Venezuelan Daily Brief

Published in association with The DVA Group and The Selinger Group, the Venezuelan Daily Brief provides bi-weekly summaries of key news items affecting bulk commodities and the general business environment in Venezuela.

Showing posts with label World Bank. Show all posts
Showing posts with label World Bank. Show all posts

Thursday, January 11, 2018

January 11, 2018


Logistics & Transport

 
Venezuela to open air bridge with ABC islands for safe return of people

The Venezuelan government has announced that it will re-open the air bridge with the Caribbean islands of Aruba, Curaçao, and Bonaire, collectively known as the ABC Islands, to allow those in the country to return to their respective countries safely. The decision comes after Venezuelan president, Nicolas Maduro, announced suspending all air and sea travel with the ABC islands for 72 hours as a measure against smuggling of the Venezuelan gold, silver, and copper through the islands. Tareck El Aissami, Venezuela's Vice President said in a tweet that a meeting to combat contraband would be arranged with the islands' authorities to discuss the issue. "High-level meeting with the authorities of these islands" will be arranged to come up with "a plan of action to combat the mafias" who steal and smuggle our goods, he wrote. The ABC islands have asked The Netherlands for help, and the Dutch Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying it is “disappointed” it was not formally informed of the blockade and confirmed conversations are under way between both nations. (Curaçao Chronicle: http://curacaochronicle.com/politics/venezuela-to-open-air-bridge-with-abc-islands-for-safe-return-of-people/); and more in Spanish: (Noticiero Venevisión, http://www.noticierovenevision.net/noticias/internacional/aruba-curazao-y-bonaire-piden-cooperacion-a-paises-bajos-por-bloqueo-de-venezuela; http://www.noticierovenevision.net/noticias/internacional/holanda-lamenta-cierre-de-fronteras-de-venezuela-con-sus-islas-en-el-caribe; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/politica/holanda-lamento-extension-cierre-fronteras-con-venezuela_683632)

 

Oil & Energy

 
China's debt-ridden GZE taps private refiner for Caribbean project

China’s debt-ridden GUANGDONG ZHENRONG Energy (GZE) has asked a private refining group to join a multi-billion dollar investment in an aging Caribbean oil plant to shore up financing on the deal, said two Chinese executives involved in the matter. The Curacao government last week scrapped a preliminary deal with GZR to operate the century-old Isla refinery, saying the state-controlled commodity trader lacked the financial muscle for the job on its own. Taking over the 335,000 barrels-per-day (bpd) refinery, operated for decades by Venezuela’s cash-strapped state oil firm PDVSA, would give China a foothold in the Caribbean’s second-largest refinery, which has also been a key transfer point for Venezuelan oil heading to Asia. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/china-caribbean-refinery/chinas-debt-ridden-guangdong-zhenrong-taps-private-refiner-for-caribbean-project-idUSL4N1P31CW)

 

Dutch regulators extend time for PDVSA's oil-facility repair review

Dutch authorities on Tuesday agreed to Venezuela’s state-run oil company PDVSA’s request to extend the time needed to demonstrate its financial ability to repair a decaying oil-storage facility on the Caribbean island of Bonaire. The terminal is a key PDVSA facility and its loss would hurt shipments to customers in Asia. In December, Dutch regulator Human Environment and Transport Inspectorate (ILT) told PDVSA unit Bonaire Petroleum Corp (BOPEC) that it must detail a plan to repair deficiencies and provide the necessary financing or face a loss of its operating license. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/bonaire-pdvsa-terminal/dutch-regulators-extend-time-for-pdvsas-oil-facility-repair-review-idUSL4N1P44OQ)

 

Algeria sends more oil to Cuba as Venezuelan supplies fall

Algeria sent 2.1 million barrels of crude oil to Cuba last year and will ship the same amount in 2018, an official at state energy firm SONATRACH said on Wednesday, helping Cuba to offset lower supplies from the island’s closest ally, Venezuela. “We delivered in 2017 three times 700,000 barrels, a total of 2.1 million barrels to Cuba,” Omar Maaliou, SONATRACH’s vice president in charge of trade and marketing, told Reuters. “We will do the same this year, the first 700,000 barrels are about to be delivered.” Saharan Blend light sweet crude is Algeria’s main export grade. Cuba and Algeria have maintained a close relationship in recent years. The island annually imports some US$ 200 million to US$ 300 million of oil products from the African country, including some purchases of naphtha. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-algeria-oil-cuba/algeria-sends-more-oil-to-cuba-as-venezuelan-supplies-fall-idUSKBN1EZ28O)

 

No more oil from Venezuela for Haiti

Jude Alix Patrick Salomon, Haiti’s minister of the economy and finance, has revealed that the financial sanctions imposed by the Trump administration against Venezuela, including limiting banking transactions, have resulted in Venezuela no longer sending oil to Haiti since October 2017, because the Bank of the Republic of Haiti is no longer able to make payments in foreign currency. As a result, the PETROCARIBE fund is no longer supplied and Haiti is deprived of this important source of low-rate financing, HaitiLibre reported. This situation now makes things more difficult in Haiti, which must henceforth obtain fuel in the international market and is more exposed to fluctuations in the spot market, while waiting to find a viable alternative, such as long-term fuel orders, which will require guarantees from Haiti. (Caribbean News Now: http://wp.caribbeannewsnow.com/2018/01/10/no-oil-venezuela-haiti-trump/)

 

Commodities

 
Photos of empty grocery shelves show dire situation In Venezuela

Desperate Venezuelans swarmed supermarkets on Saturday in a rare chance to stock up on basic goods amid a spiraling economic crisis that has resulted in widespread poverty and food shortages. Embattled President Nicolás Maduro, who has consistently blamed the nation’s financial woes on low oil prices and a U.S.-led plot to topple his regime, ordered grocery stores to reduce their prices in an effort to fight staggering hyperinflation (Venezuela’s inflation rate reportedly soared to 2,616% in 2017.) The slashed prices prompted mobs of shoppers to flock to the stores, leaving strikingly bare shelves behind. (Huffington Post: https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/venezuela-empty-grocery-shelves-photos_us_5a567751e4b08a1f624afcf6; Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/venezuelas-empty-shelves-idUSRTX47AWF)

