Venezuelan Daily Brief

Published in association with The DVA Group and The Selinger Group, the Venezuelan Daily Brief provides bi-weekly summaries of key news items affecting bulk commodities and the general business environment in Venezuela.

Showing posts with label Eulogio Del Pino. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Eulogio Del Pino. Show all posts

Friday, December 1, 2017

December 01, 2017


International Trade

 

Cargo arrivals:

  • 30,000 tons of yellow corn at Puerto Cabello port, aboard the POLA UGLICH
  • 11,697 tons of food for the government CLAP distribution program, at La Guaira port, aboard the VIKING MERLIN, from Mexico.
More in Spanish: (Bolipuertos, http://www.bolipuertos.gob.ve/noticia.aspx?id=38807; El Universal; http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/economia/llegan-alimentos-para-los-clap_679456)

 

Logistics & Transport

 

Venezuelan airline barred from European Union skies

Venezuela's AVIOR Airlines has been banned from European Union skies after a commission determined it no longer meets international safety standards, another blow to troubled nation's already beleaguered flight industry. The European Commission announced Thursday that AVIOR had been added to a list of international airlines prohibited from flying within the union because the European Aviation Safety Agency detected "unaddressed safety deficiencies." The Venezuelan airline is one of a handful still offering international flight destinations as major carriers like United and Delta halt operations in the crisis-ridden nation. Air carriers have cited financial and safety concerns as reasons for suspending service. AVIOR operates flights within Venezuela, throughout Latin America and to Miami, Florida, and lists an office location in Madrid on its website. The airline is certified under U.S. federal aviation regulations and Venezuela remains in good standing with the International Aviation Safety Assessment, the Federal Aviation Administration's program to determine whether foreign countries provide sufficient safety and oversight of airlines that fly to the U.S. (Fox News: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/11/30/venezuelan-airline-barred-from-european-union-skies.html)

 

Oil & Energy

 

New oil czar head blames oil woes on 'sabotage', claims Venezuela can do without sales to US

Venezuela's oil industry is being sabotaged, the general newly installed as the crisis-hit country's oil minister and head of state crude giant PDVSA said Thursday. "We have managed to arrest 20 people involved in a plan to sabotage production," General Manuel Quevedo told reporters at a meeting of OPEC in Vienna that agreed to extend established oil production cuts through all of 2018. "This sabotage plan is aimed at achieving a repeat of 2002-3 when there was an attempted coup against [Hugo] Chavez," the former president, Quevedo said. "This time there is a whole plan to hit [oil] production." Quevedo also floated the possibility that Venezuela would stop selling oil to the United States, echoing comments from President Nicolas Maduro on Tuesday. "We want to sell oil to the American people but if their government doesn't want to help its people, then we can easily switch to other markets," Quevedo said. The general also claimed that Venezuela has funds to meet its current obligations and said delays in payments were due to bank “maneuvers” as part of a “conspiracy” to block and delay payments under US orders. (AFP/Jamaica Observer: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/latestnews/Venezuela_blames_oil_woes_on_sabotage?profile=1228); and more in Spanish: (Noticiero Venevisión, http://www.noticierovenevision.net/noticias/economia/acuerdo-de-recorte-petrolero-opep-y-no-opep-aplicara-todo-2018; Agencia Venezolana de Noticias; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/pa%C3%ADses-petroleros-extienden-recorte-producci%C3%B3n-hasta-finales-2018; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/economia/opep-socios-amplian-recorte-produccion-hasta-finales-2018_679577; http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/economia/quevedo-asegura-que-hay-liquidez-para-pagar-deuda-pero-reconoce-retrasos_679503)

 

CITGO names new CEO as arrests in Venezuela continue

Houston-based CITGO Petroleum officially named a cousin of the late Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez as its new chief executive Thursday as a purge of Venezuela's energy establishment reached the top tiers of government. Asdrubal Chavez, a former oil minister, was installed as the CITGO CEO following the arrests last week of CITGO's previous CEO and five other executives on corruption charges. In announcing the new chief executive, CITGO did not mention last week's arrests nor did it note Chavez's relationship to the late president. As for Chavez, he is a politician and former Venezuelan oil minister. CITGO declined to comment on whether he will live in Houston or lead the company from Venezuela. He's a 1979 chemical engineering graduate from the Universidad de los Andes who started his career at the El Palito Refinery in Venezuela. He worked his way up to vice president of refining at PDVSA, and then to oil minister from 2014 to the beginning of 2016. (The Houston Chronicle: http://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/article/Citgo-names-new-CEO-as-arrests-in-Venezuela-12396991.php)

 

ExxonMobil helping Guyana pay legal fees in World Court Guyana-Venezuela border case

The United States oil giant has agreed to help pay Guyana’s legal fees, amounting to just over US$ 15 million, for taking of the Guyana-Venezuela border controversy to the World Court, despite a denial earlier Thursday. High-level government sources said that the so-called US$ 20 million signing bonus from Exxon “is to assist with the border process as the UN Secretary General has promised to refer the case to the World Court in about four weeks. Guyana’s Finance Minister, Winston Jordan one week ago denied that government had raked in US$ 20 million from ExxonMobil as a signing bonus. Earlier Thursday, Minister of State Joseph Harmon said: “in the event that the matter goes to the ICJ, the legal fees would be paid by the Government of Guyana.” Sources, however, said that the government is “garnering all the necessary resources” to prepare for the demarcation of the border with Venezuela given numerous threats to the country’s national security. (Demerara Waves: https://demerarawaves.com/2017/11/30/exxonmobil-helping-guyana-pay-legal-fees-in-world-court-guyana-venezuela-border-case-sources-but-harmon-says-no/)

 

PDVSA's Amuay refinery halts distillation unit

Venezuela’s 645,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) Amuay refinery has halted its distillation unit No. 5 due to an operational problem, union leader and opposition activist Ivan Freites said on Thursday. The 955,000 bpd Paraguana Refining Center, which includes Amuay and the neighboring 310,000 bpd Cardon refinery, is currently producing at 27% of its installed capacity, Freites said, citing an internal report. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-refinery-operations-pdvsa-amuay/pdvsas-amuay-refinery-halts-distillation-unit-union-leader-idUSKBN1DU2QE)

 

Economy & Finance

 

In Venezuela, the dollar’s gained 10,768% in just the last two years

The speed at which the Venezuelan bolivar is sinking against the dollar is hard to fathom. It’s one of those rare market moves that’s so crazy that analyzing it from the perspective of the declining currency feels inadequate. That’s because the value of a currency, of course, can’t fall more than 99.99%. Gains, on the other hand, are infinite. And so, it’s more illuminating to examine the move from the angle of the dollar’s advance against the bolivar. In the black market -- the place where most Venezuelans acquire dollars in the authoritarian country -- the U.S. currency has risen 135% this month alone. To date this year, it’s up 2,959%. And over the past two years, it’s climbed 10,768%. For some context, bitcoin, the cryptocurrency whose rally has mesmerized investors the world over, is up about 2,500% over that time. (That advance, it should be noted, is against the dollar, meaning bitcoin’s rally versus the bolivar is astronomical.) The bolivar traded at 96,794 per dollar as of late Wednesday. It had started the week at 82,186 per dollar and hovered under 10,000 per dollars as recently as late July. The official government-set exchange rate, a largely irrelevant number at this point, is 10 bolivars per dollar. The situation has become so out of control that some within Maduro’s constituent assembly -- including a former trade and investment minister -- have even begun talking about something that’s long been taboo for them: the idea of re-implementing some free-market policies. (Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-30/in-venezuela-the-dollar-s-gained-10-768-in-just-last-two-years)

