Venezuelan Daily Brief

Published in association with The DVA Group and The Selinger Group, the Venezuelan Daily Brief provides bi-weekly summaries of key news items affecting bulk commodities and the general business environment in Venezuela.

Showing posts with label NTN24. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NTN24. Show all posts

Friday, September 19, 2014

September 19, 2014

International Trade

New cargo arrivals reported at Puerto Cabello
  • 681 tons of beef from Brazil, for state agency CASA and others.
  • 538 tons of wheat flour, for CASA
  • 490 tons of long lasting PARMALAT milk from their Uruguay operation,
  • Over 306 tons of margarine, for CASA
  • 284 tons of chicken, for CASA
  • 265 tons of spaghetti, for CASA
  • Also auto parts, motorcycles and electronic material.

MAERSK sells Venezuela cargo boat business
Danish shipping conglomerate A.P. Moller-Maersk has announced the sale of its cargo boat business in Venezuela, saying it is a "minor part" of its business. The unit is made up of 10 cargo boats under contract in Lake Maracaibo. More in Spanish: (Ultimas Noticias, http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/actualidad/economia/maersk-vende-negocio-de-cargueros-en-venezuela.aspx#ixzz3DZNZjQ5a)


Oil & Energy

Barclay's estimates CITGO value at US$7-9 billion
Barclays Capital estimates the value of CITGO somewhere between US$ 7-8 billion, despite the fact that other firms indicate its value could be at US$ 10 billion. More in Spanish: (El Universal; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/140919/calculan-que-citgo-tiene-un-valor-entre-7-y-9-millardos; El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/economia/Barclays-valora-Citgo-millardos_0_485351624.html)

Sale of CITGO causes PDVSA default insurance to increase
Five-year bond insurance contracts known as credit default swaps (CDS) on Venezuela's state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA) widened 16% over the past week, according to international ratings agency Fitch.
PDVSA CDSs widened 31% during the past month, significantly underperforming Fitch Solutions' Global Oil & Gas CDS Index, which had firmed 5% during the same period. The one- and five-year CDSs referencing PDVSA have inverted, indicating that the market is pricing in higher credit risk at the shorter end of the curve. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2352442&CategoryId=10717)

'Zombie' Hovensa refinery could live again due to shale
The mothballed Hovensa refinery, once the largest in the Western hemisphere, could be the latest "zombie refinery" to come back to life, revived by the U.S. shale boom. Hess Corp and Venezuela's state-run Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) have found an interested buyer for their 350,000 barrel per day (bpd) Hovensa refinery in the Virgin Islands, sources close to the deal told Reuters, confirming a local news report that said the plant would use U.S. crude. Refining at the plant has been halted since 2012, but its owners have been using it as a terminal. The Virgin Islands government has sought a buyer who will return the plant to its former status as an active refinery. (Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/18/us-refinery-hovensa-restart-analysis-idUSKBN0HD0B520140918; http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/17/refinery-hovensa-sale-idUSL1N0RI1CR20140917; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/140918/hess-pdvsa-find-potential-buyer-for-refinery-in-the-virgin-islands)


Commodities

Mitsubishi halts Venezuela plant due to imports snag -union
The assembly plant for Mitsubishi autos in Venezuela has halted operations due to a delay in the import of parts for assembly, a union official said. Like other private businesses here, carmakers have been complaining that the socialist government's complicated currency controls and bureaucratic processes are slowing imports of essential products. The assembler of Mitsubishi in Venezuela, MMC Automotriz, which belongs to Japan's Sojitz Corporation, began a month-long stoppage on Monday, says union official Jahaziel Bolivar. "We're waiting for materials to arrive," he said, adding that they were held up at a port in western Venezuela. (Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/17/venezuela-autos-idUSL1N0R61NL20140917)


Economy & Finance

Venezuelan bonds slide after S&P lowered credit rating
Venezuela’s bonds sank to a 17-month low after Standard & Poor’s lowered the country’s credit rating, citing an economic slowdown and soaring inflation. The nation’s benchmark dollar bonds due 2027 slid 4.23 cents to 68.85 cents on the dollar today, the lowest since April 2013, after S&P cut Venezuela’s long-term rating by one step to CCC+, seven levels below investment grade and just one notch above war-torn Ukraine, and said the outlook is negative. “These guys are operating on fumes,” says Marco Santamaria, a money manager at Alliance Bernstein LP, which has reduced its holdings of Venezuelan bonds in recent months, “I think the situation’s quite grim.” S&P says Venezuela’s economy will contract 3.5% this year after growing 1% in 2013. Annual inflation accelerated to 63.4% in August, the fastest since 1997 and the highest among countries tracked by Bloomberg.  “The downgrade is based on continued economic deterioration, including rising inflation and falling external liquidity, and the declining likelihood that the government will implement timely corrective steps to staunch it,” S&P analyst Sebastian Briozzo said in the statement. “The government could come under greater strain to service its rising level of external debt.” S&P’s rating is in line with the Caa1 ranking from Moody’s Investors Service, which cut Venezuela’s grade in December. (Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-16/venezuela-s-rating-cut-by-s-p-to-ccc-on-deteriorating-economy.html)

Default naysayers undermined by S&P downgrade

Declining gold price increases Venezuela's reserve contraction
73% of Venezuelan international reserves are held in gold, which has dropped down to US$ 1216 an ounce, its lowest price since January 2nd. The Central Bank valued gold reserves at US$ 15.240 billion on August 7th, a 24% drop from December 2012. More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/140919/declive-del-oro-amenaza-con-agravar-caida-de-las-reservas)

Government expenditures have risen 150% above 2013
According to reports presented to the National Assembly, in almost nine months the legislature has authorized an additional VEB 313.2 billion for extraordinary expenses, which is 150% more than approved during the same time frame in 2013.  More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/140917/150-sube-el-gasto-adicional-del-gobierno-respecto-a-2013)

