May 10, 2019

International Trade

Something is happening with Venezuela’s agriculture

Venezuela’s agricultural exports rose to US$ 322.3 million in 2017 from US$ 47. 4 million in 2013. They increased again in 2018 to US$ 337.1 million. In 2013 that modest level of agricultural exports accounted for 2.32% of exports different from oil and gold. In 2017 that percentage had increased to 12.34%. Over the past year – given the low export levels of commodities different from oil and gold, and an increase in agricultural exports – the latter accounted for 15.26% of total exports. The increase of agricultural exports has taken place despite a national productive collapse with many adverse conditions, the vast majority of which relate to the lack of favorable economic policies, such as a myriad of tighter controls and permits, the lack of inputs, lack of physical infrastructure and disrespect for the agrarian property. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2478291&CategoryId=10717)

 

Oil & Energy

PDVSA ad-hoc board to finance bond payment with uncollected oil revenue

Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA will use uncollected oil revenue to make a bond payment due this month, the board of directors named by interim president leader Juan Guaidó said on Thursday. The opposition-controlled National Assembly on Tuesday approved the US$ 71 million payment on PDVSA’s 2020 bond, as it seeks to avoid losing control of PDVSA’s U.S. refining subsidiary CITGO. The Maduro regime had remained current on that bond even as it defaulted on billions of dollars in other bonds, because the PDVSA 2020 is backed by shares in Citgo, the country’s crown jewel overseas. In a statement, the board said the funds to pay the bond would come from “PDVSA’s overseas accounts receivable,” referring to invoices to customers that had not yet been paid. The board did not specify the value of PDVSA’s accounts receivable abroad but said it would make the payment within the 30-day grace period that began on April 27. If the payment is not made, bondholders could move to seize half the shares in Citgo, which PDVSA posted in collateral for the bond. Guaidó has sought to protect Venezuelan assets abroad from possible seizure by creditors since invoking the country’s constitution to assume an interim presidency in January. He has been recognized as the country’s rightful leader by dozens of countries, including the United States. Maduro retains control of PDVSA within Venezuela, as well as state functions. Any effort by a Maduro-linked entity to make the payment would have been complicated by sanctions the United States placed on PDVSA in January in a bid to squeeze Maduro’s government financially. (Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-bonds/venezuelas-pdvsa-ad-hoc-board-to-finance-bond-payment-with-uncollected-oil-revenue-idUSKCN1SF2KE: Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-08/venezuela-money-at-new-york-fed-may-be-key-to-pdvsa-bond-payment)

 

Firms flock to power auction for troubled Brazil state near Venezuela

Developers have presented more than 150 proposals for power plants ahead of an auction this month to supply electricity to the Brazilian state of Roraima, which has struggled with a rash of blackouts due to reliance on the shaky Venezuelan power grid. Roraima, which is not connected to Brazil’s national grid, has begun depending on expensive emergency fuel-burning plants in the absence of reliable power from its northern neighbor, which has sunk into a profound economic and political crisis. Brazil’s federal government set an auction for May 31 to close long-term contracts with new suppliers using any available source, from oil to wind or solar. Canadian Solar Inc and Brazilian companies Casados Ventos, Eneva SA and Equatorial Energia SA are among the potential bidders, according to industry sources.(Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-power-venezuela/firms-flock-to-power-auction-for-troubled-brazil-state-near-venezuela-idUSKCN1SF2MA)

 

Economy & Finance

Meet Venezuela's jilted creditors

Since December a handful of lawsuits have been brought against Venezuela and its state-owned oil company, PDVSA, over unpaid debts. One of the most recent comes from Siemens-owned DRESSER RAND. The oil-and-gas-equipment manufacturer is seeking US$ 132 million from PDVSA to cover missed interest payments and other fees. That suit followed another by Connecticut-based hedge fund CONTRARIAN Capital Management for US$ 182 million in unpaid promissory notes from PDVSA. Its subsidiary, Red Tree Investments, snapped the securities up from GE Capital at the start of the year. Given the ongoing power struggle at the highest echelons of the Venezuelan state, one firm has been told to wait for now, while the other is likely to face a similar fate. Earlier this week, US District Judge Alison Nathan granted the opposition government led by Juan Guaidó its request for a stay in the ongoing case with Red Tree. The stay is set to last 120 days, meaning no legal proceedings will take place during that time. Other firms have also filed lawsuits, including London-based hedge fund PHARO Management and another hedge fund registered in Panama City, BROKWEL Management. Given the opposition government's recent success in the courts, however, the more litigious of the creditors might want to rethink their strategy. (FT Alphaville: https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2019/05/10/1557486677000/Meet-Venezuela-s-jilted-creditors/)

