August 29, 2019

International Trade

Over 4000 tons of food and general cargo have arrived at Guanta port

The local port authority reports that 4303 tons of food and general cargo have arrived at Guanta in 249 containers aboard the CFS PALAMEDES. Cargo includes wheat flour, spaghetti, packaged beans, tuna, along with oil industry equipment and tires. More in Spanish; (Bolipuertos, http://www.bolipuertos.gob.ve/noticia.aspx?id=43618)

 

Oil & Energy

China helps Venezuela boost oil production

China has financed the construction of a new oil blending plant in Venezuela that will boost the country’s flagging oil production by 120,000 bpd, IHS Markit reports, citing an investment of US$ 3 billion, provided by China’s CNPC, PDVSA’s partner in the SINOVENSA venture that will operate the new plant.  SINOVENSA is 49% owned by the Chinese state giant and 51% owned by PDVSA. It currently produces 100,000 bpd in the Orinoco belt. The crude is a medium grade of the Orinoco super heavy that’s then mixed with light crude to make the Merey blend, which, along with other medium grades, are in high demand among Asian refiners. The latest news suggests that China has no intention of changing course about Venezuela no matter what the U.S. decides to do in response. And it seems it is not the only one: India, according to IHS Markit shipping data, still buys Venezuelan oil in defiance of U.S. warnings. The average import rate since June has been about 450,000 bpd. That’s a solid part of Venezuela’s total production, as calculated by OPEC secondary sources. For July, the figure stood at 742,000 bpd. (Oil Price: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/China-Helps-Venezuela-Boost-Oil-Production.html)

 

Commodities

Venezuela's trees suffer as firewood replaces scarce cooking gas

Chronic shortages of natural gas in the country with the world’s largest oil reserves now mean that cooking fuel is increasingly coming from trees. The growing use of firewood has triggered alarm among activists who say discussions of environmental problems are often eclipsed by diatribes about runaway inflation, economic collapse and a protracted political stalemate. Fires and home construction in the last 40 years have deforested about 10% of Henri Pittier Park, said Enrique Garcia, director of the ecological group Let’s Plant. In addition, he said, the collection of firewood in urban areas can cause respiratory problems from smoke, rising temperatures in cities and increased risk of landslides in poor communities where houses are often built on unsteady terrain. Wood stoves are now a common sight across Venezuela because of the shortage of gas. Tanks used to store, and transport propane are in disrepair for lack of maintenance. In some cases, people burn trash next to a tree to dry it out so the tree can be cut down and used for cooking fuel. Authorities are broadly ignoring legislation that prohibits cutting down trees without permits. Some cities have so little tree cover that those in search of firewood must walk for miles. (https://www.euronews.com/2019/08/29/venezuelas-trees-suffer-as-firewood-replaces-scarce-cooking-gas)

 

Economy & Finance

Venezuela’s cash reserves shoot up from PDVSA despite sanctions

PDVSA’s sales to China just netted Venezuela a cool US$ 700 million, increasing its reserves to US$ 8.8 billion. Most of the US$ 700 million was in the form of the Chinese yuan and comes from back payments made to PDVSA for its crude oil deliveries to China. The payments had been delayed due to the US sanctions on Venezuela and PDVSA, as both parties struggled to come up with a way to send and receive payments in the face of those sanctions. Venezuela has also sold some crude oil for euros cash via intermediaries. It has also sold gold for euros as well as it tries to make up for lost oil revenue. It took out eight tons of gold in April for sale abroad. Venezuela has seemingly abandoned the dollar trade for its crude oil for fear of running afoul of the US sanctions on the Latin American country. This push away from digital transactions will make it more difficult to track where money is coming from and where it’s going to. (Oil Price: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Venezuelas-Cash-Reserves-Shoot-Up-From-PDVSA-Despite-Sanctions.html)

 

GAZPROMBANK completes transfer of stake in sanctions-hit lender

GAZPROMBANK said on Wednesday it had completed its handover of a stake in Russian-Venezuelan lender EVROFINANCE MOSNARBANK, which was placed under U.S. sanctions, to Russia’s state property management agency. The United States announced sanctions on EVROFINANCE MOSNARBANK in March for its dealings with Venezuelan state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA). (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-banks-venezuela-gazprombank/gazprombank-completes-transfer-of-stake-in-sanctions-hit-lender-idUSKCN1VI1ES)

 

Maduro official says remittance platform for Petro is ready to use

National Superintendent of Cryptoactives Joselit Ramírez has announced that crypto remittance platform Patria Remesa is live and functioning. Additionally, Ramírez highlighted his confidence in the platform’s safety, as well as how the Venezuelan cryptocurrency El Petro (PTR) allegedly hedges against economic depreciation. Given the Venezuelan government’s history of not delivering on promises related to the PETRO, COINTELEGRAPH advises readers to approach Ramírez’s announcement with skepticism. (Cointelegraph, https://cointelegraph.com/news/venezuelan-official-says-remittance-platform-for-petro-is-ready-to-use)

 

Politics and International Affairs

U.S. offers amnesty to Maduro, if he leaves power

A top American diplomat said the United States would not prosecute or otherwise seek to punish Nicolás Maduro if he voluntarily left power, despite bringing his country to the verge of economic collapse and humanitarian disaster. Elliott Abrams, the State Department’s special envoy for Venezuela, said he had seen no indication that Maduro was willing to step down. But his offer of amnesty was a message to Maduro after both countries’ leaders described high-level talks that Abrams unequivocally said did not happen. “This is not a persecution,” Abrams said of Mr. Maduro on Tuesday evening in an interview. “We’re not after him. We want him to have a dignified exit and go.” He added: “We don’t want to prosecute you; we don’t want to persecute you. We want you to leave power.” The Treasury Department last year accused Maduro of profiting from illegal drug trafficking in Venezuela but did not recommend charges. The softer, if pragmatic, appeal sharply contrasted with the eight months of sanctions, international isolation and threats by the Trump administration of military intervention against Maduro and his loyalists, who are accused of hoarding power and manipulating elections last year. Opposition leaders in Venezuela have not offered immunity to Maduro, whom they accuse of prospering in a corrupt government that has left many Venezuelans without food, electricity or medical supplies.  “The notion that we are negotiating is just flat-out wrong,” Abrams said. “And the notion that there is a pattern of communication is wrong. There are intermittent messages and I think people would find the very occasional message sent from Washington to be completely predictable: ‘You need to return to democracy. Maduro needs to leave power.’” The comments are likely to soothe Venezuela’s opposition leaders, who have privately said Trump’s statement risked sidelining their own negotiations. A delegation headed by the opposition’s chief political negotiator, Stalin González, traveled to Washington last week to press American officials on the Trump administration’s policy in Venezuela. Abrams said he did not currently see any value in talking directly to the Maduro regime. Abrams maintained on Tuesday that the United States would not lift sanctions against Venezuela unless Maduro steps down. Abrams said the Trump administration would not support new national elections with an incumbent — either Maduro or Mr. Guaidó — on the ballot. If either man wanted to run for the presidency, Abrams said, he should first leave office to prevent concerns about election tampering by the government. And he predicted that Guaidó would formally close the negotiations by Oct. 1 to prevent them from dragging on without resolution. “It’s pretty clear that he has not yet reached the conclusion that it is hopeless,” Abrams said, adding: “He may reach that conclusion tomorrow.” Any offer of amnesty by the United States would have limits. A White House official has previously told The New York Times that the Trump administration would be unable to remove any federal drugs charges that several of Maduro’s top confidants and relatives face. (The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/28/world/americas/us-amnesty-venezuela-maduro.html)

