Venezuelan Daily Brief

Published in association with The DVA Group and The Selinger Group, the Venezuelan Daily Brief provides bi-weekly summaries of key news items affecting bulk commodities and the general business environment in Venezuela.

Showing posts with label Lima Group. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lima Group. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 26, 2019

February 26, 2019


International Trade

Food and cleaning products have arrived at Margarita island’s El Guamache port

Port officials have announced that the CFS PANAVERA has arrived at Margarita island’s El Guamache port from Jamaica, carrying 53 containers, including 12 with food and 4 with personal care and health products. Cooking oil, rice, wheat flour, coffee, chocolate, pasta, peas, tomatoes, cosmetics and cleaning products are part of the arriving cargo. More in Spanish; (Bolipuertos, http://www.bolipuertos.gob.ve/noticia.aspx?id=43456)

 

Logistics & Transport

US flying more reconnaissance flights off Venezuela, military sources say

The US military has flown an increased number of reconnaissance flights in international airspace off the coast of Venezuela during the last several days to gather classified intelligence about the embattled regime of Nicolas Maduro, according to two US defense officials. The officials would not detail which US military aircraft are being used, but the Navy and Air Force maintain several large fixed-wing aircraft capable of intercepting communications and monitoring the status of weaponry. The officials noted that the effort is limited to whatever the aircraft can gather by staying in international airspace. Several US military officials continue to emphasize there are no military options actively being considered for the Venezuela crisis. For now, the US military would only contemplate a response if US assets, personnel or the embassy were attacked. The US Federal Aviation Administration has issued a warning to US pilots about flying into and out of Venezuela because of "continued political instability and increasing tensions." (CNN: https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/25/americas/venezuela-developments/index.html)

 

AVIOR halts flights to Aruba, Curaçao and Bonaire

Venezuela’s AVIOR airline has indefinitely suspended all flights to and from the islands of Aruba, Curaçao and Bonaire, following an order from this country’s National Civil Aeronautics Institute barring all air traffic by order of the Maduro regime. More in Spanish; (Noticiero Venevisión, http://www.noticierovenevision.net/noticias/economia/avior-suspendio-sus-vuelos-a-aruba-curazao-y-bonaire)

 

Oil & Energy

Venezuela has US$ 500 million of crude sitting in ships — but nobody wants to buy it

Venezuela is running out of space to store its sanction-stained crude that few dare to buy, forcing it to reduce output at a time when the world is thirsty for heavy, sulfurous oil. Tankers holding 8.36 million barrels of Venezuelan crude worth upwards of a half-billion dollars are floating off the country’s coast as the nation struggles to find buyers for its oil following new U.S. sanctions in January. An armada of 16 ships holds cargoes belonging to state oil company PDVSA, CHEVRON, VALERO, and ROSNEFT, according to shipping reports and ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Oil ventures owned by PDVSA with ROSNEFT, CHEVRON, TOTAL and EQUINOR, whose upgraders convert tar-like Venezuelan crude into oil that refineries can process, reduced rates this week because they ran out of space to store crude, according to people with knowledge of the situation. With few buyers willing to take PDVSA’s oil, the alternative was to put some of that oil onto tankers to clear space and continue to operate at lower rates. The backlog of ships and the growing difficulty in keeping its oil upgraders running underscore the impact U.S. sanctions are having on PDVSA. Shipments to America, once Venezuela’s largest customer, have dried up. Without access to the U.S. financial system, on which many refiners and trading houses rely on to finance purchases, PDVSA is having trouble finding buyers outside of countries such as India and China, to whom it owes oil in payment for past loans. The PDVSA-Rosneft joint-venture PETROMONAGAS upgrader isn’t processing oil after running out of space to store their production, a person with knowledge of the situation said. PDVSA-CHEVRON’s PETROPIAR venture has reduced output for the same reason, other people said. PETROCEDENO, a PDVSA-TOTAL-EQUINOR venture, is running out of oil to process as a ban on sales of heavy naphtha to PDVSA has made it difficult to ship the heavy oil through pipelines from inland fields to the upgrader, another person said. (FORTUNE: http://fortune.com/2019/02/26/venezuela-crude-sanctions-ships/)

 

Venezuela oil sanctions slash Brent crude premium

The U.S. sanctions on Venezuela from late last month cut off more heavy and sour crude oil supply to the global market, leading to the lowest premium of quality light sweet Brent over heavier and sour crude grades because of limited heavy oil supply worldwide. At times when supply of various crude grades is not distorted, Brent usually trades at a premium of US$ 3-$4 a barrel over Dubai, but since January, the premium of Brent over Dubai has been consistently below US$ 1 a barrel. To top off the sanctions on Iran and the OPEC cuts, the U.S. sanctions on Venezuela at the end of January further tightened the heavy crude market, and traders expect the market to tighten even more in the coming months. Despite initial expectations that the Venezuelan oil that would have gone to the U.S. could easily make way to Asia, the nature of the U.S. sanctions have effectively turned the U.S. import ban into financial sanctions applicable globally. In the middle of February, the April Brent premium to Dubai Exchange Futures for Swaps (EFS)—generally seen as the spot market sentiment of Brent-linked and Dubai-linked crude grades—fell to the lowest on record, since S&P Global Platts started publishing data about the spread in August 2011. (Oil Price: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Venezuela-Oil-Sanctions-Slash-Brent-Crude-Premium.html)

 

Commodities

Fishing halted on Venezuelan coast

In an unusual move, Venezuelan military are stopping fishermen from setting sail from docks in Vargas state near Caracas. More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/caracas/33938/refuerzan-muelles-pesqueros-de-vargas-tras-prohibicion-de-zarpe)

 

Economy & Finance

National Assembly asks CITIGROUP for 90-day extension on gold foreclosure

Venezuela’s opposition led National Assembly has asked CITIGROUP for a 90-day extension before it forecloses on Venezuelan gold reserves held with the Bank of England as collateral on a US$ 1.1 billion debt. The request was made by the Assembly’s standing Finance Committee, headed by congressman Angel Alvarado, who said CITIGROUP is “willing to cooperate”. More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/33859/plazo-de-90-dias-pide-an-a-citigroup-para-cobrar-deuda-en-oro)

 

Evolving Venezuela sanctions pose problems for banks

Recently imposed sanctions on Venezuela have posed new compliance risks for U.S. and international financial institutions as they seek to untangle business ties between the two countries to meet evolving requirements. The Treasury Department has ramped up sanctions with more designations and guidance in recent weeks. Gradually increasing U.S. measures targeting the government of Venezuela, and the country’s state-owned oil giant have made banks more reluctant to touch accounts that might relate to Venezuela for fear of sanctions violations. The scenario is complex because of the economic and business connections between the two countries has a foundation in the oil-and-gas industry, which can affect automobile and heavy machinery manufacturing, as well as elements of insurance and finance. Intricacies stemming from the sanctions are particularly disruptive for the banking industry, said Daniel Gutierrez, who chairs the anti-money-laundering compliance committee at the Florida International Bankers Association. In the case of Venezuela, where the list of the Maduro government officials is broad and unclear, and where PDVSA has many subsidiaries and tends to outsource to third-party vendors, banks are finding they need to pull more resources to holistically analyze each instance on a case-by-case basis. If not carefully managed, banks could face penalties and reputational damage. (The Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/articles/evolving-venezuela-sanctions-pose-problems-for-banks-11551143320)

 

Politics and International Affairs

UN Security Council to meet on Venezuela after deadly clashes

The UN Security Council is due to meet today to discuss Venezuela, following weekend violence over a failed opposition bid to bring in humanitarian aid. The United States requested the meeting to be held in open session this evening. The request came as US Vice President Mike Pence travelled to Colombia to meet opposition leader Juan Guaidó in a show of support for his bid to replace President Nicolás Maduro. The Security Council is divided over Venezuela. The U.S. and many Western and Latin American nations back opposition leader Juan Guaidó as interim president, while Russia, China and other countries support President Nicolas Maduro and oppose any interference in Venezuela's internal affairs. (RTE: https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0226/1032860-venezuela/; ABC News: https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/latest-germany-urges-pressure-maduro-61299953

 

Lima Group asks International Criminal Court to provide assessment of Venezuela situation

