november 24, 2014

International Trade

 

Cargo that has arrived at Puerto Cabello:

• Over 11,900 tons of frozen beef and chicken from Brazilian company JBS for CASA
• Over 2,400 tons of pork from Brazil's JBS for CASA
• Over 1,900 tons of whole milk and margarine from Brazil's JBS for CASA
• Over 1,219 tons of milk and infant formula milk from Nestlé Argentina for its subsidiary in Venezuela.

More in Spanish: (Notitarde; http://www.notitarde.com/La-Costa/Mas-de-dos-mil-400-toneladas-de-pernil-llegaron-al-puerto-2289677/2014/11/23/403681/)

 

SAMSUNG assures it will have products in stock for Christmas and that these would be sold in two to three weeks at the SICAD 1 rate. The South Korean company’s Vice President for Venezuela Luis Cobo reported there were 243 containers at La Guaira Port, waiting to be nationalized and then distributed. (Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=41976&idc=3)

 

Oil & Energy

 

OPEC division spurs hedge funds to trim bullish oil bets

Hedge funds turned less bullish on crude oil as OPEC failed to signal it will act to halt the collapse that drove prices to a four-year low. Money managers reduced net-long positions in West Texas Intermediate by 4.1% in the week ended Nov. 18, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Long positions sank to an 18-month low. Outstanding futures contracts dwindled to the lowest level in more than two years. Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will meet in Vienna on Nov. 27 to decide on production after oil plunged 30% since June. Leading producers, including Saudi Arabia, are resisting calls to reduce output while others such as Venezuela seek action to support prices. The 20 analysts surveyed last week by Bloomberg are perfectly divided, with half predicting a cut and the rest no action. (Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-24/opec-division-spurs-hedge-funds-to-trim-bullish-oil-bets.html)

 

Russia may suggest oil output cut of 15 mln T in 2015

Russia may suggest cutting its oil production by around 15 million tons a year (300,000 barrels per day) and expects OPEC to limit its output as well, Kommersant daily newspaper said, citing sources. Before OPEC meets later this week in Vienna, Russia has spoken to members Venezuela and Saudi Arabia about the need to support the oil market and hopes to press its message on the need for higher prices in Vienna on Nov.25. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said last week Moscow was looking at the option of cutting its oil production, the world's largest, but said the measure had yet to be agreed. (Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/24/russia-opec-paper-idUSL6N0TE0LE20141124; Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-24/russia-reported-to-consider-joining-opec-oil-output-cuts-in-2015.html)

 

Iran may propose million-barrel daily OPEC cut in Saudi talks

Iran may propose that OPEC cut its output target by as much as 1 million barrels a day when the country’s oil minister consults with his Saudi counterpart before the group gathers this week, Mehr News reported. Bijan Namdar Zanganeh and Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi will talk on the sidelines of the meeting in Vienna of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, seeking to define a common view among its 12 members for supporting prices, Iran’s state-run Mehr News agency reported, without saying where it got the information. An official in Iran’s oil ministry didn’t immediately comment when contacted by phone yesterday. (Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-23/iran-may-propose-opec-oil-output-cut-in-saudi-meeting-mehr-says.html)

 

Venezuela willing to cut oil output along with OPEC

Venezuela would be willing to cut its own oil production if OPEC decides to limit output when it meets on Nov. 27, Foreign Minister Rafael Ramirez said on Thursday. Ramirez, who was until recently oil minister and president of state oil company PDVSA, declined to say what specific proposal Venezuela planned to take to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meeting in Vienna. Asked which OPEC members would support a proposal aimed at strengthening prices, Ramirez said: "I hope all of them." (Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/21/us-venezuela-oil-idUSKCN0J502Q20141121; Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=41969&idc=4)

 

Venezuela oil barrel falls below US$ 70

Venezuela's weekly oil basket fell to a new 4 year low this week. According to figures released by the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, the average price of Venezuelan crude sold by Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA) during the week ending November 21 was US$ 68.97, down US$ 1.86 from the previous week's US$ 70.83. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2362040&CategoryId=10717; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/141121/venezuelan-oil-basket-down-to-usd-6897; Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=41980&idc=4)

