January 21, 2020

International Trade

US$ 260 million reported in alcoholic beverage exports from Venezuela

Luis Enrique Cardenas, President of the Venezuelan Alcoholic Industry Chamber (CIVEA) reports that close to US$ 260 in alcoholic beverages were exported from Venezuela by the private sector during 2019, particularly to the European Union. (El Universal; https://www.eluniversal.com/economia/59929/exportan-260-millones-en-bebidas-alcoholicas)

 

Oil & Energy

U.S. extends CHEVRON Venezuela sanction waiver

The United States Treasury Department granted CHEVRON another three-month sanction waiver to continue operating in Venezuela, with the expiry date of this latest extension set for April 22. The Treasury Department has been granting Chevron three-month extensions of its sanction waiver for a while now, with the one it announced last October reportedly being a topic of heated discussion in the Trump administration in light of Washington’s attempts to stifle all oil revenues going into the coffers of the Maduro government. Some, however, notably Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, argued that the presence of a U.S. company in Venezuela would help to quicken the recovery of its oil industry when—and if—the government changes. Reuters noted that CHEVRON reported losses of US$ 104 million related to its business in Venezuela for the first nine months of the year. Yet if the Treasury Department stops granting it sanction waivers, Chevron would have to leave the country, which would cost it US$ 2.7 billion in assets. Besides CHEVRON, four oilfield services companies have been granted sanction waivers to continue doing business in Venezuela. However, SCHLUMBERGER, BAKER HUGHES, HALLIBURTON and WEATHERFORD have wound down their operations there to virtually nothing. (Oil Price: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Extends-Chevron-Venezuela-Sanction-Waiver.html; The Houston Chronicle: https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/article/American-energy-companies-to-remain-in-Venezuela-14990649.php; Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-chevron/u-s-grants-chevron-another-three-months-for-venezuela-operations-idUSKBN1ZH0DH)

 

Oil buyers steer clear of Venezuela over Petro payments

Buyers of Venezuelan crude oil have stopped dealing with this nation after officials started demanding payment of port fees in the country’s controversial Petro cryptocurrency. Sources told media outlet World Oil that exports of at least a million barrels of oil were put on hold after the government announced the fees must be paid in Petro tokens. Buyers were reportedly worried that paying in Petro may violate US sanctions. (Coin Rivet: https://coinrivet.com/es/oil-buyers-steer-clear-of-venezuela-over-petro-payments/)

 

Economy & Finance

Venezuela Petro dumped at a 50% discount at LocalBitcoins

Venezuelans are dumping the government-issued Petro, a crypto coin backed by a barrel of Oil, for half its value (US$ 30) at peer-to-peer exchanges like LocalBitcoins. The situation has worsened over the past few weeks as the government has scrambled to tame the USD/Bolivars rate but shutting down avenues for liquidation. At the time of writing, 50k Bolivars equals to $1 while 1 Petro (PRT) is pegged at US$ 60. The Maduro-led regime asserts that each coin is more than a medium of value but a crypto asset, like Bitcoin, in an economy stricken by economic turmoil and world’s leading hyperinflation. According to sources in Venezuela, the government airdropped 0.5 Petro to government workers and pensioners claiming that their effort reached 6 million people. As a crypto asset, the objective of the government was to probably avail a shield for its citizens. However, it soon emerged that people used the same airdropped Petro to buy ordinary stuff through Point-of-Sale and government-supported Petro Wallets. Both avenues were shut, paving the way for people to liquidate at peer-to-peer exchanges. At LocalBitcoins, the value of each Petro was consequently priced at US$ 30, 50% of what the government had set. (Coin Gape: https://coingape.com/venezuela-petro-dumped-at-a-50-discount-in-localbitcoins/)

 

Maduro opens international crypto casino

Nicolas Maduro has authorized the opening of an international casino at a luxury hotel in Caracas where bets must be placed in Petros, the country’s national oil-backed digital currency. Several cryptocurrencies and fiat currencies can be exchanged into Petros to wager in the casino. Maduro announced Friday that he has authorized the opening of a casino at the Humboldt Hotel in Caracas where bets must be placed in Petros. The hotel, located on the peak of El Avila hill, was reopened in 2018. Gamblers must acquire PTR to participate. Following Friday’s casino announcement, the media started reporting that Venezuela may be warming up to casinos again. The Humboldt Hotel’s casino is expected to begin operations in the coming months, but Maduro did not reveal whether he plans to open more casinos. (Bitcoin: https://news.bitcoin.com/maduro-opens-crypto-casino-venezuela/)

 

Politics and International Affairs

Pompeo vows US support as he meets Venezuela's Guaidó in Colombia

Venezuela's acting President Juan Guaidó has met with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Colombia's capital, as he tries to shore up international support amid a power struggle with Nicolas Maduro.

