Venezuelan Daily Brief

Published in association with The DVA Group and The Selinger Group, the Venezuelan Daily Brief provides bi-weekly summaries of key news items affecting bulk commodities and the general business environment in Venezuela.

Showing posts with label General Motors. Show all posts
Showing posts with label General Motors. Show all posts

Thursday, August 20, 2015

August 20, 2015


International Trade

 

New Housing Minister announces building material has arrived from China

General Manuel Quevedo, appointed this same week as the new Minister for Housing, has announced that steel rods, bathroom equipment, doors, electric scaffolding, window frames and other building materials have arrived at Puerto Cabello from China for government housing programs. More in Spanish: (Bolipuertos, http://www.bolipuertos.gob.ve/noticia.aspx?id=26694)

 

Maduro closes Colombia border crossing for 3 days

President Nicolas Maduro has ordered the closure of a major border crossing with Colombia after three soldiers were attacked while looking for smugglers. He the normally busy border in western Tachira state would remain closed for 72 hours. He also vowed to mount a special mission to boost protection for Venezuelans living along the 1,400 mile (2,200-kilometer) border, an area long plagued by violence stemming from Colombia's long-running conflict and the presence of drug-trafficking gangs. Maduro's announcement came hours after the attack of three army officers while they were carrying out patrols in the border town of San Antonio. Maduro said that the assailants, who haven't been identified, shot the officers — two lieutenants and a captain — from behind before fleeing on motorcycles. Maduro regularly blames smugglers and paramilitaries allegedly linked to former Colombian President Alvaro Uribe for violence that has spilled over the border in recent years. As part of a government crackdown against the flow of contraband, the government this year has closed the border in Tachira at night, deployed more troops and toughened jail sentences for anyone caught smuggling. It's also rolled a fingerprint-scanning system to restrict the amount of any single product shoppers can buy. In total, the government says more than 6,000 people have been arrested for smuggling in the past year and more than 28,000 tons of food seized last year in anti-smuggling operations. Opponents say the restrictions are futile and blame price and currency controls for much of the criminality as goods purchased at ultra-low prices in Venezuela are resold for huge profits in Colombia. (New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/08/20/world/americas/ap-lt-venezuela-colombia-border.html; More in Spanish: Diario 2001, http://www.2001.com.ve/en-la-agenda/107143/presidente-maduro-ordena-cierre-de-la-frontera-con-colombia-en-tachira.html; AVN; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/presidente-maduro-orden%C3%B3-cierre-frontera-del-estado-t%C3%A1chira-colombia-72-horas; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/150820/ordenan-cierre-de-frontera-en-tachira-por-72-horas)

 

 

Oil & Energy

 

Oil prices continue dropping further, WTI at US$ 40.71

Analysts expected US crude oil inventories to drop by 770,000 barrels, but instead they have grown. WTI oil prices are now at US$ 40.71 per barrel, a 4.48% drop since Tuesday. Brent, US$ 46.94, down 3.83%. More in Spanish: (El Universal; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/150820/que-esta-pasando)

 

India expects cash-strapped Venezuela to pay dues in oil

India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corp. is in discussions to take US$ 535 million worth of crude in lieu of cash for its share of sales from a Venezuelan oilfield. The company’s overseas unit, ONGC Videsh Ltd., owns 40% of the San Cristobal field and invested about US$ 190 million in the project in 2008. State-run Petroleos de Venezuela S.A., or PDVSA, holds the remaining stake. A deal to pay the Indian producer its share of revenue from the field in crude should be reached by March, according to Narendra Kumar Verma, the company’s managing director. Venezuela is already repaying loans outstanding to China with crude. Shipments to China will reach 390,000 barrels a day at an estimated average price of US$ 51 a barrel this year, up from 227,800 barrels at an average price of US$ 88.40 last year, according to Barclays analysts. (Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-20/india-expect-cash-strapped-venezuela-to-pay-dues-in-oil)

 

Venezuela gets new oil minister

President Nicolas Maduro has announced the current head of state oil giant PDVSA will take over as minister of oil and mining as well. Del Pino, a civilian who has led PDVSA since September 2014, is not the first to take on the dual ministerial role in the oil-dependent OPEC member state. Rafael Ramirez led the same two state oil bodies for a decade until he was named foreign minister and later UN ambassador. Maduro voiced concern about the continuing slide in crude prices, which have shed 27% since early June. Del Pino will take over the ministry from Asdrubal Chavez to allow the latter to run for parliament in December's key election. The outgoing Chavez, a cousin of the late ruler, was not a heavyweight in the oil sector and was generally seen as having more of a political role. Del Pino, however, is seen as a technocrat vying to turn around the socialist country's troubled oil sector. (Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/19/venezuela-oil-idUSL1N10U02X20150819; Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2394718&CategoryId=10717; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/150819/president-maduro-appoints-new-petroleum-and-housing-ministers; Agence France Press: https://en-maktoob.news.yahoo.com/venezuela-gets-oil-minister-152136267--finance.html)

