Economics &
Finance
Expropriation of strategic companies
in Venezuela will remain on
recently re-elected President Chávez’ agenda says his Vice President Elías
Jaua. He explained that Chávez will strengthen “control over strategic parts of the economy” such as energy,
people’s food, inputs for construction” (Veneconomy, 10-08-2012; http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=32365&idc=1;
Reuters, 10-07-2012; http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/08/us-venezuela-election-nationalizations-idUSBRE89701X20121008)
Controls to remain
Luis Vicente León, of DATANALISIS, has spoken to the
economic scenario and expectations for a new economic policy. He foresees a
devaluation that could be more than 60% during the first quarter 2013, and adds
"It needs it and has the capital to
do so". He also expects
continued exchange controls, but believes it is possible there will be a bigger
opening for imports. IESA Economics Professor José Manuel Puente believes the
exchange rate could be adjusted at any time, and says the socialist project
will be expanded and will mean more economic imbalance. Puente adds that the
Central Bank is selling gold reserves in order to maintain liquidity and a
secondary exchange market. More in Spanish: (Tal Cual; http://www.talcualdigital.com/index.html;
El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/elecciones-2012/121009/analistas-afirman-que-el-ajuste-del-tipo-de-cambio-sera-en-2013)
Fitch warns about the deficit, saying "the reelected government faces the challenge of adjusting its exchange
policy and there continues to be great uncertainty on whether it will be able
to curb the fiscal deficit while sustaining economic growth and fighting
inflation." It adds that rapid expansion in public spending led to an
enlarged deficit, which is estimated at 6.9% if GDP in the case of the national
government, while international reserves have diminished as oil income was sent
to "non transparent special funds".
More in Spanish: (El Universal; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/elecciones-2012/121009/fitch-alerta-sobre-el-deficit-en-las-cuentas-publicas)
CITI forecasts slight drop in
Venezuelan bonds
Several international financial research sources have
estimated the short term impact of the Chavez reelection. CITI estimates as
light drop in Venezuelan bonds as markets open, but says they will not drop
more than 150 points. It added: "In
a poll of 100 investors, only 16% said they would lower their position if
Chavez won, and 40% said they would sustain the fall." More in
Spanish: (El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/)
Chavez win called by BOFA sparks
selloff as Barclays flops
State-oil company bonds tumbled after President Hugo Chavez won
re-election by more than 10 percentage points in a vote that some polls had
showed was too close to call. Notes due 2017 from Petroleos de Venezuela SA
(PDVSA), fell 2.63 cents to 87.11 cents on the dollar as of 1:11 p.m. in New
York, where trading was limited because of a holiday. The currency slid to a
record low in unregulated trading. (Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-08/chavez-win-called-by-bofa-points-to-bond-rout-as-barclays-flops.html)
Commodities
Analysis: Chavez win keeps Venezuela
oil policy intact
President Hugo Chavez's re-election on Sunday means
Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA will remain highly politicized and will
continue its discount supply deals with his socialist allies. Critics say
Chavez has hobbled PDVSA with the weight of his government's financial demands
- it helps pay for everything from sports teams to health clinics and home
building - meaning it has neglected to invest enough in the oil business.