 

Politics and International Affairs

Arrest of key legislator draws condemnation as Maduro tightens pressure on opposition

European and Latin American countries have condemned the arrest of a top lawmaker who backed calls for a military uprising against Nicolás Maduro. Edgar Zambrano, vice president of the opposition-controlled National Assembly in Venezuela, was leaving his Democratic Action party’s headquarters on Wednesday when he was detained by members of Maduro’s intelligence agency who surrounded his car. Zambrano was arrested by the regime's intelligence services on Wednesday. The SEBIN intelligence police towed Zambrano's car with the 64-year-old lawmaker inside it after he refused to step out outside the headquarters of his Democratic Action Party.  After a half-hour standoff, the SEBIN simply towed his car away while he remained in it. People who witnessed the incident shouted “assassins!” at the armed intelligence agents, who are loyal to the Maduro government. Zambrano tweeted, “Democrats will keep fighting!” as he was being whisked away to prison. The detention of Zambrano – who was among those who joined Guaidó’s fruitless attempt to spark a pre-dawn uprising against Maduro on 30 April – sparked a wave of domestic and international condemnation. “Maduro’s arrest of … Zambrano breaches parliamentary immunity and is a clear violation of the constitution,” tweeted the British foreign secretary, Jeremy Hunt. “Feels like the act of a desperate man on borrowed time.” The US state department slammed Zambrano’s “illegal and inexcusable” detention and warned: “If he is not released immediately, there will be consequences.” US President Donald Trump himself spoke out against the arrest on Twitter and signaled his support to Guaidó. He wrote: “I am returning to Washington, D.C. with Senator Rick Scott and Senator Marco Rubio, discussing the terrible abuses by Maduro. America stands with the GREAT PEOPLE of Venezuela for however long it takes!” The Lima Group, which includes a dozen Latin American countries and Canada, said his arrest was unconstitutional because his parliamentary immunity was illegally lifted. The European Union condemned the arrest of Zambrano, saying it formed part of Maduro's strategy to subjugate the opposition-held legislature. "Zambrano's arrest is a politically motivated action aimed at silencing the National Assembly," said an EU spokesperson. "The EU will continue to react, through its different policy instruments, to further erosion of democratic institutions, the rule of law and human rights." Legislators Américo de Grazia and Mariela Magallanes are both in the Italian embassy, while their colleague Richard Blanco has gone to the Argentine embassy. They are among 10 lawmakers stripped of immunity after a pro-Maduro tribunal said they should be investigated for conspiracy, rebellion and treason. Seven other National Assembly lawmakers remain at risk of being arrested. Maduro has not tried to arrest National Assembly President Juan Guaidó, who invoked the constitution to assume the position of interim president, arguing that Maduro's re-election last year is considered illegitimate. The arrest of Zambrano appears to be part of a carefully calibrated crackdown on the opposition. Diosdado Cabello, a leading political ally of Maduro, suggested that the government is taking a methodical approach in its struggle with the opposition. “We're not in a rush,” Cabello said. On Thursday, General Miguel Rodríguez Torres, a former spy chief who became a government critic, was also transferred by military police to a maximum-security cell at a Caracas military base, his political movement said. Rodríguez Torres was arrested a year ago. In a televised address on Wednesday night, Maduro claimed “victory” over the 30 April plotters and promised to dedicate himself to rescuing Venezuela’s collapsed economy. But other top Chavistas are more cautious and warn there may be further attempts to topple their embattled leader in the days ahead – a view shared by many political observers in Caracas. “There could be a repeat – today, in two hours, in a week, in a fortnight,” Freddy Bernal, a senior Socialist party figure, told state television on Tuesday. Maduro’s regime has so far avoided arresting Guaidó, which would likely provoke a stronger international backlash. But the recent measures suggest the ruling Socialist Party is seeking to isolate him by pursuing key political allies. (PBS: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/arrest-of-venezuelan-opposition-figure-draws-condemnation; BBC News: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-48224790; VOA: https://www.voanews.com/a/venezuela-maduro-tightens-pressure-on-opposition/4910662.html; Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics/venezuelan-lawmakers-seek-refuge-in-embassies-after-crackdown-on-Guaidó-allies-idUSKCN1SF1YK; Local 10: https://www.local10.com/news/venezuela/venezuela-s-maduro-defies-trump-s-warnings-on-Guaidó; VOX: https://www.vox.com/2019/5/9/18540091/venezuela-Guaidó-maduro-zambrano-arrest; Express: https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1124978/venezuela-news-nicolas-maduro-juan-Guaidó-arrest-donald-trump)