The Lima Group on Monday asked the International Criminal Court (ICC) to make an assessment of the situation in crisis-torn Venezuela, proposing that Venezuela's partners help organize "free elections" in the country. "We have decided to turn to the International Criminal Court with a request to take into account the grave humanitarian situation in Venezuela, the criminal violence of Nicolas Maduro's regime against civilians and the denial of access to international aid, which is a crime against humanity", the statement said. The Lima Group of 14 countries was created in 2017 and currently seeks to end the political crisis in Venezuela. The group includes Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Costa Rica, Chile, Guyana, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru and Saint Lucia. The majority of the organization's member states are backing Guaidó. (SPUTNIK: https://sputniknews.com/latam/201902261072735401-lima-group-venezuela-intl-court-situation/)

 

Guaidó and Pence agree to tighten noose on Maduro, as Guaidó says he will return to Venezuela

US Vice President Mike Pence announced fresh US sanctions against allies of Nicolas Maduro on Monday, after meeting with Latin American leaders including Venezuela's interim president Juan Guaidó in Colombia. "The tragic events of this past weekend have only steeled the resolve of the United States of America to stand with you, to stand with freedom-loving people in Venezuela," Pence told Guaidó at the Lima group meeting in Colombia's capital Bogota. Pence also urged other Latin American countries to freeze the assets of PDVSA, Venezuela's state-owned oil company, and to restrict visas for officials close to Maduro. "Effective today, the United States will impose additional sanctions on regime officials, including three border state governors implicated in last weekend's violence and a member of Maduro's inner circle," he said, adding that the US stands with Guaidó "100 percent". Guaidó, who is recognized by most Western nations as Venezuela's legitimate leader, called on all foreign powers "to consider all options in ousting Maduro". "Just days ago, as the world watched, the tyrant in Caracas danced as his henchmen burned truckloads of food and medicine, and murdered civilians," Pence said, and added that the U.S. will stand by Guaidó until freedom is restored and promised tougher measures against this nation soon. "In the days ahead ... the United States will announce even stronger sanctions on the regime's corrupt financial networks," Pence said. "We will work with all of you to find every last dollar that they stole and work to return it to Venezuela." Pence also said the U.S. is sending another US$ 56 million to Venezuela's neighbors to help them cope with the influx of migrants from Venezuela. If Maduro remains in charge of Venezuela, Pence said he expects it will result in two million more refugees. The European Union on Sunday condemned the government's use of violence and armed civilians to block the aid entry, while UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said he was "shocked and saddened" by the civilian deaths. During Monday's meeting, Guaidó, who was sitting next to Pence, asked for a moment of silence for those who were killed over the weekend. Guaidó warned that "indulging" Maduro "would be a threat to all of America," while Colombia President Ivan Duque called for "more powerful and effective" pressure on the socialist leader.  Pence reiterated that "all options are on the table" — a phrase that has been repeated by Trump administration officials since the U.S. recognized Guaidó as the legitimate leader of Venezuela in January. Guaidó has adopted similar language and urged the Lima Group to consider "all options" in ousting Maduro. But both Guaidó and Trump administration officials have stopped of calling for U.S. troops on the ground. In a statement following Monday's meeting, the Lima Group demanded that the Maduro leave his post immediately and make way for a democratic transition that included free elections. Guaidó accused Maduro's government of turning the country into "the sanctuary of terrorists." Having defied a government travel ban to got to Colombia on Friday, Guaidó said he would return home "this week," with the Lima Group warning he faced "serious and credible threats" from the regime. Maduro has told ABC News that Guaidó must “face justice” if he decides to return because he had a Supreme Court order against leaving the country. (NPR: https://www.npr.org/2019/02/25/697638242/pence-on-venezuela-we-will-keep-standing-until-your-libertad-is-restored; Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/ramps-pressure-venezuela-maduro-sanctions-190225173549450.html; Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics/venezuelas-Guaidó-says-all-options-open-after-maduro-blocks-aid-idUSKCN1QC091;


 

US sanctions pro-Maduro governors who blocked international aid

The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has designated four officials aligned with the illegitimate regime of former President Nicolas Maduro. This action, taken pursuant to Executive Order (E.O.) 13692, targets the Governors of four Venezuelan states involved in endemic corruption and in blocking the delivery of critical humanitarian aid, thereby exacerbating the ongoing humanitarian crisis caused by the illegitimate Maduro regime. “The illegitimate Maduro regime’s attempts to blockade international aid intended for the Venezuelan people are shameful. Treasury is targeting four state governors aligned with former President Maduro for standing in the way of severely needed humanitarian assistance and prolonging the suffering of the Venezuelan people,” said Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin. “The United States fully supports the efforts of Interim President Juan Guaidó to address the endemic corruption, human rights abuses, and violent repression that has become the hallmark of the illegitimate Maduro regime, and looks forward to the restoration of a democratically elected government for the people of Venezuela.” As a result of today’s action, all property and interests in property of these individuals, and of any entities that are owned, directly or indirectly, 50 percent or more by these individuals, that are in the United States or in the possession or control of U.S. persons are blocked and must be reported to OFAC. OFAC’s regulations generally prohibit all dealings by U.S. persons or within (or transiting) the United States that involve any property or interests in property of blocked or designated persons. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2475341&CategoryId=10717)

 

Maduro extends deadline for US Embassy closure

On Saturday, Nicolás Maduro for a second time extended the deadline for shutting down the US Embassy in Caracas. US authorities say this extensión is now for 30 more days.  Maduro’s Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza claimed on Twitter that both countries had agreed to establish interest section offices in Caracas and Washington for migratory and bilateral affairs. More in Spanish: (Noticiero Venevisión, http://www.noticierovenevision.net/noticias/politica/gobierno-nacional-extiende-el-plazo-para-el-cierre-de-la-embajada-de-eeuu-en-caracas)

 

Maduro responsible for safety of Colombian embassy staff: minister

Nicolas Maduro is responsible for the safety of Colombian diplomats in Venezuela, Colombia’s foreign minister said on Saturday, after Maduro formally broke off relations with Bogota. “Colombia holds the usurper Maduro responsible for any aggression or violation of the rights of Colombian officials in Venezuela,” Foreign Minister Carlos Holmes Trujillo said. Luis Almagro, secretary general of the Organization of American States, said in the same statement that Maduro, socialist, could not break relations with Colombia because he is not Venezuela’s legitimate president. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-colombia-maduro/maduro-responsible-for-safety-of-colombian-embassy-staff-minister-idUSKCN1QC0UL)

 

In Colombia, Pence lets Guaidó down easy on use of military force against Maduro

Vice President Mike Pence flew into Colombia on Monday as an anxious hemisphere waited to hear if the leader from America would back the Venezuelan opposition’s call to use “force” to bring humanitarian aid into the country. Opposition leader Juan Guaidó, who was barred from leaving Venezuela, had secretly crossed the border amid violent clashes between demonstrators and security forces for a special meeting Monday with Pence and regional leaders. What Pence ended up telling the young Venezuelan leader was not necessarily what he traveled so far to hear: Pence told Guaidó the Trump administration still believes in a peaceful resolution. “We got a long way to go,” Pence said he told him. “I made it clear to President Guaidó that we’re going to continue to call on allies to join with us. We’re going to continue to isolate Maduro economically and diplomatically until democracy is restored.” Many in the region breathed a sigh of relief after fearing that Pence was going to support the call for military action. Diplomats acknowledge that the strongest steps have already been taken and fear is growing that momentum against the government of Nicolas Maduro may be stalling. But governments that oppose using force say there are diplomatic options yet to be considered. One diplomat whose government opposes any kind of military option said there have been conversations with U.S. officials about forcing Venezuelan diplomats loyal to Maduro to choose between remaining in their countries or returning home. Pence said ultimately it would be up to Trump, in consultation with allies, to decide under what conditions a military option would be appropriate. Pence said Guaidó wanted to make sure that all options remained on the table. “I assured him that they were, but we hope for better,” Pence said. “We hope for a peaceful transition.” Using military force would be a drastic escalation, but José Cárdenas, who served in the National Security Council under George W. Bush and regularly speaks with Trump administration officials, said it needs to be discussed. “We can’t just walk away,” Cárdenas said. “In order to sustain the pressure, you have to keep one-upping what the government does.” (The Miami Herald: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article226784504.html)

