Venezuelan Daily Brief

Published in association with The DVA Group and The Selinger Group, the Venezuelan Daily Brief provides bi-weekly summaries of key news items affecting bulk commodities and the general business environment in Venezuela.

Tuesday, June 27, 2017

June 27, 2017


International Trade

130 containers of food, medicine and personal care products arrived at La Guaira port from Cartagena, Colombia, aboard the MAERK WISMAR. This cargo includes cooking oil, rice, beans, sugar, spaghetti, corn flour, tuna, milk, mayonnaise, tomato sauce, toilet paper, diapers, shampoo, brushes, soap, sanitary napkins and medicine. More in Spanish: (Bolipuertos, http://www.bolipuertos.gob.ve/noticia.aspx?id=37426; El Mundo, http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/economia/politicas-publicas/arribaron-a-la-guaira-130-contenedores-con-aliment.aspx)

 

Logistics & Transport

DHL restores service to Venezuela

DHL Express Venezuela has reestablished its import and export operations here, says DHL Venezuela president César Ramírez, who confirmed the arrival of a special company Boeing 737flight from Panama. More in Spanish: (El Mundo, http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/negocios/empresas/dhl-normaliza-su-servicio-en-venezuela.aspx#ixzz4lCKw38fZ)

 

Oil & Energy

Venezuela oil price crashes through US$ 40

The price Venezuela receives for its mix of medium and heavy oil fell 4.1% to its lowest point since the coordinated OPEC supply freezes were announced in November. According to figures released by the Ministry of Petroleum and Mining, the average price of Venezuelan crude sold by PDVSA during the week ending June 23 fell to US$ 39.23, down US$ 1.66 from the previous week's US$ 40.89. As per Venezuelan government figures, the average price in 2017 for Venezuela's mix of heavy and medium crude fell to US$ 43.77. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2438826&CategoryId=10717)

 

Crisis-stricken Venezuela looks to import fuel

Venezuela is seeking more than 13 million barrels of fuel imports by the end of the year, which constitutes about a third of what the nation needs annually. Refineries are operating at less than 50% of their installed capacity—which is 3.1 million bpd—due to insufficient supplies of crude oil and to insufficient maintenance. Refinery maintenance is being overlooked as the state oil company focuses its efforts on producing enough oil to repay debts accumulated over the last few years mainly to China and Russia amid the oil price crash. Venezuela pumped 1.95 million bpd as of this April, according Caracas, production in April averaged 2.19 million bpd. Whatever the actual number, it’s below the average of 2.31 million bpd from April 2016. The decline is not huge, but it is significant in the context of the oil-for-loan deals and the capacity utilization rate of Venezuelan refineries. It is likely that Caracas will seek to import more fuels to satisfy its daily needs of 200,000 bpd. (Baystreet: https://www.baystreet.ca/articles/commodities.aspx?articleid=31056)

 

Venezuela lost over 200,000 bpd of oil production in 2017

According to opposition Congressman and economist José Guerra, Venezuela is in the worst of the worlds, by losing market and with low prices in a context where the government shut foreign financing. The chair of the Standing Committee of Finance and Economic Development of the Venezuelan National Assembly (AN), José Guerra, warned that in the middle of the political standoff, Venezuelans are not aware that the economic issue is worsening at fast pace. Guerra explained that two elements contribute to exacerbate the economic crisis in Venezuela: “first, the concomitant fall of oil production and prices; second, the pronounced depreciation of the bolivar.” (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/guerra-venezuela-lost-over-200000-bpd-oil-production-2017_658331)

 

Portugal investigates fraud linked to PDVSA funds

Portugal is investigating alleged appropriation of funds belonging to Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA that were channeled through now-defunct Portuguese bank Banco Espirito Santo between 2009 and 2014, PDVSA said on Saturday. PDVSA's reputation has been tarnished in recent years by high-profile corruption investigations including guilty pleas by two U.S.-based contractors who authorities said ran a US$ 1 billion corruption scheme associated with PDVSA contracts. Venezuela's opposition-led Congress last year said about US$ 11 billion in funds went missing at PDVSA while Rafael Ramirez, currently Venezuela's U.N. envoy, was at the helm from 2004 to 2014. Ramirez slammed the report as "irresponsible lies." (Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-pdvsa-idUSKBN19F0SL; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/portugal-spain-probe-into-diversion-pdvsa-funds_658327)

 

Commodities

Venezuelan families now pay 4 times as much for food, reduce intake

According to the prestigious CENDES think tank within the Venezuelan Teachers Federation, families here must now pay 4.3 times as much for the same basic products they were able to purchase last year, as prices rise and their purchasing power shrinks. Last month, families needed 15.2 minimum wages to buy the 58 components of the basic food product basket. This means a minimum wage covers barely 6.6% of the basket. Venezuelan family daily intake has become lower due to scarcity and high prices. They still have lunch, but do without breakfast or dinner on a daily basis. More in Spanish:  (El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/noticias/economia/ano-familias-pagaron-cuatro-veces-mas-por-cesta-alimentaria_188978; http://www.el-nacional.com/noticias/economia/familias-reducen-porciones-comida-por-escasez-altos-precios_189009)

 

Economy & Finance

Venezuela in talks with NOMURA to sell fixed-income securities -sources

Venezuela's central bank is seeking to sell fixed-income securities to NOMURA Holdings Inc as a way of raising cash amid an economic crisis, an opposition deputy and a finance industry source said on Thursday, only weeks after a similar deal embroiled the Japanese bank in controversy. Opposition legislators this month publicly chided NOMURA for participating along with GOLDMAN SACHS Group Inc in a US$ 2.9 billion bond operation that helped the government of President Nicolas Maduro bolster the country's flagging foreign currency reserves. The talks revolve around US$ 710 million in securities known as credit-linked notes that were issued by NOMURA to Venezuela in 2008, according to the finance industry source, as a way for the then-prosperous country to invest its plentiful oil revenue. Venezuela, struggling under triple-digit inflation and Soviet-style product shortages as its socialist economy unravels, is willing to sell the notes back to NOMURA at a discount before the notes mature. "NOMURA is buying back notes that are held by the central bank," opposition legislator Angel Alvarado, who is part of a broad effort to pressure global banks not to provide financing to Venezuela, told Reuters. "The government is continuing with its desperate strategy of selling off assets because its cash-flow limitations." Venezuela's Central Bank Governor Ricardo Sanguino denied it was in negotiations with NOMURA, but Venezuela has recently negotiated such deals through intermediaries. Alvarado on Thursday published letters by Congress chief Julio Borges to U.S. regulatory agencies including the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) asking for a probe into Nomura and Goldman for the May bond operation. "The pricing and spread paid by each institution to Dinosaur (an intermediary) suggest price fixing and above-market commissions," read the letters. "We believe there is enough evidence to open an investigation against GOLDMAN SACHS and NOMURA." Following the uproar over its purchase of PDVSA bonds in May, GOLDMAN issued a statement that cited the presence of an intermediary in the operation, noting that it therefore did not directly do business with the Venezuelan government. Borges' letters describes this argument as "subterfuge" because neither institution has the financial resources for such an operation. (Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-nomura-hldgs-idUSKBN19D2GE)

