February 12, 2016

International Trade

 

Uruguayan milk producers ask their government to settle Venezuela's debt

Uruguay's National Association of Milk Producers (ANPL) has requested a meeting with Uruguayan President Tabaré Vazquez to ask his government to pay up the money Venezuela owes to dairy producers, so the governments of both countries can settle their accounts later, says Rodolfo Braga, President of the Association. In September 2015, both governments agreed on the shipment of 235,000 tons of Uruguayan food products to Venezuela for a total US$ 300 million. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/160210/uruguayan-milk-producers-ask-the-govt-to-settle-venezuelas-debt)

 

 

Logistics & Transport

 

Air cargo to and from Venezuela dropped 28% in 2015, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). 3413 air waybills were issued as opposed to 4747 in 2014. Dollar sales, however, increased 140%, from US$ 9.586 million to US$ 23.019 million. More in Spanish: (El Mundo, http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/economia/empresas/carga-aerea-desde-y-hacia-venezuela-cayo-28--en-20.aspx#ixzz3zr1cntfM)

 

Brazil's GOL airline suspends service to Venezuela in currency dispute

Brazilian airline GOL has suspended operations to Venezuela's capital Caracas until it can settle a dispute over the transfer of money out of the country and back to Brazil, the company said in a statement. The money is being held in Venezuela under strict currency controls, a system that has led other airlines to take write-downs on Venezuelan operations or suspend ticket sales and service to the country. Airlines have US$ 3.9 billion of resources trapped in Venezuela, according to the International Air Transport Association, or IATA. The government requires all tickets to be sold in local currency but makes it difficult for the airlines to convert that local revenue into dollars. The Venezuelan Bolivar though has been shrinking, reducing the foreign currency value of the local ticket sales. (Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/gol-linhas-ae-venezuela-idUSL2N15O23Q; Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2405298&CategoryId=10717)

 

 

Oil & Energy

 

Desperate Venezuela lobbies hard for oil supply cut

Venezuela is lobbying hard for OPEC and other oil producers to discuss cutting production but an emergency meeting still appears some way off. The cost of a barrel of crude soared last week after Russia said that OPEC and non-OPEC countries were considering a 5% output cut across the board. And there are signs that OPEC powers such as Saudi Arabia may be willing to act to stabilize the oil market. A senior Gulf source has said that "all options are on the table." But getting agreement on a cut within OPEC, let alone one involving countries such as Russia and Mexico, is clearly easier said than done. The task of trying to round up all the players has fallen to Eulogio Del Pino, Venezuela's new oil minister and president of state oil giant PDVSA. Del Pino is visiting Russia, Iran, Qatar and Saudi Arabia to see if there's support for an emergency meeting. The frantic round of oil diplomacy has other players too: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov talked oil with Abu Dhabi's crown prince earlier this week. Lavrov said a formal meeting between OPEC and other oil producers could be called "if everyone wants it." A spokesman for Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, while in Moscow Wednesday, said cooperation was vital at this juncture. Saudi ARAMCO chairman Khalid al-Falih said his country would not reduce output to make space for others, a thinly-veiled reference to regional rival Iran who is eager to add one million barrels per day to its production by the end of this year. He also stated bluntly that with the lowest cost production in the world, the Kingdom could live with low oil prices "for a long, long time." But he also held out the possibility of action. "If there are short term adjustments that need to be made and if other producers are willing to collaborate, Saudi Arabia will also be willing to collaborate," al-Falih said.  Investment banking giant Goldman Sachs said it's too late for the major players to save oil anyway. Saudi Arabia's oil minister Ali al-Naimi discussed cooperation between OPEC members and other oil producers to stabilize the global oil market with Del Pino, who said his meeting was "productive", his ministry reported. The prospect of supply restraint by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and rivals helped oil prices LCOc1 rise above US$ 34 a barrel on Friday from a 12-year low close to US$ 27 last month, despite widespread skepticism that a deal will happen. The Saudi petroleum ministry did not elaborate on steps required to shore up the market. While Saudi Arabia has said it’s open to cooperation between OPEC and non-OPEC nations, analysts said the world’s largest exporter was unlikely to agree to such a deal at a time when Iran and other global producers are themselves raising production. They also want to ensure that U.S. shale production won’t replace cuts made elsewhere. “They are buying time while we wait for the solid proof that U.S. production is slowing,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank in Copenhagen, said by e-mail.  (CNN Money: http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/04/news/opec-emergency-meeting-venezuela/; Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-oil-venezuela-idUSKCN0VG0MD; Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2405124&CategoryId=10717; Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-08/dubai-stocks-lead-gulf-rally-after-saudi-venezuela-oil-talks)

