Venezuelan Daily Brief

Published in association with The DVA Group and The Selinger Group, the Venezuelan Daily Brief provides bi-weekly summaries of key news items affecting bulk commodities and the general business environment in Venezuela.

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

July 21, 2015


International Trade

 

Cargo that has arrived at Puerto Cabello:

  • 480 tons of personal care products such as shampoo and diapers from Procter & Gamble, Unilever y Kuehne Nagel for their affiliates
  • 433 tons of spare parts for vehicles for FORD Motor e IVECO
  • 198 tons of appliances (washing machines, microwaves and TVs) from MABE y Lilly Associates for their affiliates
  • 5 containers of tires from Pirelli for its branches


 

Cuba is now less dependent on Venezuela

The Cuba Standard Economic Trend Report Index shows Cuba becoming less dependent on Venezuela due to the economic crisis here and lower oil dependence on the part of Cuba. Q2 2015 trade exchanges contracted 5% as compared to Q2 2014, down from 20.4% to 15.4% and the new aperture toward the US could progressively de-link Cuba from Venezuela "without collapsing the Cuban economy". More in Spanish: (El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/)

 

 

Logistics & Transport

 

AVIOR buying 12 planes, adding international routes

Venezuelan airline Avior is purchasing 12 used planes to offer new international routes after foreign carriers have slashed flights due to currency controls. AVIOR President Jorge Anez said that the company was purchasing six planes from Europe's Airbus Group and six from Chicago-based Boeing CO for a total of about US$ 150 million. With its expanded fleet, Avior plans to add routes to Peru, Uruguay and Spain, its first European destination. Airlines have about US$ 3.7 billion from ticket sales trapped in Venezuela because of the country's 12-year-old currency control system, the International Air Transport Association said in June. International carriers have slashed flights to the socialist-run country while they try to repatriate the funds. "As a consequence of the circumstances, there are companies that have freed up space, and we're taking advantage of this opportunity," Anez said. The private Venezuelan airline is using 10-year financing from an international broker to purchase six Airbus A340-300s, four Boeing 737-400s and two Boeing 737-300s, Anez added. The first aircraft is due in September. The carrier, whose hub is in the small Venezuelan city of Barcelona, already flies to nearby Aruba, Brazil, Colombia, Curacao, Panama and the United States. (Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/17/us-venezuela-airlines-idUSKCN0PR1VI20150717)

 

Andean Development Corporations loans Venezuela US$ 300 million for highway development

The Andean Development Corporation (CAF) has loaned Venezuela US$ 300 for highway improvement and services. More in Spanish: (Ultimas Noticias, http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/actualidad/economia/caf-otorga-prestamo-de-300-millones-para-infraestr.aspx#ixzz3gQLxEmMT)

 

 

Oil & Energy

 

Venezuela oil basket falls below US$ 50

Venezuela's weekly oil basket price fell below US$ 50 for the first time since April as oil prices slipped in international markets on economic worries in Europe over Greece's debt crisis, a nuclear deal that would allow Iran to sell more oil, market turmoil in China, in addition to the U.S. market remaining amply supplied. According to figures released by the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, the average price of Venezuelan crude sold by Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA) during the week ending July 17 was US$ 49.89, down US$ 0.81 from the previous week's US$ 50.70. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2392594&CategoryId=10717)

 

Venezuela’s oil export’s ideal price to balance the country’s finances should fluctuate between US$ 100/bbl. and US$ 180/bbl., according to some economists. Yet, others -less optimistic- believe the ideal price should be between US$ 200/bbl. and US$ 250/bbl., considering most of the revenue would be wandered away. The current export price is US$ 50.70/bbl. (Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=44743&idc=2)

 

 

Commodities

 