 

Venezuela’s currency, the bolivar, has been rendered basically worthless

ATMs here now have a daily limit of 10,000 bolivars, which is just about enough to buy a few cups of coffee. Sometimes, bank tellers will only pay you half of your pension and suggest that you come back later for the rest. State spending in the communist state has been seen as out-of-control and other policies have simply led to hyperinflation. A vicious cycle has occurred where there is now not enough cash in circulation to keep up with the rapidly rising prices. Jean Paul Leidenz, a senior economist at the Caracas think tank ECOANALITICA commenting on the worthless currency said there are about 13 billion banknotes in circulation in Venezuela.  However, around half of these are 100-bolivar notes which equates to a fraction of one pence. The central bank has introduced higher-denomination bill such as the 100,000-bolivar note. These new banknotes are printed in Europe and the government lacks the money to import enough of them to meet demand. Leidenz added: "Prices are doubling around every two months. So, at that rate of price increases you can’t keep up with inflation even if you start importing bills." (The Express: https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/886361/venezuela-hyperinflation-bolivar)

 

Maduro’s National Constitutional Assembly approved the 2018 budget for VEB 36 billion

The pro-regime National Constitutional Assembly has approved Venezuela’s budget for fiscal 2018 for VEB 36 billion, which is more than US$ 10 billion at the highest official exchange rate. The budget was presented by Executive Vice President Tareck el Assami, bypassing Venezuela’s elected National Assembly which has been held in contempt and stripped of legislative Powers by the government controlled Supreme Tribunal. (Noticiero Venevisión, http://www.noticierovenevision.net/noticias/economia/anc-aprobo-presupuesto-del-ano-2018-por-36-billones-de-bolivares; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/economia/anc-aprueba-presupuesto-2018-por-361-billones_679586;  http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/politica/anc-aprobo-presupuesto-nacion-ley-endeudamiento-para-2018_679554)

 

Venezuela creditors meet with Rotshchild, Cleary in London

Investment bank Rothschild is participating in a Venezuelan creditors' meeting in London to discuss how to handle the country's request to restructure some US$ 60 billion in outstanding bonds. The meeting, organized by UK-based hedge fund MACROSYNERGY Partners, will aim to discuss a likely path forward on debt issued by the government and state-owned oil company PDVSA, as well as whether to form an informal, ad-hoc bondholder committee. Among those in attendance will be lawyers from Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP, including Lee Buchheit, a partner who specializes in sovereign debt restructurings. Rothschild, the Paris-based global advisory firm whose specialties include debt restructuring, is also participating. The meeting is one of the most concrete signs yet that holders of Venezuelan bonds are meeting with each other to strategize on how to handle the country's deeply distressed bonds. While President Nicolas Maduro has said Venezuela will keep servicing its obligations for now, bondholders ranging from hedge funds to emerging market funds are starting to lay the foundations for what could be a bitter showdown over this nation's debt down the road. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-debt/venezuela-creditors-meet-with-rothschild-in-london-sources-idUSKBN1DU2BC)

 

Tea Party Koch brothers sue Venezuela over US$ 400 million expropriation

After years of litigation at the World Bank's International Center for the Settlement of Investment Disputes arbitration panel (ICSID), the Koch Brothers -- stalwarts of the Tea Party -- have filed suit in Federal District Court in Washington, D.C., to collect a US$ 409 million ICSID award against Venezuela. The late President Hugo Chavez expropriated the fertilizer and chemical plant FERTINITRO in 2010. Koch had a 25% interest in the venture through its Swiss subsidiary Koch Minerals. Another Koch Swiss entity Koch Nitrogen International had contracts to buy the resulting ammonia and urea at a discount because of the investment as part of the deal and the investment was protected by a bilateral Swiss-Venezuela Investment Treaty. The Koch entities filed suit against Venezuela at ICSID in 2011 after not being compensated for the expropriation and the three judge ICSID arbitration panel awarded Koch US$ 409 million. In addition to the award, the panel also awarded legal fees of US$ 17 million and ICSID fees of US$ 629,000 to Koch, a sign that Venezuela was clearly at fault. Koch is a closely-held corporation owned by the Koch brothers, stalwart funders of the right-wing US Tea-Party. Costing US$ 1.1 billion dollars to build, FERTINITRO ranks as one of the world’s largest nitrogen-based fertilizer plants, with daily production capacity of 3,600 metric tons of ammonia and 4,400 metric tons of urea. Until the Chavez government expropriated it in October of 2010, FERTINITRO was owned 25% by a Koch subsidiary, 35% by Venezuela state petrochemical company PEQUIVEN, 20% by a Snamprogetti subsidiary of Italian oil company ENI, and 10% by Venezuela's private food and beverage giant Polar. (Latin American Herald Tribune: http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2446938&CategoryId=10717)

 

Some Venezuelan socialists are pushing for free-market reforms

As Venezuela’s economy sinks deeper into depression some ruling socialist party members are raising their voices to call for reforms. A closed-door debate is occurring inside the country’s all-powerful constituent assembly, the body stacked only with pro-government lawmakers created in August to sideline the opposition-controlled congress, on what to do with the economy. Perhaps one of the loudest voices calling for change is Jesus Faria, a former trade and investment minister who’s now a member of the constituent assembly. He has been urging the government to permit a free-floating exchange rate where the forces of the market set the best price for the bolivar. While he believes other stronger and subsidized exchange rates to shield the poor should be kept, it’s an odd public posture for a self-proclaimed Marxist economist who was a young university student in East Berlin when it was still under Soviet rule. Maduro has resisted calls to devalue the official rates or significantly cut subsidies on everything from gasoline to utility rates and has become infamous for saying he’s going to make important economic announcements without following through. While he added denominations of new bills of as large as 100,000 bolivars it’s done nothing to address the problems. The most significant economic adjustment he’s taken to save dwindling cash for debt payments was to curtail imports for everything from food to medicine and capital goods. The government fears that liberalization will lead to the depletion of the foreign reserves. Francisco Rodriguez, chief economist at TORINO Capital who himself has made recommendations to the government on economic reforms in recent years, said that while discussions to loosen currency controls aren’t new, they’ve become louder. (Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-30/some-venezuelan-socialists-are-pushing-for-free-market-reforms)

 

Politics and International Affairs

 

