International Trade
Cargo that has arrived at Puerto Cabello:
- 30.000 tons of yellow corn for state agency Corporación de Alimentos y Servicios Agrícolas (CASA)
- 4.664 bundles of steel pipes
for state agency PDVSA Industrial
- 2,500 automobiles from China to
be distributed as taxicabs by the government
Cargo that has arrived at Bolipuertos La
Guaira:
- Over 230 containers of food,
medicine and essential goods from Panamá
- 10,000 tons of wheat from
Canada for CARGILL de Venezuela
Oil &
Energy
Iran, Russia reject
idea of joint oil output cuts with Saudi Arabia
Oil-producing countries looked unlikely to
reach a deal to lift languishing prices at a meeting on Friday after Iran, Iraq
and Russia swiftly rejected a surprise proposal that appeared to have been
floated by Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer in the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), was prepared to
propose members cut oil output by 1 million barrels per day next year if
non-OPEC countries joined in, industry publication Energy Intelligence
reported. A Saudi source said later the report was "baseless" but declined further comment and a source at Energy
Intelligence said it stood by its story. OPEC's policy meeting will be held in Vienna
on Friday. OPEC also held a rare informal meeting there on Thursday but the
Saudis made no proposals, according to ministers and delegates. (Reuters: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-opec-meeting-idUSKBN0TL0LY20151203#vP7AMX0QW5l8e2UZ.97)
PDVSA to lower
gasoline, MTBE exports, eliminate diesel imports In December
PDVSA will likely reduce its gasoline and MTBE
imports in December while eliminating diesel imports altogether. December
gasoline imports are estimated at 50,000 bpd, down from 80,000 bpd in November.
MTBE imports should drop by 14,000 bpd to 20,000 bpd if the SuperOctanos MTBE
unit starts up in the first week of December as planned, following a planned
turnaround. The Cardon refinery should run 250,000 bpd crude, after restarting
this week one of 4 crude units following unplanned repairs. Its 25,000-bpd
alkylation unit and 45,000-bpd reformer should be in service. The El Palito
refinery plans to start the FCC during the first week of December, followed by
the alkylation unit. (Energy News Today: http://www.energynewstoday.com/newsite/)
Commodities
Food scarcity rose
from 29.3% to 37.9% over the past 10 months.
The CENDAS think tank reports that 22 out of 58
of the key basic family consumer products have become scarce in stores.
Powdered milk, corn oil and meat are among those more acutely scarce, and the
number of item is growing. If personal care products are considered the number
of scarce items is 51. More in Spanish: (El Nacional: http://www.el-nacional.com/economia/Escasez-alimentos-paso-meses_0_749925180.html)
Economy
& Finance
November inflation was
17.8%, 236.3% projected for 2015
The national consumer price index rose 17.8% in
November, 5.7% above October, according to sources close to Venezuela's Central
Bank, which has been barred from publishing statistics by President Nicolás
Maduro. Projected annual inflation for this year is now 236.3%, the highest in
Venezuela's contemporary history. More in Spanish: (El Nacional: http://www.el-nacional.com/economia/inflacion-noviembre_0_749925178.html)
All Venezuelan bonds posted in average 2%
losses in New York
on Monday, in view of the country’s political uncertainty. A Morgan Stanley’s
report caused anxiety among bond holders by pointing out the victory in this
Sunday’s elections could be by a narrow margin and could go either to the
government or to the opposition. (Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=46407&idc=2)
CONINDUSTRIA urges National
Assembly to legislate on economic matters
Juan Pablo Olalquiaga, President of the
Venezuelan Confederation of Industries (CONINDUSTRIA), says that the "economy is priority", and the
reason why Venezuelans are calling for a change in the National Assembly ,
because they are standing in lines and cannot afford the high prices of
products which are in short supply on store shelves. For these reasons, he urged
the legislature to legislate on economic matters. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/151202/conindustria-urges-venezuelan-congress-to-legislate-on-economic-matter)
Politics and
International Affairs
Chavez's supporters
face rare defeat in Venezuelan elections
Plagued by rampant crime, unbridled corruption and
unprecedented economic contraction, Venezuela elects a new legislature on
Sunday, with the opposition on the verge of a decisive victory for the first