FOREX allocation will contract during the last quarter of this year as public imports continue increasing, says economist Jesús Casique. He explains it is extremely difficult for the country’s productive sector to acquire dollars and at an overvalued exchange rate of VEB 11.70/US$1 (SICAD I), and demand will be infinite. (Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=41120&idc=2)


Politics

Maduro orders investigation into international media reporting virus in Aragua state
President Nicolás Maduro says media outlets CNN en español, NTN24, and the Miami Herald have launched an international campaign claiming "the state of Aragua had been hit by a virus that had killed thousands of Venezuelans in recent hours at Maracay (Central) Hospital, and that it was unknown whether Ebola was the virus involved."
Maduro claimed the reports intended to cause "panic or psychological terror." Fever cases notified to the Venezuelan Health Ministry have almost quadrupled from last year’s August. Only in the 32nd epidemiologic week 50,442 cases were reported, Venezuelan Society of Infect logy issued a press release in which they pointed out “an exponential increase in the number of cases of fever ailments in recent weeks have been unleashed without any concrete explanation as to the cause.” (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/140918/maduro-orders-investigation-into-media-reporting-virus-in-aragua-state; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/140918/president-maduro-to-produce-evidence-of-psychological-war-in-venezuela; Bloomberg. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-18/maduro-orders-media-probe-saying-cnn-causing-alarm.html; Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=41116&idc=3; http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=41115&idc=3; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/140918/maracays-central-hospital-under-epidemiologic-surveillance)

Venezuelan cartoonist says fired for health satire
A Venezuelan cartoonist said she was fired from her newspaper for a caricature that used the late socialist leader Hugo Chavez's signature to satirize the state of healthcare. "I was informed of my sacking from El Universal over this caricature and my awkward attitude over graphic satire," veteran cartoonist Rayma Suprani said via Twitter. There was no confirmation from the newspaper. The cartoon, which ran on El Universal's editorial page on Wednesday, showed a normal-looking electrocardiogram under the heading "health" with another one merging Chavez's signature into a flat-lining heartbeat line under a title "health in Venezuela." (Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/18/us-venezuela-cartoonist-idUSKBN0HD1MF20140918; Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=41123&idc=1)

Government seeks to revoke actress María Conchita Alonso's nationality
Venezuela’s Internal Affairs, Justice and Peace Ministry began procedures to revoke the Venezuelan nationality of actress and singer María Conchita Alonso. Minister Miguel Rodríguez Torres appointed attorney Douglas Camero to file such a motion before the corresponding judicial bodies for alleged treason, claiming Alonso asked American President Barak Obama’s intervention in Venezuela. (Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=41122&idc=1; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/140918/venezuela-to-revoke-citizenship-of-actress-maria-conchita-alonso)

Colombia's NTN24 reports Venezuela blocks its' web page
Colombian international news channel NTN24 reports that its' web page was blocked by Venezuela starting last Tuesday, with no prior notice. Johnattan Bilancieri, director for Digital Platforms at NTN24 says: "The level of sophistication of this form of censorship reflects the viciousness of the Venezuelan regime against freedom of expression and its resolve to restrict the right of Venezuelans to be informed". Colombia's Foreign Ministry says it "hopes the problems...in some regions of Venezuela...is due to technical problems and not...censorship through technological blocking". More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/140919/ntn24-denuncia-que-fue-bloqueada-en-venezuela-su-pagina-web)

Venezuelan and Colombian FMs to meet in the US next week on border closing
Colombia's Foreign Minister María Angela Holguín announced that she will meet in New York with her Venezuelan counterpart, Rafael Ramírez in the context of the United Nations (UN) General Assembly. They intend to evaluate the issue of border smuggling, and also to express "diplomatically our disagreement with the border closure". President Nicolás Maduro ordered on August 11 the closure of the Colombia-Venezuela border on a daily basis, including a military deployment, from 10 pm to 5 am. Colombia is the main market for Venezuelan food, basic goods, and fuel sold at the border in Venezuela. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/140918/venezuelan-and-colombian-fms-to-meet-in-the-us-next-week)

Venezuelan protesters appear to discuss explosives in video
Two Venezuelan activists recently deported by Colombia have surfaced in a video that purportedly shows them discussing plans to stockpile weapons and launch attacks on government targets in apparent attempt to destabilize President Nicolas Maduro’s rule. The video, which aired on a TV program known for battering the government’s foes, apparently contains excerpts from a Skype video conference Lorent Saleh and Gabriel Valles had with an unidentified third person, whose voice is distorted. It’s not clear when the recording took place or how it was obtained. Its veracity could not be independently confirmed, but in it the two students, apparently speaking from inside Colombia, freely boast of all sorts of covert plans. (The Washington Post)

Venezuelan FM rejects recent US report on drugs
The Venezuelan government refuted "conclusively" a drug report released on Monday by US President Barack Obama, whereby Venezuela is accused of not fulfilling its international commitments to counter-narcotics efforts. Venezuela "rejects conclusively a report on drugs issued by the US government on Monday, August 15," the Venezuelan Foreign Office said in a press release where Washington is accused of "meddling" in the country internal affairs. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/140918/venezuelan-fm-refuses-recent-us-report-on-drugs)

Milwaukee man gets 7 years for selling military parts to Venezuela
A former Milwaukee man will spend the next seven years in prison for conspiring to sell parts for a military fighter jet to the Venezuelan Air Force. Ronald Dobek was sentenced last week following his conviction in a trial by a jury which found him guilty on all three counts of the indictment that charged him with conspiring to violate U.S. export laws and unlawfully exporting F-16 parts to Venezuela in December 2007 and December 2008. According to the indictment, Dobek sent F-16 canopy seals to Venezuela, in violation of federal law. (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, http://www.jsonline.com/news/crime/ex-milwaukee-man-gets-7-years-for-selling-military-parts-to-venezuela-b99352702z1-275309231.html)


The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.