 

 

Commodities

 

Domestic detergent production is grinding to a halt

Detergent production for domestic use is grinding to a halt. One week after COLGATE PALMOLIVE announced it was stopping production for lack of packing materials, the POLAR powdered soap plant (Las Llaves) had to follow suit for want of sodium sulfate, which is an indispensable ingredient. More in Spanish: (Ultimas Noticias, http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/actualidad/economia/se-detuvo-produccion-de-jabon-las-llaves.aspx#ixzz3jLYHLab7; El Mundo, http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/economia/empresas/polar-paralizo-produccion-de-jabon-en-polvo.aspx; El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/)

 

2,600 General Motors Venezuela’s workers were sent home on forced vacations as its inventories of raw material for car assembly got to zero. In its Valencia plant, GM Venezuela has barely manufactured 4,400 units January through Friday, August 14, i.e. 15.71% of its 4,000 units a month installed capacity. (Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=45124&idc=3)

 

Bread prices in Caracas went up 40% (Bs.10) in one week in the case of the baguettes while other presentations went up Bs.10 to Bs.15. The daily 2001 explained the wheat flour imported by the government is being sold at US$ 800/ton, almost twice what it would have cost if the dollars had been authorized to the private sector when needed (US$ 450). (Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=45114&idc=3)

 

Workers at PEPSICOLA, POLAR, CARGILL and CLOVER warehouses located in La Yaguara asked the central government to repeal the expropriation and eviction measure on the properties. They rallied outside their places of work to ask the Housing and Habitat Ministry to find other vacant lots for housing building in the city. (Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=45115&idc=3)

 

 

Economy & Finance

 

Cash-strapped Venezuela may sell gold reserves, drive prices down further

Countries facing cash shortages may be tempted to sell part of their gold reserves to raise funds, according to CITIGROUP Inc., which cited Venezuela as a potential example amid concern it may default.  Gold retreated to a five-year low in July as the dollar rallied on prospects of higher U.S. interest rates. Should Venezuela sell part of its gold, prices could see lows maintained, says the report. Venezuela had 11.607 million ounces of gold as of September, according to data from the International Monetary Fund. About 68% of the country’s reserves are in bullion as of August, according to the CITIGROUP report. Venezuela “appears poised for a near-term crisis” amid protests and shortages of basic goods as the country heads for parliamentary elections in December, according to RBC Capital Markets Ltd. The cost of insuring the government’s five-year bonds has rebounded to near a 12-year high. In 2011 and 2012, Venezuela’s government repatriated most of bullion that it had held in overseas banks. The move was ordered by then-President Hugo Chavez as a safeguard against instability in financial markets. “The problem is most of the Venezuelan gold is located in Caracas,” said one analyst, “No bank is going to take collateral for gold that’s actually held in Caracas. (Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-19/cash-strapped-venezuela-may-sell-gold-reserves-citigroup-says)

 

Uruguay's Senate approves deal to buy back debt with Venezuela at 38% discount


 

Central Bank of Venezuela publishes rules to centralize all official FOREX holdings

Venezuela has ordered all government banks and institutions to centralize FOREX holdings at the Central Bank, and has published the rules for the procedure. The financial service for special accounts, required to pay the obligations in foreign currency abroad, should be provided by the selected public agency and previously notified to the BCV. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/150819/central-bank-of-venezuela-publishes-rules-to-centralize-foreign-curren)

 

Venezuelan business federation calls for economic consensus

The President of the Venezuelan Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FEDECÁMARAS), Francisco Martínez, is calling for urgent measures to oxygenate the economy; and alerts that those measures must not depend on the upcoming parliamentary vote to be held in December. He explained that if the government puts off actions aimed at improving the economy over fears for a given electoral outcome, it would be a serious mistake. Martínez commented that consensus was required among the public sector, workers, and businessmen to take the necessary steps and actions to recover the economy. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/150819/venezuelan-business-sector-calls-for-economic-consensus)

 

Venezuelan bonds averaged a percent point loss on Monday while the PDVSA’s bonds dropped 2.21% in average. The ones which experienced the sharpest drops were the PDVSA 2016 and the PDVSA 2021. (Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=45116&idc=2)

 

 

Politics and International Affairs

 

US again rejects Maduro accusations, Senator Rubio calls him a "corrupt clown"

US State Department spokesman John Kirby has said new charges by President Nicolás Maduro are false. Maduro has claimed an alleged opposition member was involved in murdering a women and pointed to a plot that would involve US legislators and a former US diplomatic official. We have seen press reports and the video of this criminal who made the charges and we say it is another baseless accusation against US officials", he said. US Senator Marco Rubio said Venezuela's President is a "corrupt clown", and added "Maduro once said Chavez visited him reincarnated as a bird, and it sounds as if he is having a similar episode". More in Spanish: (El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/)

 

Venezuela claims Guyana has "hidden agenda"