 

US increasingly isolated as allies warn against use of military force

US vice-president Mike Pence has repeated a veiled threat of military intervention in Venezuela, but Washington appeared increasingly isolated in its willingness to contemplate using force to oust Nicolás Maduro. Both European powers and some of Donald Trump’s key Latin American allies – all of whom have recognized opposition leader Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s legitimate leader – warned that they would oppose sending troops into the country. Guaidó had for weeks insisted his movement was focused on peaceful, democratic change. But after the opposition failed in a weekend bid to defy Caracas and bring aid into the country, he called on the international community to “keep all options open”. Speaking at an emergency summit of regional leaders in the Colombian capital Bogotá, Pence renewed the threat of intervention, describing Maduro as “a usurper”, and calling for a global push to oust him. “To leaders around the world: it’s time. There can be no bystanders in Venezuela’s struggle for freedom,” he said. “We hope for a peaceful transition to democracy, but as President Trump has made clear, all options are on the table.” But beyond the US, few appear willing embrace the prospect of violence.  Brazil’s vice-president, retired general Hamilton Mourão, said on Monday that under no circumstances would his country allow the United States to intervene militarily from Brazilian territory, even though the country’s rightwing president Jair Bolsonaro has previously vowed to do “everything for democracy to be re-established” in Venezuela. Colombian president Iván Duque has also now ruled out intervention, according to sources in his administration. Chile and Peru were also among other regional powers opposing military action on Monday. 'Let's hope that the pressure of the international community, dialogue and prudence will prevail,' said Panamanian President Juan Carlos Varela, who likened the crisis in Venezuela to what his country faced in the run up to the 1989 U.S. invasion to remove dictator Manuel Noriega. 'Although the circumstances are similar, we must have the capacity to find a solution different than the one used back then.' There was similar concern across the Atlantic, where European nations including Spain and Germany made clear they considered the deployment of troops a line that should not be crossed. Spain would 'roundly condemn' use of force in Venezuela: “Not every option is on the table,” the country’s foreign minister, Josep Borrell, said in a blunt rebuke to supporters of intervention. The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, insisted there could be no military solution to a political crisis. The Lima group also said credible threats have been made against the life of Venezuelan opposition leader Guaidó and his family, adding that Nicolas Maduro was responsible for Guaidó’s safety. “We want to hold the usurper Maduro responsible for any violent action against Guaidó, against his wife and against their relatives,” said Colombian Foreign Minister Carlos Holmes Trujillo, speaking on behalf of the group. (The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/25/venezuela-mike-pence-maduro-Guaidó; Daily Mail: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6743013/Venezuelas-second-command-flies-two-children-China-using-wifes-surname.html; Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-25/venezuela-neighbors-push-back-against-military-answer-to-crisis)

 

Russia accuses U.S. of preparing military intervention in Venezuela

A top Russian security official on Tuesday accused the United States of deploying forces in Puerto Rico and Colombia in preparation for a military intervention in Venezuela to topple Moscow’s ally, President Nicolas Maduro.  “...The United States is preparing a military invasion of an independent state,” Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of the Russian Security Council, was quoted as saying in an interview. “The transfer of American special operations forces to Puerto Rico, the landing of U.S. forces in Colombia and other facts indicate the Pentagon is reinforcing its troops in the region in order to use them in an operation to remove ... Maduro from power.” Patrushev said in the interview that Washington had asked Moscow for consultations on Venezuela and that Russia had agreed, but that U.S. officials had repeatedly postponed them under false pretexts. U.S. officials have previously dismissed Russian allegations about U.S. plans for Venezuela as baseless “propaganda.” (Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-russia/russia-accuses-us-of-preparing-military-intervention-in-venezuela-idUSKCN1QF14K)

 

China says hopes world provides 'constructive' help to Venezuela

China hopes that the international community can provide “constructive” help to Venezuela based on respect for the country’s sovereignty, the foreign ministry said on Monday, after Venezuelan troops repelled foreign aid convoys. China hopes Venezuela can remain peaceful and calm, the Foreign Ministry said, and reiterated Beijing’s opposition to foreign interference in Venezuela’s internal affairs or the use of “so-called ‘humanitarian aid’ for political aims”. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-china/china-says-hopes-world-provides-constructive-help-to-venezuela-idUSKCN1QE0YW)

 

Mexico President says committed to non-intervention on Venezuela

Mexico's president on Tuesday said he remained committed to a policy of non-intervention on Venezuela a day after U.S. Vice President Mike Pence urged Mexico to recognize opposition leader Juan Guaidó as Venezuela's rightful president. President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador at his regular morning news conference urged all sides in Venezuela to seek a peaceful solution to the crisis and said the United Nations should be used to help resolve a dispute over humanitarian aid. (The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2019/02/26/world/americas/26reuters-venezuela-politics-mexico.html)

 

Sanders warns against intervention in Venezuela, stops short of calling Maduro a 'dictator'

Sen. Bernie Sanders on Monday night steered clear of calling Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro a "dictator", despite criticizing Maduro's government for failing to hold democratic elections. "It's fair to say the last election was undemocratic, but there are still democratic operations taking place in that country," Sanders said after being asked by CNN's Wolf Blitzer why he wouldn't use the term to describe Maduro. "What I am calling for right now is internationally supervised free elections."  Sanders was asked about his opposition to U.S. intervention in Venezuela. He responded by saying he believed there should be an “international humanitarian effort” to improve the lives of Venezuelans and expressed that their last election was “not free and fair.” (CNN: https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/25/politics/bernie-sanders-venezuela-maduro/index.html; FOX: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bernie-sanders-refuses-to-call-venezuelas-maduro-dictator-says-democratic-operations-taking-place)

 

UN’s Michelle Bachelet condemned violence at Venezuela’s borders

Michelle Bachelet, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, has condemned what she called the excessive use of force by Venezuelan security forces and pro-regime groups on the borders with Colombia and Brazil, causing at least 4 dead and over 300 wounded. She pointed to “deplorable scenes” and asked the Maduro regime to “stop using excessive force against unarmed protesters and ordinary citizens”. She asked the regime to stop pro-government groups involved in violent actions. More in Spanish: (Noticiero Venevisión, http://www.noticierovenevision.net/noticias/internacional/michelle-bachelet-condeno-la-violencia-en-las-fronteras-de-venezuela)

 

European Union condemns Maduro regime’s use of “armed groups” to “intimidate civilians

The European Union has condemned violence in Venezuela and the Maduro regime’s use of “armed groups” to block the entrance of humanitarian aid. “We reject the use of irregular armed groups to intimidate civilians and legislators who seek to distribute aid”. More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/politica/33966/union-europea-condena-que-gobierno-recurra-a-grupos-armados-para-intimidar-civiles)

 

Uncertainty at Colombia-Venezuela border bridge after clashes over aid

Dawn broke on Sunday at the Simon Bolivar bridge, the main border crossing point between Colombia and Venezuela, amid a tense and uncertain calm after a clash between Venezuelans – many of them shouting and calling for their country’s “freedom” – who were trying to bring humanitarian aid into their country and authorities taking orders from Caracas. There were sporadic clashes between hooded protesters and police, supported by armed civilian "colectivos" on Sunday on the Venezuelan side of the border. On the order of Colombian President Ivan Duque, the bridge linking the Colombian city of Cucuta with Venezuela’s San Antonio del Tachira was closed for two days while the damage resulting from the failed aid delivery attempt is evaluated. The area near the bridge was cordoned off and is being guarded by Colombian soldiers, police and some members of the ESMAD anti-riot squadron. In addition, the bridge is being blocked on the Venezuelan side by a tanker truck, with a number of masked men deployed in the area along the Tachira River on the Colombian side. Scores of Venezuelans who managed to slip across the border to get aid were trapped there as Venezuelan authorities closed it. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2475334&CategoryId=10717; http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2475324&CategoryId=10717)

 

In Venezuela, bows and arrows against tanks, four people reported slain on Venezuela-Brazil border

