International Trade
Argentina’s
Macri says Venezuela may be out of MERCOSUR in December
Argentine President Mauricio Macri says he will meet
with Brazilian President Michel Temer next week and discuss in depth the need
to increase pressure on Venezuela “as
much as possible”. He told media that despite having taken clear stands on
the matter, results become worse by the day, and said that by not complying
with democratic and economic requirements may lead to Venezuela’s exit from
MERCOSUR on December 1st. More in Spanish: (El
Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/politica/Macri-aseguro-Venezuela-Mercosur-diciembre_0_929907299.html)
Oil & Energy
OPEC agrees in principle to limit oil output, only
short term price impact expected
OPEC
agreed on Wednesday to reduce its oil output to 32.5 million bpd from the
current production levels of around 33.24 million bpd. The producing group will
agree concrete levels of production by each country at its next formal meeting
in November. And now, if all members of OPEC strictly comply with their new
quotas, Goldman is predicting a sizable recovery for the price of a barrel of
oil. Oil barrel prices could climb between US$7 and US$10 by the end of the
first half of 2017, according to Goldman Sachs analysts. For this scenario to take place, all other
circumstances on oil markets must remain unchanged. In its report, the Goldman
analyst team noted that it was skeptical about the chances of success for the
freeze deal. The bank pointed out that OPEC members don’t always feel obliged
to stay within quotas, which will contribute to the ongoing uncertainty on oil
markets. Further killing the buzz of its price forecast in the best-case
scenario, the Goldman analysts said that the support that oil prices will see
from the freeze is very likely to be limited to the short term. In other words,
a year from November, prices could be back to the US$ 40-US$ 50 range. This is
probably why Goldman did not revise its average oil price forecast for the rest
of this year and the next: the bank still expects the 2016 average to be US$ 43
and the figure for 2017 to be US$ 53.
(Reuters: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-opec-meeting-decision-details-idUSKCN11Y2F2:
OILPRICE: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Goldman-Sachs-OPEC-Freeze-Could-Add-10-To-Oil-Prices.html)
PDVSA sweetens bond swap terms
Venezuelan
state oil company PDVSA's bonds rose on Tuesday after the company improved the
terms of a swap proposal that had initially met with market misgivings. PDVSA
on Monday increased the ratio of new 2020 bonds it will offer in exchange for
outstanding paper that matures in 2017, potentially boosting the interest of
bondholders that saw the original one-to-one exchange offer as insufficient. The
company's 2017N issue that matures in November 2017 was up 1.800 points to a
bid price of 80.800. The PDVSA 2017 bond maturing in April was up 1.150 points
to bid 77.150%. PDVSA is seeking to swap a maximum of US$ 5.325 billion in 2017
maturities through the plan, helping ease the cash-flow constraints as it
struggles with low oil prices and an unraveling socialist economic system. (Reuters,
http://www.reuters.com/article/venezuela-pdvsa-debt-idUSL2N1C30R3;
Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2421844&CategoryId=10717)
PDVSA's profits down 63% in first quarter: bond
prospectus
State
oil company PDVSA's profits were down 63% in the first three months of 2016,
compared to the same period last year, according to data published in the
company's bond swap prospectus this week. PDVSA made US$ 2.087 billion in the
year to March, compared to US$ 5.677 billion in the same period last year,
according to the document. Income through oil sales and other products fell 33%,
according to the unaudited document. (Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-pdvsa-idUSKCN11X2OM)
Economy & Finance
Venezuela
remains the least competitive nation in the Hemisphere
According to the 2016-17 Global Competitiveness
Report by the World Economic Forum, Venezuela remains as the least competitive
nation in the Hemisphere. In placed 130th
out of 138 nations, and is only above Liberia, Sierra Leona, Mozambique,
Malawi, Burundi, Chad, Mauritania, and Yemen. The survey is based on 12
categories: institutions, infrastructure, macroeconomic environment, health and
grade schools, secondary education and training, market efficiency, labor
market efficiency, financial market development, technology, size of market,
business sophistication and innovation. More in Spanish: (El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/economia/Venezuela-pais-competitivo-America-Latina_0_929907278.html)
Venezuela wins US$ 70 million law suit in the United
States
Venezuela
has won a civil lawsuit filed for US$ 70 million filed in Florida by the
Comparellis, an Italian-Venezuelan family, against PEQUIVEN, which is a
manufacturer of petrochemicals, subsidiary of state-run oil company Petróleos
de Venezuela (PDVSA). Late in 2014, the Comparellis brought a lawsuit seeking
compensation from PEQUIVEN and the Republic for damages, arguing that two of
their companies had been expropriated in violation of the law, based on the
definition of this term under US regulations. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/venezuela-wins-usd-70m-lawsuit-the-united-states_578792)
Politics and International Affairs
Regime escalates attacks on opposition leaders
Julio
Borges, head of the Democratic Unity (MUD) opposition caucus in Venezuela’s
National Assembly, has warned that the regime will increase attacks and
repression as the recall process moves forward: “In the next few weeks, perhaps months, we will face the most repression
and fear we may have known for the past years…But the government is mistaken if
they think they will hold back the people through fear… Yet I am convinced that
the overdose of fear the government is going through and wants to pass on to
the nation will turn upon it.” As a part of this fear and harassment
campaign, the National Comptroller’s office announced it is calling in Miranda
state governor and former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles over state
budget practices in 2011-2013, a move Capriles replied that the move as a hoax
designed to intimidate him. At the same time, Maduro’s Minister for Women’s
Affairs, Gladys Requena, said she would bring action at the Supreme Tribunal
against National Assembly President Henry Ramos Allup, for alleged “misogyny”; and Foreign Minister Delcy
Rodríguez said she would accuse him of “high
treason” for his contact with the Organization of American States. Ramos
scoffed at the charges and said he would continue to press ahead. More in Spanish: (Noticiero
Venevisión, http://www.noticierovenevision.net/politica/2016/septiembre/27/170377=borges-advirtio-que-el-gobierno-arreciara-represion-para-evitar-el-proximo-paso-para-activar-el-rr;
El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/politica/Gobierno-TSJ-Ramos-Allup-misoginia_0_929907297.html;
http://www.el-nacional.com/politica/Contraloria-cita-Capriles-rinda-cuentas_0_929307348.html;
El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/politica/requena-asegura-que-solicitaran-tsj-levantar-inmunidad-ramos-allup_578876)
Democratic Unity formally requests the Vatican
facilitate possible talks here
Venezuela’s
Democratic Unity opposition coalition (MUD) has formally delivered a request to
the Vatican, asking it to serve as a mediator in government-opposition talks.
