Oil & Energy
Squeezed by sanctions, Venezuela sells oil to
tiny Turkish firm
With U.S. sanctions
blocking Venezuela from selling oil to the United States, state-owned energy
firm PDVSA has turned to several little-known buyers that include a tiny
Turkish company with no refineries but ties to Nicolas Maduro’s regime. U.S.
sanctions have driven away many customers. PDVSA’s exports have slumped by more
than a fifth since sanctions were imposed. Its biggest buyers today are Chinese
and Indian companies. Directors at a March 14 meeting of Maduro’s PDVSA board
temporarily waived some requirements for new customers or suppliers, including
that of having at least two years’ experience in the oil industry. In the wake
of the changes, a Turkish company called Grupo IVEEX INSAAT started buying
Venezuelan oil in April. Istanbul Chamber of Commerce records show that IVEEX
INSAAT was formed less than a year ago with capital of just US$ 1,775 and
listed “residential construction” as its main activity. It was one of
only five firms that loaded tankers to take Venezuela’s upgraded crude - among
its most valuable oil - from April through June, the documents showed. IVEEX
loaded four cargoes of Venezuelan crude and products in April - equivalent to
just under 8% of Venezuela’s oil exports - and nothing in May or June,
according to PDVSA documents. Turkish corporate records show IVEEX INSAAT is
owned by Miguel Silva, a Venezuelan businessman who heads the Caracas-based
Venezuelan Exporters’ Chamber and served as a housing ministry commissioner in
Maduro’s administration. Silva registered IVEEX INSAAT with a Turkish partner
named Erhan Kap, an Istanbul tour guide, on Sept. 27, 2018, just a week after
Maduro visited Istanbul. IVEEX reportedly has agreed to deliver refined
products to Venezuela in exchange for receiving crude. With its refinery
network crippled by maintenance issues, the OPEC nation has struggled with
severe fuel shortages in recent months. The two other companies that only began
chartering tankers to take PDVSA’s oil after sanctions hit are Panama-registered
MELAJ Offshore Corp and Sahara Energy, a unit of Nigeria-based Sahara Group.
The two loaded PDVSA oil cargoes shortly after the sanctions were announced. (REUTERS:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-oil-turkey/squeezed-by-sanctions-venezuela-sells-oil-to-tiny-turkish-firm-idUSKCN1U324M)
OPEC wants quick resolution to tensions between
US and Iran, Venezuela
OPEC has asked on
Monday for a timely settlement to the tensions that have flared up between the
United States and Iran and Venezuela. Iran and Venezuela, both founding members
of OPEC, are both exempt once again from the production cut extensions that the
cartel announced last week and will remain exempt for as long as they remain
under sanction. Both Iran’s and Venezuela’s production woes have contributed
significantly to the cartel’s over compliance to the group’s production cut
quota, with Iran’s crude production falling from an average of 3.813 million
barrels per day in 2017 to 2.370 million barrels per day in May 2019, and
Venezuela’s crude production falling from 1.911 million bpd on average in 2017,
to an abysmal 741,000 bpd in May 2019. But while the two countries combined
seemingly did OPEC a favor by taking more than 2.6 million barrels of crude oil
per day out of the market within that time frame, the tensions in the Persian
Gulf and the dire situation in Venezuela are creating a market that OPEC is
finding it difficult to both predict and manage. (Oil Price: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPEC-Wants-Quick-Resolution-To-Tensions-Between-US-And-Iran-Venezuela.html)
Amuay and Cardon refineries halted by blackout
Venezuela’s Amuay and
Cardon refineries are halted following a blackout in the early morning hours,
two oil industry sources with knowledge of the issue said on Sunday. The twin
refineries together form the 955,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) Paraguana Refining
Center, which has been operating well below capacity for years because of
chronic operational problems that have been aggravated by Venezuela’s economic
crisis. “Blackout in both refineries,” one employee who works in the
complex wrote in a text message. “It’s going to be difficult to get the
system back up.” (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/refinery-operations-pdvsa-amuay/update-1-venezuelas-amuay-and-cardon-refineries-halted-by-blackout-sources-idUSL2N24802S)
CHEVRON is playing a long game in Venezuela’s oil
fields
Donald Trump may have
slammed Venezuela with sanctions in an effort to change the regime of President
Nicolás Maduro, but the country’s energy industry has an unlikely ally: CHEVRON
Corp. Despite the U.S. administration’s push to disrupt the financial resources
available to Venezuela’s leadership, the second-biggest U.S. oil company is
working to bolster one of the Maduro government’s chief economic pillars—its
ability to produce crude oil. CHEVRON is helping tap four fields in the country
while testing new injection technologies to maximize production in one. CHEVRON
is also helping pay for supplies, expenses, and even health care for workers at
