October 26th, 2012

Economics & Finance

Venezuela cut gold holdings by 3.7 metric tons in August; more gold sales expected in December

Venezuela cut its gold holdings by 3.733 tons in August, data from the International Monetary Fund showed on Thursday, while Brazil added just under two tons of bullion to its reserves the following month. UBS expects tjhe nation will sell more gold in December, and says in a report that "Venezuela is a net seller of gold, 119000 ounces were sold in July and a larger sale is expected in December", (Reuters, 10-25-2012; http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/25/us-gold-central-banks-idUSBRE89O10L20121025; El Universal; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/121025/imf-confirms-gold-sales-made-by-venezuelas-central-bank-in-august; and more in Spanish: El Universal; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/121026/afirman-que-venezuela-preve-vender-mas-oro-en-diciembre)

2013 indebtedness estimated at U$D 27.1 billion

Planning and Finance Minister Jorge Giordani presented the National Assembly with both a draft Indebtedness Law and a draft Budget Law for fiscal year 2013, both of which aim at "furthering the transition towards the socialist productive model." Expenditure for next year was estimated at U$D 92.1 billion, while indebtedness was calculated at U$D 27.1 billion. Such estimates are based on "prudent and rational" macroeconomic premises, according to Giordani. The oil average price was calculated at U$D 55 per barrel; inflation at 14-16%; and economic growth at 6% of GDP. The foreign exchange rate will remain unchanged at VEB 4.30 per US dollar, the minister explained. (El Universal, 10-24-2012; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/121024/venezuelas-indebtedness-estimated-at-usd-271-billion-in-2013)

An estimated 50% exchange adjustment is envisioned for 2013, according to Barclays and ECOANALÍTICA. Both firms anticipate a devaluation of at least 46% during the first quarter 2013. José Luis Saboin, Senior Economist with ECOANALÍTICA says "there is a fiscal deficit that is 15% of GDP, which is around U$D 40 billion, around half of oil income" He says an enlarged government role, along with patronage lead to spending more than comes in, we are referring to the "missions" and the housing programs". More in Spanish: (El Universal, 10-26-2012; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/121026/pronostican-ajuste-cambiario-cercano-a-50-para-2013)

Over VEB 3.13 billion to keep prices down

The proposed 2013 fiscal budget, the resources allocated to the Ministry of Food 10% increase, from VEB 4.05 billion in 2012 to VEB 4.45 billion. More in Spanish: (El Nacional, 10-25-2012; http://www.el-nacional.com/)

Venezuela among nations placing most obstacles on investment

Venezuela is among the countries that place the most obstacles for opening a business, according to a study prepared by the World Bank entitled "Doing Business 2013." The survey measured indicators concerning the businesses environment. Venezuela ranks 180 out of 185 countries, just ahead of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea, the Republic of Congo, Chad, and the Central African Republic. Venezuela ranked 179 in 2011. The study measured several indicators, namely: starting a business, dealing with construction permits, getting electricity, registering property, getting credit, protecting investors, paying taxes, and trading across borders. (El Universal, 10-24-2012; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/121024/venezuela-among-the-countries-with-more-obstacles-to-investments)

Banks’ non-performing loans stood at 1.08% at the close of September, down 0.8 percentage points over the past 12 months, announced the Banking Superintendent's office SUDEBAN. It pointed out that since 1994 (the year of the banking crisis), the sector’s non-performing loans have been diminishing, going from 20% at the end of that year to 1.4% at the end of 2011. (Veneconomy, 10-24-2012; http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=32515&idc=2)

Dividend repatriation backlog reported; companies expect exchange rate adjustment

According to a yearly poll by the Venezuelan American Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VenAmCham) 80% out of 238 respondents expect an exchange rate adjustment. 62% of those polled say they are enrolled with the Exchange Board (CADIVI) and 70% say they operate within international markets. Companies polled reported backed up dividend repatriation applications, on the order of U$$ 8 to 9 billion dollars. More in Spanish: (El Universal, 10-26-2012; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/121026/empresas-aguardan-por-repatriacion-de-dividendos)

Commodities

Curacao wants PDVSA to invest U$D1.5 billion in Isla refinery

Curacao could extend or renegotiate a lease of its Isla refinery to Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA if the latter agrees to invest U$D1.5 billion to upgrade the World War One-era facility, one of the Caribbean island's top politicians said. The 335,000 barrel per day (bpd) Isla refinery, which is crucial to the Dutch island nation's economy, has faced years of complaints from residents and environmental activists over pollution, but PDVSA has been reluctant to invest in it. "It is important to extend PDVSA's contract, but under certain conditions," Helmin Wiels, leader of the Sovereign People party which won the largest block at last week's parliamentary elections, told Reuters on Wednesday. (Reuters, 10-24-2012; http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/24/us-curacao-refinery-idUSBRE89N1GZ20121024)