time in 16 years. But rather than propel the country onto a stabler path, the
vote seems just as likely to bog it down into further dysfunction. The gross
domestic product of oil-rich Venezuela will shrink 10% this year -- more than
that of any country in the world -- according to forecasts by the International
Monetary Fund. “In other words, we have
performance so negative it’s comparable to a country at war during a time of
peace,” said Jose Manuel Puente, an economist at Caracas’ Institute of
Advanced Studies in Administration. (Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-02/suffering-venezuelans-lean-to-opposition-in-sunday-congress-vote)
Venezuela heads for
pivotal election, without a referee
U.S. officials and Latin American leaders are
awaiting Venezuela’s parliamentary elections this weekend with trepidation,
worried that instead of defusing the country’s deep tensions, the vote could
instead detonate a new crisis. The ruling socialist party is expected to lose
control of the legislature for the first time since the late Hugo Chávez was
elected president in 1998. Such a defeat would be an unprecedented blow to the
movement known as “Chavismo” that rose to power by electoral means yet views
its uninterrupted rule as part of a “revolution” that dismisses, at least
rhetorically, democratic norms such as alternating power and divided
government. Defiant statements by President Nicolás Maduro and other top
Venezuelan officials have offered few assurances to those looking for signs
that the government is ready to compromise with the opposition. "They are at a dramatic crossroads,” said
a senior U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the
Venezuelan government is quick to label any public criticism by foreigners an
act of “meddling.” “Chavismo expected it would be the dominant
political force for decades, but it has discovered that in democratic
societies, people hold leaders to account,” said the U.S. official. “Ideology and the image of Chávez isn’t
enough to maintain a hold on power.” The leading polls show Maduro’s United
Socialist Party headed for steep losses. But with few international observers
expected to monitor the election, anything other than an opposition win is likely
to produce charges of fraud. The opposition has little faith in the neutrality
of the country’s election officials, and the leading international observer
delegation, from South America’s UNASUR bloc, will be headed by a longtime
Chávez ally, former Dominican president Leonel Fernández. Brazil pulled out of
the delegation last month. The UNASUR group will also lack delegates from Uruguay
and Chile. Analysts have cautioned
against expecting a sweeping opposition victory, noting that the country’s
electoral map favors rural districts where the Chávez movement is still strong.
The government also freely uses state resources to promote its candidates and
bring its supporters to the polls. The government can still count on support
from fervent Chávez devotees, and Maduro has warned them that any vote for the
opposition would be tantamount to a “betrayal”
of the late leader’s legacy. Polls suggest a lot of former Chávez followers are
not buying it. With as much as 95% of Venezuela’s income generated from
petroleum exports and no recovery in sight for oil prices it might not be such
a bad thing for Maduro, politically speaking, to share power with an
opposition-controlled parliament. If he does not, he will continue to bear full
responsibility for the country’s economic debacle. (The Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/venezuela-heads-for-pivotal-election-without-a-referee/2015/11/29/be3f322c-9167-11e5-befa-99ceebcbb272_story.html)
Venezuela’s political
crisis: can regional actors help?
Venezuela’s uncertain future hinges on the
dynamics surrounding the upcoming parliamentary elections. The authoritarian
turn of the government seems to indicate that it is genuinely fearful of losing
the elections. Opinion polls show that the government is unpopular and that its
support is declining rapidly, even among longtime supporters. Probably mindful
of this, the Maduro regime has deliberately harassed the opposition (for
example, jailing its candidates and leaders), silenced the media (revoking licenses
and threatening the media), and manipulated the electoral process (excluding
opposition candidates, threatening voters, avoiding external scrutiny of its
actions, and curbing free media reporting). Statements by officials indicating
that the government may not recognize the results of the elections, moreover,
hint that the government is in no mood to abandon its Bolivarian revolution.