 

Looted supermarkets halt new product orders

Employees report that Venezuela’s looted supermarkets have halted new product orders. “What you see on shelves is what there is. The stockrooms are empty, and we don’t know when new products will arrive. It will be difficult to replace inventories, we don’t know what will happen”, says one. Another confirmed new purchasing has been paralyzed since authorities are forcing them to sell at prices below those provided by suppliers. Government supervisors continue their daily visits and continue to order price reductions. More in Spanish: (El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/noticias/economia/supermercados-supervisados-por-sundde-paralizan-pedidos-proveedores_218122)

 

Economy & Finance

 
Venezuela’s Parliament outlaws Maduro’s cryptocurrency, calls it a “fraud

The Venezuelan Parliament, run by the opposition, voted on Tuesday to declare Nicolas Maduro’s plan to issue an oil-backed cryptocurrency—the Petro—illegal, claiming that it violates the constitution and attempts to mortgage part of the country’s oil reserves. It called the decision “totally null and void.” According to Parliament, the Petro issuance is an attempt by the government to avoid control over public debt operations as set in article 312 of Venezuela’s constitution. While Maduro is recruiting miners for the digital currency, the opposition-led Parliament denounced the cryptocurrency move, called it illegal, and warned potential investors and cryptocurrency market players that the Petro emission is illegal, as is any other obligation by the state of Venezuela backed by oil or other mineral reserves. “This is not a cryptocurrency, this is a forward sale of Venezuelan oil,” legislator Jorge Millan said, as quoted by Reuters. “It is tailor-made for corruption,” Millan added. He said: “We find ourselves before a new kind of fraud, disguised as a solution the (financial) crisis. This incompetent government wants to compensate for lack of oil production with these virtual barrels.” According to digital currency experts, Venezuela’s inability to manage its economy and the Socialist party’s historic lack of respect for private property will deter investors from snapping up Petros.  (Oil Price: https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Venezuelas-Parliament-Outlaws-Maduros-Cryptocurrency.html; The Coin Telegraph: https://cointelegraph.com/news/venezuela-parliament-calls-presidents-59-bln-petro-cryptocurrency-new-fraud; Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-economy/venezuelas-congress-declares-petro-cryptocurrency-illegal-idUSKBN1EY2H2)

 

… and Petro Superintendent says Venezuela´s “cryptocurrency” allocations to be controlled by regime

Carlos Vargas, the Petro’s Superintendent, says the new “cryptocurrency” cannot be mined and will instead be allocated by the Maduro regime through a bidding system like that used to control normal currency allocations. He claimed over 50,000 have registered for the project. More in Spanish: (El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/noticias/economia/carlos-vargas-petro-podra-ser-minado-asignara-por-subastas_218096)

 

Fund managers set to mark down Venezuela bond holdings

Fund managers holding Venezuela government bonds face a day of reckoning after months of waiting for more than half a billion dollars in late interest payments. Since November, investors following guidelines established by the Emerging Markets Traders Association have marked their Venezuela bond holdings to include all the interest they were owed, even though it hadn’t shown up yet. The trade group decided to scratch that rule Monday, and say that beginning today the nation’s debt will trade flat, or without accrued interest. If the coupons are eventually paid, they’ll go to whoever holds the bonds that day. The decision, which followed a week of talks with market participants, comes two months after rating companies deemed Venezuela to be in default. Typically, defaulted bonds begin to trade flat after the grace period on missed debt payments expires. But with President Nicolas Maduro and his allies repeatedly saying the nation would honor its debt -- and with several delayed coupons on bonds issued by the state oil producer eventually making their way to creditors -- the market had given Venezuela the benefit of the doubt. Recently, the government’s gone silent on its bonds, spurring concern it’s selectively defaulting. Those creditors who’d been following EMTA guidelines will now have to write off the accrued interest they’d accounted for on Venezuelan notes from their net asset value. They should also write down any missed coupons they’re entitled to reflect their expected recovery value. By making these changes in January, money managers avoided suffering the loss in their 2017 performance. The recommendation doesn’t apply to debt issued by state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela, which will continue to trade with a payment for accrued and unpaid interest. Another impact from the change may be that Venezuela’s creditors that had patiently waited for their interest payments may now seek to demand immediate repayment of their principal -- a process known as acceleration. Most bonds require holders of just 25% of an outstanding security to agree to do so. “Acceleration becomes the next step -- and a check to see if Venezuela will quickly cough up the money to pay the coupon and halt a potential acceleration,” Russ Dallen, the managing director at Caracas Capital, wrote in a note to clients. “Venezuela’s reaction to the potential acceleration could be the final clarification for still-hopeful bondholders about whether they were actually going to get paid or not.” (Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-09/managers-set-to-mark-down-venezuela-holdings-as-bonds-trade-flat; The Wall Street Journal: https://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2018/01/10/venezuelan-bonds-bake-in-permanent-default/)

 

Venezuela 2020 bond cut to default by S&P

"Venezuela failed to make US$ 45 million in coupon payments for its global bonds due 2020 within the 30-calendar-day grace period," reports global ratings agency S&P. "In line with our criteria for timeliness of payments, we are lowering the issue rating on this bond to 'D' from 'CC'. We are affirming the long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating on Venezuela at 'SD'." On Jan. 9, 2018, S&P Global Ratings lowered its issue rating on the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela's global bond due 2020 to 'D' from 'CC'. At the same time, we affirmed our long- and short-term foreign currency sovereign issuer credit ratings at 'SD/D'. The long- and short-term local currency sovereign credit ratings remain at 'CCC-/C' and are still on CreditWatch with negative implications, where we placed them on Nov. 3, 2017. Other foreign currency senior unsecured debt issues not currently rated 'D' are rated 'CC'.  Our CreditWatch negative listing reflects our opinion that there is a one-in-two chance that Venezuela could default again within the next three months. We could lower specific issue ratings to default ('D') if Venezuela doesn't make its overdue coupon payments before the stated grace period expires, or upon the execution of the announced debt restructuring. (Latin American Herald Tribune: http://laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2448768&CategoryId=10717; Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/brief-sp-says-venezuela-global-bond-due/brief-sp-says-venezuela-global-bond-due-in-2020-rating-lowered-to-d-idUSFWN1P40YL)

