Logistics
& Transport
FAA issues Venezuela emergency order
The U.S.
Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) on Tuesday evening issued an order
prohibiting “all flight operations in the
territory and airspace of Venezuela at altitudes below FL260” until further
notice. This order came out due to the “increasing
political instability and tensions”. This order is applied to all U.S. air
carriers, commercial operators, and “all
persons exercising the privileges of an airman certificate issued by the FAA,”.
Except for pilots flying foreign-registered aircraft or foreign air carriers
operating U.S.-registered aircraft. But pilots can deviate if necessary, in
case of an emergency that “requires
immediate decision and action for the safety of the flight.” The FAA also said that any air operators
currently in Venezuela, which would include private jets, should depart within
48 hours. Yesterday some airlines like Iberia or DHL cancel their flights to
Caracas. The flight of Air France returned to Paris probably because of the
political situation. (Sam Chui: https://samchui.com/2019/05/02/faa-issues-venezuela-emergency-order/#.XMrv6Y5KhPY)
Politics
and International Affairs
US doing everything short of ‘the ultimate’, says Trump as protests
continue
The United
States is doing everything short of “the
ultimate” to resolve Venezuela’s crisis, Donald Trump has vowed, after
clashes between protesters and security forces broke out in Caracas following a
dramatic but so far fruitless bid to force Nicolás Maduro from power by
triggering a massive military rebellion. In an interview with Fox News, the US
president, who is Venezuelan interim president Juan Guaidó’s most powerful
international backer, vowed to continue supporting him in his battle against
Maduro, who Trump called “a tough player”.
“We are doing everything we can do, short
of, you know, the ultimate,” Trump said, adding: “There are people who would like to have us do the ultimate.” Asked
what the options were, Trump said: “Well,
some of them I don’t even like to mention to you because they are pretty tough.”
“It’s an incredible mess … The place is
so bad and so dangerous … so something is going to have to be done,” the US
president added in the rambling 10-minute interview. “A lot of things will be going on over the next week and sooner than
that. We will see what happens.” David Smilde, a Venezuela expert from the
Washington Office on Latin America, said the defection of the head of
Venezuela’s intelligence services, SEBIN, showed Maduro’s military support was
fragile. Jair Bolsonaro said Brazilian intelligence suggested “there is indeed a fracture which is moving
closer and closer to the top of the armed forces. So, it is possible the
government will collapse because some of those at the top switch sides,”
Bolsonaro added. The US national security adviser, John Bolton, also claimed
the Maduro regime was close to falling. “Our
judgment is that the overwhelming number of military service members in the
country support Juan Guaidó and the opposition,” Bolton said: “It’s just a matter of time before they come
over the opposition and some of that could happen today.” (The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/01/venezuela-protests-latest-Guaidó-calls-peaceful-coup-against-maduro; Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-01/trump-s-bet-on-Guaidó-is-tested-as-maduro-remains-in-caracas)
Pompeo says military action in Venezuela 'possible'
US Secretary
of State Mike Pompeo reiterated Wednesday that US military action in Venezuela
is an option in the wake of this week's violent protests, despite military
officials and experts casting doubt on the prudence of such a move. "The President has been crystal clear and
incredibly consistent. Military action is possible. If that's what's required,
that's what the United States will do," Pompeo said on Fox Business
Network. "We're trying to do
everything we can to avoid violence. We've asked all the parties involved not
to engage in the kind of activity. We'd prefer a peaceful transition of
government there, where Maduro leaves and a new election is held. But the
President has made clear, if there comes a moment -- and we'll all have to make
decisions about when that moment is -- and the President will have to
ultimately make that decision. He is prepared to do that if that's what's
required." (CNN: https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/01/politics/mike-pompeo-venezuela-military-action/index.html)
U.S. military acknowledged exhaustive
contingency planning for Venezuela
The
Pentagon on Wednesday appeared to downplay any active preparations to directly
intervene in Venezuela to topple Nicolás Maduro but acknowledged detailed
contingency planning as political turmoil here deepens. Hours after U.S.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the United States was prepared to take
military action, if necessary, acting U.S. Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan
said the United States had carried out "exhaustive planning" on Venezuela. But he and other officials
continued to emphasize diplomatic and economic pressure to help oust Maduro, as
opposed to a U.S.-military led regime change. Asked at one point whether the
U.S. military had been given instructions to prepare for a conflict in