Friday, February 28, 2014

February 28, 2014

Economics & Finance
FEDECÁMARAS: Government seeks to impose a failed economic model
FEDECÁMARAS President Jorge Roig, head of the nation's largest business organization told President Nicolás Maduro that the Government is "trying to impose an economic model that has failed around the globe", in reference to the totalitarian socialist political-economic structure. Maduro heard from both critics and supporters at a “peace conference” in Caracas, wihich the main political opposition group skipped. “Our country is not well, Mr. President,” said Roig. “We have economic indicators that show us with one of the highest inflation rates in the world, with enormous shortages.” Also attending was billionaire beverage magnate Lorenzo Mendoza, whom Maduro praised for suggesting the government create a commission to analyze the country’s economic situation. The commission will be headed by Vice President Jorge Arreaza, who says all productive sectors are invited to create working groups. (El Universal, 02-27-2014; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/140227/fedecamaras-govt-seeks-to-impose-a-failed-economic-model; Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-27/venezuela-peace-conference-begins-with-opposition-boycott.html; and AVN, 02-27-2014; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/productive-sectors-called-set-commission-truth-economy)

U$D 13 billion debt to private sector swells government FOREX reserves to U$D 17.8 billion
The ECOANALÍTICA think tank estimates FOREX available to the government has risen to U$D 17.8 billion, up 60% from U$D 11 billion at the same time last year, due to steady oil sales and holding back FOREX from the private sector, pending a redefinition of the system to be applied. Backed up debt to the private sector for unpaid past imports is now estimated around U$D 13 billion. More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/140226/el-estado-acumula-mas-fondos-externos-pero-crecen-sus-deudas)

Venezuela: A country with four exchange rates
  • Venezuela's economy, under strict exchange controls since 2003, now faces four different foreign exchange rates:.
    Official rate: VEB 6.30/U$d, used for 82% of the FOREX the government received - mainly from oil sales - that is almost U$D 43 billion, strictly for priority areas such as food, health and education.
  • SICAD rate: VEB 11,80/U$D. The Ancillary FOREX Administration System (SICAD) auctions out U$D 220 million weekly for non priority activities and tourism.
  • SICAD 2 rate: A new system just announced which makes it possible for individuals and companies to freely trade dollars daily within a government established range, designed to bring down scarcity and inflation.
  • Black market: Estimated at 13 times the official rate. It arose from strict government controlls and distrust of the Bolivar.  More in Spanish: (El Mundo, http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/economia/politicas-publicas/analisis---venezuela--el-pais-de-los-cuatro-tipos-.aspx#ixzz2uQPZ2I00)

Companies must be one year old in order to participate in SICAD
The National Foreign Trade Center (CENCOEX) keeps piling up conditions for companies that want to use the SICAD system. The call for this week's auction now specifies that for companies to enter the process they must be at least one year old. More in Spanish: (El Mundo, http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/economia/politicas-publicas/empresas-deben-tener-al-menos-un-ano-de-creadas-pa.aspx#ixzz2uQOsQ2IA)

International Trade
Government established a Foreign Trade Corporation (CORPOVEX)
The Venezuelan Government has formally established a Foreign Trade Corporation (CORPOVEX), which will report to the Vice President for Economic Affairs and the Central Planning Commission. CORPOVEX will control foreign trade operations for a group of state-owned companies: AGROPATRIA, BARIVEN, CASA, CVG, SUVINCA, and VEXIMCA. (El Universal, 02-27-2014; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/140227/venezuela-establishes-foreign-trade-corporation)

Brazilian exporters anticipate a drop in Venezuela trade
Brazil's Foreign Trade Association (AEB) expects "a U$D 1 billion reduction in exports to Venezuela this year". Brazil has a positive balance of payments relationship with Venezuela due to food exports. Bilateral trade was U$D 6 billion in 2013, with U$D 3.669 billion in Brazil's favor. More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/140226/en-brasil-temen-una-merma-del-comercio-con-venezuela)

Over 3,000 tons in scarce food staples have arrived at Puerto Cabello
  • Over 2,324 tons of frozen beef in 44 containers, for the state Supply and Agricultural Services Corporation (CASA), from Nicaragua
  • Over 1,121 tons of milk and cream milk in 48 vans, for CASA, from Costa Rica.
  • 230 tons of milk in 10 containers for CASA, from Nestlé Argentina.
  • Over 16 tons of baby milk formula, for CASA, from Nestlé Germany.
  • Over 439 tons of raw soya oil in 20 containers, for CAA, from ALBALINISA Nicaragua.
  • Over 267 tons of green coffee, for Café de Venezuela, from ALBALINISA Nicaragua.
More in Spanish: (El Carabobeño; http://www.el-carabobeno.com/impreso/articulo/94906/-ms-de-tres-mil-toneladas-de-carne,-leche-y-aceite-arribaron-al-puerto)


Logistics & Transport
Heavy cargo land transport is about 70% paralyzed
Members of ASOTRACONTAINER, the Puerto Cabello Association of Cargo Transporters, is warning that heavy load transportation is on the verge of a complete stoppage due to scarcities and the excessive increase of supplies and spare parts, as well as the lack of road safety. They report that 70% of the fleet is and an increase in freightage will be announced next week. More in Spanish: (El Carabobeño; http://www.el-carabobeno.com/impreso/articulo/94907/-sector-de-carga-pesada-advirti-paro-involuntario-de-actividades; Notitarde; http://www.notitarde.com/La-Costa/Transportistas-de-Asotracontainer-amenazan-con-paro-por-falta-de-autopartes-y-aumento-en-los-repuestos-2113631/2014/02/25/310773)