Foreign Minister Delcy Rodríguez is warning Caribbean countries of an alleged attempt by the Guyanese government to create conflict among Latin American and Caribbean countries with the support of foreign agents. Rodríguez is on a tour of the Caribbean started last week along with Venezuelan Vice-President Jorge Arreaza, to lobby for the "peace diplomacy" advanced by Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in an effort to recover the Essequibo. She said: "We know Guyana has a hidden agenda which it is not telling the Caribbean about". (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/150819/venezuela-warns-against-guyanas-conflictive-intention; AVN, http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/venezuela-raises-antigua-and-barbuda-banner-peace-diplomacy-defense-essequibo, and more in Spanish: El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/)

 

Political parties fine-tune details 

It’s only 80 days away from the parliamentary elections on December 6, and all political actors in Venezuela are fine-tuning the details for a vital election day that will help set the direction of the country. On the one hand, there are parties that remain committed to democracy all the way, as is the case of the Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD). The MUD, although suffering the full burden of illegal acts and arbitrariness by Venezuela’s ruling elite over the past 15 years, is drawing the constitutional path it will take from here until December 6, with the belief it has an advantage of 20% in popular support over the ruling party, the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV). (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2394705&CategoryId=10717)

 

Venezuelan opposition legislators seek support of MERCOSUR parliament

A delegation of Venezuela's opposition umbrella group United Democratic Round Table (MUD) legislators have presented their PARLASUR counterparts (Parliament of the Common Market of the South -MERCOSUR), with a copy of the draft bill for amnesty and political reconciliation in Venezuela proposed by the coalition, and are requesting their support. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/150818/venezuelan-opposition-seeks-support-from-mercosur-parliament)

 

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.

Friday, February 7, 2014

February 07, 2014

Economics & Finance
Central Bank cancels U.S. dollar auction, Maduro says next round will double amount to be offered
Venezuela's Central Bank said on Tuesday it had canceled this week's auction of U$D 220 million in U.S. currency after discovering anomalies among requests filed by private companies wanting to take part. The bank did not disclose what irregularities had taken place, but said in a statement it canceled the auction due to "a combination of anomalies and lack of compliance with the rules." In a later speech, President Nicolás Maduro promised there will be another auction called next Monday, this time for U$D 440 million, which is double the amount programmed in the cancelled event. (Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-05/venezuela-s-central-bank-cancels-dollar-auction.htmlReuters: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/05/venezuela-currency-auction-idUSL2N0LA02R20140205; http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/05/venezuela-currency-auction-idUSL2N0LA02R20140205; and more in Spanish: AVN; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/pr%C3%B3xima-subasta-del-sicad-ser%C3%A1-440-millones-d%C3%B3lares; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/ejecutivo-liquid%C3%B3-1300000-d%C3%B3lares-enero-para-importaciones-sectores-prioritarios; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/pr%C3%B3xima-subasta-del-sicad-ser%C3%A1-440-millones-d%C3%B3lares; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/140207/subastas-del-sicad-se-activan-el-lunes-con-oferta-de-440-millones; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/140207/subastas-del-sicad-se-activan-el-lunes-con-oferta-de-440-millones: El Mundo, http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/economia/politicas-publicas/-1-300-millones-se-cancelaron-a-sectores-productiv.aspx)

Only U$D 90 million sold by FOREX Board so far this year, as reserves rise by U$D 776 million
Sales of US dollars by the Ancillary Foreign Currency Administration System (SICAD) to the private sector stand at U$D 90 million so far this year, that is, U$D 3.2 million per day on average. While the allocation of US dollars has dropped, the country's international reserves have increased by U$D 776 million to U$D 21.23 billion. (El Universal, 02-06-2014; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/140206/usd-90-million-sold-by-venezuelas-forex-board-so-far-this-year)

Private sector is paralyzed due to uncertain FOREX policy
The private sector, which is two thirds of GDP is paralyzed due to clear official guidelines on how to import supplies needed to maintain production. A month has passed and companies do not yet know which companies will be able to import at the VEB 6.3 rate, and which must enter SICAD auctions where the rate is between VEB 11-12/U$D. Stephen Robb, Finance Director at CLOROX, says the companies is losing money in Venezuela due to price controls and because of uncertainty as to "what will happen with currency?". More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/140207/indefinicion-cambiaria-paraliza-al-sector-privado-de-la-economia)

Performance bond now mandatory for FOREX requests
The National Center for Foreign Trade (CENCOEX) has now published a "performance bond for exchange operations in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela." The bond requires business to produce a performance bond "for 100% of the total amount of the import in US dollars." (El Universal, 02-06-2014; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/140206/performance-bond-made-official-for-forex-application-in-venezuela; and more in Spanish: AVN; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/cencoex-publica-modelo-contrato-fiel-cumplimiento-para-operaciones-cambiarias; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/140207/empresas-deberan-depositar-fianza-para-solicitar-divisas)