 

PDVSA cut spending after slump in prices

Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) cut 2015 capital spending as the state oil company grappled with crude prices that last month extended a decline to the lowest in almost 13 years. PDVSA reduced spending by as much as US$ 2.5 billion, or 15%, last year, Strategy Director Sergio Antonio Tovar said on the sidelines of an oil conference in London. He didn’t rule out further cuts this year. “If the current oil price level stays the same, PDVSA, as other oil companies, will have to tighten its belt,” Tovar said. It’s the first time since 2014 that PDVSA has publicly acknowledged changing its capital spending plans as the company adjusts to a 70% plunge in prices to about US$ 30 a barrel over the past 18 months. The company plans to increase production by as much as 100,000 barrels a day by the end of this year from 2.84 million barrels, after failing to regain the peak output of 3.2 million barrels reached in 2008. (Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-09/venezuela-state-oil-company-cut-spending-after-slump-in-prices)

 

ROSNEFT and PDVSA ponder reducing investments

Russian state-run oil company ROSNEFT and Venezuela's PDVSA could be pondering on reducing investments in Venezuela if crude oil prices remain low for a long period, Russian news agency RIA reported. The information was provided by Sergio Tovar, the Planning Director of PDVSA in London, during the IP Week, an annual forum on oil and gas. Further, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned in its February oil market report that "persistent speculation about a deal between OPEC and leading non-OPEC producers to cut output appears to be just that: speculation." (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/160210/rosneft-and-pdvsa-ponder-reducing-investments)

 

India's ONGC mulls US$ 500 million investment in Venezuelan field

Oil & Natural Gas Corp., India’s biggest explorer, may invest as much as a half billion dollars to revive a faltering Venezuelan field. The company’s overseas unit ONGC Videsh Ltd., which owns a 40% stake in the San Cristobal field in the Orinoco heavy-oil belt, is seeking to boost output with partner Petroleos de Venezuela SA, said P.K. Rao, director of operations at ONGC Videsh. “We are yet to finalize the detailed plan, but our share of investment could be around US$ 500 million,” Rao said in a phone interview from New Delhi. “The revival plan will aim at making the San Cristobal project profitable.”  ONGC Videsh invested about US$ 190 million for its stake in 2008. The field produces about 28,000 barrels a day, down from a peak of 38,000 barrels, ONGC Videsh Managing Director Narendra Kumar Verma said in August. (Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-09/india-s-ongc-mulls-500-million-investment-in-venezuelan-field)

 

Shopping malls cutting hours due to severe electricity crisis, government offices to work half time