Venezuela, perhaps by prepositioning U.S. troops, Kathryn Wheelbarger, the
acting assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, said:
"We, of course, always review
available options and plan for contingencies. But in this case, we have not
been given (the) sort of orders that you're discussing, no,"
Wheelbarger told the House Armed Services Committee. So far, the U.S. military
has been largely a spectator amid the unfolding U.S. foreign policy decisions
on Venezuela, although it offered small contributions, like helping shuttle
humanitarian aid to Colombia for further transport to Venezuela. It has also
ramped up its intelligence collection and intelligence sharing with allies, like
Colombia, while planning for a possible non-combatant evacuation of Americans
from Venezuela, should the need arise. Such planning is standard in any crisis
of Venezuela's magnitude. The top uniformed U.S. military officer, Marine
General Joseph Dunford, said he was focused on intelligence gathering and being
prepared to respond, if Trump sought greater involvement by the Pentagon. But
he stressed that the military should act in a way that deepens its partnerships
in Latin America -- where the prospect of U.S. military intervention is deeply
unpopular. "I think it really is
very, very important that we work with others in the region to solve this
problem," Dunford said. U.S. Navy Admiral Craig Faller, commander of
U.S. Southern Command, which oversees U.S. forces in Latin America, said a big
focus for the United States and its partners in the region would be helping to
restore vital Venezuelan economic infrastructure after Maduro's exit --
something he called "Day Now"
planning. "We call it 'Day Now'
because there is going to be a day when the legitimate government takes over,
and it's going to come when we least expect it -- and it could be right now,"
Faller said. When asked if he saw a role for the U.S. military in overthrowing
Maduro's government, Faller said: "Our
leadership's been clear: It has to be, should be, primarily a democratic
transition." Still, he said Southern Command was ready to act if called
upon for any scenario. "We're on the
balls of our feet," he said. Despite the normally apolitical role of
members of the military, Faller voiced a direct -- and political -- message to
the Venezuelan armed forces, calling on them "to do the right thing." "A transition to legitimate democracy is underway, and I have a message
for the professionals in the Venezuelan military and security forces -- the
brutal dictatorship of Maduro has led to this man-made crisis. Cuba and Russia
have invaded your country and disgraced your sovereignty. You have a chance to
do the right thing and alleviate the suffering of your people and your families
-- those you have sworn an oath to protect," he said. In a sign the
crisis was grabbing the full attention of Trump's national security leaders,
Shanahan canceled a planned trip to Europe on Wednesday, in part to help
coordinate with the White House National Security Council and State Department
on Venezuela. (The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2019/05/01/world/americas/01reuters-venezuela-politics-usa-military.html; Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-usa-military/u-s-military-not-given-orders-to-prepare-for-war-in-venezuela-idUSKCN1S744M;
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-usa-planning/u-s-has-done-exhaustive-planning-on-venezuela-scenarios-shanahan-idUSKCN1S74CP)
Russia hits back at U.S. over Venezuela, warns
of ‘most serious consequences’
Russia has
hit back at repeated warnings from the United States over Moscow's alleged role
in Venezuela, where Washington has endorsed an attempt to oust the country's
socialist regime. As the three-month standoff between Nicolás Maduro and
opposition-controlled National Assembly speaker Juan Guaidó grew violent
Tuesday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo alleged that the Venezuelan leader
"had an airplane on the tarmac, he
was ready to leave" to Cuba, but "the Russians indicated he should stay." Russia dismissed this
narrative Wednesday, with the two country's top diplomats reportedly having it
out during a telephone call. "The
focus was on the situation in Venezuela, where yesterday the opposition, with
the clear support of the United States, attempted to seize power. It was
stressed on the Russian side that Washington’s interference in the internal
affairs of a sovereign state and the threat against its leadership is a gross
violation of international law," the Russian Foreign Ministry said in
a readout of the talk between Pompeo and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei
Lavrov. "It was indicated that the
continuation of aggressive steps would be fraught with the most serious
consequences," the statement added. The State Department later
released its own readout of the call, during which Pompeo "stressed that the intervention by Russia and
Cuba is destabilizing for Venezuela and for the U.S.-Russia bilateral
relationship," according to spokesperson Morgan Ortagus. "The Secretary noted the Russian Foreign
Ministry’s April 30 statement calling for the renunciation of violence and
support for Venezuela’s return to stability and prosperity," the