Venezuela's economy on the brink of recession
Cuts in foreign currency sales to the private sector for importing commodities, supplies, and finished products are pushing Venezuela's economy into recession. The economy has already slowed down, as growth declined from 5.6% in 2012 to 1.6% in 2013, and negative growth could be recorded in the first quarter. The automotive industry reported production at only 296 units in January, down 84% from January 2013. Similarly, businesses' stocks are falling, retailers have little to sell, and airlines are offering fewer flights. (El Universal, 02-06-2014; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/140206/venezuelas-economy-on-the-brink-of-recession)

Fitch: Performance Deterioration Expected for Venezuelan Banks in 2014
Some performance deterioration in 2014 is expected for Venezuelan banks due to severe macroeconomic imbalances, which will contribute to operating environment risks, according to a Fitch Ratings report. 'A seasoning of credit portfolios, following high nominal loan growth that has exceeded more than 40% on average over the past three years could also result in a deterioration of Venezuelan banks' credit metrics,' said Theresa Paiz Fredel, Senior Director, Financial Institutions. 'Further government regulations and intervention could create additional challenges.' Nevertheless, absent a material increase in government intervention or a severe macroeconomic adjustment, bank financial metrics should remain well within the norm of similarly rated peers. Venezuelan banks have a large, negative mismatch between short-term assets and liabilities, while funding greater than one year is limited. However, this position is manageable under Venezuela's current scheme of foreign exchange controls. (Reuters, 02-06-2014; http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/06/fitch-performance-deterioration-expected-idUSFit68769320140206)

Risk perception grows as Venezuela's bonds hit new low
As investors see Nicolás Maduro's government fails to take effective actions to prevent the economy from slowing down, the risk perception of Venezuela's bonds increases. Both sovereign and oil giant Pdvsa's bonds maturing in 2027 and 2022 have dropped 1.44 and 1.55 points, respectively. Investment funds are requiring higher yields to keep Venezuelan bonds in their portfolios - and the insurance premium to cover any defaults by the Venezuelan state soared 33% in January, according to investment firm Kapital. (El Universal, 02-06-2014; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/140206/risk-perception-grows-as-venezuelas-bonds-hit-new-low)

Oil & Energy
Venezuelans fume as government signals end to 'free' petrol
In the Socialist state that is home to the world’s largest oil and gas reserves, petrol is cheaper than water. But not for much longer. As global oil prices slump, President Nicolas Maduro has horrified Venezuelans by becoming the first politician in a decade to broach a rise in petrol prices. Keen to play down the country’s economic difficulties, Maduro insists that the government does not need the extra income, but says “it seems reasonable that production costs should be covered”. In December, Rafael Ramírez, the chairman of PDVSA and vice-president for economic affairs, said that a break-even cost of petrol would be between 2.4 and 2.7 Bolivars per liter, at least 34 times the current price. “We have to have a national discussion about whether or not the moment has arrived to charge for petrol,” he said. “In this country you don’t pay for petrol, because PDVSA pays for you to fill up with petrol". (The Daily Telegraph, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/10617632/Venezuelans-fume-as-government-signals-end-to-free-petrol.html)

Commodities
Glass containers: 20 day stock remaining
Francisco Anselmi, President of the Glass and Ceramics Industry Association says the industry's inventories of glass containers for food and medicine are down to 20 days.  He says companies are at 60% capacity due to lack of supplies, and adds that purveyors will not dispatch additional supplies until past due obligations are paid for. More in Spanish: (El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/)

GENERAL MOTORS sees "no resolution" for operations in Venezuela
General Motors CFO Chuck Stevens says "we see no resolution to business operations in Venezuela on the horizon". He added that their results in South America for the 1Q 2013 will be "weaker, mainly because of lower production in Venezuela". More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/140207/general-motors-no-ve-resolucion-a-sus-operaciones-en-el-pais; Ultimas Noticias, http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/actualidad/economia/gm-dice-no-ver-horizonte-a-sus-negocios-en-venezue.aspx)

2013 was the worst year ever for the country’s basic industries, which produced only at 25%- 30% capacity, says Deputy Andrés Velásquez. He also charged funds from MINERVEN were used for reelection campaign of Bolívar state Governor General Francisco Rangel Gómez. (Veneconomy, 02-06-2014; http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=37968&idc=3)

International Trade
Trade with the US dropped 10,9% in 2013
Data from the Venezuelan American Chamber (VENAMCHAM) shows bilateral US-Venezuela trade was U$D 18.777 billion, which is 10.99% less than in 2012. Non-petroleum related exports were a mere 3.5% of the total amount. More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/140207/intercambio-comercial-con-eeuu-cayo-109-en-2013)

Venezuela, Colombia to create joint plan to fight border smuggling
Venezuela and Colombia will draft an operational plan against border smuggling, says Venezuela's foreign minister Elias Jaua, speaking after a meeting with his Colombian counterpart Maria Angela Holguin, in Maracaibo, in the border state of Zulia. (AVN, 02-06-2014; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/venezuela-colombia-create-plan-fight-border-smuggling; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/140206/venezuela-colombia-foreign-ministers-ponder-actions-against-smuggling)

