July 09, 2019

Oil & Energy

Squeezed by sanctions, Venezuela sells oil to tiny Turkish firm

With U.S. sanctions blocking Venezuela from selling oil to the United States, state-owned energy firm PDVSA has turned to several little-known buyers that include a tiny Turkish company with no refineries but ties to Nicolas Maduro’s regime. U.S. sanctions have driven away many customers. PDVSA’s exports have slumped by more than a fifth since sanctions were imposed. Its biggest buyers today are Chinese and Indian companies. Directors at a March 14 meeting of Maduro’s PDVSA board temporarily waived some requirements for new customers or suppliers, including that of having at least two years’ experience in the oil industry. In the wake of the changes, a Turkish company called Grupo IVEEX INSAAT started buying Venezuelan oil in April. Istanbul Chamber of Commerce records show that IVEEX INSAAT was formed less than a year ago with capital of just US$ 1,775 and listed “residential construction” as its main activity. It was one of only five firms that loaded tankers to take Venezuela’s upgraded crude - among its most valuable oil - from April through June, the documents showed. IVEEX loaded four cargoes of Venezuelan crude and products in April - equivalent to just under 8% of Venezuela’s oil exports - and nothing in May or June, according to PDVSA documents. Turkish corporate records show IVEEX INSAAT is owned by Miguel Silva, a Venezuelan businessman who heads the Caracas-based Venezuelan Exporters’ Chamber and served as a housing ministry commissioner in Maduro’s administration. Silva registered IVEEX INSAAT with a Turkish partner named Erhan Kap, an Istanbul tour guide, on Sept. 27, 2018, just a week after Maduro visited Istanbul. IVEEX reportedly has agreed to deliver refined products to Venezuela in exchange for receiving crude. With its refinery network crippled by maintenance issues, the OPEC nation has struggled with severe fuel shortages in recent months. The two other companies that only began chartering tankers to take PDVSA’s oil after sanctions hit are Panama-registered MELAJ Offshore Corp and Sahara Energy, a unit of Nigeria-based Sahara Group. The two loaded PDVSA oil cargoes shortly after the sanctions were announced. (REUTERS: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-oil-turkey/squeezed-by-sanctions-venezuela-sells-oil-to-tiny-turkish-firm-idUSKCN1U324M)

 

OPEC wants quick resolution to tensions between US and Iran, Venezuela

OPEC has asked on Monday for a timely settlement to the tensions that have flared up between the United States and Iran and Venezuela. Iran and Venezuela, both founding members of OPEC, are both exempt once again from the production cut extensions that the cartel announced last week and will remain exempt for as long as they remain under sanction. Both Iran’s and Venezuela’s production woes have contributed significantly to the cartel’s over compliance to the group’s production cut quota, with Iran’s crude production falling from an average of 3.813 million barrels per day in 2017 to 2.370 million barrels per day in May 2019, and Venezuela’s crude production falling from 1.911 million bpd on average in 2017, to an abysmal 741,000 bpd in May 2019. But while the two countries combined seemingly did OPEC a favor by taking more than 2.6 million barrels of crude oil per day out of the market within that time frame, the tensions in the Persian Gulf and the dire situation in Venezuela are creating a market that OPEC is finding it difficult to both predict and manage. (Oil Price: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPEC-Wants-Quick-Resolution-To-Tensions-Between-US-And-Iran-Venezuela.html)

 

Amuay and Cardon refineries halted by blackout

Venezuela’s Amuay and Cardon refineries are halted following a blackout in the early morning hours, two oil industry sources with knowledge of the issue said on Sunday. The twin refineries together form the 955,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) Paraguana Refining Center, which has been operating well below capacity for years because of chronic operational problems that have been aggravated by Venezuela’s economic crisis. “Blackout in both refineries,” one employee who works in the complex wrote in a text message. “It’s going to be difficult to get the system back up.” (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/refinery-operations-pdvsa-amuay/update-1-venezuelas-amuay-and-cardon-refineries-halted-by-blackout-sources-idUSL2N24802S)

 

