Venezuelan Daily Brief

Published in association with The DVA Group and The Selinger Group, the Venezuelan Daily Brief provides bi-weekly summaries of key news items affecting bulk commodities and the general business environment in Venezuela.

Showing posts with label Miguel Perez Abad. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Miguel Perez Abad. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 31, 2016

May 31, 2016


International Trade

 

Cargo that has arrived at Puerto Cabello:

  • 30.000 tons of raw sugar
  • 60.000 tons of paddy rice
  • 60.000 tons of baker wheat
  • 10.000 tons of crude soybean oil
  • 30.000 tons of cake of soy
More in Spanish: (Bolipuertos, http://www.bolipuertos.gob.ve/noticia.aspx?id=34185; Notitarde, http://www.notitarde.com/La-Costa/Mas-de-mil-millones-de-toneladas-de-alimentos-a-granel-han-ingresado-al-pais-/2016/05/29/983574/; Agencia Venezolana de Noticias; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/distribuyen-190-mil-toneladas-materia-prima-para-producci%C3%B3n-alimentos; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/economia/60000-trigo-panadero-forman-parte-las-190000-toneladas-insumo_312407; Ultimas Noticias, http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/actualidad/economia/arribaron-al-pais-190-000-toneladas-de-materia-pri.aspx)

 

Trade with Colombia down another 20%

Data from the Colombia’s National Statistics Department (DANE) indicate trade between Colombia and Venezuela during Q1 2016 was only US$ 311 million, down 20% from US$ 389 million last year. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/economia/intercambio-comercial-entre-colombia-venezuela-contrajo_312602)

 

 

Logistics & Transport

 

Airlines suspend more flights to Venezuela as economic crisis worsens

Venezuela has for years seen airlines reduce capacity to this country as they struggled to repatriate revenue. Now, two more airlines are calling it quits altogether. LATAM Airlines Group SA, Latin America’s largest carrier, said Monday that it would cut all flights to Caracas by August. LATAM also highlighted economic conditions, saying it wouldn’t resume flights when things improved. A day earlier, Deutsche LUFTHANSA AG had said it would suspend its three weekly flights to Venezuela next month “until further notice.” The German airline’s spokesman, Andreas Bartels, pointed to the challenge of repatriating revenue from Venezuela and a sharp drop in ticket demand -- especially among business travelers -- with the nation mired in its third year of a deep recession. Venezuela owes Lufthansa over US$ 100 million in ticket revenue. Carriers have struggled for years to transfer back profits from Venezuela, leaving billions of dollars trapped in bolivars -- the local currency. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has been pushing Caracas to free trapped airline revenue. (Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-29/lufthansa-to-suspend-flights-to-venezuela-starting-next-month; Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-latam-airlines-venezuela-idUSKCN0YL1SZ; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/latam-airline-begins-gradual-suspension-flights-venezuela_312593; Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/venezuela-airlines-lufthansa-idUSL8N18R2PM; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/venezuela-owes-lufthansa-usd-100-million-spokesperson-says_312579)

 

 

Economy & Finance

 

Venezuela’s oil income drops to under US$ 100 million per month

The drop in oil prices, the weight of foreign debt service cost, and lower production levels have drastically closed the stream of oil dollars that used to flow into Venezuela’s state coffers, lowering real income contributions to mere drops. Experts report that PDVSA contributions to Central Bank accounts are now below US$ 100 per month, after costs and debt service. This is in contrast to US$ 2-3 billion the company used to contribute two years ago. Russ Dallen, managing partner at Caracas Capital Markets, explains that “the numbers do not work”, leading the Maduro regime to sell off its few remaining foreign assets and spend reserves on importing around US$ 1 billion in food each month. Maduro himself has acknowledged the gravity of the situation, and said: “If we look to January 2010, income was US$ 1.790 billion; it was US$ 2.463 billion in January 2011; it was US$ 3 billion in January 2014; US$ 815 million in January 2015; and in January 2016 we only have US$ 77 million”.  More in Spanish: (El Nuevo Herald: http://www.elnuevoherald.com/noticias/mundo/america-latina/venezuela-es/article80184117.html#storylink=cpy)

 

