May 11, 2017

International Trade

781 containers have arrived at La Guaira port from Cartagena, Colombia, bearing 4,000 tons of food; 336.76 tons of personal care products; 685.7 tons of medication and 21,000 tons of other products. According to the Port Authority, arriving products include wheat flour, frozen fish, cooking oil, rice, cereal, lentils, sugar, apples, pears, toilet paper, sanitary napkins, shampoo, brushes, feeding bottles, soap, moist towels, hemodialysis kits, intravenous solution, and supplies for medicine production. Also, metallic structures, construction material, clothing, spare parts for vehicles, appliances and cattle equipment. More in Spanish: (El Universal; http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/economia/ingresan-por-puerto-guaira-781-contenedores-mercancia_652022; Bolipuertos, http://www.bolipuertos.gob.ve/noticia.aspx?id=36308;

El Mundo, http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/economia/politicas-publicas/arribaron-a-la-guaira-781-contenedores-con-diverso.aspx)

 

Fertilizer and herbicides are offloading at Puerto Cabello

150,000 sacks of fertilizers from Barranquilla, Colombia, aboard the ship “Manuel Gual”, consigned to state agency AGROPATRIA. At the same time, the ship “Lion” was offloading 7 containers of Pendimetaline, a chemical herbicide used to control undergrowth. More in Spanish: (Bolipuertos, http://www.bolipuertos.gob.ve/noticia.aspx?id=36304; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/economia/descargan-fertilizantes-herbicidas-puerto-cabello_651808)

 

Oil & Energy

Venezuela's main refineries operating at record lows

Three of Venezuela's four refineries are working at record lows due to equipment malfunctioning and lack of crude and spare parts, according to PDVSA internal reports seen by Reuters on Wednesday and workers from the facilities. The Paraguana Refining Center, which includes Venezuela's Cardon and Amuay refineries, was processing 409,000 barrels per day (bpd) as of Monday, or 43% of its installed capacity of 955,000 bpd, according to the data. Venezuela's third largest refinery, the 187,000-barrel-per-day Puerto la Cruz, is operating at minimum levels due to problems at two of its three distillation units, said union leader Jose Bodas and a worker who asked not to be identified. The current processing levels at the main refineries are similar to 2012, when a severe explosion that killed more than 40 people at Amuay significantly reduced operations at PDVSA's main facilities, forcing the company to import fuels. (Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-refinery-operations-pdvsa-idUSKBN18630Z)

 

Venezuelan crude sales to the U.S. bounced in April

Venezuelan crude sales to the United States recovered in April compared to previous months to reach 741,000 barrels per day (bpd), its highest level since November, due to a larger supply of diluted and upgraded oil, according to Thomson Reuters trade flows data. Oil upgrades capable of converting Orinoco Belt's extra heavy crude into exportable grades have increased processing in recent weeks after working partially earlier this year, allowing more exports, sources close to the projects said. Sales of Zuata 30, Venezuela's lightest upgraded crude, to the United States almost doubled to 178,000 bpd in April compared with the previous month, according to the data. Exports of diluted crude oil (DCO) made with extra heavy oil and heavy naphtha increased 17% compared to March. (Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-usa-oil-idUSKBN1862Q0)

 

UN reports sharp drop in Cuban exports of refined oil products

Cuban exports of refined oil products fell about 97% between 2013 and 2016, according to a United Nations trade report released this week, reflecting falling supplies from its political ally Venezuela. The UN COMTRADE annual report put the value of Cuban fuel exports last year at US$ 15.4 million, compared to more than US$ 500 million in 2013. The amounts for 2015 and 2014, when oil prices collapsed, were US$ 163.5 million and US$ 336.8, respectively. The figures were based on import data from reporting countries, which may make them incomplete. Cuba depends on socialist-ruled Venezuela for up to 70% of its energy needs, including re-exports. Havana gets the oil as part of an exchange that sends thousands of Cuban doctors and other professionals to Venezuela. But a severe economic crisis here nation has led to a decline in oil-related supplies since 2014. Cuba began rationing electricity and fuel to state companies a year ago, and has experienced gasoline shortages more recently. Diplomats, suppliers and joint venture partners report the government has fallen behind on some payments. In 2016, Cuba received 87,550 barrels per day (bpd) of Venezuelan oil and fuels, 27% less than in 2015. In 2017, shipments of fuels have declined further, according to internal data, seen by Reuters, from Venezuelan state-run oil firm PDVSA. Cuba, in turn, has looked to Russia and others to try to make up the shortfall. A tanker with 249,000 barrels of refined fuel products from Russia is due to arrive in Cuba on May 10, bringing back memories of when the Soviet Union supplied all the island nation's energy needs. (Reuters: http://www.reuters.com/article/cuba-energy-trade-idUSL1N1IB09A)