 

Venezuela's opposition vow to defy Maduro after key figure detained

Opposition politicians battling to bring down Venezuela’s strongman leader, Nicolás Maduro, have vowed to continue their struggle after the detention of one of their movement’s key figures signaled the start of a major crackdown. Interim president Juan Guaidó on Thursday called for nationwide rallies to protest the arrest of Edgar Zambrano, an opposition figure and vice president of the democratically elected National Assembly. "This Saturday, we return to streets across the country to defend every Venezuelan represented in the National Assembly," Guaidó said, referring to the opposition-held legislature. "It is up to us to remain united and mobilized until we achieve freedom." “We take it as a given that the regime is going to keep escalating its repression,” Guaidó said at a news conference, referring to Zambrano’s arrest. Guaidó accused Maduro’s regime of “kidnapping” Zambrano, who was taken to El Helicoide, a notorious political prison in Venezuela’s capital, Caracas. He portrayed the arrest and targeting of members of the assembly as acts of desperation by a government whose leaders don’t know who to trust. He also called for Venezuelans to take to the streets on Saturday for fresh protests against Maduro on Saturday. “They won’t get us out of the streets,” said Guaidó, whose public appearance in Caracas reflected his belief that Maduro does not have the confidence to arrest him. Juan Andrés Mejía, one of the targeted deputies, told the Guardian the group would not be cowed by Maduro’s “absolutely illegal and unconstitutional” counterattack. “This is not going to work … You are not going to solve Venezuela’s problems by persecuting and imprisoning people. There are just too many of us who want change,” said Mejía, a close Guaidó ally and member of his party, Voluntad Popular (Popular Will).(DW: https://www.dw.com/en/venezuelas-juan-Guaidó-calls-for-return-to-streets/a-48681844; The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/09/venezuela-maduro-Guaidó-crackdown-edgar-zambrano=

 

'We need to know why': Lawmakers wary as Trump aides weigh military options for Venezuela

Talk of possible U.S. military action in Venezuela is prompting bipartisan concern in Congress, where Democrats and Republicans alike cautioned against a rush toward intervention amid escalating rhetoric from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Adviser John Bolton. U.S. intervention would be highly controversial and could spark a political backlash, in the United States and across the hemisphere. "What would our military’s mission be in Venezuela?” said Sen. Todd Young, an Indiana Republican, who sits on the Foreign Relations Committee. “Would the administration push for our military to conduct regime change?” The Marine Corps veteran has called for immediate congressional hearings on the issue and said he wants several “threshold questions” answered by President Donald Trump's top advisers. On Thursday, Trump denied a Washington Post report he is frustrated with Bolton's hardline position on Venezuela and that Bolton was pushing him into a war he didn't want. “John’s very good. He has strong views on things which is okay," Trump told reporters on Thursday. "I’m the one who tempers him ... I have John Bolton and I have people who are a little more dovish than him.” Any move by the Trump administration to send American forces to Venezuela would require congressional authorization, Young and other lawmakers said. That, in turn, would require Pompeo and others to make a compelling case to Congress and the American public that such a move is warranted. And there seems to be little political appetite among lawmakers for approval of such a move. Even some hawkish Republicans who have championed a U.S. military role in Venezuela seemed to shy away from a direct U.S. confrontation with Maduro’s military forces when pressed on the matter. “It’s too early,” Sen. Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, said Tuesday. Military options should be “on the table,” he said on Tuesday, but “we should really be putting a lot of pressure on Cuba right now.”  Other Republicans said U.S. military involvement in Venezuela, despite a strong desire to see Maduro step down, would only play into Maduro's hands.  “The first step…is calling on the administration to explain their thinking for threatening military action in the press,” said Young, who sits on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. “If hostilities are imminent, then we need to know why.” Young said the committee's GOP chairman, Sen. James Risch of Idaho, shares his concerns and has promised to work on his request for hearings, although those might be closed-door sessions. (USA Today: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2019/05/09/lawmakers-not-comfortable-us-troops-venezuela-back-Guaidó-maduro/1137011001/)

 