 

US Department of State announces the opening of the Venezuela Affairs Unit (VAU), under the leadership of Charge d’Affaires James Story. The VAU is the interim diplomatic office of the U.S. Government to Venezuela, located at the U.S. Embassy in Bogota‎, Colombia, and has been established with bipartisan support from the U.S. Congress.  The VAU is continuing the U.S. mission to the legitimate Government of Venezuela and to the Venezuelan people.  The VAU will continue to work for the restoration of democracy and the constitutional order in that country, and the security and well-being of the Venezuelan people. The VAU interacts with the government of interim president Juan Guaidó, the democratically elected National Assembly, Venezuelan civil society, and the people of Venezuela.  The United States welcomes the support of the Government of Colombia, which is a further demonstration of its steadfast commitment to democracy and peace in the region. The United States stands with interim President Juan Guaidó, the National Assembly, and the people of Venezuela as they seek to regain their democracy. (State Department: https://www.state.gov/creation-of-the-venezuela-affairs-unit/; VOA: https://www.voanews.com/usa/us-sets-diplomatic-mission-venezuela-colombia; Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-usa/u-s-opens-venezuelan-diplomatic-office-in-colombian-capital-idUSKCN1VI1Y9)

 

Venezuela's Guaidó names shadow cabinet to help oust Maduro

Venezuela’s interim president Guaidó named a new shadow cabinet on Wednesday, launching the latest phase of his campaign aimed at forcing Nicolas Maduro from power.  The new team — including heavyweight opposition figures Leopoldo Lopez and Julio Borges — will be dedicated to preparing for a transitional government and new elections, said Guaidó, who claimed presidential powers in late January as head of the National Assembly, saying Maduro's election last year was a fraud. Guaidó's so-called interim government functions more tangibly outside of Venezuela than at home.  Guaidó said he's calling on his political mentor Lopez to serve as general coordinator, though Lopez has lived in the Spanish ambassador's home in Caracas for protection since launching a failed military uprising with Guaidó on April 30.  Opposition lawmaker Borges, who lives in exile in Colombia, will oversee Guaidó's foreign relations, and other members of his team will deal with economic development, asset recovery and human rights. (VOA: https://www.voanews.com/americas/venezuelas-Guaidó-names-shadow-cabinet-help-oust-maduro)

 

Venezuela condemned by OAS for 'systematic' rights abuses

The Organization of American States passed a resolution Wednesday condemning "grave and systematic" human rights abuses in Venezuela and demanded an independent investigation. The regional security body, which comprises every country in the western hemisphere but Cuba, passed the resolution by a 21 to 3 vote. Seven members abstained and three were absent for the vote. The resolution echoed charges of torture, extrajudicial killings and force disappearances made last month against Venezuela's leftist regime by UN human rights chief Michelle Bachelet. It condemned "the grave and systematic violations of human rights in Venezuela, including the use of torture, illegal and arbitrary detentions, extrajudicial executions, forced disappearances and the denial of the most basic rights and necessities, especially those related to health, food and education." It also called for "an independent, exhaustive and credible investigation" to bring the perpetrators to justice and demanded that Venezuela grant "immediate and unhindered" access to the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights. The resolution was presented by Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, the United States, Guatemala, Paraguay and Peru. (France24: https://www.france24.com/en/20190828-venezuela-condemned-by-oas-for-systematic-rights-abuses)

 

Maduro says dialogue only way to overcome political deadlock

Dialogue is the only means to overcome political deadlock in Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro told Xinhua in an exclusive interview. He said he has proposed the idea of a "permanent negotiating table" between the ruling socialist party and the opposition, as dialogue has resumed after the government side briefly walked away from the talks to protest stepped-up U.S. sanctions. "I have proposed creating a permanent mechanism for dialogue, a permanent negotiation table, which is capable of withstanding any storm, any difficulty, any situation -- dialogue, dialogue for peace," he stressed. Maduro said he has also proposed that the two sides discuss the main problems facing Venezuela and "seek agreed-on, shared solutions." "I can report that we have resumed contact with the government of Norway, there have been several meetings, we have resumed contact with the representatives of the Venezuelan opposition," Maduro said. He expressed optimism that "in the next few days, we will announce good news about the dialogue process." "They have done us harm -- and that's how I am denouncing it to the world -- they have done great harm to the quality of life, to the living standards of the Venezuelan people, but we are in a condition to continue moving forward despite these attacks," said Maduro. (XINHUANET: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-08/29/c_138348004.htm)

 

Venezuela's political crisis talks 'not working,' says Guaidó

Venezuela's interim president Juan Guaidó admitted on Wednesday (Aug 28) that talks with the Maduro regime aimed at resolving the country's political crisis "aren't working." The two sides are deadlocked with Guaidó demanding Maduro's resignation and the government insisting the United States lift sanctions that it blames for the country's crippled economy. "At the moment there's no date to restart the mechanism mediated by the kingdom of Norway until we achieve something concrete to approach a solution," said Guaidó. He said that if the government is using the talks simply to boost its image "that serves no purpose for the Venezuelan people." (Channel News Asia: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/venezuela-s-political-crisis-talks--not-working---says-Guaidó-11850808)

 

Cuba asks Canada to help end U.S. sanctions on Venezuela

Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez urged Canadian counterpart Chrystia Freeland on Wednesday to help end U.S. sanctions on Venezuela in their third meeting since May on this country’s political and humanitarian crisis. Canada, a neighbor and NATO ally of the United States, also has long-standing good relations with Cuba, raising hopes it could serve as a mediator in the Venezuelan crisis. U.S. Vice President Mike Pence called on Canada in June to do more to engage directly with Cuba over what he called its “malign influence” on Venezuela. The Canadian Foreign Ministry said in a statement that Rodriguez and Freeland agreed that senior officials would stay in contact and continue to exchange views over Venezuela. (Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-cuba-canada/cuba-asks-canada-to-help-end-us-sanctions-on-venezuela-idUSKCN1VJ02G; Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-28/trudeau-envoy-presses-cuba-to-mediate-in-venezuelan-stalemate)