 

Commodities

Amid chaos in Venezuela, infant deaths, malaria cases skyrocket

Infant and maternal deaths and cases of malaria are skyrocketing in Venezuela, which is grappling with severe medical shortages. Confirmed malaria cases in 2016 stood at 240,000, a 76% increase over 2015. Maternal deaths rose 66% to 756. Last year, 11,466 infants died, a 30% increase, according to new records recently released by Venezuela's health ministry. It's the first health data released by the government in nearly two years. The staggering increases illustrate how badly Venezuela lacks basic medicine, equipment and supplies to treat even the simplest of injuries at public hospitals. "If you need to have an operation, nowadays, you must bring your own medicines to the hospital," says Eugenia Morin, a 59-year old the housewife who protested the government last week. "There are no supplies to attend the most basic emergencies." According to statistics released by the Venezuelan Pharmaceutical Federation, by June 2016, the country was already facing a shortage of more than 80% of the medicines doctors need. And it's not just medicine. Patients are responsible for any material needed to treat them: needles, gauze pads, saline solution. When patients can get the money together to purchase these items, they become targets -- hospital rooms are not safe from thieves looking to sell medication on the black market, or fellow patients in desperation. And more than 13,000 doctors -- about 20% of the country's medical workforce, have left the country in recent years due to the collapse of the health sector. The health figures only represent one of many crises in Venezuela, which was once the richest nation in Latin America and is still home to the world's largest oil reserves. (CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/10/health/venezuela-malaria-infant-mortality/)

 

Fruit and vegetable transport is paralyzed by protests

200 cities could be hit by shortages of vegetables and fruit in the Andean region due to a halt in transportation because of protests and insecurity. Transport operators at Seboruco, El Cobre and La Grita, who supply fruit and vegetable to 60% of the nation have stopped their trucks due to attacks in protests and road insecurity. More in Spanish: (Noticiero Venevisión, http://www.noticierovenevision.net/noticias/economia/200-ciudades-podrian-quedar-afectadas-por-desabastecimiento-de-hortalizas-y-frutas; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/economia/productores-hortalizas-solicitan-mayor-seguridad-vialidad_651899)

 

Disturbances are hurting beef distribution nationwide

Armando Chacin, president of the Maracaibo Lake Area Cattle Federation, says beef distribution nationwide has hurt beef distribution because transportation operators do not want to put their personnel, cargo and units at risk due to protests. He says cattle processing at slaughterhouses remains “totally normal”. More in Spanish: (El Mundo, http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/economia/gremios/disturbios-inciden-en-la-distribucion-de-carne-a-n.aspx#ixzz4glVPEksN)

 

Vegetable production could drop 95%, farmers have not received fertilizers for 6 months

Gerson Pabón, director general of the Agriculture Federation (FEDEAGRO) warns that vegetable production could drop 95% this year because the government has limited fertilizer supplies to cereal production in Barinas, Cojedes and Portuguesa, and abandoned all the other areas. More in Spanish: (Ultima Hora Digital, http://ultimahoradigital.com/2017/05/desde-hace-6-meses-no-despachan-fertilizantes-a-productores-de-hortalizas/)

 

Economy & Finance

International reserves drop down to lowest level in 15 years

FOREX held by Venezuela’s Central Bank to fund imports, repay depts., meet contingencies and back up exchange rates were US$ 10.137 billion as of May 5^th, a 19% drop over the past year and their lowest level in 15 years, according to official data. The amount offers much less coverage than in 2002 because the nation’s FOREX debt is much higher, it depends much more on imports and currency controls allocated FOREX very inefficiently. Disposable FOREX reserves are now only 10% of the total amount, and were 68% of it in 2002. Two thirds of current reserves are in gold bullion, so there is scant liquidity and a very narrow margin for maneuvering. Analysts estimate the FOREX deficit at US$ 10 billion, which means companies cannot import supplies required for production of food and medicine. The Central Bank itself reports that the National Stabilization Fund is down to US$ 3 million, a meaningless sum as compared to savings in other oil producing nations. Central Bank statistics showed that dollar debt quadrupled between Q3 2004 and Q3 2015, from US$ 27.053 billion up to US$ 120.204 billion. Indebtedness did not improve infrastructure or diversify the economy, and weighs heavily on public finance. Venezuela and PDVSA still must pay up US$ 9.691 billion this year. The next large payment comes due in October-November, for US$ 3.526 billion. Analysts say that the only way the Maduro regime can increase imports, relieve scarcity and pull out of recession is through financing, but investors are looking at a high risk due to scant reserves, low oil prices, political conflict and weak institutions – where the Supreme Tribunal has declared the National Assembly in contempt, and the legislature – in turn – has made it clear to foreign financial institutions that any credit operations that do not have its approval will be considered illegal. More in Spanish: (Notiminuto: http://www.notiminuto.com/noticia/las-reservas-internacionales-caen-al-nivel-mas-bajo-en-15-anos/)