 

World Bank estimates 4.2% GDP contraction in Venezuela in 2018

The World Bank’s “World Economic Forecast” estimates that Venezuela’s economy will shrink 4.2% this year. It adds that Venezuela had a 11.9% “recession” in 2017, that was “deeper than had been estimated”. In the meantime, Latin America and the Caribbean grew by 0.9%. More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/economia/banco-mundial-estima-contraccion-economia-venezolana_683792)

 

Venezuela reports it paid part of its debt to Brazil four months late

Venezuela’s government has paid part of its US$ 262.5 million four-month overdue import debt to Brazil on January 5th, according to official sources. Brazil’s Ministry of Finance reports it is the balance of a debt due in the Q2 2017. (Noticiero Venevisión, http://www.noticierovenevision.net/noticias/economia/venezuela-pago-con-cuatro-meses-de-atraso-parte-de-su-deuda-con-brasil)

 

Cabello claims Maduro regime to buy top private bank BANESCO for US$ 3.5 million

A top Socialist Party official claimed on Wednesday that Venezuela's government is in talks to buy the country's top private bank, BANESCO, for US$ 3.5 million, potentially expanding state control over a banking sector struggling under soaring inflation. Socialist Party Vice President, Lieutenant Diosdado Cabello, said talks would begin this week and that BANESCO President Juan Carlos Escotet had accepted an offer made by the government. "We're going to buy BANESCO, really cheap," said Cabello, who is a member of an all-powerful legislative body called the Constituent Assembly, during his weekly television show. "We want to thank Escotet. ... BANESCO will become part of the public banking system." Reuters was unable to immediately obtain comment from BANESCO or Mr. Escotet. (CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/10/reuters-america-venezuela-to-buy-top-private-bank-banesco-for-3-point-5-mln-official.html)

 

Politics and International Affairs

 
OP-ED: Scenarios for the future of Venezuela, by Dr. R. Evan Ellis, Research Professor, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College. Scenario 1: Muddling through / Chinese-Russian vassal state; Scenario 2: Transition to more rational authoritarian kleptocracy; Scenario 3: Break and successful reestablishment of order by military; and Scenario 4: Breakdown of order and disintegration into chaos.  It is a testament to the deterioration of the situation in Venezuela that none of the most plausible scenarios are “good news” stories, although some are less undesirable than others. It is incumbent on the United States and its partners in Latin America and the Caribbean not only to work together to plan for what could transpire in Venezuela but also to collaborate that other unfolding tragedies do not degenerate to the same extent. See full report: ATTACHED.

 

Law and order breakdown in parts of inflation-hit Venezuela

Shops and homes have been looted for a second day in the once prosperous town of Ciudad Guayana in north east Venezuela. With inflation at the rate of 2,600% many are struggling to buy food and medicines ... that is if they are on sale in the first place. Anger and frustration have sparked unrest and the National Guard are often too stretched to maintain law and order: At least five food stores were looted over-night and police sources say 20 people have been arrested, but its’ not just the shops which are vulnerable, some home have been struck as well. Erika Garcia tearfully recounted how looters ransacked her food shop and home just 10 minutes after National Guard soldiers who had been patrolling the area withdrew late on Monday night (Euronews: http://www.euronews.com/2018/01/10/law-and-order-breakdown-in-parts-of-inflation-hit-venezuela; Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-looting/lootings-scattered-protests-hit-venezuelan-industrial-city-idUSKBN1EY2DV)

 

Video report shows 55 National Guard members arrested in mutiny over food

According to a video circulated on Twitter by journalist Daniel Blanco, some 55 members of Venezuela’s National Guard have been arrested – presumably at the Caracas Fuerte Tiuna garrison – after a mutiny demanding food and more benefits. The video – presumably taped inside the barracks – allegedly took place three days ago. More in Spanish: (NTN24: http://www.ntn24.com/noticia/divulgan-video-de-tropa-de-la-guardia-nacional-en-caracas-que-se-niegan-salir-a-la-calle-por-falta-162396)

 

Teen shot dead in food truck looting here

A 19-year-old Venezuelan was shot dead Wednesday when hundreds of people looted trucks carrying flour and chicken in the western city of Guanare, as the oil-rich but impoverished country faces desperate food shortages. According to police and military reports obtained by AFP the unrest began when about 1,000 people looting the trucks started fighting among themselves. Jose Materan, 19, received two gunshot wounds and died in hospital, where three others were being treated for injuries. It was not immediately clear who fired at him. Many of the looters made off with bags of wheat flour or chicken, police said. There have been in the past several days looting and attempted looting in a number of towns and cities nationwide here. Local universities say 30.2% of Venezuelans face poverty and 51.5% extreme poverty while the government puts the figures at 18.3% and 4.4%, respectively. (Channel News Asia: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/teen-shot-dead-in-food-truck-looting-in-venezuela-9851026)

 