VENALUM alumina inventory down to 8 days

The drop in alumina production by state CVG BAUXILUM company has lowered delivery of material to state owned aluminum processing companies, ALCASA and VENALUM. VENALUM has inventory available for just 8 days, according to members of the Workers Council, and this could lead to an even greater drop in the company's production levels, which are currently at 30% of capacity. More in Spanish: (El Universal, 10-26-2012; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/121026/venalum-tiene-inventarios-de-alumina-solo-para-8-dias)

International Trade

Colombia-Venezuela border integration on hold

The agenda on Colombia-Venezuela border issues remains on hold after two meetings between both countries' foreign ministers were called off in the past few months. The appointment has been rescheduled for early November 2012. The electricity interconnection between Apure state (southwest Venezuela) and the Arauca department (Colombia), binational security, health and economy, and the construction of the National Border Assistance Center are the pending topics on the agenda, as stated in August by the governor of the Arauca department, José Facundo Castillo Cisneros. (El Universal, 10-25-2012; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/121025/colombia-venezuela-border-integration-put-on-hold)

Logistics & Transport

Expropriated La Guaira port machinery lies idle

After the Government took over the assets of 26 private companies that operated the La Guaira Port Terminal it has yet to pay compensation and machinery remains idle. Port sources report this includes high value equipment from HYSTER, KALMAR and CATERPILLAR, which was used to offload vessels, as well as small pay loaders, trucks, and other equipment used to carry merchandise from the port to warehouses, all remain idle. More in Spanish: (El Nacional, 10-26-2012; http://www.el-nacional.com/)

Politics

In Latin America, incumbents winning and dominating as term limits are increasingly loosened

After four election wins, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is on track to completing at least 20 years in power, and supporters say they’re glad to have him in charge. City streets are still lined with campaign posters emblazoned with the president’s image. In a region where military dictators ruled by force for decades, millions of Latin Americans are backing a new crop of leaders extending their rule and dominating power through the ballot box. (The Washington Post, 10-24-2012; http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/in-latin-america-incumbents-winning-and-dominating-as-term-limits-are-increasingly-loosened/2012/10/24/525e4106-1e01-11e2-8817-41b9a7aaabc7_story.html)



The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.

September 06th, 2011

Economics & Finance

Country risk peaked in August

During August  country risk for Venezuela reached its highest point this year, due to market volatility caused by degradation of US debt from AAA to AA + by Standard and Poor's (S & P). By August 23 the risk Venezuelan risk reached 1,241 points, up from just over 1,000 earlier in the month. A director of ECONOMÉTRICA, Henkel Garcia, says this behavior is due to prospects for slow global growth, or worse, that the world slip into recession. If this happens the demand for commodities such as oil, would fall and in turn bring down prices. More in Spanish: (Tal Cual, 09-05-2011; http://www.talcualdigital.com/index.html)

Industry barely using 51.77% of installed capacity

The industrial sector continues stagnant and is using as little as 52.77% of the installed capacity, according to a survey of the second quarter 2011 prepared by the Venezuelan Confederation of Industries (CONINDUSTRIA).

Despite growth of domestic economy for three consecutive quarters, corporate used capacity remains virtually the same as in the second quarter of 2010, during a recession. At that time, Conindustria data pointed to 52.08% for the installed capacity. "No significant changes are noteworthy with regard to the same term last year," the survey disclosed. (El Universal, 09-03-2011; http://www.eluniversal.com/2011/09/03/industrial-used-capacity-barely-reaches-5177.shtml)

Opposition says 90% of the expropriated land produces nothing “which reflects such an utter failure” says the Opposition Democratic Unity Table (MUD). It explained “much of the land ‘recovered’ by the government has been used to house squatters who had previously taken them arbitrarily.” (Veneconomy, 09-05-2011; http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=27454&idc=3)

Colombians seek to do business with the Venezuelan Government

According to Magdalena Pardo, Executive President of the Colombian-Venezuelan Chamber in Bogotá, affiliated businessmen have expressed interest in direct negotiations with the various ministries of the Venezuelan government. "The government is one of the leading producers and distributors of the Venezuelan economy, and it imports a third of what the country buys. We want to be providers of what the State buys because there are fewer restrictions on this trade," says Pardo. More in Spanish: (El Mundo, 09-05-2011; http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/economia/empresas/colombianos-quieren-hacer-negocios-con-el-gobierno.aspx)

Chavez complains of stolen gold

President Chávez has said that of 23 million tons of gold that left the country last year, only 6 million were reported for taxes. "What is that?" he queried. "Mafia, smuggling, we have to get rid of them." However, in the El Callao region, they point out that all of the malfeasance goes under the government's nose. Workers at the La Isidora mine warn of theft, loss or evaporation of more than 30,000 tons of auriferous material, the raw material of gold. "They were swallowed by the earth," says Edward López. "They steal the half from us and the State," he added. (El Universal, 09-03-2011; http://www.eluniversal.com/2011/09/03/who-stole-my-gold.shtml)

Commodities

Agreements signed with China to boost iron production

Venezuela has signed three cooperation agreements with Chinese companies for a total of U$D 470 million, in order to boost production and transportation of iron at the Ferrominera del Orinoco Socialist Company in Bolivar State.