 

First crude shipment mixed with Algerian oil sent to China

PDVSA reports it has sent China its first extra heavy oil shipment mixed with light oil imported from Algeria's SONATRACH. 1.8 million tons of Merey heavy crude will arrive in China in 46 days, it reports. More in Spanish: (El Mundo, http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/petroleo/pdvsa/venezuela-exporta-a-china-primer-embarque-de-crudo.aspx#ixzz3JywQfuAc)

 

PETROCARIBE member countries have seen a 23% increase of their GDPs since its beginning in 2005, claims Foreign Affairs Minister Rafael Ramírez. On the other hand, Venezuelan Oil and Mining Minister Asdrúbal Chávez points out the agreements of this bloc focus on five structural axes: Transport, communications, productive chains, tourism, trade and the social and cultural aspects of the region. (Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=41970&idc=4)

 

Commodities

 

CASA distributed 1,128 tons of corn to private processing plans

The government agency Corporación de Abastecimiento y Servicios Agrícolas (CASA) has distributed 1,228 tons of white corn, to three private processing plants for precooked corn, Food Minister Ivan José Bello, said through his Twitter account. More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/141124/casa-despacho-1128-toneladas-de-maiz-a-tres-plantas-de-harina; AVN; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/casa-ha-distribuido-1228-toneladas-ma%C3%ADz-blanca)

 

Economy & Finance

 

Government expects an additional VEB 150 billion from fiscal changes in 2015

José David Cabello, head of the national tax authority, SENIAT, says recently changed tax laws will yield added income above VEB 150 billion in 2015. More in Spanish: (AVN; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/ministro-cabello-reorganizaci%C3%B3n-fiscal-permitir%C3%A1-ingresos-superiores-bs-150-mil-millones-2; El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/)

 

Additional government spending projected for 2015 doubles

Labor commitments that have emerged this year and budget deficit of government agencies have sped up the search of additional credits, for a total amount of US$ 81.9 billion. The National Assembly reports additional spending is twice last year's US$ 39.1 billion. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/141122/venezuelan-govts-additional-spending-doubles-in-2014)

 

Government debt estimated at 30% of GDP in 2015

The Ministry of Economy and Finance estimates that including the expected indebtedness for next year, the total government debt would come to 30% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). During the National Assembly's Finance Committee review of the FY2015 Indebtedness Law, Beatriz Bolivar, head of the National Public Credit Office, noted that by the end of next fiscal year "the debt ratio would stand at 27%-30% of GDP." Authorities would not break down the current balance of government debt, which was US$ 127.7 billion in the first half. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/141121/venezuelan-government-debt-estimated-at-30-of-gdp-in-2015)

 

Experts stress the need for macroeconomic revision in Venezuela

Economists see certain caution recent economic measures adopted by the government under the enabling law with caution They fear an outlook of lower growth and higher inflation. According to Professor José Guerra, economic recovery does not only require a fiscal reform, but also a foreign exchange reform. "If a fiscal reform is implemented to collect more taxes in times of recession, recession will certain go deeper," he warns. Former Chavez Planning Minister Felipe Pérez forecasts that deficit in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would hit 20%, and noted that recent fiscal reforms would not even collect two points of GDP. "The deficit is not being covered at all with this measure if other changes are not adopted," he says. ECONOMÉTRICA Director Henkel García believes stabilizing macroeconomic aspects in 2015 should be a priority, and that includes improving the foreign exchange system. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/141122/experts-stress-the-need-for-macroeconomic-revision-in-venezuela)

 

The Seniat will seize properties without judicial orders in the event of non-compliance or tax evasion, according to the overhaul of the Organic Tax Code which was decreed via Nicolás Maduro’s Special Powers. (Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=41978&idc=2)

 

Politics and International Affairs

 

Human Rights Watch repeated its call to immediately release the Venezuelan political prisoners detained arbitrarily during this year’s protests after a meeting between its Executive Director José Miguel Vivanco and Voluntad Popular’s political coordinator Carlos Vecchio, who was forced into exile. (Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=41979&idc=1)

 

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.