• Venezuela is a "failed state", Pompeo said on Monday, after meeting Guaidó on the sidelines of a three-day counterterrorism ministerial meeting in Bogota. "I would fully expect there will be further action that the US would take to continue to support President Guaidó and the Venezuelan people," Pompeo told journalists. "We do not talk about particular sanctions, but everyone can fully expect that the US is not done," Pompeo warned, without specifying what action Washington will take.
• “I’ve heard this idea that we’ve underestimated Maduro. What’s been underestimated is the desire for freedom that rests in the hearts of the Venezuelan people,” he said. “We are collectively — the Europeans, the other countries in South America, the United States are determined to deliver that outcome for the people of Venezuela.”
• "The world must continue to support the Venezuelan people's effort to restore their democracy and put an end to Maduro's tyranny which harms millions of Venezuelans and has an impact on Colombia and indeed on the entire region", he added. "I want you to know that your president is a great leader who wants to take your country in the right direction — the direction of freedom, democracy, to restore economic prosperity," Pompeo said in remarks directed at the Venezuelan people.
• From Colombia, Guaidó is set to travel on to London, Brussels and Davos, Switzerland, to attend the World Economic Forum.  Guaidó would not confirm whether he will meet US President Donald Trump in Davos.
• Separately, Colombia and the US accused Maduro of harboring armed groups such as Colombia's Marxist-led National Liberation Army rebels and of having connections to everyone from drug traffickers to Lebanon's HEZBOLLAH movement. “After today’s event I think the world has it very clear that there is a dictatorship that finances terrorism,” Guaidó said.
• Pompeo blasted Maduro as an ally to terrorist groups that in contrast to other nations in Latin America is providing “a home” to Hezbollah. “This is unacceptable,” he said."[Maduro is] now running an operation that looks more like a cartel than anything else that one could describe. This isn't good for Venezuela, it's not good for the countries that are around Venezuela," Pompeo said.
• Pompeo kicked off the counter-terrorism conference at the General Santander Police Academy in Bogota – where 22 cadets were killed in a bombing last year – by decrying Maduro as an ally to terrorist groups including the National Liberation Army, the Colombian rebel group authorities say plotted the attack. “These groups must lay down their arms and the Maduro regime must be held to account for its support of them,” Pompeo said.
• The statements could open the possibility of the US including Venezuela in the list of states that support or finance terrorism.
• Maduro allies including Diosdado Cabello, head of the powerful National Constitutional Assembly, brushed off Guaidó’s international tour, dismissing the Bogota event as “a conference of terrorists.” “It doesn’t occupy any of our time, because in truth, it’s insignificant,” Cabello said.
• Guaidó told reporters the fight for democracy "finds alternatives, different pathways, and reinforced mechanisms." He said getting rid of Maduro is a "long-term strategy." "The dictators won't want to give up the power they've taken. ... We're much more like Syria than like Cuba ... in terms of migration, access to services, the inflation. There are no vaccines for our children. They are dying because of lack of food," Guaidó said.

(Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/pompeo-vows-support-meets-venezuela-Guaidó-colombia-200121061021165.html; The Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/articles/pompeo-meets-venezuelas-juan-Guaidó-vows-continued-u-s-support-11579565437; BBC News: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-51169801; VOA News: https://www.voanews.com/americas/pompeo-promises-more-action-boost-venezuelas-Guaidó; Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-20/Guaidó-meets-foreign-backers-of-bid-to-oust-venezuela-s-maduro; AP: https://apnews.com/14d31109b0c60cb574a44d3ad8cd0fde; (PBS: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/Guaidó-meets-pompeo-condemns-venezuela-for-links-to-terrorism)

 

Colombia rolls out the red carpet for Guaidó

 “We are honored by your presence,” Colombian President Iván Duque told Guaidó during opening remarks in a stately reception. “You will always have a friend in Colombia.” Venezuela’s pro-Maduro Supreme Court has barred Guaidó from leaving the nation it’s unknown whether authorities will let him back again this time. “That risk always exists in Venezuela,” Guaidó said to a bevy of journalists as he headed into a meeting with Pompeo. Duque shot back at critics who have questioned Guaidó’s strength Monday, characterizing his efforts as “brave” in facing off against Maduro. “Maybe many speculate, ‘Why hasn’t Guaidó put an end to the dictatorship?’” Duque said. “This can’t be a discussion about individual capabilities. We know your bravery and that confronting a dictatorship with no limits is a task that goes beyond heroism.” (PBS: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/Guaidó-meets-pompeo-condemns-venezuela-for-links-to-terrorism

 

Guaidó to meet top EU diplomat in Brussels

Opposition leader Juan Guaidó, recognized as Venezuela's president by more than 50 countries including the United States and most European Union members, will come to Brussels on Wednesday to hold talks with the European Union's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, Borrell told a news conference. (The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/01/20/world/americas/20reuters-venezuela-politics-eu.html; Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-eu/venezuelas-Guaidó-to-meet-top-eu-diplomat-in-brussels-idUSKBN1ZJ1RX)

 

Guaidó to attend Davos forum

Venezuela’s opposition leader and acting president, Juan Guaidó will attend this week’s World Economic Forum in DAVOS, lawmaker Stalin Gonzalez told AFP on Monday. Guaidó is currently in Colombia, but Gonzalez, a Guaidó ally, said the National Assembly speaker will then head to Switzerland for the annual economic meeting that opens on Tuesday. Despite being banned from leaving the country by the regime of Nicolas Maduro, Guaidó surfaced in Bogota on Sunday, where Colombian President Ivan Duque welcomed him with full presidential honors. (The Japan Times: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/01/21/business/venezuela-opposition-leader-juan-Guaidó-attend-davos-forum/#.XibkAMhKi8U)

 

European Parliament reaffirms support for Juan Guaidó, condemns Maduro coup attempt