Economic czar hints at FOREX release

Economic Affairs Vice President Miguel Pérez Abad has seemed to hint that FOREX operations will soon be liberated. He told media “we will soon release, set in motion, the FOREX system, particularly that which is of highest interest to the domestic economy, the supplementary exchange system”. He added that the “exchange rate relies on the market behavior and it acknowledges other stockholders, not only the government, because it is twofold: capture foreign currency, manage foreign currency to accomplish two fundamental goals, such as import substitution and promote exports.” However, expert economist Henkel García, of ECONOMÉTRICA, clarified that Pérez Abad did not promise to fully liberate the exchange rate, “what he meant was that DICOM would soon be implemented, something which has not yet happened…what he is talking about is that the new system would really be one of free access”. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/forex-venezuela-could-set-free-soon_312476; and more in Spanish: El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/economia/refirio-ministro-Perez-Abad-liberacion_0_857314592.html)

 

 

Politics and International Affairs

 

OAS head Almagro seeks emergency meeting on Venezuela

The head of the Organization of American States (OAS) has called for an urgent meeting to see if crisis-hit Venezuela's socialist government had breached democratic rules, which could lead to a process of suspension. Luis Almagro, a former Uruguayan foreign minister, has called Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro a "petty dictator," accusing him of disrupting democracy by blocking the opposition-controlled congress and putting loyalists in the Supreme Court. A statement from the Washington-based OAS said Almagro was invoking the body's Inter-American Democratic Charter and had requested a meeting of the permanent council between June 10-20 to analyze the situation in Venezuela. Venezuela views the OAS as a pawn of hostile U.S. policy, and Maduro has dismissed Almagro as a turncoat working for its ideological adversaries in Washington. A two-thirds vote in the 34-nation OAS' General Assembly would still be needed to suspend Venezuela. Caracas has lost the support of diplomatic heavyweights Brazil and Argentina following their recent shifts to the right. But it still enjoys strong support from small Caribbean and Central American nations, including those who benefit from preferential oil and fuel sales, which could ensure it a numerical advantage in any vote. (Reuters: http://news.trust.org/item/20160531152906-1ybqo/?source=hpbreaking)

 

National Assembly President to ask for the floor at OAS meeting

Henry Ramos Allup, President of the National Assembly, says he will request the floor at the Permanent Council of the Organization of American States (OAS) to raise the issue of the current crisis here. Ramos says initiatives by OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro are “invaluable”. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/venezuelan-congress-speaker-ask-the-floor-oas_312498)

 

UNASUR sponsored efforts toward a dialogue here appear to be failing

The Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) has been promoting talks between the Venezuelan regime and its opponents, using the good offices of former Presidents José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero (Spain); Leonel Fernandez (Dominican Republic) and Panama (Martín Torrijos). A statement by UNASUR Secretary General Ernesto Samper says the talks are designed to strengthen the economy, preserve the rule of law, democracy and national sovereignty. Exploratory talks were held with both sides – separately - in the Dominican Republic last week, but Venezuela’s Foreign Minister Delcy Rodríguez went on media to falsely report both sides had met, which drew a wave of criticism. Opposition representatives called Rodríguez a liar and said that past UNASUR efforts have failed. They stressed that they did meet with UNASUR representatives to emphasize their four key conditions for entering into talks: Immediate freedom for political prisoners, a democratic solution this very year, respect for the National Assembly, and official recognition of the domestic humanitarian crisis. The Democratic Unity coalition (MUD) further said that any effort towards a dialogue is not viable if these demands are not accepted. For its part, the government priority is to block or delay a recall referendum against President Nicolas Maduro. Given the high level of polarization and confrontation for more than 15 years there are no bridges between the government and the opposition here. Civil war talk prevails on both sides, with “chavistas” accusing the opposition of coup-mongering and being the allies of imperialism; and the opposition refusing to recognize any legitimacy in the regime. UNASUR Secretary General Ernesto Samper reported the separate meetings and said they would continue.  (Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-28/venezuela-government-opposition-exploring-talks-to-end-crisis; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/unasurs-samper-believes-possible-talks-venezuela_312540; and more in Spanish: (Infolatam: http://www.infolatam.com/2016/05/30/venezuela-un-dialogo-con-escaso-futuro/Ultimas Noticias, http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/actualidad/politica/pj-no-hubo-ni-hay-dialogo-con-el-gobierno.aspx#ixzz4AEBn9pWv; http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/actualidad/politica/unasur-confirmo-voluntad-de-dialogo.aspx; America Nuestra: http://americanuestra.com/ultimahora-los-4-puntos-de-la-mud-la-verdad-sobre-la-reunion-de-santo-domingo/; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/politica/unasur-haran-nuevos-contactos-para-dialogo-fechas-proximas_312354)