Business protests impact of higher port rates
The Puerto Cabello Chamber of Commerce is concerned over rising rates of port services applied the National Port Authority (BOLIPUERTOS), following an 80% increase in rates at the port there. It is asking authorities to "reconsider" rates to lessen the economic impact. More in Spanish: (El Universal, 02-27-2014; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/140227/alertan-impacto-por-alza-de-las-tarifas-de-bolipuertos)

Politics
Student protests in Caracas end in clashes again
Security forces in Venezuela used tear gas to break up a student demonstration in Caracas. Thousands of protesters were demanding the release of fellow students detained during two weeks of unrest, and called a fresh march for Sunday. Attorney General Luisa Ortega said 13 people had died in the violence, although President Maduro put the figure of protest-related deaths at more than 50 on Wednesday. Despite the start of the long holidays students again gathered in Caracas. "There's no Carnival for anybody here. Here we are still on the streets, committed to the fight," student leader Juan Requesens told EFE news agency. Their peaceful demonstration ended in clashes with security forces when some masked protesters tried to block a road. On Wednesday, Maduro held a "national peace conference" without the participation of the opposition. (BBC, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-26376987)

Protests, barricades bring San Cristóbal to a halt
Piles of glass, a trashed refrigerator and the burned remains of a car litter the streets of the Pirineos neighborhood in San Cristobal, giving it the look of a community under siege. Residents of this middle-class area have created the disorder themselves as part of anti-government protests demanding President Nicolas Maduro resign. Open sewer grates expose gaping holes in the street. Debris piled across intersections blocks traffic. Residents set the rules as to which cars can pass through and when. "This barricade is a community effort. The neighbors held an assembly and we're all in agreement," said one burly man who asked not to be identified, as hooded teenager’s unloaded sacks of rocks from the back of a pick-up. "We call this resistance. We're not going to ease up no matter what the governor or the president says." Businesses are mostly shut and public transport suspended. The sporadic demonstrations that kicked off two months ago in San Cristobal have turned into a national opposition protest movement and shuttered this city of 250,000. (Reuters, 02-27-2014; http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/27/us-venezuela-protests-sancristobal-idUSBREA1Q1WA20140227)

CNN en Español, media under siege as unrest continues
The media remains under siege in Venezuela as anti-government street protests continue to escalate. CNN en Español anchor Patricia Janiot, abruptly left the country after receiving threats from the government. President Nicolas Maduro threatened on Thursday to expel CNN from Venezuela unless it “rectified its coverage” of the recent demonstrations and has ordered his administration to begin the process of blocking CNN’s signal in the country. In response, CNN en Español has countered that it has reported in an “accurate and balanced manner.” Colombian regional news network NTN24 was pulled off the air and its Internet feed blocked in Venezuela for its uncensored reports. Last Tuesday, a CNN crew was robbed at gunpoint while covering the street protests. As CNN’s Karl Penhaul described it, a group of armed thugs on motorcycles surrounded him and his crew after they rammed into a group of anti-government protesters. “Next thing I knew, I was staring down the barrel of a chrome-plated 9mm pistol and three armed men then proceeded to rob our crew of all the camera gear and all the transmission gear as well,” he reported. With local television networks, radio stations and even newspapers effectively stifled by the Maduro government, most Venezuelans have been relying on YouTube, Twitter, Facebook and other social media to get uncensored information. Newspapers not toeing the line have seen their paper supply restricted, forcing some to close down or in the case of broadsheet El Nacional, cut down the number of sections in the paper. Meanwhile, even the Internet is under siege. Twitter reported that Venezuela had blocked live images on it service on Friday while U.S. company Zello said that state-run CANTV had blocked access to its popular “walkie-talkie” app, widely used by protesters worldwide to organize their marches. (Variety, http://variety.com/2014/tv/news/cnn-en-espanol-media-under-siege-as-unrest-in-venezuela-continues-1201115632/)

Maduro bets 6-day holiday will diffuse protests
President Nicolás Maduro expanded annual Carnival festivities by decreeing February 27-28 as national holidays, in addition to the scheduled days off on March 3-4. Next March 5 will also be a holiday marking the first anniversary of the death of Hugo Chavez. While the extended vacation weekend may send some to the country’s beaches, Maduro will still need to offer concessions to extend any lull in the violence beyond the holidays, said Carlos Romero, a political analyst at the Central University of Venezuela in Caracas. (Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-26/maduro-bets-6-day-holiday-will-diffuse-venezuela-protests.html; Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/27/us-venezuela-protests-idUSBREA1Q1TQ20140227)

Kerry: The United States will not "sit around and be blamed for things we've never done".
US Secretary of State John Kerry says the United States looks forward to restoring relations with Venezuela, yet "we're not going to sit around and be blamed for things we've never done." The statement came in response to accusations made by Nicolás Maduro's Government, which blamed the US Administration for its alleged role in Venezuelan demonstrations. Kerry's words followed Venezuela's surprise move to name Maximilian Sánchez Arveláiz a possible new ambassador to the US. (El Universal, 02-26-2014; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/140226/kerry-the-united-states-looks-forward-to-improving-ties-with-venezuela; Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/27/us-usa-venezuela-kerry-idUSBREA1P1U520140227)