 

Venezuelans Enter Ecuador from Colombia via Secondary Route

About 1,400 Venezuelans crossed over the weekend from Colombia into Ecuador via the San Miguel Bridge, a secondary route linking the two countries, before new visa rules took effect, officials said Monday. The Venezuelans waited under the hot sun to enter Ecuador before the new visa requirements took effect on Monday.
EFE reporters confirmed that hundreds of Venezuelans waited at a CEBAF binational border service processing center in San Miguel, a city in Putumayo province. The Colombian immigration service said more than 11,000 Venezuelans left the country over the weekend, heading into Ecuador via the Rumichaca International Bridge, the main binational border crossing. Colombian immigration service officials told EFE that 103 people arrived after midnight in San Miguel with plans to enter Ecuador, which started accepting applications for humanitarian visas on Monday. Officials from the two countries started talking about allowing the Venezuelans to enter Ecuador and 83 have been admitted so far. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2482567&CategoryId=10717)

 

U.S. to pay for thousands of doses of HIV drugs for Venezuelan migrants

The United States said on Wednesday it will provide thousands of doses of HIV medication to treat Venezuelans in Colombia as part of regional efforts to manage care for millions of migrants fleeing the crisis-hit nation. U.S. Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Alex Azar told Reuters about the decision in a phone interview following a meeting this week of health officials from 10 countries in the Colombian border city of Cucuta. The officials agreed to various measures meant to help the more than 4 million Venezuelans who have left home amid widespread shortages of food and medicine. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/colombia-usa-health/u-s-to-pay-for-thousands-of-doses-of-hiv-drugs-for-venezuelan-migrants-idUSL2N25O1DV)

 

Venezuelan migrant who sings for tips gets shot at stardom after chance meeting

When Mexican singer Mario Domm overheard a Venezuelan migrant crooning Domm’s own song in exchange for coins outside a restaurant in Bogota, Colombia, he was moved to tears by the young man’s powerful voice. Now Domm is helping the singer, 22-year-old Alexander Beja, pursue his dream of musical stardom. Beja is one of 1.4 million Venezuelans now living in Colombia, after fleeing a deep political and economic crisis in their home country that has caused long-running shortages of food and medicine. The young singer arrived in Colombia last year and began to sing regularly on the streets of northern Bogota, in hopes of earning what money he could. On the day last month when he was overheard by Domm, Beja was singing a tune called “Venezuela.” “He had a voice like a bazooka,” said Domm, who founded the pop group Camila in 2005. “He has to use it.” (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-migration-colombia-music/venezuelan-migrant-who-sings-for-tips-gets-shot-at-stardom-after-chance-meeting-idUSKCN1VH1KL)

 

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.

August 27, 2019

International Trade

Venezuela, Russia sign ports agreement

Warships from Russia and Venezuela can dock at one another’s national ports under an agreement signed earlier this month between Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López and his Russian counterpart, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, in Moscow. The Venezuelan official was in Moscow for nearly a week in mid-August. In a video posted on 15 August on the Twitter account of the Venezuelan military’s press office, Padrino López said bilateral defense ties commenced in 2001 and the new ports agreement will “strengthen these relations.” (Jane’s: https://www.janes.com/article/90647/venezuela-russia-sign-ports-agreement)

 

Venezuela Parliament says military agreement with Russia ‘unconstitutional’

Venezuela's National Assembly controlled by the opposition declared null and void a new agreement with Russia on military cooperation. The declaration was published on Monday. The document concerns "the agreement on military cooperation between the governments of Venezuela and Russia, signed by defense ministers Vladimir Padrino Lopez and Sergey Shoigu." "This agreement was not considered either by a commission on foreign policy, sovereignty and integration or by parliament, which makes it unconstitutional, and this means that it is null and void," the declaration said, calling it unconstitutional. The parliament also said that opening a Venezuelan embassy in North Korea was "a violation of the constitution", TASS reported. On August 15, Shoigu and Lopez signed an agreement on reciprocal visits of military ships at the meeting in Moscow. The defense ministers also discussed the situation in Venezuela and issues of bilateral military cooperation. (TASNIM News Agency: https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2019/08/27/2084075/venezuela-parliament-says-military-agreement-with-russia-unconstitutional)

 

Oil & Energy

China's July Venezuela oil imports fall over U.S. sanctions

China’s crude oil imports from Venezuela plunged 62% in July from the previous month, Chinese customs data showed on Sunday, as growing tension between Washington and the Maduro regime made buyers wary of taking oil from this nation. Arrivals of crude oil from Venezuela were 703,742 tons last month, or 165,720 barrels per day (bpd), data from the General Administration of Customs showed. That is down from 275,646 bpd in June. With U.S. sanctions on Venezuela having already driven away many of its oil buyers, the Trump administration in early August kept up the pressure by threatening sanctions on any company that works with Maduro’s government. Venezuela’s oil exports fell 17.5% in July to their second lowest since Washington imposed the sanctions in January, according to internal data from the company and REFINITIV EIKON. China National Petroleum Corp, a leading buyer of Venezuelan oil, has halted loadings in August amid concerns over potential hits by the secondary sanctions. REFINITIV Oil Research showed only three cargos carrying a total 540,000 tons of crude have left from Venezuela for China so far this month, half of the figure in July. For the first seven months of the year, China’s imports of Venezuela crude oil fell 13.4% on a year earlier to 9.37 million tons, or 322,601 bpd. (Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-trade-crude/chinas-july-venezuela-oil-imports-fall-over-us-sanctions-idUSKCN1VF06N; Lloyd’s List: https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1128939/VenezuelaChina-oil-flows-fail-to-stem-plunging-tanker-demand)

 

Half of Venezuela's oil rigs may disappear if U.S. waivers lapse

A looming U.S. sanctions deadline is threatening to clobber Venezuela’s dwindling oil-rig fleet and hamper energy production in the nation with the world’s largest crude reserves. Almost half the rigs still operating in Venezuela will shut down by Oct. 25 if the Trump administration doesn’t extend a 90-day waiver from its sanctions, according to data compiled from consultancy Caracas Capital Markets. That could further cripple this nation’s production because the structures are needed to drill new wells crucial for even maintaining output, which is already near the lowest level since the 1940s. (Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-22/trump-takes-aim-at-oil-rigs-crucial-to-venezuela-s-energy-future)

 