statement read. "The Secretary urged
Russia to cease support for Nicolas Maduro and join other nations, including
the overwhelming majority of countries in the Western Hemisphere, who seek a
better future for the Venezuelan people." (Newsweek: https://www.newsweek.com/russia-us-venezuela-conflict-warns-serious-consequences-1411720; Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-usa/tension-grows-between-u-s-and-russia-over-venezuela-standoff-idUSKCN1S73VN;
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-usa-russia/pompeo-urges-end-to-russian-involvement-in-venezuela-state-department-idUSKCN1S74G8;
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-russia-usa/russia-warns-u-s-over-aggressive-moves-in-venezuela-idUSKCN1S74BF;
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-russia/russia-denies-u-s-claim-it-told-venezuelas-maduro-not-to-flee-idUSKCN1S73K3)
Thousands of Venezuelans have taken to the
streets in Caracas heeding Juan Guaidó ‘s call
As tens of
thousands of Venezuelan returned to the streets on Wednesday, Juan Guaidó, the
young opposition leader who led that attempted mutiny on Tuesday morning, told
demonstrators in the capital, Caracas, they needed to intensify their “peaceful rebellion” against Maduro. “Every day there will be acts of protest
until we achieve our liberty,” Guaidó announced. “They thought they could suffocate our protest yesterday and they
failed. We will remain in the streets until Venezuela is free.” The
country’s political crisis returned to a protracted standoff punctuated by violence
on Wednesday, with the government and protesters seeking to project strength at
rival May Day rallies. “There’s no
turning back,” Juan Guaidó, the opposition leader, told supporters in
Caracas, the capital, where tear gas fired by riot police officers shrouded
some protest sites. “Despite the repression,
we’re still here.” There were reports late in the day that armed
pro-government forces used live fire against some protesters in Altamira, part
of a Caracas area where the opposition is strong. A 27-year-old woman died from
a gunshot wound to the head while protesting there. Thousands of Mr. Guaidó’s
supporters in Caracas and elsewhere heeded his call to demonstrate, although
not enough to meet his promise to stage “the
biggest march in history.” Still, his ability to remain at large and to
rally supporters — after his attempt to recruit the military to his side
sputtered on Tuesday — underlined the weaknesses in the regime of his opponent,
Nicolás Maduro. Mr. Guaidó called on Venezuelan workers to begin “rolling strikes” starting Thursday,
building to a general strike later in the month. It was unclear how much
pressure that would apply since most companies already operate at minimum
capacity after five years of recession. Momentum on the street has flagged.
Protest fatigue and constant power and water outages have sapped morale. Attempts
by Mr. Guaidó’s supporters to gather at rallying points in Caracas’s downtown
Wednesday were swiftly repressed by police officers and national guard members
with tear gas, forcing them to fall back to the middle-class opposition
stronghold of Chacao in the east of the capital. But by late afternoon, many of
the protesters in the capital Caracas had drifted home. National Guards fired
tear gas at a hardcore of demonstrators who remained. Chacao’s health
authorities said 39 protesters were injured on Wednesday. The defense minister,
General Vladimir Padrino, said on Twitter that eight soldiers had been wounded
by firearms while “confronting coup
violence.” He added, “How long will
the impunity last? Across town in central Caracas, thousands of Maduro’s
supporters dressed in red marched along the main highway toward the
presidential palace. Most appeared to be retirees or public sector workers. Many
were brought in from across the country by public buses that stretched for
miles on the side of the highway, underlining the government’s desire to
portray strength and tenacity after the failed uprising. (The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/01/world/americas/venezuela-protests-Guaidó-maduro.html; Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics/venezuelan-protests-peter-out-as-maduro-hangs-on-u-s-and-russia-squabble-idUSKCN1S734M;
Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-05-01/venezuela-s-Guaidó-takes-a-big-risk-for-a-small-win;
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-30/Guaidó-s-high-risk-gamble-flops-as-maduro-keeps-grip-on-military;
The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/01/venezuela-protests-latest-Guaidó-calls-peaceful-coup-against-maduro)
There weren't enough military defectors for Guaidó
to declare a victory yesterday, he admits
Speaking to
a crowd in Caracas, Juan Guaidó admitted that he did not have enough military
defectors on his side to declare victory during yesterday's unrest. "We have to acknowledge that yesterday there
weren't enough [pro-Guaidó military defectors]," the National Assembly
President and opposition leader said. He added: "We have to insist that all the armed forces [show up] together. We are not
asking for a confrontation. We are not asking for a confrontation among
brothers, it’s the opposite. We just want them to be on the side of the people."