Pence warns Venezuela’s Maduro harboring Iran-backed terrorists

 “The Iranian regime has been working with Venezuela’s corrupt dictatorship to establish a safe haven for its terrorist proxies,” U.S. Vice President Mike Pence said in a May 7 address to the Council of the Americas. “Hezbollah is working to extend its dangerous network throughout Venezuela, and from there, throughout our hemisphere,” Pence said.  “Venezuela is a failed state,” Pence said. “And as history teaches, failed states know no boundaries. Drug traffickers, criminal gangs, terrorist groups seeking to destabilize the region and profit from the misery of the Venezuelan people every day.” Pence pointed to an Iranian connection in Venezuela by citing last month’s “very public launch of direct air service between Caracas and Teheran by Mahan Air, a blacklisted airline controlled by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps, which President Trump recently designated as a terrorist organization.” The vice president also denounced Maduro confidant and cabinet member Tareck El Aissami, who has been sanctioned by the United States as a drug kingpin and the European Union as a human rights violator. Pence described him as “a drug runner and a money launderer who partners with terrorist networks to bring Iran-backed terrorists into the country.”  “The struggle in Venezuela is the struggle between dictatorship and democracy,” Pence said Tuesday. “Nicolas Maduro is a dictator with no legitimate claim to power, and Nicolas Maduro must go.” (World Tribune: https://www.worldtribune.com/pence-warns-venezuelas-maduro-harboring-iran-backed-terrorists/)

 

Sen. Marco Rubio: China ‘controlling defense cyber operations’ in Venezuela

The Chinese government has actively helped Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro control, censor, and shut down the Internet in his quest to keep the legitimate president of the country, Juan Guaidó, from governing, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) told Breitbart News in an interview Monday. Rubio suggested that Beijing may be distancing itself from Maduro because the tide has shifted so definitively against him in Latin America that the rest of the region may sour on investments with China if it interferes to help him. That does not mean China is not helping Maduro, merely that it cannot afford the bad press, Rubio stated. “The Chinese are very involved. First, they are owed a bunch of money, so they want to get paid,” he explained. “Number two is they are single-handedly helping conduct the Internet control operation. They have basically taken a commercial version of their great Internet firewall and given it to Maduro, and it is a service they are providing him, so they are the ones that are shutting down the Internet and access to social media.” Maduro’s regime regularly cuts nationwide access to the Internet to prevent Guaidó and other opposition leaders from being able to communicate with the masses or organize rallies against him. Guaidó, according to Rubio, has “no access to the media. Any time he tries to speak or communicate on social media, they shut down the Internet. … Literally, every time he holds a rally, they shut down the Internet.” As the Chinese are “single-handedly controlling the defensive cyber operations shutting down the Internet,” they are responsible for silencing Guaidó. Yet being more open about their role could jeopardize investments in other parts of the continent. “The Chinese play a tricky game because on the one hand, they are trying to grow in influence and presence throughout Latin America, so they are seeing all of these countries supporting Guaidó, and they don’t want to … antagonize these countries by being cheerleaders for the Maduro regime,” Rubio noted. (Breitbart: https://www.breitbart.com/latin-america/2019/05/09/marco-rubio-china-controlling-defense-cyber-operations-venezuela/)

 

Is Trump failing in Venezuela?

We finally may have found a peak Donald Trump headline: “A frustrated Trump questions his administration’s Venezuela strategy.” The Washington Post story that goes with it is a classic. It seems that Trump hired John Bolton to be his national security adviser, cleared the path for him to be the main policy maker on foreign affairs, and … is now shocked that Bolton is something of a warmonger and that his schemes don’t produce perfect and painless results overnight. Trump and his aides also aren’t eager to disguise that the president is something of an outsider to his own administration’s policy-making process. Remember: It’s not uncommon for presidents to fight with executive-branch departments and agencies for control over policy. Those bodies have multiple masters. But splits between the president and his own staffers in the White House are far rarer, since such people work directly for, and answer only to, the president himself. Trump has said in recent days that Bolton wants to get him “into a war” — a comment he has made in jest in the past but that now belies his more serious concerns, one senior administration official said. Despite Trump’s grumbling that Bolton had gotten him out on a limb on Venezuela, Bolton’s job is safe, two senior administration officials said, and Trump has told his national security adviser to keep focusing on Venezuela. Trump also spoke approvingly of Russian actions in Venezuela following a lengthy phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday, saying that Putin “is not looking at all to get involved in Venezuela other than he’d like to see something positive happen for Venezuela. And I feel the same way. We want to get some humanitarian aid.” U.S. officials think time is on their side and that Maduro will fall of his own weight. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who has been influential in shaping the administration’s Venezuela response, said Trump and Bolton are on the same page. Rubio, who said he spoke to Trump about Venezuela on Tuesday evening, backs the policy of waiting out Maduro. Rubio said some of the harshest U.S. sanctions are only now having full effect, including sowing dissension among Maduro aides. (Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-05-09/why-donald-trump-is-failing-in-venezuela; The Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-frustrated-trump-questions-his-administrations-venezuela-strategy/2019/05/08/ad51561a-71a7-11e9-9f06-5fc2ee80027a_story.html)