Venezuelan negotiations resume as financial pressures mount

Venezuela's socialist government and its opposition will seek today to jumpstart negotiations on resolving the country's economic and political crisis, pressured by international sanctions and a looming presidential election. The planned two-day session in the Dominican Republic is to be the first formal talks since anti-government protests collapsed in July with a toll of more than 120 dead and thousands detained. Given the scant results of previous attempts at dialogue, including talks last year mediated by the Vatican, expectations are low. But some analysts expressed optimism a deal could be struck because the cash-strapped administration of President Nicolas Maduro is desperately looking for support as it tries to refinance Venezuela's huge foreign debt. That will give the opposition a foothold to press their demands, analysts said. Just the fact that the two sides agreed to talk is a sign of progress. Still smarting from their belief the government committed fraud to pull off an unexpected victory in recent gubernatorial elections, several opposition parties are boycotting the talks as well as this month's mayoral elections. They say such things legitimize Maduro's "dictatorship." The hardliners have won a sympathetic ear from international critics, including Luis Almagro, the head of the Organization of American States, who this week said that "if I were Venezuelan I wouldn't go to the dialogue." Reflecting those tensions, the opposition delegation led by National Assembly President Julio Borges will for the first time include representatives from civil society groups. He said that would add transparency to the closed-door talks. Borges said they will repeat longstanding demands that the government release dozens of political prisoners recognize the National Assembly's authority and allow humanitarian aid. And the opposition will push for guarantees that next year's the presidential election will be free and fair, he said. "We want Venezuelans, with their vote, to be the ones who change this government," he said earlier this week at a news conference to outline goals for the talks. Lending urgency to the talks is Venezuela's spiraling financial crisis. The U.S. Treasury Department has said that U.S. sanctions could ease if any debt restructuring deal was endorsed by Venezuela's legislature, whose authority has been gutted by a pro-government assembly formed to rewrite the constitution. Also providing an extra nudge will be the presence as observers of foreign ministers from a half dozen Latin American countries, including two of Maduro's staunchest leftist allies, Bolivia and Nicaragua, and two harsh critics, Mexico and Chile. Chilean Foreign Minister Herald Muñoz has confirmed his nation will participate as an observer in these talks, but warned that Chile does not want them to be a “sham”, and that “if this were the case it would clearly make no sense to continue that kind of meeting”. Colombia’s Foreign Minister María Angela Holguín also said her country has reservations about the new negotiations that she called complicated because President Maduro wants to cling to power despite “his people’s suffering”. She added that arriving at decisions will be “very difficult due to radical positions and a divided opposition in the face of a government that is strong despite economic sanctions”. Former Lara state governor Henri Falcón of the Avanzada Progresista party has said they support the talks but will not attend because they were not invited, and complained that four opposition parties are taking the dominant role. Vicente Díaz, a former member of the National Elections Council, who will attend on behalf of the Democratic Unity coalition, has warned that “the government will be the one to blame if these talks deadlock”. (Fox News: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/12/01/venezuelan-negotiations-resume-as-financial-pressures-mount.html); and more in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/politica/gobierno-chile-espera-que-dialogo-sea-simulacro_679552; http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/politica/colombia-con-reservas-dialogo-gobierno-oposicion_679472; http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/politica/henri-falcon-avanzada-progresista-fue-excluida-del-proceso-dialogo_679447; http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/politica/diaz-este-proceso-tranca-sera-por-responsabilidad-del-gobierno_679431)

 

Maduro regime arrests ex-oil bosses for graft in widening purge

Venezuelan authorities on Thursday arrested two once-powerful officials who had run the oil ministry and state energy company PDVSA as part of a deepening industry purge also seen as a power play by leftist President Nicolas Maduro. In the highest-profile arrests to date, engineer Eulogio Del Pino and chemist Nelson Martinez were detained early on Thursday on accusations of graft and seeking to sabotage the nation’s ailing energy industry, prosecutor Tarek Saab said in a televised speech. He accused Del Pino of participating in a US$ 500 million corruption and sabotage scheme at the PETROZAMORA joint venture with Russia’s GAZPROMBANK and said Martinez had allowed a poor refinancing deal for Venezuela’s CITGO Petroleum Corp, a U.S.-based refiner that he used to lead, to go ahead without government approval. Videos during the press conference showed armed guards in balaclavas knocking on the officials’ doors, taking them from their homes in handcuffs and pajamas. The government will seek to seize the assets of corrupt officials abroad, Saab said, including mansions and yachts. Del Pino, in video shot before his detention and published on his Twitter account on Thursday, said he had been a “victim” of an “unjustified attack.” He said he would exercise his right to self-defense but did not elaborate on who ordered his arrest in the early hours of Thursday. Some 65 executives have been detained so far, panicking PDVSA workers, depriving Venezuela’s oil industry of much of its top brass, and stalling decision-making in the company overseeing the world’s biggest crude reserves. The opposition dismisses the probe as a power struggle within Maduro’s inner circle, noting that the industry has been under tight control of the ruling Socialist Party since early in the late President Hugo Chavez’s 14-year rule. They say authorities ridiculed and dismissed a report last year by the opposition-run Congress, which concluded that some US$ 11 billion went missing at PDVSA over a decade when Del Pino and Martinez were both influential officials. They say Maduro is sidelining influential and capable figures within his party who he thinks could become rivals for the presidency. Both Del Pino and Martínez are proteges of former oil czar Rafael Ramirez, who headed PDVSA and served as oil minister for a decade until becoming Venezuela’s ambassador to the United Nations in 2014. Ramirez is believed to be the ultimate target of the PDVSA housecleaning. “It looks like a political move. On the one hand giving more power to the military that sustain him and putting a loyalist at the helm, on the other eroding a rival’s power. But it would be very costly for the industry,” says Francisco J. Monaldi, a fellow in Latin American energy policy at the Baker Institute in Houston, noting that the “military have overseen other areas in which corruption is rampant.”

 

… but the top target on Maduro's purge list is holed up in Manhattan

But the one Maduro wants to nab the most remains free: Rafael Ramirez, the Venezuelan ambassador to the United Nations. The two have been intense rivals for years, dating to the days when the firebrand revolutionary Hugo Chavez was alive and rapidly converting Venezuela into a socialist economy. Back then, Ramirez was energy minister, overseeing the world’s largest oil reserves, while Maduro served most of that era as Venezuela’s foreign minister. The vast bulk of the executives imprisoned by Maduro’s forces are considered disciples or allies of Ramirez. The sense from Venezuelan watchers is that having successfully crushed the political opposition, Maduro is turning his attention to his enemies from within Chavismo as he prepares to run for re-election next year. Ramírez, who is thought to have had presidential ambitions, is struggling to survive after being fired from his job by Maduro and summoned back to Caracas from New York. In recent weeks he wrote online opinion articles criticizing PDVSA’s production slump and Maduro’s handling of the economy. According to press accounts, when Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza relayed the news of his firing to Ramírez over the phone Tuesday night, the ambassador retorted that only Maduro himself can fire him. Arreaza flew to New York on Wednesday, ostensibly to attend a Thursday meeting of the Non-Aligned Movement, but Caracas outlets reported he came to do the firing in person. While Maduro is Ramirez’s boss and can simply fire him if he so chooses, such a move is fraught with risk. In recent tweets and op-eds in a pro-government policy discussion website, Ramirez has pushed backed at his critics and at claims that he has broken ranks. “I demand respect. I cannot accept being discredited or called names simply because I give my opinion while completing my revolutionary duty,” he wrote. “I’m in complete exercise of my loyalty to Chavez.” By now, “Ramirez has accumulated enough money and influence to become a significant competitor against Maduro,” said Angel Alvarez, a political analyst and former professor at Central University of Venezuela. “Beating Ramirez is a way to end the financing of a possible non-Maduro candidate.” As U.N. ambassador, Ramírez has enjoyed diplomatic immunity—until now. A U.N. spokesperson, Farhan Haq, said the world body was not notified of any personnel changes in the Venezuelan representation; but Ramírez was a no-show at a dinner gathering where he’d previously confirmed attendance, and failed to appear at a General Assembly annual event he never skips. Saab did not mention Ramirez by name, although both Maduro and top officials have recently repeatedly referred to his governance as oil boss as a time when “mafias” were formed and executives came to think of themselves as the owners of Venezuela’s reserves. Authorities appear to be seeking information on Ramirez from Del Pino and Martinez as splits widen in the Socialist Party. Rather than returning to Caracas, Ramirez could instead just walk over to federal prosecutors’ offices as other ex-Chavistas have in recent years to share details of murky business transactions that have raised suspicion in the U.S. A Venezuelan diplomat said Ramírez is trying to use his deep knowledge of the way Venezuela does business as leverage to save his UN position, referring to oil agreements between PDVSA, and companies in Russia, Cuba, Nicaragua and elsewhere. Now, the diplomat added, he’ll lean on those countries to pressure Maduro not to fire him. If he loses the fight, the diplomat said, Ramírez may flee to Havana, Moscow or even Qatar, where he has a lot of contacts. Yet another diplomat cited Caracas sources who intimated Ramírez may already be working a deal with U.S. authorities who have implicated him in illegal activities, to inform on higher-ups and receive asylum in the United States. Ramirez’s next moves were not immediately clear.