US Senate resolution targets Venezuelan rights violators
Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Robert Menendez (D-NJ) and U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) today introduced a Senate Resolution deploring the violent repression of peaceful demonstrations in Venezuela, calling for full accountability for human rights violations. “This action sends an unequivocal message by condemning the violence perpetrated against innocent Venezuelans by President Maduro, Venezuelan security forces, and armed pro-government supporters," said Chairman Robert Menendez. "Now is the time to pursue a course of targeted sanctions by denying and revoking visas, and freezing the assets of Venezuelan officials complicit in the deaths of peaceful protestors... This Resolution urges President Obama to immediately impose targeted sanctions that are already possible under existing law and encourage a process of dialogue between Venezuela’s government and the political opposition,” Rubio added. (Capitol Hill, http://www.capitolhillcubans.com/2014/02/senate-resolution-targets-venezuelan.html)

US expels Venezuelan diplomats in tit-for-tat move over unrest
The United States on Tuesday ordered three Venezuelan diplomats to leave in reprisal for President Nicolas Maduro's expulsion of three American embassy staff accused of fomenting unrest that has killed at least 13 people. The U.S. State Department said two first secretaries and a second secretary at the Venezuelan embassy in Washington had been declared personae non grata in response to Caracas' February 17 move against the three Americans. "They have been allowed 48 hours to leave the United States," it said. (The New York Times)

Washington responds coolly to Maduro's ambassadorial proposal
The State Department responded coolly to President Nicolás Maduro's surprise announcement that he would name Maximilian Sánchez Arveláiz as Venezuela's Ambassador to Washington. Venezuela expelled the last US Ambassador here in July 2010. Maduro announced his decision on television with no prior consultation. State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki responded that the US is open to improving relations with Venezuela, even appointing ambassadors, but indicated that Venezuela must first "show seriousness" in its intentions. "The exchange of ambassadors is a mutual decision. We have said for months that we are open to an exchange, but Venezuela must show seriousness on its aperture so that a positive relationship can move forward." More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/140226/washington-reclama-seriedad-para-intercambio-diplomatico)

US government condemns attacks on human rights in Venezuela
The US State Department Country Report on Human Rights Practices for 2013, presented by Secretary of State John Kerry has condemned the absence of a balance of powers in Venezuela, saying "we will continue to support those without a voice in Venezuela, where the government had met peaceful demonstrators with a show of force in the streets and by jailing students...the resolution of Venezuela's problems will not come through violence, but through dialogue". "The principal human rights abuses" recorded in Venezuela included "corruption, politicization of the judicial system, and government actions to impede freedom of expression and restrict freedom of the press". It notes "practical limitations on freedom of speech and press" as a result "of the combination of laws and regulations governing libel and media content, as well as legal harassment and physical intimidation of individuals and the media." (El Universal, 02-27-2014; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/140227/us-government-laments-politicization-of-venezuelan-judiciary; and more in Spanish: ABC Spain, http://www.abc.es/internacional/20140228/abci-eeuu-derechos-cubavenezuela-201402271858.html)

European Parliament holds regime responsible for violence in Venezuela
The European Parliament - by an ample majority vote - called on the regime of Nicolás Maduro to "immediately" disarm and dissolve "armed groups that are controlled by the government". The declaration calls for an end of impunity by these groups. It says that instead of promoting peace authorities "have threatened an armed revolution". It also reminded Maduro of his "duty to guarantee the safety of all citizens in the country, without regard to their political views or affiliations". The resolution calls for a parliamentary group to visit Venezuela urgently "to gage the country's situation as soon as possible".  European Union Commissioner Algirdas Semeta told the European Parliament: “We are deeply concerned by the continuing unrest... We reject all acts of violence and intolerance from all side..."nobody should be detained for exercising their rights to freedom of speech and assembly". (El Universal, 02-27-2014; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/140227/european-commission-alarmed-about-detention-of-students-in-venezuela; and more in Spanish: La Razón,   http://www.larazon.es/detalle_normal/noticias/5696880/internacional/la-eurocamara-senala-a-maduro-como-responsable-de-la-violencia#Ttt1Xtv2y4ippJdk)

Pope pleads for 'end to violence' in Venezuela
Pope Francis says he is concerned about recent unrest in Venezuela, in which at least 13 people have died. The Pope said he hoped that "violence and hostility will cease as soon as possible". He called on the Venezuelan people "to promote reconciliation through mutual forgiveness and sincere dialogue". (BBC)

Colombia demands respect for former President Uribe from Venezuelan authorities
Colombian Foreign Affairs Minister María Ángela Holguín complained about consistent oral attacks by the Venezuelan regime on former Colombian President Álvaro Uribe, accusing him of being the mastermind of the ongoing crisis in Venezuela. "When one hears such unfortunate remarks as those made... by Foreign Minister (Elías) Jaua, it is time to ask Venezuela to abstain from speaking thus about former President Álvaro Uribe," Holguín said. (El Universal, 02-26-2014; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/140226/colombia-wants-venezuelan-authorities-not-to-finger-uribe)

The OAS has postponed its debate on Venezuela
The Organization of American States temporarily postponed its call for a special session on Venezuela which had been requested by Panama "for administrative reasons". Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elías Jaua, who is on a regional support seeking tour of South America, objects to the OAS taking a position and would rather take the case to UNASUR, the Union of South American Nations. (Infolatam)

Russia seeks increased military presence in Venezuela and Cuba
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has said the Kremlin intends to expand its military presence to other nations and is pursuing high level contacts in Venezuela, among other nations. More in Spanish: (ABC Spain, http://www.abc.es/internacional/20140228/abci-rusia-militares-cubavenezuela-201402271706.html)


The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.