state-owned oil producer PDVSA to keep the crude flowing. CHEVRON’s actions are
an attempt to play the long game in economically ravaged Venezuela. If Maduro
retains power, CHEVRON will keep its tenuous—but still profitable—foothold in
Venezuela. If he’s forced out and U.S. sanctions end, the company could be
first in line to gain from the country’s vast geologic riches. The gamble puts CHEVRON
in the same group as state-controlled producers from Russia and China that have
been supportive of the Maduro regime—and potentially at odds with its home
country. The company is working under a Department of the Treasury waiver of
U.S. sanctions against Venezuela that expires on July 27. A decision by the
U.S. government not to renew the waiver could cripple the production of more
than 200,000 barrels a day at the four projects Chevron is keeping afloat, even
though most of that production goes to PDVSA. And it could lead Maduro to hand CHEVRON’s
stakes in these fields to other explorers. Positioning itself to outlast Maduro won’t be
easy. Last year two Chevron employees were arrested and held for seven weeks
for reasons neither the government nor the company disclosed. Still, the oil
producer continues to work with the government to keep its operation intact. That
could mean braving Trump administration pressure and weathering the worsening
humanitarian crisis, but the payoff might be worth the risks. “Whatever
government that is coming in will be dealing with very diverse issues and doing
it with very little cash in the bank, and that presents a unique opportunity,”
says Schreiner Parker, vice president for Latin America at consulting firm RYSTAD
Energy. “In the medium to long term with regime change, we believe Venezuela
will become very investor-friendly, out of necessity more than anything.”
(Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-09/chevron-is-playing-a-long-game-in-venezuela-s-oil-fields)
Economy & Finance
JP Morgan to cut Venezuela weight to zero in
key indexes over five months
JP Morgan will reduce the weight of Venezuela's
sovereign and PDVSA bonds to zero in its widely tracked indexes, the bank said
on Tuesday, phasing them out over five months starting on July 31. Venezuela's
weight was 0.5%, 0.9% and 1.2% in the EMBI Global Diversified, EMBI Global and
EMBI+ indices, respectively, it added. As a result of dialing down the weighting,
JP Morgan said the headline EMBIGD yield and spread were estimated to compress
by about 45 basis points. JP Morgan said it could open another index watch
process in "the event of any favorable official guidance around easing
of trading restrictions or consistent, observable improvements in liquidity and
replicability of Venezuela bonds." (NASDAQ: https://www.nasdaq.com/article/jp-morgan-to-cut-venezuela-weight-to-zero-in-key-indexes-over-five-months-20190709-00584)
Maduro regime says U.S. sanctions hit debt
refinancing, oil sales
Nicolas Maduro’s Vice foreign minister William
Castillo also Venezuela charged on Friday that U.S.-led sanctions had stopped
foreign debt refinancing, blocked vital food and medicine imports, and cost billions
of dollars in lost oil assets. Maduro’s government says Venezuela is the victim
of a U.S. plot to topple him, eradicate socialism and hand the world’s largest
oil reserves to multinationals. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-un/venezuela-says-u-s-sanctions-hit-debt-refinancing-oil-sales-idUSKCN1U014B)
Bitcoin trading activity goes ballistic in
Venezuela as rule of law erodes
The worse the political, social, and economic
conditions in Venezuela get, the more that residents suffering under the Maduro
regime pile into Bitcoin. According to Coin Dance, more than 47 billion
Venezuela bolivars were traded against Bitcoin in the first week of July. This
broke a previous record that had been set in mid-June. While the rising amounts
of bolivars being spent on buying Bitcoin could be attributed to the fact that
the Venezuelan currency is perpetually weakening, it also coincides with the
price of the flagship cryptocurrency appreciating considerably in the last
couple of weeks. As of April, the inflation rate in Venezuela was estimated to
have hit 1,300,000%. Mid last month, the country announced a 50,000-bolivar
bill designed to ease business transactions. Maduro will have released new
banknotes for the second time in less than a year. Still, Venezuela ranks among
the top 30 countries whose national currencies are the most traded for Bitcoin,
according to Coinhills. While BTC/VES volumes have been on a steady increase
since the beginning of 2018, Venezuela now has a national cryptocurrency, the Petro,
which is competing for attention with Bitcoin. With Venezuelans already
witnesses to how government-issued money can quickly lose its purchasing power
in the face of hyperinflation, this move will only be beneficial to Bitcoin: The
Maduro regime may be force-feeding the Petro on the people, but that will
likely just serve as a gateway drug to Bitcoin. (CCN: https://www.ccn.com/crypto/bitcoin-trading-volume-venezuela/2019/07/08/)
Politics and International Affairs
Guaido announces fresh talks with Maduro regime
Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido on