Due to a growing crisis in electric energy supply attributed by government officials to low water reservoir levels arising from the “El Niño” climate condition, General Luis Motta, Electric Energy Minister, has ordered shopping centers to comply with a 2011 resolution that calls for high energy users – including shopping centers – to provide their own energy. Many are now opening for a limited number of hours a day. However, Alfredo Cohen, President of the national shopping malls associations (CAVECECO), says "malls in Venezuela only represent 2.92% of national power consumption”.  He adds that if malls open from 12 pm thru 7 pm, as the chamber proposed, it would represent daily power savings of 3,030 megawatts for 5 hours, while the power rationing plan proposed by the Ministry of Electric Energy implies 4 hours of interruption of power supply for savings of 2,130 megawatts. Cohen said that implementing CAVECECO's proposal "would have less impact on our visitors." Although the regime has denied rationing, the measure has drawn a storm of protest from mall users, theater goers and mall workers. General Motta also says the regime may order government offices and public institutions to work only “half time” to save energy. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/160210/cavececo-only-50-of-malls-have-power-plants; Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2405359&CategoryId=10717; and more in Spanish: (AVN; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/grandes-usuarios-deben-contribuir-uso-eficiente-energ%C3%ADa-ante-baja-embalses; Ultimas Noticias, http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/actualidad/economia/motta-dominguez-aqui-no-hay-toque-de-queda-electri.aspx; El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/economia/Motta-Dominguez-racionamiento_0_791321068.html; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/160211/preparan-reducir-horario-en-instituciones-publicas)

 

 

Commodities

 

Acquiring medications in Venezuela is getting harder and harder

Congress, controlled by the opposition, has declared a human health crisis in Venezuela amid shortages of medications and medical equipment, and deterioration in public health institutions. Lawmakers debated the issue after Venezuelan Pharmaceutical Federation, or FEFARVEN, president Freddy Ceballos explained flaws and problems in the distribution of up to 80% of medications across the country. “We are witnessing a human crisis, patients are dying for lack of medication,” Ceballos told EFE, adding that it was “very difficult” to keep records of patients affected by diseases that appeared recently, such as Zika, since there was not an epidemiological bulletin, a report that Congress should restore. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2405176&CategoryId=10718)

 

Flour inventories for bread and pasta may run out in February

Juan Crespo, head of the Flour Workers Federation, warns that wheat flour inventories for bread and pasta will only hold out through February, imperiling 80,000 direct and indirect jobs. More in Spanish: (El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/economia/Advierten-inventarios-alcanzan-finales-febrero_0_787721416.html)

 

 

Economy & Finance

 

Venezuela bonds drop for third day on heightened default concern

Venezuela bonds slumped for the third straight day amid concern this nation is close to defaulting after a local newspaper said a government official had proposed stopping payments on foreign debt. The yield on the country’s US$ 4 billion of dollar bonds due in 2027 rose 0.33 percentage point to 28.42% as of 12 p.m. on Wednesday in New York. The price on the notes, which carry a coupon of 9.25 percent, has fallen 7.6% in the past three trading days to 35.62 cents on the dollar. Caracas-based newspaper EL NACIONAL reported Feb. 7 that the country’s new Economy Vice President Luis Salas earlier this month proposed halting foreign debt payments in a meeting with President Nicolas Maduro. The newspaper didn’t say where it got the information and said both the oil and commerce ministers opposed the proposal. “It’s the first reported access to internal cabinet dialogue that we have that suggests that default is being pushed for at the top echelons of government and by the new top economic policy maker,” Russ Dallen, a managing partner at LATINVEST in Miami, said. Venezuela’s Finance Ministry declined to comment. Venezuela’s government may be rethinking its debt strategy after the opposition won a so-called super majority in congress last year after the country made US$ 5.2 billion in payments on foreign debt in October and November, Dallen said. “The government now realizes that honoring its external financial obligations bought it no votes and that had they used that US$ 5.2 billion to put a chicken in every pot on top of a new stove or in a new refrigerator in barrios across the country, they would’ve gotten a lot more votes,” he said. Salas, a 39-year-old university professor, was named by Maduro as head of the country’s economy in a cabinet reshuffle last month. Salas, who is seen as one of the more radical members within the government, argued in an economic pamphlet published last year that inflation doesn’t exist “in real life” and is instead a phenomenon caused by speculation, usury and hoarding. (Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-10/venezuela-bonds-drop-for-third-day-on-heightened-default-concern)

 