The European Parliament has condemned the recent attempted coup to prevent Juan Guaidó from being re-elected President of the Venezuelan National Assembly. In a resolution adopted on Wednesday, the European Parliament strongly condemns the attempt by Nicolas Maduro’s regime to install pro-government candidate Luis Parra as new Chairman of the Venezuelan National Assembly on 5 January of this year. In the resolution, the European Parliament reaffirms their support for Juan Guaidó as the legitimate President of the National Assembly and interim President of Venezuela. MEPs deplore the recent grave violations, which are incompatible with legitimate election processes. The National Assembly of Venezuela is the only legitimately elected democratic body in the country, and its powers need to be respected, says the text. The European Parliament also recalls that the EU stands ready to support a genuine process towards a peaceful and democratic solution to the Venezuelan political crisis. The resolution calls on EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell to step up the European Union’s response to restore democracy in the country, including through targeted sanctions against individuals responsible for human rights violations, but also by extending these sanctions to their family members. The text was adopted by 471 votes to 101, with 103 abstentions. (European Parliament: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20200110IPR70010/venezuelan-crisis-meps-reaffirm-their-support-for-juan-Guaidó)

 

Guatemala's new president cuts ties with Venezuela, as promised

Guatemala’s new President Alejandro Giammattei cut diplomatic ties with the regime of Nicolas Maduro on Thursday and ordered the closure of its embassy in Caracas. The conservative Giammattei, who took office on Tuesday, had already indicated he would cut ties upon assuming power. Maduro’s foreign minister Jorge Rodriguez, in a response on Twitter, accused Giammattei of bowing down to the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump. (Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-guatemala-politics-venezuela/guatemalas-new-president-cuts-ties-with-venezuela-as-promised-idUSKBN1ZF2SB)

 

Maduro says he’s still in control of Venezuela, ready for direct talks with the United States

Nicolás Maduro cast himself as the wily survivor of a dramatic, year-long struggle by the opposition at home and its allies in Washington to unseat him and said it’s now time for direct negotiations with the United States to end the political stalemate.

• He suggested a bonanza could be waiting for U.S. oil companies in this country should President Trump lift sanctions and press the reset button on U.S.-Venezuelan relations.
• Yet if anything, his words revealed the vast gulf that still exists between his authoritarian government and the opposition and U.S. officials who call him a dictator. His positions on key issues suggested no quick fix to the brutal humanitarian crisis that has led millions to flee poverty and hunger in this troubled socialist state.  Speaking in the ornate Miraflores presidential palace, Maduro did not display such willingness.
• He called any new presidential vote still years away. He also denied the assertions of U.S. and European diplomats and opposition negotiators that his government offered the opposition a deal including new presidential elections during talks brokered by Norway last year before they collapsed in the fall. He doubled down on his pledge to hold legislative elections this year — a vote his opponents insist he would use as a tool to further consolidate power. Maduro said he remained willing to sit down with Guaidó — but he seemed to dismiss the opposition’s key demand: that he exit in favor of a transitional government that would renovate the Supreme Court and national election councils to call new elections.
• Maduro seemed to dismiss his growing international isolation. “Do you want me to tell you the truth?” he asked, leaning in. “I don’t care even a little bit about what Europe does, or about what the U.S. does. We do not care at all. We only care about what we do … No matter how many thousand sanctions, they won’t stop us, or Venezuela.”
• Maduro repeatedly asserted his view that Trump had been misled by his policymakers, and he seemed baffled that Trump had courted North Korea’s Kim Jong Un but not him. “I believe Mike Pompeo has failed in Venezuela and is responsible for Donald Trump’s failure in his policy toward our country,” Maduro said. “I think Pompeo lives in a fantasy. He’s not a man with his feet on earth. I think Trump has had terrible advisers on Venezuela. John Bolton, Mike Pompeo, Elliott Abrams have caused him to have a wrong vision.”

U.S. officials have been considering more provocative steps to oust Maduro, including a naval blockade of Venezuelan oil destined for Cuba. Maduro said such a step would be “illegal,” but stopped short of calling it an act of war. Still, Maduro said significant changes could be in the offing if Washington opened a direct channel with him. (The Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/maduro-says-hes-still-in-control-of-venezuela-ready-for-direct-talks-with-the-united-states/2020/01/18/7f609a6e-38a7-11ea-a1ff-c48c1d59a4a1_story.html)

 

Maduro’s foreign minister in Iran, starts 3-day visit

The Maduro regime’s foreign minister Jorge Arreaza began a three-day visit to Iran and was received by his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif, Venezuela's foreign ministry reported on its @CancilleriaVE Twitter account on 20 January. The Venezuelan ministry posted photos of Arreaza and Zarif shaking hands and embracing, with the words: "To start the work agenda that will be developed in Tehran, the foreign minister of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Javad Zarif @JZarif receives the [Venezuelan] foreign minister Jorge Arreaza @jaarreaza to have a bilateral meeting". (BN Americas: https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/venezuela-foreign-minister-in-iran-starts-3-day-visit)

 

Maduro calls for Cuban ambassador to gain access to Venezuelan ministries

Nicolas Maduro said on state television that the Cuban ambassador to Caracas should have access to all the country's ministries in order to coordinate efforts. “For the Cuban ambassador, the doors of all ministries should be open for coordination,” TASS quoted Maduro as saying. He also added that Cuba could “count on Venezuela in everything.” (Teller Report: http://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-01-21---maduro-calls-for-cuban-ambassador-to-gain-access-to-venezuelan-ministries-.ByKaINAQWI.html)

 

Colombia’s leading opposition senator to sue Guaidó

One of Colombia’s leading opposition figures said he would file criminal charges against Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó for claiming he was “financed through Venezuelan corruption money.” During a surprise visit to Colombia, Guaidó additionally called Senator Gustavo Petro an “accomplice” of Nicolas Maduro. Petro responded that “I am neither an accomplice of dictators nor an accomplice of “Los Rastrojos,” a Colombian drug trafficking organization that allegedly helped Guaidó cross the border last year. (Colombia Reports: https://colombiareports.com/venezuelas-opposition-chief-calls-colombias-leading-opposition-senator-accomplice-of-maduro/)