Venezuela orders producers to divert food to state stores

The food industry association warns that Venezuela's government has ordered companies to distribute food staples to a network of state-run supermarkets amid chronic shortages of basic goods. Federal authorities ordered producers of milk, pasta, oil, rice, sugar and flour to supply between 30- 100% of their products to the state stores, he Food Industry Chamber said. Chamber President Pablo Baraybar warned that the order could cause major supply problems because there are 15 times as many private stores in the country as state-run ones. There are about 113,000 private stores as opposed to some 7,245 public distribution centers. Working-class shoppers often endure hours-long lines at government-run stores to buy staples at steeply reduced prices. (Associated Press, http://finance.yahoo.com/news/venezuela-orders-producers-divert-food-204908089.html; and more in Spanish: Ultimas Noticias, http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/actualidad/economia/cavidea-preve-mas-escasez-en-comercios-por-desvios.aspx#ixzz3gWELGNjT; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/150721/cavidea-objeta-desvio-de-alimentos-a-la-red-publica; El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/)

 

 

Economy & Finance

 

New FEDECAMARAS head again calls for dialogue with government

Francisco Martínez, the newly elected President of Venezuela's main business organization (FEDECÁMARAS) says defending private enterprise and property rights will be their priority, along with seeking to dialogue with the Maduro regime.  "The key factor that would contribute to a rapid recovery of the economy is for the government to give up the idea that business is their enemy...Otherwise the economic crisis cannot be met successfully", he said. Martínez added that he firmly opposes an outdated ideological vision of the situation: "We believe the "economic warfare" speech is a pretext, a media device seeking to share responsibility. But the government knows very well, and we know it, that there are no deliveries, no single truck within the food industry that can move in this country without their authorization...It makes no sense for the government to keep on viewing private enterprise as its main enemy when in truth it contributes to solving many of its problems". More in Spanish: (DINERO, http://www.dinero.com.ve/din/destacados/francisco-mart-nez-extiende-su-mano-al-presidente-maduro#sthash.VWeUZnKs.dpuf)

 

FOREX reserves have reached a new low

FOREX reserves here have dropped to a new low since June 2003 - US$ 15.684 billion, 0.82% lower than the previous week. More in Spanish; (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/150720/que-esta-pasando)

 

Former Chavez minister suggests simplification of FOREX controls here

Rodrigo Cabezas, former Venezuelan minister of finance and former president of the Finance Committee of the National Assembly, has suggested that the government should consider a simplification of the FOREX system in Venezuela. "In strict terms of economic policy, I believe that in the upcoming months or in the upcoming days, a simplification of the foreign exchange system could be implemented. (I do not mean) lifting the foreign exchange controls, for they continue to be a strictly economic measure." He explained that FOREX controls need to be revised for they could have become troubled by bureaucratic hurdles and corruption. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/150720/ex-minister-suggests-simplification-of-venezuela-forex-control)

 

Venezuela at the bottom of the Big Mac index

According to The Economist, Venezuela ranks lowest in its Big Mac Index. It says the average price of the hamburger in the US on July 15th was US$ 4.79 and US$ 0.67 in Venezuela, when using the SIMADI rate which averages 199 VEB to the US dollar. The closest runner ups are Ukraine, India and Russia. More in Spanish: (El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/)

 

If Venezuela defaults, it will be as a result of all the government’s hasty and populist decisions in the face of difficult elections ahead, says analyst Moisés Naím. He explains the reason why FOREX controls are kept in Venezuela is that it has allowed chavista leaders to get immensely wealthy. (Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=44742&idc=2)

 

 

Politics and International Affairs

 

Guyana rejects Venezuela's issuing identity cards in the Essequibo

The government of Guyana announced it opposes Venezuela's plan to issue Venezuelan identity cards to residents of the Essequibo region, a territory that has been in dispute between both States for more than a century. "We will strongly resist any effort to issue identity cards to our people and we will do whatever we need to do as a nation to ensure that we are not diverted from our path to development," said Guyana's Minister of State Joseph Harmon. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/150720/guyana-rejects-issuance-of-venezuelan-identity-cards-in-the-essequibo)

 

Another opposition politician barred in Venezuela

A former Venezuelan state governor, Pablo Perez, says he has been barred from holding public office for 10 years. He is the third opposition politician to be disqualified in the past week. The state prosecutor's office barred a former congresswoman, Maria Corina Machado, and a former mayor, Enzo Scarano for 12 months. Both were expected to run in December's parliamentary elections, but Perez was not running for parliament. It was not clear on what grounds he was barred, but he was given 15 days to appeal against the decision. "Another attack against democratic dissidence", he wrote on social media. The opposition says the government of President Nicolas Maduro is clamping down on the opposition ahead of December's elections, which opinion polls have suggested the government could lose. (BBC News, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-33584205)

