September 07th, 2012

Economics & Finance

Inflation at 9.8% by August, nine basic food items rely heavily on imports

The Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) announced that accumulated inflation from January through August slowed down and stood at 9.8%. BCV's Chairman Nelson Merentes and Finance Minister Jorge Giordani said this was a highly positive result. Last year's accumulated inflation was 18.6% for the same period. "By the end of the fiscal year inflation may be below the estimated levels, 20-22%," Merentes said. Low food prices are the reason for the drop in inflation, and such decline is the result of a "growing (domestic) production, the Law on Cost and Fair Prices, and a better distribution of products," according to the BCV president. The Central Bank also said 30% of the beef and 90% of the powdered milk consumed in Venezuela are imported. 80% of liquid milk is also imported. (El Universal, 09-05-2012; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/120905/venezuelan-inflation-at-98-by-august) and more in Spanish: (El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/)

Private banks may participate in "Petrobond" distribution

President Hugo Chávez announced that the private and public banking sectors will work together on national apportionment of Petrorinoco bonds (Petrobonds). He said the government and private banks will sign agreements for private financial institutions to distribute bonds in remote places where Banco de Venezuela (a state-run bank) does not have branch offices. (El Universal, 09-05-2012; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/120905/banking-private-sector-participates-in-petrobonds-distribution)

Commodities

PDVSA to invest U$D 18 billion this year

Venezuela’s oil minister announced that state oil company PDVSA plans to invest U$D18 billion this year, primarily in exploration and production. Rafael Ramirez, who also heads PDVSA, says that in 2006 investment in the oil industry totaled U$D 5.83 billion and then climbed to U$D 11 billion in 2007 and U$D 15.44 billion in 2008. He said that U$D 13.54 billion were invested in 2009 and U$D 10.7 billion in 2010, a “bad year” due to the “impact of the entire drop in the price” in 2009, while investment rose to U$D 17.53 billion last year. He confirmed that in 2011 the Venezuelan oil company posted U$D 124.75 billion in revenue. (Latin American Herald Tribune, 09-05-2012; http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=570259&CategoryId=10717)

Minister claims processing units undamaged

Venezuelan Minister of Petroleum and Mining Rafael Ramírez claims that processing units (for the output of by-products) reported no damages upon the explosion of the Amuay oil refinery in northwest Venezuela. He also said that a comprehensive revision is in place to ensure no further leaks.  Although the minister did not reveal the cost of overall damages, he stated, "nine out of 680 tanks has been affected (at the Paraguaná Refining Complex). Four out of the nine burnt tanks collapsed, eventually. The other five suffered some damages. We are evaluating everything, including all the systems; we are changing the valves." (El Universal, 09-05-2012; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/120905/venezuelan-minister-of-petroleum-processing-units-undamaged; Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=570068&CategoryId=10717)

Nation has fuel reserves for 10 days

Oil and Mining Minister and PDVSA Chief Rafael Ramírez says “the country still has fuel reserves for 10 days” after the explosion at the Amuay Refinery a little over a week ago. He also reiterated the country “is not importing gasoline.” (Veneconomy, 09-05-2012; http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=31946&idc=4)

Perla gas field production at least 15 months away

The start of production at Venezuela's big offshore Perla gas field is still at least 15 months away, said a partner involved in the project, delaying once again the country's plans for domestic production of natural gas. Although Venezuela boasts some of the world's biggest natural gas reserves, and is one of its biggest oil exporters; the country doesn't yet produce gas commercially. The nation hopes the Perla field and other future gas projects will help it rely less on neighboring Colombia for its supplies. The project partners said last year they hoped to have some initial production from Perla by the end of 2012. (Reuters, 09-05-2012;

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/06/venezuela-gas-idUSL2E8K60CT20120906)

PETROPIAR upgrader restarting after maintenance

A maintenance shutdown of the PETROPIAR oil upgrader is over, but a full return to production could still take two weeks, said the senior executive for the Venezuelan unit of Chevron, a partner at the facility. The upgrader, which converts heavy crude from the OPEC nation's Orinoco belt into lighter and more valuable oil, was shut down in July for maintenance and to expand capacity. With maintenance complete, the facility will now gradually resume operations. (Reuters, 09-05-2012; http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/06/venezuela-oil-petropiar-idUSL2E8K602O20120906)