 

… and Maduro´s reelection plans are confirmed

Vice President Tareck El Aissami said on Wednesday that he hoped that Maduro will be re-elected in 2018, the clearest sign yet that the former bus driver will seek another term despite the deepening economic crisis. Amid chants of “Maduro, Maduro” from the crowd at a rally in the central state of Aragua ahead of the Dec. 10 municipal elections, the vice president lashed out at the opposition. “They embody individualism, hatred, intolerance, sectarianism, treason, corruption, looting, and black-marketeering,” he said, describing all opposition leaders as being cut from the same cloth and as “puppets of Trump” who take orders from the US Embassy. Speculation has been rising that Maduro may call elections for as early as March to take advantage of disarray within the opposition, which has been struggling to come up with a strategy to confront the president’s increasingly authoritarian rule. Experts say it’s a high-risk strategy for Maduro, who is under increasing international pressure as well as U.S. financial sanctions. Should Ramirez decide to turn to U.S. authorities for protection, as many expect, he could likely provide incriminating testimony on corruption at the highest levels of the system.

(Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-oil/venezuela-arrests-ex-oil-bosses-for-graft-in-widening-purge-idUSKBN1DU1X4; https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-oil-prosectuor/venezuela-confirms-ex-oil-bosses-del-pino-martinez-detained-idUSKBN1DU279;  https://www.reuters.com/article/venezuela-oil/venezuela-arrests-ex-oil-minister-and-ex-pdvsa-head-sources-idUSL1N1O00RY: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-oil-delpino/in-pre-recorded-video-detained-venezuela-oil-minister-says-is-victim-idUSKBN1DU2V3; Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-01/no-1-target-on-venezuela-s-purge-list-is-holed-up-in-manhattan;  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-30/venezuela-arrests-former-oil-heads-as-pdvsa-graft-purge-deepens; The Daily Beast: https://www.thedailybeast.com/will-the-feds-nail-venezuelas-ex-un-ambassador; BBC News: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-42182289; The Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/venezuela-arrests-2-top-oil-officials-in-corruption-probe/2017/11/30/7b249b80-d5e4-11e7-9ad9-ca0619edfa05_story.html; The Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/articles/top-oil-officials-are-detained-in-venezuela-for-alleged-corruption-1512056145; Oil Price: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Venezuela-Arrests-Ex-Oil-Ministers-PDVSA-Bosses-For-Corruption.html; The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/30/world/americas/venezuela-maduro-oil-corruption-arrests.html; Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2446984&CategoryId=10717)

 

Ledezma asks Trump to double down on sanctions

Antonio Ledezma who fled to Spain and was recently ousted as mayor of Caracas following two years of house arrest on charges of conspiracy against the government is now on a tour of Washington, D.C.’s political corridors. Now free to travel, Ledezma visited the head of the Organization of American States, gave speeches at think tanks, and made media appearances in a bid to call attention to the plight of a nation he said is being held hostage. Ledezma’s presence in D.C.’s power-adjacent circles signals a growing interest in what’s happening in Venezuela, a nation Florida Senator Marco Rubio has referred to as a “lost democracy”. Ledezma says Venezuela’s economic woes will never be adequately addressed if Maduro remains in the highest office. He says any potential wealth the nation has due to oil production is immediately siphoned off to Cuba, and has called on US President Donald Trump to double down on sanctions on members of the Maduro regime. (Red State: https://www.redstate.com/slee/2017/11/30/life-socialist-venezuela-told-political-exile/); and more in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/politica/ledezma-pide-trump-que-amplie-sanciones-gobierno-venezuela_679481)

 

Venezuela and Russia teamed up to push pro-Catalan fake news

At the height of the Catalan separatist crisis, analysis of more than 5 million messages about Catalonia posted on social networks between Sept. 29 and Oct. 5, shows that only 3% come from real profiles outside the Russian and Venezuelan cybernetworks. These are the conclusions of a report prepared by Javier Lesaca, visiting scholar at the School of Media and Public Affairs at George Washington University. And there’s more: 32% of the messages investigated came from Venezuela—accounts linked to the regime of Nicolás Maduro. 30% were born from anonymous accounts exclusively dedicated to contents of the Russian state media RT and Sputnik; 25% came from bots; and 10% from the official accounts of the two Russian media mentioned. On the same dates, the geolocation data offered by social networks such as Twitter or Facebook show similar results: Excluding Spain, 13% of those who shared RT’s information about the illegal referendum in Catalonia were in Venezuela. Based on these data, the newspaper El País concluded on Nov. 11 that, the “Russian network used Venezuelan accounts to deepen the Catalan crisis.” Hours later the government of Spain claimed that it has well-founded information that confirms many messages with a Catalan secessionist bias in social networks comes from “Russian territory.” The evident purpose: to undermine European as well as Spanish unity. The possibility of Venezuelan involvement was left open. (The Daily Beast: https://www.thedailybeast.com/why-is-venezuela-waging-cyber-war-in-europe)

 

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

September 12, 2017


International Trade

Recent cargo arrivals:

  • 30,000 tons of white corn aboard the DL MARIGOLD, at Puerto Cabello, for state agency CUSPAL
  • 30,000 tons of sugar aboard the MV POLA PACIFIC, at Puerto Cabello, for state agency CUSPAL
  • 1052 head of cattle aboard MV GLAMAR, at Puerto Cabello, for state agencies.
  • 330 containers aboard MV SAN ANTONIO from Cartagena-Colombia, at Guanta port, bearing food, basic products and medical supplies, for the GMAS government program. The same vessel reportedly offloaded 3048 tons of food, 544 tons of medicine and 21 tons of personal care products at La Guaira port,
  • 677 tons of basic products, 297 tons of medical products, and 95 tons of personal care products, aboard the CONTSHIP PRO, at La Guaira port
More in Spanish: (Bolipuertos, http://www.bolipuertos.gob.ve/noticia.aspx?id=37616;  http://www.bolipuertos.gob.ve/noticia.aspx?id=37623;  http://www.bolipuertos.gob.ve/noticia.aspx?id=37618; El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/noticias/economia/llegan-puerto-guanta-2369-toneladas-alimentos_202933; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/economia/maiz-blanco-bovino-pie-arribaron-puerto-cabello_669113;  Noticiero Venevisión, http://www.noticierovenevision.net/noticias/economia/treinta-mil-toneladas-de-maiz-blanco-arribaron-al-puerto-de-puerto-cabello; Notitarde, http://www.notitarde.com/llegaron-a-puerto-cabello-30-mil-toneladas-de-azucar/la-costa/2017/09/11/1075433/)