Logistics & Transport
Imports at Puerto Cabello could drop 32-36% this year
Sources within the Puerto Cabello port system believe imports there could drop 32%-36% due to stored cargo penalties that are unsustainable for the private sector. They say 60% of unclaimed cargo is government imports, and that half of the 12,543 unclaimed containers nationwide are in Puerto Cabello. More in Spanish: (El Nacional: http://www.el-nacional.com/)

Government seeks to streamline cargo handling, VENAVEGA to transport for government agencies
The government has issued a new resolution aimed at establishing a simplified procedure for imports, indicating that government entities can only request "strictly necessary" paperwork. The private sector has charged that importers face delays that start as soon as vessels arrive at port until the time cargo is delivered to them due to a lack of coordination among official agencies. General Hebert García Plaza, Minister for Aquatic and Air Transport, has charged that companies leave cargo unclaimed at port because "we have here a boycott and destabilization of the economy". A new resolution also designated the state owned Venezuelan Navigation Corporation (VENAVEGA) as the "principal means of maritime cargo transport" for all agencies and corporations in the public sector. Over the past few years the volume of imported food has turned the government into one of the main clients of several private shipping lines, but relations have tensed as state companies delay returning containers and companies such as PDVSA pile up debts with carriers. More in Spanish: (El Universal; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/140207/ejecutivo-busca-simplificar-nacionalizacion-de-cargas; El Carabobeño, http://www.el-carabobeno.com/impreso/articulo/93319/-nacionalizacin-de-mercanca-debe-ejecutarse-en-cinco-das-hbiles; and AVN; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/corporaci%C3%B3n-venavega-responsable-del-transporte-carga-mar%C3%ADtima-estatal)

Cost dispute halts work on Panama Canal expansion
The project to expand the Panama Canal is in doubt after talks between the canal administrator and a Spanish-led building consortium fell apart and work ground to a halt. Group United for the Canal, a consortium led by Spanish builder SACYR, says the government's canal authority had broken off talks on who will pay some U$D 1.6 billion needed to complete the ambitious project. The Panama Canal Authority's head, Jorge Quijano, says the canal has held general talks with other companies about work still pending on the expansion, but was open to more talks with the consortium. He said the canal authority has demanded that the consortium resume work on the expansion. Quijano told a news conference the consortium had been "inflexible" and that the project would be completed in 2015 "with or without" it. He said talks had been complicated because another consortium member, Italy's SALINI IMPREGILO, had taken over the lead from SACYR. He said the canal was evaluating its next steps, but a deal was still possible. (Reuters)

Politics
Maduro threatens main business organizations after FEDECAMARAS announces suit over Fair Prices Law
President Nicolás Maduro warned the nation's main business organizations that their final day will come. He said 2014 will bring economic growth despite "traps" by Venezuela's principal business organizations. During a Cabinet meeting he said the top business group, FEDECÁMARAS, the National Trade Council (CONSECOMERCIO) and the Venezuelan-American Chamber (VENAMCHAM) have planned to destroy the nation's economy in order to overthrow his government. He called them "the trilogy of evil" and threatened that "their final hour will come". This week FEDECÁMARAS President Jorge Roig announced the group will bring suit to nullify the new Law on Fair Prices, which declares all business of public interest. More in Spanish: (Infolatam)

Opposition rift over street protests
Opposition standard bearer Henrique Capriles, who is also governor of Miranda state, distanced himself from the group of opposition leaders who have called for street action to debate the end of the Maduro regime, and said he does not support violent solutions or coups d' etat. He said that sector of the opposition "have no proposals...there is nothing", and pointed to his own focus on social issues. Street activity was called by Leopoldo Lopez, President of Voluntad Popular Party, and Maria Corina Machado, a legislator in the National Assembly. They were joined in a rally last Sunday by Metropolitan Caracas Mayor Antonio Ledezma. Capriles complained that despite Maduro's call for dialogue and joint efforts against crime, he has "again resorted to insults". He asked Maduro to "start working, you have destroyed the country". More in Spanish: (Infolatam)


The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.

Friday, November 22, 2013

November 22, 2013

Economics & Finance

Ghost of Chavez can't stop hyperinflation
Economist Steve Hanke believes Venezuela is sliding into a hyperinflation episode: "For years, Venezuela has sustained a massive social spending program, combined with costly price and labor controls, as well as an aggressive annual foreign aid strategy. This fiscal house of cards has been kept afloat -- barely -- by oil revenues. "But as the price tag of the Chavez/Maduro regime has grown, the country has dipped more and more into the coffers of its state-owned oil company, PDVSA, and (increasingly) the country’s central bank. "Since Chavez’s death, this house of cards has begun to collapse, and the black market exchange rate between the Bolivar (VEF) and the U.S. dollar (USD) tells the tale. Since Chavez’s death on March 5, 2013, the Bolivar has lost 62.36% of its value on the black market ... "This, in turn has brought about very high inflation in Venezuela. The government has responded by imposing ever tougher price controls to suppress the inflation. But those policies have failed, resulting in shortages of critical goods, such as toilet paper, without addressing the root cause of Venezuela’s inflation woes." The country's official inflation rate is about 50% a year. Steven Hanke puts the actual inflation rate at more like 280% a year. (Bloomberg, 11-20-2013; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-20/ghost-of-chavez-can-t-stop-hyperinflation.html)