The specter of an increasingly massive crisis with unforeseen consequences is
hence very real. The potential repercussions of such an outcome are immense and
could include intervention by the Venezuelan military, generalized civilian
disobedience by a radicalized opposition, or the eruption of severe civil
unrest with a concomitant forced migration crisis. External actors have thus
far been unable to act in meaningful ways to forestall a serious crisis, with
potentially important domestic and even regional repercussions. In particular,
major South American governments have failed to build a unified front to
pressure the regime to handle the crisis in democratic ways and persuade the
opposition to tone down its demands. This would be critical to help move
Venezuela toward a national dialogue necessary to foster a legitimate response
to its pressing sociopolitical and economic challenges. Powerful nations, in
particular Brazil but also Argentina, Chile, and Colombia, will need to put
pressure upon ALBA countries to modify their unfettered support of the
Venezuelan regime in order to avoid an all-out democratic breakdown. This would
require summoning UNASUR’s Council of Heads of State and Government and
imposing sanctions against the Maduro regime by invoking both UNASUR’s
democratic clause and the OAS’s Inter-American Democratic Charter. Another
potential move could be seeking mediation from beyond the region, including
from the European Union and the United Nations. (Carnegie Endowment: http://carnegieendowment.org/2015/11/30/venezuela-s-political-crisis-can-regional-actors-help/im9t)
REUTERS reports poll
showing Maduro's popularity bouncing before election
Venezuela law prohibits publishing opinion
polls in the week preceding elections, yet according to a survey allegedly
carried out by DATANALISIS and reportedly seen by REUTERS, President Nicolas
Maduro's popularity has jumped in the run-up to Sunday's crucial legislative
election, but probably not enough to prevent an opposition victory. Maduro's
popularity jumped more than 11 points from 21% in October to 32.3% in late
November. However, the Democratic Unity coalition, which groups all main
opposition parties, remains in pole position, with 55.6% planning to back the
opposition, and 36.8% the government, the survey said. "The main uncertainty is not whether
'Chavismo' or the opposition will win, but what type of majority the opposition
will obtain," Leon added in an opinion article this week, saying
Maduro's popularity bounce would not swing the election. A whopping 89.5% are unhappy with the
nation's situation, DATANALISIS said in its survey of 999 people with a margin
of error of 3.04%. But "Chavismo"
retains formidable election mobilization machinery, and some aspects of the
voting system - such as a bigger weighting of seats in rural areas where
government support is stronger - favor them too. The firm's head, Luis-Vicente
Leon, said the ruling "Chavista"
movement had reaped reward for going on the attack against foes, distributing
resources in key districts, and reviving the memory of the popular former
president during the campaign. The government campaign has focused heavily on
accusations that the opposition will dismantle popular Chavez-era welfare
policies. (Reuters: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/12/02/us-venezuela-election-idUSKBN0TL07M20151202#rdXliO1xrgcdrymU.97)
CNE to announce
parliament vote results when "irreversible"
Socorro Hernández, one of the directors of the
Venezuelan National Electoral Council (CNE), says she cannot determine the time
when the local electoral authority will disclose the results of the upcoming
parliament vote on Sunday, December 6, as
Venezuelan laws stipulate that results must be announced when "irreversible." "We cannot determine that (polling stations)
will close at 6:00 pm and results will be given two hours later,"
Hernández said in an interview. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/151202/cne-to-announce-parliament-vote-results-when-irreversible)
UNASUR will be present in 11 states in the country, according to the
Mission’s general coordinator José Luis Exceniy. The 40 electoral mission’s
experts will visit: Capital District, Miranda, Zulia, Táchira, Lara, Aragua,
Carabobo, Bolívar, Monagas, Portuguesa, and Vargas. (Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=46385&idc=1)
European Parliament did
not send electoral mission to Venezuela for security reasons
The European Parliament (EP) had plans to send