 

Roman Catholic hierarchy says UNASUR is not adequate to promote talks here

Venezuela’s Roman Catholic hierarchy is willing to lend its good offices for talks needed to meet the national crisis, and believes the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) is not adequate as a facilitator for contacts that began last week in the Dominican Republic. The bishops believe that “UNASUR can do little to promote talks, it lacks the strength to further a dialogue, and is not an adequate participant since the government had a lot to do with its formation. In addition, at other times UNASUR efforts came to nothing. A strong player is needed, or several international organizations, that are accepted as valid by both sides”.  More in Spanish: (El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/politica/Conferencia-Episcopal-Unasur-adecuado-dialogo_0_857314617.html)

 

Elections Council calls off key meeting with opposition representatives

Miranda state governor and opposition leader Henrique Capriles reported that the National Elections Council (CNE) called off a scheduled meeting with opposition representatives to discuss the requested recall referendum. He called for new demonstrations to demand action by the CNE, which he accused of stalling. More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/politica/poder-electoral-suspende-encuentro-este-martes-con-oposicion_312614)

 

Kerry welcomes bid to spur talks between Venezuela, opposition

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry spoke to former Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero on Thursday to welcome the efforts he is leading to facilitate dialogue between the government of Venezuela and members of the Venezuelan opposition. Kerry said the United States stands ready to help Zapatero, alongside former Dominican President Leonel Fernandez and former Panamanian President Martín Torrijos, in their efforts. (Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-usa-idUSKCN0YI2BY; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/senator-marco-rubio-adds-names-venezuelan-sanctionable-officials_312523)

 

Mexico calls for inclusive talks in Venezuela

The Mexican government welcomed “the first encounters for talks” between the Venezuelan government and the opposition and made an appeal for an “inclusive” dialogue. The Mexican Ministry of Foreign Affairs says it hopes the initiative will help “Venezuelans find a solution to the tough situation in their country.” (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/mexico-asks-for-inclusive-talks-venezuela_312481)

 

Argentina could seek MERCOSUR meeting on situation in Venezuela

Argentina’s Foreign Affairs Minister Susana Malcorra has announced that her government is calling for a meeting of foreign ministers of the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR) to tackle the current situation in Venezuela. Malcorra said that the democratic clause of the economic bloc is likely to be enforced in Venezuela, but reiterated that “the only solution” to the situation here requires “talks” between the government and the opposition. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/argentina-backs-mercosur-meeting-situation-venezuela_312518)

 

Argentina, Chile and Uruguay appeal for an urgent political dialogue in Venezuela

Argentina, Chile and Uruguay in a joint statement released on Friday issued “an urgent call for an effective political dialogue and a genuine civic understanding among all political and social actors called for political dialogue in Venezuela” and offered to help with a “national reunion” of the political and social forces of the country, The appeal was made extensive to the government, the National Assembly, under opposition control, and all political and social groups. (Mercopress: http://en.mercopress.com/2016/05/21/argentina-chile-and-uruguay-appeal-for-an-urgent-political-dialogue-in-venezuela)

 

Opposition lawmakers report on Venezuela’s crisis in Paraguay

Opposition legislators from Venezuela met with the head of the Paraguayan Chamber of Deputies, Hugo Velásquez, to report that Venezuela is facing “a humanitarian crisis” because the government “has destroyed the country’s productive apparatus.” The delegation told journalists that Venezuela “lacks basic products” and that nationals “are going through an inconceivable situation verging on atrocity,” Efe reported. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/opposition-lawmakers-report-paraguay-venezuelas-crisis_312500)

 