 

Venezuelan dictator’s Wall St. lifeline

Wall Street continues to trade Venezuelan oil bonds issued in 2014, helping to get the country out of debt, writes Jeff Jacoby for Townhall. The problem: These “hunger bonds” line the pockets of investors while “Maduro’s access to cash and his grip on power remain intact.” Though Jacoby is uneasy with the free world’s role in boosting an oppressive regime, he admits there are no easy answers: “Cutting off Maduro’s access to cash might lead to even worse repression and hunger. Propping up his regime by buying Venezuelan debt could have the same effect.”


 

Rift at Venezuela broker-dealer TORINO leads to founder's exit

The co-founder of one of the most respected broker-dealers focused on Venezuela left the company amid a disagreement about the firm’s direction. Jorge Piedrahita departed New York-based TORINO Capital on June 13 after he unsuccessfully pushed to expand its businesses in Argentina, Brazil and Central America to colleagues who favored an all-in approach on Venezuela, which has some of the world’s riskiest and highest yielding bonds amid a dearth of official data that makes any insights on the country more valuable. The emerging-market investment bank hired Francisco Rodriguez, a former Bank of America Corp. economist and one-time head of Venezuela’s congressional budget office, last year to beef up its research on the chaotic, oil-rich nation. The firm, which has about a dozen employees in New York, also includes five research assistants in Caracas who assist Rodriguez with his reports on Venezuela’s ever-changing politics, default odds and foreign-exchange systems. (Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-27/rift-at-venezuela-broker-dealer-torino-leads-to-founder-s-exodus)

 

Whoops! CITIGROUP's valuation flub leads to a quick rating reversal

First, there were Goldman Sachs’s “hunger bonds.” Now, Venezuela’s giving another Wall Street bank fits. CITIGROUP cut shares of Latin American e-commerce behemoth MERCADOLIBRE to neutral just four days after calling them a buy. Turns out analyst Paola Mello had overestimated its valuation due to a mixup about the outlook for long-term revenue growth in Venezuela. One sympathizes with Mello. It’s incredibly difficult to make forecasts related to Venezuela with any degree of certitude at the moment, given that annual inflation is estimated at 600%, businesses must cope with myriad official and unofficial exchange rates, and the country has been wracked with deadly anti-government protests amid food shortages. (Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-23/whoops-citigroup-valuation-flub-brings-quick-reversal-on-rating)

 

Politics and International Affairs

Pressure mounts on Maduro

On Monday, citizens, students, politicians and activists shut down the streets of Caracas and several cities around Venezuela, following a call by the Democratic Unity opposition coalition to interrupt all traffic for 4 hours to protest government repression and the call for what they call a “fraudulent” and unconstitutional National Constituent Assembly. National Guard and Police tried to curtail their activities by gassing protesters, who quickly reassembled. A group of workers were arrested as they tried to block the main thoroughfare in Caracas, the Francisco Fajardo thruway. During the evening violence, burning and looting broke out at several locations, particularly in the city of Maracay, a military bastion around 70 miles West of Caracas, which was formerly a pro-Chavez stronghold. Demonstrators are holding rallies on an almost daily basis to demand Maduro’s resignation and new elections. Thousands of anti-government protesters once again took to the streets on Saturday in opposition organized marches to military bases around the country to demonstrate against the killing of an unarmed 22-year-old activist who was shot dead by a military police sergeant on Thursday. David Vallenilla, 22, was shot at close range by a military police sergeant, apparently with rubber bullets, as youths tried to pull down the fence around an air force base in Caracas and threw rocks at officials who had fired tear gas from inside. His father, describing himself as a former boss and friend of President Nicolas Maduro on Friday urged an investigation into the killing. Demonstrators rallied outside La Carlota air base where the protester was shot dead – and were greeted with tear gas and rubber bullets, sending protesters running. Though most of the demonstrators protested with banners and slogans, another small group entered the air base throwing rocks and Molotov cocktails after breaking through the railings around it. Maduro warned on Saturday, during a speech marking Independence Day, that some of those detained would face a military trial and would be “severely” punished. “Desperation, hatred, and fury thrive among the enemies of the fatherland,” said Maduro, describing the OAS’s inability to produce a statement on Venezuela as a victory for the country. Seventy-five people have died in the protests over the past three months. (Euro News: https://uk.news.yahoo.com/pressure-mounts-venezuela-maduro-005433128.html9; http://www.euronews.com/2017/06/25/clashes-in-caracas-as-venezuela-opposition-rally-over-activists-death; Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2438824&CategoryId=10717; Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKBN19E2G8; The Atlanta Black Star: http://atlantablackstar.com/2017/06/26/protests-continue-unabated-politically-torn-venezuela/; MSN: http://www.msn.com/en-gb/video/other/venezuela-students-protest-against-bid-to-rewrite-constitution/vp-BBDk45E; and more in Spanish: Notiminuto: http://www.notiminuto.com/noticia/en-fotosi-asi-transcurre-trancazo-en-caracas/)

 