 

US Secretary of State Pompeo to meet Russian President Putin, FM Lavrov on May 14

Mike Pompeo is to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov when he travels to Russia next week, the US State Department said in a statement. The visit comes as the relations between Moscow and Washington are at a new low over accusations of Russian meddling and disagreements over approaches to Venezuela and Iran’s nuclear program. The State Department says they will discuss “the full range of bilateral and multilateral challenges” during a meeting in the southern city of Sochi on May 14. (RT: https://www.rt.com/news/458985-pompeo-travel-russia-date/)

 

Russian FM Lavrov speaks on prospects for US-Russia deal on Venezuela

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has announced that there won’t be any “deals” on Venezuela between Moscow and Washington. "Trump is the one who usually prepares deals", Lavrov remarked. The foreign minister delivered this statement ahead of the upcoming meeting between him and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, which is scheduled to take place on 14 May in Sochi. Earlier this week, Lavrov also dismissed speculations about the possibility of a military intervention in Venezuela, stating that Russia opposes “hostilities anywhere in violation of international law”, and that “the use of force may only be authorized by the UN Security Council, or force may be used in response to aggression against a sovereign state”. (Sputnik News: https://sputniknews.com/world/201905091074854135-russia-us-venezuela-deal/)

 

Russia not planning to send more military specialists to Venezuela

Moscow does not plan to send more Russian military specialists to Venezuela, RIA news agency quoted Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov as saying on Thursday. The Kremlin said in March that Russian military specialists are in Venezuela to service pre-existing contracts for the supply of Russian arms. (Journal Pioneer: https://www.journalpioneer.com/news/world/russia-not-planning-to-send-more-military-specialists-to-venezuela-ria-309646/)

 

Ex-Venezuelan spy chief says Venezuelans should 'build a new state'

The ex-head of Venezuela’s SEBIN intelligence service, who was replaced last week after an attempted military uprising against Nicolas Maduro, urged Venezuelans on Thursday to build a new state and combat corruption.

In his first public appearance since Maduro replaced him on April 30, Manuel Christopher said Venezuelans “deserve a better country,” according to a video of Christopher posted on Twitter by Venezuelan TV outlet NTN24. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-intelligence/ex-venezuelan-spy-chief-says-venezuelans-should-build-a-new-state-idUSKCN1SF2PO)

 

Venezuelan Embassy’s power cut off in tense Washington standoff

A chaotic political standoff with international diplomatic implications began unfolding quietly weeks ago on a leafy side street in the upscale Georgetown neighborhood of Washington, as a group of American activists moved into the five-story Venezuelan Embassy and made themselves at home. With some 100 Venezuelan diplomats still working inside during the day, the activists from Code Pink and other antiwar groups brought their things to spend the night, sleeping on couches to keep the building occupied around the clock. They said they were guests, invited by the regime of Nicolás Maduro, and their mission was to oppose any American military intervention in the troubled nation. The antiwar activists have been alone in the embassy building since late April, when the American visas for the shoestring embassy staff expired, forcing the diplomats to go home. Appointees of Juan Guaidó, the opposition leader recognized by the United States and some 50 other countries as Venezuela’s interim president, had pledged to take over the embassy, a move those now occupying the facility fear could lead to a reciprocal siege of the American Embassy in Venezuela, and an armed conflict. Late last month, local Venezuelans who support Mr. Guaidó learned of the occupation and descended on the building, demanding that the activists, whom they view as unlawful trespassers, get out. In the ensuing days, tense clashes between the occupiers and the Venezuelans, who are camped in tents surrounding the building, have escalated, prompting nine arrests by the Secret Service. Late on Wednesday, the power company shut off electricity to the embassy, thrusting its occupants into darkness. The protesters outside cheered. The extraordinary stalemate has challenged local authorities and the Trump administration, turning the inoperative embassy into a stand-in for the much larger crisis vexing Venezuela, as Mr. Maduro’s supporters maintain control despite of efforts by the opposition and the United States. The State Department has said it considers their presence to be “unauthorized.” Washington police and the Secret Service have set up a barrier separating the pro-Guaidó camp from Maduro sympathizers and other activists across the street. Late on Wednesday, the power company shut off electricity to the embassy, leaving the activists inside in darkness. Only about 15 people remain in the building,  (The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/09/us/venezuela-embassy-protests.html)