Sunday announced fresh talks with the government of President Nicolas Maduro. Guaido,
who became acting president earlier this year, said the Norway-brokered talks
aim "to establish a negotiation on the end of the dictatorship,"
referring to Maduro's regime. "The Venezuelan people, our allies and
the world's democracies recognize the need for a truly free and transparent
electoral process that will allow us to surpass the crisis and build a
productive future," he said. Guaido is hoping the negotiations
eventually lead to Maduro stepping down and "free elections with
international observers." In May, delegations representing both
parties met in Oslo under Norwegian mediation. However, the talks have yet to
provide a path forward for the political impasse here. But Venezuela's
opposition is wary of talks with Maduro's regime. Previous attempts to end the
country's political crisis have failed, with critics saying they have only
served to further solidify his rule. Norway which hosted the preliminary talks
and is mediating the protracted process says the aim of the upcoming round of
discussions in Barbados, is to move further forward towards a constitutional settlement.
The opposition led by Juan Guaido wants a transitional government to replace
the regime of Nicolas Maduro, and then free elections monitored by
international observers. Guaido insists he`s the legitimate Interim President,
recognized by more than fifty nations all around the world. While Maduro states he`s the democratically
elected President. (DW: https://www.dw.com/en/venezuelas-guaido-announces-fresh-talks-with-maduro-regime/a-49507748; Vatican News: https://www.vaticannews.va/en/world/news/2019-07/venezuela-cardinal-government-opposition-dialogue.html; Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics/venezuela-opposition-says-it-will-meet-maduro-envoys-in-norway-mediated-talks-idUSKCN1U20TF;
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-norway/venezuela-talks-to-resume-this-week-norway-idUSKCN1U30GU)
Barbados welcomes being the site for talks as
CARICOM leverages ties with Caracas
Barbados Prime Minister Mia Amor Mottley Monday
welcomed plans by both sides to hold talks in Barbados. “Since January, the government
of Barbados along with other CARICOM governments has made it clear that the
time for dialogue is never over. As a zone of peace, we will want to see a very
peaceful resolution to the problems in Venezuela,” Mottley told reporters. Caribbean
Community (CARICOM) leaders who have in the past adopted a position of
non-interference and non-intervention in the affairs of this country, last week
re-affirmed that position during their annual summit held in St. Lucia. Mottley
made it clear that apart from hosting the meeting, Barbados will be playing no
major role in the discussions. “This is a matter that requires the utmost
patience, so it is not something that you should be asking me or anybody about
on a daily basis, let the people talk. When you have deep divisions, it takes
time and I have every confidence in the government of Norway being able to do
what CARICOM has wanted done since January,” she said. Caribbean nations
that used to rely on cheap Venezuelan oil are now hoping to leverage their ties
with Caracas to help broker a negotiated settlement to the political crisis
there. "This issue is one for the Venezuelans to work out,"
Trinidad´s prime minister Keith Rowley said. Norway's prime minister Erna
Solberg was a guest at the CARICOM summit, and the group is playing the role of
an honest broker in the Venezuelan crisis, St. Kitts-Nevis prime minister
Timothy Harris said. (Caribbean Broadasting Corporation: http://www.cbc.bb/wordpress/2019/07/09/pm-pleased-with-plans-for-negotiations-to-end-venezuela-crisis/; Argus Media: https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/1935802-caribbean-sets-stage-for-thorny-venezuela-talks)
Maduro 'optimistic' as crisis talks
resume
Nicolás Maduro said he was "optimistic"
as talks between his regime and the opposition to resolve the country's
political crisis resumed on Monday. Preliminary talks held in May in Oslo
petered out without an agreement. Maduro said a six-point agenda was being
discussed at the meeting which is being hosted by Barbados. He did not give
further details. The Norwegian foreign ministry is again acting as a mediator,
as it did at the previous meeting in Oslo, but has so far only commented to
confirm the meeting was taking place. Maduro revealed that Monday's meeting
lasted five hours. He also said he thought "a path to peace"
could be found. Just a week ago Guaidó ruled out a return to negotiations,
citing as a reason the death in custody of an army captain whose body showed
signs of torture. Guaidó has not said why his stance has changed. Some in the
opposition say the talks are a ruse by the government to buy itself more time
in power. On Friday Maduro said he doesn’t think it necessary to hold
presidential elections in the country right now. "What does the people
of Venezuela need today? Elections? I don’t think so," he told
journalists. "The people of Venezuela needs economic revival, peace and
constitutional stability. And it is necessary to reelect the National Assembly