 

Oil & Energy

Saudi’s Al Falih discusses oil supply cuts extension with Venezuela, Kazakhstan

A further extension for at least three more months beyond March is now being discussed before OPEC meets again in November. The deal to curb output propelled crude prices above US$ 58 a barrel in January but they have since slipped back to a US$ 50 to US$ 54 range as the effort to drain global inventories has taken longer than expected. “Both countries agreed that the option to extend the voluntary market rebalancing effort, beyond the first quarter of 2018, would be considered in due course as market fundamentals may dictate,” the ministry said in a statement on Al Falih’s meeting with Kazakh Energy Minister Kanat Bozumbayev. Al Falih, who has held his meetings in Astana, also met Venezuelan Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino and both ministers “agreed on the importance of leaving all options open” including the possible extension of the oil output cuts beyond the first quarter of 2018, if needed, according to a separate statement. Del Pino on Friday said global oil inventories remain too high and urged producers to look at exemptions granted to countries such as Libya and Nigeria and the effect of those exemptions on the market. Both ministers discussed oil market developments and how the OPEC-led pact “is improving market stability, contributing to the rebalancing of supply and demand, and drawing down excessive inventories,” the Saudi ministry said. “They both shared an optimistic outlook on market fundamentals in 2018.” (Gulf News: http://gulfnews.com/business/sectors/energy/saudi-s-al-falih-discusses-oil-supply-cuts-extension-with-venezuela-kazakhstan-1.2088370; Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-10/saudi-arabia-venezuela-agree-to-leave-rebalancing-options-open; AVN, http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/venezuela-attends-kazenergy-eurasian-forum-kazakhstan)

 

Congressman Mike Coffman targets oil imports to slow Maduro regime in Venezuela

A House Republican introduced legislation last week to bar the U.S. from importing petroleum products from Venezuela in a push to cripple the growing authoritarian regime here. Rep. Mike Coffman, R-Colo., introduced the Protecting Against Tyranny and Responsible Imports Act, or the PATRIA Act, that would target Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro after he stripped the countries democratically elected national assembly of its power and authority. According to the bill, the proposed ban on imports would last until the assembly's power is fully restored. "The goal is to change the conduct, the character of the Venezuelan government under Maduro. I think the window is closing," Coffman told the Washington Examiner. "They are dependent upon the export of oil really to fund their government, and without that, they can't pay their security forces." The Colorado Republican said passage of his bill is time sensitive given the actions taken by the Maduro regime and the suffering within the country, which he warns could become the next Cuban-style dictatorship. Coffman said he has not discussed the bill with either the White House or congressional leadership yet, but plans to do so soon. He estimates that a ban on importing oil from Venezuela would have a US$ 10 billion impact in lost income on the Venezuelan government. Despite criticisms of the ban and how it could hurt affected Venezuelans, Coffman believes the ban would be much preferred to the continued growth of the Maduro regime. All in all, Coffman is optimistic the PATRIA Act ("patria" is Spanish for "nation") could take hold and harm the regime, but he reiterates that time is of the essence. (The Washington Examiner: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/mike-coffman-targets-oil-imports-to-slow-maduro-regime-in-venezuela/article/2633691)

 

Economy & Finance

Maduro announces 40% increase in minimum wages, which have shrunk 38% this year

President Nicolas Maduro has announced another 40% increase in minimum wages here, the second such increase in two months. This will bring the minimum wage to slightly above US$ 40, if estimated at the highest official foreign exchange rate. However, a report from TORINO Capital indicates that the real minimum wage here has shrunk 38% so far, this year, and says the recent increase remains below its projected 717% inflation scenario for this year. More in Spanish: (Noticiero Venevisión, http://www.noticierovenevision.net/noticias/nacional/presidente-maduro-anuncio-aumento-de-40-del-salario-minimo; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/economia/gobierno-aumento-salario-minimo-integral-325544-bolivares_669170; El Mundo, http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/economia/politicas-publicas/torino-capital-afirma-que-salario-minimo-ha-caido-.aspx#ixzz4sSaamCQO)

 

Maduro regime radicalizes price controls

Claiming that “all prices used today are over 1000% inflated”, President Nicolas Maduro has proposed to again set price controls on over 50 basic products, including powdered and liquid pasteurized milk, margarine, mayonnaise, mortadella, baking wheat, pasta, some fish species, chicken, butter, canned sardines, hard white cheese, ham, soap, and oils. The new regulation incorporates a system of “vigilantes” from local distribution committees. Economist Luis Oliveros says: “The government is radicalizing price controls, that´s the difference from previous experiences.” More in Spanish: (El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/noticias/economia/gobierno-radicaliza-control-precios-con-fiscales-los-clap_202976)

 

New economic measures by Maduro only benefit importers, 'bachaqueros

The economic measures announced by Nicolás Maduro on Thursday night are only aimed at favoring the different mafia organizations controlling various "businesses" being conducted in Venezuela. Among them are food importers and the so-called "bachaqueros," or resellers of foodstuff and other consumer staples at higher prices than those regulated by the Government or previously sold by retailers. Controlling prices is the same recipe they have been using for years without any positive results, because Venezuela’s "socialist" inflation is the highest in the world. Price controls have resulted in shortages. Such shortages are because domestic producers have decided to go out of business for not being cost-effective. Those still in business are struggling to survive trying to meet domestic demand, since they cannot make new investments. This increases the dependency on imports of what the country needs, while shortages is the best way to foster "bachaqueo" activities. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2442991&CategoryId=10717)

 

Venezuela has asked Russia for debt restructuring

Russian Finance Minister Antón Siluánov has announced that Venezuela’s debt with his country is being renegotiated both bilaterally and within the framework of the Paris Club. Last August, Russian opposition leader Alexéi Navalni reported that the Kremlin is financing the Maduro regime and has no intention of recovering US$ 8.8 billion credits it has granted Venezuela. Also, in August Russian state oil giant ROSNEFT advanced US$ 6 billion to Venezuela for oil supplies through 2019. More in Spanish: (El Universal: http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/politica/rusia-negocia-reestructuracion-deuda-con-venezuela_669206)

 

Venezuela bond bull says sanctions may keep Maduro paying

One of the largest holders of Venezuelan bonds says U.S. sanctions are giving Nicolas Maduro’s government greater incentive to pay its debts. The penalties imposed late last month restrict the country’s ability to restructure its obligations, meaning the president’s only option is to keep scraping up enough cash to keep current on overseas notes. Maduro will put off default if possible because it would be catastrophic for the oil industry and ultimately lead to a government collapse, according to Bent Lystbaek, who oversees US$ 3.4 billion in emerging-market debt at Danske Capital. “The willingness to pay is extremely high and now they have further impetus to keep the boat afloat,” Lystbaek said from Lyngby, Denmark. "Default would be the death sentence of Maduro’s administration." Danske Capital is the 19th-largest holder of Venezuelan bonds and 21st-largest holder of PDVSA debt as of June 30, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Here’s what else Lystbaek had to say about Venezuelan politics and investment opportunities: “I don’t think Maduro could survive a default. It would be very, very hard to export oil. Oil cargoes could be seized. Import compression is already substantial and they couldn’t import anything then. Social unrest would increase dramatically and I think that would be the end game.” “Now, they will turn to the Chinese and Russians to muddle through. I don’t think they even consider the alternative. The consequences of a default are devastating.” That said, “I don’t think they have a long-term chance. The Chavistas are just living from one day to the next. It cannot go on forever and the end day is moving closer and closer.” How would regime change impact bondholders? “If there was a regime shift, the opposition would go for a restructuring and they could be successful and strike a deal. There’d be a radical shift in policy: they’d invite the IMF and it would all be very, very positiveWe could envisage a benign debt restructuring characterized by high recovery rates substantially above the levels where low coupon, longer-dated PDVSA bonds are trading today at 30 cents per dollar In the case of a default, there will be a relatively swift transition of power and a pretty swift debt restructuring along the lines of what we saw in Ukraine in 2015.” Still, “there’s a risk that at a later stage when free elections have been held and the opposition regains power, they’ll say the loans weren’t legal and we annul all deals done with the Russians and Chinese.” (Bloomberg:  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-11/venezuela-bond-bull-says-sanctions-may-keep-maduro-paying-debt)