 

Venezuela attorney added to ICE Most Wanted list

Venezuelan attorney and businessman, Raul Antonio De La Santisima Trinidad Gorrin Belisario, has been added to the US ICE Most Wanted list for conspiracy to violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and several counts of money laundering. The action follows an indictment filed August 16, 2017, in the Southern District of Florida, Gorrin’s subsequent escape from justice, and the updated FinCEN advisory of May 3, 2019, regarding widespread public corruption in Venezuela. The indictment alleges that Gorrin, 50, a Venezuelan citizen with a residence in Miami, Florida, paid millions of dollars in bribes to two high-level Venezuelan officials to secure the rights to conduct foreign currency exchange transactions at favorable rates for the Venezuelan government. Gorrin was last seen in Caracas, Venezuela, and currently remains at-large. ICE warns the public to not attempt apprehending the subject. If you have information about the whereabouts of this fugitive, immediately contact your local U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) office or call the national hotline at 1-866-DHS-2-ICE as soon as possible. (News Americas Now: https://www.newsamericasnow.com/latin-america-news-venezuela-news-usice-wanted/)

 

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.

August 08, 2019

International Trade

Panama Canal authorities refute Maduro regime claim over food ship detention

Panama Canal administrator Jorge Luis Quijano has denied claims by Nicolás Maduro’s Vice President, Delcy Rodríguez, who denounced the detaining of a ship headed to Venezuela with primary materials including 20,000 tons of soy cakes for food production. Quijano said no vessel was detained and operations were being conducted normally. More in Spanish: (Noticiero Venevisión, http://www.noticierovenevision.net/noticias/internacional/canal-de-panama-nego-retencion-de-barco-que-se-dirigia-a-venezuela-con-alimentos)

 

Logistics & Transport

TRANSCARGA’s A300B4 freighter idled with stoppage of US-Venezuela ops

On 1 August, the US Department of Transportation denied Venezuelan carrier TRANSCARGA’s request for an exemption to engage in charter cargo transportation between the United States and Venezuela. The DOT cited the Department of Homeland Security’s concerns over security in Venezuela as the reason for the denial. TRANSCARGA requested an exemption from the DOT to engage in charter cargo operations on 5 June, stating in that filing it planned to use its leased A300B4 freighters to operate between Venezuela and the US via intermediate points. For now, TRANSCARGA continues to operate one of two leased A300B4 freighters in its fleet. The aircraft (261) operates in regional service on routes between its main hub in Caracas (CCS) and other destinations in Colombia and Venezuela such as Bogota, Puerto Cabello and Valencia. TRANSCARGA’s second freighter (274), meanwhile, has been idled since mid-May, when flights between Venezuela and the U.S. ceased. Although TRANSCARGA proposed additional screening via intermediate points between the US and Venezuela, DOT said the concerns expressed by DHS “make clear that the conditions in Venezuela that led to the service suspension go well beyond that sole issue.” In its denial, DOT confirmed that it would not allow petitions for reconsideration of its decision. (Cargo Facts: https://cargofacts.com/transcargas-a300b4-freighter-idled-with-stoppage-of-us-venezuela-ops/)

 

Oil & Energy

What impact will new US sanctions have on Venezuela's August crude exports?

New US sanctions against Venezuela will likely impact the country's planned crude exports in August, but by how much depends on the US government's willingness to sanction Russian and Chinese companies. PDVSA plans to export 680,000 b/d of crude in August, of which just 43,000 b/d is going to a company with a waiver from the US government, Sweden's NYNAS, according to a PDVSA document seen by S&P Global Platts. That leaves 637,000 b/d of crude exports that could be impacted if buyers are deterred by the US sanctions. "If US sanctions were extended, they could impact 95% of the crude exports planned for August," said the PDVSA official who spoke on condition of anonymity. "PDVSA will have to grant great discounts and even sell at a loss to export." Roughly 293,000 b/d of crude is scheduled to be exported to China in August, which will go to repaying debts, the PDVSA document showed. The PDVSA source said the company was hoping to export at least 3.9 million barrels in August, or roughly 125,800 b/d, to ROSNEFT, also to repay debts. Crude exported to pay off debts so far seems to have fallen outside of the scope of US sanctions. ROSNEFT said in May it had come to an agreement with US authorities for delivery of Venezuelan crude to Rosneft's Indian refinery, as the supplies were carried out under prepayment contracts. The US has yet to officially acknowledge any such agreements, and it is thought that Monday's executive order signed by President Donald Trump was intended to address that loophole. In the event of secondary sanctions, Maduro's allies can find ways to evade consequences, using certain banks with limited exposure to the dollar payments system or already under sanctions. (S&P Global Platt’s: https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/080719-what-impact-will-new-us-sanctions-have-on-venezuelas-august-crude-exports)

 

China comes to the rescue of Venezuela’s run-down oil refineries

A Chinese contractor - Shanghai-based WISON Engineering - has agreed to shore up Venezuela’s derelict refining network to ease fuel shortages, potentially complicating the Trump administration’s push for regime change in the oil-rich country. The Maduro regime plans to pay for services with diesel fuel in barter deal for urgent repairs. (BLOOMBERG: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/china-comes-to-the-rescue-of-venezuela-s-run-down-oil-refineries)

 