and electoral mission to Venezuela to monitor the upcoming parliament vote on
December 6. However, following an assessment from the European External
Action Service (EEAS) on the country security conditions, they gave up. The
parliament conference of presidents had agreed, by majority, to send the
mission on December 3-7. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/151202/ep-not-to-send-electoral-mission-to-venezuela-for-security-reasons)
IACHR calls for cease
in violence during parliament vote in Venezuela
The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights
(IACHR) urged Venezuela to take measures to stop the increase in violence and
harassment against some political sectors so that the upcoming parliament vote
on December 6 will be held with freedom and security. In a communiqué, IACHR
condemned the murder of opposition leader Luis Manuel Díaz during an act of
electoral campaign, voicing its "deep
condemnation and concern" over the escalation of political violence on
the eve of the parliament election. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/151202/iachr-calls-for-cessation-of-violence-in-parliament-vote-in-venezuela)
In Zulia state, 40,708 voters were moved at the
last minute from
their assigned voting stations as the CNE closed 32 stations due to “deficiencies in the infrastructure,” according
to the state’s Regional Electoral Office’s Chief Marianela González. The CNE
will inform about the relocation of these voters on Thursday. (Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=46384&idc=1)
Leopoldo López demands
voting in parliament election in Venezuela, Elections Board says it has no
request
Opposition leader Leopoldo López, who was
sentenced to a 14-year term in prison, has demanded to exercise his right to
vote in the parliament election on Sunday, December 6. His defense counselor
Juan Carlos Gutiérrez filed a request before a court in Caracas arguing that
López "is not politically
disqualified; his sentence has not been enforced because it is not final and
the appropriate appeal has been made." The President of the National
Electoral Council (CNE), Tibisay Lucena, says that prisoners who have not been
sentenced may cast their ballots in the upcoming parliament vote on December 6,
provided that jails in which they are held in custody serve as polling
stations. "Detainees who are not
convicted have, of course, their political rights," she added. Yet
when Lucena was asked if imprisoned opposition leader Leopoldo López could vote
as requested by his counsel she replied she had not received such request. (El
Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/151201/leopoldo-lopez-demands-voting-in-parliament-election-in-venezuela; and more in Spanish: (El
Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/151202/cne-does-not-expect-lopez-to-vote-in-parliament-election-in-venezuela)
Venezuelan NGO counts
on more than 3,000 volunteers for parliament vote
In reference to the upcoming parliamentary vote
on, Helen Aguiar, President of the Venezuelan Electoral Observers Network
(ROEV), reports the organization has available over 3,000 volunteers in every
state, and that 776 out of those volunteers will be accredited as observers in
all the constituencies. Aguiar explained that any individual may directly
witness the electoral process, yet limited to what the Constitution stipulates.
"Let's remember there are witnesses,
observers, escorts and organizations duly accredited. And those who are not
(accredited), must not be requested to intervene in the polling stations and
encourage violent situations," she stressed. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/151202/venezuelan-ngo-counts-on-more-than-3000-volunteers-for-parliament-vote)
Cabello says National Assembly will accuse
Colombia's President Santos
Captain Diosdado
Cabello, President of Venezuela's National Assembly, has announced he will appoint
a committee to formally charge Colombia's President Juan Manuel Santos and
former President Álvaro Uribe with the death of peasants falsely presented as
guerrillas in that nation. (Ultimas Noticias, http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/actualidad/politica/cabello-crearemos-comision-para-denunciar-a-presid.aspx#ixzz3tFaotPpT;
El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/politica/Cabello-denuncia-presidente-Santos-falsos_positivos_0_749925001.html)
The following brief is a synthesis of the news
as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions
expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and
The Selinger Group.