Heroes or agitators? Young lawmakers on Venezuela's front line

A group of young Venezuelan lawmakers has risen to prominence on the violent front line of anti-government marches that have shaken this country for three months, bringing 75 deaths. One was knocked off his feet by a water cannon. Another was pushed into a drain. Most have been pepper-sprayed, tear-gassed, beaten and hit by pellet shots. On the streets daily leading demonstrators, pushing at security barricades and sometimes picking up teargas canisters to hurl back at police and soldiers, the energetic National Assembly members are heroes to many opposition supporters. The dozen or so legislators, all in their late 20s or early 30s, belong mainly to the Justice First and Popular Will parties, which are promoting civil disobedience against a president they term a dictator. They march largely without protective gear - unlike the masked and shield-bearing youths around them - though supporters and aides sometimes form circles to guard them. They do not receive salaries since funds to the National Assembly were squeezed, living instead off gifts from relatives and friends. And some still reside at home with parents. Some have dubbed the band of lawmakers "the class of 2007" for their roots in a student movement a decade ago that helped the opposition to a rare victory against Maduro's popular predecessor Hugo Chavez in a referendum. State airlines refuse to sell them tickets, and private carriers are under pressure to do the same, meaning they cannot fly around the country. Some have also had passports confiscated or annulled, blocking foreign travel. Their mantra is peaceful protest, and indeed when marches have not been blocked - such as to a state TV office and the Catholic Church headquarters - there has been no trouble. But some admit to tossing back gas canisters or throwing the odd stone, and there has been criticism the legislators have not done enough to restrain violence within opposition ranks, from burning property to lynching someone. But to President Nicolas Maduro's socialist government, they are the chief "terrorists" in a U.S.-backed coup plot aimed at controlling the vast oil wealth of the nation. Officials accuse the lawmakers of paying youths and even children as young as 12 to attack security forces, block roads and burn property. They have threatened to jail them. The lawmakers scoff at that, saying they now carry the nation's dreams for change while an ever-more desperate Maduro is clinging to power against the majority's will. (Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-lawmakers-idUSKBN19H0E8)

 

Switch in military leadership seen as bolstering PSUV faction

President Nicolas Maduro has appointed Admiral Remigio Ceballos Ichaso to replace Defense Minister General Vladimir Padrino Lopez as head the country's Strategic Operational Command, a position that gives Ichaso operational control of the Venezuelan armed forces. A Stratfor source has said that Diosdado Cabello, an influential powerbroker in the country, influenced Maduro's decision. The move made June 20 could be an attempt by Cabello to shield himself and his allies in the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) from pressure by members of the armed forces. In his new position, Ichaso gains the power to issue orders directly to the country's eight lower-level regional defense zone commanders. Padrino Lopez remains defense minister. The PSUV has been riven into opposing factions that disagree on a constitutional rewrite ordered by Maduro. A core of ruling party elites allied with the president intends to rewrite parts of the constitution to cement their hold over the country's institutions amid Venezuela's deepening economic crisis. The country's political opposition, along with the dissident Chavistas, perceives the involvement of the armed forces, whether through political pressure or a coup, as vital to ending the constitutional redo. Therefore, it's not surprising that, faced with a dissident movement within his own party and an increasingly disloyal military, that Cabello would try to shield himself through his influence with the military. It's customary for the Venezuelan armed forces to reshuffle its commanders at this time of year, and Cabello appears to have used his influence in this process to protect himself. Still, Venezuela's economic crisis is set to grow more intense, and political confrontation by the opposition and dissident Chavista faction against the government will only increase. As the constitutional rewrite process proceeds, it will trigger additional protests, and the armed forces' loyalty will remain in doubt despite the PSUV's influence in appointing its leadership. (Stratfor: https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/venezuela-switch-military-leadership-seen-bolstering-psuv-faction)

 

Maduro invites 5 nations to facilitate talks with opposition

President Nicolas Maduro has announced that representatives of Uruguay, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Saint Vincent & Grenadines will be arriving within the next few weeks, to help create a communications thread between his regime and the opposition so that they can return to a dialogue. At the same time, he said Venezuela could return to the Organization of American States (OAS) if Secretary General Luis Almagro resigns. In referring to international rejection of his National Constituent Assembly, Maduro said “only we Venezuelans decide our affairs”. More in Spanish: (Notiminuto: http://www.notiminuto.com/noticia/pdte-maduro-la-oea-que-se-olvide-de-venezuela/

 

OAS head offers to quit if Maduro holds free elections, frees political prisoners

After President Nicolas Maduro suggested this week Venezuela could return to the Organization of American States (OAS) if its Secretary General Luis Almagro stepped down, Almagro hit back: “Here is my response: I will resign from the General Secretariat the day that free, fair and transparent national elections are held without impediments,” Almagro said in a video message posted on Twitter. Almagro conditioned his resignation offer on a long list of demands, including free elections, the release of hundreds of political prisoners, respect for the National Assembly, a guarantee of Supreme Court independence and the opening of a humanitarian aid channel into the country. Almagro recognizes that the list is long. “Regrettably, there are many things that are necessary for the freedom of Venezuela. In exchange for the freedom of Venezuela, I offer my post. Because we will never resign, we will not resign, until we have in our hands the freedom of Venezuela,” he says near the end of the video. Maduro offered no immediate response to Almagro’s offer. But he has labeled the OAS a puppet of Washington, and he accuses opposition activists of sowing chaos to plot a coup against him. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2438790&CategoryId=10717; Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKBN19F0OU; Euro News: https://uk.news.yahoo.com/pressure-mounts-venezuela-maduro-005433128.html9)

 

Attorney General says Venezuela has become a “police state

Attorney General Luisa Ortega Díaz says that the judiciary’s subservience to the secret police has made this country into a “police state”, not one where citizen rights are upheld. “They have put the cart before the horses here, the SEBIN (Bolivarian Intelligence Service) dictates guidelines to the judiciary, and they obey. This is not the rule of law, this is a police state”, she says. Ortega adds that the Supreme Tribunal (TSJ) here violated the National Assembly through a set of rulings that disrupt constitutional order, and that “if the Constituent Assembly consolidates itself, Venezuelans will undergo the darkest times of all our republic’s history. If this project goes through, democracy will be definitely undone.”  More in Spanish: (Noticiero Venevisión, http://www.noticierovenevision.net/noticias/politica/fiscal-ortega-diaz-afirma-que-venezuela-es-un-estado-policial)

 

Maduro’s son, wife, and closest supporters nominated to National Constituent Assembly

Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra, the 27-year-old only son of President Nicolás Maduro, expects to become one of the 545 members of the National Constituent Assembly that Maduro proposes to elect on July 30th, to rewrite Venezuela’s constitution. Maduro Guerra, who has held several public positions in his father’s administration since 2013, joins First Lady Cilia Flores, former Foreign Minister Delcy Rodríguez, legislator Captain Diosdado Cabello, and several other Maduro confidants in the roster of pro-regime nominees for the proposed Assembly. The Democratic Unity opposition coalition has refused to take part in the process, calling it a “fraud”. More in Spanish: (Notiminuto: http://www.notiminuto.com/noticia/hijo-de-maduro-se-postulo-a-la-asamblea-constituyente/