Washington Post Editorial: The agony of Venezuela continues

Numerous governments, including the Obama administration, last week called for political negotiations in Venezuela to head off an incipient and potentially catastrophic breakdown of political and economic order. Former Spanish prime minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero traveled to Caracas with other statesmen to urge President Nicolas Maduro and opposition leaders to start talking. But Maduro was otherwise occupied. At the end of the week, he ordered tanks, aircraft and soldiers to patrol the country, claiming — not for the first time — that he was trying to head off a U.S. invasion. Thus does the delusional heir of Hugo Chávez drag a country of 30 million people, with the world’s largest oil reserves, over a cliff. By most measures, Venezuela is already a failed state: Amid crippling shortages of food, medicine, power and water, every societal ailment is soaring. Inflation is headed toward 700%, and the murder rate is probably the world’s second-highest, after El Salvador’s. According to the New York Times, deaths of infants under a month old in public hospitals are 100 times more common than three years ago, while a coalition of nongovernmental organizations says at least 200,000 people with chronic illnesses lack the medications for them. An April poll, reported by the Miami Herald, showed that 86% of Venezuelans said they bought “less” or “much less” food than they used to, while only 54% said they ate three times a day. No wonder there have been numerous reports of mobs sacking food warehouses, as well as dozens of instances of vigilante lynching of suspected thieves. Thanks to Maduro and the corrupt and incompetent coterie that surrounds him, this chaos is likely to grow steadily worse.  Calling for “political dialogue” is one way to respond to this unfolding crisis. Yet Maduro and other top regime officials, many of them implicated in drug trafficking or other major crimes, have repeatedly failed to respond seriously. It’s time for more pressure to be put on them, such as through sanctions by the Organization of American States under its democracy charter. (The Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/venezuelas-agony/2016/05/24/4db6c3e6-21d9-11e6-9e7f-57890b612299_story.html)

 

Venezuela drifts into new territory: hunger, blackouts and government shutdown

Step by step, Venezuela has been shutting down. This country has long been accustomed to painful shortages, even of basic foods. But Venezuela keeps drifting further into uncharted territory. In recent weeks, the government has taken what may be one of the most desperate measures ever by a country to save electricity: A shutdown of many of its offices for all but two half-days each week. But that is only the start of the country’s woes. Electricity and water are being rationed, and huge areas of the country have spent months with little of either. Many people cannot make international calls from their phones because of a dispute between the government and phone companies over currency regulations and rates. COCA-COLA FEMSA, the Mexican company that bottles COKE in the country, has even said it was halting production of sugary soft drinks because it was running out of sugar. There is often little traffic in Caracas simply because so few people, either for lack of money or work, are going out. Last week, protests turned violent in parts of the country where demonstrators demanded empty supermarkets be resupplied. And on Friday, the government said it would continue its truncated workweek for an additional 15 days. The growing economic crisis has turned into an intensely political one for President Nicolas Maduro, who looks increasingly encircled. American officials say the multiplying crises have led Maduro to fall out of favor with members of his own socialist party, who they believe may turn on him, leading to chaos in the streets. (The New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/28/world/americas/venezuela-economic-government-collapse.html?ribbon-ad-idx=2&rref=world/americas&_r=0)

 

Harrowing scenes of Venezuela on the brink of collapse – in photos

The lines outside Venezuelan supermarkets can stretch for hours, snaking down sidewalks and right-angling around corners. Each one is like a hissing fuse. Will they explode? Venezuela withers away a little more each week. Another food staple or medicine or industrial part goes missing, bringing the breaking point closer. The national guard troops policing the supermarket lines grip their riot shields and truncheons tighter, looking ever more jittery. It all is a waiting game. The government of President Nicolas Maduro is waiting for a rise in oil prices to save it from catastrophe. It is waiting for rainfall to rescue its hydroelectric plants and end the rotating blackouts that have cut the work week for state employees from five days to two. The government is holding on to hopes of another loan from China, or any other creditor willing to lend it a little breathing room. Venezuela’s political opposition is also watching the fuse, and sometimes trying to fan it, but its street protests look small beside the food lines. The opposition took control of parliament in December, but that didn’t matter. Maduro disregards their laws, their votes, their condemnations and warnings. They’re bystanders too, for the most part. For how much longer? The waiting game goes on. Venezuela’s neighbors are playing it, too, wondering if the crash can be softened and how far it may ripple. U.S. officials think the end is close. But all manner of experts and outsiders have been saying that about Venezuela for a while now, and the lines just get longer. The weariness looks like exhaustion in these images from Venezuelan photographer Alejandro Cegarra. His pictures show the Caracas park where he played as a kid, now in ruins, and a nearby McDonald’s, empty of customers because runaway inflation means a Happy Meal costs nearly a third of an average monthly wage. There is no shortage of street crime and violence in this dystopia. While Cegarra found plenty of battle-clad guardsman to keep the supermarket lines in formation, the cop in a nearby park was a cardboard cutout. Venezuela is running on an empty tank. The government can’t stop the slide, and the opposition can’t stop the government. All that’s left to do is wait until something gives. (The Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/in-sight/wp/2016/05/25/venezuela-is-running-on-empty/?hpid=hp_no-name_photo-story-c%3Ahomepage%2Fstory)

