo Chávez?
Ostensibly, this Sunday’s presidential election in
Venezuela is a battle between two native sons: the incumbent, Hugo Chávez, and
his challenger, Henrique Capriles Radonski. Behind the scenes, however, an
equally ferocious clash is taking place between Brazilian campaign strategists,
imported to capture the hearts and minds of Venezuela’s 19 million voters. And
in this contest, the spin maestro to beat is João Santana—Chávez’s friendly
flack, a low-profile, understated intellectual who is quietly rewriting the
book on how to ace elections in Latin America. Santana is to the resurgent
Latin American left what James Carville was for Democrats in the United States
during the 1990s. Unfortunately, for Chávez, Santana’s makeover might not be
enough. Most polls show the president parked below 50 percent and Capriles
closing the gap. In Latin America, even the greatest of kingmakers is only as
good as the man who wears the beret. (The Daily Beast; 09-30-2012; http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2012/09/30/joao-santana-the-latin-american-james-carville.html)
Venezuelan youth could decide if
Chavez remains in power
Angie Rivas grew up in a “Chavista”
household, one so supportive of President Hugo Chavez that family members
participated in the populist leader’s huge rallies and voted with the masses as
he fended off challengers in one election after another. But Rivas, 25, is one
of an increasing number of young Venezuelans who have grown tired of the
rampant crime and moribund economy, the electrical blackouts and Chavez’s
bombastic speeches. This group could be decisive in an election Sunday that
will determine whether Chavez rules until the end of the decade. “I was
only 11 when Chavez got into power,” said Rivas, who is campaigning for
opposition leader Henrique Capriles. “But
there are holes in the roads, you cannot find a job, there is crime and
problems with health care and education. That’s because of 14 years in which
the government hasn’t done anything.” The two sides are fighting over an
ever-expanding and politically energized segment of the population: the
estimated 7.5 million Venezuelans between the ages of 18 and 30 who make up 40%
of the electorate. (The Washington Post, 09-29-2012; http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/venezuelan-youth-could-decide-if-chavez-remains-in-power/2012/09/29/33358164-0a5f-11e2-9eea-333857f6a7bd_story.html)