CITGO profits hit by fallout from split, sees 2H improvement -CEO

The two new top executives at CITGO Petroleum disclosed this week that net income in the second quarter slid to less than half its level a year earlier, hit by a broad slump for the refining industry as well as complications from U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and CITGO’s split with state-run oil company PDVSA. Chief Executive Officer Carlos Jorda and Chairwoman Luisa Palacios on Thursday laid out a plan to rebuild profits, pay down debt and invest in operations after a jarring split this year from parent Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA). But they conceded that their plans could be complicated by U.S. sanctions on Venezuela which have affected relationships with suppliers and partners. One contentious issue is whether CITGO or another PDVSA subsidiary is responsible for a payment of almost US$ 1 billion due to bondholders this fall. Houston-based CITGO, the eighth-largest U.S. refiner, ousted its CEO and other top executives early this year and halted all dealings with PDVSA after Washington levied sanctions on Venezuela intended to force Nicolas Maduro from power. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/citgo-ceo/citgo-profits-hit-by-fallout-from-split-sees-2h-improvement-ceo-idUSL2N25J0LQ)

 

Explosion rocks Venezuela oil plant

An explosion rocked a natural gas-filling plant in the Venezuelan state of Miranda, forcing the evacuation of 6,500 residents, TELESUR reports, adding the Venezuelan government has called the event an act of sabotage. The explosion caused no fatalities with only one worker at the plant reported injured. According to a report in the leftist daily Morning Star, “The attacks were branded ‘terrorism’ by the Maduro regime. This is the latest in a string of accidents that highlight the precarious energy situation in sanction-bound Venezuela. Earlier this year, several blackouts crippled the country, with the government calling them a sabotage as well. The latest blackout, in July, Caracas blamed on an electromagnetic attack. The blackouts hit Venezuela’s oil industry particularly hard, leading to a suspension of operations at crude upgraders and its main oil export terminal. (Oil Price: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Explosion-Rocks-Venezuela-Oil-Plant.html)

 

Economy & Finance

Cold, hard euros: Venezuela turns to European cash after U.S. sanctions

From supermarket checkouts in the capital Caracas to electronics stores in the central city of Maracay, Venezuelans struggling with hyperinflation and a deep economic crisis are turning to a new form of payment: euros in cash. Runaway inflation that has made even large piles of the local bolivar currency worthless - combined with the socialist government’s relaxation of restrictions on the use of foreign currency - has encouraged Venezuelans to turn to dollar bills for everyday transactions in the past year. But in the past four months, euros have also started proliferating in markets and stores here. With the stock of dollars in circulation still far greater than euros, Venezuelan merchants tend to quote items at the same price in the European and U.S. currency - ignoring the euro’s higher value on international markets. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-economy-euros/cold-hard-euros-venezuela-turns-to-european-cash-after-u-s-sanctions-idUSKCN1VD195)

 

Politics and International Affairs

Guaidó vows to shun early election

Venezuela's National Assembly President and interim President Juan Guaidó said Friday that opponents of Nicolás Maduro won't participate in any early legislative elections he calls amid a protracted power struggle. Guaidó said in an interview with The Associated Press that it would be a "farce" to participate in any election with the Maduro regime still in control of the country. The man recognized by the U.S. as Venezuela's rightful leader also said he plans to keep the self-claimed title of "acting president" even after his one-year term as leader of the opposition-controlled National Assembly ends in the new year. "We are very clear that we're going to continue until the point that elections in Venezuela are in reality free," Guaidó said. He contended there are signs Maduro's government is weakening, alleging it is resorting to torturing opponents while growing isolated from its people and the international community. Socialist party chief Diosdado Cabello, a key Maduro ally, has said elections for the National Assembly — the most important opposition-dominated institution in Venezuela — could be held in January or earlier. The legislature's five-year term is set to end in December 2020 and elections are traditionally held in the last month of its term. (AP: https://news.yahoo.com/venezuela-opposition-leader-vows-boycott-164911841.html)

 

The price of removing Nicolas Maduro from office may be amnesty for his deputies, by Eli Lake

No one should take Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro’s words at face value. That applies to his claims last week that his regime is in secret negotiations with “high-ranking” American officials. His comments were almost certainly a gambit to divide the opposition during the on-again, off-again negotiations over new elections being brokered by the Norwegian government. They were a ploy to make the internationally recognized but largely powerless government of interim President Juan Guaidó believe that U.S. President Donald Trump was negotiating behind its back. That said, there is a kernel of truth buried in Maduro’s fiction. Trump also acknowledged talks at “a very high level” last week. U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton has said these contacts are not authorized by Maduro and are aimed at ushering in free elections. So: America is talking to Maduro’s deputies — about how to get rid of Maduro. If the apparatchiks who preach socialism are now looking to protect their fortunes and stay out of jail, that may mean the collapse of the regime is nigh. At the same time, this back and forth highlight just how unsatisfactory the fall of Maduro is likely to be. His ouster will require the cooperation of his enablers — and the price of their cooperation, at a minimum, will be amnesty. Guaidó and his supporters have been keenly aware of this dilemma since January, when most of the Western Hemisphere recognized him as interim president of Venezuela. One of his first acts was to press the National Assembly to pass an amnesty law for civilian and military officials who worked to restore constitutional government. At the time, Human Rights Watch, which has documented much of the Maduro regime’s crimes, criticized the law for being dangerously vague and overbroad. More than eight months into his efforts to oust Maduro, however, some details are coming into focus — namely, the kinds of scoundrels that will evade justice in exchange for turning on Maduro. As one senior U.S. official told me, the U.S. has delivered messages to Maduro’s deputies, often through intermediaries, that they are interested not in vengeance but only in an orderly transition to free and fair elections. (Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-26/ousting-venezuela-s-maduro-may-require-amnesty-for-his-deputies)

 

U.S. sanctions on Venezuela undercut talks, key Maduro ally says

U.S. sanctions against Venezuela are making successful talks with the opposition impossible, said a key ally of Nicolas Maduro, demanding that President Donald Trump immediately act to drop them. "The stone in the way of any negotiation is sanctions," Tarek William Saab, Venezuela’s public prosecutor, said in a rare interview at the Public Prosecutor headquarters office in downtown Caracas. "It is a shot in the foot of any negotiation because how can you negotiate with a gun pointed at your head?" (Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-23/u-s-sanctions-on-venezuela-undercut-talks-key-maduro-ally-says)

 