 

Spain to monitor situation of its nationals living in Venezuela

Spain will closely monitor the situation of the nearly 200,000 Spanish nationals living in Venezuela in view of the deteriorating conditions in the Andean nation, Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Saenz de Santamaria said Friday.
She cited the “very significant deterioration” of public safety in Caracas and other cities and said Spaniards living in Venezuela are suffering from the same shortages of basic necessities affecting the rest of the population. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2413134&CategoryId=10717)

 

Is the Venezuelan regime committing genocide by omission?

Oliver Sánchez, an 8-year-old child who participated in a demonstration because he was not receiving the chemotherapy procedure he required due to the lack of appropriate medicines, has passed away. Sánchez had Leukemia and, in his last days, he was rushed from one hospital to another because any of them ensured medical attention because of the lack of supplies. He died after 10 days of intensive care in a private clinic. At the same time, patients of Hospital Vargas in Caracas have to buy everything (even their own drinking water), while the company that used to provide food to that public health center stopped doing so simply because the Government does not pay. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2413251&CategoryId=10717)

 

 
The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.

Tuesday, May 17, 2016

May 17, 2016


International Trade

 

Economy czar says more import cuts coming to pay debt

Venezuela’s government, pledging to do what it takes to keep current on its debt, will cut imports by almost half this year to preserve hard currency even as its citizens struggle with shortages of basic goods and soaring inflation.

We’ve applied a very austere program,” says Vice President for Economic Policy Miguel Perez Abad, adding that imports would probably fall to about US$ 20 billion this year from US$ 37 billion in 2015. “We’re going to maintain this level of restriction to force the productive sector of the economy to increase output. Hopefully we could cut imports to as low as US$15 billion.” The country is seeking to reassure investors that paying them remains a top priority even as swaps traders wager that the plunge in oil prices over the past two years means the government is likely to default on its bonds within a year. Eurasia Group, a global research and consulting firm, on Thursday scrapped its forecast for the government to miss payments this year, citing the decrease in imports. Perez Abad reported the regime will get US$ 400 million from the Inter-American Development Bank for projects, especially in electricity. He added that the government expects to sign US$ 5 billion in new project financing in order to diversify income generating projects. (Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-13/venezuelan-economy-czar-says-more-import-cuts-coming-to-pay-debt; and more in Spanish: El Mundo, http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/economia/politicas-publicas/ejecutivo-destinara--16-mil-para-importaciones-est.aspx#ixzz48uOD1Qc2)

 

 

Economy & Finance

 

Maduro threatens to seize closed factories, jail owners

After decreeing an extended nationwide state of emergency, President Nicolas Maduro has threatened to seize factories that have stopped production, and jail their owners. He says the country has to recover the means of production, to counter its deep economic crisis – which has deepened this year, to the point that it has affected immensely the day-to-day life of every Venezuelan. On top of having to queue for hours every week to be able to buy the basic products, now Venezuelans have to cope with energy and water rationing almost daily.  Venezuelans have lost interest in Maduro's moves because of the economic crisis. The latest, like the state of emergency decree or the occupation of certain plants, are in fact already happening and have changed little for Venezuelans' daily lives. The threat to seize closed factories came after Venezuela's largest food and beverage company, the POLAR Group, halted production of beer, blaming government mismanagement for stopping it importing barley. The group's billionaire owner, Lorenzo Mendoza, is a fierce critic of President Maduro. "Anyone who wants to halt [production] to sabotage the country should get out, and those who do must be handcuffed and sent to the General Penitentiary", says Maduro. (BBC News: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36294939)

 

Around 8,000 companies have shut down here over the past 20 years

Venezuela’s Confederation of Industries (CONINDUSTRIA) reports nearly 8,000 have shut down over the past 20 years. CONINDUSTRIA President Juan Pablo Olalquiga says closures due to controls have caused lower productivity. He adds that by Q4 2015 industry was down to 43% capacity, and it is far lower in Q1 2016. More in Spanish: (Infolatam: http://www.infolatam.com/2016/05/15/unas-8-000-empresas-han-cerrado-en-venezuela-en-ultimos-20-anos-segun-gremio/)

 