PDVSA says six Orinoco projects to begin pumping this year

PDVSA says that six new projects in the Orinoco heavy oil belt are expected to start production by the end of the year, setting yet another target for development of a delay-plagued region vital to increased production in the country. The first project to begin producing, said Rubén Figuera, the PDVSA executive in charge of the Orinoco belt, will be Petromacareo, its joint venture with Vietnamese oil company PETROVIETNAM. After that there will be projects with Italian, Russian, Spanish, and American oil companies. "This year we'll begin early production at all of the new developments in the belt," said Figuera, at an oil industry conference in the coastal city of Puerto la Cruz. "The expectation for the wells is extraordinary." (Reuters, 09-05-2012; http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/05/venezuela-oil-production-idUSL2E8K5GMJ20120905)

Venezuela confirms start-up of oil exploration off Cuba

Venezuela – State-owned oil giant Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) has started exploring for oil in deepwater areas off Cuba, Oil and Mining Minister Rafael Ramirez said. “It started and when we have the results, we’ll tell the country,” Ramirez said, without providing further details. State-owned Cubapetroleo, or CUPET, said in early August that PDVSA would continue drilling in deepwater areas despite the fact that other foreign oil companies hit two dry holes. (Latin American Herald Tribune, 09-05-2012; http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=570242&CategoryId=10717)

Logistics & Transport

The Mazparro, Boconó and Arauca, are the first vessels to service the Orinoco-Apure river system, setting sail from the Orinoquia Bridge in Bolívar state down to Apure state. The boats, which bear up-to-the-minute technology thanks to the China-Venezuela agreement, are meant to boost national agricultural production. (Veneconomy, 09-05-2012; http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=31967&idc=3)

Politics

Capriles pledges to end barriers to domestic production

A large part of the Capriles "Made in Venezuela" plan for the economy is based on "stimulating" domestic production, to achieve 6-7% growth annually, "end" scarcity, and promote diversification and exports  His platform adds "In recent years Venezuela has become unattractive for business, due to mistaken policies that threaten those who would invest". More in Spanish: (El Universal, 09-07-2012; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/120907/capriles-promete-eliminar-trabas-a-la-produccion-local)

Venezuela to appoint envoy to Colombian peace process

Foreign Minister Nicolás Maduro has said President Chávez will in the next few days be appointing an envoy to join the commission leading the Colombian peace process. "The guidelines, activities, and the scope of Venezuela's support in the talks," will be set out by the Colombian Government, said Maduro during an interview. (El Universal, 09-05-2012; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/120905/venezuela-to-appoint-envoy-to-colombian-peace-process; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/120905/venezuelas-incorporation-in-colombian-peace-talks-is-a-concession)

December 09th, 2011

Economics & Finance

Inflation rises above 27%

The Central Bank says the country's annual inflation has risen to 27.6%. Monthly inflation was 2.2% in November, up from 1.8% in October. Annual inflation rose slightly from the 26.9% rate recorded in October. The country has had Latin America's highest inflation for the past six years. Increasing government economic controls, heavy reliance on imports and an expanding money supply have contributed to the problem; and the government is attempting to fight inflation through a new law that expands price controls to a wider range of goods and gives the government more enforcement authority. (CBS News, 12-06-2011; http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505245_162-57338099/venezuela-inflation-rises-above-27-percent/)

Chavez: Venezuela willing to talk with EXXON MOBIL

President Chavez says his government would be open to negotiating with EXXON MOBIL Corp. in a dispute over the nationalization of an oil project in the country. Venezuelan officials have previously said EXXON MOBIL's compensation demands are excessive. The Irving, Texas-based oil company turned to international arbitration after refusing to accept the terms of the nationalization in 2007. Chavez says he would be willing to "sit down with them and seek a friendly settlement, but that's up to them and not to us." Exxon Mobil declined to comment. (Google - AP, 12-07-2011; http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5ictWfIOK_vp3bxboW7sRC3hDeyIg?docId=1219462a05ea4558850ca349e9734c5f)