CHEVRON is playing a long game in Venezuela’s oil fields

Donald Trump may have slammed Venezuela with sanctions in an effort to change the regime of President Nicolás Maduro, but the country’s energy industry has an unlikely ally: CHEVRON Corp. Despite the U.S. administration’s push to disrupt the financial resources available to Venezuela’s leadership, the second-biggest U.S. oil company is working to bolster one of the Maduro government’s chief economic pillars—its ability to produce crude oil. CHEVRON is helping tap four fields in the country while testing new injection technologies to maximize production in one. CHEVRON is also helping pay for supplies, expenses, and even health care for workers at state-owned oil producer PDVSA to keep the crude flowing. CHEVRON’s actions are an attempt to play the long game in economically ravaged Venezuela. If Maduro retains power, CHEVRON will keep its tenuous—but still profitable—foothold in Venezuela. If he’s forced out and U.S. sanctions end, the company could be first in line to gain from the country’s vast geologic riches. The gamble puts CHEVRON in the same group as state-controlled producers from Russia and China that have been supportive of the Maduro regime—and potentially at odds with its home country. The company is working under a Department of the Treasury waiver of U.S. sanctions against Venezuela that expires on July 27. A decision by the U.S. government not to renew the waiver could cripple the production of more than 200,000 barrels a day at the four projects Chevron is keeping afloat, even though most of that production goes to PDVSA. And it could lead Maduro to hand CHEVRON’s stakes in these fields to other explorers.  Positioning itself to outlast Maduro won’t be easy. Last year two Chevron employees were arrested and held for seven weeks for reasons neither the government nor the company disclosed. Still, the oil producer continues to work with the government to keep its operation intact. That could mean braving Trump administration pressure and weathering the worsening humanitarian crisis, but the payoff might be worth the risks. “Whatever government that is coming in will be dealing with very diverse issues and doing it with very little cash in the bank, and that presents a unique opportunity,” says Schreiner Parker, vice president for Latin America at consulting firm RYSTAD Energy. “In the medium to long term with regime change, we believe Venezuela will become very investor-friendly, out of necessity more than anything.” (Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-09/chevron-is-playing-a-long-game-in-venezuela-s-oil-fields)

 

Economy & Finance

JP Morgan to cut Venezuela weight to zero in key indexes over five months

JP Morgan will reduce the weight of Venezuela's sovereign and PDVSA bonds to zero in its widely tracked indexes, the bank said on Tuesday, phasing them out over five months starting on July 31. Venezuela's weight was 0.5%, 0.9% and 1.2% in the EMBI Global Diversified, EMBI Global and EMBI+ indices, respectively, it added. As a result of dialing down the weighting, JP Morgan said the headline EMBIGD yield and spread were estimated to compress by about 45 basis points. JP Morgan said it could open another index watch process in "the event of any favorable official guidance around easing of trading restrictions or consistent, observable improvements in liquidity and replicability of Venezuela bonds." (NASDAQ: https://www.nasdaq.com/article/jp-morgan-to-cut-venezuela-weight-to-zero-in-key-indexes-over-five-months-20190709-00584)

 

Maduro regime says U.S. sanctions hit debt refinancing, oil sales

Nicolas Maduro’s Vice foreign minister William Castillo also Venezuela charged on Friday that U.S.-led sanctions had stopped foreign debt refinancing, blocked vital food and medicine imports, and cost billions of dollars in lost oil assets. Maduro’s government says Venezuela is the victim of a U.S. plot to topple him, eradicate socialism and hand the world’s largest oil reserves to multinationals. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-un/venezuela-says-u-s-sanctions-hit-debt-refinancing-oil-sales-idUSKCN1U014B)

 

Bitcoin trading activity goes ballistic in Venezuela as rule of law erodes

The worse the political, social, and economic conditions in Venezuela get, the more that residents suffering under the Maduro regime pile into Bitcoin. According to Coin Dance, more than 47 billion Venezuela bolivars were traded against Bitcoin in the first week of July. This broke a previous record that had been set in mid-June. While the rising amounts of bolivars being spent on buying Bitcoin could be attributed to the fact that the Venezuelan currency is perpetually weakening, it also coincides with the price of the flagship cryptocurrency appreciating considerably in the last couple of weeks. As of April, the inflation rate in Venezuela was estimated to have hit 1,300,000%. Mid last month, the country announced a 50,000-bolivar bill designed to ease business transactions. Maduro will have released new banknotes for the second time in less than a year. Still, Venezuela ranks among the top 30 countries whose national currencies are the most traded for Bitcoin, according to Coinhills. While BTC/VES volumes have been on a steady increase since the beginning of 2018, Venezuela now has a national cryptocurrency, the Petro, which is competing for attention with Bitcoin. With Venezuelans already witnesses to how government-issued money can quickly lose its purchasing power in the face of hyperinflation, this move will only be beneficial to Bitcoin: The Maduro regime may be force-feeding the Petro on the people, but that will likely just serve as a gateway drug to Bitcoin. (CCN: https://www.ccn.com/crypto/bitcoin-trading-volume-venezuela/2019/07/08/)