CHEVRON says future Venezuela events may have significant impact

The last major U.S. oil producer in Venezuela is warning that developments in this nation could hurt its earnings. “Future events related to the company’s activities in Venezuela may result in significant impacts on the company’s results of operation in future periods,” CHEVRON Corp. said Wednesday in its latest 10-Q filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The language has evolved from the company’s previous quarterly filing, when it said developments in the country could lead to “increased business disruption and volatility in the associated financial results.” CHEVRON puts the carrying value of its investments in the country at about US$ 2.7 billion. It recognized US$ 21 million in losses from its share of net income from Venezuelan equity affiliates in the first half of the year. (Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/chevron-says-future-venezuela-events-may-have-significant-impact)

 

Russia’s ROSNEFT last major petrol supplier to Venezuela

Russia’s state-owned oil company ROSNEFT has become the last major supplier of petrol to Venezuela, propping up Nicolás Maduro’s regime as the US intensifies economic pressure on Caracas. The lifeline has given Moscow unprecedented leverage over the crisis-hit nation, frustrating efforts by Washington and the EU to push the socialist president out and make way for opposition leader Juan Guaidó. Data seen by the Financial Times show that ROSNEFT supplied Venezuela’s entire imports of petrol in June, as other suppliers fell away. Eight cargos of petrol totaling 1.7m barrels arranged by ROSNEFT Trading, the company’s Geneva-based trading arm, were loaded in ship-to-ship transfers carried out offshore near Malta, Gibraltar and Aruba, the documents show. The tankers then headed for Venezuelan ports, where the petrol was delivered to PDVSA, Venezuela’s state oil company. Publicly available satellite shipping signals, collated by oil analytics company VORTEXA, confirmed that the deliveries had taken place. It is unclear whether the companies supplying ROSNEFT with the cargoes, some of which originated in ports in the Netherlands as well as Greece and Turkey before being transferred at sea, were aware they were destined for Venezuela. “Venezuela’s gasoline supplies depend on Russia,” said a person familiar with the supply deal. “The day Russia stops supplying gasoline, Venezuela grinds to a halt.” Another person with knowledge of the shipments said they were “a purely commercial operation” based on “previously agreed contracts”. The supply arrangement makes ROSNEFT, and the Kremlin, one of the single biggest hurdles to US plans to spur regime change in Caracas. Venezuela used to refine its own petrol but years of neglect and under-investment, as well as plunging domestic crude production, have made the country dependent on imports. There are now supply shortages and long queues at fuel stations in most parts of the country. The 1.7m barrels supplied by Rosneft Trading in June correspond to a supply of about 56,000 barrels per day, or about a quarter of Venezuela’s petrol consumption two years ago. A senior US government official told the Financial Times that ROSNEFT’s continued trading with PDVSA had seen the Russian company discussed as a potential target for sanctions “on multiple occasions”, but the Trump administration had refrained from hitting the company so far for fear of broader ramifications. The Moscow-headquartered company produces almost 5m barrels a day of crude and other liquids or approximately 5% of global supply, so any disruption to its output could lead to a sharp rise in the oil price. (Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/d0645804-b7a3-11e9-96bd-8e884d3ea203)

 

Commodities

Amid rising hunger, Venezuela plantain crops threatened by fungus

Venezuela's banana and plantain crops face potential infestation of a fungus already effecting neighboring Colombia, an agronomist association said on Wednesday, potentially devastating one of Venezuela's main foods amid rising hunger. A hyperinflationary economic collapse has left millions unable to obtain enough calories and has pushed diets toward starchy staples that grow readily in its tropical climate. Venezuela's banana and plantain crops are concentrated in the state of Zulia on the border with Colombia, where 150 hectares (371 acres) of bananas were quarantined in July on suspicion they were infested by the Fusarium R4T fungus. The fungus causes a malady popularly known as Panama disease and can remain in the soil for up to 30 years by attacking the roots of plants. "The devastation of the crops would be very fast" if the fungus reached Venezuela, Saul Lopez, president of Venezuela's Association of Agricultural Engineers, said at a news conference. Venezuela has a combined total of around 70,000 hectares (173,000 acres) of bananas and plantains under plantation, Lopez said, adding that the economic crisis has left the country without personnel to address the problem. The flow of people and food between Venezuela and Colombia creates a significant possibility that the fungus could reach Venezuela, said Edison Arciniega of food-security focused non-profit Citizenship in Action. (Reuters: http://news.trust.org//item/20190807183401-dwhs2/)

 

Economy & Finance

Opposition says new Venezuela sanctions protect CITGO, encourage debt talks -opposition

Venezuela’s opposition on Tuesday celebrated a sweeping U.S. sanctions order against the regime of Nicolas Maduro, saying the measure would protect Venezuela-owned U.S.-based refiner CITGO from seizure by creditors. Three allies of interim president Juan Guaidó also said the measure allowed for restructuring negotiations with bondholders, which had been prohibited under previous sanctions. That could be key to protecting CITGO, since half of state oil company PDVSA’s shares in the refiner were put up as collateral for its 2020 bond. The move comes after Guaidó asked the United States to issue an executive order protecting CITGO, which bondholders and other parties are eyeing for possible seizure to receive compensation from Venezuela for unpaid debts. “Today there is no possibility of losing CITGO,” Guaidó, the leader of the opposition-controlled Congress, who in January invoked Venezuela’s constitution to assume an interim presidency, told reporters on Tuesday. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/venezuela-politics-usa-citgo/update-3-new-venezuela-sanctions-protect-citgo-encourage-debt-talks-opposition-idUSL2N25213Y; https://www.reuters.com/article/venezuela-politics-usa-citgo/new-u-s-sanctions-on-venezuela-protect-citgo-from-seizure-Guaidó-idUSL2N2520PJ)

 