Argentina poised to abandon Venezuela’s opposition

Election-bound Argentina is poised to withdraw from the vocal bloc of Latin American nations that supports Venezuela's political opposition and recognizes its leader, Juan Guaidó, as the country's interim president. Alberto Fernandez, the leading candidate to replace Argentina's president Mauricio Macri in 27 October elections, is signaling that his administration would not seek to remove Nicolas Maduro. If Fernandez and his unrelated running mate and former president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner win the presidency, Buenos Aires would likely pull out of the Lima Group of Latin American countries and Canada that have been seeking to isolate the Maduro government in favor of a transition administration led by Guaidó. In a 25 August television interview, Alberto Fernandez made it clear that he disagreed with Macri who has long denounced Maduro's government as a dictatorship. "It is very difficult to qualify an elected government as a dictatorship. An elected government can become an authoritarian government," Fernandez said, explicitly challenging the position of the Lima Group, the US and most EU countries, which assert that Maduro was fraudulently re-elected in May 2018. "The institutions are working there, we can then discuss how they work, but formally there is an assembly, there are courts. A dictatorship generally lacks these things," he added in explaining why he does not deem Venezuela to be a dictatorship and prefers to describe Maduro's government as authoritarian. A Fernandez administration would bring Argentina closer in line to the stance of Uruguay and Mexico, which advocate non-intervention in Venezuela and object to extensive US financial and oil sanctions on the country. "I do not agree with all these proposals that line up Latin America behind (US president Donald) Trump and I value the proposal that was made by (Mexican president Manuel) Lopez Obrador and (Uruguayan president) Tabare Vazquez and I think I would add myself to those two to try to help find a solution for Venezuela," Fernandez said in the television interview. (Argus: https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/1965727-argentina-poised-to-abandon-venezuelas-opposition?backToResults=true)

 

Maduro looks to North Korea for support – opens first embassy in Pyongyang

The deterioration of Venezuela’s relations with the Western world, imposition of harsh Western economic sanctions and open calls for regime change by the United States and many of its allies have led Caracas to strengthen ties with several Western adversaries since 2017. The country’s ties with Russia and China have been highly prolific, but a quieter but less conspicuous partnership which has been built has been that between Venezuela and North Korea. In December 2018 North Korean Presidium President and Head of State Kim Yong Nam paid a state visit to Caracas, and it was widely speculated that defense and economic cooperation was under discussion. North Korea opened an embassy in Caracas four years prior. Furthering a trend towards greater cooperation, on August 21^st, 2019, the Maduro regime opened its first embassy in Pyongyang which was attended by the deputy foreign ministers of both states. Maduro’s Deputy Foreign Minister Ruben Dario Molina stated at the event: “the people and leaders of Venezuela and the North Korea have become a target for attacks and threats by North American imperialism, which seeks to put us on their knees because of our implacable ideology and the desire to achieve economic and social progress.” His Korean counterpart Pak Myung Guk stated: “the government of the DPRK (North Korea) is constantly in its desire to expand and develop a relationship of friendship and cooperation with Venezuela, which are being placed in the flame of the general anti-imperialist struggle for independence and socialism.” (Check Point Asia Net: https://www.checkpointasia.net/venezuela-looks-to-north-korea-for-support-opens-first-embassy-in-pyongyang/)

 

Venezuelans stranded as Ecuador imposes new visa rules

Ecuador on Monday joined Peru and Chile in restricting Venezuelan immigration. To enter the country, Venezuelans now need to provide a criminal record, apply for a visa before arrival and present a valid passport. As the deadline neared, many Venezuelans in Ecuador rushed home to retrieve family members. Thousands more rushed east from their homes in Venezuela, eager to start a life in Ecuador that would soon be much harder to achieve. The last-minute wave sowed chaos for immigration officials on both sides of the Ecuador-Colombia border. Migrants waited hours in bitterly cold temperatures as they navigated immigration processes. Temperatures dropped to six degrees Celsius and many slept huddled together in blankets as they queued, in some cases overnight. Colombian migration officials did not know the exact number of Venezuelans who crossed before the border closed on Sunday, but a director at the Rumichaca office told Al Jazeera that more than 11,000 Venezuelans had crossed as of 6pm, well before the midnight deadline. According to Colombian immigration officials on the Venezuelan border in Cucuta, there are still more on the way. The chaos was not limited just to Colombia as masses of migrants huddled in Ecuador as well, waiting to be processed. Passports can cost several months’ salary for most Venezuelans, though many migrants told Al Jazeera the actual price is much higher when one factors in necessary bribes of US$ 100 to US$300. In a country where the monthly minimum wages has fallen to below US$ 5, that is beyond the reach of most Venezuelans. (Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/08/venezuelans-stranded-ecuador-imposes-visa-rules-190826134509203.html)

 

Venezuelan socialist defiant as US sanctions threaten baseball

Venezuela's upcoming baseball season will go on "even if we have to play ourselves," socialist party No. 2 Diosdado Cabello said on Monday, criticizing a move by US-based Major League Baseball to restrict players from participating because of US sanctions. MLB said last week it would suspend involvement in the Venezuelan league, which starts play in October, while it awaited word from the US government on whether its players' participation was consistent with Washington's sanctions on this nation, which are meant to force out socialist Nicolas Maduro. While the number of Venezuelan major league stars returning to their baseball-mad homeland to play has declined in recent years because of security issues and an economic crisis, many of the players on the Venezuelan league's eight professional teams also play for one of MLB's hundreds of minor-league affiliates. (The Sydney Morning Herald: https://www.smh.com.au/world/south-america/even-if-we-have-to-play-ourselves-venezuelan-socialist-defiant-as-us-sanctions-threaten-baseball-20190827-p52l2q.html)

 

Russia, China offer to help Venezuela in preparing for 2020 Olympics — Maduro

Russia and China have offered to help Venezuelan athletes to prepare for the next Summer Olympic Games, Nicolas Maduro claimed on Thursday. "Russia and China have offered us special help in training," Maduro said at a meeting with young athletes that was broadcast on Twitter. He said that "many athletes" will be able to go to Russia and China for training. "I am confident that we will show our best results in history at the Tokyo Olympics," Maduro noted. The next Summer Olympic Games will be held in Japan's Tokyo in July-August 2020. (TASS: https://tass.com/world/1073700)

 

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.

 

August 20, 2019

International Trade

Cargo arrivals reported at Puerto Cabello

The local port authority is reporting the arrival of 10,743 ton of assorted merchandise at Puerto Cabello, including auto parts, personal care products, chemicals, textiles, and appliances, aboard vessels AS FABIANA, NIKOLAS, PERITO MORENO, CAP BEATRICE, CONTSHIP ZOE, FS IPANEMA and CFS PALAMEDES. It also reports the arrival of 81,290 tons of bulk products, such as 30,000 tons of soy on the BOSPHORUS PRINCE, and 40,000 tons of White corn aboard the CORAL ISLAND. More in Spanish: (Bolipuertos, http://www.bolipuertos.gob.ve/noticia.aspx?id=43614)

 

Logistics & Transport

Vessels from Venezuela can still transit Panama Canal

The Panama Canal will allow vessels coming from Venezuela to transit the waterway provided they present the necessary paperwork, the canal authority’s chief said on Wednesday, suggesting a new round of U.S. sanctions on this country may not make any difference to canal traffic. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-panamacanal-venezuela/vessels-from-venezuela-can-still-transit-panama-canal-authority-idUSKCN1V41WM)

 