Nicolas Maduro’s forces in Venezuela armed with tanks and live fire attacked an indigenous tribe armed only with bows and arrows when they tried to stop a convoy of humanitarian aid from Brazil. One woman from the Pemon tribe was killed and 15 were wounded, but the tribe took several soldiers, including three lieutenants and a sergeant captive. The battle took place in the remote Gran Sabana region near the Brazilian border. The Pemon were successful at stopping the anti-riot troops in their effort to block food and supplies from entering the country through Brazil near the village of Kumarakapay, about 50 miles north of the border. The soldiers tried to breach barricades set up by residents about 6 a.m., said Jorge Perez, mayor of the Gran Sabana municipality. Marcel Perez, a 30-year-old Pemon, said in an interview in Pacaraima, Brazil, that he and others had gathered at dawn for a peaceful protest to prevent the military from reaching the border. “We made a blockade, without any weapon but our traditional bows and arrows,” he said. “They had tanks, buses and a lot of soldiers. And, so they decided to shoot at us with live bullets.” Five armored vehicles passed by, spewing tear gas that set fire to a small shack, the mayor said. Those wounded more seriously were allowed to cross on ambulances into Brazil so they could be treated in the regional center of Boa Vista. Perez said he was beaten with sticks a few hours later by members of a pro-Maduro gang while taking other wounded people to a hospital in Santa Elena de Uairen, on the Venezuelan side. Police said Zoraida Rodriguez, 45, was killed and 15 people were wounded. A Venezuelan general was negotiating with the tribe for the return of three lieutenants and a sergeant captured by the indigenous forces. The Venezuelan Congress with its opposition majority reported on Saturday that by 4:00 pm, four people had been slain while more than 20 suffered bullet wounds on Venezuela’s border with Brazil. (WND: https://www.wnd.com/2019/02/in-venezuela-bows-and-arrows-against-tanks/#06mCVSLVHotB8Xep.99; Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2475312&CategoryId=10718; Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-aid-brazil/two-people-killed-in-venezuelan-town-near-brazil-in-clashes-over-aid-idUSKCN1QC0U5)

 

Attacked and powerless, Venezuela soldiers choose desertion

A high-stakes plan by the Venezuelan opposition to bring humanitarian aid into the country floundered Saturday when troops loyal to Maduro refused to let the trucks carrying food and medical supplies cross, but it did set off a wave of military defections unlike any seen yet amid the country's mounting crisis. Over 270 mostly low-ranking soldiers fled in a span of three days, Colombian immigration officials said Monday. In interviews with The Associated Press, nine National Guard soldiers described the day that they were ordered by commanders to stop the humanitarian aid from entering Venezuela. Fearful of being jailed, many complied with orders and admitted to launching tear gas at protesters. Two said they were part of a failed plot to get the aid in. All fled after making unplanned, split-second decisions with only the uniform on their backs. While interim president Juan Guaidó has proposed amnesty to military officers who back him, the low-ranking soldiers who have defected say breaking ranks with Maduro is all but impossible. Anyone who shows the slightest hint of disapproval risks arrest, they said, and jail has become increasingly synonymous with torture. Even those who wanted to see the aid brought in, followed orders to repress citizens. As Saturday grew increasingly tense, protesters threw rocks and gasoline bombs at him. One said he responded by throwing tear gas at them to protect himself. Others at the home also had evidence of the resistance they faced that day: Torres still had blood caked beneath the skin on his nose from protesters kicking him on the ground after he surrendered to Colombian authorities. A young woman had a scratch across her cheek that she said came from a rock thrown by protesters. During the clashes, armed pro-Maduro groups known as "colectivos" fired indiscriminately, and several of the soldiers said they feared being shot themselves. National Guard troops are equipped with crowd-control devices like rubber bullets and tear gas but do not carry any regular firearms. Many said they worry their wives and children will face repercussions and they are concerned about how they will make ends meet. Nearly all the defectors would support a foreign intervention in Venezuela and join in the fight. Floating ideas among each other, several of the defectors said they believe the best way forward is for more troops to desert and help form a resistance from abroad. Some envisioned an intervention led solely by Venezuelans, while others are convinced it can only be done with the help of an international coalition. All said they don't see themselves as traitors, but rather as troops intent on restoring Venezuela's democracy. (Fox News: https://www.foxnews.com/world/attacked-and-powerless-venezuela-soldiers-choose-desertion)

 

Venezuela ex-spy chief reveals Maduro’s ties to Hezbollah, drugs

Former head of Venezuela’s intelligence services General Hugo Carvajal revealed powerful ties between the administration of Nicolás Maduro and the Hezbollah terrorist group, as well as wide-spread corruption and drug activity, the New York Times reported on Thursday. The nefarious activities were directed by Maduro himself as well as Interior Minister Néstor Reverol and former vice-president Tareck El Aissami. Allegedly, those who were meant to combat drugs were engaged in trafficking them, Carvajal said. El Aissami was not only a drug kingpin, said Carvajal, but also had connections to Hezbollah, and attempted to arrange Hezbollah terrorists to work with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia [FARC] through Venezuela. In a meeting that took place in 2009 Hezbollah terrorists met El Aissami and Carvajal in Syria and gave the two Venezuelan state representatives three assault rifles as gifts. The meeting involved Venezuelan diplomat Ghazi Nasr al-Din, who was stationed in Syria at the time.  Labeled “a Hezbollah supporter” by the department of Treasury, Nasr al-Din is wanted by the FBI. (The Jerusalem Post: https://www.jpost.com/OMG/Venezuela-ex-spy-chief-reveals-Maduros-ties-to-Hezbollah-drugs-581615)

 

UNIVISION journalists freed after being detained at Venezuelan presidential palace

The UNIVISION network said six of its staffers, including veteran anchorman Jorge Ramos, were briefly detained at the presidential palace in Caracas, Venezuela, on Monday. Ramos and the crew members were released a little less than three hours after the episode began. Daniel Coronell, UNIVISION's president of news, tweeted that "Jorge Ramos and his team have been released and are on route to their hotel." In Caracas, the Venezuelan National Union of the Press Workers also confirmed that "the UNIVISION team has been freed." The network said Ramos was in Caracas to interview Nicolas Maduro. UNIVISION spokesman Jose Zamora said Maduro objected to Ramos' questions. "Very shortly into the interview, Maduro didn't like the line of questioning, and they stopped the interview," Zamora said. He said government aides confiscated the network's equipment. UNIVISION's news executives were able to find out what happened, he said, because "Jorge managed to call us." But "in the middle of the call, they took his phone away. UNIVISION is the leading Spanish-language television network in the United States, with millions of loyal viewers. The network immediately contacted the US State Department. Kimberly Breier, the Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs, tweeted out, "We insist on their immediate release; the world is watching." After the team was released, UNIVISION broke into programming for a special report — with Ramos joining by phone. He said Maduro "got up from the interview after I showed him the videos of some young people eating out of a garbage truck." "They interrogated us. They put us in a security room. They turned off the lights," he said. Ramos called the episode a "violation." He said Maduro's aides still had the tapes. "They have stolen our work and are trying to keep what is happening from airing," he said. Pedro Ultreras, a member of the UNIVISION team in Venezuela, tweeted late Monday that immigration officials told the journalists that they will be expelled from Venezuela and must leave Tuesday morning. "The hotel we are staying in is surrounded by Venezuelan authorities, we cannot go outside," he said. Ramos, a veteran anchor born in Mexico, said he asked Maduro about the lack of democracy in Venezuela, the torture of political prisoners and the country’s humanitarian crisis. Mexico’s Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard also tweeted his government’s protest at the events. (CNN: https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/25/media/univision-venezuela-jorge-ramos/index.html; Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-univision/venezuela-to-deport-univision-team-after-maduro-shown-garbage-eating-video-idUSKCN1QF05F

 

Maduro's right-hand man sends his two youngest children to China

Venezuela's second-most powerful man has sent his children to China amid the possibility Nicolás Maduro's government will crumble.  Diosdado Cabello, known to be the second most-powerful man in Venezuela behind President Nicolás Maduro, sent two of his three children to China. Airline boarding passes showed different names for Cabello's daughter, Daniella Cabello, and his youngest son, Tito Cabello, raising suspicions because his wife's surname - Contreras - was on the boarding passes. Both children boarded the Havana to Beijing flight as Desiree Contreras and Tito Contreras, apparently using their mother's surname to hide their identities. The siblings left Havana on Friday and made it to Moscow on Saturday before connecting to a Beijing-bound flight that touched down Sunday- Daniella Cabello, 22, boarded the plane with a US-issued passport as Desiree (her middle name) Contreras while his son Tito Cabello, 17, used a Ugandan passport and used the name Tito Contreras.  The reservation system indicates they're both scheduled to return to Havana on a one-stop flight March 12. In recent days, it has been reported that several Maduro loyalists successfully arranged to have their immediate family members flee what once was considered one of the most economically powerful countries in South America. (Daily Mail: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6743013/Venezuelas-second-command-flies-two-children-China-using-wifes-surname.html)