 

27 former heads of state from Latin America and Spain demand free and fair elections here

Twenty seven former heads of state from Latin America and Spain have written Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro asking that upcoming parliamentary elections here in December 6th "be free, fair and impartial", and have repeated their "willingness to help as observers so that voting takes place within a climate of confidence and total transparency". Copies of their letter were sent to US President Barack Obama and OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro. The group is headed by Spain's former President José María Aznar, along with Felipe Calderón and Vicente Fox (México); Jorge Quiroga (Bolivia); Sebastián Piñera, Eduardo Frei and Ricardo Lagos (Chile); Andrés Pastrana, Álvaro Uribe and Belisario Betancur (Colombia); Miguel Ángel Rodríguez, Rafael Ángel Calderón, Laura Chinchilla, Óscar Arias and Luis Alberto Monge (Costa Rica); Osvaldo Hurtado, Lucio Gutiérrez, Sixto Durán Ballén and Gustavo Noboa (Ecuador); Alfredo Cristiani and Armando Calderón (El Salvador); Mireya Moscoso, Nicolás Ardito-Barletta and Ricardo Martinelli (Panamá); Juan Carlos Wasmosy (Paraguay); Alejandro Toledo (Perú); and Luis Alberto Lacalle (Uruguay). (Infolatam, http://www.infolatam.com/2015/07/20/expresidentes-iberoamericanos-piden-a-maduro-unas-elecciones-justas-y-libres/)

 

Approaching implosion? 

Evan Ellis, a professor of the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College (SSI) in Carlisle, Pennsylvania, recently published a report entitled "The Approaching Implosion of Venezuela and Strategic Implications for the United States." The paper speaks for Ellis and not for the U.S Army or government. Ellis considers that Venezuela is on the brink of collapse, which would have serious repercussions for Venezuela’s neighboring countries and the region. He claims that "the current regime in Venezuela is locked in an economic and political death spiral from which multiple reinforcing dynamics make it difficult to escape calamity." (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2392592&CategoryId=10717)

 

Diaspora grows

According to Simón Bolívar University’s sociologist and researcher Iván de la Vega, the number of Venezuelans who have left the country rose from 30,000, living in less than 20 countries in 1992, to 1.5 million, currently living in 94 countries out of the 193 member countries in the United Nations, according to formal migration records and census. (Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=44745&idc=1)

 

 
The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.

Friday, July 17, 2015

July 17, 2015


International Trade

 

Cargo that has arrived at Puerto Cabello:

  • 30,000 tons of white corn from Mexico
  • 30,000 tons of white corn from Argentina, both for state agency CASA.
  • 1022 tons of whole powdered milk from Argentina for CASA   
  • 1022 tons of whole powdered milk from Argentina for CASA   
  • Over 477 tons of auto parts in 45 containers from Jacksonville from Ford and Kuehne Nagel for their local affiliates.
  • 110 containers bearing milk, beef, oil and beans from Costa Rica, for CASA
  • Over 995 tons of personal care products, such as shampoo and diapers from Unilever and Procter & Gamble for their local affiliates.
  • Over 264 tons of milk from Nestlé México for their local affiliate.
  • Over 247 tons in 33 containers of auto parts from Brazil and Colombia for Ford.
  • Over 14,000 tons of sodium sulfate from Spain
11 ships are currently offloading at the Port. More in Spanish: (Notitarde; http://www.notitarde.com/La-Costa/Llegaron-mas-de-60-mil-toneladas-de-maiz-al-puerto-de-la-ciudad-2463306/2015/07/16/559521; http://www.notitarde.com/La-Costa/Llegaron-al-puerto-de-Puerto-Cabello-mas-de-dos-mil-toneladas-de-alimentos-2461590/2015/07/15/558336; http://www.notitarde.com/La-Costa/Arribaron-mas-de-mil-toneladas-de-leche-2460408/2015/07/14/555143)

 