Pérez Abad claims improved oil loan terms reached with China

Economic Affairs Vice President Miguel Pérez Abad says Venezuela has reached a deal with its main financier China to improve the conditions of an oil-for-loans deal, giving the economy "oxygen" ahead of heavy debt payments. He said that all conditions, including loan time frames, investment amounts and non-financial aspects, have been improved. China has lent some US$ 50 billion to Venezuela over the last decade, and markets are watching to see if Beijing will help President Nicolas Maduro's socialist government as it struggles with recession, shortages and reduced oil revenue. (Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-economy-idUSKCN0Y71VB)

 

,,,,and China says Venezuela’s problem is domestic

A spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry termed Venezuela’s economic crisis an internal affair when consulted whether China plans to give this country any type of assistance. Hong Lei replied: “We hope Venezuela can adequately handle its current domestic situation and safeguard the country’s stability and development.”  He refused to comment specifically on the situation in Venezuela. More in Spanish: (Ultimas Noticias, http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/actualidad/economia/china-situacion-de-venezuela-es-un-asunto-domestic.aspx#ixzz48uMaTRHq)

 

Guerra says domestic economy is not viable without foreign funding

Deputy José Guerra, Chairman of the National Assembly’s Finance Committee, says that the decree on the state of economic emergency produced by President Nicolas Maduro “has worsened the country’s situation.” He termed one of the goals included in the government move “dangerous”, namely the “seizing companies”. Likewise, he criticized possible expropriation of private banks, because “it does not instill confidence” to invest in Venezuela.  Guerra underscored that the National Assembly is the only entity entitled to endorse the presidential decree, as set out in the Constitution, as opposed to the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ). (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/guerra-domestic-economy-unviable-the-absence-foreign-funding_310179)

 

 

Politics and International Affairs

 

U.S. concern grows over possible Venezuela meltdown

The United States fears that Venezuela could face a major eruption of street violence in the coming months, according to senior American intelligence officials who spoke on condition of anonymity in discussing the government’s latest intelligence assessment. In a bleak view of Venezuela's worsening crisis, the officials expressed doubt that unpopular leftist President Nicolas Maduro would allow a recall referendum this year, despite opposition-led protests demanding a vote to decide whether he stays in office. But they said they believed his grip on power was weakening by the day, and that he could be removed from power, either in a palace coup by members of his party or by the Venezuelan military. While the military’s high command appears unlikely to act against the government right now, these officials said, its midlevel officers are more restive. One American official said intelligence officials were worried about some kind of change, but were not aware of any active plots. The United States is increasingly concerned about the potential for an economic and political meltdown in Venezuela, spurred by fears of a debt default, growing street protests and deterioration of its oil sector. The two officials, briefing a small group of reporters in Washington, predicted that Maduro was not likely to be able to complete his term, which is due to end after elections in late 2018. (Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-usa-idUSKCN0Y42MT; The New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/15/world/americas/nicolas-maduro-tightens-hold-on-venezuela-as-us-fears-further-tumult.html)

 

Maduro extends emergency powers by decree

President Nicolas Maduro has extended emergency powers by three months to shore up the country’s crippled economy. The leader added that he expected similar extensions to continue into 2017. The extension, he added, would be undertaken "constitutionally" and would last "for the year 2016 and likely during the year 2017." Such a pronouncement grants the president authorization to take over private business assets in a bid to ensure the supply of basic products to the public. Maduro did not specify if there would be limits to other constitutional rights, but Minister for Communication and Information Luis Jose Marcano said the state of emergency creates "mechanisms for the security forces to be able to guarantee public order needed because of the threats by armed groups". Henry Ramos, head of the country's opposition-controlled legislature, said on Wednesday that Maduro "does not have the constitutional authority to extend the decree beyond the first extension," which he claims was "already unconstitutional." For the measure to be implemented, the National Assembly would have to approve the measure, which it vehemently opposes. (Deutsche Welle: http://www.dw.com/en/venezuelas-maduro-extends-emergency-measures/a-19257646; Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2412312&CategoryId=10717; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/new-state-emergency-threatens-restrict-political-liberties_310125; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/venezuelas-maduro-renews-decree-state-emergency_310095)

 