(CNN: https://www.cnn.com/americas/live-news/venezuela-crisis-live-may-day-protests-intl/index.html)
Head of Venezuela's secret police turns his
back on Nicolas Maduro
The head of
Venezuela's secret police has broken ranks with Nicolas Maduro as the country
braces for a second day violence following the turmoil surrounding a military
uprising. In a possible sign that Maduro's inner circle could be fracturing,
the head of Venezuela's secret police wrote a letter on Tuesday breaking ranks
with the embattled leader. In a letter
directed to the Venezuelan people, Manuel Ricardo Cristopher Figuera - the head
of Venezuela's feared SEBIN intelligence agency - said he had always been loyal
to Maduro but now it is time to 'rebuild
the country'. He said corruption has become so rampant that 'many high-ranking public servants practice
it like a sport'. 'The hour has
arrived for us to look for other ways of doing politics,' Figuera wrote. The
authenticity of the letter circulating on social media was confirmed by a
senior U.S. official. (The Daily Mail: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6979389/Head-Venezuelas-secret-police-turns-Nicolas-Maduro.html)
US: Venezuelan officials who were negotiating Maduro
exit have gone dark
US Special
Representative for Venezuela Elliott Abrams said on Wednesday that top
officials with the Venezuelan government who allegedly were negotiating with
the opposition for Nicolas Maduro to step down have “turned off their cellphones.” “I’ve
run across the fact that many of them have turned off their cellphones,”
Abrams said in an interview with EFE. The US government said on Tuesday that
three key officials with the Maduro government – Defense Minister Vladimir
Padrino Lopez, Supreme Court of Justice president Maikel Moreno and
Presidential Honor Guard commander Ivan Rafael Hernandez Dala – were
negotiating with the opposition to break with Maduro and back Juan Guaidó, who
has been recognized as the country’s interim president by 54 nations.
When asked if Padrino Lopez, Moreno and Hernandez Dala are the ones who have turned off their cellphones, Abrams said only that “I’m referring to many people at top levels of the Venezuelan government.” (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2478022&CategoryId=10717)
When asked if Padrino Lopez, Moreno and Hernandez Dala are the ones who have turned off their cellphones, Abrams said only that “I’m referring to many people at top levels of the Venezuelan government.” (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2478022&CategoryId=10717)
Maduro vows retaliation for “coup attempt” as he denies attempts to
flee to Cuba
Nicolas
Maduro declared victory in a defiant televised address late on Tuesday over the
attempted uprising, vowing retaliation against those who plotted a "coup" to remove him from office. "This will not go unpunished," Maduro
said in his first address, broadcast on television and the radio, since the
pre-dawn attempt to remove him by a group of soldiers led by opposition leader
and interim president Juan Guaidó. Maduro also used his speech to deny claims
by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that he had intended to flee to Cuba amid
a military uprising against him. "Mike
Pompeo said that... Maduro had a plane ready to take him to Cuba, but the
Russians prevented him from leaving the country. Mister Pompeo, please, this
really is a joke," Maduro said. Maduro insisted he had seen off
Tuesday’s attempt to topple him with the backing of “loyal and obedient” members of Venezuela’s Bolivarian armed forces.