 

Venezuela risks becoming Caribbean 'North Korea,' former leaders say

Two former Latin American presidents said the world is running out of time to find a solution to the crisis in Venezuela as President Nicolas Maduro aims to consolidate power over the country. Despite widespread protests, Maduro’s push to “put a group of his friends in what is called a ‘constituent assembly,would be the end of democracy and the annihilation of the Republic of Venezuela,” said Jorge Quiroga, former president of Bolivia. That election “will install a Soviet state in Venezuela, liquidate democracy, end the Congress, cancel elections and turn Venezuela into a sort of Caribbean ‘North Korea’,” he said. Joined by former Colombian President Andres Pastrana, Quiroga spoke to journalists at the Vatican on 23rd June on the deteriorating situation in Venezuela and attempts to diffuse the crisis following their meeting with Cardinal Pietro Parolin, Vatican secretary of state. (The Catholic Universe: http://www.thecatholicuniverse.com/venezuela-risks-becoming-caribbean-north-korea-former-leaders-say-13568)

 

Ecuador ex-President claims Venezuela leader is non-violent

Former Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa claims Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro is a good person who is non-violent. Asked about violence stemming from a political and economic crisis in Venezuela and nearly daily street protests against Maduro’s leftist government, he replied: “Oftentimes the violence comes from the right. There are groups there that want to create chaos and violence, but what you read in the newspapers is that the repression and violence comes from the security forces, from the government. And that’s not the case”. He claimed Venezuela is under permanent attack from foreign powers, saying the assault was media-driven and economic in nature and was doing that country a great deal of harm. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2438789&CategoryId=10717)

 

US urges global action on "tragic situation" in Venezuela

The United States mission at the United Nations (UN) demanded on Thursday “action” in view of the “tragic situation” in Venezuela. Venezuelan "people are starving while their government tramples their democracy," said US Ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, in a statement. Her appeal was made shortly after the end of the meeting in Cancún, Mexico, of the Organization of American States (OAS) General Assembly, without any resolution intended to cancel a national constituent assembly attempted by the Venezuelan government to re-write the constitution. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/urges-global-action-tragic-situation-venezuela_658325)

 

The Netherlands prepare to evacuate citizens in Venezuela

The Netherlands government is preparing to evacuate Dutch citizens living in Venezuela due to social unrest here. Foreign Minister Bert Koenders and Kingdom Affairs Minister Ronald Plasterk have sent a joint letter to the Dutch Parliament expressing their deep concern and have for some time advised Dutch citizens to avoid unnecessary travel to Venezuela. More in Spanish: (Noticiero Venevisión, http://www.noticierovenevision.net/noticias/internacional/gobierno-holandes-prepara-evacuacion-de-sus-ciudadanos-que-habitan-en-venezuela)

 

Historian claims Venezuela's government hopes for international sanctions

Historian Agustin Blanco Munoz of the Central University of Venezuela says it is unlikely that international pressure can make the Maduro regime restore the rule of law. He compares the Venezuelan government to Fidel Castro's communist regime in Cuba, which was effectively expelled from the OAS in 1962 and hit with an expanded trade embargo. "The OAS helped them stay in power another 55 years," he said. "Had the US bombarded Cuba with food and medication, would it be different today? Did the supply shortage actually harm Castro?" That is why Blanco Munoz does not believe that Maduro and his supporters would be upset about sanctions. In fact, Venezuelan vice-president Diosdado Cabello had announced before the OAS meeting: "They would do us a favor." Blanco Munoz doubts that the OAS would impose sanctions against Venezuela, although he adds: "But if they do, PSUV leaders will throw a party." (DW: http://www.dw.com/en/venezuelas-government-hopes-for-international-sanctions/a-38174996)

 

His country in turmoil, Royals’ Escobar balances baseball with thoughts of Venezuela

Alcides Escobar has never endured a season like this. He has never performed this poorly at the plate, even after years of declining offense. Never felt the mental weight of a slump this deep. Never felt the pressure of looming free agency, either. And yet, when Escobar discusses the challenges of 2017, he is not just talking about the batting average that finally surpassed .200. On most nights, when the game is over and the at-bats are done, Escobar returns to the clubhouse and grabs his phone, scouring the latest news from back home. “It’s hard,” Escobar said in a recent interview in Spanish. “When you get to the stadium you have to focus on your job. But when it’s done, you start looking at Twitter and Instagram and reading the news and your mind just goes back to Venezuela. It’s where I was born and raised, I always offer support to my people. I know something better will come.” Escobar, of course, is not alone. On opening day, there were 77 Venezuelan players on major-league rosters, more than 10% of the league. Many of them are among the game’s greatest stars, from Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera to Houston’s Jose Altuve to Salvador Perez, Escobar’s friend and teammate. Across baseball, more and more Venezuelan players have begun speaking out against the violence against protesters. Yet many remain reluctant to publicly criticize the government. Escobar has sought to occupy a space in the middle. Every day, he retweets articles about the protests. In May, Escobar spoke about his country in a video for La Vida, a branch of the Hall of Fame that celebrates Latin baseball. “I hope it doesn’t become worse,” he said, looking toward the camera. “I hope that we don’t see more deaths, that we don’t have more violence.” The message came a month after Perez addressed the situation in an Instagram post, stating that he was neither a “Chavista” — a supporter of former president Chavez — nor in opposition. (The Kansas City Star: http://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb/kansas-city-royals/article158334814.html)

 

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.