Venezuela tightens grip on security, food, energy

President Nicolas Maduro’s recently declared a state of emergency gives the government wide-ranging powers to combat its deep economic crisis. The new decree allows the Venezuelan army to distribute and sell food, as well as keep public order. The army is to be backed by organized civilian groups. Officials have also been given control of basic goods and services, and will conduct "necessary and urgent means" to restore and maintain sources of energy. Critics argue the move opens the way for the government to expropriate companies that fail to produce enough staple foods or to meet other government criteria. The regime also intends to increase scrutiny on individuals or groups connected to foreign entities. If deemed too political or destabilizing, individuals or groups could have their finances frozen. The opposition-dominated parliament is more than likely to decry the notion. The Supreme Court, however, is expected to back the state of emergency, thanks to several pro-government judges at the bench. (Deutsche Welle: http://www.dw.com/en/venezuela-tightens-grip-on-security-food-energy/a-19261744)

 

President orders military exercises as Venezuela braces for state of emergency

President Nicolas Maduro has ordered military exercises to counter what he called "foreign threats." The move came a day after he declared a state of emergency.  Maduro claims his opponents are "orchestrating foreign military intervention in Venezuela", and added that undefined exercises by the army and militia groups would "prepare for any scenario.” Opposition leaders accuse Maduro of using the recent emergency decree to destabilize the country and block them from organizing a referendum on removing him from office. "If this state of emergency is issued without consulting the National Assembly, we would technically be talking about a self-coup," Democratic Unity coalition leader Jesus Torrealba told supporters. The Washington Post has cited senior US intelligence officials saying Maduro's government could be overthrown in a popular uprising this year: "You can hear the ice cracking, a crisis is coming," the official was quoted as saying. Maduro claims that a plot against his government is being "activated in Washington" and was being driven by the "fascist Venezuelan right, emboldened by the coup d 'etat in Brazil." This was in reference to the impeachment proceedings against suspended leftist president Dilma Rousseff. Ex-Colombian President Alvaro Uribe said last week that Venezuela's opposition may need protection from outside armed forces. Maduro pledged legal action against Uribe Saturday, without giving details. (Deutsche Welle: http://www.dw.com/en/president-orders-military-exercises-as-venezuela-braces-for-state-of-emergency/a-19258724; Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-14/venezuela-plans-army-exercises-as-maduro-seeks-to-prolong-powers; Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2412216&CategoryId=10717)

 

and charges US spy plane entered Venezuela’s air space

According to President Nicolas Maduro a US military aircraft “with lethal technical capability” entered Venezuela’s air space illegally twice last week. He described it as a Boing 707E3 Sentry “fully equipped for spying”. He said the aircraft was intercepted by the Venezuelan Air Force which forced it to leave the nation’s territory, and “will be severely protested to the US Government”. Maduro added that foreign agents and their domestic allies want to lead the country into a “situation of general violence” that justifies foreign military intervention. More in Spanish: (Diario Las Americas: http://www.diariolasamericas.com/4848_venezuela/3818223_maduro-denuncia-avion-espia-eeuu-violo-espacio-aereo-venezolano.html)

 

Vice President Istúriz says there will be no recall referendum

Executive Vice President Aristobulo Istúriz claims there will be no recall referendum as sought by the opposition due to errors in procedure, He claims: “they came in late, they did it wrong, and they committed fraud”. More in Spanish: (Infolatam: http://www.infolatam.com/2016/05/15/vicepresidente-venezolano-asegura-no-habra-revocatorio-por-errores-en-tramite/

 

Capriles warns that Venezuela will “become a bomb” if the recall is stymied

Opposition leader and former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles describes Venezuela as a "time bomb that can explode at any time". He charges that the National Elections Board (CNE) is infringing standing rules on recall referendums, and asked all Venezuelans to remain “mobilized to demand respect for constitutional rights”. He charged the CNE with “procrastinating so that the referendum does not take place this year.” Capriles adds that the recall “can and should be this year as a majority of citizens want.” The opposition has collected and submitted a petition with 1.8 million signatures in favor of a referendum on Maduro, but the National Electoral Board (CNE) has so far not verified them. The verification process was supposed to take five days but 12 days have already elapsed. Opposition activists say authorities are not letting them proceed to the next stage when they must collect another four million signatures.  According to the Venezuelan Constitution, if a referendum is held before the end of the year, a recall vote against Maduro would trigger new elections. National Assembly President Henry Ramos Allup added that CNE authorities are “trying to pass alleged regulations to apply them retroactively to the signature collecting procedure which has already taken place”. (BBC: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36294939; Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2412210&CategoryId=10717; and more in Spanish: El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/politica/capriles-todo-que-esta-haciendo-cne-esta-fuera-del-reglamento_310112; Infolatam http://www.infolatam.com/2016/05/15/capriles-advierte-que-venezuela-sera-una-bomba-si-impiden-revocatorio/)