 

OP-ED: Can the U.S. help Venezuela militarily without use of force? by Sarah Lee

Lawmakers are debating whether the U.S. should proceed with military action in Venezuela to help end the socialist Maduro regime even as debate about whether the U.S. has a responsibility to protect Venezuela — and if there are ways the military can be utilized without use of force. Luis Almagro, Secretary General of the OAS, detailed the reasons he believes the U.S. and other nations would be justified in entering Venezuela and using force if necessary, under UN guidelines covering the “responsibility to protect” policy, or R2P.  While the Trump administration continues conversations with nations such as Russia and Iran, as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo did this week, some are noting that military intervention doesn’t necessarily have to mean use of force. How would it work? U.S. special forces, next door in Colombia to assist that country’s armed forces, would train the Venezuelan opposition in best practices of nonviolent resistance. This includes teaching tactics of dispersal, evading tear gas, erecting barricades, and maintaining command and control in the face of government repression. But can nonviolent resistance work? A new report by the Joint Special Operations University on Support to Resistance (STR) operations suggests it can. With the Maduro regime arresting interim president Juan Guaidó’s ally, National Assembly Vice President Edgar Zambrano, Wednesday, the U.S. may need to decide quickly on just how to help its neighbor to the south. (Town Hall: https://townhall.com/tipsheet/sarahlee/2019/05/09/can-the-us-help-venezuela-militarily-without-use-of-force-n2546111)

 

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.

 

May 02, 2019

Logistics & Transport

FAA issues Venezuela emergency order

The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) on Tuesday evening issued an order prohibiting “all flight operations in the territory and airspace of Venezuela at altitudes below FL260” until further notice. This order came out due to the “increasing political instability and tensions”. This order is applied to all U.S. air carriers, commercial operators, and “all persons exercising the privileges of an airman certificate issued by the FAA,”. Except for pilots flying foreign-registered aircraft or foreign air carriers operating U.S.-registered aircraft. But pilots can deviate if necessary, in case of an emergency that “requires immediate decision and action for the safety of the flight.”  The FAA also said that any air operators currently in Venezuela, which would include private jets, should depart within 48 hours. Yesterday some airlines like Iberia or DHL cancel their flights to Caracas. The flight of Air France returned to Paris probably because of the political situation. (Sam Chui: https://samchui.com/2019/05/02/faa-issues-venezuela-emergency-order/#.XMrv6Y5KhPY)

 

Politics and International Affairs

US doing everything short of ‘the ultimate’, says Trump as protests continue

The United States is doing everything short of “the ultimate” to resolve Venezuela’s crisis, Donald Trump has vowed, after clashes between protesters and security forces broke out in Caracas following a dramatic but so far fruitless bid to force Nicolás Maduro from power by triggering a massive military rebellion. In an interview with Fox News, the US president, who is Venezuelan interim president Juan Guaidó’s most powerful international backer, vowed to continue supporting him in his battle against Maduro, who Trump called “a tough player”. “We are doing everything we can do, short of, you know, the ultimate,” Trump said, adding: “There are people who would like to have us do the ultimate.” Asked what the options were, Trump said: “Well, some of them I don’t even like to mention to you because they are pretty tough.” “It’s an incredible mess … The place is so bad and so dangerous … so something is going to have to be done,” the US president added in the rambling 10-minute interview. “A lot of things will be going on over the next week and sooner than that. We will see what happens.” David Smilde, a Venezuela expert from the Washington Office on Latin America, said the defection of the head of Venezuela’s intelligence services, SEBIN, showed Maduro’s military support was fragile. Jair Bolsonaro said Brazilian intelligence suggested “there is indeed a fracture which is moving closer and closer to the top of the armed forces. So, it is possible the government will collapse because some of those at the top switch sides,” Bolsonaro added. The US national security adviser, John Bolton, also claimed the Maduro regime was close to falling. “Our judgment is that the overwhelming number of military service members in the country support Juan Guaidó and the opposition,” Bolton said: “It’s just a matter of time before they come over the opposition and some of that could happen today.” (The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/01/venezuela-protests-latest-Guaidó-calls-peaceful-coup-against-maduro; Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-01/trump-s-bet-on-Guaidó-is-tested-as-maduro-remains-in-caracas)