Excessive liquidity is fueling inflation
In an attempt to rein in the constant increase of circulating Bolivars, the Central Bank increased the ratio of deposits financial institutions most hold in reserve from 17 to 19%, but the currency flood is such that this step has had virtually no impact. In October banks were holding on to some 74.5 billion Bolivars as mandatory reserves, and by November 20th the amount had risen 30% to 96.8 billion Bolivars. More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/131122/exceso-de-liquidez-amenaza-con-acelerar-la-inflacion)

CAPITAL ECONOMICS sees default risk
CAPITAL ECONOMICS is skeptical over the government's mid-term ability to meet its foreign debt. "Default is a clear risk, particularly if oil prices continue to drop". The firm says the fact that PDVSA has returned to the market with a new PDVSA 2026 bond for U$D 4.5 billion, along with the decision by the National Assembly to enact the Enabling Law for the coming 12 months clearly indicate the government is reacting to high inflation. "With upcoming December 8th municipal elections turning into a measure of the government's popularity, President Nicolás Maduro has been taking ever more radical steps to meet inflation". More in Spanish: (El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/)

Declining gold prices hit Venezuela's international reserves
The average price of gold has tumbled by 21%, from U$D 1,671 per ounce in January to U$D 1,314 in October. On November 20, the ounce of gold hit U$D 1,242. Analysts believe that in order to boost Central Bank liquid reserves it will have to sell a part of the country's gold; yet falling prices make this operation complicated. (El Universal, 11-21-2013; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/131121/declining-gold-price-hits-venezuelas-international-reserves)

Economic reform seen as more unlikely
Investment banks see uncertainty over Venezuela is increasing, reform becoming more difficult, and foresee high inflation along with more acute fiscal imbalance. A UBS report says President Nicolás Maduro is in a difficult position to launch basic reforms given his drop in popularity and increasing social tensions. It says devaluation may be postponed in the coming months, and considers "exchange flexibility is the key, but the government seems to be going in the opposite direction by increasing public sector imports and further tightening the private sector's access". More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/131122/creen-que-reformas-economicas-en-el-pais-se-dificultan)


Oil & Energy

A SPECIAL REPORT by SUBEAESHI: "Losing an oil market"
Is attached to this edition given the importance of oil production and sales to Venezuela's economy. (See attachment).

Government generates 97% of Venezuela's FOREX
Currency Board (CADIVI) President José Khan says the public sector generates 96% of all FOREX for the country, mainly through exporting oil and its derivates, plus basic industries. He says the private sector generates the remaining 3% through exports. More in Spanish: (Agencia Venezolana de Noticias; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/sector-p%C3%BAblico-produce-97-divisas-pa%C3%ADs; Notitarde, http://www.notitarde.com/Economia/Sector-publico-produce-97-de-las-divisas-en-el-pais/2013/11/21/283054)

A Special Economic Zone to be created for the Orinoco oil belt
Oil and Mining Minister Rafael Ramírez says three new oil related laws will be established under the newly granted special powers. This includes a special law to regulate the Orinoco oil belt, in order to increase operations and develop new projects, such as 2 refineries, 282 drills, 2750 kilometers of pipelines, and activating 10,800 wells. He says a National Industrial Oil Conglomerate will expand participation by the productive sector. More in Spanish: (PDVSA, http://www.pdvsa.com/; El Mundo, http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/petroleo/pdvsa/promulgaran-leyes-sobre-crudo-en-el-marco-de-la-ha.aspx; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/131122/crearan-zona-economica-en-la-faja-del-orinoco-via-habilitante)

ROSNEFT to invest U$D 65 billion in the Orinoco oil belt
Igor Sechin, President of Russia's state owned ROSNEFT says the company will invest U$D 65 billion into the Orinoco oil belt over the next years, and adds that "this is the most important investment project we have for the future." He said cooperation between Venezuela and Russia is an alliance between two global oil giants. Joint projects include the development of PETROMIRANDA and PETROVICTORIA, the creation of an oil services joint venture, for engineering and construction, the development of the Mariscal Sucre projects, among others. More in Spanish:  (PDVSA, http://www.pdvsa.com/; El Mundo, http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/petroleo/pdvsa/rosneft-acompanara-a-venezuela-con--65-000-millone.aspx; La Información, http://noticias.lainformacion.com/economia-negocios-y-finanzas/petroleo-y-gases-secundarios/petrolera-rusa-rosfneft-invertira-65-000-millones-de-dolares-en-venezuela_lsyUZ05h3kcwb9DZrdn7y2/; Notitarde, http://www.notitarde.com/Economia/Petrolera-rusa-preve-millonaria-inversion-en-faja-del-rio-Orinoco/2013/11/21/283146)