Brazil beef exports down

Brazil's Beef Exporters Association says exports dropped 18% and 14% in volume to mostly to "the drop in exports to three important markets: Hong Kong, Russia and Venezuela. (El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/)

 

 

Logistics & Transport

 

Dynamic Airways is now servicing Caracas-Fort Lauderdale

North Carolina based DYNAMIC International Airways will run its inaugural Caracas-Fort Lauderdale, to operate in Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays and Sundays. Sales will be made in bolivars. (Ultimas Noticias, http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/actualidad/economia/dynamic-airways-levanta-vuelo-desde-caracas.aspx#ixzz3g8o64WIU; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/150717/parte-vuelo-inaugural-de-primera-linea-low-cost)

 

 

Commodities

 

Venezuela orders Polar beer workers to lift strike

Venezuela's Labor Ministry has ordered workers to lift a strike at beer maker Polar that had halted two of its breweries and restricted supplies of beer here. Unions close to the government of President Nicolas Maduro in early July shut down the two plants as well as 16 distribution centers as part of demands for better salaries. "The conflict and strike are declared over," said the Labor Ministry's inspectorate in a published official decision. The resolution urges the two sides to enter a process of arbitration that is to begin within the next 48 hours. (Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/15/venezuela-beer-idUSL2N0ZV2RZ20150715)

 

Ten everyday items that now cost more than the monthly minimum wage in Venezuela

As Venezuela's bolivar loses its value at an unprecedented rate, the purchasing power of ordinary citizens is going down with it. While President Nicolas Maduro decreed a 30% increase to the minimum wage in May, the currency has plunged even more -- losing 88% over the past year in the black market where people and businesses go to avoid strict controls on dollar purchases. It now takes 630 bolivars to buy US$ 1 in illegal street markets. That means that Venezuela’s largest bank note of 100 bolivars now fetches less than 16 cents, and that the monthly minimum wage of 7,422 bolivars is worth a little over $11. (Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-15/10-everyday-items-that-now-cost-more-than-the-monthly-minimum-wage-in-venezuela)

 

54% of state run MERCAL stores have closed as did 1,705 food distributors, according to Venezuela’s Nutrition Ministry’s annual report for last year. Mercal has now only 6,725 active stores out of 14,657. Also, prices have experienced sharp increases in this past year. (Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=44719&idc=3)

 

Kraft union announces paralyzed mayonnaise and cream cheese production for lack of supplies. The union says they have stopped activity for the past two months. More in Spanish: (Ultimas Noticias, http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/actualidad/economia/sindicato-de-kraft-anuncia-paro-en-produccion-de-m.aspx#ixzz3g2zZ7wjC; El Mundo, http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/economia/empresas/sindicato-de-kraft-anuncia-paro-en-produccion-de-m.aspx)

 

 

Economy & Finance

 

IMF now estimates Venezuela 2015 inflation will be above 100%

The International Monetary Fund is now estimating that Venezuela will have inflation above 100% this year and that recession will deepen by 7% under economic policies it holds "unsustainable". More in Spanish: (Ultimas Noticias, http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/actualidad/economia/fmi-inflacion-venezolana-en-mas-de-100.aspx#ixzz3g30dxRCK; El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/)

 

Bank of America estimates inflation in Venezuela in June was 7% and annualized inflation is 113.2%. Its forecast for inflation at the end of 2015 is 202.5%. (Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=44721&idc=2

 

Venezuela’s inflation nightmare signals default may come sooner

Venezuela is about to earn another ignominious distinction. Long home to the world’s highest inflation rate, the country now is set to become the site of the 57th hyperinflation event in modern recorded history, says Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University. While the feat may be little more than a formality in a country where Hanke calculates annual cost-of-living increases already run at 772%, it’s the latest sign a debt default may be closer than traders previously thought. With Venezuela’s currency losing 32% of its value in the past month in the black market, according to dolartoday.com, and falling oil prices throttling the cash-starved nation’s biggest revenue source, the government may run out of money to pay its debts by year-end, according to Societe Generale SA. Derivatives traders have ratcheted up the probability of a default within one year to 63%, compared with 33% just two months ago. (Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-15/venezuela-s-772-inflation-means-default-may-come-a-lot-sooner)

 