Flanked by Venezuela’s military and political elite, Maduro blamed Venezuela’s
“coup-mongering far right” and Donald
Trump’s deranged imperialist “gang”
for what he called Tuesday’s attempted coup. “I truly believe … that the United States of America has never had a
government as deranged as this one,” On Tuesday night at least 25
Venezuelan troops sought asylum in Brazil's embassy in Caracas, a senior
Brazilian official said. A spokesman for Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro
said soldiers and lieutenants were among the applicants. The petitions for
asylum came as Bolsonaro threw his support behind Venezuelans "enslaved by a dictator" "Brazil is on the side of the people of
Venezuela, President Juan Guaidó and the freedom of Venezuelans,"
Bolsonaro said in a series of tweets. (The Telegraph: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/04/30/venezuela-latestviolent-clashes-opposition-leader-juan-Guaidó/; The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/01/venezuela-protests-latest-Guaidó-calls-peaceful-coup-against-maduro)
Opposition leader Lopez and family in Spain’s
Venezuela Embassy
Venezuelan
opposition figure Leopoldo Lopez, his wife Lilian Tintori and their
15-month-old daughter are currently in the Spanish embassy in Caracas just a
day after the activist was released from house arrest in a dramatic operation
orchestrated by interim President Juan Guaidó and a group of defecting
soldiers, Spain’s foreign ministry said on Wednesday. Lopez, who had been
serving an almost 14-year sentence under house arrest for charges linked to
anti-regime protests back in 2014, was released Tuesday morning. (Latin
American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2478002&CategoryId=10717)
U.N.
rights office concerned by use of force in Venezuela
The United
Nations human rights office said on Wednesday it was “extremely worried” by reports of excessive use of force against
demonstrators across Venezuela. “In light
of the mass protests planned for today, we call on all sides to show maximum
restraint and for the authorities to respect the right to peaceful assembly. We
also warn against the use of language inciting people to violence,” it said
in a statement. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-un/u-n-rights-office-concerned-by-use-of-force-in-venezuela-idUSKCN1S74DA)
Venezuela social media blackout lifted minutes
before President Maduro's speech
The
Venezuelan regime is clamping down on social media as Nicolas Maduro battles Juan
Guaidó's calls for a popular uprising. Network data collected by internet
observatory Netblocks shows the country's state-run internet provider
restricted access to social media on Tuesday. The restrictions were imposed on
Twitter, Periscope, YouTube, Facebook and several other services shortly after Guaidó
announced what he called the final phase of Operation Freedom. Unrestricted
internet access was finally restored just 20 minutes before a live-streamed
speech by Maduro in which he accused the US and Colombia of backing opponents
of his regime. According to Netblocks, the network data is consistent with
state censorship events during other public appearances by Mr. Guaidó, as well
as during "a politically significant
session of the Venezuelan National Assembly" which was live-streamed. Access
to each of the targeted services was intermittently available, as it was in
previous filtering events, but Netblocks stated the extent of Tuesday's blocks
was unprecedented in Venezuela. The online crackdown has been accompanied by a
physical response to demonstrations in the streets. (SKY News: https://news.sky.com/story/venezuela-social-media-blackout-lifted-minutes-before-president-maduros-speech-11708427)
Brazil backs Venezuela uprising, but says it
won't intervene militarily
Brazil’s government
threw its support behind Venezuelan interim president Juan Guaidó’s push to
oust Nicolas Maduro on Tuesday and called on other nations to do the same. Brazil’s
President Jair Bolsonaro, a former army officer, wrote on his official Twitter
account that the people of Venezuela are “enslaved
by a dictator” and that he supports “freedom
for our sister nation to finally become a true democracy.” His security
adviser, retired general Augusto Heleno, said he was shocked by an image of an
armored car of Venezuela’s National Guard apparently running over protesters. But
he said the situation was not clear, Guaidó’s support among the military
appeared to be “weak” and it was uncertain
whether military officers were abandoning Maduro. Presidential spokesman
General Otavio Rego Barros told reporters Brazil had completely ruled out
intervening militarily in Venezuela and was not planning to allow any other
country to use its territory for any potential intervention in its neighbor. Earlier,
Brazil’s foreign Minister Ernesto Araujo said it was “positive” to see movement