for that," he said. "The opposition wants no elections,"
he said. "If we say elections will be held in 30 days, they will begin
inventing reasons to dodge them." (BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-48904193; TASS: https://tass.com/world/1043923)
Venezuela's rule of law has crumbled under
Maduro, international legal group reports
The rule of law has crumbled in Venezuela under
the regime of Nicolas Maduro which has usurped the powers of the legislative
and judicial branches, an international legal watchdog said on Monday. The
International Commission of Jurists (ICJ) called on Venezuelan authorities to
reinstate democratic institutions as part of a solution to the political,
economic and humanitarian crisis engulfing the OPEC member. The government and
a compliant Supreme Court effectively stripped the National Assembly of most
powers after the opposition won a majority in 2015 elections. Lawmakers loyal
to Maduro generally do not attend the sessions but go to meetings of the
Constituent Assembly, a legislative body that meets in the same building. The
Constituent Assembly, created in a 2017 election boycotted by the opposition,
is controlled by the ruling Socialist Party and its powers supersede the
National Assembly. Sam Zarifi, ICJ secretary-general, presented its latest
report on Venezuela: “No Room for Debate”. “The focus of this report
is on the usurpation of the authority of the legislative by the government in
Venezuela. This comes after the judiciary was taken over,” he told a news
briefing. The Constituent Assembly was “formed improperly and illegitimately”
and has gone far beyond its stated role, Zarifi said, adding: “In fact it
seemed to do everything but really discuss a new Constitution”. “Addressing the problem of the National
Constituent Assembly is a crucial step in any political solution to the crisis
that has gripped Venezuela,” ICJ’s Zarifi said, urging the government to
engage with the opposition-led legislature. (NBC News: https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/venezuela-crisis/venezuela-s-rule-law-has-crumbled-under-maduro-international-legal-n1027406)
Poll shows 64,6% of Venezuelans would vote in any
new presidential election
A recent poll by the Catholic University’s Center
for Political Studies and Government, along with DELPHOS, shows that 64.6% of
Venezuelans are willing to vote if new presidential elections are called; and
the number goes up to 70.2% if Nocolás Maduro resigns and stays out of the
process, the National Elections Council is changed and there are international
observers. An opposition candidate would get 67% of all votes (12.9 million) and
a regime candidate would receive 33% (6.3 million). Another 15.1% of those
polled indicated they might vote. More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/politica/44895/646-de-los-venezolanos-votarian-en-elecciones-presidenciales)
Venezuelans deserve
better life, free from fear, UN Human Rights Chief says
The United Nations High Commissioner for Human
Rights said on Friday that Venezuelans deserve a better life that is free from
fear and whereby they have access to food, water and health services during the
presentation of her report on Venezuela before the Human Rights Council. “The
fate of more than 30 million Venezuelans rests on the leadership’s willingness
and ability to put the human rights of the people ahead of any personal,
ideological or political ambitions,” Michelle Bachelet said during
presentation of her report in Geneva. The report accuses the Nicolas Maduro
regime of grave human rights violations and documents, among other serious
incidents, more than 6,800 extra-judicial killings by the Venezuelan armed
forces between January 2018 and May 2019. These killings, “should be fully
investigated, with accountability of perpetrators, and guarantees of
non-recurrence,” added Bachelet. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights
also denounced a pattern of torture reports during arbitrary detentions and
mentioned the recent death of Rafael Acosta, a retired navy captain, who died
in custody. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2480704&CategoryId=10717)
Maduro slams UN human rights report, says it's
full of lies
Nicolás Maduro on Monday said he had demanded
the rectification of what he described as lies included in the latest United
Nations report on human rights in this country. He also said that the United
Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights and former president of Chile,
Michelle Bachelet, had "made a wrong call" with the report's
outcome. (EFE: https://www.efe.com/efe/english/world/venezuela-s-maduro-slams-un-human-rights-report-says-it-full-of-lies/50000262-4018799)
Venezuelan bishops condemn death of naval
captain while in custody, other atrocities
The Venezuelan bishops' justice and peace
commission have condemned the death in custody of Rafael Acosta Arévalo, a
naval captain who was arrested over an alleged assassination plot against
president Nicolas Maduro. Acosta's lawyer alleges the officer had been tortured
while in custody. Two members of Venezuela's military counterintelligence