Politics and International Affairs

Maduro halts talks with opposition after US sanctions

Nicolas Maduro has ordered his regime's representatives not to travel to Barbados for scheduled talks with the political opposition starting on Thursday, blaming the US sanctions for the impasse. Maduro "has decided to not send the Venezuelan delegation" for talks on Thursday and Friday with representatives of interim president Juan Guaidó "due to the grave and brutal aggression" being "continuously ... carried out by the Trump administration against Venezuela," a government statement said late on Wednesday. "Venezuelans have noted how the leader of the opposition delegation, Juan Guaidó, has celebrated and promoted these actions that are harmful to national sovereignty," the information ministry said in a statement. Maduro's Vice President Delcy Rodriguez had called the latest US sanctions a "global threat" and an attack on private property. Guaidó said on Wednesday that Maduro could help the country by abandoning the presidential palace, Miraflores, "that way the sanctions will be lifted tomorrow". Guaidó said the sanctions are "penalties for those who steal and profit from misery". (Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/08/venezuela-maduro-halts-talks-opposition-sanctions-190808010151876.html; The Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuela-withdraws-from-planned-talks-with-opposition-11565228327

 

Bolton warns foreigners that violate Venezuela asset freeze

U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton pressed his case Tuesday for sweeping action against Nicolás Maduro, warning foreign governments and companies that they could face retaliation in the U.S. if they continue to do business with his socialist administration. Bolton’s comments came after the White House froze all Venezuelan government assets in the U.S. late Monday, putting the country on a short list of U.S. adversaries, including Cuba, North Korea and Iran that have been targeted by such aggressive financial measures. “The Maduro regime now joins that exclusive club of rogue states,” Bolton said at a one-day conference in Peru of more than 50 governments aligned against Maduro. The broad ban is the first of its kind in the Western Hemisphere since an asset freeze against Gen. Manuel Noriega’s government in Panama and a trade embargo on the Sandinista leadership in Nicaragua in the 1980s. “We are sending a signal to third parties that want to do business with the Maduro regime: Proceed with extreme caution,” Bolton said. “There is no need to risk your business interests with the United States for the purposes of profiting from a corrupt and dying regime.” While the order falls short of an outright trade embargo it exposes foreign entities doing business with the Maduro government to so-called secondary sanctions in the U.S. — a fact not lost on Maduro’s government as it tries to rally support at home and abroad. A senior Trump administration official said the timing of the sanctions reflects the U.S. assessment that those talks, which started in May and are being sponsored by Norway, are going nowhere and being used by the Maduro government to buy time. But even some U.S. allies could be affected by the move, which Bolton acknowledged has been used only sparingly in the past half-century. Several European countries, from Spanish oil company REPSOL to AIR FRANCE, continue to operate in Venezuela and could see their U.S. assets seized unless they cut ties with the government. India and China are major buyers of crude from state-run oil giant PDVSA. All these companies rely on the U.S. to process financial payments. “The truth is that no financial institution wants to run afoul of the Treasury Department,” said Geoff Ramsey, a researcher at the Washington Office on Latin America. (AP: https://www.apnews.com/7314263d68924c2990e52f1ff1ea99d8; Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-usa/u-s-ready-to-target-other-countries-for-supporting-venezuelas-maduro-idUSKCN1UW1MP; https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-usa-bolton/new-u-s-action-forces-choice-between-doing-business-with-caracas-or-washington-bolton-idUSKCN1UW1Q1)

 

Countries supporting Guaidó pledge to maintain pressure on Venezuela ad US hardline dominates talks

An international conference on Venezuela on Tuesday agreed to maintain diplomatic pressure on President Nicolas Maduro’s government, while many participants stressed the urgent need for fresh elections in the country. “We shall maintain the international pressure,” news reports quoted Peruvian Foreign Minister Nestor Popolizio as saying at the end of the conference in the capital, Lima. The meeting brought together representatives of more than 50 countries. Maduro allies China, Russia, Cuba and Turkey did not attend. Neither did Mexico and Uruguay, which have tried to remain neutral in the power struggle between Maduro and opposition leader Juan Guaidó. The International Contact Group on Venezuela (ICG), which includes European and Latin American countries, warned that “the rapidly deteriorating crisis is seriously impacting the region, particularly because of massive migration flows to neighboring countries.” It called for “a negotiated transition that gives the voice back to the Venezuelan people, through free and credible presidential elections.” Popolizio urged the international community to increase humanitarian aid to Venezuelans and support to countries receiving Venezuelan migrants. “It is time to take decisions,” he said, calling for “an adequate international atmosphere to favor a peaceful solution,” including elections. The hardline stance of the Donald Trump administration on Venezuela, as presented at a Lima conference on Tuesday by US National Security Adviser John Bolton, dominated the international gathering called to discuss bringing democracy back to this country. The International Conference for Democracy in Venezuela, originally convened to hear from countries with different views on the crisis in Venezuela, was transformed by Bolton into a platform where he reaffirmed the unilateral US position and explained the measures taken by Washington to remove embattled incumbent Nicolas Maduro and install Juan Guaidó in his place. (Havana Times: https://havanatimes.org/features/countries-supporting-Guaidó-pledge-to-maintain-pressure-on-venezuela/; Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2481911&CategoryId=10717)

 

