August 27, 2019

International Trade

Venezuela, Russia sign ports agreement

Warships from Russia and Venezuela can dock at one another’s national ports under an agreement signed earlier this month between Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López and his Russian counterpart, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, in Moscow. The Venezuelan official was in Moscow for nearly a week in mid-August. In a video posted on 15 August on the Twitter account of the Venezuelan military’s press office, Padrino López said bilateral defense ties commenced in 2001 and the new ports agreement will “strengthen these relations.” (Jane’s: https://www.janes.com/article/90647/venezuela-russia-sign-ports-agreement)

 

Venezuela Parliament says military agreement with Russia ‘unconstitutional’

Venezuela's National Assembly controlled by the opposition declared null and void a new agreement with Russia on military cooperation. The declaration was published on Monday. The document concerns "the agreement on military cooperation between the governments of Venezuela and Russia, signed by defense ministers Vladimir Padrino Lopez and Sergey Shoigu." "This agreement was not considered either by a commission on foreign policy, sovereignty and integration or by parliament, which makes it unconstitutional, and this means that it is null and void," the declaration said, calling it unconstitutional. The parliament also said that opening a Venezuelan embassy in North Korea was "a violation of the constitution", TASS reported. On August 15, Shoigu and Lopez signed an agreement on reciprocal visits of military ships at the meeting in Moscow. The defense ministers also discussed the situation in Venezuela and issues of bilateral military cooperation. (TASNIM News Agency: https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2019/08/27/2084075/venezuela-parliament-says-military-agreement-with-russia-unconstitutional)

 

Oil & Energy

China's July Venezuela oil imports fall over U.S. sanctions

China’s crude oil imports from Venezuela plunged 62% in July from the previous month, Chinese customs data showed on Sunday, as growing tension between Washington and the Maduro regime made buyers wary of taking oil from this nation. Arrivals of crude oil from Venezuela were 703,742 tons last month, or 165,720 barrels per day (bpd), data from the General Administration of Customs showed. That is down from 275,646 bpd in June. With U.S. sanctions on Venezuela having already driven away many of its oil buyers, the Trump administration in early August kept up the pressure by threatening sanctions on any company that works with Maduro’s government. Venezuela’s oil exports fell 17.5% in July to their second lowest since Washington imposed the sanctions in January, according to internal data from the company and REFINITIV EIKON. China National Petroleum Corp, a leading buyer of Venezuelan oil, has halted loadings in August amid concerns over potential hits by the secondary sanctions. REFINITIV Oil Research showed only three cargos carrying a total 540,000 tons of crude have left from Venezuela for China so far this month, half of the figure in July. For the first seven months of the year, China’s imports of Venezuela crude oil fell 13.4% on a year earlier to 9.37 million tons, or 322,601 bpd. (Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-trade-crude/chinas-july-venezuela-oil-imports-fall-over-us-sanctions-idUSKCN1VF06N; Lloyd’s List: https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1128939/VenezuelaChina-oil-flows-fail-to-stem-plunging-tanker-demand)

 

Half of Venezuela's oil rigs may disappear if U.S. waivers lapse

A looming U.S. sanctions deadline is threatening to clobber Venezuela’s dwindling oil-rig fleet and hamper energy production in the nation with the world’s largest crude reserves. Almost half the rigs still operating in Venezuela will shut down by Oct. 25 if the Trump administration doesn’t extend a 90-day waiver from its sanctions, according to data compiled from consultancy Caracas Capital Markets. That could further cripple this nation’s production because the structures are needed to drill new wells crucial for even maintaining output, which is already near the lowest level since the 1940s. (Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-22/trump-takes-aim-at-oil-rigs-crucial-to-venezuela-s-energy-future)

 