Talks to ease Venezuela's crisis set to resume

Talks to ease Venezuela's dire political and economic straits are scheduled to resume Thursday, even as severe food shortages fuel looting and the president and parliament spar anew over access to humanitarian aid. To address Venezuelans' desperation, representatives of Maduro's administration and the opposition coalition Democratic Unity Committee (MUD) plan to meet Thursday in the Dominican Republic for two days of renewed talks. On Friday, they're to be joined by international observers: Danilo Medina, the Dominican Republic's president, as well as officials from Bolivia, Chile, Mexico and Nicaragua. The ruling Social Party's team seeks international recognition of the National Constituent Assembly as well as an end to international economic sanctions that have reduced the debt-ridden country's access to foreign currency. The United States considers the Constituent Assembly – an all-powerful super-body packed with Maduro supporters – to be fraudulently chosen and a threat to the democratically elected National Assembly. Opposition representatives – led by the National Assembly's outgoing president, Julio Borges – want the administration to respect that legislature, permit foreign humanitarian aid, release political prisoners and commit to democratic elections. Maduro, who faces re-election in December, has accused Borges of maligning his administration. Simon Calzadilla, an opposition lawmaker expected this week at the talks in Santo Domingo, said the MUD was negotiating in good faith. "We are waiting for an agreement to be reached for the good of the country, to get out of this crisis," he said in a phone interview with VOA. "… I hope the government understands that its model has failed, that institutions must be restored through a comprehensive agreement that gives good news to all." Calzadilla would not comment on whether the Maduro administration's December 24 release of dozens of prisoners stemmed from negotiations earlier that month. "We have agreed to maintain prudence," he said. Previous rounds of negotiations have left deep fissures in Venezuela's opposition. The talks are opposed by political leaders such as Antonio Ledezma, the former Caracas mayor who in November fled house arrest for exile in Spain. "We hope that no one will recognize the National Constituent Assembly or request the lifting of sanctions against individuals accused of corruption and violating human rights," he said on social media last month. Richard Blanco, a National Assembly lawmaker and head of the opposition group July 16 Fraction, also said last month that he had low expectations for the talks. "There will be no results of any kind here," he predicted. "Nothing will happen at all." (VOA News: https://www.voanews.com/a/talks-to-ease-venezuelan-crisis-set-to-resume/4202199.html)

 

National Assembly president says all laws from ANC are null and void

Omar Barboza, the new President of Venezuela’s legislature, says that no law proclaimed by the pro-regime Constitutional Assembly (ANC) is valid since this is the exclusive right of the legitimate National Assembly. He says: “The Constitutional Assembly is not legal or constitutional, it is simply a political fact because if they approve something, and the government and the Armed Forces – or some parts of the Armed Forces – support them, they are of course a reality we cannot deny exists ---- so when they approve laws they are merely usurping functions, because approving laws is remains with the National Assembly.”  He expressed concern over Venezuela’s economic predicament and supported upcoming talks between the regime and the opposition. More in Spanish: (Noticiero Venevisión, http://www.noticierovenevision.net/noticias/politica/omar-barboza-ninguna-ley-que-apruebe-la-asamblea-nacional-constituyente-tiene-validez)

 

Opposition groups to take to the streets again if negotiations fail

Congressman Juan Andrés Mejía, of the Voluntad Popular (VP) opposition party that is headed by jailed leader Leopoldo López, says they will again take to the streets defending the rights of the people if negotiations starting today in the Dominican Republic fail. He said everything indicates “we will not be able to move forward in this alleged negotiation” and blamed the Maduro regime for its failure. More in Spanish: (Noticiero Venevisión: http://www.noticierovenevision.net/noticias/politica/partido-de-leopoldo-lopez-dice-si-la-negociacion-fracasa-estara-en-la-calle)

 

Regime continues its excessive and arbitrary response to protests

On December 27, the powerful Chavista politician Diosdado Cabello announced the detention of Jonatan Diniz, a Brazilian living in Los Angeles who was visiting Venezuela for a nongovernmental group that he directs, which provides food and aid to people in need. Diniz had been detained, Cabello said, for “belonging to a criminal organization with international reach.” Cabello accused Diniz of using the organization as a “façade” to receive “dollars” and to “finance terrorists.” After Diniz spent nearly 10 days incarcerated at intelligence headquarters in Caracas, the Brazilian Foreign Affairs Ministry was able to negotiate his release and departure from Venezuela. Many others haven’t been so lucky. Since 2014, dozens of political prisoners have been held at the same intelligence offices where Diniz was held, some of them for months on end. A crackdown on dissent between April and July 2017 left dozens of people dead, hundreds injured, and thousands detained. More than 750 civilians have been prosecuted—improperly, in military courts—for offenses including rebellion and treason. Detainees have been systematically abused and in some cases tortured by techniques that include electric shock and asphyxiation. Most of these crimes have gone unpunished. In December, several street protests broke out in Venezuela after the government failed to deliver pernil—a leg of pork traditionally served at Christmas in Venezuela—to Venezuelans with access to boxes with food items subject to government price controls. Officials had promised to include pernil in the boxes, and in a country facing severe shortages of food, this was a valuable opportunity for people to secure protein, which is limited in many Venezuelans’ diet. On December 31, a member of the Bolivarian National Guard who, according to witnesses, was drunk, opened fire without warning on a line of people waiting for the expected rations of pernil, killing an 18-year-old pregnant woman who had stood in line for hours. After the news of the killing went viral, a Bolivarian National guard sergeant was detained in relation to this case. During a protest in Valencia on January 3, 30 people partially closed a road, burned tires in front of a mayor’s office, insulted security agents, and shouted: “Damn Nicolás Maduro!” At the protest, police detained Ronald Cevilla, 25, and Erika Palacios, 41. The charges against them include “instigating hatred”—a crime established in November by the pro-government Constituent Assembly that seized powers from the opposition-led National Assembly in August. The vague and overbroad language of the law imposes prison sentences of up to 20 years for those who “encourage, promote, or incite hatred.” Cevilla and Palacios remain behind bars. No independent institutions remain in Venezuela to act as a check on executive power. Without strong international pressure, 2018 may well be the year in which Venezuela’s government entrenches its repressive powers and the impunity it has enjoyed for terrible abuses. (Human Rights Watch: https://www.hrw.org/news/2018/01/10/why-jonatan-diniz-was-lucky)

 

US and Spain to discuss Venezuela

U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Thomas A. Shannon is in Madrid to meet with his Spanish counterparts on “matters of common interest”, such as the situation in Venezuela. More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/politica/eeuu-espana-abordaran-madrid-situacion-venezuela_683776)

 

U.S. embassy in Venezuela to begin issuing visas again. But who can afford them?