 

Politics and International Affairs

Guaido announces fresh talks with Maduro regime

Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido on Sunday announced fresh talks with the government of President Nicolas Maduro. Guaido, who became acting president earlier this year, said the Norway-brokered talks aim "to establish a negotiation on the end of the dictatorship," referring to Maduro's regime. "The Venezuelan people, our allies and the world's democracies recognize the need for a truly free and transparent electoral process that will allow us to surpass the crisis and build a productive future," he said. Guaido is hoping the negotiations eventually lead to Maduro stepping down and "free elections with international observers." In May, delegations representing both parties met in Oslo under Norwegian mediation. However, the talks have yet to provide a path forward for the political impasse here. But Venezuela's opposition is wary of talks with Maduro's regime. Previous attempts to end the country's political crisis have failed, with critics saying they have only served to further solidify his rule. Norway which hosted the preliminary talks and is mediating the protracted process says the aim of the upcoming round of discussions in Barbados, is to move further forward towards a constitutional settlement. The opposition led by Juan Guaido wants a transitional government to replace the regime of Nicolas Maduro, and then free elections monitored by international observers. Guaido insists he`s the legitimate Interim President, recognized by more than fifty nations all around the world.  While Maduro states he`s the democratically elected President. (DW: https://www.dw.com/en/venezuelas-guaido-announces-fresh-talks-with-maduro-regime/a-49507748; Vatican News: https://www.vaticannews.va/en/world/news/2019-07/venezuela-cardinal-government-opposition-dialogue.html; Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics/venezuela-opposition-says-it-will-meet-maduro-envoys-in-norway-mediated-talks-idUSKCN1U20TF; https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-norway/venezuela-talks-to-resume-this-week-norway-idUSKCN1U30GU)

 

Barbados welcomes being the site for talks as CARICOM leverages ties with Caracas

Barbados Prime Minister Mia Amor Mottley Monday welcomed plans by both sides to hold talks in Barbados. “Since January, the government of Barbados along with other CARICOM governments has made it clear that the time for dialogue is never over. As a zone of peace, we will want to see a very peaceful resolution to the problems in Venezuela,” Mottley told reporters. Caribbean Community (CARICOM) leaders who have in the past adopted a position of non-interference and non-intervention in the affairs of this country, last week re-affirmed that position during their annual summit held in St. Lucia. Mottley made it clear that apart from hosting the meeting, Barbados will be playing no major role in the discussions. “This is a matter that requires the utmost patience, so it is not something that you should be asking me or anybody about on a daily basis, let the people talk. When you have deep divisions, it takes time and I have every confidence in the government of Norway being able to do what CARICOM has wanted done since January,” she said. Caribbean nations that used to rely on cheap Venezuelan oil are now hoping to leverage their ties with Caracas to help broker a negotiated settlement to the political crisis there. "This issue is one for the Venezuelans to work out," Trinidad´s prime minister Keith Rowley said. Norway's prime minister Erna Solberg was a guest at the CARICOM summit, and the group is playing the role of an honest broker in the Venezuelan crisis, St. Kitts-Nevis prime minister Timothy Harris said. (Caribbean Broadasting Corporation: http://www.cbc.bb/wordpress/2019/07/09/pm-pleased-with-plans-for-negotiations-to-end-venezuela-crisis/; Argus Media: https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/1935802-caribbean-sets-stage-for-thorny-venezuela-talks)

 