 

OP-ED: Dictator Maduro survived a tough week, but his problems are about to get worse

The conventional wisdom in some quarters is that Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro has proved in recent days that he’s in firm control of his military goons and that he will be able to stay in power indefinitely. The conventional wisdom may be wrong. Maduro’s problems will get worse. With or without a military intervention, his illegitimate regime is cornered, isolated and increasingly unsustainable. Maduro danced in public on Feb. 23, but that image is going to haunt him. First, Maduro’s international isolation will continue to grow. Interim president Juan Guaidó is reportedly planning to return to Venezuela. If he’s arrested by the Maduro regime, we may see even stiffer international sanctions. Second, the Maduro regime’s foreign income will dwindle in coming months, as U.S. and international sanctions kick in. Third, Maduro does not have a superpower that will be willing to support him an at any cost.  Fourth, it’s unclear for how much longer Venezuela’s armed forces will stand behind Maduro. Most of the uniformed Venezuelan soldiers who blocked humanitarian aid and fired on unarmed opposition volunteers at the Colombian-Venezuelan border on Feb. 23 were not members of the army or National Guard. They were part of Maduro’s paramilitary forces. Fifth, while no U.S. or international military intervention is likely anytime soon, there might be growing pressure for a United Nations intervention if Venezuela’s humanitarian crisis continues to deteriorate. Virtually all Latin American and European countries that support Guaidó — including Colombia and Brazil — said Monday that they won’t back a U.S. or international military intervention. But if Venezuela’s humanitarian crisis continues to worsen, that could change. Barring a miracle Maduro’s political future doesn’t look good. He will be under growing domestic and foreign pressure to agree to a political solution that will most likely include his departure. By Andres Oppenheimer (The Miami Herald: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/andres-oppenheimer/article226777084.html)

 

OP-ED: What’s next for Venezuela?

Scenes of destruction and despair were on full display worldwide over the weekend as the Maduro regime used force to deny entry into Venezuela of desperately needed humanitarian assistance, leading to increasing speculation about what comes next. Or, rather, will the United States invade Venezuela to topple the despotic regime that has ruined Latin America’s once-wealthiest economy and created Latin America’s worst humanitarian crisis in many years. The threat of invasion has increasingly been implied, with senior U.S. administration officials suggesting routinely that “all options are on the table.” Indeed, they are, as they always are in the conduct of foreign affairs. But the implication is clearly that if Maduro and his inner circle refuse to depart, then the use of force may be employed. However, as bad as the situation continues to get in Venezuela an armed response is unlikely. First, there is no casus belli that would justify a U.S.-led invasion. Nor is there a mandate from the United Nations or OAS. The doctrine of Responsibility to Protect is not sufficiently developed or accepted at this point, and circumstances do not yet justify its application to Venezuela in any event. Latin American nations, including those that support strong actions against Maduro, have publicly indicated little support for armed intervention, and, despite the rhetoric, there does not appear to be much enthusiasm in Washington for such a step. What can be anticipated is that there will be further intensified pressure on the regime. In addition to efforts to entice regime officials, including the military, to shift their loyalty from Maduro to Guaidó, the United States, in coordination with other nations, looks to amplify asset seizure and forfeiture. Collectively, they aim to deny new and cancel existing visas for regime officials and their families and increase humanitarian assistance. All these activities will further the goal of turning Maduro into an international pariah, and, it is hoped, create conditions that will ultimately see him turfed from office. The key is to keep the Maduro regime on the defensive. There are no guarantees, and nobody can say when the dam will ultimately break—or if it will break. Meanwhile, Venezuelans face an unpleasant choice between protesting and exposing themselves to the excesses of the regime, hunkering down, or joining the millions of Venezuelans who have already left their nation behind. It is a tragedy lain squarely at the feet of Chavismo. By Eric Farnsworth. (The National Interest: https://nationalinterest.org/feature/what%E2%80%99s-next-venezuela-45577)

Thursday, January 10, 2019

January 10, 2019


International Trade

Venezuela launches WTO challenge to U.S. sanctions

Venezuela has launched a complaint at the World Trade Organization to challenge U.S. sanctions, saying that a ban on travel by blacklisted individuals and trade restrictions break WTO rules, a WTO filing showed on Tuesday. In the complaint, filed on Dec. 28, Venezuela also cited U.S. rules on sales of gold and discriminatory treatment of Venezuela’s debt and transactions in digital currency as breaches of the WTO rulebook. (CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/08/reuters-america-venezuela-launches-wto-challenge-to-u-s-sanctions.html)

 

Oil & Energy

Venezuela congress slams oil deals with U.S., French companies

Venezuela’s opposition-run congress on Tuesday issued a resolution calling deals between state-run oil company PDVSA and U.S. and French companies announced this week illegal, since they had not been sent to lawmakers for approval. The body said the oilfield deals with France’s Maurel & Prom and little-known U.S. company EREPLA violated article 150 of Venezuela’s constitution, which requires that contracts signed between the state and foreign companies be approved by the National Assembly, as Venezuela’s congress is known. “They are giving concessions that violate the law,” said lawmaker Jorge Millan, mentioning the two contracts. Congress, largely stripped of its power since the opposition took it over in 2016, is unlikely to be able block the deals from going forward. But the rejection could create legal complications under a future government. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-oil/venezuela-congress-slams-oil-deals-with-u-s-french-companies-idUSKCN1P22HG)

 

Venezuela plans to remap its offshore oil territory, escalating tension with EXXON

Venezuela will remap its Caribbean oil and gas prospects in a move that could further stoke a century-long border dispute with Guyana and collide with EXXON MOBIL Corp.’s venture in the region, people with knowledge of the plan said. The seismic survey is planned for the coming months and will include an eastern area of Venezuela that borders Guyana. Venezuela has mapped its offshore territory for oil deposits in the past, but some areas remain uncharted. The new survey will also include areas bordering Caribbean islands such as Grenada and Saint Vincent. “More surveys are pending to identify commercially viable options for gas,” said Antero Alvarado, a managing partner at consulting firm Gas Energy Latin America. “Past PDVSA studies ignored identifying gas deposits because the focus was always on oil.’’ Maduro has issued a decree stating Venezuela’s continental shelf is open for oil exploration, although no investment plans have been announced for the area yet. PDVSA’s offshore division produces mainly gas from the western coast in a partnership with Italy’s ENI. It also has several inactive oil and gas projects in the east, near Trinidad and Tobago and Guyana. Three of them are in partnerships with Norway’s EQUINOR ASA, CHEVRON Corp. and France’s TOTAL. (Bloomberg: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/venezuela-plans-remap-offshore-oil-100000274.html)

 

Venezuela claims it can prove EXXON ships entered its waters

The Venezuelan government presented on Tuesday what it described as evidence that vessels belonging to global oil giant EXXONMOBIL entered the nation’s territorial waters last month. Vice President Delcy Rodriguez presented a press conference with audiovisual material in which officers of the Venezuelan navy are heard talking with crews of the oil company’s ships. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2472825&CategoryId=10717; AVN, http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/venezuela-will-deliver-evidence-illegal-incursion-exxonmobil-ships; Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-08/venezuela-is-said-to-map-caribbean-as-tension-with-exxon-grows)

 

Curacao oil refinery resumes work after eight-month stoppage

Curacao’s 335,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) ISLA refinery has resumed work, management of the government-owned facility said on Tuesday, after eight months of paralysis caused by a dispute between its operator, Venezuela’s PDVSA, and U.S. producer CONOCO PHILLIPS. ISLA, which has been looking for a new operator to run the refinery beginning at the end of this year, restarted one of its crude distillation units and its thermal cracker, it said in a statement. The plant suffered a fire early last year and fell idle after CONOCO PHILLIPS brought legal actions against PDVSA over a US$ 2-billion arbitration award linked to the nationalization of CONOCO’s projects in Venezuela. The U.S. company got court orders temporarily seizing PDVSA’s cargoes and terminals across the Caribbean. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-refinery-operations-pdvsa-curacao/curacao-oil-refinery-resumes-work-after-eight-month-stoppage-idUSKCN1P22CI)