Friday, February 14, 2014

February 14, 2014

Economics & Finance

Venezuelan bonds down 3% and still dropping...
Venezuela and PDVSA's global bonds, which fluctuate sharply on political tension and news of unrest, were down as much as 3% yesterday and are reported tanking today. (Reuters: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/02/13/uk-venezuela-protests-idUKBREA1C1FG20140213; pic.twitter.com/tmm1EytIao; and more in Spanish: El Mundo, http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/economia/mercados/bonos-venezolanos-bajaron-tras-resultados-de-prote.aspx#ixzz2tI4tNrsr; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/140214/aumenta-percepcion-de-riesgo-y-caen-los-bonos-de-la-republica)

Bonds create a bind for Venezuela
When it comes to choosing between its own people and Wall Street, Venezuela's socialist government has picked the latter—at least in regard to allocating foreign currency. The country has paid its overseas bondholders right on time. But the cash-strapped government is in hock to the tune of U$D 50 billion to the private companies that service its economy. They range from oil contractors and airlines to supermarkets that need dollars to import everything from flour to toilet paper. "They've forgone paying private companies because they feel the cost of not doing so is manageable, but they've continued paying the bonds," said Asdrubal Oliveros, head of consultancy ECOANALITICA. Any default on its more than U$D 60 billion in bonds would turn the nation into an international pariah, cutting it off from loans it needs to run its oil industry, which provides 96% of Venezuela's hard-currency earnings. Despite high oil prices, the government estimates it lost nearly U$D 20 billion in hard currency through fraud and corruption in its central foreign-exchange agency last year. Economy Vice President Rafael Ramirez says debts with private companies need to be negotiated, offering no guarantees to pay all that companies say is owed. He also has sought to comfort bond investors by saying that Venezuela "hasn't failed nor will it fail to comply with any of its commitments with respect to its external debt." Still, Miguel Octavio, who manages U$D 500 million in assets for Venezuelan clients with BBO Financial in Caracas, said he stopped investing in the country's bonds after Maduro took office: "It's nice to say that you're not going to default, but two, three years down the road, when you can't even feed your own people, what are you going to do?" (The Wall Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/news/article_email/SB10001424052702303874504579377542520825148-lMyQjAxMTA0MDEwMzExNDMyWj)

With oil economy running on fumes, Venezuela 'on the edge of the apocalypse'
Venezuela is a leading candidate for next collapsed state. “To be Venezuelan today is to live on the edge of the apocalypse, convinced it will happen tomorrow,” says Alberto Barrera, biographer of the late Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez. “But then, we’ve been expecting the crisis at any moment for years now.” The apocalypse hasn’t come yet. “The crash never comes because Venezuela has an insurance other countries don’t have – one of the largest oil reserves in the world,” says Jorge Roig, president of the Federation of Chambers of Commerce. Venezuela’s economic indicators defy logic, he said, but the international thirst for oil has postponed the day of reckoning. Meanwhile, the safety net is starting to tatter. Production by the national oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A, or PDVSA, is declining, although the government won’t say by how much. The company is crippled by debt, has no cash to invest in operations, must operate on the posted exchange rate, and has been turned into a bizarre do-everything organization that makes jam and processed chicken, builds houses and runs neighborhood health clinics. The runaway inflation rate and shortages call for harsh economic medicine: a currency devaluation, an end to state subsidies, a lifting of exchange and price controls, but President Maduro has given no sign he intends to take more dramatic steps, and risk the ire of both his base and the hard-left political powers behind him. Richard Obuchi, the public policy expert, predicts another year of rising inflation and greater shortages. Mr. Barrera, believes the end of the Chavismo project may finally come, in an instant. “The day that oil prices so much as flicker,” he says, “we become a cannibal society.” (The Globe and Mail, http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/venezuelas-economy-on-the-edge-of-the-apocalypse/article16845406/)

Let's watch Venezuela destroy itself
Venezuela, a country blessed by vast oil reserves, seems to have an uncanny knack for killing businesses. At least three airlines have grounded flights to and from Venezuela so far this year, in part because the nation's government owed the carriers U$D 3.3 billion in foreign exchange they need to pay operating costs. The government suggested it could pay them with government bonds and cheap fuel, but precious little cash. This should do wonders for getting planes flying again. Carmakers are also in trouble. TOYOTA Motor Corp. is halting production in Venezuela, while FORD Motor Co. is reducing output. A mere 722 vehicles were sold in a country of almost 29 million people last month. Trade group CAVENEZ reckons this amount to an 87% drop in sales in one year. FORD’s chief financial officer, Robert Shanks, understated the problem when he told Bloomberg that “price controls and a very limited and uneven supply of foreign currency to support production, have affected output adversely.” So adversely that CHRYSLER, FORD and GENERAL MOTORS produced no vehicles in Venezuela last month. (Bloomberg, 02-13-2014; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-13/let-s-watch-venezuela-destroy-itself.html)

PROCTER & GAMBLE cuts profit forecast on currency effects
PROCTER & GAMBLE Co. (PG), the world’s largest consumer-products maker, lowered its forecast for profit and sales growth this year because of currency exchange-rate fluctuations and policy changes in Venezuela. Core earnings per share, which excludes some restructuring charges, will increase 3% to 5% this year, down from a previous forecast of 5% to 7%, the company said yesterday in a statement. Revaluing some portions of its business in Venezuela at the government-set exchange rate will result in a charge of as much as 10 cents a share, P&G said. (Bloomberg, 02-12-2014; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-11/procter-gamble-cuts-profit-forecast-on-currency-effects.html)