agency have been charged in relation to Acosta's death. The bishops also
protested that police had allegedly disfigured and left blind Rufo Chacón
Parada, a youth, as he was demonstrating about the lack supplies in the
country. “The Venezuelan state is responsible. We will not consent to the
manipulation, dissimulation and downplaying of these grave incidents,” the
bishops' justice and peace commission stated July 4. The bishops said that “the
forced disappearance, torture, cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment, excesses
committed by the police … against Venezuelans are practices that have taken
hold in the military and police corps, and are occurring on an ongoing basis,
like a secret that cries out in our consciences.” “Silence is not an
option in face of so much outrage,” the bishops said. The bishops noted
that the men charged in relation to Acosta's death, Lt Ascanio Tarascio and Sgt
Esteban Zarate, are 22 and 23, and asked: “This is the generation the armed
forces are passing the baton to? Who taught these young men how to do so much
harm to their brothers? What are the responsibilities of their superiors in the
chain of command in these institutions?” They emphasized that “these
young perpetrators are also victims of a system that has allowed this moral and
spiritual degradation in our country.” In addition, a Venezuelan Cardinal
is accusing the Maduro regime of intimidation and has reiterated his appeal to Nicolas
Maduro to engage in dialogue. In an interview with the Pontifical Foundation ‘Aid
to the Church in Need’, Archbishop Baltasar Porras of Merida, apostolic
administrator of Caracas and President of Caritas Venezuela, shone the light on
the limitations and intimidation perpetrated by the government against Church
officials and organizations. He decried the fact that those who are bringing
aid to the impoverished population and even parishes are continuously under
pressure to stop their work. (Catholic
News Agency: https://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/venezuelan-bishops-condemn-death-of-naval-captain-while-in-custody-74364; Vatican News: https://www.vaticannews.va/en/world/news/2019-07/venezuela-cardinal-government-opposition-dialogue.html)
Venezuelan journalist Braulio Jatar
conditionally released, barred from leaving country
Venezuelan online and radio journalist Braulio
Jatar was formally released from house arrest today after receiving official
notification from a criminal court in his home state of Nueva Esparta. As
mandated by the court, Jatar - who was charged but not tried for money
laundering -- is barred from leaving Nueva Esparta and is required to present
himself before that court every 15 days, according to his statement. Jatar's
release was first announced by U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle
Bachelet on July 5, according to press reports. According to the reports,
Bachelet had requested the release of Jatar and other high-profile prisoners
during her June visit to Venezuela. The news came after the U.N. Human Rights
Council held a debate on Bachelet’s report of a visit to Venezuela in June. The
report accused Venezuelan security forces of sending death squads to murder
young men but a vice minister rejected that in a speech to the Geneva forum on
Friday. “The welcome releases of 62 detainees then (in June), with a further
22 – including journalist Braulio Jatar and judge (Maria) Lourdes Afiuni – set
free yesterday and the authorities’ acceptance of two human rights officers in
the country, signify the beginning of positive engagement on the country’s many
human rights issues,” Bachelet said. (Committee to Protect Journalists: https://cpj.org/2019/07/venezuelan-journalist-braulio-jatar-conditionally-.php; Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-un-prisoners/venezuela-releasing-judge-journalist-20-students-u-n-idUSKCN1U016V)
US expresses concerns for wrongfully detained
U.S. persons (CITGO 6) in Venezuela
The United States demands that the former
Maduro regime release the wrongfully detained “CITGO 6” in Venezuela. These men
are suffering serious health conditions and must be released immediately. Maduro
loyalists continue to prevent the families and attorneys of American prisoners
from assisting with basic access to food and medicine, without regard for
mental health and general well-being of those detained. These affronts to basic
dignity will not be ignored. The
Department of State continues to press Maduro’s representatives for their
assurance of the safety and welfare of Americans wrongfully detained in
Venezuela. (US Department of State: https://www.state.gov/concerns-for-wrongfully-detained-u-s-persons-citgo-6-in-venezuela/)
UN agencies welcome regional road map to help
integrate ‘continuing exodus of Venezuelans’
A new road map adopted by Latin American and
Caribbean countries, to help better integrate refugees and migrants from
crisis-hit Venezuela into new host societies, drew a warm welcome from two UN
agencies on Monday. UN refugee agency UNHCR, and the International Organization
for Migration (IOM) lauded the joint declaration that agrees to reinforce
cooperation, communication and coordination between the countries of transit
