International Trade
Cargo that has arrived at Puerto Cabello:
- 3,000 head of cattle and 500 containers with
basic products from Brazil - including 197 vans carrying beef, 60 with
whole powdered milk, 44 with margarine, and 213 bearing chicken, all for
state agency CASA.
- 2,100 taxi cars from China for the Land Transport
Ministry and state agency SUVINCA
- 29, 000 tons of rice for state agency CASA
30,000 tons of soy beans from
Argentina for
manufacturing cooking oil have arrived at Maracaibo's port, for state agency
CASA. (Bolipuertos, http://www.bolipuertos.gob.ve/noticia.aspx?id=33819)
Logistics & Transport
International departure tax for Venezuelans is now
Bs.5,100 (34 Tax Units), up 900%,
according to a resolution from the Vargas state Tax Administration
Superintendent’s Office (SATVAR, in Spanish). (Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=45587&idc=2)
While in Latin America, air travel
increased 2-12% last year, in Venezuela it
dropped 8.5%, according to the International Air Transportation Association
(IATA). The IATA repeated its criticism of the measures taken by the Venezuelan
regime which have hurt airlines and have made it impossible for Venezuelans to
fly since the offer is scarce and the tickets are rather expensive.
(Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=45575&idc=3)
Commodities
P&G Venezuela announced it was
increasing its current production capacity of dishwashing liquid four times fold, up 25% in
detergent production. The production increase will begin in November, according
to a company’s press release. (Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=45585&idc=3)
Economy
& Finance
Goldman Sachs expects liquidity crunch to worsen in
2016
Under current expectations for oil prices, the
liquidity crunch could worsen considerably in 2016 when we estimate a cash-flow
deficit of US$ 18.4 billion. While we expect that additional contraction of
domestic absorption could help to further reduce the current account deficit –
from US$ 15.9 billion to US$ 13.2 billion – an inevitable reduction of
extraordinary financing or the one-offs used this year would result in a
noticeable increase in the external cash shortage. Policy inaction could
further exacerbate the deterioration of domestic macroeconomic conditions. But
at this moment, besides a forced devaluation of the preferential exchange rate
in the post-electoral period, it is difficult to foresee a meaningful policy reaction
to the more adverse economic backdrop. The fate of the credit would thus
increasingly depend on additional financing from China and/or some type of
liability management that postpones (or reduces) some short-term external debt
payments. SEE ATTACHED REPORT.
Moody’s reports hyperinflation has begun here
Moody's agency has issued a report warning that
Venezuela is undergoing "current
inflation is a hyperinflationary event", adding that there is no
official data on inflation through September 15th, but that unofficial
projections indicate the current situation has resulted in a "serious crisis that can only be overcome
through deep structural change". More in Spanish: (El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/)
Purchasing power has dropped 40% year to date
Henkel
García, a director of the ECONOMETRIC think tank, says scarcity of food and
basic products, plus high inflation have caused a drop of 40% in buying power
in Venezuela year to date. More in Spanish: (El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/)
Politics and
International Affairs
Hounded by unpopularity, Maduro plays at war
Venezuela's ruler Nicolás Maduro speaks of
peace but is decidedly on a war footing. Two days had not gone by after he
pledged to lower tensions with Bogotá and he was already threatening to close
down more border passes and calling out the specter of war with Guyana. The
collapse of Venezuela's economy has left Maduro with only the drum of nationalism
to revive the ashes of the now unpopular "bolivarian" revolution facing parliamentary elections in which
the opposition carried a 30% lead. The crisis has been created by Maduro with
two key goals: Distract public opinion and torpedo free exercise in border
municipalities where he has declared a state of siege. More in Spanish: (El Nuevo Herald: http://www.elnuevoherald.com/noticias/mundo/america-latina/venezuela-es/article36332061.html#storylink=cpy)
Analyst claims border
conflict has positive political connotations for regime
DATANALISIS President Luis Vicente León says it
is convenient for the Venezuelan government to keep up the border crisis
because it has "positive political
connotations" for the regime. More in Spanish: (Noticiero Digital: http://www.noticierodigital.com/2015/09/luis-vicente-leon-tema-de-la-frontera-tiene-connotaciones-politicas-positivas-para-el-gobierno-venezolano/)
Guyana
accuses Venezuela of 'aggressive behavior'
near border area, is ready to mobilize troops
Guyana's President David Granger says Venezuela
has launched an "extraordinary military deployment" in the east of
the country, near a disputed border area. "We have noticed during the month of September an extraordinary
escalation of Venezuelan military activity in eastern Venezuela,"
Granger said. "It is a persistence
of aggressive behavior, hostile behavior towards Guyana," he said,
adding the deployment was "mostly
marine and various forms of ground forces." He did not provide further
details. Venezuela's Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino had announced that the
armed forces were conducting military exercises in both the east and west of
the country. Chief of Guyana Defense Forces Mark Phillips says his country is
ready to mobilize troops along the border with Venezuela, and reiterated
allegations that significant and unusual military movements are taking place on
the Venezuelan side. Phillips added that so far there has been no increase in
the number of Guyanese troops deployed along the border with Venezuela, but it
could happen in the event of any aggression against the territory of Guyana.
(Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/22/venezuela-guyana-idUSL1N11S1YC20150922;
Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2397037&CategoryId=10717;
http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2396975&CategoryId=10717;
El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/150923/guyana-ready-to-mobilize-troops-along-the-border-with-venezuela)
Foreign Ministers of Venezuela, Colombia start
meetings here
Venezuelan Minister of Foreign Affairs Delcy
Rodríguez and her Colombian counterpart María Ángela Holguín, began a meeting
in the seat of the Venezuelan Foreign Office here, the first one of a number of
meetings intended to get the border situation back to normal. Holguín attended
with Colombia's ministers of Defense, Luis Carlos Villegas; Treasury and
Finances, Mauricio Cárdenas; and Mines and Energy, Tomás González; the high
military command; the president of the Colombian Petroleum Company, Juan Carlos
Echeverry, and representatives of the National Administration of Taxes and
Customs (DIAN). No announcements were made following the meeting. Prior to that
Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos reported that in the meeting held in
Quito, he told his Venezuelan
counterpart Nicolás Maduro that he "broke
the rules of the game" by not calling him in advance when he decided
to shut down the border and to "violate
the rights" of Colombians. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/150923/fms-of-venezuela-colombia-start-meeting-in-venezuelan-foreign-office; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/150923/santos-maduro-broke-the-rules-of-the-game)
Colombia's
Gaviria may bring suit against Maduro
César Gaviria, Colombia's former President and
former Secretary General of the Organization of American States, is meeting
with that country's other former Presidents, Andrés Pastrana and Álvaro Uribe
to analyze the border situation with Venezuela, and is considering bringing
suit against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in international courts.
Gaviria will also denounce potential fraud in upcoming parliamentary elections
here, as well as constant violation of human rights in this country. More in
Spanish: (El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/)
31 former heads of state call for observers in
Venezuela's parliamentary elections
31 democratic former heads of state from Spain
and Latin America have again come together to denounce damage to democratic
freedoms in Venezuela and call for "impartial
and technically qualified international oversight by the UN, the OAS and the
European Union" in parliamentary elections here December 6th. The group's statement is signed by Eduardo Duhalde and
Fernando de la Rúa (Argentina); Fernando H. Cardoso (Brazil); Jorge Quiroga
(Bolivia); Sebastián Piñera, Ricardo Lagos and Eduardo Frei (Chile); Andrés
Pastrana, Álvaro Uribe, Belisario Betancur and César Gaviria (Colombia); Miguel
Ángel Rodríguez, Rafael Ángel Calderón, Laura Chinchilla, Óscar Arias and Luis
Alberto Monge (Costa Rica); Osvaldo Hurtado and Lucio Gutiérrez (Ecuador); Alfredo
Cristiani and Armando Calderón Sol (El Salvador); Felipe Calderón and Vicente
Fox (México); Mireya Moscoso, Nicolás Ardito-Barletta and Ricardo Martinelli
(Panamá); Juan Carlos Wasmosy (Paraguay); Alejandro Toledo (Perú); José María
Aznar and Felipe González (Spain); and Luis Alberto Lacalle and Julio María
Sanguinetti (Uruguay). Bolivia´s Quiroga asserted that "Brazil is a leader and must take a clear
position" on this matter. Uruguay's Sanguinetti and Lacalle added that
Venezuela is belligerent and lacks an independent system of justice; and Sanguinetti says if the upcoming
election is "honest" it
will make for a "very important
change". More in Spanish: (El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/; Infolatam: http://www.infolatam.com/2015/09/23/31-expresidentes-reclaman-observacion-electoral-en-venezuela/;
http://www.infolatam.com/2015/09/24/sanguinetti-y-lacalle-venezuela-es-beligerante-y-sin-justicia-independiente/)
Leopoldo López' wife to bring case to UN
General Assembly
Lilian Tintori, the wife of jailed Venezuelan
dissenter Leopoldo López has announced she will attend the United Nations (UN)
General Assembly in New York next week to present the case of her husband, who
was sentenced to nearly 14 years of imprisonment, and also the situation of
dissenters described as "political
prisoners" by the Venezuelan opposition. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/150923/leopoldo-lopezs-wife-to-address-un-general-assembly)
Machado charges
that closing the border seeks total militarization
Maria Corina Machado
has charged that President Nicolás Maduro's goal in calling for a new border is
to have Venezuela end up "fenced in,
incommunicated, humiliated and despoiled". "They do not want anyone to find out about abuse and outrages that are
daily committed against citizens". More in Spanish: (El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/)
Caracas Metropolitan Mayor Antonio Ledezma’s
preliminary hearing was
deferred for the sixth time this Tuesday even though the Criminal Code
establishes it must be done within 45 days from the day the defendant is
arrested. Ledezma was arrested last February 19. The hearing is now scheduled
for October 21. (Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=45578&idc=1)
Venezuela denies having funded Peru's Humala
The
Venezuelan embassy in Peru denied Venezuela had funded the 2006 electoral
campaign of incumbent president Ollanta Humala. According to a TV show, called
"Cuarto Poder" (Fourth
Power), the government of late Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez secretly funded
Humala's campaign for president. An alleged witness reported transactions
amounting to US$ 400,000, through Brazil's ODEBRECHT construction company.
Peru's Attorney General Office is currently investigating Humala's wife for
having received large amounts of money at the time. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/150923/venezuela-denies-funding-of-perus-ollanta-humala)
The
following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media
sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect
those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.