Harvest Natural says PLUSPETROL revises proposal for Venezuela interests
Harvest Natural Resources Inc, announces revised proposal from PLUSPETROL for company's interests in Venezuela; termination of negotiations with VITOL. Says co and PLUSPETROL agreed to enter into two independent transactions. Negotiations toward definitive deal with VITOL S.A. for sale of 66.667% interest in Dussafu marine permit psc terminated. (Reuters, 11-19-2013; http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/20/harvestnaturalresources-brief-idUSWNBB035GK20131120)


Commodities

Cell phone shortage worsens
State company TELECOM Venezuela was created to rein in "speculation" by centralizing imports, but it has not been efficient and scarcity continues to intensify. Cell phones have disappeared from stores because TELECOM Venezuela has a long standing U$D 500 million debt with suppliers which means key operators such as DIGITEL, MOVILNET and MOVISTAR may not be able to meet increased demand during the upcoming Christmas season. TELECOM Venezuela limits the number of units entering the country, decides what models can be imported, and restricts operators from importing other models. In addition, it demands payment in advance on units required by operators, with a special surcharge for "social investment", plus other charges which raise the cost to the public, and then has not paid suppliers abroad. As a consequence, none of the operators, including state-owned MOVILNET, have units available and it is likely they will not have any until next year. More in Spanish: (Tal Cual: http://www.talcualdigital.com/Nota/visor.aspx?id=95338&sec=44&colum=156)

Venezuela signs joint ventures with SAMSUNG, MABE
The government has allied with SAMSUNG to jointly produce consumer electronics and appliances. Rafael Ramirez, vice president for the economy, signed the agreement with the South Korean company's regional president, Hyun Chil Hong. SAMSUNG will initially invest U$D 50 million in a factory for the joint production and Venezuela will take a controlling interest, Ramirez said. Its location, output and start date won't be announced for at least a month. In the meantime, the government will directly import 400,000 SAMSUNG major home appliances and other electronics worth about U$D 100 million to arrive in "the coming days" from SAMSUNG plants in Brazil, Mexico and Argentina. Venezuela has signed a similar agreement earlier this month with Mexican appliance maker MABE to produce and sell stoves, refrigerators and other durable goods at "fair prices" well below what Venezuelans have grown accustomed to amid soaring inflation. (ABC News: http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/venezuela-inks-joint-venture-samsung-20954071; Veneconomy, 11-21-2013; http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=37242&idc=3; Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/20/us-venezuela-samsung-idUSBRE9AJ14A20131120; Fox News, http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/11/20/venezuela-signs-joint-venture-with-samsung-as-state-deepens-its-control-economy/)

Venezuela fines GENERAL MOTORS over spare parts' prices
The government has fined the local subsidiary of General Motors nearly U$D 85,000 for allegedly selling spare parts at exorbitant prices. The measure came as part of an aggressive drive by President Nicolas Maduro's government to tackle the country's high inflation rate by forcing businesses to lower prices. Speaking from the GM subsidiary's assembly plant in central Carabobo state, Industry Minister Ricardo Menendez accused it of selling spare parts at up to 500% more than cost. "Obviously this is a case of usury," he said. (The Chicago Tribune: http://www.chicagotribune.com/classified/automotive/sns-rt-us-venezuela-generalmotors-20131119,0,5104863.story

Dairy product distribution is diminishing
A 50% drop in production at companies such as PARMALAT, NESTLÉ and LACTEOS LOS ANDES is leading them to reduce distribution to market outlets and cut employment. The National Association of Food Distributors has called for state of emergency for government to urgently approve FOREX for packing material, fruit pulp and concentrates necessary for production. More in Spanish: (El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/)


International Trade

Government to control all foreign trade
President Nicolas Maduro exercised new emergency powers for the first time Thursday, signing decrees limiting business profit margins and tightening regulation of imports. The two new laws aim to control prices and profits in the business sector and closely monitor imports and exports and hard currency that come in from oil sales, Venezuela's main source of revenue. Maduro says the law on foreign trade is designed to control "all that is imported and all that is exported", and adds that all businessmen who request FOREX for imports must register with the government - and those accused of "stealing" or "misusing" FOREX will not be allowed to register. The Currency Board (CADIVI), charged with delivering 95% of FOREX to business since 2003, will now come under the direct orders of a National Foreign Trade Center. He said the Foreign Trade Corporation will take care of imports by "powerful State-owned companies" and that registered private companies can take part "when advise is needed" on "vital matters", such as medical imports. (Yahoo News: http://news.yahoo.com/venezuelan-president-tries-emergency-powers-071959194.html; and more in Spanish: Infolatam)