 

Mohammed Barkindo: Venezuela continues to be a key country for OPEC

On Tuesday, OPEC secretary, Mohammed Barkindo, held a meeting at the Miraflores Palace with the President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, as part of his visit to the country for the inauguration of the President. Thursday, January 10th. In his statements to the media, Barkindo stressed that Venezuela continues to be fundamental in all the efforts promoted by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). (AVN, http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/mohammed-barkindo-venezuela-continues-be-key-country-opec)

 

Economy & Finance

Maduro era is endurance test as Venezuela's lifelines fall away

President Nicolas Maduro’s second term is officially six years. However, it will endure only as long as Venezuela’s moribund economy allows. He has weathered protests, impeachment drives, an assassination attempt and U.S. sanctions. But as Venezuela’s economic lifelines drop away, his survival now depends on the country’s stamina. In his next term, Maduro must manage to feed a hungry nation, kick-start production at state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA and fend off creditors threatening to snatch up assets abroad. He has deepened ties with authoritarian allies such as Russia, China and Turkey, but they have provided only limited support. Maduro shows no sign of hesitation: “Rain, thunder or lightning,” he said this week. “Venezuela will stay on its course.” Calls are growing within the ruling socialist party to dissolve the opposition-led congress, the only elected institution Maduro doesn’t control, and one that has already been defanged. On Tuesday, the politically omnipotent National Constituent Assembly passed a measure that could be the first step to enable its disappearance. The super-body convened by the president also threatened treason investigations against dissident lawmakers. Constituent Assembly President Diosdado Cabello said Tuesday that lawmakers in the threatened national legislature who support the idea should be punished. “Those who are now in the National Assembly are traitors. Several lawmakers turned their backs on the most sacred: respect for sovereignty,” he said. Increasingly, however, it’s the Chavistas against the world. Now the U.S. is even considering designating Venezuela itself as a state sponsor of terrorism. Throughout it all, America has remained the primary buyer of Venezuelan crude. Gregory Weeks, a professor of political science at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte, said that if the U.S. truly wants to isolate Venezuela, it would have to stop buying its oil. “You can say you’re not going to recognize him, but if you’re still trading and buying Venezuela oil, how much does it really matter?” Weeks said. (Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-10/maduro-era-is-endurance-test-as-venezuela-s-lifelines-fall-away)

 

Venezuela to collect tax in cryptocurrency - but no Petro?

A decree issued yesterday by Nicolas Maduro’s government states that those conducting business in Venezuela involving either cryptocurrency or foreign fiat money must also pay taxes on that business using cryptocurrency or foreign fiat money, respectively. Exceptions to this stipulation, according to article two, include an exemption for securities traded on the national stock market, and on the “export of goods and services, carried out by bodies or public entities.” The plan to accept cryptos is not fleshed-out yet, however, and currently seems to be only an aspiration of this particular issue of the gazette. Notably, the decree does not mention which particular cryptoassets are usable for paying taxes. There is no mention anywhere in the decree of the country’s national crypto, the Petro, a ERC-20 token issued on the Ethereum network. (Cryptoglobe: https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2019/01/venezuela-to-collect-tax-in-cryptocurrency-but-no-petro/)

 

Mexico tortilla giant GRUMA sues Venezuela for US$ 525 million over 2010 expropriation

The world's leading tortilla maker GRUMA's Spanish subsidiaries Valores Mundiales, S.L. and Consorcio Andino, S.L. have filed a US $525 million lawsuit in U.S. Federal District Court in Washington, D.C. against Venezuela over the expropriation of its Venezuela subsidiaries. The lawsuit is to enforce a US$ 525 million award made against Venezuela for the expropriation of GRUMA's food businesses in Venezuela. On July 25, 2017, an arbitral tribunal brought before the World Bank's International Center for the Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) ruled that Venezuela must pay Valores Mundiales, S.L. and Consorcio Andino, S.L. US$ 430.4 million in damages, plus compound interest at LIBOR + 2% from January 22, 2013 and until the effective date of payment of the Award, and more than US$ 5.9 million in legal expenses and costs incurred by GRUMA in the course of the arbitration, meaning that Venezuela owes some US$ 525 million to GRUMA. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2472777&CategoryId=10717)

 

Politics and International Affairs

Venezuela's neighbors turn up heat as Nicolás Maduro begins second term

In a televised new year’s message to his atrophying nation, Nicolás Maduro struck an upbeat tone. “Victory awaits us! The future awaits us! And everything will be better!” Venezuela’s embattled president insisted, declaring 2019 “the year of fresh starts”. But the sandbags and rifle-toting troops that now encircle the Miraflores presidential palace in Caracas suggest far less confidence about the days ahead, as Venezuela sinks deeper into economic ruin and political isolation and questions grow over Maduro’s future. Hugo Chávez’s 56-year-old heir – narrowly elected after his mentor’s 2013 death and then again in disputed elections last May – will begin his second presidential term on Thursday, amid intensifying international condemnation of what critics call his illegitimate and authoritarian rule. Last week, a regional bloc known as the Lima Group turned up the heat, with 13 of its 14 members announcing they would not recognize Maduro’s new six-year term and urging him to step down. Those countries included Brazil, whose new president, Jair Bolsonaro, is well-known for his hostility to Maduro and whose pro-Trump foreign minister recently called for Venezuela’s “liberation”. The US has also stepped up pressure ahead of what it calls Maduro’s “sham inauguration” with the secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, telling one Brazilian newspaper “several things” could be done to rid Venezuela of Maduro’s “unacceptable” regime. Pompeo did not specify what those “things” might be. But after years of dawdling, regional patience does appear to be running out, as the situation in Venezuela deteriorates and Latin American politics swerves to the right under leaders such as Bolsonaro, Colombia’s Iván Duque, Chile’s Sebastián Piñera and Argentina’s Mauricio Macri. The Lima Group’s unexpectedly firm declaration – which includes plans for financial sanctions, preventing top Venezuela officials entering their countries, and suspending military cooperation – appeared partly designed to persuade the Venezuelan military to abandon their commander-in-chief. But any international effort to engineer a peaceful transition would founder unless Venezuela’s fractured opposition united. (The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/09/venezuela-nicolas-maduro-second-term-neighbours-latin-america)

 

Maduro accuses US of using Lima Group to instigate coup in Venezuela

President Nicolas Maduro has accused the United States of using the Lima Group of American countries to instigate a coup against his government, one day before being sworn in for a second term widely regarded as illegitimate. "I cannot lie to you, civilian and military companions... a coup d'etat is under way under the orders of Washington, from the Lima cartel against the constitutional government I preside over," the national news agency quoted Maduro as saying. "We shall not allow even a single slip. Whatever his name, whatever post he holds, whoever tries to promote a coup plan should know that he will face justice, the constitution and the civilian-military powers," Maduro added. (DPA: http://www.dpa-international.com/topic/maduro-accuses-us-using-lima-group-instigate-coup-venezuela-190110-99-499405)

 

Maduro warns of 'diplomatic measures' against Latin American critics

President Nicolas Maduro on Wednesday warned he could take “diplomatic measures” against Latin American nations that signed a statement last week describing his second term, which starts on Thursday, as illegitimate. Venezuela “has alerted very clearly to the governments of the Cartel of Lima that, if they do not rectify their position (...) we will take the most crude and energetic measures that can be taken in diplomacy,” Maduro, using a pejorative name for the group widely used by ruling Socialist Party leaders. He did not provide details what measures he could take. (Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics/venezuelas-maduro-warns-of-diplomatic-measures-against-latam-critics-idUSKCN1P32C0)

 