 

Venezuela's 99.5% Currency Plunge Shows Why Protests Rage: Chart

President Nicolas Maduro has overseen an unprecedented depreciation in his country’s currency since taking office, with the bolivar now down 99.5% to 5,100 per dollar in the black market that everyday Venezuelans use. The sharp decline has wiped out savings and made buying imported goods all but impossible, helping fuel the anger directed at the government in street protests that have turned deadly in recent weeks. While Maduro has raised the minimum wage almost 20 times during his tenure, it’s still the equivalent of just US$ 40 a month. (Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-10/venezuela-s-99-5-currency-plunge-shows-why-protests-rage-chart)

 

"Economic recovery in Venezuela is not viable without a political solution"

The Venezuelan Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FEDECÁMARAS) decided on Tuesday not to attend the meetings called by the Presidential Commission for the Constituent Assembly arguing that this body will be unable to solve the country core problems. “It is not time for a constituent assembly,” said Fedecámaras President Francisco Martínez, accompanied by the members of the expanded board of directors. “The country calls for solutions to the problems that afflict the people and go deeper and deeper day by day (…) The call to a national constituent assembly in the set terms, rather than solving, will deepen the crisis, as it lacks the legitimacy afforded by the support of the sovereign people.” Aquiles Hopkins, incoming President of the nation’s Agriculture Confederation (FEDEAGRO) concurs, saying: “A constituent assembly is not the solution to the nation’s problems which are clearly specified, and will only be solved within the Constitution”. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/economic-recovery-venezuela-unviable-without-political-solution_651974; and more in Spanish: El Mundo, http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/actualidad/politica/fedeagro-dice-que-la-constituyente-no-solucionara-.aspx#ixzz4glUvAV4s)

 

Politics and International Affairs

Venezuela protesters fling feces at soldiers; unrest takes 2 more lives

Young Venezuelan protesters lobbed bottles and bags of feces at soldiers who fought with tear gas on Wednesday to block the latest march in more than a month of nationwide protests against socialist President Nicolas Maduro. The extraordinary scenes, in what was dubbed the "Shit March" on the main highway through Caracas, came as thousands of opposition supporters again poured onto the streets decrying Venezuela's economic crisis and demanding elections. Many carried stones and so-called "Poopootov cocktails" - feces stuffed into small glass bottles - that they threw when National Guard troops blocked their path, firing gas and turning water cannons on the crowds. Protesters marching in downtown Caracas chanted: "Who are we? Venezuela! What do we want? Freedom!". At that point, militiamen approached, all dressed in dark colors with pieces of cloth covering their faces. One masked militia member fired several shots into the air. The militia later dispersed after officers intervened. Opposition leaders have blamed armed pro-government groups known as "collectives" for a number of protest deaths. At least 93 people were injured in Caracas and demonstrator Miguel Castillo was killed. Authorities also announced that Anderson Dugarte, 32, died from a gunshot wound he suffered Monday at a protest in Merida. The violence pushed the death toll to at least 38 in more than a month of street protests and political turmoil. Castillo had studied communications at Santa Marta University and friends and opposition leaders vowed to march to the site of his death Thursday morning. Interior Minister Nestor Reverol said in comments broadcast by state television that Dugarte was killed by a sniper linked to the opposition's Democratic Unity coalition. The opposition are seeking to vary tactics to keep momentum going and supporters energized. The government accused the opposition of breaking international treaties on biological and chemical weapons by throwing feces. In downtown Caracas, government supporters also rallied, dancing salsa and waving pictures of Maduro's predecessor Hugo Chavez who remains venerated by many, especially the poor.  Maduro and his allies appear to be hoping the opposition will run out of steam and are banking on a rise in oil prices to help assuage four years of recession. They are seizing on vandalism by young opposition hotheads who burn rubbish in the streets and smash public property, to depict the whole movement as intent on violence. The protests so far have failed to garner massive support from poorer, traditionally pro-Chavez sectors of Venezuela's 30 million people. But a bigger cross-section of society has been apparent at recent marches, some of which drew hundreds of thousands. Looting has been breaking out in some cities, especially at night. (Reuters: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKBN1862V3; Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2436164&CategoryId=10718; Al Jazeera:
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/05/venezuela-protests-170510215958054.html; CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/10/world/venezuela-victims/; CBS News: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/venezuela-protests-nicolas-maduro-dead-poopootov-cocktail-feces/; ABC News: http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/dozens-hurt-dead-violent-day-protests-venezuela-47334107; DW: http://www.dw.com/en/pro-maduro-militia-suppress-venezuela-democracy-demos/a-38793644)