For the first time in more than 18 months, Venezuelans trying to go to the United States for business or pleasure can apply for a visa in Venezuela. In a statement on its website, the U.S. embassy in Caracas said it will begin accepting applications for B-1 and B-2 visas — used for temporary business and tourism travel — starting Jan. 17. Visa services in the South American country have been suspended since May 2016, when Washington and Caracas both ejected diplomats and the embassy said it didn’t have the staff to process visas. An embassy spokesperson Wednesday said the consular office was now almost fully staffed. The move will be a welcome relief for Venezuelans who have been forced to make a grueling overland trek to neighboring Colombia to apply for a visa. Even so, at a cost of US$ 160 per visa application, the price is prohibitive for most Venezuelans. The minimum wage is equal to about US$ 7 a month. The move comes just weeks after Todd Robinson was appointed as the embassy’s chargé, the highest-ranking official absent an ambassador. In a Spanish-language statement, Robinson said the renewed activity “will help support legitimate trips to the United States while we protect our citizens.” (The Miami Herald: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article194007524.html)

 

Economic woes forces women into prostitution to feed children

Sputnik Mundo found out how prostitution helped both women survive the economic crisis that has gripped Venezuela for a fourth year. The fall in oil prices, which forms more than 96% of Venezuela's income, led to the strangulation of the country, with a debt of $150 billion. In such a grim situation, children and families with many children became the most vulnerable segment of society. According to some women, on a “good” day they make US$ 4 or 5. However, it is barely enough for them to make ends meet, as they pay for the rent on a daily basis and also hire a taxi that takes them to the brothel and brings them back home. Apart from the tough economic situation the women are forced to deal with, they face heartbreak and emotional pain as well. In Venezuela there are no laws that explicitly prohibit or permit prostitution. The Ministry of Health does not keep prostitution statistics, and female workers say they feel very helpless. According to police reports, in the center of Caracas alone, there are more than 40 brothels of various categories. (Sputnik News: https://sputniknews.com/latam/201801101060658365-venezuela-women-forced-into-prostitution/)

 

Venezuela's 'butt-lift' boom

Brazil has long had a thriving plastic surgery industry that has fueled countless liposuctions, implants, nips and tucks. But recently, the economic woes of Brazil’s northern neighbor Venezuela are prompting more Brazilians to cross the border for surgery, where cosmetic tweaks are far cheaper. The sudden increase in purchasing power has created a unique opportunity for Francisca Maia Vasconcelos, who has built a business, ferrying patients, mostly from the city of Manaus in Brazil, across the border to the Venezuelan town of Puerto Ordaz, where surgeries are cheaper. Though prices vary, a liposuction, breast and buttock augmentation surgery in Venezuela can cost Brazilians around 10,000 real ($3,098). In Brazil the same procedures can cost closer to 30,000 real. (BBC: http://www.bbc.com/capital/story/20180110-venezuelas-butt-lift-boom)

 

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

October 23th, 2012


Economics & Finance

World Bank ranks Venezuela among the most difficult nations for business
In its report on "Doing Business 2013: Smart regulations for small and medium business", prepared jointly with the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the World Bank underlines "encouraging" and "important" efforts to improve business regulation in Latin America, headed by Chile, Perú, Colombia, México and Panama, and points to worsened conditions in other countries such as Argentina and Venezuela. Chile is 37th on the global rating, followed by Perú (43), Colombia (45), México (48) and Panama (61). Venezuela ranks 180th out of 185. More in Spanish: (Ultimas Noticias, 10-23-2012; http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/actualidad/economia/venezuela-entre-los-paises-mas-complicados-para-ha.aspx)

Minister says there are no plans to devalue currency
Venezuela isn’t studying a devaluation of its currency next year and the government will maintain levels of spending similar to those in 2012, El Nacional reported, citing central bank President Nelson Merentes. The central bank is allowing foreign currency reserves to fluctuate between U$D2 billion and U$F 5 billion, the Caracas-based daily cited Merentes as saying. (Bloomberg, 10-19-2012; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-19/venezuela-doesn-t-plan-to-devalue-currency-el-nacional-says.html)

2013 budget premises to be presented to National Assembly, oil projections probably unchanged
Planning and Finance Minister Jorge Giordani is to present the premises for the 2013 Annual Budget and the Special Indebtedness Tax, along with the Annual Operational Plan before the National Assembly today, says Finance Committee Chairman Ricardo Sanguino. According to economist Luis Oliveros premises used for the oil industry will remain basically unchanged, estimating average oil prices at U$D 50 per barrel and production around 3.1 million BPD. (Veneconomy, 10-22-2012; http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=32489&idc=2 and more in Spanish: El Mundo; http://www.elmundo.com.ve/)

Economist says Venezuela will have no income problems in 2013
Economist Carlos Quenan estimates that due to tension in the Middle East and China's economic recovery oil prices will remain around U$D 100 per barrel and Venezuela will continue to sail untroubled. More in Spanish: (El Mundo, 10-23-2012; http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/economia/mercados/proyectan-un-2013-sin-problemas-de-ingresos-para-l.aspx)

Public spending estimated at VEB 528.8 billion by year end
According to ECOANALÍTICA, public spending will continue to grow and close 2012 around VEB 528.8 billion. Original estimates for 2012 were VEB 297.8 billion, but due to special authorizations it will rise by 77.6%, More in Spanish: (El Universal, 10-23-2012; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/121023/calculan-que-el-gasto-de-2012-terminara-en-bs-5288-millardos)

Gov't seeks stronger State presence in Venezuelan economy
Just a few months before reelected President Hugo Chávez begins his next term, clear signals are being sent that further steps will be taken to deepen the socialist model in Venezuela. The Government's goal is to reinforce the presence of the State in all sectors of Venezuelan economy. As soon as Juan Carlos Loyo was reappointed as minister of Agriculture and Lands, he stressed that he would continue the lands "recovery" policy currently in place. "Moving forward, continuing the lands recovery policy. Thus, it is not expropriation; it is recovery; it is about going back to the very beginning, to the lands of the people and the indigenous tribes. However, this time we are incorporating efficient production and efficient trade. We do not want to see agriculture products ending up in the hands of speculators but in the hands of Venezuelan families," Loyo said recently after being appointed. (El Universal, 10-22-2012; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/121022/govt-seeks-stronger-state-presence-in-venezuelan-economy)