Venezuela planning third dollar supply system as scarcity rises
Venezuela is reforming its currency laws to start a third dollar allocation system in the “coming hours,” says President Nicolas Maduro as a shortage of greenbacks pushed product scarcity to a record. “The idea is to have supply of foreign exchange beyond the state, regulated by the state, combining market mechanisms with state direction,” he says. The mechanism would come in addition to the state’s currency board that sells dollars at the official rate of 6.3 bolivars per dollar and an auction system that last sold U.S. currency at 11.36 bolivars per dollar, he said. Economy Vice President Rafael Ramirez said last week the country planned to start operating a new currency swap market before the end of the month that would be different from one that was shuttered in 2010. The new market is being called SICAD II, and as financial sources explained, the idea is to incorporate a new controlled mechanism where not everyone can buy foreign currency and the exchange rate will fluctuate within a band. FOREX would be supplied by both private and public companies, including PDVSA. (Bloomberg, 02-12-2014; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-12/venezuela-planning-third-dollar-supply-system-as-scarcity-rises.html; El Universal, 02-13-2014; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/140213/exchange-rate-imbalances-lead-to-incorporation-of-a-new-forex-market)

Central Bank of Venezuela to establish ceiling in SICAD auctions
Under the newly established exchange system, the National Center for Foreign Trade (CENCOEX) will determine sectors that will be allowed to buy US dollars in auctions by Ancillary Foreign Currency Administration System (SICAD), while the Central Bank will set the ceiling for each auction. The minimum amount to be auctioned has been set at USD 220 million. (El Universal, 02-13-2014; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/140213/central-bank-of-venezuela-to-establish-ceiling-in-sicads-auctions)

January food shortage the highest in five years
Staple shortage hit 26.2% in January, 8% up with respect to January 2013. The figure is also the highest for the first month of the year since 2010, according to the Central Bank. In general terms, scarcity extends to 26 out of 100 staples as a result of the imbalance in the Venezuelan economy, afflicted by a supply-demand mismatch. Luis Vicente Leon, of the DATANÁLISIS research firm, explains that even if the Government tries to solve this problem, shortage will escalate in the next two months given the production gap. (El Universal, 02-13-2014; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/140213/venezuelas-food-shortage-in-january-the-highest-in-five-years)

Oil & Energy

PDVSA and REPSOL to sign U$D 1.2 billion financing agreement
Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) and Spain's REPSOL are today signing an agreement for the European firm to invest U$D 1.2 billion into the PETROQUIRIQUIRE mixed venture. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/140214/pdvsa-y-repsol-firmaran-financiamiento-por-1200-millones)

Logistics & Transport

Cost of port services increased by 80%
Just as President Maduro is asking the private sector to "self-regulate" the price of products and services, the Government itself is adjusting their charges to the public along the lines of the new SICAD rate of VEB 11.36/U$D. The Port Authority has now increased charges for port services by 80%, to be paid by importers and shipping companies. One customs agent says: "The impact is enormous. What will companies that have controlled prices do? What will happen is that they will reduce imports."  The Port Authority (BOLIPUERTOS) intends to continue adjusting costs upwards as the SICAD rate rises. Increased charges apply to aeronautic services, airport, port and nautical services, rentals, landing and docking rights, loading and offloading, piers, parking, storage, expedition, and all services by the government. More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/140212/bolipuertos-incremento-80-el-precio-de-servicios-portuarios)

Merchandise with over 30 days in Venezuelan ports will be deemed “legally abandonedand will be allotted “to the ministries of the corresponding areas so that it can be used for the benefit of the people,” says Major General Hebert García Plaza, Aquatic and Air Transport Minister Major General Hebert García Plaza. (Veneconomy, 02-13-2014; http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=38071&idc=3)

Politics

Student protest ends in deadly violence
At least three people were shot dead as violence erupted during anti-government protests in Caracas, on Wednesday. The violence broke out after most demonstrators had gone home following a mainly peaceful rally. Two people died after gunmen on motorbikes opened fire on the remaining crowd. A third died in later clashes. The march was the latest in a series of mass protests against the policies of President Nicolas Maduro. A crowd of demonstrators, many of them students, marched to the federal prosecutor's office to demand the release of 13 protesters who they say were illegally detained in previous marches. A small group of protesters stayed behind after the end of the main march and clashed with the security forces. It was at that time that a number of armed men on motorcycles shot at the crowd, triggering a stampede. One anti-government protester was hit by a bullet and killed. Also shot in the ensuing chaos was a government activist who is part of the pro government motorcycle squads that usually harass opponents. It is not clear whether the two victims were hit by the men on motorcycles or by other assailants. The president of Venezuela's National Assembly, Diosdado Cabello, blamed the killing of Montoya on "fascists", without further clarifying who they might be. A third man was shot dead during anti-government protests in the east of the capital. President Nicolas Maduro condemned the incidents, which he blamed on a "neo-fascist upsurge". The president called for peace, but stressed that those who engaged in violence would not go unpunished. Metropolitan Caracas Mayor and opposition leader Antonio Ledezma said:"Just as we condemn the violent incidents, we say to all Venezuelan families that we have to remain ready to continue fighting, calmly but with determination..."You have to know, Mr Maduro, that whatever you do, what started today will not stop until change is achieved in peace and with democracy for all Venezuelans," he added.(BBC, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-26166094)

Maduro bans street protests, yet protests continue nationwide
President Nicolas Maduro banned street demonstrations after at least three people died as protesters clashed with government supporters. About 50,000 pro-opposition Venezuelans marched through Caracas to protest product shortages, violence and to demand the release of students arrested in provincial towns this month. Students have continued to protest in the streets of the main cities in Venezuela, which are being heavily patrolled by the military, despite Maduro's order. Protesters in Barcelona (Anzoátegui state) were dispersed with tear gas and pellets; protests continued in Ciudad Guayana (Bolívar), throughout Táchira state, in Valencia (Carabobo), Maracaibo (Zulia), Punto Fijo (Falcón) and the island of Margarita.  (Latin American Herald Tribune, 02-13-2014; http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=1599634&CategoryId=10717; Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/13/venezuela-protests-idUSL2N0LH11420140213; Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-12/venezuelan-protests-turn-violent-as-two-people-killed.html; Fox News, 3 Venezuelans shot and injured in anti-government protests; and more in Spanish: El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/140214/recrudecieron-las-protestas-en-calles-de-ocho-ciudades)