U.S. and Colombian military are working on plans to aid Venezuela after Maduro

The U.S. is working with Colombia, Brazil and other regional partners on how to assist Venezuela if the embargo-like sanctions announced by the White House this week ultimately force President Nicolás Maduro to step down, the head of the U.S. Southern Command said. Navy Adm. Craig Faller, the Miami-based head of U.S. forces in South America, said the nations are working on “planning and discussing what we could do, and will do for the ‘day after Maduro,’ when there’s a legitimate government, when we can go in and really assist the people of Venezuela.” Faller said that, to him, the “‘day after Maduro’ meant a point in time where a legitimate government, not a Maduro government, has asked the United States and others to come into Venezuela to help.” At present, “our partners are conducting their independent planning,” Faller said. “At some point, it will be very useful to work together, share plans,” he said, noting that any coordinated plan would have to be approved by each country. “And so, there’s a willingness from key partners in the region to do that.” From a U.S. military side, “our focus would be … alleviating human suffering,” Faller said. “The United States is very good at heavy lift - we are very good at supporting delivery.” Colombia’s head of military forces, Gen. Luis Navarro said: “It turns into a security issue for Colombia,” Navarro said. “We are facing a ... humanitarian crisis in the region. For Colombia it’s a large problem. We are talking about more than a million displaced citizens from Venezuela because of the difficult conditions. We have done all we can to host them in the best conditions, but available resources now are not enough.” When asked if Colombia needs more resources from the U.S., Navarro said more support was needed from the international community. “But the biggest help is to fix the current problem in Venezuela,” he added. The drug trade is one of many illicit lines of funding that Faller said Maduro is relying upon as other sources of revenue are frozen by the sanctions, and Colombia’s forces have increased their eradication efforts in recent months, which Faller said would help add economic pressure as mainstream trade is cut off. On Tuesday, the Maduro government called the U.S. sanctions “economic terrorism,” which Faller called “a pack of lies.” “What does anyone think about anything Maduro says? It’s generally a pack of lies,” Faller said. “The additional measures announced by the U.S. are part of that continued pressure that is designed exactly to influence Maduro and those who make up his mafia.” Asked if the military was prepared to provide additional assistance if the sanctions lead to more Venezuelan refugees joining the already estimated 1.3 million in Colombia, Faller said for now SOUTHCOM’s role would be to “continue to share intel and look for indicators for the range of security threats that emanate from Venezuela.” (McClatchy: https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/national-security/article233291967.html)

 

U.S. embargo on Venezuela raises stakes for Russia and China

Behind the administration's recent move is the untested wager that the renewed threat of extraterritorial sanctions against Venezuela's trade partners China and Russia could erode their support for Nicolás Maduro. While it may be rational for China and Russia to back down and realize the economic benefits of the transition in Venezuela sought by the U.S., national pride is also at stake. If Washington cannot convince China and Russia through arguments around economic self-interest, gaining traction with them becomes much harder. Maduro, always spoiling for a fight with the White House, will likely use the embargo to further scapegoat the U.S. for Venezuela's economic collapse. Trump could face a choice to escalate his embargo to a full blockade if the new economic pressure does not tilt support toward Guaidó. Reluctant to enter the fray, China and Russia may still be drawn in should the U.S. turn to military might to enforce its embargo — and it is unclear what lengths they would go to in defense of Maduro. (AXIOS: https://www.axios.com/us-embargo-venezuela-raises-stakes-russia-china-9e4c8fad-e30e-4512-8e27-21071cb087c0.html)

 

China slams US for 'bullying' other countries over Venezuela

China on Wednesday hit back at remarks from a top US official who warned Beijing and Moscow against supporting the Venezuelan regime of Nicolas Maduro and called on Washington to stop "bullying" other countries. On Tuesday, US National Security Advisor John Bolton urged China and Russia to avoid doing business with the Maduro regime, after President Donald Trump ordered a freeze on all Venezuelan government assets in the US and barred transactions with its authorities. Bolton's comments are "a wanton interference in Venezuela's internal affairs," said Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying in an online statement. "China urges the US to... let the Venezuelan people decide their own future and immediately stop the bullying actions of suppressing other countries at every turn," she said. On Tuesday, delegates from about 60 countries discussed ways of ending the crisis in Venezuela in a meeting called by the Lima Group, which includes a dozen Latin American countries and Canada, most of which support Guaidó. During the meeting, Bolton singled out Maduro allies China and Russia, telling them their "support to the Maduro regime is intolerable". He also urged Russia not to "double down on a bad bet," and told China that "the quickest route to getting repaid" for its loans to Venezuela was by supporting "a new legitimate government." (AFP: https://news.yahoo.com/china-slams-us-bullying-venezuela-164347903.html)

 

Maduro regime calls latest US sanctions “economic terrorism”

Washington’s imposition of a freeze on Venezuelan regime assets and a ban on transactions with Nicolas Maduro’s administration is “economic terrorism,” Caracas’ representative to the United Nations said on Tuesday. With this move, the United States has dropped the pretense of caring about democratic norms in favor of an open attempt to “sabotage” the dialogue between Maduro and the opposition, Samuel Moncada told a press conference at UN headquarters. The ambassador cited remarks earlier Tuesday in US National Security Adviser John Bolton, who told attendees at what was billed as the International Conference for Democracy in Venezuela: “The time for dialogue is over. Now is the time for action.” “Mr. Bolton is not Venezuelan. The dialogue is among Venezuelans. Who is Mr. Bolton to stick his nose in?” Moncada asked rhetorically. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2481913&CategoryId=10717; Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-sanctions/venezuela-says-new-trump-executive-order-formalizes-blockade-idUSKCN1UW1KU)

 