Venezuelan bonds are good business
Alexis Mena, f the SOFTLINE economic consultant firm says that at first sight taking a position in Venezuelan bonds appears sensible as the nation has never once defaulted on its debt payments. He says prices have held firm and some are even overvalued. More in Spanish: (Tal Cual, 22-10-2012; http://www.talcualdigital.com/index.html)

Unemployment rate in September at 7.3%
Unemployment rate in September stood at 7.3%, a reduction of 1.0% versus September 2011 (8.3%), according to the monthly report on the workforce issued by the government´s National Statistics Institute (INE). In absolute terms, this means 1,010,510 jobless last month. Out of them, 897,417 were laid off and the other 113,093 unsuccessfully looked for their first job. In September 12,795,897 people were working, most of them in the formal sector of the economy (59%). (El Universal, 10-19-2012; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/121019/unemployment-rate-in-september-at-73)



Commodities

CVG BAUXILUM stops operations due to lack of inputs
The shortage of polymers used for alumina refining has forced the shutdown of the last operational stage at CVG BAUXILUM, which is the first link in aluminum industry production process. Workers say this is the first time that the plant has been paralyzed by shortages of any of the inputs. In addition, workers at BAUXILUM mines have gone on strike due to delays in wage payments. More in Spanish: (El Nacional, 10-22-2012; http://www.el-nacional.com/; El Universal, 10-23-2012; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/121023/trabajadores-de-minas-de-bauxilum-inician-paro)

It seems impossible to raise oil production by 522,000 barrels per day (bpd) as planned by PDVSA in its work schedule for the Orinoco Oil Belt for this year, say sources in the local oil industry. Current production is 1.2 million bpd. There is no other known additional pumping besides early production announced last September by joint ventures PETROMIRANDA and PETROMACAREO in the Junín 6 and 2 blocs. (Veneconomy, 10-22-2012; http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=32486&idc=4)

Venezuelan oil basket climbs to U$D 102.47
Venezuelan oil prices slightly surged during the week of October 15-19, ending at U$D 102.47 per barrel on average, the Ministry of Petroleum and Mining reported. This means a hike of U$D 0.35 in the value of the Venezuelan oil basket over its price last week. The Ministry explained that "the hikes recorded ending last week allowed the average prices of crude oils to finish this period on the rise, backed by the concern about the supplies due to geopolitical tension in the Middle East and maintenance work in the North Sea." (El Universal, 10-19-2012; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/121019/venezuelan-oil-basket-climbs-to-usd-10247)



International Trade

Venezuela-Colombia trade agreement enters info force
Trade relations between Colombia and Venezuela have entered a new stage, following the entry into force of the Partial Scope Agreement (AAP), which will regulate bilateral trade, according to the Colombian Ministry of Trade.
The AAP will allow the entry of Colombian exports into the Venezuelan market free from tariffs, the ministry explained. The Agreement contains about 4,921 product lines for Colombia and 4,713 product lines for Venezuela, AFP cited. However, the Binational Chamber of Commerce says application of the agreement will be delayed at several customs offices that have not yet adapted to the new system. (El Universal, 10-19-2012; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/121019/venezuela-colombia-trade-agreement-enters-info-force; and more in Spanish: El Mundo, http://www.elmundo.com.ve/)

Meat imports from Brazil up 25% this year
Venezuela bought 188,000 tons of meat from Brazil for a total of U$D 590 million, as the volume of beef imports rose 25% year to date, above the same period last year. More in Spanish: (El Mundo, 10-22-2012; http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/economia/banca/importacion--de-carne-desde-brasil-sube-25--este-a.aspx)

Rules for Venezuela's adjustment to MERCOSUR will be completed before year-end, according to Isabel Delgado, Executive Secretary of the Presidential Commission for the accession of Venezuela to the Southern Common Market (Mercosur), who announced the new rules "will be largely completed by the end of the year." More in Spanish: (AVN, 10-22-2012; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/adecuación-normativa-sobre-ingreso-venezuela-al-mercosur-concluirá-antes-fin-año)

Colombia is an ally in supplying local market, according to statements by the Agriculture and Land Ministers of both nations, Juan Carlos Loyo y Carlos Osorio, who say the doors are open for broader integration. More in Spanish: (Últimas Noticias, 10-22-2012; http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/actualidad/economia/colombia-es-aliada-para-el-abastecimiento-local.aspx)



Logistics & Transport

Venezuela may invest U$D 300 Million to start flights to Beijing and Moscow
Venezuela is considering investments of up to U$D 300 million for the purchase of long-range aircraft to begin intercontinental flights to “allied” countries like China and Russia, according to Elsa Gutiérrez, Minister for Aquatic and Air Transport. She said that after strengthening national and regional connections with the purchase of six Brazilian EMBRAER aircraft at a cost of U$D 270 million, state airline CONVIASA is now working on buying aircraft “to serve different international destinations with direct flights.”“When we say Russia and China, we’re not talking just about Russia and China and nothing else – we want to be able to offer Venezuelans and businessmen access and connection facilities in a competitive but not an unregulated way,” she said in stressing the importance of connecting Caracas with the capitals of those two countries. (Latin American Herald Tribune, 10-19-2012; http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=613896&CategoryId=10717)



Politics

Gubernatorial election campaign starts on November 1
Sandra Oblitas, the Vice-President of the National Electoral Council (CNE), reported on Friday that the election campaign for state governors starts on December 16. She explained that the regulations have been endorsed and the whole election process is being assessed.
She informed that the CNE system got a positive score of the "highest turnout" in the presidential election of October 7. The senior officer remembered that around 15 million voters cast their ballots on October 7. (El Universal, 10-19-2012; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/121019/gubernatorial-election-campaign-starts-on-november-1)