CITGO profits hit by fallout from split, sees 2H improvement -CEO

The two new top executives at CITGO Petroleum disclosed this week that net income in the second quarter slid to less than half its level a year earlier, hit by a broad slump for the refining industry as well as complications from U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and CITGO’s split with state-run oil company PDVSA. Chief Executive Officer Carlos Jorda and Chairwoman Luisa Palacios on Thursday laid out a plan to rebuild profits, pay down debt and invest in operations after a jarring split this year from parent Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA). But they conceded that their plans could be complicated by U.S. sanctions on Venezuela which have affected relationships with suppliers and partners. One contentious issue is whether CITGO or another PDVSA subsidiary is responsible for a payment of almost US$ 1 billion due to bondholders this fall. Houston-based CITGO, the eighth-largest U.S. refiner, ousted its CEO and other top executives early this year and halted all dealings with PDVSA after Washington levied sanctions on Venezuela intended to force Nicolas Maduro from power. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/citgo-ceo/citgo-profits-hit-by-fallout-from-split-sees-2h-improvement-ceo-idUSL2N25J0LQ)

 

Explosion rocks Venezuela oil plant

An explosion rocked a natural gas-filling plant in the Venezuelan state of Miranda, forcing the evacuation of 6,500 residents, TELESUR reports, adding the Venezuelan government has called the event an act of sabotage. The explosion caused no fatalities with only one worker at the plant reported injured. According to a report in the leftist daily Morning Star, “The attacks were branded ‘terrorism’ by the Maduro regime. This is the latest in a string of accidents that highlight the precarious energy situation in sanction-bound Venezuela. Earlier this year, several blackouts crippled the country, with the government calling them a sabotage as well. The latest blackout, in July, Caracas blamed on an electromagnetic attack. The blackouts hit Venezuela’s oil industry particularly hard, leading to a suspension of operations at crude upgraders and its main oil export terminal. (Oil Price: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Explosion-Rocks-Venezuela-Oil-Plant.html)

 

Economy & Finance

Cold, hard euros: Venezuela turns to European cash after U.S. sanctions

From supermarket checkouts in the capital Caracas to electronics stores in the central city of Maracay, Venezuelans struggling with hyperinflation and a deep economic crisis are turning to a new form of payment: euros in cash. Runaway inflation that has made even large piles of the local bolivar currency worthless - combined with the socialist government’s relaxation of restrictions on the use of foreign currency - has encouraged Venezuelans to turn to dollar bills for everyday transactions in the past year. But in the past four months, euros have also started proliferating in markets and stores here. With the stock of dollars in circulation still far greater than euros, Venezuelan merchants tend to quote items at the same price in the European and U.S. currency - ignoring the euro’s higher value on international markets. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-economy-euros/cold-hard-euros-venezuela-turns-to-european-cash-after-u-s-sanctions-idUSKCN1VD195)

 

Politics and International Affairs

Guaidó vows to shun early election

Venezuela's National Assembly President and interim President Juan Guaidó said Friday that opponents of Nicolás Maduro won't participate in any early legislative elections he calls amid a protracted power struggle. Guaidó said in an interview with The Associated Press that it would be a "farce" to participate in any election with the Maduro regime still in control of the country. The man recognized by the U.S. as Venezuela's rightful leader also said he plans to keep the self-claimed title of "acting president" even after his one-year term as leader of the opposition-controlled National Assembly ends in the new year. "We are very clear that we're going to continue until the point that elections in Venezuela are in reality free," Guaidó said. He contended there are signs Maduro's government is weakening, alleging it is resorting to torturing opponents while growing isolated from its people and the international community. Socialist party chief Diosdado Cabello, a key Maduro ally, has said elections for the National Assembly — the most important opposition-dominated institution in Venezuela — could be held in January or earlier. The legislature's five-year term is set to end in December 2020 and elections are traditionally held in the last month of its term. (AP: https://news.yahoo.com/venezuela-opposition-leader-vows-boycott-164911841.html)

 

The price of removing Nicolas Maduro from office may be amnesty for his deputies, by Eli Lake