Group of Lima nations to deny entry to Venezuelan officials

Thirteen nations from the Group of Lima have agreed to deny entry to high-ranking officials of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's government. Colombian Foreign Minister Carlos Holmes said the decision was made after a Friday meeting of the group in Peru. At the end of the Friday meeting, the Peruvian Foreign Ministry issued a joint resolution of the Group of Lima -- in which Mexico was not included -- asking President Nicolas Maduro to abstain from assuming the presidency, to transfer power to the National Assembly and to call for new elections. The resolution said that Group of Lima countries would, depending on internal legislation, take action to prevent the entry of high-ranking Venezuelan officials to their territories and evaluate lists of Venezuelan people and organizations with which transactions will be banned. (UPI: https://www.upi.com/Group-of-Lima-nations-to-deny-entry-to-Venezuelan-officials/9721547047206/#ixzz5cB7CU8ip)

 

Caribbean to decide the fate of Nicaragua and Venezuela at the OAS

The Permanent Council of the Organization of American States (OAS) will meet this week to address the situation of the dictatorships in Venezuela and Nicaragua. In the first case, the government of Nicolas Maduro runs the risk of being repudiated by the OAS, and in the case of Daniel Ortega, is on the verge of the application of the Inter-American Democratic Charter. In this vote, the 15 countries that make up the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) would have an important weight, which will also be very important in the case of Venezuela. The session of Venezuela will be on January 10th and the session of Nicaragua on the 11th. The process for the application of the Inter-American Democratic Charter began on December 27 after the announcement of the secretary general of the regional body, Luis Almagro. In the case of the territorial conflict over the Essequibo region between Venezuela and Guyana, CARICOM has closed ranks in favor of Guyana. Manuel Salvador Abaunza, former ambassador of Nicaragua in Venezuela, says that from January 10 there will be changes in the panorama, because the regime of Nicolas Maduro will have lost legitimacy. “It is very certain that the Caribbean countries will see that they have no future of any kind with Maduro and that it is better for them to start negotiating with the United States, or at least show a change of attitude, because Maduro no longer offers them anything by becoming a De-legitimized state,” he explained. Venezuela still has a card under its sleeve to play -which is Guyana- and that is to offer the Caribbean that they will settle the conflict with Guyana below the table. If that scenario occurs, Venezuela could get CARICOM to vote against both the Nicaraguan resolution and the one against Venezuela. (Havana Times: https://havanatimes.org/?p=146723)

 

World leaders to skip Maduro inauguration amid possible further EU sanctions

 President Nicolas Maduro’s new term will bring further international pressure on Caracas as dozens of countries have called his May re-election fraudulent and pledged not to recognize his new government. The European Union is expected to release a strongly worded warning hinting that further EU sanctions could be levied on the country, should the president continue to flout human rights and the rule of law. The lack of international recognition will be apparent from the lack of foreign visitors at the inauguration ceremony for Maduro, due to be held at 10 am outside the Supreme Court building. Only Cuba and Bolivia have confirmed their presidents will attend, while a handful of other countries will send diplomats.  Plans to organize a mass boycott of the investiture ceremony by all 28 EU ambassadors to Venezuela appeared to have fallen foul of divisions in the bloc, however. The Telegraph understands that the Spanish and Greek ambassadors will attend, but Britain’s will not. Other drastic proposals within Latin America, such as the withdrawal of diplomatic missions from the country or the appointment of a parallel president in exile, have also been rejected for now. To squash any discontent, Maduro will rely on the armed forces and paramilitary groups known locally as colectivos, as he did during 2017 street protests. In the days preceding the inauguration, local media have reported caravans of government supporters, including masked men on truck beds, passing through downtown Caracas. In one of the city’s most emblematic slums, traditionally a bastion of pro-government support, government supporters fired guns into the air on rooftops. (The Telegraph: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/01/09/world-leaders-skip-maduro-inauguration-amid-possible-eu-sanctions/)

 

European Parliament reaffirms support for Venezuela’s National Assembly

Antonio Tajani, President of the European Parliament, has expressed support for the the legitimate National Assembly in Venezuela, in a telephone call to the Assembly’s newly elected President, Juan Guaidó. More in Spanish: (Noticiero Venevisión, http://www.noticierovenevision.net/noticias/internacional/europarlamento-envio-mensaje-de-apoyo-a-la-asamblea-nacional)

 

Spain and Portugal will not send representatives to Maduro’s second inaugural

Spain’s government has confirmed it will not send official representatives to Nicolás Maduro’s swearing in ceremonies. The 28 nations within the European Union announced in December that they would not send representatives if the ceremony were to be held anywhere other than the National Assembly, and that should it take place elsewhere representation would be “beneath ambassadorial rank”. More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/internacional/30146/gobierno-de-espana-no-asistira-a-toma-de-posesion-de-maduro)

 

Ecuador will not send a representative to Maduro’s swearing-in

Ecuador’s President Lenin Moreno has announced his government’s decision to not send representatives to Nicolás Maduro’s swearing-in ceremony citing the Venezuelan regimen’s violation of human rights: “International protection for human rights is an ethical and legal obligation, not intervention into the internal affairs of other countries”, he said. He called for solving Venezuela’s problems in a peaceful and democratic way, “through dialogue”. More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/politica/30150/lenin-moreno-anuncio-que-ecuador-no-enviara-representacion-para-asuncion-de-maduro)

 

As Maduro begins new term in Venezuela, opposition sees trouble looming

As Maduro begins his new term on Thursday — one that will have him leading the nation until 2025 — Julio Borges is aware of the perception that Maduro is firmly in control. But Borges doesn’t buy it. As one of Venezuela’s most visible opposition figures who’s not in detention, Borges has spent his time lobbying foreign governments to turn the screws on Maduro. And it’s been working. Borges, 49, has been one of President Nicolas Maduro’s harshest critics over the decades. A co-founder of the Primero Justicia political party and the president of the National Assembly from 2017-2018, he’s been living in exile since March, amid fears that he would join other colleagues who have been detained or died in jail. Not surprisingly, Borges’ advocacy has put him in Maduro’s cross-hairs. The president routinely accuses him of plotting coups and encouraging international invasions. While Borges says he has always favored a peaceful, democratic transition, he said the Maduro administration has opened the door to violence by closing off real opportunities for change. In August, Maduro accused Borges of being one of the masterminds behind an alleged assassination plot that included an explosive-packed drone. Talking in Bogotá, Colombia, his home in exile, Borges says there are plenty of reasons to believe that Maduro may not get to finish out his new term. “Maduro remains in power, fundamentally, due to two things: the support of the military — really just the upper ranks — and the dictatorial know-how of the Cubans,” Borges said. “Outside of that Maduro has nothing. There’s no economic support, no diplomatic support, no political support. ... I think he’s irredeemably defeated and it’s impossible for him to overcome the crisis he’s created.” Borges said the democratic opposition has used every avenue possible to create change: organizing protests, engaging in dialogue, winning the National Assembly, calling for a boycott during the 2018 presidential election, promoting international sanctions. But nothing has moved the needle. “We have done everything we can through civil society and organized politics,” he said. “But the government doesn’t care how much damage is produced as it clings to power.” He adds: “The constitution itself says that any citizen, with or without authority, has the right to restore the constitution, and that’s what society is pleading for the armed forces to do … They are asking for the armed forces to restore the constitution, which Maduro is ignoring.”  Borges said that Maduro clearly has the support of the military’s higher echelon, “the corrupt elite,” but is losing the rank and file. And that’s where the real threats are brewing … what I can tell you with certainty is that inside Venezuela’s armed forces they are not only tired of Maduro, but they’re in revolt. And the country is asking for them to complete their ‘divorce’ … for dignified, constitutional and democratic armed forces to see resurgence.” (The Miami Herald: https://www.miamiherald.com/latest-news/article224124250.html)

 

Defense minister asked Maduro to resign: Washington Post

Venezuela’s defense minister told socialist President Nicolas Maduro to step down last month, and said he would offer his own resignation if he did not, the Washington Post reported on Wednesday, citing an anonymous U.S. intelligence official. Both Maduro and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez are still in office. Maduro is set to be sworn in for a second six-year term on Thursday, though several countries in the region have warned him not to take office, calling his May 2018 re-election vote a sham. Discontent within the military’s ranks has grown as Venezuela’s economic collapse has deepened, prompting millions to migrate. Security forces tortured dozens of military personnel accused of subversion last year, according to human rights groups, and detentions for desertion have increased. A U.S. government source told Reuters the government believes reports that Padrino threatened to resign if Maduro did not depart are credible. This week, however, General Padrino made a public statement on behalf of the Venezuelan military, expressing “indignation over the meddling of Latin American governments, under the auspices of the United States, through which they are attempting to ignore Venezuela’s unrelinquishable rights over the Essequibo region”. (Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-defense/venezuelas-defense-minister-asked-maduro-to-resign-washington-post-idUSKCN1P32LQ); and more in Spanish: (El Universal; http://www.eluniversal.com/politica/30048/fanb-rechazo-injerencia-de-paises-latinoamericanos)