Thursday, May 11, 2017

May 11, 2017


International Trade

781 containers have arrived at La Guaira port from Cartagena, Colombia, bearing 4,000 tons of food; 336.76 tons of personal care products; 685.7 tons of medication and 21,000 tons of other products. According to the Port Authority, arriving products include wheat flour, frozen fish, cooking oil, rice, cereal, lentils, sugar, apples, pears, toilet paper, sanitary napkins, shampoo, brushes, feeding bottles, soap, moist towels, hemodialysis kits, intravenous solution, and supplies for medicine production. Also, metallic structures, construction material, clothing, spare parts for vehicles, appliances and cattle equipment. More in Spanish: (El Universal; http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/economia/ingresan-por-puerto-guaira-781-contenedores-mercancia_652022; Bolipuertos, http://www.bolipuertos.gob.ve/noticia.aspx?id=36308;
El Mundo, http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/economia/politicas-publicas/arribaron-a-la-guaira-781-contenedores-con-diverso.aspx)

 

Fertilizer and herbicides are offloading at Puerto Cabello
150,000 sacks of fertilizers from Barranquilla, Colombia, aboard the ship “Manuel Gual”, consigned to state agency AGROPATRIA. At the same time, the ship “Lion” was offloading 7 containers of Pendimetaline, a chemical herbicide used to control undergrowth. More in Spanish: (Bolipuertos, http://www.bolipuertos.gob.ve/noticia.aspx?id=36304; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/economia/descargan-fertilizantes-herbicidas-puerto-cabello_651808)

 

Oil & Energy

Venezuela's main refineries operating at record lows
Three of Venezuela's four refineries are working at record lows due to equipment malfunctioning and lack of crude and spare parts, according to PDVSA internal reports seen by Reuters on Wednesday and workers from the facilities. The Paraguana Refining Center, which includes Venezuela's Cardon and Amuay refineries, was processing 409,000 barrels per day (bpd) as of Monday, or 43% of its installed capacity of 955,000 bpd, according to the data. Venezuela's third largest refinery, the 187,000-barrel-per-day Puerto la Cruz, is operating at minimum levels due to problems at two of its three distillation units, said union leader Jose Bodas and a worker who asked not to be identified. The current processing levels at the main refineries are similar to 2012, when a severe explosion that killed more than 40 people at Amuay significantly reduced operations at PDVSA's main facilities, forcing the company to import fuels. (Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-refinery-operations-pdvsa-idUSKBN18630Z)

 

Venezuelan crude sales to the U.S. bounced in April
Venezuelan crude sales to the United States recovered in April compared to previous months to reach 741,000 barrels per day (bpd), its highest level since November, due to a larger supply of diluted and upgraded oil, according to Thomson Reuters trade flows data. Oil upgrades capable of converting Orinoco Belt's extra heavy crude into exportable grades have increased processing in recent weeks after working partially earlier this year, allowing more exports, sources close to the projects said. Sales of Zuata 30, Venezuela's lightest upgraded crude, to the United States almost doubled to 178,000 bpd in April compared with the previous month, according to the data. Exports of diluted crude oil (DCO) made with extra heavy oil and heavy naphtha increased 17% compared to March. (Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-usa-oil-idUSKBN1862Q0)

 

UN reports sharp drop in Cuban exports of refined oil products
Cuban exports of refined oil products fell about 97% between 2013 and 2016, according to a United Nations trade report released this week, reflecting falling supplies from its political ally Venezuela. The UN COMTRADE annual report put the value of Cuban fuel exports last year at US$ 15.4 million, compared to more than US$ 500 million in 2013. The amounts for 2015 and 2014, when oil prices collapsed, were US$ 163.5 million and US$ 336.8, respectively. The figures were based on import data from reporting countries, which may make them incomplete. Cuba depends on socialist-ruled Venezuela for up to 70% of its energy needs, including re-exports. Havana gets the oil as part of an exchange that sends thousands of Cuban doctors and other professionals to Venezuela. But a severe economic crisis here nation has led to a decline in oil-related supplies since 2014. Cuba began rationing electricity and fuel to state companies a year ago, and has experienced gasoline shortages more recently. Diplomats, suppliers and joint venture partners report the government has fallen behind on some payments. In 2016, Cuba received 87,550 barrels per day (bpd) of Venezuelan oil and fuels, 27% less than in 2015. In 2017, shipments of fuels have declined further, according to internal data, seen by Reuters, from Venezuelan state-run oil firm PDVSA. Cuba, in turn, has looked to Russia and others to try to make up the shortfall. A tanker with 249,000 barrels of refined fuel products from Russia is due to arrive in Cuba on May 10, bringing back memories of when the Soviet Union supplied all the island nation's energy needs. (Reuters: http://www.reuters.com/article/cuba-energy-trade-idUSL1N1IB09A)

 

Commodities

Amid chaos in Venezuela, infant deaths, malaria cases skyrocket
Infant and maternal deaths and cases of malaria are skyrocketing in Venezuela, which is grappling with severe medical shortages. Confirmed malaria cases in 2016 stood at 240,000, a 76% increase over 2015. Maternal deaths rose 66% to 756. Last year, 11,466 infants died, a 30% increase, according to new records recently released by Venezuela's health ministry. It's the first health data released by the government in nearly two years. The staggering increases illustrate how badly Venezuela lacks basic medicine, equipment and supplies to treat even the simplest of injuries at public hospitals. "If you need to have an operation, nowadays, you must bring your own medicines to the hospital," says Eugenia Morin, a 59-year old the housewife who protested the government last week. "There are no supplies to attend the most basic emergencies." According to statistics released by the Venezuelan Pharmaceutical Federation, by June 2016, the country was already facing a shortage of more than 80% of the medicines doctors need. And it's not just medicine. Patients are responsible for any material needed to treat them: needles, gauze pads, saline solution. When patients can get the money together to purchase these items, they become targets -- hospital rooms are not safe from thieves looking to sell medication on the black market, or fellow patients in desperation. And more than 13,000 doctors -- about 20% of the country's medical workforce, have left the country in recent years due to the collapse of the health sector. The health figures only represent one of many crises in Venezuela, which was once the richest nation in Latin America and is still home to the world's largest oil reserves. (CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/10/health/venezuela-malaria-infant-mortality/)

 

Fruit and vegetable transport is paralyzed by protests
200 cities could be hit by shortages of vegetables and fruit in the Andean region due to a halt in transportation because of protests and insecurity. Transport operators at Seboruco, El Cobre and La Grita, who supply fruit and vegetable to 60% of the nation have stopped their trucks due to attacks in protests and road insecurity. More in Spanish: (Noticiero Venevisión, http://www.noticierovenevision.net/noticias/economia/200-ciudades-podrian-quedar-afectadas-por-desabastecimiento-de-hortalizas-y-frutas; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/economia/productores-hortalizas-solicitan-mayor-seguridad-vialidad_651899)

 

Disturbances are hurting beef distribution nationwide
Armando Chacin, president of the Maracaibo Lake Area Cattle Federation, says beef distribution nationwide has hurt beef distribution because transportation operators do not want to put their personnel, cargo and units at risk due to protests. He says cattle processing at slaughterhouses remains “totally normal”. More in Spanish: (El Mundo, http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/economia/gremios/disturbios-inciden-en-la-distribucion-de-carne-a-n.aspx#ixzz4glVPEksN)