Mitt Romney charges Obama with weakness toward Chavez
During the last of three debates, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney charged that President Barack Obama showed weakness internationally by coming closer to Hugo Chávez, Fidel Castro and Mahmud Ahmadinejad. More in Spanish: (El Universal, 10-23-2012; http://www.eluniversal.com/internacional/estados-unidos-2012/121023/mitt-romney-obama-mostro-debilidad-al-acercarse-a-chavez)

Friday, April 27, 2012

April 27, 2012


Economics & Finance

Washington Post: Chavez’s mysterious ailment fuels a run on Venezuelan stocks
What is the hottest global market so far in 2012? How about socialist Venezuela — where stocks rose 99% between Jan. 1 and this week. That might seem like an improbable surge in a country wracked by double-digit inflation, shortages of water, power and staple foods, and a dearth of investment — not to mention one of the world’s highest murder rates. But Venezuela’s markets are being moved by a strange but powerful force: the absence of reliable information about the health of President Hugo Chavez — and the growing speculation that his condition is rapidly deteriorating. According to Russell M. Dallen Jr., a banker who produces a newsletter on Venezuela, a rumor that a prominent journalist had tweeted the news of Mr. Chavez’s death caused Venezuelan bond prices to spike by as much as 5% Friday. (Washington Post, 04-24-2012; http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/chavezs-mysterious-ailment-fuels-a-run-on-venezuelan-stocks/2012/04/24/gIQAWJySfT_story.html)

Barclays: Signs of Chavez deterioration
BARCLAY's Emerging Markets Research publication for Monday, April 23 dissects information on the health of President Hugo Chavez, its political implications and possible effects on the economy. "Venezuela: President signs of impairment" refers to the recent absence of the Chief of State for over a week which. along with the shift of forces within the government, "increases the likelihood that Chavez continues to have severe limitations to continue and finish their campaign to designate a successor." More in Spanish: (El Universal, 04-25-2012; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/120425/barclays-signos-del-deterioro-del-presidente-chavez)

World  Bank indicates Venezuela squanders oil boom
Rodrigo Chaves, World Bank director for Poverty Reduction and Economic Management in Latin America and the Caribbean says that whereas countries like Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Chile and Mexico "have managed well the supercycle" of raw materials, others "have squandered the boom, causing permanent damage to their economies." In his view, should there be a slowdown in China and a fall in raw materials, "there will be countries that have very high fiscal reserves, such as Peru and Chile," and others like Venezuela, which have a deficit "will suffer dramatically, because, like Aesop's grasshopper, they spent the summer singing." More in Spanish: (El Universal, 04-25-2012; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/120425/bm-advierte-despilfarro-de-la-bonanza-petrolera-en-venezuela)

CITI forecasts that PDVSA will issue bonds soon
In a report dated April 24, US banking giant Citigroup said that it is highly likely that state-run oil company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) will issue bonds next month that will be purchased by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) and other state-run financial institutions. These bonds will eventually feed the System for Foreign Currency Denominated Securities Transactions (SITME), a system through which companies buy US dollar-denominated bonds with bolivars and then resell them abroad to obtain US dollars. (El Universal, 04-25-2012; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/120425/citi-forecasts-that-pdvsa-is-to-issue-bonds-soon)

Venezuela in the last places of competitiveness in Latin America
Venezuela is ranked second lowest in a study of competitiveness in Latin America by the Aden 0international business school..Chile and Panama topped the index every six months. Chile scored 81.4 points out of a maximum of 100 vs. 82.9 the previous measurement (November 2011) and Panama managed 76 points, up from 76.5 the previous semester. Venezuela is the second lowest in the region with 57.7 points, just ahead of Bolivia which recorded 54.9 points. More in Spanish: (El Mundo, 04-26-2012; http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/economia/politicas-publicas/venezuela-en-los-ultimos-lugares-de-competitividad.aspx)

BCV: Retail sales drop 1.37% in January
Sales remain sluggish despite public spending to boost consumption in an election year.  According to data released by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV), both wholesale and retail sales grew 1.76% in January, compared to a 3.87% increase in the first month of 2011. Only retail sales posted a 1.37% decline in the first month of the year. (El Universal, 04-25-2012; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/120425/bcv-venezuelas-retail-sales-fall-137-in-january)

CADIVI lowers allocation of currency by 14%
The first quarter of 2012 reflects a drop in allocation of foreign currency, despite government assurances that the supply of foreign currency for price-controlled items will improve. An ECONOANALITICA report shows uneven currency distribution by the currency board, with a decrease of 37% and 39% for the health and automotive sectors; and increases of 64% for food, and 40% for general trade. More in Spanish: (Tal Cual, 04-27-2012; http://www.talcualdigital.com/index.html)

Minimum wage increase now official
A presidential decree fixed a mandatory 30% monthly minimum wage increase for workers in the private and public sectors. The increase is scheduled in two 15% parts, one in May and the other in September. More in Spanish: (Tal Cual, 04-26-2012;  http://www.talcualdigital.com/index.html)


Commodities

PDVSA eyes exports to India
As China shows signs of a slowdown in oil and fuel consumption, PDVSA is looking to India to take up the slack. Dispatches to India in the first two months of 2012 indicate that shipments to that country could balance or surpass supplies to China. More in Spanish: (El Nacional, 04-26-2012; http://www.el-nacional.com/)

Japan grants U$D 1 billion in loans to PDVSA for oil projects
A new financing of 1 billion dollars have been granted by Japan to the Venezuelan state-oil company PDVSA, through the Japan Bank for International Cooperation.  The agreement was signed by Venezuela's Petroleum and Mining minister, Rafael Ramirez, and Japanese Economy, Commerce and Industry minister, Yukio Edano in Tokyo. (AVN, 04-25-2012; http://www.avn.info.ve/node/109534; El Universal, 04-25-2012; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/120425/pdvsa-secures-usd-1-billion-in-loan-from-japan)