Importers will have to declare US dollar origin
Venezuela's Currency Board (CADIVI) is now requiring importers bringing in goods below U$D 50,000 to report on the way they purchased US dollars to bring goods into the country. (El Universal, 11-20-2013; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/131120/importers-in-venezuela-will-have-to-declare-us-dollar-origin)

Public sector share of imports will be 48%
Economist Asdrúbal Oliveros, of the ECOANALITICA economic research firm, estimates that nearly 48% of Venezuela's imports will be carried out by the public sector, in an economic model in which the State keeps gaining ground as importer. He further says the government aims at centralizing imports of auto spare parts and appliances. (El Universal, 11-20-2013; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/131120/expert-imports-by-the-public-sector-will-total-48)

Foreign suppliers come calling to collect
Venezuelan businessmen in different areas have been receiving increasing visits from their foreign suppliers concerned about collecting outstanding debts. A business source who asked not to be identified says: "We meet with them, we explain the situation and we try to convince them that we will honor our debts." In some cases the merchandise has been delivered and is not yet paid for, others are products on their way to Venezuela, and in other cases there are products pending for dispatch. More in Spanish: (El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/)
        
Government allies received most FOREX

An investigation by Últimas Noticias daily newspaper shows State companies and companies with ties with the regime received the most dollars from CADIVI in its nine years in operation. For instance, DAKA received more dollars (ranking 59th) than Alimentos Polar, Glaxosmithkline pharmaceutical lab, Coca Cola, Grupo Souto (breeding and distribution of poultry, among others), Plumrose, Agroisleña and Johnson & Johnson Venezuela. (Veneconomy, 11-21-2013; http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=37241&idc=2)

Politics

Maduro gets power to rule by decree
Venezuela's congress has granted President Nicolas Maduro emergency decree powers that will strengthen his hand as he goes after businesses the government accuses of sabotaging the economy. The same device was employed four times by Maduro's predecessor, the late Hugo Chávez, to promulgate dozens of laws that dramatically boosted state control over the economy. Unlike the charismatic Chávez, who had near-absolute command over his party, doubts about Maduro's leadership have risen since he defeated opposition leader Henrique Capriles by a razor-thin margin in April's presidential election and as worsening shortages of basic goods and galloping inflation, now at 54%, have eroded popular support for his rule. Addressing a crowd smaller than the ones Chávez was accustomed to drawing, Maduro reiterated a pledge to use his expanded powers to keep prices low across industries and limit profit margins to 30%. He also vowed to start 2014 with a frontal attack on corruption. "They underestimated me; they said Maduro was an amateur," he told the crowd. But "what you've seen is little compared to what we're going to do". Opposition leader Henrique Capriles replied in a Twitter message: "I'll give it to you really straight so it registers," ... after the December elections "we're going after you and your disastrous government, constitution in hand". (The Guardian; http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/20/maduro-power-rule-by-decree)

Fire sale TVs and Chavez-style theatrics heat up Venezuela vote
President Nicolas Maduro is firing up supporters for the upcoming mayors' election through a theatrical confrontation with businesses that has showered voters with cheap consumer goods, echoing the style of late Hugo Chavez. The Dec. 8 vote for control of 335 municipalities, ranging from urban hillside slums to isolated villages in sweltering plains, will be the first major test of Maduro's strength after he narrowly won the presidency in April. Venezuelans are flooding shops to snatch up discounted car parts, televisions and clothes since Maduro ordered businesses to slash prices in a gambit similar to the oil-financed pre-election largesse of the Chavez era, but with private merchants footing the bill. (Reuters, 11-21-2013; http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/21/venezuela-election-idUSL2N0IX1QL20131121)

Capriles calls on Venezuelans to demonstrate against economic chaos
Opposition leader Henrique Capriles and the Democratic Unity Conference (MUD) have called on Venezuelans to march this Saturday in a protest against Nicolas Maduro's regime and the crisis he says is caused by the government, a crisis reflected in scarcities, inflation and lack of personal safety. Capriles said: "I call upon all Venezuelans suffering this crisis, upon all those who feel the government wants to destroy the nation, to protest in all 355 municipalities around Venezuela this Saturday". He said these demonstrations require no permits as they will take place within the upcoming election campaign. More in Spanish: (INFOLATAM)

Internet coming under censorship
The government's telecom regulatory agency CONATEL is trying to criminalize some web pages, forcing them to restrict content it considers inconvenient. It has taken steps to remove concessions and licenses from carriers, and has taken down sites that provide information on foreign exchange rates on the parallel market. The trend seems to be moving toward taking down any number of sites they believe upset "public tranquility" by providing information on scarcities and others. The regime might, by law, force carriers into becoming digital wardens over content on the web. The move seems destined to fail because many sites are based outside Venezuela and can continue creating new ways to get around restrictions, unless the government decides to block internet in the entire nation. More in Spanish: (Tal Cual: http://www.talcualdigital.com/Nota/visor.aspx?id=95000&tipo=COL&idcolum=156)


The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.