and destination; strengthen measures against people-smuggling and trafficking;
and protect the most vulnerable by combatting discrimination, xenophobia and
sexual and gender-based violence. The road map was adopted late last week
during the International Technical Meeting of the Quito Process, in the
Argentine capital, Buenos Aires, with the participation of 14 Latin American
and Caribbean governments, UN agencies, regional organizations, development
banks and civil society The meeting highlighted the actions and efforts of the
regional countries, not only in terms of reception, documentation and
humanitarian assistance, but also in promoting access to health, education,
employment, and housing on behalf of Venezuelan refugees and migrants. The Road
Map of the Buenos Aires Chapter sets out specific actions on human trafficking,
healthcare and for recognizing academic qualifications of Venezuelan
professionals, as well as establishing information and reception centers. A
so-called Information Card for Regional Mobility is a priority commitment, to
complement and strengthen the documentation and registration processes at
national levels where it exists or is being developed. According to data from
national immigration authorities and other sources, the number of refugees and
migrants from Venezuela around the world has now exceeded four million. (UN
News: https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/07/1042041)
On Venezuelan Independence
Day Maduro called for “dialogue” as Guaido slammed 'dictatorship'
Venezuela’s bitterly divided political factions
held competing commemorations of the country’s independence day on Friday, with
President Nicolas Maduro calling for dialogue and opposition leader Juan Guaido
decrying alleged human rights violations by Maduro’s “dictatorship.” Speaking
to a gathering of top military officials, Maduro reiterated his support for a
negotiation process mediated by Norway between his socialist government and
Guaido, the leader of the opposition-held National Assembly who argues Maduro’s
2018 re-election was a fraud. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics/on-venezuelan-independence-day-maduro-calls-for-dialogue-as-guaido-slams-dictatorship-idUSKCN1U022E)
Maduro ratified General
Padrino as Defense Minister
Nicolas Maduro on Sunday announced he will maintain
Defense Minister General Vladimir Padrino in his post, following months of
rumors that top military brass would be replaced after a failed uprising in
April. The Trump administration identified Padrino among the top officials
involved in negotiations with opposition leader Juan Guaido to create a
transition government on April 30, in response to the country’s economic
meltdown. Since then, General Padrino has publicly professed loyalty to Maduro
along with the majority of the armed forces, which are seen as the main reason
why Maduro held on to power despite a hyperinflationary collapse. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-military/venezuelas-maduro-ratifies-padrino-as-defense-minister-idUSKCN1U305G)
OP-ED: Will more talks that do not include the
military resolve Venezuela’s crisis?
Representatives from Venezuelan President Nicolás
Maduro’s government and the opposition are expected to meet this week in
Barbados for another round of talks mediated by Norway. Previous discussions to
end the country’s ongoing political crisis have ended in deadlock. The talks so
far have involved two parties: Maduro’s government, which still controls state
institutions largely due to military backing; and the opposition led by Juan
Guaidó, who is recognized as Venezuela’s acting president by more than 50
countries. Guaidó, like many in the opposition, is skeptical of dialogue.
Maduro’s critics see it as a stalling tactic. What to expect: Guaidó has
demanded a solution this time, but the talks could again be limited by the
two-party approach, said Moises Rendon, the associate director of the Americas program
at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The new round of
negotiations has a flaw that hasn’t been addressed in the last rounds: who is
representing Maduro’s government and who is representing Guaidó’s government,”
Rendon said. “I don’t think it’s going anywhere, because you don’t have the
full representation of all the forces within the Maduro regime”—including the
military.” Last week, the United Nations released a report alleging
thousands of extrajudicial killings carried out by Venezuelan special forces
over the past 18 months. “That will help on the leverage of the Guaidó side,”
Rendon said. But it could have limited impact on this week’s negotiations. “The
[U.N.] report did not go that far in terms of connecting the human rights
violations they described to the Maduro government,” he added. “It’s not
shedding light on who’s responsible.” (Foreign Affairs: https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/07/09/another-round-of-talks-for-venezuela-maduro-guaido-iran-europe-trump-uk-darroch/)
The following brief
is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such,
the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte
Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.