Venezuela resumes nationwide power-rationing
Venezuelans residing in the central, western, southern and eastern regions of the country complain through social networks about the lack of electricity. They assume that partial power outages have been implemented or power failures are hitting their regions again due to faulty power distribution and transmission networks. But beyond that, the government is implementing a nationwide "scheduled and rotating power rationing plan." (El Universal, 04-25-2012; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/120425/venezuela-resumes-nationwide-power-rationing-plans)

Venezuela opposes increase in OPEC output target
Energy minister Rafael Ramirez says OPEC should not raise production targets when it meets in June. "We are against it, I think there is plenty of oil available in the market," he responded when asked whether he was in favor of increasing targets. "We think the oil price should be at a minimum $100 (a barrel). The reason the price is up now is because the market is reacting very nervously to the European economic crisis and the disturbing moves in the Middle East." (Reuters, 04-24-2012; http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/24/venezuela-opec-targets-idUSL3E8FO6ID20120424)

Venezuela iron ore output up 6% in Q1 - paper
Venezuela increased iron ore production by 6% in the first quarter of 2012 to its highest level in five years, the president of the country's primary iron producer Ferrominera Orinoco said. Iron ore output rose to 4.27 million tons in the first three months of this year, compared with 4.03 million tons in the same period of 2011, Radwan Sabbagh said in an interview published on Tuesday by the state newspaper Correo del Orinoco. (Reuters, 04-24-2012; http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/24/venezuela-iron-idUSL2E8FO5QM20120424)

Sugar supply guaranteed
The head of the Venezuelan Foods Corporation Henry Silva emphasized that as part of the National Sugar Plan there will be no price increase of the food staple this year that according to it, its current price is far for the whole of the productive chain. Also, he guaranteed there is enough stock of the product for the country’s demand. (Veneconomy, 04-25-2012; http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=30270&idc=3)



International Trade

South Korea plans for U$D 11.14 billion projects in Venezuela
South Korea and Venezuela have signed non-binding agreements for five heavy industry projects estimated at U$D 11.14 billion. According to Korea’s Knowledge Economy Ministry an U$D 8.8 billion crude oil project, involving PDVSA and a group including DAEWOO Engineering & Construction Co., will build a pipeline linking the Orinoco oil fields in the Junín area southwest of Caracas the capital to oil storage tanks and a harbor to be built in the coastal area of Araya. PDVSA and HYUNDAI Engineering & Construction Co. plan to build a U$D 1 billion, 900-megawatt petroleum coke-fired power plant in Carabobo, and a U$D 800 million refinery capable of processing 60,000 barrels a day in Junín. PDVSA will also build a U$D 500 million heavy oil storage facility with SK Engineering & Construction Co. PEQUIVEN and SK Engineering will construct a U$D 35 million petrochemical plant with a capacity to produce 800,000 tons of ethylene and other products a year, the ministry said. (Bloomberg, 04-24-2012; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-24/south-korea-says-it-plans-11-14-billion-projects-in-venezuela.html)



Politics

Chavez returns ailing; still ahead in polls
President Hugo Chávez arrived early on Thursday in Venezuela, after spending 12 days in Cuba, where he underwent a fourth cycle of radiotherapy sessions to treat an undisclosed form of cancer. His failure to make his usual rounds on television and radio sparked speculation that his health had taken a turn for the worse and that he might have even died. But Chavez’s health problems don’t seem to be hurting his presidential aspirations. A series of recent polls show that the 57-year-old leader is still ahead of his rival Henrique Capriles, even as he’s been running his campaign from a Cuban hospital ward. “A key to understanding this phenomenon is that most people don’t think he is very sick,” said John Magdaleno, with the Polity political consulting firm in Caracas. “They recognize that he’s ill but they believe he will be able to compete in the race.”  (El Universal, 04-26-2012; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/120426/chavez-arrives-in-venezuela-no-formal-address-delivered; The Miami Herald,  http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/04/26/2769833/chavez-returns-to-venezuela-ailing.html#storylink=cpy<9

Prepare scenarios with Chavez, without him, or a suspension of elections; Chavez calls for unity
At a meeting of the group that issues guidelines for regional election campaigns, Wilmer Castro, who coordinates the unit for planning and evaluation presented three scenarios for the next 5 months leading to the October 7th elections: "With a weakened Chavez, without Chavez, and the suspension of the elections due to the political climate". Higher PSUV officials later disavowed the presentation by Castro and ordered cadres to present Chavez in campaign mode and the opposition plotting violence to suspend the elections. In a telephone call, Chavez himself called to followers to promote "national unity to defeat opposition psychological warfare". (El Nacional, 04-25-2012; http://www.el-nacional.com/, More in Spanish: Agencia Venezolana de Noticias; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/chávez-convocó-unidad-nacional-para-derrocar-guerra-psicológica-oposición; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/120427/chavez-hay-que-construir-la-victoria-todos-los-dias)

Colombia's former President Alvaro Uribe will campaign along the border against a Chavez reelection, and has called Venezuela a haven for Colombian terrorists and drug trafficking. More in Spanish: (El Nacional, 04-27-2012; http://www.el-nacional.com/)

US supports OAS sending observers to Venezuela's elections
Roberta Jacobson, Assistant Secretary of State for the Western Hemisphere told the Latin America Subcommittee of the House Foreign Affairs Committee that the US would roundly support the OAS sending observers to the October Presidential elections in Venezuela, but cautioned that in order to do so the OAS must receive a request from the Venezuelan Government. More in Spanish: (El Nacional, 04-27-2012; http://www.el-nacional.com/)

Greater Caracas reported as the third most violent area in the world
Mexican NGO Citizens Council for Public Safety (CCSP) has published a report showing the 50 most violent areas in the world during 2011. According to this report, the Greater Caracas area was the third most violent in the world with 2215 homicides. This was 105.31 homicides per 100,000 populations. Only the Cortés and Yoro areas of Honduras are ahead in violence. More in Spanish: (El Universal, 04-27-2012; http://www.eluniversal.com/sucesos/120427/distrito-capital-es-el-tercero-mas-violento-del-mundo)


The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.