of some Venezuelan military toward recognizing Guaidó as the legitimate
president of their country. “Brazil
supports the democratic transition process and hopes the Venezuelan military
will be part of that,” Araujo said. (Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-brazil/brazil-backs-venezuela-uprising-but-says-it-wont-intervene-militarily-idUSKCN1S61MK)
Number
of Venezuelans fleeing to Brazil surges during attempt to oust Maduro
Close to
triple the usual number of Venezuelans fled to Brazil on Tuesday, when
Venezuelan interim president¿ Juan Guaidó led an attempt to oust socialist
leader Nicolas Maduro from power, according to Brazilian government data
released on Wednesday. Some 850 Venezuelans came to Brazil on Tuesday by foot,
the government said, compared with the usual range of between 250 and 300. The
migrants arrived in Brazil’s Roraima state, one of the country’s most isolated
and poor, which borders Venezuela and has seen thousands of migrants arrive in
recent months. A wider exodus has pushed millions of Venezuelans largely to
Colombia and Peru. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-brazil/number-of-venezuelans-fleeing-to-brazil-surges-during-attempt-to-oust-maduro-idUSKCN1S740W)
“We must
protect our citizens first”: Peru expels 40 Venezuelans
Peru has
deported more than 40 Venezuelan migrants for concealing they had criminal
records or for residing illegally in the country, Interior Minister Carlos
Moran said in the wake of first large expulsion since hundreds of thousands of
Venezuelans fled to Peru to escape their country's economic crisis. The
migrants were arrested in different districts of the capital, Lima, in a police
operation early on Monday, and were put on a military plane headed to Venezuela
hours later. Moran said most of the Venezuelans expelled had provided false
sworn declarations in their residency applications that they had no criminal
record, a violation of Peru's migration law punishable with deportation. Others
were deported for residing illegally in the Andean country, Moran added,
without providing details. Peru, which has a population of 32 million, has the
second-largest population of Venezuelan migrants after Colombia. Most of the
700,000 Venezuelans in Peru arrived in the past year. "As a country, we have fraternally welcomed
thousands of Venezuelans who have come to seek a better future," Moran
told reporters. "But as a
government, we must protect our citizens first, and these people who have
entered lying, falsifying information, had criminal records, and that's a
threat." Peru created temporary residency permits for Venezuelans in
early 2017, allowing them to work and receive health and education services. But
last year, the government of President Martin Vizcarra stopped allowing new
applicants into the program, which has granted permits to more than 330,000
Venezuelans and is processing requests for 160,000 others. 67% of Peruvians now
view Venezuelan immigration as negative, compared with 43% in February 2018,
according to an Ipsos poll published in daily El Comercio on Monday. Crime was
listed as the top concern, followed by fears about jobs. (Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/04/protect-citizens-peru-expels-venezuelans-190430052927726.html)
Cubans
protest U.S. sanctions as Trump raises pressure on Venezuela
Millions of
Cubans took to the streets on Wednesday in protest over new sanctions imposed
on the Caribbean island by the Trump administration and U.S. efforts to topple
the government of socialist ally Venezuela. “We will give a strong, firm and revolutionary response to the
statements loaded with threats, provocations, lies and slander of the Yankee
empire,” tweeted Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel as dawn broke over
Havana. The annual marches across the Communist-run country, marking
International Workers Day, provided the first opportunity to publicly protest a
U.S. offensive against socialism in the region declared by U.S. national
security advisor John Bolton late last year. That was followed by a series of
new sanctions against Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua and the appearance of
shortages of basic goods on the island. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cuba-protests-usa/cubans-protest-u-s-sanctions-as-trump-raises-pressure-on-venezuela-idUSKCN1S742Q)
OP-ED: How an elaborate plan to topple Venezuela’s
President went wrong, by Uri Friedman
In the
effort to topple Nicolás Maduro, Colombia’s ambassador to the United States
once told me, the military men propping up Venezuela’s authoritarian president
are like chess pieces. If they defect from the regime, “you lose that chess piece,” Francisco Santos explained. “They work better from the inside.” As
Tuesday, April 30, began, the United States and its allies thought they finally