'The most miserable country in the world' is slipping toward default

Over the past few days, the talk among those who watch "the most miserable country" in the world has turned to default. This year, it seems, is Venezuela's year.  "Unless the Chinese pull something out of the bag or PDVSA exercises a voluntary bond swap it's happening," said Brian Dean, a partner at ACG Analytics. "There's going to be a default in my view unless there's some kind of political disruption ... They can sell assets but I don't know what they have left." The "default" calls have gotten especially loud over the last week. In a note Tuesday, Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Albert Ades said that if Brent oil prices level off at US $25, Venezuelan GDP would hit US$ 80 billion, making its external debt of US$ 123 billion unpayable. "In such a scenario, a forceful restructuring of Venezuelan debt would be very hard to avoid," he said. Harvard economist Ricardo Hausman, who has been attacked by the government in the past, wrote in the FT that while 2015 was bad, oil's low price will make 2016 much worse. The "most likely scenario is an imminent economic collapse and a humanitarian crisis," he wrote. He's talking an Argentina 2001-sized meltdown. The most bearish of those out there in the market think it could happen as soon as the end of this month. That's when Venezuela has to make a US$ 1.5 billion debt payment. Of course, people have been saying that Venezuela is on the brink since at least 2014. Yet every year the country ekes by and bond investors get paid — a lot. As The Wall Street Journal pointed out, last year, Venezuelan government bonds returned 17% for investors with the stomach to handle this ride. (Business Insider: http://www.businessinsider.com/venezuela-now-in-default-mode-2016-2)

 

Venezuela is about to go bust

Venezuela will have to default. The only question is when. A Venezuela meltdown could rock financial markets, and people around the world will lose a lot of money. But we should all save our collective sympathy — both the government in Caracas and the investors who enabled it had it coming. This year, given current oil prices and dwindling foreign reserves, if Venezuela were to pay off its obligations — at least US$ 10 billion — and maintain government spending, it would have to import close to nothing. In a country that imports most of what it consumes, this would ensure mayhem. Many people have been buying high-risk, high-return Venezuelan debt for years — from pension funds in far-off countries to small banks in developing ones. Most stand to lose their shirts. Yet the signs that this was unsustainable were there for all to see. For years, analysts have been warning that the Venezuelan government would rather chew nails that allow the private sector to grow. And yes, a lot of that borrowed money was used to help establish a narco-military kleptocracy. Investors in Venezuelan debt have only their hubris to blame. In a few months, once the rubble of the Bolivarian revolution is cleared, the discussion will turn to how Venezuela can be helped. It would be smart to remember that aid should come to the Venezuelan people first. If and when a responsible government in Caracas asks for foreign assistance, solving this urgent issue should be at the top of the agenda. Conditions on financial assistance should privilege the interests of Venezuelans caught in the debacle above the interests of angry hedge fund managers or international bankers. (Foreign Affairs: https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/05/venezuela-is-about-to-go-bust/)

 

Central Bank in talks with Deutsche Bank on gold swap

Venezuela's central bank has begun negotiations with Deutsche Bank to carry out gold swaps to improve the liquidity of its foreign reserves as it faces heavy debt payments this year, according to two sources familiar with the talks. Low oil prices and a decaying state-led economic model have weakened the nation's currency reserves and spurred concerns that it could default on bonds as it struggles to pay US$ 9.5 billion in debt service costs this year. Around 64% of Venezuela's US$ 15.4 billion in foreign reserves are held in gold bars, which limits President Nicolas Maduro's government's ability to quickly mobilize hard currency for imports or debt service. In December, Deutsche and Venezuela's central bank agreed to finalize a gold swap this year, the sources said. The sources did not confirm the volume of the operation in discussion. Neither Deutsche nor the central bank responded to requests for comment. (Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-economy-exclusive-idUSKCN0VE1AT; http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKCN0VH03B)

 

Venezuela could learn from Weimar hyperinflation, legislators call for Central Bank directors to resign