 

Vegetable production could drop 95%, farmers have not received fertilizers for 6 months
Gerson Pabón, director general of the Agriculture Federation (FEDEAGRO) warns that vegetable production could drop 95% this year because the government has limited fertilizer supplies to cereal production in Barinas, Cojedes and Portuguesa, and abandoned all the other areas. More in Spanish: (Ultima Hora Digital, http://ultimahoradigital.com/2017/05/desde-hace-6-meses-no-despachan-fertilizantes-a-productores-de-hortalizas/)

 

Economy & Finance

International reserves drop down to lowest level in 15 years
FOREX held by Venezuela’s Central Bank to fund imports, repay depts., meet contingencies and back up exchange rates were US$ 10.137 billion as of May 5th, a 19% drop over the past year and their lowest level in 15 years, according to official data. The amount offers much less coverage than in 2002 because the nation’s FOREX debt is much higher, it depends much more on imports and currency controls allocated FOREX very inefficiently. Disposable FOREX reserves are now only 10% of the total amount, and were 68% of it in 2002. Two thirds of current reserves are in gold bullion, so there is scant liquidity and a very narrow margin for maneuvering. Analysts estimate the FOREX deficit at US$ 10 billion, which means companies cannot import supplies required for production of food and medicine. The Central Bank itself reports that the National Stabilization Fund is down to US$ 3 million, a meaningless sum as compared to savings in other oil producing nations. Central Bank statistics showed that dollar debt quadrupled between Q3 2004 and Q3 2015, from US$ 27.053 billion up to US$ 120.204 billion. Indebtedness did not improve infrastructure or diversify the economy, and weighs heavily on public finance. Venezuela and PDVSA still must pay up US$ 9.691 billion this year. The next large payment comes due in October-November, for US$ 3.526 billion. Analysts say that the only way the Maduro regime can increase imports, relieve scarcity and pull out of recession is through financing, but investors are looking at a high risk due to scant reserves, low oil prices, political conflict and weak institutions – where the Supreme Tribunal has declared the National Assembly in contempt, and the legislature – in turn – has made it clear to foreign financial institutions that any credit operations that do not have its approval will be considered illegal. More in Spanish: (Notiminuto: http://www.notiminuto.com/noticia/las-reservas-internacionales-caen-al-nivel-mas-bajo-en-15-anos/)

 

Venezuela's 99.5% Currency Plunge Shows Why Protests Rage: Chart
President Nicolas Maduro has overseen an unprecedented depreciation in his country’s currency since taking office, with the bolivar now down 99.5% to 5,100 per dollar in the black market that everyday Venezuelans use. The sharp decline has wiped out savings and made buying imported goods all but impossible, helping fuel the anger directed at the government in street protests that have turned deadly in recent weeks. While Maduro has raised the minimum wage almost 20 times during his tenure, it’s still the equivalent of just US$ 40 a month. (Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-10/venezuela-s-99-5-currency-plunge-shows-why-protests-rage-chart)

 

"Economic recovery in Venezuela is not viable without a political solution"
The Venezuelan Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FEDECÁMARAS) decided on Tuesday not to attend the meetings called by the Presidential Commission for the Constituent Assembly arguing that this body will be unable to solve the country core problems. “It is not time for a constituent assembly,” said Fedecámaras President Francisco Martínez, accompanied by the members of the expanded board of directors. “The country calls for solutions to the problems that afflict the people and go deeper and deeper day by day (…) The call to a national constituent assembly in the set terms, rather than solving, will deepen the crisis, as it lacks the legitimacy afforded by the support of the sovereign people.” Aquiles Hopkins, incoming President of the nation’s Agriculture Confederation (FEDEAGRO) concurs, saying: “A constituent assembly is not the solution to the nation’s problems which are clearly specified, and will only be solved within the Constitution”. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/economic-recovery-venezuela-unviable-without-political-solution_651974; and more in Spanish: El Mundo, http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/actualidad/politica/fedeagro-dice-que-la-constituyente-no-solucionara-.aspx#ixzz4glUvAV4s)

 

Politics and International Affairs

Venezuela protesters fling feces at soldiers; unrest takes 2 more lives
Young Venezuelan protesters lobbed bottles and bags of feces at soldiers who fought with tear gas on Wednesday to block the latest march in more than a month of nationwide protests against socialist President Nicolas Maduro. The extraordinary scenes, in what was dubbed the "Shit March" on the main highway through Caracas, came as thousands of opposition supporters again poured onto the streets decrying Venezuela's economic crisis and demanding elections. Many carried stones and so-called "Poopootov cocktails" - feces stuffed into small glass bottles - that they threw when National Guard troops blocked their path, firing gas and turning water cannons on the crowds. Protesters marching in downtown Caracas chanted: "Who are we? Venezuela! What do we want? Freedom!". At that point, militiamen approached, all dressed in dark colors with pieces of cloth covering their faces. One masked militia member fired several shots into the air. The militia later dispersed after officers intervened. Opposition leaders have blamed armed pro-government groups known as "collectives" for a number of protest deaths. At least 93 people were injured in Caracas and demonstrator Miguel Castillo was killed. Authorities also announced that Anderson Dugarte, 32, died from a gunshot wound he suffered Monday at a protest in Merida. The violence pushed the death toll to at least 38 in more than a month of street protests and political turmoil. Castillo had studied communications at Santa Marta University and friends and opposition leaders vowed to march to the site of his death Thursday morning. Interior Minister Nestor Reverol said in comments broadcast by state television that Dugarte was killed by a sniper linked to the opposition's Democratic Unity coalition. The opposition are seeking to vary tactics to keep momentum going and supporters energized. The government accused the opposition of breaking international treaties on biological and chemical weapons by throwing feces. In downtown Caracas, government supporters also rallied, dancing salsa and waving pictures of Maduro's predecessor Hugo Chavez who remains venerated by many, especially the poor.  Maduro and his allies appear to be hoping the opposition will run out of steam and are banking on a rise in oil prices to help assuage four years of recession. They are seizing on vandalism by young opposition hotheads who burn rubbish in the streets and smash public property, to depict the whole movement as intent on violence. The protests so far have failed to garner massive support from poorer, traditionally pro-Chavez sectors of Venezuela's 30 million people. But a bigger cross-section of society has been apparent at recent marches, some of which drew hundreds of thousands. Looting has been breaking out in some cities, especially at night. (Reuters: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKBN1862V3; Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2436164&CategoryId=10718; Al Jazeera:
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/05/venezuela-protests-170510215958054.html; CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/10/world/venezuela-victims/; CBS News: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/venezuela-protests-nicolas-maduro-dead-poopootov-cocktail-feces/; ABC News: http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/dozens-hurt-dead-violent-day-protests-venezuela-47334107; DW: http://www.dw.com/en/pro-maduro-militia-suppress-venezuela-democracy-demos/a-38793644)