No one should take Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro’s words at face value. That applies to his claims last week that his regime is in secret negotiations with “high-ranking” American officials. His comments were almost certainly a gambit to divide the opposition during the on-again, off-again negotiations over new elections being brokered by the Norwegian government. They were a ploy to make the internationally recognized but largely powerless government of interim President Juan Guaidó believe that U.S. President Donald Trump was negotiating behind its back. That said, there is a kernel of truth buried in Maduro’s fiction. Trump also acknowledged talks at “a very high level” last week. U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton has said these contacts are not authorized by Maduro and are aimed at ushering in free elections. So: America is talking to Maduro’s deputies — about how to get rid of Maduro. If the apparatchiks who preach socialism are now looking to protect their fortunes and stay out of jail, that may mean the collapse of the regime is nigh. At the same time, this back and forth highlight just how unsatisfactory the fall of Maduro is likely to be. His ouster will require the cooperation of his enablers — and the price of their cooperation, at a minimum, will be amnesty. Guaidó and his supporters have been keenly aware of this dilemma since January, when most of the Western Hemisphere recognized him as interim president of Venezuela. One of his first acts was to press the National Assembly to pass an amnesty law for civilian and military officials who worked to restore constitutional government. At the time, Human Rights Watch, which has documented much of the Maduro regime’s crimes, criticized the law for being dangerously vague and overbroad. More than eight months into his efforts to oust Maduro, however, some details are coming into focus — namely, the kinds of scoundrels that will evade justice in exchange for turning on Maduro. As one senior U.S. official told me, the U.S. has delivered messages to Maduro’s deputies, often through intermediaries, that they are interested not in vengeance but only in an orderly transition to free and fair elections. (Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-26/ousting-venezuela-s-maduro-may-require-amnesty-for-his-deputies)

 

U.S. sanctions on Venezuela undercut talks, key Maduro ally says

U.S. sanctions against Venezuela are making successful talks with the opposition impossible, said a key ally of Nicolas Maduro, demanding that President Donald Trump immediately act to drop them. "The stone in the way of any negotiation is sanctions," Tarek William Saab, Venezuela’s public prosecutor, said in a rare interview at the Public Prosecutor headquarters office in downtown Caracas. "It is a shot in the foot of any negotiation because how can you negotiate with a gun pointed at your head?" (Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-23/u-s-sanctions-on-venezuela-undercut-talks-key-maduro-ally-says)

 

Argentina poised to abandon Venezuela’s opposition

Election-bound Argentina is poised to withdraw from the vocal bloc of Latin American nations that supports Venezuela's political opposition and recognizes its leader, Juan Guaidó, as the country's interim president. Alberto Fernandez, the leading candidate to replace Argentina's president Mauricio Macri in 27 October elections, is signaling that his administration would not seek to remove Nicolas Maduro. If Fernandez and his unrelated running mate and former president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner win the presidency, Buenos Aires would likely pull out of the Lima Group of Latin American countries and Canada that have been seeking to isolate the Maduro government in favor of a transition administration led by Guaidó. In a 25 August television interview, Alberto Fernandez made it clear that he disagreed with Macri who has long denounced Maduro's government as a dictatorship. "It is very difficult to qualify an elected government as a dictatorship. An elected government can become an authoritarian government," Fernandez said, explicitly challenging the position of the Lima Group, the US and most EU countries, which assert that Maduro was fraudulently re-elected in May 2018. "The institutions are working there, we can then discuss how they work, but formally there is an assembly, there are courts. A dictatorship generally lacks these things," he added in explaining why he does not deem Venezuela to be a dictatorship and prefers to describe Maduro's government as authoritarian. A Fernandez administration would bring Argentina closer in line to the stance of Uruguay and Mexico, which advocate non-intervention in Venezuela and object to extensive US financial and oil sanctions on the country. "I do not agree with all these proposals that line up Latin America behind (US president Donald) Trump and I value the proposal that was made by (Mexican president Manuel) Lopez Obrador and (Uruguayan president) Tabare Vazquez and I think I would add myself to those two to try to help find a solution for Venezuela," Fernandez said in the television interview. (Argus: https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/1965727-argentina-poised-to-abandon-venezuelas-opposition?backToResults=true)

 