…and Russia claims US “economic terrorism”, citing “popular support” for Maduro…

Responding to the latest U.S. actions, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Kazkharova said Tuesday that "Washington continues to wage economic terrorism against Caracas in its customary 'cowboy' manner," arguing that "these steps have no legal justification from the standpoint of international law and domestic Venezuelan law." "Clearly, U.S. strategists have miscalculated the level of popular support for the legitimate President and his readiness to defend the genuine independence of his country," Zakharova said Tuesday. She went on to cite economists Jeffrey Sachs and Mark Weisbrot whose April report for the Center for Economic and Policy Research found "an estimated more than 40,000 deaths from 2017 to 2018" in Venezuela due to U.S. sanctions. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-usa-order-russia/russia-says-u-s-asset-freeze-on-venezuela-is-illegal-ria-idUSKCN1UW1U0; NEWSWEEK: https://www.newsweek.com/china-russia-say-us-failed-venezuela-1453165)

 

US warned that Venezuela sanctions could worsen crisis

Donald Trump’s decision to broaden sanctions against Venezuela is likely to exacerbate the country’s humanitarian crisis and give Nicolás Maduro a new reason to blame Washington for his failures, Latin American civil society groups have warned. While the White House says the measures are necessary to bring Maduro to heel and force him to quit, the civil society groups, which included some from Brazil, Colombia and Peru as well as Venezuela, expressed their “deep concern” over the impact on ordinary Venezuelans. (Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/3755c832-b938-11e9-8a88-aa6628ac896c)

 

Canada looking closely at U.S. freeze of Venezuelan government assets

Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland on Tuesday said Canada was examining the United States’ move to freeze all Venezuelan government assets but stopped short of saying whether Canada would take the same path. “We are looking at them closely,” Freeland said when asked about the new U.S. actions during a joint press conference with Britain’s new Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab in Toronto. Canada has imposed sanctions on more than 100 members of President Nicolas Maduro’s government, and is part of the Lima Group - a bloc of mostly Latin American countries - that recognizes Venezuelan opposition chief Juan Guaidó as the legitimate leader and is demanding that Maduro resign. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-venezuela/canada-looking-closely-at-u-s-freeze-of-venezuelan-government-assets-idUSKCN1UW1PK)

 

Switzerland updates list of sanctioned Maduro regime officials

Switzerland has just updated a list of 18 Maduro regime officials sanctioned for violating human rights and are barred from entering that country or carrying out financial operations there. The list includes Diosdado Cabello, Tareck el Aissami, Freddy Bernal, Maikel Moreno, Tarek William Saab, Delcy Rodríguez, Elías Jaua, Jesús Suárez Chourio, Iván Hernández Dala, Antonio José Benavides Torres and Néstor Reverol. Also, Gustavo Enrique González López, Tibisay Lucena, Socorro Hernández, Katherine Harrington, Sergio José Rivero Marcano, Sandra Oblitas and Xavier Moreno Reyes. More in Spanish:  (El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/noticias/mundo/gobierno-suiza-actualizo-lista-oficialistas-sancionados_291381; Noticiero Venevisión, http://www.noticierovenevision.net/noticias/internacional/suiza-anuncio-nuevas-sanciones-contra-11-altos-funcionarios-del-gobierno-venezolano)

 

WSJ Editorial: Squeezing Venezuela’s comrades

The people of Venezuela continue to suffer under socialist dictator Nicolás Maduro, who is sustained by his patrons in Cuba, Russia and China. So, it’s welcome news this week that the Trump Administration has toughened sanctions against the regime and its abettors. The Trump Administration has morality and regional politics on its side. As Mr. Bolton said on Tuesday from Lima, Peru, the free people of the hemisphere can’t ignore the humanitarian crisis created and maintained by Caracas.  Most of the more than four million Venezuelan refugees who have fled the once oil-rich nation have landed in neighboring countries that lack the resources to easily absorb them. Without regime change in Caracas, the refugee wave could double this year. Mr. Bolton also stressed U.S. support for democratically elected Venezuelan interim President Juan Guaidó. “We seek the peaceful transfer of power, but as President Trump has said from the beginning: All options are on the table,” Mr. Bolton said. A waiver for operating in Venezuela until October—granted to CHEVRON, HALLIBURTON and other U.S. companies at the end of July—may not be renewed. That “will give us an opportunity to land another blow in 80 days,” a senior administration official told us on Tuesday.  Cuba is desperate to maintain control of Venezuela because it needs Mr. Maduro’s oil to keep its economy afloat. But U.S. measures to deny ships access to U.S. ports if they carry oil from Venezuela to Cuba have reduced the number of available cargo vessels ready to do the job. Shipments to Cuba have been cut by more than half, which means Cuba isn’t getting the same return on its investment in secret police and regime enforcers it has sent to Venezuela. Cuba will try to persuade Mr. Maduro that he can wait out the Trump Presidency, despite shrinking oil revenues, hyperinflation and rising discontent in the army. But at some point, Mr. Maduro will have to choose between saving himself or risking his life for the Cuban elite that he finances. (The Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/articles/squeezing-venezuelas-comrades-11565216039)

 

Venezuela's female refugees trafficked at higher rate amid political crisis

As the political system of Venezuela continues to collapse, the country’s women and girls seeking asylum are being trafficked at increased rates, according to a new report obtained by Fox News. Refugees International’s  report, “Seeking Safety: Confronting Sexual Exploitation and Trafficking of Venezuelan Women and Girls,” claims that many of these victims are placed right in the crosshairs of traffickers because there are not enough “legal pathways” for them to seek asylum in neighboring countries like Colombia and Ecuador. They are then forced into fleeing their country through illegal means within the black market, making them susceptible to traffickers looking to place them into forced sex work or labor. (Fox News, https://www.foxnews.com/world/venezuela-female-refugees-human-trafficking)

 

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.