 

Opposition leader arrested at pre-march gathering
National Assembly lawmakers on Wednesday denounced that Venezuela’s Bolivarian National Police (PNB) arrested a leader in the Popular Will (VP) party, Sergio Contreras, who was with a group of opposition members in downtown Caracas preparing to stage a march to the Supreme Court building. Opposition lawmaker Gaby Arellano told reporters that Contreras, an assistant to parliamentary First Vice President Freddy Guevara, was arrested in the La Candelaria sector of town. The police took him away “for no reason,” she said. “We were gathering (for the march) and comrade Sergio Contreras ... with a megaphone in his hand, was viciously attacked with tear gas canisters and subdued by more than 15 PNB officers commanded by Officer Duque, upon whom I threw myself to get (Contreras) away from them, and they beat me also,” she said. Arellano said that Contreras was beaten in a “barbaric manner,” and that lawmakers Luis Florido, Jorge Millan and Winston Flores, as well as Arellano herself, were also attacked by the police. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2436154&CategoryId=10717)

 

Venezuela hauls protesters before military tribunals to face up to 30 years behind bars
Human rights activists say more than 250 detained protesters have been put before military justice over the last week — a sudden upsurge in use of a practice they say violates the constitution, which limits military courts to "offences of a military nature." Some lawyers and opposition leaders put the number far higher. "The growing use of military tribunals to judge civilians demonstrates the absolute determination of Venezuelan authorities to asphyxiate the growing protests and terrorize any person who contemplates the possibility of expressing opinions," said Erika Guevara Rosas, Americas director for Amnesty International. President Nicolas Maduro's administration says the courts are part of emergency measures necessary to ensure national security against what they decry as foreign-backed attempts to violently oust the socialist government from power. "Security agencies are deployed in Carabobo to find those responsible for instigating rebellion and crime," wrote General Antonio Jose Benavides Torres, commander of Venezuela's Bolivarian National Guard, on Twitter. Many rights activists see the increasing reliance on military tribunals to try civilian protesters as an echo of the dark days of the 1970s and 1980s, when military dictatorships in Chile, Brazil and elsewhere bypassed civilian jurisdictions to prosecute political opponents accused of being national security threats tied to international communism. "The governments of Latin America have experienced this in the past, we have fought against impunity and we have said, 'Never again,"' said Luis Almagro, secretary general of the Organization of American States. "We cannot remain silent in the face of such obvious abuse of the basic human rights of Venezuelans." Some opposition leaders believe the use of the military tribunals reflects Maduro's weakening grip on power and a desire to circumvent someone who's become a surprising irritant: Venezuela's semi-autonomous chief prosecutor Luisa Ortega, who has shown signs of unusual independence. She was the first official to denounce a March ruling by the loyalist Supreme Court that stripped the opposition congress of its last powers, calling it a "rupture" of the constitutional order, helping prompt the court to back off the ruling. Nearly all of those facing military courts face the same two charges, according to attorneys: Inciting rebelling and vilifying military officials. Most of those cases so far are in the northern state of Carabobo. Military officials have activated an emergency protocol there known as Plan Zamora, few details of which have been made public. Amnesty International said Wednesday more than 250 people have been detained and placed in the hands of military justice. Alfredo Romero, executive director of Foro Penal, a lawyers' co-operative that defends activists, told National Assembly members Tuesday that 118 people in Carabobo alone have been put before military tribunals, where he said nearly a dozen soldiers armed with automatic weapons are posted in the courtroom as cases are heard. (CBC News: http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/venezuela-protesters-military-tribunals-1.4108988; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/ngo-over-civilians-have-been-sued-military-courts_651968)

 

Venezuela’s anti-government protesters show no signs of backing down
The crisis in Venezuela is only getting worse. On Wednesday, just as on every previous day for the past six weeks, anti-government protests hit various parts of the country. We're almost getting inured to the images: smoldering barricades arrayed against riot police, security forces launching fusillades of tear gas, bloodied demonstrators being rushed out by volunteer medics. Embattled Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is grimly clinging to power. His opponents seek fresh elections, the release of political prisoners and other concessions. Maduro, the unpopular inheritor of a socialist revolution, shows no sign that he will heed those calls. “Maduro is trapped in an electoral maze of the regime’s own making,” Phil Gunson of the International Crisis Group wrote last month. “After years of using elections as plebiscites, confident that oil revenue and the charisma of the late strongman Hugo Chávez would always ensure victory, the government can now — with Chávez gone — neither muster the electoral support nor find a convincing reason not to hold a vote.” And so, the protests continue. As Maduro extends the crackdown and even hauls civilians before military tribunals, there's a growing sense that external pressure is needed to ease the crisis. All eyes are on a meeting of the Organization of American States, or OAS, expected this month, where Venezuela will be at the forefront of the agenda. Maduro has threatened to pull out of the regional alliance, which is headquartered in Washington. “Venezuela is drowning in an economic, financial, social and humanitarian crisis of gigantic proportions,” said Luis Almagro, the secretary-general of the OAS, in a recent interview with Bloomberg News. “There is a dictatorship in Venezuela, and Venezuela needs elections. The only institutional exit for the country is a general election.” Maduro has seen the erosion of his government's base, with many of Venezuela's poor — once uplifted by “chavista” populism — suffering amid the wreckage of a collapsing state. But he may now fear fractures within the ruling party and the waning support of the security services that guarantee his power.  In the meantime, protesters will keep turning out in the streets of the country's divided cities. (The Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/05/11/venezuelas-anti-government-protesters-show-no-signs-of-backing-down/?utm_term=.1f4cbbe23a9a)

 

IACHR lashes at repression; deplores rising death toll in Venezuela
The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) blasted the “repressive measures” adopted in Venezuela, in retaliation to the wave of nationwide protests started last April. The IACHR urged the Venezuelan government to stop such measures and effectively discharge its international obligations in the field of human rights, a notice stated. The IACHR specially condemned and voiced concern over the increasing number of killings, injured people and detentions en masse, in addition to militarization of the way of dealing with the demonstrations. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/iachr-lashes-repression-deplores-rising-death-toll-venezuela_651980)