Maduro looks to North Korea for support – opens first embassy in Pyongyang

The deterioration of Venezuela’s relations with the Western world, imposition of harsh Western economic sanctions and open calls for regime change by the United States and many of its allies have led Caracas to strengthen ties with several Western adversaries since 2017. The country’s ties with Russia and China have been highly prolific, but a quieter but less conspicuous partnership which has been built has been that between Venezuela and North Korea. In December 2018 North Korean Presidium President and Head of State Kim Yong Nam paid a state visit to Caracas, and it was widely speculated that defense and economic cooperation was under discussion. North Korea opened an embassy in Caracas four years prior. Furthering a trend towards greater cooperation, on August 21^st, 2019, the Maduro regime opened its first embassy in Pyongyang which was attended by the deputy foreign ministers of both states. Maduro’s Deputy Foreign Minister Ruben Dario Molina stated at the event: “the people and leaders of Venezuela and the North Korea have become a target for attacks and threats by North American imperialism, which seeks to put us on their knees because of our implacable ideology and the desire to achieve economic and social progress.” His Korean counterpart Pak Myung Guk stated: “the government of the DPRK (North Korea) is constantly in its desire to expand and develop a relationship of friendship and cooperation with Venezuela, which are being placed in the flame of the general anti-imperialist struggle for independence and socialism.” (Check Point Asia Net: https://www.checkpointasia.net/venezuela-looks-to-north-korea-for-support-opens-first-embassy-in-pyongyang/)

 

Venezuelans stranded as Ecuador imposes new visa rules

Ecuador on Monday joined Peru and Chile in restricting Venezuelan immigration. To enter the country, Venezuelans now need to provide a criminal record, apply for a visa before arrival and present a valid passport. As the deadline neared, many Venezuelans in Ecuador rushed home to retrieve family members. Thousands more rushed east from their homes in Venezuela, eager to start a life in Ecuador that would soon be much harder to achieve. The last-minute wave sowed chaos for immigration officials on both sides of the Ecuador-Colombia border. Migrants waited hours in bitterly cold temperatures as they navigated immigration processes. Temperatures dropped to six degrees Celsius and many slept huddled together in blankets as they queued, in some cases overnight. Colombian migration officials did not know the exact number of Venezuelans who crossed before the border closed on Sunday, but a director at the Rumichaca office told Al Jazeera that more than 11,000 Venezuelans had crossed as of 6pm, well before the midnight deadline. According to Colombian immigration officials on the Venezuelan border in Cucuta, there are still more on the way. The chaos was not limited just to Colombia as masses of migrants huddled in Ecuador as well, waiting to be processed. Passports can cost several months’ salary for most Venezuelans, though many migrants told Al Jazeera the actual price is much higher when one factors in necessary bribes of US$ 100 to US$300. In a country where the monthly minimum wages has fallen to below US$ 5, that is beyond the reach of most Venezuelans. (Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/08/venezuelans-stranded-ecuador-imposes-visa-rules-190826134509203.html)

 

Venezuelan socialist defiant as US sanctions threaten baseball

Venezuela's upcoming baseball season will go on "even if we have to play ourselves," socialist party No. 2 Diosdado Cabello said on Monday, criticizing a move by US-based Major League Baseball to restrict players from participating because of US sanctions. MLB said last week it would suspend involvement in the Venezuelan league, which starts play in October, while it awaited word from the US government on whether its players' participation was consistent with Washington's sanctions on this nation, which are meant to force out socialist Nicolas Maduro. While the number of Venezuelan major league stars returning to their baseball-mad homeland to play has declined in recent years because of security issues and an economic crisis, many of the players on the Venezuelan league's eight professional teams also play for one of MLB's hundreds of minor-league affiliates. (The Sydney Morning Herald: https://www.smh.com.au/world/south-america/even-if-we-have-to-play-ourselves-venezuelan-socialist-defiant-as-us-sanctions-threaten-baseball-20190827-p52l2q.html)

 

Russia, China offer to help Venezuela in preparing for 2020 Olympics — Maduro

Russia and China have offered to help Venezuelan athletes to prepare for the next Summer Olympic Games, Nicolas Maduro claimed on Thursday. "Russia and China have offered us special help in training," Maduro said at a meeting with young athletes that was broadcast on Twitter. He said that "many athletes" will be able to go to Russia and China for training. "I am confident that we will show our best results in history at the Tokyo Olympics," Maduro noted. The next Summer Olympic Games will be held in Japan's Tokyo in July-August 2020. (TASS: https://tass.com/world/1073700)

 

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.