PDVSA triples contributions to state

State oil company PDVSA more than tripled contributions to President Hugo Chavez's social programs and development fund in the first half of 2011 compared to the same period last year, company results show. PDVSA's first-half figures show a massive, ten-fold hike in contribution to Chavez's off-budget special development fund FONDEN to U$D 7.3 billion, compared with U$D 691 million during the same period of 2010. Transfers to existing "missions" -- the social projects in slums and other poor areas that have assured Chavez's popularity among the poor in a 13-year rule -- nearly doubled to U$D 8.5 billion from U$D 4.5 billion. A new "Great Housing Mission", under which Chavez hopes to solve Venezuela's two million housing unit deficit in coming years, took another U$D 2.4 billion, the results showed. The total increase in contributions to the state over the period -- from U$D 5.2 billion to U$D 18.2 billion -- was in keeping with an accelerating spending spree by the government ahead of a 2012 presidential vote. (Reuters, 12-07-2011; http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/12/07/venezuela-pdvsa-idUKN1E7B60GE20111207)

PDVSA Social is announced for investments from retirees

President Chavez announced the organization of another subsidiary of state-run oil holding Petróleos de Venezuela, C.A. (PDVSA), in which retirees may invest their funds in order to strengthen the social security system. "We have been working on this idea for quite a while and time has come to launch it in order to provide financial and economic sustainability to universal social security for everyone," he said; adding that this new subsidiary will have assets, goods and probably some oil fields within the Orinoco Oil Belt. (El Universal, 12-07-2011; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/111207/pdvsa-social-is-established-for-retirees-to-invest)

PETROBOND issue reaches U$D 9.32 billion

Félix Franco, president of the Venezuelan Public Stock Exchange, says PETROBONDS to be issued for payment of labor liabilities will come to U$D 9.32 billion. The issue was announced by President Chavez on Tuesday evening.

Franco, based on the performance of VEBONDS, has estimated the coupon for PETROBONDS around 17%. (El Universal, 12-07-2011; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/111207/issue-of-petrobond-reaches-usd-932-billion)

Commodities

Work stoppage ended at SIDOR

Operations at steel maker Siderúrgica del Orinoco (SIDOR) are again running. After contractual operators and SIDOR president Carlos D'Oliveira agreed to set up round tables to negotiate their incorporation as into staff. "Yesterday (Tuesday) night, the stoppage was lifted and the furnace got started. In the meantime, in the early hours of this Wednesday, the production of rebars began. Therefore, 60 trucks loaded with 1,750 tons of rebars are to be dispatched on a daily basis," says Néstor Astudillo, corporate marketing manager. (El Universal, 12-07-2011; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/111207/stoppage-at-sidor-is-over)

Failure at Cardón refinery hits production

One day after PDVSA officials reported a shutdown in a unit at Amuay refinery, in Northwestern Venezuela, inside sources reported another failure in Cardón refinery. The two crude oil refineries are within the Paraguaná Refinery Complex (CRP). Iván Freites, Secretary General of the Falcón State industry union says there was a shutdown at the delayed coking unit of Cardón refinery. (El Universal, 12-07-2011;  http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/111207/failure-at-cardon-refinery-hits-production)

Businessmen fear another downturn in construction

Juan Francisco Jiménez, president of the Venezuelan Construction Chamber, says construction activity will plunge in the fourth quarter of the year due to a shortage of supplies and legal uncertainty. He specified that the supply of cement is irregular. "If building grows, the production of cement must rise, but it has not reached the levels attained in 2008 and 2009."  (El Universal, 12-07-2011; http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/111207/businessmen-fear-another-downturn-in-construction)

PDVSA profits up to U$D4.1 billion in the semester 2011

The profits of the State oil company were up around an inter-annual 60% to U$D 4.1 billion in the first half of this year due to higher oil prices, according to local daily El Universal. Revenues for oil exports and food sales went up around 37% to U$D 64.1 billion from January to June, in proportion with the 37.3% increase in the Venezuelan oil basket. (Veneconomy, 12-07-2011; http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=28768&idc=4)