 

Ramos Allup: Only the people can put an end to Congress

National Assembly President Henry Ramos Allup has asserted that the National Parliament is backed by the vote of the people who elected them, and only the people can put an end to their mandate, under the Constitution. "We were elected by the people,” and only the people can repeal the National Assembly, said Ramos Allup. His reference was to an alleged ruling the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) has drafted to remove the National Assembly officials for contempt. "It seems they have already drafted a ruling," he said, but they are "awaiting the right opportunity to disclose it." (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/ramos-allup-only-the-people-can-put-end-congress_310103)

 

Human Rights Watch asks the OAS to apply the Democratic Charter to Venezuela

Human Rights Watch says “the collapse of judicial independence in Venezuela and the ensuing spread of human rights violations, along with impunity, infringe basic principles in the OAS Charter and other regional resolutions”, and are reason enough for the OAS to apply the Democratic Charter, José Miguel Vivanco, HRW Director for the Americas, has written to OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro requesting use of the Charter, “even without Venezuela’s consent”. More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/politica/human-rights-watch-pidio-oea-aplicarle-venezuela-carta-democratica_310173; El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/politica/HRW-UPLA-OEA-Carta-Democratica_0_848915358.html)

 

Brazil clashes with Venezuela over Rousseff impeachment

After the Brazilian Senate impeached that nation’s President Dilma Rousseff in order to try her on charges of misappropriation, Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro publicly called the decision a “coup” and a “dirty trick against her, her honor, against democracy, against the Brazilian people”. He also ordered the Venezuelan Ambassador to Brazil to return to Caracas. In response, Brazil’s new Foreign Minister José Serra accused Venezuela, Bolivia, Cuba, Ecuador and Nicaragua of “spreading falsehoods” about the Brazilian political process. In a second statement he rejected statements by UNASUR Secretary General Ernesto Samper in support of Rousseff, and said they could be “incompatible” with the office he holds. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2412179&CategoryId=10717; and more in Spanish: Infolatam: http://www.infolatam.com/2016/05/15/venezuela-le-plantea-el-primer-conflicto-externo-al-nuevo-gobierno-de-brasil/)

 

Roman Catholic hierarchy seeks more talks

Church representatives, from the Vatican to the Venezuelan Episcopal Conference, have expressed increasing concern over the situation here and have called for talks as a way to overcome problems and secure peace. Vatican Secretary of State Monsignor Paul Gallagher is expected to arrive on May 24th, and is expected to review the situation here. More in Spanish: (El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/politica/Iglesia-reconocer-crisis-avanzar-dialogo_0_848315227.html)

 

Former Presidents travelling to Caracas

Opposition leader Henrique Capriles has announced that former Presidents José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, of Spain; Leonel Fernández, of the Dominican Republic; and Martín Torrijos, of Panama, will be visiting here this week, to meet with regime and opposition representatives. The three former presidents have been appointed by the Venezuelan government to work with a “truth committee” and also were here for legislative elections in December last year. More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/politica/expresidentes-espana-dominicana-panama-visitaran-caracas_310169)

 

Pro-government legislator says the: "revolution should stop repeating slogans and review itself"

Eustoquio Contreras, a pro-government legislator within the National Assembly (AN), has advised the Venezuelan government to meditate and stop “repeating slogans” from older times. Instead, it should admit “with political ability and humility” that it has made many mistakes. “Sometimes we continue shouting slogans and dealing with theoretical positions that were built for another era,” he said on private TV channel Globovisión. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/contreras-revolution-should-stop-repeating-mottos-and-revise-itself_310135)

 

Major General Alcalá Cordones: The so-called economic war "stems from the very heart of the government"

According to Major General Clíver Alcalá Cordones, a former Chavez commander of the Guayana Comprehensive Development Strategic Region the “economic war does exist,” but comes “from the very heart of the government.” “The economic war is caused by an FOREX policy that promotes corruption. The economic war is caused by red tape and the discretionary behavior of public servants,” In a television interview he proposed “a good investigation” into regulatory authorities to find “those actually responsible” for the so-called economic war. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/alcala-cordones-economic-war-stems-from-the-very-heart-the-government_310122)

 

 

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.