 

Military personnel, relatives tortured in Venezuela: HRW

Venezuelan security forces in recent years have detained and tortured dozens of military personnel accused of plotting against the government, and in some cases their family members, two human rights groups said in a report published on Wednesday. The report by New York-based Human Rights Watch and Venezuela’s Penal Forum, which also says forces tortured civilians, comes as countries in the region are pushing the International Criminal Court to probe the government for alleged crimes against humanity. In most cases, members of the country's General Directorate of Military Counterintelligence (DGCIM) or the Bolivarian National Intelligence Services (SEBIN) carried out the arrests, according to the rights groups. In the report, detainees described being strangled, deprived of food and having the soles of their feet cut with razor blades. "The Venezuelan government has brutally cracked down on members of the military accused of plotting against it," said Jose Miguel Vivanco, Americas director at Human Rights Watch. The two groups analyzed information about cases involving a total of 32 people. Victims include military officers accused of plotting against the government and civilians accused of collaborating with Oscar Perez, a rogue police official who was killed in January 2018 after opposing the government. Several detainees did not have access to their families, lawyers or adequate medical treatment during their detentions, the report said. The individuals were arrested for crimes including "treason" and "instigating rebellion", however lawyers representing the accused said the charges were fabricated and not supported by any real evidence. (Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/01/military-personnel-relatives-tortured-venezuela-hrw-190109155041848.html; Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-rights/venezuela-tortured-military-personnel-accused-of-subversion-rights-groups-idUSKCN1P30BD)

 

Venezuela names ex-spy chief as head of new presidential security unit

Venezuela’s former spy chief, who was ousted last year amid an uproar over the death of a jailed opposition politician, was sworn in on Tuesday as the head of a newly-created presidential security council, according to state television. General Gustavo Gonzalez Lopez was replaced as the head of the National Bolivarian Intelligence Service (SEBIN) in October after opposition councilman Fernando Alban died while detained at the agency’s headquarters in Caracas. The death was officially ruled a suicide, but critics said he was killed. Gonzalez Lopez was sworn in by Vice President Delcy Rodriguez in a brief ceremony just days before socialist President Nicolas Maduro is set to be inaugurated for a second term. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics/venezuela-names-ex-spy-chief-as-head-of-new-presidential-security-unit-idUSKCN1P301X)

 

Pope criticized for comments on Venezuela and Nicaragua by 20 ex-leaders

In response to Pope Francisco’s annual Urbi et Orbi Christmas speech, 20 ex-leaders from across Latin America wrote a letter to the religious leader criticizing his words regarding the situations in Venezuela and Nicaragua. In his speech, the Pope expressed a desire for Venezuela to find “harmony” and for Nicaragua to reach “reconciliation,” both criticized by the ex-presidents of the region for being too simplistic. The letter was inspired by the Democratic Initiative of Spain and the Americas (IDEA), headed by ex-president of Costa Rica and Nobel Peace Prize winner Oscar.  Your Holiness’ speech … is being interpreted in a very negative way by many in Venezuela and Nicaragua,” the letter stated. “In the current context,” it explained, “your speech could be interpreted as a request to the people who are victims to agree with their aggressors.” In relation to Venezuela, the Pope asked that “it finds peace again and that all the members of the society work together for the development of the country, helping the weakest area of the population.”  “[Venezuelans] are victims of oppression by a militarized narco-dictatorship,” the letter read, “which has no qualms in systematically infringing the right to life, freedom and personal integrity.” (Chile Herald: https://chileherald.com/pope-criticised-for-comments-on-venezuela-and-nicaragua-by-20-ex-leaders/1592/)

 

Venezuela is in crisis. so how did Maduro secure a second term?

President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela is set to be inaugurated on Thursday for the second time, extending his term in office to 2025, after winning an election last year that had been rejected by nations across the region as illegitimate. But even as his country is grappling with a humanitarian crisis driven by this collapse, Maduro has clung to power. So how did he get here, and how has he managed to hold on? Here’s what to know as Mr. Maduro begins his second term in office. Maduro’s re-election in May 2018 was widely criticized, with reports of coercion, fraud and electoral rigging. Election officials said Maduro won 68% of the vote. The chaotic state of the country and the desperation of poor voters may have contributed to Maduro’s ability to maintain control. Representatives of Maduro’s party tracked those who voted by registering their “Fatherland Card” — or national benefits card — and promised aid and government subsidized food handouts if re-elected. Independent international observers were not on hand, and a crackdown on critics left several of them unable to participate. Opposition leaders called for a boycott of the election, and that, combined with the disillusionment of many longtime government supporters, meant the turnout was exceptionally low. Less than half of the country’s voters cast ballots. How strong is his grip on power? Despite international criticism and a crisis at home, Maduro has won the loyalty of the country’s powerful military by handing its leaders control of the food and oil industries as well as profitable mining regions. But there are clear signs of growing discontent. While the country’s opposition lost much of its power as a result of government persecution and the forced exile of some of its most prominent figures, the election last week of a new president in the opposition-controlled National Assembly, Juan Guaidó, has renewed calls to remove Maduro from power. Who still supports him? Maduro has found some allies in the region, including President Evo Morales of Bolivia, a fellow socialist who will attend the inauguration. And Mexico’s new leftist president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, invited  Maduro to his own inauguration and has taken a friendlier stance in relations with Venezuela than his predecessor. Russia has remained a staunch ally, with President Vladimir V. Putin voicing his support for Maduro during a December meeting in Moscow. Venezuela has also received recent financial support from China. Within his country, loyal “chavista” governors, named for their support of Chávez and his revolutionary leftist policies, expressed their support for Maduro in a news conference on Wednesday. What’s the impact on Venezuelans? Daily life in Venezuela has become unrecognizable from what it was a few short years ago. Where once the government built homes, clinics and schools for the poor as part of its socialist policy, people are now finding themselves without the most basic necessities. The country’s health system has collapsed, leaving many without access to lifesaving medicine. Hunger is common, and the shelves of grocery stores lie bare. But there is no sense conditions are improving. (The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/10/world/americas/venezuela-maduro-inauguration.html)

 

EDITORIAL: Latin America has never seen a crisis like Venezuela before

The epic political and humanitarian crisis in Venezuela is due to pass a new juncture Thursday when President Nicolás Maduro is sworn in for a second six-year term. His first saw an implosion unprecedented in modern Latin American history: Though his country was not at war, its economy shrank by 50%. What was once the region’s richest society was swept by epidemics of malnutrition, preventable diseases and violent crime. Three million people fled the country. Yet Maduro, having orchestrated a fraudulent reelection, presses on with what the regime describes as a socialist revolution, with tutoring from Cuba and predatory loans from Russia and China. If there is any light in this bleak picture, it is that Venezuela’s neighbors are edging toward more assertive action to stem a crisis that, with the massive flow of refugees, threatens to destabilize several other countries. Last week, 13 governments, including Brazil, Colombia, Argentina and Canada, issued a statement declaring Maduro’s presidency illegitimate and threatening sanctions. Peru imposed travel and banking restrictions on Maduro and his cabinet, and several countries said they would recognize the opposition-controlled National Assembly as Venezuela’s only legitimate institution. Unfortunately, that is unlikely to move the regime. Like three administrations before it, the Trump White House has struggled over how to respond to the Chavistas. As conditions continue to deteriorate Maduro may finally be toppled by dissidents inside the regime or a new popular uprising. If not, the pressure Venezuela is putting on its neighbors will escalate. One recent study by scholars at the Brookings Institution concluded that 5 million more refugees may pour across the borders. The region has never seen a crisis like this: a steadily escalating catastrophe with no solution — either from inside or outside — in sight. (The Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/latin-america-has-never-seen-a-crisis-like-venezuela-before/2019/01/09/26cc15b4-1381-11e9-b6ad-9cfd62dbb0a8_story.html)

 

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.