Oil & Energy

China CNPC suspends Venezuelan oil loading, worried about U.S. sanctions

China National Petroleum Corp, a leading buyer of Venezuelan oil, has halted August loadings following the latest set of U.S. sanctions. Two Beijing-based senior sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Monday. "Trump's executive order gave a directive for the follow-up sanction measures that shall be announced by the U.S. Treasury... CNPC is worried that the company is likely to be hit by the secondary sanctions," said one source. A second person, an executive with a key marketer of Venezuelan oil in China, said his company had been notified of the suspension. "We were told that CHINAOIL will not load any oil in August. We don't know what will happen after." CHINAOIL is the trading vehicle of CNPC that lifts Venezuelan oil under term contracts and is one of Caracas' top oil clients. CNPC will wait for more guidelines from the U.S. Treasury before further moves in dealing with Venezuelan oil, said the first source. The suspension followed recent communications between the U.S. and Chinese governments, including a meeting between U.S. embassy officials in Beijing and top management at CNPC, the source added. Beijing has become increasingly pragmatic in recent years in an amply supplied global oil market and as Venezuela's economy plunged deeper into recession. For the first six months of this year, China imported 8.67 million tons of crude oil from Venezuela, or roughly 350,000 barrels per day, about 3.5% of its total imports, according to Chinese customs data. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-venezuela-oil-cnpc/china-cnpc-suspends-venezuelan-oil-loading-worried-about-u-s-sanctions-sources-idUSKCN1V909C)

 

Maduro battles for control of US-based refinery

The regime of President Nicolas Maduro on Thursday nullified the newly named board of Venezuela’s prized CITGO refineries in the U.S. amid a political battle for control of the country, saying opposition leaders had no right to appoint them. The opposition-run National Assembly appointed the 15-member CITGO board early this year after Guaidó declared presidential powers, arguing that Maduro’s re-election was illegitimate. CITGO is valued at an estimated $8 billion and includes three refineries in Louisiana, Texas and Illinois, in addition to a network of pipelines. Citgo is also at the center of court battles, such a lawsuit filed by Crystallex, which seeks to liquidate CITGO for payment following a disputed takeover of the Canadian mining firm by Venezuela’s late President Hugo Chavez. Russ Dallen, head of the Miami-based Caracas Capital Markets brokerage firm, said U.S. courts have already weighed in on who controls CITGO, deferring to the U.S. government’s recognition of Guaidó as Venezuela’s president, therefore recognizing his board appointments. Maduro’s state comptroller Elvis Amoroso, who made the announcement on state TV, also said the ad-hoc board members are banned from leaving the country and their Venezuelan bank accounts have been frozen. But it is unclear whether any of them continue to live here. Amoroso also said another five leading figures opposed to Maduro have been banned from politics for 15 years. They include former Attorney General Luisa Ortega, former Caracas Mayor Antonio Ledezma and three opposition lawmakers, all of whom are living in self-imposed exile. So far this year, Maduro’s government has stripped 18 opposition lawmakers of their immunity, exposing them to criminal prosecution in a sigh of heightened political tensions. (WTOP: https://wtop.com/latin-america/2019/08/venezuelas-maduro-battles-for-control-of-us-based-refinery/)

 

Economy & Finance

Turkish BANK ZIRAAT closes door on Venezuela amid U.S. sanctions

ZIRAAT BANK, Turkey’s largest bank by assets, has stopped offering services to Venezuela’s Central Bank in wake of tougher U.S. sanctions that raise the stakes for companies that do business with the Caribbean nation. The Ankara-based state bank confirmed the closing of its account without providing further details. Venezuela’s Central Bank was relying on ZIRAAT to pay contractors, move money and import products in Turkish liras. (Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-15/turkish-bank-ziraat-closes-door-on-venezuela-amid-u-s-sanctions)

 

Politics and International Affairs

In Venezuela talks, Maduro allies said they would consider fresh elections

Allies of Nicolas Maduro had discussed holding a presidential election in the coming months during talks to find a breakthrough in the country’s political crisis, four sources told Reuters on Monday. Opposition politicians will travel to Washington to speak to U.S. officials this week, the sources said. Maduro representatives and a delegation representing opposition leader Juan Guaidó have been meeting in Barbados as part of talks to resolve a political stalemate in the struggling nation that is suffering from a hyperinflationary economic collapse. Guaidó’s delegation had proposed a presidential vote in six to nine months on several conditions including changes to the election’s council and supreme court, said the sources, who asked not to be identified because the talks are confidential. The government had in theory agreed to a presidential vote on the condition that the United States lift economic sanctions, Maduro be allowed to run as the Socialist Party candidate, and that the vote be held in a year, one of the sources said. U.S. officials have expressed support for an election but without Maduro as a candidate, which may be a point of discussion, two of the sources said. Preparing groundwork for an election requires a raft of changes to state institutions, including both the elections council and the supreme court - both of which have aggressively intervened in election processes to favor Maduro. Another possible roadblock would be the existence of the Constituent Assembly, an all-powerful legislative body controlled by Socialist Party supporters that opposition leaders say could also intervene in any potential vote. (Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics/in-venezuela-talks-maduro-allies-said-they-would-consider-fresh-elections-sources-idUSKCN1V91SF)

 

US talks secretly to Venezuela socialist boss

The U.S. has opened secret communications with Venezuela’s socialist party boss as members of Nicolás Maduro’s inner circle seek guarantees they won’t face retribution if they cede to growing demands to remove him, a senior U.S. administration official has told The Associated Press. Diosdado Cabello, who is considered the most-powerful man in Venezuela after Maduro, met last month in Caracas with someone who is in close contact with the Trump administration, said the official. A second meeting is in the works but has not yet taken place. The talks are still preliminary. It’s not clear whether the talks have Maduro’s approval or not. Cabello, 56, is a major power broker inside Venezuela, who has seen his influence in the government and security forces expand as Maduro’s grip on power has weakened. But he’s also been accused by U.S. officials of being behind massive corruption, drug trafficking and even death threats against a sitting U.S. senator. The administration official said that under no circumstances is the U.S. looking to prop up Cabello or pave the way for him to substitute Maduro. Instead, the goal of the outreach is to ratchet up pressure on the regime by contributing to the knife fight the U.S. believes is taking place behind the scenes among competing circles of power within the ruling party. Similar contacts exist with other top Venezuelan insiders, the official said, and the U.S. is in a listening mode to hear what it would take for them to betray Maduro and support a transition plan. At a press conference Monday, Cabello shied away from discussing any details of the meeting, at one point likening it to “a lie, a manipulation.” But he also said he has long stood welcome to talk to anyone, so long as any discussions take place with Maduro’s approval. An aide said the U.S. has been increasingly knocking on Cabello’s door, desperately looking to establish contact. The aide rejected the notion Cabello was somehow betraying Maduro, saying that Cabello would only meet with Americans if it contributes to lifting sanctions, he blames for crippling the oil-dependent economy. The aide spoke on the condition of anonymity because he isn’t authorized to discuss political affairs publicly. The U.S. has repeatedly said it would offer top socialists’ relief from sanctions if they take “concrete and meaningful actions” to end Maduro’s rule. As head of the constitutional assembly, Cabello has the power to remove Maduro, a position that could come in handy in any negotiated transition. The news site AXIOS reported Monday morning that Mauricio Claver-Carone is the U.S. official that has been in contact with Diosdado Cabello, the number two man in Venezuela and President of the polemical Constituent Assembly legislative. An opposition politician briefed on the outreach said Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino and Interior Minister Néstor Reverol are among those in indirect contact with the Americans, underscoring the degree to which Maduro is surrounded by conspirators even after an opposition-led military uprising in April was easily quashed. (AP: https://www.apnews.com/a3e6b0da8c5648558e61bbaa466fbb42; Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2482306&CategoryId=10717)