Maduro 'optimistic' as crisis talks resume

Nicolás Maduro said he was "optimistic" as talks between his regime and the opposition to resolve the country's political crisis resumed on Monday. Preliminary talks held in May in Oslo petered out without an agreement. Maduro said a six-point agenda was being discussed at the meeting which is being hosted by Barbados. He did not give further details. The Norwegian foreign ministry is again acting as a mediator, as it did at the previous meeting in Oslo, but has so far only commented to confirm the meeting was taking place. Maduro revealed that Monday's meeting lasted five hours. He also said he thought "a path to peace" could be found. Just a week ago Guaidó ruled out a return to negotiations, citing as a reason the death in custody of an army captain whose body showed signs of torture. Guaidó has not said why his stance has changed. Some in the opposition say the talks are a ruse by the government to buy itself more time in power. On Friday Maduro said he doesn’t think it necessary to hold presidential elections in the country right now. "What does the people of Venezuela need today? Elections? I don’t think so," he told journalists. "The people of Venezuela needs economic revival, peace and constitutional stability. And it is necessary to reelect the National Assembly for that," he said. "The opposition wants no elections," he said. "If we say elections will be held in 30 days, they will begin inventing reasons to dodge them." (BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-48904193; TASS: https://tass.com/world/1043923)

 

Venezuela's rule of law has crumbled under Maduro, international legal group reports

The rule of law has crumbled in Venezuela under the regime of Nicolas Maduro which has usurped the powers of the legislative and judicial branches, an international legal watchdog said on Monday. The International Commission of Jurists (ICJ) called on Venezuelan authorities to reinstate democratic institutions as part of a solution to the political, economic and humanitarian crisis engulfing the OPEC member. The government and a compliant Supreme Court effectively stripped the National Assembly of most powers after the opposition won a majority in 2015 elections. Lawmakers loyal to Maduro generally do not attend the sessions but go to meetings of the Constituent Assembly, a legislative body that meets in the same building. The Constituent Assembly, created in a 2017 election boycotted by the opposition, is controlled by the ruling Socialist Party and its powers supersede the National Assembly. Sam Zarifi, ICJ secretary-general, presented its latest report on Venezuela: “No Room for Debate”. “The focus of this report is on the usurpation of the authority of the legislative by the government in Venezuela. This comes after the judiciary was taken over,” he told a news briefing. The Constituent Assembly was “formed improperly and illegitimately” and has gone far beyond its stated role, Zarifi said, adding: “In fact it seemed to do everything but really discuss a new Constitution”.  “Addressing the problem of the National Constituent Assembly is a crucial step in any political solution to the crisis that has gripped Venezuela,” ICJ’s Zarifi said, urging the government to engage with the opposition-led legislature. (NBC News: https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/venezuela-crisis/venezuela-s-rule-law-has-crumbled-under-maduro-international-legal-n1027406)

 

Poll shows 64,6% of Venezuelans would vote in any new presidential election

A recent poll by the Catholic University’s Center for Political Studies and Government, along with DELPHOS, shows that 64.6% of Venezuelans are willing to vote if new presidential elections are called; and the number goes up to 70.2% if Nocolás Maduro resigns and stays out of the process, the National Elections Council is changed and there are international observers. An opposition candidate would get 67% of all votes (12.9 million) and a regime candidate would receive 33% (6.3 million). Another 15.1% of those polled indicated they might vote. More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/politica/44895/646-de-los-venezolanos-votarian-en-elecciones-presidenciales)

 

Venezuelans deserve better life, free from fear, UN Human Rights Chief says

The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights said on Friday that Venezuelans deserve a better life that is free from fear and whereby they have access to food, water and health services during the presentation of her report on Venezuela before the Human Rights Council. “The fate of more than 30 million Venezuelans rests on the leadership’s willingness and ability to put the human rights of the people ahead of any personal, ideological or political ambitions,” Michelle Bachelet said during presentation of her report in Geneva. The report accuses the Nicolas Maduro regime of grave human rights violations and documents, among other serious incidents, more than 6,800 extra-judicial killings by the Venezuelan armed forces between January 2018 and May 2019. These killings, “should be fully investigated, with accountability of perpetrators, and guarantees of non-recurrence,” added Bachelet. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights also denounced a pattern of torture reports during arbitrary detentions and mentioned the recent death of Rafael Acosta, a retired navy captain, who died in custody. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2480704&CategoryId=10717)

 

Maduro slams UN human rights report, says it's full of lies

Nicolás Maduro on Monday said he had demanded the rectification of what he described as lies included in the latest United Nations report on human rights in this country. He also said that the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights and former president of Chile, Michelle Bachelet, had "made a wrong call" with the report's outcome. (EFE: https://www.efe.com/efe/english/world/venezuela-s-maduro-slams-un-human-rights-report-says-it-full-of-lies/50000262-4018799)