Analysts believe there could be a default under the Maduro regime

A Bank of America Merrill Lynch poll of 54 economic analysts specialized on Venezuela on what administration here might be more likely to default shows 52% of respondents believe it is the Maduro regime. Another 11% believes in would be another chavista leader, and 16% believe this of a military regime. Only 2% believe an opposition government would take this course. More in Spanish: Spanish: (El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/)

 

Capriles proposes an emergency economic plan

On behalf of the united opposition, Miranda Governor and former Presidential candidate Henrique Capriles has proposed an emergency economic plan "to see things through until December", based on enhancing income by restructuring expenses, including the refinancing of US$ 6.4 billion in debt due in October, in order to pay internal debt with key sectors, such as food, health, education and transportation, and revive the economy. The proposal includes a 50% salary increase, returning expropriated companies and review all international giveawasys. More in Spanish:  (El Universal; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/150715/oposicion-presento-plan-de-emergencia-con-canje-de-deuda; El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/; Infolatam, http://www.infolatam.com/2015/07/15/capriles-propone-ajustar-salarios-negociar-deuda-y-devolver-empresas/)

 

Venezuela’s black-market bolivar tumbles to 1% of official rate

Venezuela’s currency has fallen so much so quickly that a dollar now buys 100 times as many bolivars in the black market as it does at the government-controlled rate. The bolivar fell to a record 630.21 per dollar Tuesday in the illegal street markets where Venezuelans go to skirt limits on foreign-exchange purchases, compared with the official rate of 6.3 per dollar, data compiled by dolartoday.com show. The local currency has plunged 88% in the unofficial market over the past year and 34 percent in just the past month. Inflation is the fastest in the world as President Nicolas Maduro’s administration prints more currency to pay budget expenses. Because of tumbling oil prices, the government gets fewer dollars from its exports and there’s a shortage of greenbacks, pushing Venezuelans to the black market when they can’t obtain government approval to access the legal rates. Venezuela has maintained strict currency controls since 2003. (Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-14/venezuela-s-black-market-bolivar-tumbles-to-1-of-official-rate)

 

FEDECÁMARAS questioned the Venezuelan Central Bank’s (BCV) performance, as well as that of web pages that publish dollar rates without any clear economic bases and whose consequences are “unhealthy to the economy.” Its Chief Jorge Roig accused the absence of official figures from the BCV, as well as its non-transparent allotment of foreign currency of the emergence of pages such as DolarToday. (Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=44720&idc=2; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/150716/fedecamaras-condemns-speculative-practices-with-foreign-exchange)

 

 

Politics and International Affairs

 

Venezuela bans Machado and Scarano from running for parliament

Venezuela has banned a second opposition member, former mayor Vicencio Scarano, from holding public office for a year, meaning he will not be able to run in December's parliamentary election. The measure against Scarano, jailed last year for failing to clear street barricades in his San Diego town during protests against President Nicolas Maduro, followed a similar move this week against another opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado. But Machado has vowed she would run for parliament despite a one-year ban on her holding public office, which she said was a ploy by the government to avoid defeat in December's vote. The comptroller's office has barred Machado, a candidate in the central Miranda state who is a high-profile adversary of the administration of President Nicolas Maduro, on grounds she failed to disclose certain social benefits in her wealth declaration. The socialist government says hard line activists are paying the price for criminal activities, including stoking violence and coup plots. Scoffing at the accusations, Machado accused Maduro and a "complicit" comptroller of sidelining her ahead of the Dec. 6 vote, which polls show the ruling socialists are poised to lose with an economic crisis weighing heavily on the electorate. (Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/17/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKCN0PR00V20150717; http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/15/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKCN0PP2JI20150715; Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=44716&idc=1; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/150716/cabello-a-disqualified-person-cannot-run-for-congress)

 

OAS, Brazilian Senators support María Corina Machado

Both the Organization of American States and the Brazilian Senate came out against the attempt by the Maduro regime to politically disqualify María Corina Machado as candidate for Venezuela's legislature. OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro said the people are the only ones who can disqualify politicians: "There is no political disqualification. A political disqualification or ban cannot be carried out administratively. It must have a different content. The only disqualifications are made by the people. All else is to exacerbate the political situation." Members of the Brazilian Senate also spoke out against the move and called upon the Brazilian government to participate in a dialogue committee that works through UNASUR to make the Venezuelan regime restore effective democracy in Venezuela. More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/150716/senado-de-brasil-y-oea-respaldan-a-maria-corina-machado)