 

82% of Venezuelans polled believe Maduro should leave office in 2019

The latest poll by DATANALISIS shows 85.1% of the population has a negative view of the Maduro administration, and only 12.9% called it positive. 64.8% of Venezuelans pointed to the economy as the worst problem they are facing, and 18.3% mentioned social issues, as well as 16.3% pointed to political issues. More in Spanish: (El Nacional, https://www.elnacional.com/venezuela/datanalisis/)

 

US Southern Command head focused on ‘day after’ in Venezuela

The head of U.S. Southern Command says military officials are focusing on preparing for “the day after” once an “isolated” Nicolás Maduro leaves power. Navy Adm. Craig Faller warned Monday against Venezuela’s “formidable weapon system” and criticized Cuba, Russia and China for assisting Maduro, saying it was important to put “continuous pressure” on the “illegitimate regime” and organize humanitarian efforts. (Military Times: https://www.militarytimes.com/video/2019/08/06/saudi-special-forces-go-all-out-for-hajj-display/)

 

Trump has considered naval blockade of Venezuela

President Trump has reportedly suggested that the U.S. place ships along the coast of Venezuela to blockade goods from coming into the fraught nation. According to five current and former officials, the Pentagon hasn’t taken the suggestions by the president seriously because of its impracticability and because it would divert naval assets away from countering Iran and China, Axios reported. “He literally just said we should get the ships out there and do a naval embargo,” one official said. “Prevent anything going in.” “I’m assuming he's thinking of the Cuban missile crisis,” the official added. “But Cuba is an island and Venezuela is a massive coastline. And Cuba, we knew what we were trying to prevent from getting in. But here what are we talking about? It would need massive, massive amounts of resources; probably more than the U.S. Navy can provide.” (Washington Examiner: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/trump-has-considered-naval-blockade-of-venezuela)

 

Russia warns US against imposing blockade on Venezuela

Russia on Tuesday warned the U.S. against "incautious steps" in tightening sanctions on Venezuela, and throwing a total blockade over the country. Speaking to reporters in Moscow, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov called on Washington to assist Venezuelans in bridging existing chasms instead of hindering talks between the government and opposition. He said he would discuss the situation in Venezuela with Delcy Rodriguez, the country's vice president, who arrived in Russia on Monday for a working visit. "We will examine the situation, referring to the strengthening by Washington of illegal, illegitimate sanction measures, attempts to set up a blockade [on Venezuela]. We warn Washington against incautious steps in this area," Ryabkov said. (AA: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/russia-warns-us-against-imposing-blockade-on-venezuela/1560476)

 

Venezuelan exodus may soon double, triggering a bigger regional crisis

One of the things that surprised me the most during a lengthy interview with Juan Guaidó, the Venezuelan National Assembly president who is recognized by the United States and more than 50 countries as Venezuela’s legitimate leader, was his forecast that the number of Venezuelan exiles may “easily” reach 8 million by next year. It’s a mind-boggling figure because it would be twice the 4 million exiles that, according to a recent United Nations report, have already fled the country since dictator Nicolas Maduro took office five years ago. Eight million people would amount to about 25% of Venezuela’s population. Twice the current number of Venezuelan exiles would cause a much bigger economic, and perhaps political, earthquake for many Latin American countries. Asked about the Trump administration’s new economic sanctions on Venezuela, which ban U.S. transactions with state-owned Venezuelan businesses, Guaidó told me in the Aug. 12 interview that, “They seek to prevent the regime’s use of those resources to finance irregular (paramilitary) groups or to steal the Venezuelan people’s money.” Dismissing Maduro’s claims that Venezuela’s humanitarian crisis has been caused by U.S. sanctions, Guaidó said that, “The sanctions went into effect three days ago, whereas the 65% contraction of the economy has been taking place over the past six years. The Maduro regime bears total responsibility for the crisis.” Asked about the Cuban presence in Venezuela, Guaidó told me that there are “between 2,000 and 3,000 Cubans who are carrying out intelligence, counterintelligence, repression and even torture” for Maduro’s armed forces. I asked Guaidó whether he’s fearful that international pressure to restore democracy in Venezuela may weaken soon. Guaidó responded that governments come and go, noting that El Salvador’s new government, for instance, has switched sides to support him. He added that Maduro, too, is becoming weaker, as nearly 90% of Venezuelans want him to leave power, according to a recent MEGANALISIS poll. “Time is running against (all) Venezuelans, including Maduro, who is collapsing,” Guaidó told me. “What’s important is to take advantage of the window of opportunity we have to prevent an even bigger humanitarian catastrophe” and to “step up international diplomatic pressures to end the suffering of the Venezuelan people.” (The Oppenheimer Report: https://tribunecontentagency.com/article/venezuelan-exodus-may-soon-double-triggering-a-bigger-regional-crisis/

 

U.N. pleads for more help to relieve Venezuelan refugee crisis

United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi appealed on Sunday for more humanitarian aid for Venezuelan refugees pouring into neighboring countries where they are overwhelming social services and sparking local tensions. Grandi had planned to visit the Brazilian border town of Pacaraima this weekend, but authorities advised him to cancel due to protests by residents unhappy with the arrival of more than 500 Venezuelans a day. The UNHCR estimates 4.3 million Venezuelans have fled economic and political turmoil in their country, mainly to Colombia where there are 1.2 million and to Peru, Chile and Ecuador. Some 180,000 have stayed in Brazil. The U.N. and NGOs put out a humanitarian appeal for US$ 770 million at the start of the year and has received less than US$ 180 million, Grandi said in a telephone interview after visiting Chile and Brazil. “This is really one of the most under-funded humanitarian appeals in the world for one of the biggest crises,” he said. Financial institutions such as the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank are engaged but need to speed up their help, he said, to help sustain health and education systems. Grandi said there were signs of anti-immigrant sentiment spreading across the region, reflected in mounting restrictions on the movement of Venezuelans in Andean countries. But he praised Chile, which has received 400,000 Venezuelans, for granting safe passage and a guarantee of asylum. (Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-brazil-refugees/u-n-pleads-for-more-help-to-relieve-venezuelan-refugee-crisis-idUSKCN1V80M8)