 

Opposition leader arrested at pre-march gathering

National Assembly lawmakers on Wednesday denounced that Venezuela’s Bolivarian National Police (PNB) arrested a leader in the Popular Will (VP) party, Sergio Contreras, who was with a group of opposition members in downtown Caracas preparing to stage a march to the Supreme Court building. Opposition lawmaker Gaby Arellano told reporters that Contreras, an assistant to parliamentary First Vice President Freddy Guevara, was arrested in the La Candelaria sector of town. The police took him away “for no reason,” she said. “We were gathering (for the march) and comrade Sergio Contreras ... with a megaphone in his hand, was viciously attacked with tear gas canisters and subdued by more than 15 PNB officers commanded by Officer Duque, upon whom I threw myself to get (Contreras) away from them, and they beat me also,” she said. Arellano said that Contreras was beaten in a “barbaric manner,” and that lawmakers Luis Florido, Jorge Millan and Winston Flores, as well as Arellano herself, were also attacked by the police. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2436154&CategoryId=10717)

 

Venezuela hauls protesters before military tribunals to face up to 30 years behind bars

Human rights activists say more than 250 detained protesters have been put before military justice over the last week — a sudden upsurge in use of a practice they say violates the constitution, which limits military courts to "offences of a military nature." Some lawyers and opposition leaders put the number far higher. "The growing use of military tribunals to judge civilians demonstrates the absolute determination of Venezuelan authorities to asphyxiate the growing protests and terrorize any person who contemplates the possibility of expressing opinions," said Erika Guevara Rosas, Americas director for Amnesty International. President Nicolas Maduro's administration says the courts are part of emergency measures necessary to ensure national security against what they decry as foreign-backed attempts to violently oust the socialist government from power. "Security agencies are deployed in Carabobo to find those responsible for instigating rebellion and crime," wrote General Antonio Jose Benavides Torres, commander of Venezuela's Bolivarian National Guard, on Twitter. Many rights activists see the increasing reliance on military tribunals to try civilian protesters as an echo of the dark days of the 1970s and 1980s, when military dictatorships in Chile, Brazil and elsewhere bypassed civilian jurisdictions to prosecute political opponents accused of being national security threats tied to international communism. "The governments of Latin America have experienced this in the past, we have fought against impunity and we have said, 'Never again,"' said Luis Almagro, secretary general of the Organization of American States. "We cannot remain silent in the face of such obvious abuse of the basic human rights of Venezuelans." Some opposition leaders believe the use of the military tribunals reflects Maduro's weakening grip on power and a desire to circumvent someone who's become a surprising irritant: Venezuela's semi-autonomous chief prosecutor Luisa Ortega, who has shown signs of unusual independence. She was the first official to denounce a March ruling by the loyalist Supreme Court that stripped the opposition congress of its last powers, calling it a "rupture" of the constitutional order, helping prompt the court to back off the ruling. Nearly all of those facing military courts face the same two charges, according to attorneys: Inciting rebelling and vilifying military officials. Most of those cases so far are in the northern state of Carabobo. Military officials have activated an emergency protocol there known as Plan Zamora, few details of which have been made public. Amnesty International said Wednesday more than 250 people have been detained and placed in the hands of military justice. Alfredo Romero, executive director of Foro Penal, a lawyers' co-operative that defends activists, told National Assembly members Tuesday that 118 people in Carabobo alone have been put before military tribunals, where he said nearly a dozen soldiers armed with automatic weapons are posted in the courtroom as cases are heard. (CBC News: http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/venezuela-protesters-military-tribunals-1.4108988; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/ngo-over-civilians-have-been-sued-military-courts_651968)