With inflation at an annual average of 98.3% for 2015, and predictions that it could reach 720% this year, Venezuela may be about to join the ranks of countries that have experienced out-of-control price increases that cripple the economy. If hyperinflation -- defined as price increases of 50% or more a month -- sets in, there will be inevitable comparisons to other such episodes. The most famous of these is the one that hit Germany in the early 1920s, with its images of ordinary people paying for necessities with wheelbarrows full of money. But perhaps the most interesting aspect of historical episodes of hyperinflation is how they end. And Germany offers an example that Venezuela might credibly emulate to regain control of its currency. Opposition Congressman Elías Matta has pointed out that cumulate inflation in Venezuela is 7931% since 1999, and called on Central Bank directors to resign, “if you have any shame”. (Bloomberg, http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-02-10/venezuela-could-learn-from-weimar-hyperinflation; and more in Spanish: El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/politica/Diputado-Elias-Matta-inflacion-acumulada_0_787721377.htm)

 

Trade Minister says current FOREX system is exhausted, changes to be announced in days

Jesús Faría, Venezuela’s Foreign Trade and Investment Minister, has told The Wall Street Journal that “the current FOREX system is exhausted” and exchange adjustment will be announced “in a few days”….”policies must adjust to current reality”. Economic authorities are reported to be meeting to devise a new devaluation which would bring the 6.30 and 12 VEB/US$ to somewhere between 50-60 VEB/US$. The proposal is being analyzed by President Nicolas Maduro and his principal economic advisor, Alfredo Serrano, a Spaniard linked to Spain’s PODEMOS party, according to these reports. More in Spanish: (El Mundo, http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/economia/politicas-publicas/faria--regimen-de-divisas-vigente-se-agoto.aspx#ixzz3zHyOk8oh; El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/economia/Estudian-devaluar-Cencoex-bolivares-dolar_0_787721462.html)

 

 

Politics and International Affairs

 

Venezuela under 'economic emergency' as court gives Maduro decree powers

Venezuela’s supreme court has overruled the opposition-controlled congress and granted broad decree powers to President Nicolás Maduro.  Congress in January had refused to approve Maduro’s declaration of an “economic emergency”. The court ruled in a decision made public on Thursday night that Maduro did not need congressional approval after all. The court said the declaration of emergency was now in effect, granting Maduro greatly expanded authority over the struggling economy for 60 days. Critics of Venezuela’s socialist administration immediately denounced the move as unconstitutional and tantamount to a coup. (The Guardian: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/12/venezuela-under-economic-emergency-as-court-gives-maduro-decree-powers)

 

In Venezuela, things will get worse before they get better

Segments of Venezuela's opposition are laying the groundwork for a political confrontation with the presidency. There is a draft law in the National Assembly that could be used to effectively cut short the tenure of President Nicolas Maduro. Various factions of the opposition are calling for slightly different courses of action. Some opposition leaders, including the runner-up in the last elections, Henrique Capriles, have advocated a referendum approach, but the speaker of the National Assembly, Henry Ramos Allup, has publicly backed Causa R's proposal, which is notable in that it would put in place a legal framework that the president will have a difficult time opposing. Causa R's aim is to enshrine the presidential changes in a constitutional amendment. If approved by the legislature, where the opposition holds a sizeable majority, it would go to a national referendum. Such an outcome would be risky for Maduro. He could resist or reject the opposition's referendum but this would be dangerous. If the government refused to legally recognize the opposition's referendum call, the public may see the president as standing in the way of reforms that would address the country's severe economic distress. The result would be a severe political crisis that would stall economic reforms and fuel public anger at the government. Yet the opposition is incapable of exerting enough pressure from the National Assembly to break the resulting political stalemate. Therefore, it will be crucial to see which side the majority of the Venezuelan armed forces backs. Major unrest is of particular concern to military leadership — their troops, the National Guard in particular, will be the ones tasked with controlling any protests. Maduro will need strong support from the military if he is to resist the referendum. Military commanders are likely preparing for the worst. Maduro's removal would not fix structural problems such as high inflation, but it could relieve some of the public anger at the central government and overcome the government's resistance to economic adjustments. With the country's political impasse worsening, substantive efforts at reform will be delayed as long as possible. Depending on how the legislative process plays out, Venezuela could become highly politically unstable in the near term. But even if the country avoids political upheaval, the long-term picture is still bleak. The next government — whether it comes to power soon or after presidential elections in 2019 — will have to oversee a major economic adjustment and cope with the ensuing threat of social upheaval. Sharp and socially disruptive adjustments, combined with a lengthy downturn due to depressed oil prices, will probably keep Venezuela politically unstable and economically depressed for several years, complicating the country's return to being a major oil producer. (Stratfor: https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/venezuela-things-will-get-worse-they-get-better)