 

Colombia’s armed groups prey on Venezuela migrants

A new report by Human Rights Watch (HRW) on violence in the department of Norte de Santander, Colombia, shows how vulnerable Venezuelan migrants are to the criminal groups that dominate the region. The report, entitled “The War in Catatumbo” and published August 8, documents abuses by armed groups against Venezuelan and Colombian civilians in Norte de Santander’s Catatumbo region in northeast Colombia along the border with Venezuela. It explains that groups like the National Liberation Army (Ejército de Liberación Nacional – ELN), the Popular Liberation Army (Ejército Popular de Liberación – EPL), and the dissidents of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia – FARC), are responsible for an uptick in killings and other crimes. The affected Venezuelan citizens live in Catatumbo’s urban areas, including the municipalities of Tibú, Ocaña, El Tarra, Ábrego, Convención and Sardinata. In these areas, the migrants — including many minors and women — live in precarious conditions which leave them at the mercy of criminals, according to HRW. “We have documented on the ground that armed groups in Catatumbo commit all types of abuses: murders, disappearances, kidnappings, recruitment of minors, sexual violations, threats and displacements,” HRW Director José Miguel Vivanco told Semana. There are currently close to 25,000 Venezuelans in Catatumbo who, despite being aware of the security risks in the region, have crossed the border in search of work, food and medicine, according to Vivanco. The Venezuelans have arrived as tens of thousands of Catatumbo’s residents have been displaced by the conflict among the various armed groups. Desperate, the migrants find themselves caught in areas where these groups are vying for territory and control of criminal economies. Officials with the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) on the border city of Cúcuta told InSight Crime that fear of being deported or arrested keeps Venezuelan nationals from seeking help from local authorities. (InSight Crime: https://www.insightcrime.org/news/brief/armed-groups-colombia-receive-venezuela-migrants/)

 

Fears grow of Venezuela malnutrition time bomb

The graffiti scrawled across a wall in Caracas is short but heartfelt. “Tengo hambre,” it reads. “I am hungry”. It is a cry increasingly heard across Venezuela. As Nicolás Maduro and western-backed opposition leader Juan Guaidó battle for the country’s future amid an economic collapse that has sparked severe shortages of food, fuel and medicine, millions of people are going hungry for extended periods and risking long-term damage to their health, humanitarian organizations have warned. “Six to eight million people are living in a state of undernourishment,” said Susana Raffalli, a veteran Venezuelan humanitarian adviser who has worked across the world with the Red Cross and UNICEF, the UN agency for children. Speaking before the latest US sanctions, she said: “That means the state cannot guarantee they have an adequate supply of food.” Ms. Raffalli’ s assessment is supported by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization. José Graziano da Silva, outgoing head of the FAO, said in a press interview last month that there had been a “dizzying increase” in hunger in Venezuela in recent years. In a recent report on global food security, the FAO estimates that between 2016 and 2018, about 21.2% of the Venezuelan population was undernourished. When Maduro came to power in 2013 the figure was 6.4%, it says. In a June report, UNICEFs estimated that 3.2m children in Venezuela were “in need of assistance”. Millions of poorer Venezuelans rely on monthly deliveries of government-subsidized food boxes for survival, a system critics denounce as a form of social control, alleging supplies are skewed towards supporters of the government. Delivery has become increasingly erratic, and the contents of the boxes are of variable quality, say aid workers. Washington has meanwhile accused the Maduro government of skimming off hundreds of millions of dollars from the food program, and last month-imposed sanctions on Maduro’s three stepsons over their alleged roles. One businessman with knowledge of the food situation in Venezuela, who spoke to the Financial Times on condition of anonymity for fear of government reprisals, said data show a large proportion of Venezuelans are living on between 1,500 and 1,900 calories a day. Malnutrition is particularly acute in the provinces, say aid workers. North-western Zulia state, on the border with Colombia, is one of the worst-hit areas. In a survey late last year, the Commission for Human Rights in Zulia State (CODHEZ), a local NGO, found that three-quarters of households in the state capital Maracaibo were suffering from hunger. Eight in 10 people said they could no longer afford protein such as chicken and beef and survived largely on arepas — traditional corn flour patties — margarine, pasta and rice. Since then, the situation has worsened as wages have failed to keep pace with galloping inflation. “The price of food went up 8,165% between last October and this June,” said Juan Berríos, a researcher at CODHEZ. Nine months ago, the monthly minimum wage bought 24kg of corn flour but now it buys less than 4kg. Venezuela will face long-term consequences from chronic undernourishment, especially of children, humanitarian organizations warn. NGO data seen by the FT show the weight and height of Venezuelan children have fallen significantly below the average for comparable populations. (Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/b6459434-b531-11e9-8cb2-799a3a8cf37b)

 

EDITORIAL: US sanctions are worsening Venezuela’s agony

“One of the worst man-made humanitarian disasters in the modern world.” US secretary of state Mike Pompeo’s assessment of Venezuela is sweeping, but fair. A nation which has the world’s biggest oil reserves but has descended into such economic chaos that up to a quarter of its population has fled should qualify by any standards. Those left behind face severe shortages of food, medicine and fuel. Malnutrition is stunting a generation of Venezuelan children. Top officials stand accused of corruption, drug trafficking and gold smuggling. Sadly, the cure adopted by the Trump administration is only making the patient sicker. Evidently the blame for the suffering of the Venezuelan people lies principally at the door of Chávez and his chosen successor, Nicolás Maduro, under whose rule the country has plumbed new depths. The Trump administration believes that by choking Venezuela’s economy harder Maduro can be ejected. The remedy is not working; other countries under drastic sanctions, such as Cuba, have similarly strangled economies, but long-lived leaders. The key to ending the agony lies in a much broader diplomatic effort. EU and Latin American nations have brokered talks between the government and opposition, but these have failed because Maduro’s key backers — Cuba, Russia and China — are missing. If Moscow, Beijing and Havana have nothing to gain from Maduro leaving power, they will continue to back him. Broad international talks to negotiate Maduro’s exit to a third country, installation of a respected interim president, equal treatment of all creditors and fresh elections are the way forward. This will not be popular with some in Washington. But the Venezuelan people’s suffering is rapidly worsening. Russian president Vladimir Putin suggested to this newspaper in July that Moscow’s interests in Venezuela were purely commercial and vowed that if Guaidó won an election, the Kremlin would work with him. That pledge should be put to the test. (Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/f7dd72a4-c044-11e9-b350-db00d509634e)

 

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.