 

Venezuela’s anti-government protesters show no signs of backing down

The crisis in Venezuela is only getting worse. On Wednesday, just as on every previous day for the past six weeks, anti-government protests hit various parts of the country. We're almost getting inured to the images: smoldering barricades arrayed against riot police, security forces launching fusillades of tear gas, bloodied demonstrators being rushed out by volunteer medics. Embattled Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is grimly clinging to power. His opponents seek fresh elections, the release of political prisoners and other concessions. Maduro, the unpopular inheritor of a socialist revolution, shows no sign that he will heed those calls. “Maduro is trapped in an electoral maze of the regime’s own making,” Phil Gunson of the International Crisis Group wrote last month. “After years of using elections as plebiscites, confident that oil revenue and the charisma of the late strongman Hugo Chávez would always ensure victory, the government can now — with Chávez gone — neither muster the electoral support nor find a convincing reason not to hold a vote.” And so, the protests continue. As Maduro extends the crackdown and even hauls civilians before military tribunals, there's a growing sense that external pressure is needed to ease the crisis. All eyes are on a meeting of the Organization of American States, or OAS, expected this month, where Venezuela will be at the forefront of the agenda. Maduro has threatened to pull out of the regional alliance, which is headquartered in Washington. “Venezuela is drowning in an economic, financial, social and humanitarian crisis of gigantic proportions,” said Luis Almagro, the secretary-general of the OAS, in a recent interview with Bloomberg News. “There is a dictatorship in Venezuela, and Venezuela needs elections. The only institutional exit for the country is a general election.” Maduro has seen the erosion of his government's base, with many of Venezuela's poor — once uplifted by “chavista” populism — suffering amid the wreckage of a collapsing state. But he may now fear fractures within the ruling party and the waning support of the security services that guarantee his power.  In the meantime, protesters will keep turning out in the streets of the country's divided cities. (The Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/05/11/venezuelas-anti-government-protesters-show-no-signs-of-backing-down/?utm_term=.1f4cbbe23a9a)

 

IACHR lashes at repression; deplores rising death toll in Venezuela

The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) blasted the “repressive measures” adopted in Venezuela, in retaliation to the wave of nationwide protests started last April. The IACHR urged the Venezuelan government to stop such measures and effectively discharge its international obligations in the field of human rights, a notice stated. The IACHR specially condemned and voiced concern over the increasing number of killings, injured people and detentions en masse, in addition to militarization of the way of dealing with the demonstrations. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/iachr-lashes-repression-deplores-rising-death-toll-venezuela_651980)

 

Maduro regime allies delay OAS vote on Venezuela

The Organization of American States (OAS) has postponed a vote on calling a meeting of the Hemisphere’s Foreign Minister to deal with the Venezuelan crisis until May 15^th. A large group of countries wanted to vote on the matter yesterday, but after a heated debate had to agree to postpone the vote due to opposition by some Maduro regime allies within the organization. Venezuela did not attend. The Permanent Council will meet next Monday, to vote on a new date, as per a proposal by Ecuador’s representative. Canada, which had called for the meeting, stressed that what is going on in Venezuela is “not normal”, and the situation is not improving by delays. OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro held the Maduro regime responsible for the death of young Miguel Castillo in Caracas the same day, and condemned “arbitrary and indiscriminate arrests by the Venezuelan regime.” He added “there are 38 dead to date due to the brutal repression of the Venezuelan regime against their people” More in Spanish: (Notiminuto: http://www.notiminuto.com/noticia/en-vivo-sesion-de-la-oea-sobre-venezuela/; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/politica/oea-sin-consenso-sobre-dia-reunion-cancilleres-para-caso-venezuela_652016; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/politica/almagro-imperativo-restaurar-democracia-venezuela_652088)

 

US State Department calls on Venezuela to "tend humanitarian needs," respect Constitution & National Assembly

Francisco Palmieri, Acting Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs, at the U.S. Department of State, says: “The people of Venezuela are suffering due to their government’s authoritarian repression and poor economic management Three-quarters of Venezuelans have lost weight in the past year because of food scarcity.
We are concerned that the government of President Maduro is violating Venezuela’s own constitution and is not allowing the opposition to have their voices heard, nor allowing them to organize in a way that expresses the views of the Venezuelan people. Our hemisphere has come together, particularly through the Organization of American States in defense of democracy and human rights in the region. We have taken formal steps to address the situation in Venezuela by calling a minister-level meeting.” (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2436097&CategoryId=10717)