International Trade

Chavez says China could soon surpass US as Venezuela’s top trade partner

President Chavez says that China could surpass U.S. as Venezuela’s No. 1 trade partner due to a strategic alliance between the two countries. He says trade between Venezuela and China has reached U$D 20 billion this year, up from U$D 600 million just over a decade ago. It is growing at a rate of U$D 2 billion a year. Trade between the United States and Venezuela has reached U$D 33.5 billion so far this year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.  Last month, Chinese officials signed $6 billion in new loans to Venezuela aiming to boost the South American country’s oil industry. China has swiftly become Venezuela’s biggest foreign lender in recent years. The Asian giant had previously agreed to more than $32 billion in loans. Venezuela, in turn, is increasing oil shipments to China. (Washington Post, 12-06-2011; http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/americas/hugo-chavez-says-china-could-soon-surpass-us-as-venezuelas-top-trade-partner/2011/12/06/gIQAQkZRaO_story.html)

Venezuela signs agreements with Russia for housing, agriculture

The governments of Venezuela and Russia set up 10 working groups to continue developing agreements in housing, energy, mines, agriculture, sports, culture, foreign policy, industries, science and information technology.

The groups will monitor agreements signed between Venezuela and Russia. Executive Vice-President Elias Jaua says it was agreed to build 30 thousand new housing units in Venezuela with Russia's cooperation. (AVN, 12-08-2011; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/venezuela-settles-accords-russia-housing-agriculture; El Universal; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/111207/venezuelan-vp-in-moscow-to-sign-agriculture-and-oil-agreements)

Vladimir Putin says Venezuela-Russia trade has increased 10 fold

After a meeting in Moscow with Venezuela´s Executive Vice President Elías Jaua, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin remarked: “I would like to mention one fact: From January to September this year bilateral trade has increased 10 times”. More in Spanish: (AVN, 12-09-2011; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/putin-intercambio-comercial-venezuela-rusia-ha-aumentado-10-veces)

Venezuela receives third ocean patrol vessel from Spain

Spain has delivered to the Venezuelan Army the third of four ocean patrol vessels contracted with the naval builder NAVANTIA. The Yekuana (PC-23) will join surveillance of Venezuelan coasts. The commander general of the Army, Admiral Diego Alfredo Molero Bellavia, presided over the ceremony at NAVANTIA's shipyard, in Cádiz Bay. A Venezuelan crew will bring the Yekuana to Venezuela. (AVN, 12-08-2011; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/venezuela-receives-third-ocean-patrol-vessel-spain)

Politics

Chavez tells international media he would concede an eventual opposition win

At a press conference marking the 13th anniversary of his first election, President Chavez told foreign correspondents “We will recognize election results, and always have, whether in favor or against”; he predicted his own victory by a 4 million vote margin and said that the opposition should be asked whether they would recognize his own victory. He also said he is “on the lookout” about the accession of Mariano Rajoy as head of the Spanish Government and added he will not tolerate any intervention into Venezuelan affairs on the part of Spain. More in Spanish: (El Universal, 12-07-2011; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/111207/chavez-dijo-que-reconoceria-una-eventual-victoria-opositora#.Tt_m243mESU.twitter)

An email saying Hugo Chavez was dead grew Venezuelan bond prices

If Venezuelan and PDVSA bonds are worth some $60 billion, then yesterday a computer virus made them gain about $1.2 billion, just like that, as the virus was embedded in an email with a headline mourning the death of none other than Hugo Chavez. The whole thing was bizarre. An email purportedly showing a page from Panama’s La Prensa was circulating, saying “All of Venezuela in Mourning” because of Chavez’ death. But the whole thing turned out to be a virus, as if you clicked in the video of Chavez, it would download a virus which supposedly takes over your PC. Some people did not even click, they believed the news and it spread all the way to debt markets, where it had a not-insignificant effect. The underlying truth is that debt markets would have an incredible rally if there was the possibility of political change in Venezuela. (The Christian Science Monitor, 12-08-2011; http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/Latin-America-Monitor/2011/1208/How-an-email-saying-Hugo-Chavez-was-dead-grew-Venezuelan-bond-prices)

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.