 

Prisoner release not on the table in U.S. talks: Venezuela

Talks to improve diplomatic relations between the United States and Venezuela's socialist government do not include discussion of releasing opposition demonstrators jailed as a result of protests in 2014, says Venezuela's foreign minister. After more than a decade of acrimonious relations, Caracas and Washington have opened a cautious rapprochement by trying to cooperate in areas of mutual interest such as peace negotiations in Colombia and elections in Haiti. But Foreign Minister Delcy Rodriguez said there is no discussion of releasing opposition activists who were arrested for violent and illegal behavior, insisting it would set a dangerous precedent of justifying for "terrorism." (Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/15/us-venezuela-usa-idUSKCN0PP26E20150715; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/150716/fm-rodriguez-asks-us-for-respect-for-venezuelan-institutions)

 

Guyana to seek support in its territorial dispute with Venezuela at the MERCOSUR Summit that begins in Brasilia on Thursday. Guyana’s President David Granger, who is traveling to Brazil, accompanied by his FA Minister and other high officials, plans to present their arguments to win over that support. In the meantime, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is insisting Guyana abide by the 1966 Geneva Accord which calls for the good offices of the United Nations. (Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=44722&idc=1; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/150716/guyana-to-seek-mercosurs-support-in-border-dispute; http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/150717/venezuela-insiste-en-que-guyana-respete-acuerdo-de-ginebra)

 

US Federal Court has subpoenaed Cabello in weapons case

A US Federal Court in Miami has issues a subpoena to National Assembly President Captain Diosdado Cabello to appear on August 10th to testify on a weapons deal allegedly brokered by a Venezuelan businessman in Miami. Aragua State Governor Tareck El Aissami, National Guard Commander General Néstor Luis Reverol, and former Interior Minister General Miguel Rodríguez Torres have also been called to testify in a defamation brought by Gianfranco Rondón against the editor of Doral News and Doral News TV, over reports on alleged arms sales. More in Spanish: (Infolatam, http://www.infolatam.com/2015/07/14/corte-de-eeuu-cita-a-cabello-por-supuesta-compra-de-material-de-defensa/)

 

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

July 14, 2015


International Trade

 

Japan halts trade insurance for Venezuela

Nippon Export and Investment Insurance has said it will phase out the underwriting of new trade insurance for deals with Venezuela beginning today. The decision reflects concern that Venezuela, a major oil producer, may fail to fulfill its payment obligations for Japanese exports due to foreign currency shortages stemming from falling crude oil prices, the government-affiliated agency said. It will be the first time that Japan has suspended trade insurance coverage for economic reasons, instead of deterioration in the local security situation, since it did so for Cuba in 2010. Due to increased risks facing exporter companies, however, trading with Venezuela could experience a downturn after the decision. Japan’s exports to Venezuela, mainly automobiles, came to about ¥34.3 billion in 2014, accounting for 0.05 percent of its overall shipments overseas. (The Japan Times, http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/07/13/business/japan-halt-trade-insurance-venezuela/#.VaUI2_lVikr)

 

Cargo that has arrived at Puerto Cabello:

  • Over 1,500 tons of auto parts in 305 containers from China for state corporation Corporación Z.G.T. C.A.,
  • Over 273 tons of auto parts in 50 vans from China for state corporation Empresa Mixta Socialista de Vehículos.
  • 2,900 kilos of auto parts from China for state agency FONTUR Venezuela.
  • A container of tires from Supreme Overseas for Interglobal Logistics. 
More in Spanish: (Notitarde; http://www.notitarde.com/La-Costa/Llegaron-autopartes-al-puerto-de-Puerto-Cabello/2015/07/13/549991)

 

30,000 tires and an equal number of car batteries from a first lot arrived here from China after a bid called by CENCOEX for transport. The sale of those spare parts will begin in State supply stores nationwide in the next few days. Also, almost 500,000 tires and an equal number of batteries are being imported via the Chinese Fund and by direct purchases by the government. (Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=44644&idc=3)