had checkmate, after months of building up the opposition leader Juan Guaidó as
Venezuela’s legitimate president and recruiting more than 50 nations to their
cause. By the end of the day, the board had been flipped upside down, pieces
were scattered everywhere, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was on CNN
blaming the kingmakers, Russia and Cuba, for sabotaging the game. Donald
Trump’s administration has at the same time continued issuing warnings to
Maduro and his associates, though it’s unclear what effect they will have or
whether they will save Guaidó. (In the latest sign that major U.S. actions
could still be in the offing, acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan has
canceled a trip to Europe in order to coordinate with the National Security
Council and State Department on Venezuela.) Maduro’s airplane was on the tarmac
and he was prepared to depart for Cuba on Tuesday morning, but “the Russians indicated he should stay,”
the U.S. secretary of state revealed. (The Russians have disputed this
account.) The Cubans, he added, are “protecting
this thug” and are “at the center of
this malfeasance.” Donald Trump, who earlier in the day had cheered on the
pro-democracy demonstrators on Twitter, returned to the site to threaten a “complete embargo” and “highest-level sanctions” on Cuba if “Cuban Troops and Militia do not immediately
CEASE military and other operations” in Venezuela. As Operation Freedom
went sideways, U.S. officials began divulging details of an effort that had
gone spectacularly wrong. Bolton named three top Venezuelan officials—Defense
Minister Vladimir Padrino; Supreme Court Chief Justice Maikel Moreno; and the
commander of the presidential guard, Iván Rafael Hernández Dala—who he claimed
had been engaged in lengthy talks with the Venezuelan opposition and had “all agreed that Maduro had to go,” only
to renege this week (at least so far) on their commitments to facilitate a
democratic political transition. In a tweet addressed to the three men, Bolton
suggested that the terms of the deal had been to help remove Maduro from power
in exchange for amnesty from Guaidó and the lifting of U.S. sanctions against
them. Wednesday, Bolton outlined how the plan was supposed to work. The senior
officials and Guaidó would sign documents memorializing their agreement. The
Venezuelan Supreme Court would declare Maduro’s Constituent Assembly
illegitimate and thereby legitimize the Guaidó-led National Assembly. Military
leaders like Padrino would then have the political and legal cover to act
against Maduro. Yet “for reasons that are
still not clear, that didn’t go forward yesterday,” Bolton admitted. Another
senior official, the head of Venezuela’s intelligence service, did in fact
split with Maduro, according to U.S. officials. Bolton offered one theory for
why the plan never came to fruition: The Cuban government had prevailed on the
three officials to stick with their boss. Fear of the tens of thousands of
Cuban security forces in the country, he argued, is keeping military officials
in check. On television and Twitter on Tuesday, the defense minister repeatedly
backed Maduro. But by ratting out Padrino and the other officials, and thus
exposing them to Maduro’s retribution, U.S. officials seemed to be deliberately
sowing dissension and mistrust in the upper echelons of the Maduro government—as
a means of deepening its dysfunction and pressuring top officials to move
against Maduro before he moved against them.
Ahead of more anti-Maduro demonstrations on Wednesday, Bolton tried to
put a rosy spin on Tuesday’s tumultuous events. Maduro’s support within the
military has cratered and his support among the Venezuelan public is
nonexistent, he argued, forcing the Venezuelan dictator to desperately cling to
Cuba, a cadre of corrupt officials, and paramilitary groups known as
colectivos. Nevertheless, he acknowledged that if the campaign to dethrone
Maduro fails, Venezuela could “sink into
a dictatorship from which there are very few possible alternatives.” The
results of that campaign now—something utterly unsettled, halfway between
kleptocracy and democracy—were on display in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday at
the Venezuelan embassy. Pro-Maduro activists affiliated with Code Pink and
other groups, who had occupied the abandoned building and plastered it with
messages denouncing American imperialism and regime change, confronted
pro-Guaidó protesters across steel barricades and expressionless Secret Service
agents. The dueling chants and posters punctuated the confusion of the present
moment. (The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/05/white-house-venezuela-maduro-failed/588454/)
The following brief is a
synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the
views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas
& Asociados and The Selinger Group.