July 11th, 2011

Economics & Finance

Chavez says Venezuela to sell part of any new debt in US dollars

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said part of any new bonds sold by the nation will be denominated in dollars. Chavez announced financial terms for the expanded debt ceiling approved by the National Assembly last month. (Bloomberg, 07-09-2011; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-09/chavez-says-venezuela-to-sell-part-of-any-new-debt-in-dollars.html)

New public debt bond issue approved  for BF Bs. 45.000 million

Chavez has approved issuing a new public debt bond for BF 45,000 million as granted in the Special Complementary Indebtedness Law approved on June 9th by the National Assembly. The bonds will be sold in bolivars and dollars, and the Treasury Ministry will set conditions for these operations, such as prices, interest rates and redemption. More information in Spanish. (Agencia Venezolana de Noticias;  http://www.avn.info.ve/node/66486)

2011 Petrobond for U$D $2.350 billion now due

The bond issued by PDVSA on 25 June 2009, for a total U$D 3 billion has come due. Financial sector sources indicate about U$D 2,350 billion are still in circulation. Although they have come due there are some doubts as to how they will be handled as over 50% were held by the Templeton investment fund, but there are reports that they were traded indirectly two weeks ago by this fund, PDVSA and Venezuela’s Central Bank; with PDVSA reopening its 2013 Bond with a private and direct offer to the Central Bank for U$D 1.783 billion, and the Bank would in turn these bonds over to Templeton in exchange for the 2011 bond. More information in Spanish. (El Universal; http://www.eluniversal.com/2011/07/11/vencio-petrobono-2011-con-$2350-millones-por-pagar.shtml)

Windfall oil revenues at U$D 6.6 billion in second quarter

An increase in Venezuelan oil prices above U$D 90 per barrel over the past few months resulted in windfall oil revenues available to the Executive Office, particularly after the "special tax on windfall oil revenue" was implemented under an April decree by President Chávez. (El Universal, 07-11-2011; http://english.eluniversal.com/2011/07/11/windfall-oil-revenues-at-usd-66-billion-in-second-quarter.shtml)

Central government spending rises 3.8% in the first half of 2011

The Chavez administration is again starting up the expansionist public spending policy it implemented in 2004-2008. More obligations and upcoming elections are boosting spending. Figures from the Ministry of Finance show government spending for the first half of 2011 at U$D 26.16 billion, which is a 3.8% increase in real terms over U$D 19.77 billion in the same period of 2010. Asdrúbal Oliveros, a director at ECOANALÍTICA, says "the government began the year with a spending spree and it is now in a expansionist phase in expenditures." He also says that economic growth is related to current expenditure. (El Universal, 07-11-2011;  http://english.eluniversal.com/2011/07/11/central-government-spending-rises-38-percent-in-the-first-half.shtml)

Venezuela allocates U$D2 billion for joint fund with China

President Chavez has approved a U$D2 billion contribution by Venezuela to the bi-national fund with China, which will contribute another U$D4 billion. “That’s $6 billion for the central railroad system,” which will use a total of $711 million from that fund, and for a metro line in Caracas, which will receive another $350 million, according to Chavez. (Latin American Herald Tribune, 07-09-2011; http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=405865&CategoryId=10718)

Expropriations and seizures total U$D 23 billion

Prepared to increase the State clout on domestic economy, Venezuela's President Hugo Chávez has pioneered a plan of procurement and requisition of companies in a wide variety of sectors. The cost and results of this policy are reviewed by economists Richard Obuchi, Anabella Abadi and Bárbara Lira in a new book called “Management in Red”, published by the Institute of Higher Education in Business Administration (IESA). It reviews the performance of 16 companies that have gone to the State; macro-economic signals and an inventory of costs already paid or publicly acknowledged, in the first stage of expansion. (El Universal, 07-09-2011; http://english.eluniversal.com/2011/07/09/seizures-in-venezuela-amount-to-usd-23-billion.shtml)