(Reuters, 10-08-2012; http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/08/us-venezuela-election-oil-idUSBRE8970UR20121008;
Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-08/chavez-declared-winner-over-capriles-in-venezuelan-election-1-.html)
Politics
Hugo Chavez beats Henrique Capriles
in Venezuela’s presidential election
Fighting for his political life, President Hugo Chavez
overcame a vigorous challenge by Henrique Capriles in Sunday’s presidential
election, receiving another six-year term that will give the populist firebrand
the opportunity to complete the consolidation of what he calls 21st century
socialism in one of the world’s great oil powers. The victory, announced by the
National Electoral Council late Sunday, gave Chavez the win with 54.4% of the
vote, while Capriles took 44.9%. In winning his fourth presidential election
since 1998, Chavez captured just over 7.4 million votes to 6.1 million for his
adversary, turning back what had been a determined battle by Capriles, a
40-year-old former governor. “I
congratulate the opposition and the leaders of the opposition, because they
recognize the victory of the people,” Chavez told throngs of supporters
gathered outside the presidential palace. “That’s
why I send them this greeting and extend my arms to them, because we are all
brothers in the fatherland of Bolivar.” The electoral mission of the Union
of South American Nations (Unasur) called the experience a "superb lesson". The representative
of the European Union for External Relations, Catherine Ashton, asked
Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez to avail himself of his renewed government to
reach out a hand to all the sectors of the society and foster fundamental
liberties; OAS Secretary General José Miguel Insulza spoke of an "exemplary election process" and
said they were "good for the region
as they show the only option for nations is democracy"; and several
Latin American Presidents, including Argentina and Cuba congratulated Chavez on
his victory. (The Washington Post, 10-07-2012; http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/venezuelans-flood-polls-for-historic-election-to-decide-if-hugo-chavez-remains-in-power/2012/10/07/d77c461c-10c8-11e2-9a39-1f5a7f6fe945_story.html;
Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=603023&CategoryId=10717;
El Universal, 10-08-2012; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/121008/unasur-venezuela-gave-a-superb-lesson;
http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/121008/european-union-asks-chavez-to-offer-a-hand-to-all-venezuelans;
http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/121008/latin-american-presidents-congratulate-chavez
and more in Spanish: Tal Cual; http://www.talcualdigital.com/index.html)
Opposition votes grew since 2006,
but not enough
Although the reelected President took 55% of the vote,
across the board figures show the opposition gained by up to 24 points over
2006 results in some states, such as Amazonas. The increase was not enough to
overcome pro Chavez votes, which remained stagnant but did not diminish. The
opposition became a majority in the Andean states of Mérida (51,41%) and Táchira (56,41%); and in populous
Miranda, around Caracas, the difference was a mere 0,2% in favor of Chávez. In
Zulia, however, the opposition lost 2.11 points since 2006; whereas in Lara and
Monagas, where both governors turned against Chavez, the opposition also
gained, by 15.38 and 12.16 points, respectively. More in Spanish: (Tal Cual; http://www.talcualdigital.com/index.html)
Chavez telephoned Capriles
According to campaign chief Armando Briquet President
Hugo Chavez telephoned Henrique Capriles and for the first time called him by
his name as opposed to the epithets and insults he had used during the
campaign. Briquet denied the call was "the
beginning of a dialogue", yet underlined the need for "mutual recognition, lowering tension,
insults and disqualification of those who disagree". He said Capriles
said what he had to say and Chavez also expressed his views, and if that leads
to a dialogue it is welcome. More in Spanish: (Tal Cual; http://www.talcualdigital.com/index.html;
El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/elecciones-2012/121009/chavez-y-capriles-sostuvieron-una-amena-conversacion)
Romney: Chávez's and Castro bothers'
ideology has failed
US presidential candidate Mitt Romney says Latin America
is resisting the "failed ideology"
of reelected President Hugo Chávez and the Castro brothers in Cuba, in a speech
on foreign policy that did not specifically address the results of the
Venezuelan presidential election held on Sunday. Romney says, "Our neighbors in Latin America want to
resist the failed ideology of Hugo Chávez and the Castro brothers and deepen
ties with the United States on trade, energy, and security," AFP
cited. (El Universal,
10-08-2012; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/121008/romney-chavezs-and-castro-bothers-ideology-has-failed)
‘Sigh
of relief’ in Cuba as ally and oil benefactor Hugo Chavez wins reelection
in Venezuela
President Hugo Chavez’s reelection was welcome news on the streets and
in the halls of power of Cuba, which relies on Venezuela for a big chunk of its
economy through trade and preferential oil shipments. Chavez counts former Cuban
President Fidel Castro as a friend and mentor, and his opponent, Henrique
Capriles, had promised to change a relationship he described as financing
Cuba’s political model. (The Washington Post, 10-08-2012; http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/sigh-of-relief-in-cuba-as-ally-and-oil-benefactor-hugo-chavez-wins-reelection-in-venezuela/2012/10/08/e82b50ec-1178-11e2-9a39-1f5a7f6fe945_story.html)
No comments:
Post a Comment