One agreement was with WISCO International Resources Development s for the purchase of machinery worth U$D 200 million in order to promote the technological adaptation Ferrominera del Orinoco. A second agreement, for U$D 161 million, was with the railway company responsible for the expansion of the Port of Palua; as well as improving the maintenance of rails, chutes and elevators. A third agreement calls for an U$D 161 million investment by the China Communications Construction Company Company (CCC) to dredge the Orinoco River navigation channel in order to improve navigation and improve transportation of iron produced. More in Spanish: (AVN, 09-06-2011; http://www.avn.info.ve/node/75867)

Wikileaks releases Venezuela-China special oil discounts

US diplomatic information, filtered by Wikileaks, reveals further details on the alleged financial and operating activities of Venezuelan state-run oil company PDVSA. A 2007 statement by a senior PDVSA anonymous source and quoted by the US Embassy in Caracas revealed that the Venezuelan oil company stopped shipping oil to China at some point that year due to significant losses arising from special discounts. (El Universal, 09-05-2011; http://www.eluniversal.com/2011/09/05/wikileaks-releases-venezuela-china-special-oil-discounts.shtml)

Ministry says Venezuelan oil breaks U$D 100 barrier

Venezuelan oil basket spiked to U$D 101.89 per barrel and broke the U$D 100 barrier after gaining U$D 4.60 during the week from August 29 to September 2, according to the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum. The Venezuelan oil showed an upward trend during the past week. The average price of the Venezuelan crude oil and byproducts so far this year stands at $SD 99.29 per barrel, well above U$D 40 per barrel estimated by the Venezuelan government in the 2011 official budget. (El Universal, 09-02-2011; http://www.eluniversal.com/2011/09/02/venezuelan-oil-breaks-usd-100-barrier.shtml)

Government has a 5,400,000 ton food storage capacity to guarantee supplies to the population, said Food Minister Carlos Osorio on Friday during his inspection of a pre-cooked corn processing plant in La Veguita in Barinas. (Veneconomy, 09-02-2011; http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=27442&idc=3)

Politics

Venezuela's Chavez finishes third chemo session

President Hugo Chavez ended a third round of chemotherapy on Friday, saying he "couldn't feel better". Chavez had checked into the Military Hospital instead of traveling to Cuba. The decision to stay at home could be a sign he is growing more optimistic about the pace of his recovery before a presidential election next year. Chavez has not said what kind of cancer he has, meaning assessments of his condition, and the possibility of remission, remain mostly speculation. (Reuters, 09-03-2011; http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/03/us-venezuela-chavez-idUSTRE78200920110903)

Chávez admits disregarding the energy issue

President Hugo Chávez has acknowledged that his government was not careful enough to deal with problems in the national electric grid, saying: "We have done all that is possible to solve the problem with the national electric system. The scale of the problem was overwhelming. We have to admit it. It was out of control for reasons we have already explained". (El Universal, 09-06-2011; http://www.eluniversal.com/2011/09/05/chavez-we-disregarded-the-energy-issue.shtml)

Meanwhile, Venezuela donates U$D 22 million for Gambia's power grid

Venezuela has donated U$D 22 million to Gambia in order to finance revamping of its power grid and improve its energy supply service, according to Lang Sabally, the project leader; who adds that the funds should pay for "revamping, overhauling, and extending the power grid in the capital Banjul and its surroundings". The donation will also allow Gambian authorities to install streetlights in some sectors of the capital. (El Universal, 09-06-2011; http://www.eluniversal.com/2011/09/05/venezuela-donates-usd-22-million-for-gambias-power-grid.shtml)

Wikileaks: Venezuelan meddling raised concerns in Curacao

In 2007 Netherlands Antilles Prime Minister Emily de Jongh Elhage, told US chief of Mission Robert Sorenson they were "very concerned about Chavez's actions in Curacao and the region”; because of "suspicions of political financing from Venezuela to oppose a constitutional reform agreement with the Kingdom of the Netherlands”, as negotiations were under way for future investments in the PDVSA owned refinery on the island. More in Spanish: (El Nacional, 09-06-2011; http://www.el-nacional.com/www/site/p_contenido.php)

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.