 

The armed forces will decide the fate of Venezuela’s regime

Before Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s president, delivered his second May Day address, spelling out plans for a new constitution, he paused to acknowledge a dozen generals, in full ceremonial uniform, were in the audience. He asked them to stand and be applauded. It was a telling moment. His future will be decided by the armed forces, not directly by the people. If they withdraw support from his beleaguered regime, change will come soon. If not, hunger and repression will continue. So far, there is little sign of dissent in the top ranks. General Vladimir Padrino López, the head of the armed forces and minister of defense, hailed Maduro’s call for a new constitution as “a clear demonstration of democratic will”. The opposition is increasingly directing its appeals to the armed forces, or to factions within them. Julio Borges, the legislature’s president, says it is time for the men in green to “break their silence”. Henrique Capriles, a potential challenger to Maduro who has been banned from seeking office for 15 years, asked ordinary soldiers to consider whether they want to “share the fate” of the doomed ruling party. The army is not the regime’s only prop. The National Guard fires tear-gas at and wield truncheons against demonstrators; informal gangs called “collectives” enforce submission to the regime in neighborhoods and are responsible for many of the 33 deaths in protests over the past month. But the armed forces, though constitutionally required to be apolitical, are the final arbiters of power. Chavismo, the movement that guides the regime, has been military-led since its inception. Officers or former officers run 11 of the 32 ministries; 11 of the 23 state governors are retired officers. Maduro has been a prolific producer of generals. On one day, last year he promoted 195 officers to that rank, bringing their number to more than 2,000. The United States somehow gets by with no more than 900 generals. The Venezuelan top brass is not a monolithic group. There are “diverse” factions, both between and within branches of the armed forces, says Rocio San Miguel, a lawyer and defense specialist. A group of “originals” fought alongside Chávez in 1992. An overlapping clique helps drug-trafficking gangs through its control of ports and airports. A bigger group of non-ideological “opportunists” dabbles in that and other businesses. These divisions matter less than the generals’ shared interest in the regime’s survival. Most profit handsomely from Maduro’s chaotic rule. Some have access to dollars at the ridiculously cheap price in bolivars set by the government. The army oversees the lucrative business of food distribution, a recipe for abuse. The lower ranks are less happy, though they are better housed than most Venezuelans and some profit from sidelines such as smuggling.  DCI, an agency that snoops on the barracks, reportedly has been hearing of “deepening disaffection”, especially in the army’s middle ranks, since February, before the latest protests began. Much of this appears linked “with mid-ranking officers barely bothering to suppress their contempt for a general staff it perceives as corrupt”. In April three lieutenants posted a video saying they rejected Maduro as commander-in-chief. They sought asylum in Colombia. General Raúl Baduel, a jailed former defense minister, has become an icon for dissenters. They share a 14-second recording in which he says he is in prison because he spurned “the scoundrels and criminals …who give you orders”. Junior soldiers, and their families, share the privations that drive Venezuelans onto the streets in protest. They are angry. But that does not mean that they will stop following orders. (The Economist: http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21721661-people-power-counts-less-armed-forces-will-decide-fate-venezuelas-regime)

 

Former Venezuelan general: Venezuela is on the verge of civil war

Retired Gen. Miguel Rodríguez Torres, 53, who served as Maduro’s interior minister in 2013 and 2014, said that large riots and protests have cropped up in every major city, including the working-class neighborhoods that once firmly supported Maduro’s government. When serving as Maduro’s interior minister, Torres’s government forces quashed anti-government protests in 2014, resulting in 43 dead including protesters and police officers. The protests died out without any concessions from the government, demoralizing Maduro’s opposition for years. Torres said things have gotten much worse since his time as interior minister, leading more protesters to take to the streets. He said that without the government getting to the economic roots of the crisis, repression will not work. Torres said Maduro fired him in 2014 after he had criticized the president’s handling of the economy, particularly his control over the currency. Today, Torres is considering running for president of Venezuela as an independent.  He also founded the Wide Movement political group which focuses on ridding itself of chavismo, the political movement of Hugo Chavez, Maduro’s socialist predecessor. “We can’t be thinking about saving chavismo now, we have to save the country,” Torres said. (The Blaze: https://www.theblaze.com/news/2017/05/10/former-venezuelan-general-venezuela-is-on-the-verge-of-civil-war/)

 

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.