 

For Venezuela’s true believers, the ultimate risky bet beckons

For years, investors in Venezuela and its state oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela SA, took comfort knowing that in the event of a default, there’d be assets they could potentially seize to recoup some of their losses. But for bond buyers with an even bigger appetite for risk, those willing to throw themselves at the mercy of President Nicolas Maduro’s survival and track record of making good on debt payments, there’s another option: Electricidad de Caracas, the state-run electric utility. The company’s US$ 650 million of bonds coming due in April trade at just 67 cents on the dollar with a whopping 96% yield, making them the riskiest notes maturing over the next year in the world’s riskiest nation. And with good reason. In the event of default, PDVSA bondholders, and possibly even owners of Venezuela’s sovereign debt, could lay claim to the crude producer’s oil, tankers and U.S. refining unit. But ELECAR, which PDVSA bought a decade ago, has nothing for overseas investors to seize. (Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-08/for-venezuela-s-true-believers-the-ultimate-risky-bet-beckons)

 

Venezuela crisis raises talk of ‘odious debt’ doctrine

An archaic, often-mentioned but never-invoked legal doctrine called “odious debt” could get tested for the first time in history in Venezuela should the current regime be ousted from power. The concept of ‘odious debt’ has gained in prominence and been called a doctrine despite never being enshrined in any sovereign or international law, or having been in practice invoked by any country restructuring its debts after the previous regime has been ousted. But some legal experts think that the move by Venezuela’s government led by Nicolás Maduro to scrap its National Assembly for a more supine Constituent Assembly this summer, followed by the US government unveiling sanctions on the country, could open an unusually fertile environment for the legal gambit. If the current regime is ousted, a new government could invoke odious debt as an excuse to refuse to recognize any new loans incurred by the Constituent Assembly. Given Venezuela’s lack of market access that would probably primarily affect any new loans extended by the likes of China or Russia, not existing bondholders. (Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/fa6850cc-96c3-11e7-b83c-9588e51488a0)

 

OP-ED: Venezuela is about to ditch the dollar

President Nicolas Maduro said Thursday that Venezuela will be looking to “free” itself from the U.S. dollar next week. He will look to use the weakest of two official foreign exchange regimes (essentially the way Venezuela will manage its currency in relation to other currencies and the foreign exchange market), along with a basket of currencies. Maduro was referring to Venezuela’s current official exchange rate, known as DICOM, in which the dollar can be exchanged for 3,345 bolivars. At the strongest official rate, one dollar buys only 10 bolivars, which may be one of the reasons why Maduro wants to opt for some of the weaker exchange rates. He hinted that the country would look to using the yuan instead, among other currencies. “If they persecute us with the dollar, we’ll use the Russian ruble, the yuan, yen, the Indian rupee, the euro,” Maduro also said. (Lew Rockwell: https://www.lewrockwell.com/2017/09/no_author/venezuela-ditch-dollar/)

 

Politics and International Affairs

France says Venezuela talks to take place Wednesday, warns of sanctions

Venezuela’s government and opposition will hold a round of talks in the Dominican Republic tomorrow, France’s foreign minister said today, warning Caracas’s leadership that it risked EU sanctions if it failed to engage in negotiations. “I was happy to learn that dialogue with the opposition would restart tomorrow in the Dominican Republic,” Jean-Yves Le Drian said in a statement after meeting his Venezuelan opposite number, Jorge Arreaza Montserrat in Paris. He said the meeting would be under the auspices of Dominican President Danilo Medina and former Spanish prime minister José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero. Maduro routinely calls for dialogue with the opposition, but his adversaries see dialogue as a stalling mechanism that burnishes the government’s image without producing concrete results. A dialogue process backed by the Vatican in 2016 did little to advance opposition demands, which include release of political prisoners and respect for the opposition-run congress. Many Maduro critics believe opposition leaders were duped in that dialogue process, and have grown suspicious of former Zapatero as an intermediary. “This (dialogue) is good news and I hope that it will rapidly lead to concrete steps on the ground.” Le Drian said. Like fellow-EU member Spain a few days earlier, Le Drian also warned that if the situation continued there would be consequences. “I reminded him of the risk of European sanctions and the need to rapidly see evidence from Venezuela that it is ready to relaunch negotiations with the opposition and engage in a sincere and credible process.” (Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-sanctions-treasury/treasurys-mnuchin-china-may-face-new-sanctions-on-north-korea-idUSKCN1BN1P1; The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/09/12/world/europe/12reuters-venezuela-politics-france.html)

                                         

Venezuela sets Oct. 15 for regional vote favoring opposition

Venezuela’s government has set a date for long-delayed gubernatorial elections that the opposition is heavily favored to win. Electoral authorities say voting in all 23 states will take place Oct. 15. Monday’s announcement came a day after the main opposition alliance held primaries to select candidates to run against some of socialist President Nicolas Maduro’s closest allies. Francisco Castro, chairman of the Primaries Commission within the Democratic Unity opposition alliance said the primaries were “massively” attended “by hundreds of thousands of citizens”. Legislator Henry Ramos Allup said that participation in the primaries being to select single candidates for the gubernatorial elections next month is “above expectations.” The decision to participate in the elections had sparked tensions within the opposition since the government seated a special assembly to rewrite Venezuela’s constitution amid allegations that the elections to choose delegates were marked by fraud. The gubernatorial elections were supposed to have taken place last year but were scrapped as the country’s economic problems mounted and polls indicated Venezuelans heavily favored removing Maduro before the end of his term. (The Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/venezuela-sets-oct-15-for-regional-vote-favoring-opposition/2017/09/11/42f958a4-9764-11e7-af6a-6555caaeb8dc_story.html; Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2443067&CategoryId=10717; and more in Spanish: Noticiero Venevisión, http://www.noticierovenevision.net/noticias/politica/elecciones-de-gobernadores-se-realizaran-el-15-de-octubre; http://www.noticierovenevision.net/noticias/politica/oposicion-venezolana-voto-en-primarias-sin-incidentes-ni-aglomeraciones; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/politica/cne-fija-elecciones-gobernadores-para-octubre_669719; http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/politica/oposicion-anuncia-candidatos-entidades_669550; Agencia Venezolana de Noticias; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/comicios-regionales-ser%C3%A1n-15-octubre; El Mundo, http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/actualidad/politica/elecciones-de-gobernadores-se-realizaran-el-15-de-.aspx; El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/noticias/oposicion/mud-anuncio-los-nombres-los-candidatos-las-regionales_203013)