 

Venezuelan bishops condemn death of naval captain while in custody, other atrocities

The Venezuelan bishops' justice and peace commission have condemned the death in custody of Rafael Acosta Arévalo, a naval captain who was arrested over an alleged assassination plot against president Nicolas Maduro. Acosta's lawyer alleges the officer had been tortured while in custody. Two members of Venezuela's military counterintelligence agency have been charged in relation to Acosta's death. The bishops also protested that police had allegedly disfigured and left blind Rufo Chacón Parada, a youth, as he was demonstrating about the lack supplies in the country. “The Venezuelan state is responsible. We will not consent to the manipulation, dissimulation and downplaying of these grave incidents,” the bishops' justice and peace commission stated July 4. The bishops said that “the forced disappearance, torture, cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment, excesses committed by the police … against Venezuelans are practices that have taken hold in the military and police corps, and are occurring on an ongoing basis, like a secret that cries out in our consciences.” “Silence is not an option in face of so much outrage,” the bishops said. The bishops noted that the men charged in relation to Acosta's death, Lt Ascanio Tarascio and Sgt Esteban Zarate, are 22 and 23, and asked: “This is the generation the armed forces are passing the baton to? Who taught these young men how to do so much harm to their brothers? What are the responsibilities of their superiors in the chain of command in these institutions?” They emphasized that “these young perpetrators are also victims of a system that has allowed this moral and spiritual degradation in our country.” In addition, a Venezuelan Cardinal is accusing the Maduro regime of intimidation and has reiterated his appeal to Nicolas Maduro to engage in dialogue. In an interview with the Pontifical Foundation ‘Aid to the Church in Need’, Archbishop Baltasar Porras of Merida, apostolic administrator of Caracas and President of Caritas Venezuela, shone the light on the limitations and intimidation perpetrated by the government against Church officials and organizations. He decried the fact that those who are bringing aid to the impoverished population and even parishes are continuously under pressure to stop their work.  (Catholic News Agency: https://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/venezuelan-bishops-condemn-death-of-naval-captain-while-in-custody-74364; Vatican News: https://www.vaticannews.va/en/world/news/2019-07/venezuela-cardinal-government-opposition-dialogue.html)

 

Venezuelan journalist Braulio Jatar conditionally released, barred from leaving country

Venezuelan online and radio journalist Braulio Jatar was formally released from house arrest today after receiving official notification from a criminal court in his home state of Nueva Esparta. As mandated by the court, Jatar - who was charged but not tried for money laundering -- is barred from leaving Nueva Esparta and is required to present himself before that court every 15 days, according to his statement. Jatar's release was first announced by U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet on July 5, according to press reports. According to the reports, Bachelet had requested the release of Jatar and other high-profile prisoners during her June visit to Venezuela. The news came after the U.N. Human Rights Council held a debate on Bachelet’s report of a visit to Venezuela in June. The report accused Venezuelan security forces of sending death squads to murder young men but a vice minister rejected that in a speech to the Geneva forum on Friday. “The welcome releases of 62 detainees then (in June), with a further 22 – including journalist Braulio Jatar and judge (Maria) Lourdes Afiuni – set free yesterday and the authorities’ acceptance of two human rights officers in the country, signify the beginning of positive engagement on the country’s many human rights issues,” Bachelet said. (Committee to Protect Journalists: https://cpj.org/2019/07/venezuelan-journalist-braulio-jatar-conditionally-.php; Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-un-prisoners/venezuela-releasing-judge-journalist-20-students-u-n-idUSKCN1U016V)

 

US expresses concerns for wrongfully detained U.S. persons (CITGO 6) in Venezuela

The United States demands that the former Maduro regime release the wrongfully detained “CITGO 6” in Venezuela. These men are suffering serious health conditions and must be released immediately. Maduro loyalists continue to prevent the families and attorneys of American prisoners from assisting with basic access to food and medicine, without regard for mental health and general well-being of those detained. These affronts to basic dignity will not be ignored.  The Department of State continues to press Maduro’s representatives for their assurance of the safety and welfare of Americans wrongfully detained in Venezuela. (US Department of State: https://www.state.gov/concerns-for-wrongfully-detained-u-s-persons-citgo-6-in-venezuela/)