The request was made in reply to a letter sent by the Vatican Secretary of
State Monsignor Pietro Parolín to the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR),
voicing willingness to mediate in solutions to the ongoing political, economic
and social crisis in Venezuela; and was delivered to the Papal Nuncio in
Caracas. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/mud-asks-the-vaticans-mediation-venezuelan-crisis_578808)
Poll
shows 67.8% would vote against Maduro in recall
According to a recent poll by VENEBARÓMETRO, 67,8%
here would vote against President Nicolas Maduro in the case of a recall
referendum. Only 23.5% would vote to keep him in office; and 8.8% refused to
answer. His administrative was called negative by 76.4%, and terrible by 50.5%.
More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/politica/afirman-que-678-los-venezolanos-votaria-contra-maduro-revocatorio_578877)
Elections Council still considering number and location of polling machines for recall signatures
Sources within Venezuela’s National Elections
Council (CNE) a final decision has not been made on the number of polling
machines to be assigned to the signature collection process, or as to their
location. They say they are aware that the number is very low and could lead to
disturbances during the procedure. It was unofficially said that members of the
Council are also aware that the point was raised in talks between US Secretary
of State John Kerry and President Nicolas Maduro. Representatives of the
Democratic Unity opposition coalition (MUD) are insisting on an increase and
relocation of polling machines and sites, and have confirmed that a final
decision has not been made. Juan Carlos Caldera, who represents the MUD at the
CNE says they will keep on insisting “through
the very last day, difficult as it may be.” More in Spanish: (El
Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/politica/CNE-establecido-ubicacion-definitiva-recoleccion_0_929907218.html; http://www.el-nacional.com/politica/Discusion-cantidad-ubicacion-maquinas-CNE_0_929907214.html)
Senator
Marco Rubio asks Obama to impose sanctions on CNE head
Senator Marco Rubio, chairman of the Senate Western
Hemisphere Subcommittee has asked President Obama to revoke visas and freeze
the US assets of Tibisay Lucena, the head of Venezuela’s National Elections
Council (CNE), for abusing human rights. More in Spanish: (El
Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/politica/marco-rubio-pide-obama-sancionar-presidenta-del-cne_578874)
National
Assembly launches procedure to replace two out of five CNE members
The Nominations Committee at the National Assembly
has approved a timetable – starting next week - for choosing and electing
replacements for two out of five National Elections Council (CNE) members whose
terms expire on December 1st. It is calling for nominations this
week, will publish a list of those who qualify on 26 October, and nominate
candidates by 15 November. The two departing members are regime sympathizers.
More in Spanish: (El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/politica/octubre-inicia-postulacion-rectores-CNE_0_929307355.html)
Regime controls and uses supply of basic items as a
political tool
A
severe scarcity of basic products here has led to daily scenes of lines in
front of grocery stores and markets, a problem the Maduro government is trying
to assuage through a community committee system called CLAP, which sells mixed
bags of scarce food items solely to its loyal followers. President Maduro
launched the program to allegedly fight “hoarders”
and speculators, and the program’s coordinator – Freddy Bernal – claims 5.6
million people, 1.345 million families, have benefitted. But many in poor
neighborhoods complain they have not seen evidence of the plan, or that
supplies arrive irregularly. Members of the community councils say that only
PSUV government party members control them because “this is politics”. Venezuela’s Executive Vice President Aristóbulo
Istúriz has called the program “an
instrument of the Bolivarian revolution”; and Maduro himself says: “What would happen to the revolution, our
fatherland and economic stability should we not have the CLAP?”, referring
to the local supply community committees.
More in Spanish: (Infolatam: http://www.infolatam.com/2016/09/28/chavistas-controlan-venta-de-alimentos-regulados-en-tiempos-de-escasez/)
Maduro talks to Ban Ki-moon about border dispute with
Guyana
During
a meeting in Cartagena, Colombia, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro once
again asked United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon to appoint a mediator
between the Venezuelan and Guyanese governments to solve the border controversy
related to the Essequibo region. The two leaders “exchanged views on good officer candidates within the framework of the
Geneva Agreement,” according to Venezuelan Foreign Minister Delcy Rodríguez.
(El
Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/venezuelas-maduro-deals-with-ki-moon-border-dispute-with-guyana_578616)
Spain’s
Felipe González terms Maduro regime “an
arbitrary tyranny”
Spain’s former President Felipe González says President
Nicolas Maduro’s regime is an “arbitrary
tyranny that mocks its own rules”. More in Spanish: (El
Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/politica/Felipe-Gonzalez-Venezuela-tirania-arbitraria_0_929907120.html)
The following brief
is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such,
the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte
Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.