 

The endgame in Venezuela

The government has run out of dollars—liquid international reserves have fallen to just US$ 1.5 billion, thinks José Manuel Puente, an economist at the IESA business school in Caracas. While all oil-producing countries are suffering, Venezuela is almost alone in having made no provision for lower prices. This spells misery for all but a handful of privileged officials and hangers-on. Real wages fell by 35% last year, calculates Asdrúbal Oliveros, a consultant. According to a survey by a group of universities, 76% of Venezuelans are now poor, up from 55% in 1998. Drugmakers warn that supplies of medicines have fallen to a fifth of their normal level. Many pills are unavailable; patients die as a result. In Caracas food queues at government stores grow longer by the week. Shortages will get even worse in March, worries a food-industry manager. Violent crime is out of control. Yet President Nicolas Maduro shows no sign of changing course. Last month he issued an “economic emergency” decree, rejected by the new assembly, which mainly offered more controls. His government seems paralyzed by indecision and infighting. Henry Ramos, the speaker of the assembly, has given the president six months to solve the economic crisis or face removal by constitutional means. On paper these include a recall referendum, an amendment to shorten his six-year term or a constituent assembly, which could rewrite the constitution. In practice, the rigged court and the chavista electoral authority can block or stall all of these. So the first step, says Ramos, is for the new assembly to replace the 13 justices. That, too, would be vetoed by the court. Stalemate is costly. Violent scuffles in food queues and localized looting are everyday occurrences. “We are seconds away from situations that the government can’t control. It’s a very thin line,” says Henrique Capriles, a moderate opposition leader who narrowly lost to Maduro in the 2013 presidential election. Most in the opposition and some chavistas believe a negotiated transition is the only way to prevent a descent into bloodshed. The outlines of such a deal are clear. The regime would concede an amnesty for political prisoners and agree to restore the independence of the judiciary, the electoral authority and other powers. In return the opposition would support essential, but doubtless unpopular, measures to stabilize the economy. Ramos says that there are “some conversations” but no formal dialogue. On the street, time is running out. Many in the opposition want Maduro’s resignation as the price for such a deal, and either a fresh election or his replacement by Aristóbulo Istúriz, his new and moderate vice-president. (The Economist: http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21690098-country-brink-social-explosion-only-negotiated-transition-can)

 

BOFA predicts crisis will continue even if oil prices rebound

The most recent report on Venezuela by Bank of America Merrill Lynch indicates that the economic crisis will continue even if oil prices recover: “We believe it highly probable that import contraction will continue despite which exchange rate adjustment is made”. Latest trade statistics show imports fell 45% last year, and private sector representatives have indicated there will be a more severe contraction this year, with inventories dropping to critical levels. Since there have been no major price adjustments, scarcity could rise to levels “that make 2015 look like a time of abundance”, and this will bring political consequences. “The growing demand for regime change creates increased incentives for the opposition to move quickly forward on a recall referendum, so we cannot rule out the possibility of more social tension and a high risk to governance in the next few months”, says the report. More in Spanish:  (El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/economia/recupere-precio-petroleo-continuara-crisis_0_791321070.html)

 

 

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.