 

U.N. rights boss sees possible "crimes against humanity" in Venezuela

The United Nations human rights chief said on Monday that Venezuelan security forces may have committed crimes against humanity against protesters and called for an international investigation. “My investigation suggests the possibility that crimes against humanity may have been committed, which can only be confirmed by a subsequent criminal investigation,” Zeid Ra‘ad al Hussein told the U.N. Human Rights Council. He said the government was using criminal proceedings against opposition leaders, arbitrary detentions, excessive use of force and ill-treatment of detainees, in some cases amounting to torture. However, Venezuela’s Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza dismissed the allegations as "baseless" and demanded that Mr Zeid "cease his aggression against Venezuela". He also said that the report by the UN Office for Human Rights was "riddled with lies". He accused protesters of using firearms and “home-made weapons” against security forces, but noted that the last death was on July 30. “Our country is now at peace,” he added. Diego Arria, who was Venezuela’s ambassador to the United Nations in New York from 1991 to 1994, told a separate Geneva event organized by activists and action group UN Watch that Venezuela should be referred to the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court. “I am convinced that the killing in the streets equates to crimes against humanity,” he said. The Hague-based court defines such crimes as including torture, murder, deprivation of liberty, sexual violence and persecution, he said. (Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-un/u-n-rights-boss-sees-possible-crimes-against-humanity-in-venezuela-idUSKCN1BM0UI; BBC News: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-41227441; Al Jazeera: http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/venezuela-warns-crimes-humanity-170911210836001.html)

 

OAS begins hearings this week on crimes against humanity in Venezuela

The OAS will begin hearings this week to determine whether the Venezuelan regime has committed “crimes against humanity”, and whether there is any basis to take the case to the International Criminal Court. The hearings will be run by former ICC Prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo, who has been specially appointed by OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro, Hearings have been scheduled with NGO and Armed Forces representatives.  More in Spanish. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/politica/oea-inicia-jueves-audiencias-por-crimenes-lesa-humanidad-venezuela_669711)

 

Pope Francis: United Nations must help in Venezuela crisis

Aboard his overnight flight from Colombia to Rome Sunday, Pope Francis touched on the dire political and human rights crisis that continues to unfold in Venezuela, stating that the U.N. needs to be involved in reaching a solution. “It seems that it's a very hard thing, and the most painful is the humanitarian problem, the many people who escape or suffer...we must help to resolve it in any way (possible). I think the U.N. must also make itself felt there to help,” the Pope said Sept. 10. “I think that the Holy See has spoken strongly and clearly,” he said, also mentioning the many times he has spoken about the situation in Venezuela during his Angelus addresses. Journalists also asked Pope Francis about President Nicolás Maduro’s conflicting rhetoric, in particular his claim to be “with” Pope Francis, while at the same time speaking out violently against the bishops. About this, Francis replied: “What President Maduro says, he can explain. I don't know what he has in his mind…” The Pope also mentioned the extensive work of the Holy See to promote dialogue in the country, including the agreement to send a group of four ex-presidents as facilitators in a meeting between the Venezuelan government and the opposition Oct. 30, 2016.  The group was made up of former Colombian president Ernesto Samper Pizano, the secretary general of UNASUR (the Union of South American Nations); José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero of Spain; Martín Torrijos of Panama; and Leonel Fernández of the Dominican Republic. The Vatican also sent Archbishop Claudio Maria Celli to participate as a nuncio of the Holy See. Pope Francis said that after “speaking with the people,” the Holy See has also spoken to Venezuela in a private manner, possibly referring to a private meeting that occurred between him and President Maduro at the Vatican last October. The country was on Pope Francis' mind throughout his visit to Colombia, beginning with the flight over the nation. As his plane took off for Bogota, he greeted journalists, telling them they were going to fly over Venezuela and asking them “to pray so there can be dialogue, that there will be stability, with dialogue with everyone.” He also met briefly with five bishops from Venezuela present in Colombia for his visit, welcoming them to the sacristy after celebrating Mass in Bogota Sept. 7. Among the prelates Francis met were Cardenal Jorge Urosa, Archbishop of Caracas; Cardenal Baltazar Porras, Archbishop of Mérida; Jesús González de Zárate, Auxiliary Bishop of Caracas; Bishop Mario Moronta of San Cristóbal; and Bishop José Luis Azuaje of Barinas, who is also President of the Latin American branch of CÁRITAS. (Angelus News: http://angelusnews.com/articles/pope-francis-united-nations-must-help-in-venezuela-crisis)

 

The Economist Intelligence Unit Country Report: Venezuela, August 2017

The results of the July 30th election and the events in the subsequent days have prompted a revision to our baseline forecast scenario. We had previously expected the government to hold the December 2018 presidential election as scheduled, under growing pressure from the international community, with the opposition well-placed to win power. However, we no longer believe that this will occur. Maduro seems little concerned about the ever more damning criticism from the international community, with even the veiled threat of US economic sanctions proving no deterrent to the president's plans for constitutional reform and consolidation of power. We no longer believe that he will feel pressured into holding an election that he risks losing. However, we do not expect that he will manage to cling to power for our entire 2017-21 forecast period, on the basis that international oil prices are not expected to rise to such a level to provide the funds to ease chronic consumer goods shortages. We therefore believe that a transition involving the opposition is likely. Given the highly volatile political situation, accurately forecasting when and how this will occur is challenging. We believe that there are two main ways in which a transition of power might play out. The most likely scenario (to which we attach a 60% probability) involves Maduro muddling through for the remainder of 2017 and much of 2018, running down reserves to pay external debt repayments, but being unable to avoid a debt default later in 2018 or in 2019. This would be likely to bring about Maduro's demise, as his allies in government and the military would be hit financially, and remaining popular support from his constituents (chiefly the poor and public-sector workers) would fade owing to heightened economic hardship. At the same time, Maduro's ability to muddle through until 2019 will be limited, and we view the main risk to our newly revised, baseline forecast to be a military coup at some point during the remainder of 2017 or in 2018, prompted by a worsening of the economic and humanitarian crisis. We believe that there is a 40% risk of this occurring. (FULL REPORT ATTACHED)

 