 

UN agencies welcome regional road map to help integrate ‘continuing exodus of Venezuelans’

A new road map adopted by Latin American and Caribbean countries, to help better integrate refugees and migrants from crisis-hit Venezuela into new host societies, drew a warm welcome from two UN agencies on Monday. UN refugee agency UNHCR, and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) lauded the joint declaration that agrees to reinforce cooperation, communication and coordination between the countries of transit and destination; strengthen measures against people-smuggling and trafficking; and protect the most vulnerable by combatting discrimination, xenophobia and sexual and gender-based violence. The road map was adopted late last week during the International Technical Meeting of the Quito Process, in the Argentine capital, Buenos Aires, with the participation of 14 Latin American and Caribbean governments, UN agencies, regional organizations, development banks and civil society The meeting highlighted the actions and efforts of the regional countries, not only in terms of reception, documentation and humanitarian assistance, but also in promoting access to health, education, employment, and housing on behalf of Venezuelan refugees and migrants. The Road Map of the Buenos Aires Chapter sets out specific actions on human trafficking, healthcare and for recognizing academic qualifications of Venezuelan professionals, as well as establishing information and reception centers. A so-called Information Card for Regional Mobility is a priority commitment, to complement and strengthen the documentation and registration processes at national levels where it exists or is being developed. According to data from national immigration authorities and other sources, the number of refugees and migrants from Venezuela around the world has now exceeded four million. (UN News: https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/07/1042041)

 

On Venezuelan Independence Day Maduro called for “dialogue” as Guaido slammed 'dictatorship'

Venezuela’s bitterly divided political factions held competing commemorations of the country’s independence day on Friday, with President Nicolas Maduro calling for dialogue and opposition leader Juan Guaido decrying alleged human rights violations by Maduro’s “dictatorship.” Speaking to a gathering of top military officials, Maduro reiterated his support for a negotiation process mediated by Norway between his socialist government and Guaido, the leader of the opposition-held National Assembly who argues Maduro’s 2018 re-election was a fraud. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics/on-venezuelan-independence-day-maduro-calls-for-dialogue-as-guaido-slams-dictatorship-idUSKCN1U022E)

 

Maduro ratified General Padrino as Defense Minister

Nicolas Maduro on Sunday announced he will maintain Defense Minister General Vladimir Padrino in his post, following months of rumors that top military brass would be replaced after a failed uprising in April. The Trump administration identified Padrino among the top officials involved in negotiations with opposition leader Juan Guaido to create a transition government on April 30, in response to the country’s economic meltdown. Since then, General Padrino has publicly professed loyalty to Maduro along with the majority of the armed forces, which are seen as the main reason why Maduro held on to power despite a hyperinflationary collapse. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-military/venezuelas-maduro-ratifies-padrino-as-defense-minister-idUSKCN1U305G)

 

OP-ED: Will more talks that do not include the military resolve Venezuela’s crisis?

Representatives from Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s government and the opposition are expected to meet this week in Barbados for another round of talks mediated by Norway. Previous discussions to end the country’s ongoing political crisis have ended in deadlock. The talks so far have involved two parties: Maduro’s government, which still controls state institutions largely due to military backing; and the opposition led by Juan Guaidó, who is recognized as Venezuela’s acting president by more than 50 countries. Guaidó, like many in the opposition, is skeptical of dialogue. Maduro’s critics see it as a stalling tactic. What to expect: Guaidó has demanded a solution this time, but the talks could again be limited by the two-party approach, said Moises Rendon, the associate director of the Americas program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The new round of negotiations has a flaw that hasn’t been addressed in the last rounds: who is representing Maduro’s government and who is representing Guaidó’s government,” Rendon said. “I don’t think it’s going anywhere, because you don’t have the full representation of all the forces within the Maduro regime”—including the military.” Last week, the United Nations released a report alleging thousands of extrajudicial killings carried out by Venezuelan special forces over the past 18 months. “That will help on the leverage of the Guaidó side,” Rendon said. But it could have limited impact on this week’s negotiations. “The [U.N.] report did not go that far in terms of connecting the human rights violations they described to the Maduro government,” he added. “It’s not shedding light on who’s responsible.” (Foreign Affairs: https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/07/09/another-round-of-talks-for-venezuela-maduro-guaido-iran-europe-trump-uk-darroch/)

 

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.