 

 

Logistics & Transport

 

American will have five weekly flights from New York to Caracas

American Airlines said today it will operate five weekly flights from New York to Caracas from mid-December, more than a year after reducing its travel due to the disagreement with the Venezuelan government over the repatriation of funds. The flights will operate five times a week with Boeing 757 aircraft and are now available for bookings. (USA Today, http://www.usatoday.com/story/todayinthesky/2015/07/13/american-adds-8-routes-to-mexico-caribbean-and-latin-america/30093095/); and more in Spanish: El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/150713/american-volvera-a-tener-cinco-vuelos-semanales-a-caracas-desde-nueva-)

 

 

Oil & Energy

 

Venezuela oil price tumbles 7%

Venezuela's weekly oil basket price fell 7.4% in its fifth straight week of falls as oil prices slipped in international markets on economic worries in Europe over the Greek default, a possible nuclear deal to end sanctions with Iran, market turmoil in China, in addition to the U.S. market remaining amply supplied. According to figures released by the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, the average price of Venezuelan crude sold by Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA) during the week ending July 10 was US$ 50.70, down US$ 4.08 from the previous week's US$ 54.78. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2392061&CategoryId=10717; Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=44638&idc=4)

 

 

Economy & Finance

 

BANCTRUST believes Venezuela will honor debt by selling off assets

BANCTRUST's latest report indicates that Venezuela could honor service on PDVSA bonds by liquidating assets. By the end of October it must meet US$ 3.4 billion in capital and US$ 1.2 billion in interest payments; and the government must pay US$ 1.4 billion in interest on coupons. The firm indicates PDVSA's cash flow deficit was US$ 11.2 billion which has forced it to use international reserves and other sources to pay for imports and service debt. After a US$ 6.25 billion drop in reserves held by the Central Bank over the past few months and "the official and parallel exchange rates are bearing the consequences." More in Spanish: (El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/)

 

Venezuela’s situation may degenerate into economic collapse, political chaos, wide-spread hunger and great turmoil, according to a study written by Evan Ellis, from the US Army’s Strategic Studies Institute (SSI), which warns Nicolás Maduro’s regime, is leading Venezuela towards implosion. To make matters worse, the author suspect’s key elements from the Venezuelan Armed Force are involved in drug-trafficking which they may intervene to restore order. (Veneconomy, http://www.veneconomy.com/site/index.asp?ids=44&idt=44647&idc=1)

 

Venezuela’s largest bill buys 16 US cents after 30% plunge

Venezuela’s largest bank note of 100 bolivars is now worth about 16 U.S. cents on the black market, following a 33 percent plunge in the past month. The currency weakened to 616 per dollar, meaning the greenback fetches 100 times more bolivars in the black market than it does at the primary official rate, according to data compiled by foreign-exchange website dolartoday.com. Venezuela has maintained strict currency controls since 2003, pushing people and businesses to illegal street trading when they can’t obtain government approval to purchase the U.S currency at the legal rates. The bolivar has tumbled 88 percent in the unofficial markets over the past year amid the fastest inflation in the world and as President Nicolas Maduro’s administration prints more currency to pay budget expenses. “The bolivar has gone parabolic in its collapse,” Russ Dallen, the head trader at brokerage Caracas Capital Markets, said Thursday in an e-mailed report. “Two things are happening: less dollars are coming into the economy from the falling price of oil, and the Venezuela central bank is printing money like there is no tomorrow.” (Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-09/venezuela-s-largest-bill-buys-17-u-s-cents-after-30-plunge)

 

Bolivar boats, bills in bras as Venezuela's currency sinks

Origami-like boats made from Venezuela's rapidly depreciating bolivar bills sit on the cash register of a small fruit and vegetable store in Caracas. Cashier Marisol Garcia makes the bolivar boats to illustrate roaring inflation and the currency's tumble on the black market, where even the country's biggest bill is worth just 16 U.S. cents. "People ask: 'What's that?' I say: 'Our reality,'" explains Garcia, 44, as she rapidly counts wads of notes customers hand her for bananas, coconut juice and mangos. "We're sinking." A debilitating recession and a drop in oil prices have harmed the OPEC nation's ability to provide dollars through its complex three-tiered currency control system, pushing up the black market rate at a dizzying speed. The bolivar sank past 600 per U.S. dollar on Thursday, compared with 73 a year ago, according to anti-government website DolarToday. (Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/10/us-venezuela-currency-idUSKCN0PK28Y20150710)