OP-ED: China, Russia increase leverage in Venezuela amid crisis, by Evan Ellis

The most important question regarding the unfolding crisis in Venezuela is not whether U.S. sanctions and international pressures will force its populist regime to restore democracy. That will not happen anytime soon. Rather, it is whether the Venezuelan regime will be able to successfully transition power to a more rationally managed authoritarian government, backed by Russian and Chinese resources, that protects those who have systematically looted the country, while providing a sufficient façade of democratic process and compromise that a weary and distracted international community lends it legitimacy. As the crisis in Venezuela has deepened, Russia and China have leveraged the Maduro regime’s growing international isolation, financial needs, and political receptivity, to increasingly control the country’s finances, oil, and markets. While Russian and Chinese companies in fact compete in Venezuela in these areas, their strategic and business interests arguably coincide in the survival of an anti-U.S. regime near the U.S., granting its benefactors privileged access to the country and its petroleum and mineral wealth. Of the two extra-hemispheric actors, it is the PRC which holds the greatest leverage over the fate of the Venezuelan regime, particularly as its access to conventional financial markets and oil sales are reduced by U.S. sanctions. The PRC has the money to lend, and indeed has already lent an estimated US$ 60.2 billion to the regime during the past decade. In addition, the PRC controls the financial instruments in Venezuela key to the regime’s survival. China’s CITIC bank currently manages PDVSA’s current accounts for its oil transactions, after the latter moved them from Portugal’s Banco Espiritu Santo (BES), probably to protect those accounts from claimants in lawsuits against the company. More importantly, China Development Bank manages the principal lines of credit for Venezuela’s “loans-for-oil” contracts, and thus controls the regime’s main vehicle for obtaining consumer goods for its supporters, and resources for building the petroleum, electricity, and transport infrastructure that the regime requires to bring the considerable deposits of heavy oil in the Orinoco tar belt and bring it to market, to pay its bills. During a recent meeting of the China-Venezuela High-Level Mixed Commission, the two nations signed 22 agreements involving US$ 2.7 billion in projects, including construction of the Jienyang refinery to process Venezuelan heavy oil in the PRC. While the PRC has been in talks with individual members of the Venezuelan opposition, China neither needs to turn against the current Venezuelan regime, and indeed, it is strongly in its interest not to do so. Because most Chinese loans to Venezuela over the past decade have been short-term and repaid on time, and because China has become stingier with credit as the Venezuelan crisis has deepened, its outstanding debt exposure in Venezuela may be as little as US$ 10-20 billion, hardly worth risking its relationship with a strategically useful regime sitting on top of 300 billion barrels of recoverable oil. Moreover, the recent successful seating of the Venezuelan constituent assembly raises the possibility that the regime could reform the constitution, permitting it to hand over even greater portions of Venezuela’s oilfields and other assets, in return for needed cash. Like China, Russia will also continue to support the Maduro regime or its replacement, for the same reasons as the PRC will, albeit with more limited resources and fewer financial and commercial instruments for doing so. In the oil sector, while the more commercially-oriented Russian oil firms such as LUKOIL have long-since pulled out of Venezuela, the state-owned firm ROSNEFT, led by former Russian senior intelligence operative and sometimes Putin ally Igor Sechin, has sunk an estimated US$ 6 billion into the country since 2010, including over US$ 1 billion in 2017 alone. As other companies have pulled out of Venezuela, ROSNEFT has negotiated to leverage Venezuela’s need for cash to gain expanded stakes in oil joint ventures such as PETROMONOGAS, PETROVICTORIA, and PETROMIRANDA. As the situation in Venezuela deteriorates, both Russia and China both have a strong interest in providing resources to ensure the continuation of a friendly, anti-U.S. regime in Caracas, but their resources are not infinite. In addition, each must move cautiously to avoid that the United States perceive hostile intent in their maneuverings in Venezuela, and attempt to block them. Moreover, both extra-hemispheric actors must use their leverage to advance a transition of power in the country toward a leadership at least minimally capable of managing the Venezuelan economy and oil sector in a sustainable fashion. Yet they must not pressure the regime so hard that it collapses, and the transition must give a sufficient appearance of legitimacy and legality so that the U.S. and international community accepts the domination over Venezuelan assets that Russia and China achieve. The U.S. is right to impose escalating sanctions on Venezuela, yet as they do so, they must also deny Russia and China from leveraging their position as an alternative source of capital and support, to expand their own positions in the country. One of the few worse problems than a hostile, unstable Venezuelan regime flirting with Russia and China, is a hostile, stable one economically and politically dominated by them. (NEWSMAX: https://www.newsmax.com/EvanEllis/venezuela-crisis-china-russia/2017/09/07/id/812212/)

 

Maduro makes whirlwind visit to the Middle East

President Nicolas Maduro arrived Saturday night in Kazakhstan’s capital of Astana, to attend an Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) summit, trying to end to his regime’s diplomatic isolation, strengthen its financial independence and avoid Venezuela’s possible economic collapse due to a new round of US sanctions targeting his government-issued bonds. He met with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan. On Sunday night, he stopped in Algiers for a 24-hour visit on his way back from Astana, but it was not clear whether he met with his 80-year old counterpart Abdelaziz Bouteflika, and has now been reported to be back in Caracas. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2443064&CategoryId=10717); and more in Spanish:  (Noticiero Venevisión, http://www.noticierovenevision.net/noticias/internacional/presidente-maduro-y-lideres-turcos-evaluaron-relaciones-bilaterales;  El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/politica/nicolas-maduro-llega-argelia-para-visita-horas_669549; Agencia Venezolana de Noticias; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/presidente-maduro-regresa-venezuela-luego-gira-internacional-diplomacia-paz; El Mundo, http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/actualidad/noticias/presidente-maduro-finalizo-visita-oficial-en-argel.aspx)

 

Britain’s Theresa May meets with Venezuelan democratic leaders

British Prime Minister Theresa May has met with the President of Venezuela’s National Assembly, Julio Borges, who is on a tour of Europe to present this nation’s political and humanitarian crisis.

May welcomed Borges and expressed “firm support for democracy and human rights in Venezuela”, the legislator reported. More in Spanish: (Noticiero Venevisión, http://www.noticierovenevision.net/noticias/politica/primera-ministra-de-inglaterra-se-reunio-con-julio-borges)

 

Venezuela is aiding Cuba, Antigua and Barbuda after hurricane Irma

President Nicolas Maduro has ordered his government to prepare an assistance plan for Cuba following damages caused by hurricane Irma. Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza also announced that Venezuela is sending humanitarian aid, supplies and medication to Antigua and Barbuda. He said two Venezuelan aircraft would participate, and seek material from other nations. 34 rescue specialist will be sent, with medical and paramedical teams. More in Spanish:  (Noticiero Venevisión, http://www.noticierovenevision.net/noticias/internacional/venezuela-envia-ayuda-humanitaria-a-antigua-y-barbuda-tras-paso-de-irma; Agencia Venezolana de Noticias; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/venezuela-env%C3%ADa-ayuda-humanitaria-antigua-y-barbuda; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/politica/venezuela-envio-ayuda-humanitaria-antigua-barbuda_669135; El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/noticias/gobierno/gobierno-venezolano-prepara-plan-apoyo-para-cuba-tras-paso-irma_202987)

 

ODEBRECHT denies paying Venezuela politician US$ 100 million

Scandal-hit Brazilian construction company ODEBRECHT denied accusations it paid US$ 100 million to Venezuelan Socialist Party Vice President Diosdado Cabello, as alleged by the country’s fugitive chief prosecutor. In a statement, the company said: "After conducting a comprehensive search of its legacy systems and of the statements given by its former team members who collaborated in (investigations), Odebrecht denies the accusations that it made a $100 million payment to ... Cabello." Chief Prosecutor Luisa Ortega had said the payment was made through Spanish company TSE ARIETIS. ODEBRECHT denied payments to the company. (Reu https://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL2N1LO0UPters)

 

11 died in shootout with soldiers in Venezuela's southeast

Eleven people died in an exchange of gunfire with soldiers in Venezuela's southeast, where criminal gangs dispute control of gold mines, the national prosecutor's office said on Monday. The gunfight occurred on Sunday in the town of Tumeremo when a patrol following up reports of an "armed organization" in the area were "surprised by a group of unidentified individuals," the office said in a statement. The violence followed a similar confrontation on August 14 between a suspected gang and a mixed patrol of soldiers and police, in the nearby town of El Callao. Eight people died in that incident. The region has a reputation for lawlessness and violence, fueled by the mining and trading in gold. (AFP: https://sg.news.yahoo.com/11-die-shootout-soldiers-venezuelas-southeast-234116466.html)

 

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.