 

Pompeo says military action in Venezuela 'possible'

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reiterated Wednesday that US military action in Venezuela is an option in the wake of this week's violent protests, despite military officials and experts casting doubt on the prudence of such a move. "The President has been crystal clear and incredibly consistent. Military action is possible. If that's what's required, that's what the United States will do," Pompeo said on Fox Business Network. "We're trying to do everything we can to avoid violence. We've asked all the parties involved not to engage in the kind of activity. We'd prefer a peaceful transition of government there, where Maduro leaves and a new election is held. But the President has made clear, if there comes a moment -- and we'll all have to make decisions about when that moment is -- and the President will have to ultimately make that decision. He is prepared to do that if that's what's required." (CNN: https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/01/politics/mike-pompeo-venezuela-military-action/index.html)

 

U.S. military acknowledged exhaustive contingency planning for Venezuela

The Pentagon on Wednesday appeared to downplay any active preparations to directly intervene in Venezuela to topple Nicolás Maduro but acknowledged detailed contingency planning as political turmoil here deepens. Hours after U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the United States was prepared to take military action, if necessary, acting U.S. Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan said the United States had carried out "exhaustive planning" on Venezuela. But he and other officials continued to emphasize diplomatic and economic pressure to help oust Maduro, as opposed to a U.S.-military led regime change. Asked at one point whether the U.S. military had been given instructions to prepare for a conflict in Venezuela, perhaps by prepositioning U.S. troops, Kathryn Wheelbarger, the acting assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, said: "We, of course, always review available options and plan for contingencies. But in this case, we have not been given (the) sort of orders that you're discussing, no," Wheelbarger told the House Armed Services Committee. So far, the U.S. military has been largely a spectator amid the unfolding U.S. foreign policy decisions on Venezuela, although it offered small contributions, like helping shuttle humanitarian aid to Colombia for further transport to Venezuela. It has also ramped up its intelligence collection and intelligence sharing with allies, like Colombia, while planning for a possible non-combatant evacuation of Americans from Venezuela, should the need arise. Such planning is standard in any crisis of Venezuela's magnitude. The top uniformed U.S. military officer, Marine General Joseph Dunford, said he was focused on intelligence gathering and being prepared to respond, if Trump sought greater involvement by the Pentagon. But he stressed that the military should act in a way that deepens its partnerships in Latin America -- where the prospect of U.S. military intervention is deeply unpopular. "I think it really is very, very important that we work with others in the region to solve this problem," Dunford said. U.S. Navy Admiral Craig Faller, commander of U.S. Southern Command, which oversees U.S. forces in Latin America, said a big focus for the United States and its partners in the region would be helping to restore vital Venezuelan economic infrastructure after Maduro's exit -- something he called "Day Now" planning. "We call it 'Day Now' because there is going to be a day when the legitimate government takes over, and it's going to come when we least expect it -- and it could be right now," Faller said. When asked if he saw a role for the U.S. military in overthrowing Maduro's government, Faller said: "Our leadership's been clear: It has to be, should be, primarily a democratic transition." Still, he said Southern Command was ready to act if called upon for any scenario. "We're on the balls of our feet," he said. Despite the normally apolitical role of members of the military, Faller voiced a direct -- and political -- message to the Venezuelan armed forces, calling on them "to do the right thing." "A transition to legitimate democracy is underway, and I have a message for the professionals in the Venezuelan military and security forces -- the brutal dictatorship of Maduro has led to this man-made crisis. Cuba and Russia have invaded your country and disgraced your sovereignty. You have a chance to do the right thing and alleviate the suffering of your people and your families -- those you have sworn an oath to protect," he said. In a sign the crisis was grabbing the full attention of Trump's national security leaders, Shanahan canceled a planned trip to Europe on Wednesday, in part to help coordinate with the White House National Security Council and State Department on Venezuela. (The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2019/05/01/world/americas/01reuters-venezuela-politics-usa-military.html; Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-usa-military/u-s-military-not-given-orders-to-prepare-for-war-in-venezuela-idUSKCN1S744M; https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-usa-planning/u-s-has-done-exhaustive-planning-on-venezuela-scenarios-shanahan-idUSKCN1S74CP)