 

Banking Association claims web sites are a source of exchange distortion

Venezuela's Banking Association has issued a statement asking the public to reject using web pages and social media, or any source other than the Central Bank,  as a reference on exchange rates. It claims they are a source of distortion within the economy. More in Spanish: Agencia Venezolana de Noticias; http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/abv-insta-rechazar-falsos-tipos-cambio-p%C3%A1ginas-web-carecer-validez-y-racionalidad; Ultimas Noticias, http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/actualidad/economia/abv-insta-a-rechazar-falsos-tipos-de-cambio-en-pag.aspx; El Mundo, http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/economia/banca/asociacion-bancaria-rechaza-difusion-de-tasa-cambi.aspx)

 

International reserves up US$ 477 million

Venezuela's international reserves, held in the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV), recovered slightly by climbing US$ 477 million at the end of last week. The international reserves of the country were US$ 16.29 billion, up from US$ 15.82 billion. Despite the rebound, Venezuela's reserves are still very low compared to the beginning of the year, when they stood at US$ 22.07 billion. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/150713/venezuelas-international-reserves-up-usd-477-million)

 

BOFA analyst claims Venezuela does not need IMF assistance

According to Francisco Rodríguez, the Venezuelan research director of Bank of America MERRYL LYNCH, Venezuela does not have a serious problem of external liquidity and does not need to seek technical assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He says Venezuela's problem has to do with imbalances in the internal relative prices. "I believe that if economic adjustments are made, there is no need to sell assets, but to issue debt at a reasonable cost allowing for payment of maintenance costs, to carry out the economic stabilization associated with those adjustments." (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/150713/bank-of-america-venezuela-does-not-need-imf-assistance)

 

 

Politics and International Affairs

 

Guyana rejects UN mediation, announces border dispute should go to International Court

Guyanese Foreign Minister Carl Greenidge has told the UN Secretary General that it is not interested in continuing the good offices process which "does not seem to offer any solution to move forward" and "has become a facade", and will move the dispute on to the International Court of Justice. President Nicolás Maduro reacted by calling the Guyanese position a provocation.  (El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/)

 

Pope Francis denies Venezuela mediation

Pope Francis has denied that the Catholic Church is mediating for the regime and opposition to sit down to talks. "There is no mediation", he told media, adding that the Venezuelan Catholic hierarchy is working to "promote some peace" in the nation. More in Spanish: (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/150714/el-papa-nego-que-la-iglesia-este-mediando-entre-gobierno-y-la-oposicio; El Nacional; http://www.el-nacional.com/)

 

Runaway crime

According to criminologists, Venezuela's spiraling crime problem is buttressed by three main factors: the lack of an effective comprehensive policy on citizen security, the prevailing high rate of impunity and the collapse of the justice system. These factors combined have made crime unmanageable, with Venezuela ranking among the most violent countries in the world. Crime continues to rise in the country because the steps taken to address it have failed to attack the root of the problem, says Javier Gorriño, a Venezuelan criminologist and former policeman. In his view, public policies aimed at simultaneously tackling the various factors that have a direct or indirect impact on the increase in violence and criminality in the country have not been implemented. Since 1999, 22 plans for public safety have been announced here, but these efforts have not yielded satisfactory results. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/150711/runaway-crime)

 

US authorities moving forward with sanctions on Venezuelan officials

Despite recent diplomatic contacts, the US Federal Registers has published Treasury Department rules for the enforcement of sanctions applied over the past few months on Venezuelan official for violating human rights. The publication does not name any official not previously identified. More in Spanish: (Infolatam, http://www.infolatam.com/2015/07/12/gobierno-de-obama-avanza-en-el-proceso-de-sanciones-a-venezuela/)

 

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.