 

Maduro regime allies delay OAS vote on Venezuela
The Organization of American States (OAS) has postponed a vote on calling a meeting of the Hemisphere’s Foreign Minister to deal with the Venezuelan crisis until May 15th. A large group of countries wanted to vote on the matter yesterday, but after a heated debate had to agree to postpone the vote due to opposition by some Maduro regime allies within the organization. Venezuela did not attend. The Permanent Council will meet next Monday, to vote on a new date, as per a proposal by Ecuador’s representative. Canada, which had called for the meeting, stressed that what is going on in Venezuela is “not normal”, and the situation is not improving by delays. OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro held the Maduro regime responsible for the death of young Miguel Castillo in Caracas the same day, and condemned “arbitrary and indiscriminate arrests by the Venezuelan regime.” He added “there are 38 dead to date due to the brutal repression of the Venezuelan regime against their people” More in Spanish: (Notiminuto: http://www.notiminuto.com/noticia/en-vivo-sesion-de-la-oea-sobre-venezuela/; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/politica/oea-sin-consenso-sobre-dia-reunion-cancilleres-para-caso-venezuela_652016; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/politica/almagro-imperativo-restaurar-democracia-venezuela_652088)

 

US State Department calls on Venezuela to "tend humanitarian needs," respect Constitution & National Assembly
Francisco Palmieri, Acting Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs, at the U.S. Department of State, says: “The people of Venezuela are suffering due to their government’s authoritarian repression and poor economic management Three-quarters of Venezuelans have lost weight in the past year because of food scarcity.
We are concerned that the government of President Maduro is violating Venezuela’s own constitution and is not allowing the opposition to have their voices heard, nor allowing them to organize in a way that expresses the views of the Venezuelan people. Our hemisphere has come together, particularly through the Organization of American States in defense of democracy and human rights in the region. We have taken formal steps to address the situation in Venezuela by calling a minister-level meeting
.” (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2436097&CategoryId=10717)


 

The armed forces will decide the fate of Venezuela’s regime
Before Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s president, delivered his second May Day address, spelling out plans for a new constitution, he paused to acknowledge a dozen generals, in full ceremonial uniform, were in the audience. He asked them to stand and be applauded. It was a telling moment. His future will be decided by the armed forces, not directly by the people. If they withdraw support from his beleaguered regime, change will come soon. If not, hunger and repression will continue. So far, there is little sign of dissent in the top ranks. General Vladimir Padrino López, the head of the armed forces and minister of defense, hailed Maduro’s call for a new constitution as “a clear demonstration of democratic will”. The opposition is increasingly directing its appeals to the armed forces, or to factions within them. Julio Borges, the legislature’s president, says it is time for the men in green to “break their silence”. Henrique Capriles, a potential challenger to Maduro who has been banned from seeking office for 15 years, asked ordinary soldiers to consider whether they want to “share the fate” of the doomed ruling party. The army is not the regime’s only prop. The National Guard fires tear-gas at and wield truncheons against demonstrators; informal gangs called “collectives” enforce submission to the regime in neighborhoods and are responsible for many of the 33 deaths in protests over the past month. But the armed forces, though constitutionally required to be apolitical, are the final arbiters of power. Chavismo, the movement that guides the regime, has been military-led since its inception. Officers or former officers run 11 of the 32 ministries; 11 of the 23 state governors are retired officers. Maduro has been a prolific producer of generals. On one day, last year he promoted 195 officers to that rank, bringing their number to more than 2,000. The United States somehow gets by with no more than 900 generals. The Venezuelan top brass is not a monolithic group. There are “diverse” factions, both between and within branches of the armed forces, says Rocio San Miguel, a lawyer and defense specialist. A group of “originals” fought alongside Chávez in 1992. An overlapping clique helps drug-trafficking gangs through its control of ports and airports. A bigger group of non-ideological “opportunists” dabbles in that and other businesses. These divisions matter less than the generals’ shared interest in the regime’s survival. Most profit handsomely from Maduro’s chaotic rule. Some have access to dollars at the ridiculously cheap price in bolivars set by the government. The army oversees the lucrative business of food distribution, a recipe for abuse. The lower ranks are less happy, though they are better housed than most Venezuelans and some profit from sidelines such as smuggling.  DCI, an agency that snoops on the barracks, reportedly has been hearing of “deepening disaffection”, especially in the army’s middle ranks, since February, before the latest protests began. Much of this appears linked “with mid-ranking officers barely bothering to suppress their contempt for a general staff it perceives as corrupt”. In April three lieutenants posted a video saying they rejected Maduro as commander-in-chief. They sought asylum in Colombia. General Raúl Baduel, a jailed former defense minister, has become an icon for dissenters. They share a 14-second recording in which he says he is in prison because he spurned “the scoundrels and criminals …who give you orders”. Junior soldiers, and their families, share the privations that drive Venezuelans onto the streets in protest. They are angry. But that does not mean that they will stop following orders. (The Economist: http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21721661-people-power-counts-less-armed-forces-will-decide-fate-venezuelas-regime)

 

Former Venezuelan general: Venezuela is on the verge of civil war
Retired Gen. Miguel Rodríguez Torres, 53, who served as Maduro’s interior minister in 2013 and 2014, said that large riots and protests have cropped up in every major city, including the working-class neighborhoods that once firmly supported Maduro’s government. When serving as Maduro’s interior minister, Torres’s government forces quashed anti-government protests in 2014, resulting in 43 dead including protesters and police officers. The protests died out without any concessions from the government, demoralizing Maduro’s opposition for years. Torres said things have gotten much worse since his time as interior minister, leading more protesters to take to the streets. He said that without the government getting to the economic roots of the crisis, repression will not work. Torres said Maduro fired him in 2014 after he had criticized the president’s handling of the economy, particularly his control over the currency. Today, Torres is considering running for president of Venezuela as an independent.  He also founded the Wide Movement political group which focuses on ridding itself of chavismo, the political movement of Hugo Chavez, Maduro’s socialist predecessor. “We can’t be thinking about saving chavismo now, we have to save the country,” Torres said. (The Blaze: https://www.theblaze.com/news/2017/05/10/former-venezuelan-general-venezuela-is-on-the-verge-of-civil-war/)

 

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.