Minister of Interior says protests are of a conspiratorial nature
Major General Miguel Rodríguez Torres, Minister of the Interior, Justice and Peace, claims the violent events occurring on Wednesday "are not protests of a social character but of a conspiratorial nature... It is not a spontaneous event, but there is plotting intended to set the country on fire in an irrational manner," he reasoned. (El Universal, 02-13-2014; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/140213/venezuelas-minister-of-interior-protests-are-of-a-conspiratorial-natur)

Colombian's TV network NTN24 has been cut off the air from DirecTV and Movistar cable systems on orders from CONATEL, the government agency regulating communications. NTN24 was the only TV station broadcasting the opposition march in live, along with the events that took place soon after the march concluded. NTN24 can still be followed via its YouTube channel live. During a later speech, President Maduro said he ordered the shutdown and called it a "State decision". (Veneconomy, 02-13-2014; http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=38072&idc=3; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/140213/ntn24-ceo-it-is-an-affront-to-freedom-of-expression)

Protest leader unseen amid arrest rumors
A hard-line leader of Venezuela’s opposition dropped out of sight amid media reports that an arrest order had been issued charging he incited violence at anti-government protests that resulted in three deaths. Leopoldo Lopez was last heard from Wednesday night at a news conference where he vowed that demonstrations against President Nicolas Maduro’s 10-month-old government would continue. Allies dismissed any notion the Harvard-educated former mayor was lying low. They said Lopez was at his home in Caracas trying to verify the authenticity of a judge’s order that purportedly authorizes his arrest on charges including conspiracy, murder and terrorism. Lopez’s backers also denounced an attempt by armed military intelligence officers to search the offices of his Popular Will party Thursday, calling it an effort to intimidate members. Lawyers for the party turned the officers away because they didn’t have a warrant. Maduro and several Cabinet officials have denounced him as the “mastermind” of what they called a strategy to replicate the unrest that preceded the 2002 coup that briefly removed President Hugo Chavez from power. Venezuela’s two political camps traded blame for violent clashes Wednesday that began when a group of pro-Maduro vigilantes roared up on motorcycles and fired guns at a small crowd of demonstrators who had been sparring with police. Lopez’s allies blamed the blamed the violence on the government. Lopez, the leader of a splinter faction of the opposition alliance challenging what he considers the meek leadership of two-time presidential candidate Henrique Capriles, has vowed to remain on the streets. But analysts and even some members of the opposition question whether that strategy, known as “The Exit” to mobilize people who turned out for Wednesday’s protest, could end up strengthening Maduro’s hand and undermine two years of steady electoral gains by the opposition. While Venezuela’s economy is sinking deeper every day, the moment hasn’t arrived for a Ukraine-like standoff on the streets, said Carlos Romero, a political analyst at the Central University of Venezuela. Maduro has done a skillful job winning the loyalty of the military, traditionally the arbiter of political disputes in Venezuela, and foreign governments are load the to exert too much pressure on the president, Romero said. (The Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/2-killed-as-venezuelan-protests-turn-violent/2014/02/12/12182678-9445-11e3-9e13-770265cf4962_story.html; Reuters, 02-13-2014; http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/13/us-venezuela-protests-idUSBREA1B1K220140213; http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/13/us-venezuela-protests-lopez-idUSBREA1C1F220140213; Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=38081&idc=1; Fox News, http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/02/13/venezuela-opposition-leader-drops-out-sight-as-arrest-rumors-swirl/)

Capriles asks Maduro to put an end to armed gangs, release students
Miranda state governor Henrique Capriles Radonski expressed his sympathy to the relatives of the three people killed at the end of student demonstrations in Caracas. Capriles Radonski condemned violence and demanded that the Venezuelan government not to "behave like Little Red Riding Hood, as there are videos and photos of gangs armed by the government that shot at young people." (El Universal, 02-13-2014; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/140213/venezuelan-opposition-leader-asks-president-maduro-to-end-with-armed-g)

OAS Secretary General Insulza condemns violence in Venezuela
OAS Secretary General José Miguel Insulza has condemned violence on the streets of Venezuela and calls upon "all parts to avoid new confrontations that could aggravate existing tensions, creating more victims". He called upon authorities to carry out a "truthful, objective and transparent investigation that assigns responsibility for those dead and wounded, according to Venezuelan laws, by courts of law, with respect for human rights and due process". More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/140214/insulza-rechazo-hechos-violentos-en-venezuela)

Protests could mark a turning point
The relatively large turnout and widespread geographic distribution of this week's protests indicate that the movement may be gaining traction. The protests have turned violent in some instances when the National Guard attempted to disperse the protesters. Further violence is likely, particularly as reports emerge that pro-government urban motorcycle gangs have come out to attack protesters in at least two instances.  The challenge that the student movement will face is in finding a way to include Venezuela's laboring class, which for the most part still supports the government, and relies on its redistributive policies. Their inability to rouse broad support across Venezuela's social and economic classes was in part why previous student uprisings, including significant protests in 2007, failed to generate enough momentum to trigger a significant political shift. But as the economic situation deteriorates there is a chance that protests like this could begin to generate additional social momentum in rejection of the status quo. The government cannot afford to crack down too hard without risking even worse unrest in the future. For its part, the mainstream opposition must walk a careful line between supporting the sentiment behind open unrest and being seen as destabilizing the country. Maduro has stated that he intends to renew the law allowing him to outlaw political candidates who threaten the peace of the country. The statement may foreshadow a more aggressive government policy designed to limit political opposition. (Stratfor; http://www.stratfor.com/sample/video/venezuelas-protests-could-mark-turning-point)


The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.