Chávez claims his policies rein in inflation

Despite trends shown by Venezuela’s Central Bank which point to 13% inflation over the past six months, President Chávez claims the Government will have “correct policies that will avoid price speculation”.  He added that inflation closed at 2.5% for June, “but we are continuing downward, we continue to rein in inflation”. More information in Spanish. (El Universal; http://www.eluniversal.com/2011/07/11/chavez-asegura-que-hay-medidas-para-frenar-la-inflacion.shtml)

Forbes Magazine ranks Venezuela as one of the world’s worst run economies

FORBES has included Venezuela in a recent ranking of the 10 worst run world economies. The list is headed by Madagascar and Venezuela comes in sixth. The only worse nations are Armenia, Guinea, Ukraine y Jamaica. The list also includes Kyrgistan, Swaziland, Nicaragua and Irán. These are not the poorest countries but those with the worst economic management, headed for the worst results. More information in Spanish. (Tal Cual; http://www.talcualdigital.com/index.html)

Commodities

Venezuela rejects calls to change gold export limits

Industry Minister Jose Khan has rejected calls to change rules that limit miners to exporting only 50% of their gold output. He also says the government has perceived interest by various foreign companies in its giant Las Cristinas gold mine, which has estimated reserves of 17 million ounces but has not been developed since the 1980s. The Minister told reporters "These are regulations that were made to favor these companies; no one can criticize it... no one can reject it. It is an issue of sovereignty." (Reuters, 07-08-2011; http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/08/venezuela-gold-idUSN1E7671MO20110708)

Short fuel supply curbs electrical projects

Expert says "failure to comply with plans and widespread politicization" in the oil and electrical industries over the past few years has resulted in "losing energy security." Nelson Hernández, a Professor at the School of Graduate Studies in Economics and Energy Policy, Metropolitan University, says Venezuela has lagged significantly in investment, works and maintenance. (El Universal, 07-09-2011; http://english.eluniversal.com/2011/07/09/fuel-in-short-supply-curbs-electrical-projects.shtml)

Venezuela Oil Rises to $103.76

Venezuela's Ministry of Energy and Petroleum reports that the average price of Venezuelan crude sold by Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA) rose during the week ending July 8 to U$D103.76 from the previous week's U$D100.43, raising the average for the year to U$D98.43. (Latin American Herald Tribune, 07-08-2011; http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=405377&CategoryId=10717)

Politics

Former VP J.V. Rangel claims Chavez does not have colon cancer

Colombia’s SEMANA magazine reports Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’s cancer isn’t of the colon and isn’t “serious,” saying its source is former Vice President and Defense Minister Jose Vicente Rangel. (Bloomberg, 07-10-2011; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-10/venezuela-s-chavez-doesn-t-have-colon-cancer-semana-reports.html)

Burelli says Chavez ailments raise doubts about the region’s direction

Pedro Mario Burelli, an oil expert and former executive director of state-run oil holding Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) says the key element that will henceforth define political structures in Latin America and Caribbean is the argument raging in Cuba between those adamant in keeping the Castro-style model and those who would bet on dramatic government reforms. He adds the Venezuelan president's current situation offers a chance for changes, as the briefing on his disease has raised multiple doubts about the leading role played by him in the region. (El Universal, 07-09-2011; http://english.eluniversal.com/2011/07/09/ailments-raise-doubts-about-regional-leadership.shtml)

No substitute in sight

A poll conducted by Keller & Associates just before a convalescent Chávez reported that he was fighting against a cancerous tumor shows over 65% of his followers cannot identify a successor. They cannot name a leader other than Chávez, or at least were not thinking about it. Recent surveys and polls show Vice-President Elías Jaua; Foreign Minister Nicolás Maduro and Congressman Diosdado Cabello as the top three. (El Universal, 07-09-2011; http://english.eluniversal.com/2011/07/09/no-relay.shtml)

Trade agreements with Colombia and Perú remain stalled

Three months after a continuance of Andean Pact trade rules was agreed to between Venezuela, Colombia and Perú, no final agreement has been reached to govern trade relations between these nations. Professor Gerardo Arellano, a trade expert, says that under present conditions the prívate sector remains at the mercy of changing official decisions and creates uncertainty. More information in Spanish. (El Universal; http://www.eluniversal.com/2011/07/11/parados-pactos-comerciales-con-colombia-y-peru.shtml)

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.