 

Russia hits back at U.S. over Venezuela, warns of ‘most serious consequences’

Russia has hit back at repeated warnings from the United States over Moscow's alleged role in Venezuela, where Washington has endorsed an attempt to oust the country's socialist regime. As the three-month standoff between Nicolás Maduro and opposition-controlled National Assembly speaker Juan Guaidó grew violent Tuesday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo alleged that the Venezuelan leader "had an airplane on the tarmac, he was ready to leave" to Cuba, but "the Russians indicated he should stay." Russia dismissed this narrative Wednesday, with the two country's top diplomats reportedly having it out during a telephone call. "The focus was on the situation in Venezuela, where yesterday the opposition, with the clear support of the United States, attempted to seize power. It was stressed on the Russian side that Washington’s interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign state and the threat against its leadership is a gross violation of international law," the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a readout of the talk between Pompeo and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. "It was indicated that the continuation of aggressive steps would be fraught with the most serious consequences," the statement added. The State Department later released its own readout of the call, during which Pompeo "stressed that the intervention by Russia and Cuba is destabilizing for Venezuela and for the U.S.-Russia bilateral relationship," according to spokesperson Morgan Ortagus. "The Secretary noted the Russian Foreign Ministry’s April 30 statement calling for the renunciation of violence and support for Venezuela’s return to stability and prosperity," the statement read. "The Secretary urged Russia to cease support for Nicolas Maduro and join other nations, including the overwhelming majority of countries in the Western Hemisphere, who seek a better future for the Venezuelan people." (Newsweek: https://www.newsweek.com/russia-us-venezuela-conflict-warns-serious-consequences-1411720; Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-usa/tension-grows-between-u-s-and-russia-over-venezuela-standoff-idUSKCN1S73VN; https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-usa-russia/pompeo-urges-end-to-russian-involvement-in-venezuela-state-department-idUSKCN1S74G8; https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-russia-usa/russia-warns-u-s-over-aggressive-moves-in-venezuela-idUSKCN1S74BF; https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-russia/russia-denies-u-s-claim-it-told-venezuelas-maduro-not-to-flee-idUSKCN1S73K3)

 

Thousands of Venezuelans have taken to the streets in Caracas heeding Juan Guaidó ‘s call

As tens of thousands of Venezuelan returned to the streets on Wednesday, Juan Guaidó, the young opposition leader who led that attempted mutiny on Tuesday morning, told demonstrators in the capital, Caracas, they needed to intensify their “peaceful rebellion” against Maduro. “Every day there will be acts of protest until we achieve our liberty,” Guaidó announced. “They thought they could suffocate our protest yesterday and they failed. We will remain in the streets until Venezuela is free.” The country’s political crisis returned to a protracted standoff punctuated by violence on Wednesday, with the government and protesters seeking to project strength at rival May Day rallies. “There’s no turning back,” Juan Guaidó, the opposition leader, told supporters in Caracas, the capital, where tear gas fired by riot police officers shrouded some protest sites. “Despite the repression, we’re still here.” There were reports late in the day that armed pro-government forces used live fire against some protesters in Altamira, part of a Caracas area where the opposition is strong. A 27-year-old woman died from a gunshot wound to the head while protesting there. Thousands of Mr. Guaidó’s supporters in Caracas and elsewhere heeded his call to demonstrate, although not enough to meet his promise to stage “the biggest march in history.” Still, his ability to remain at large and to rally supporters — after his attempt to recruit the military to his side sputtered on Tuesday — underlined the weaknesses in the regime of his opponent, Nicolás Maduro. Mr. Guaidó called on Venezuelan workers to begin “rolling strikes” starting Thursday, building to a general strike later in the month. It was unclear how much pressure that would apply since most companies already operate at minimum capacity after five years of recession. Momentum on the street has flagged. Protest fatigue and constant power and water outages have sapped morale. Attempts by Mr. Guaidó’s supporters to gather at rallying points in Caracas’s downtown Wednesday were swiftly repressed by police officers and national guard members with tear gas, forcing them to fall back to the middle-class opposition stronghold of Chacao in the east of the capital. But by late afternoon, many of the protesters in the capital Caracas had drifted home. National Guards fired tear gas at a hardcore of demonstrators who remained. Chacao’s health authorities said 39 protesters were injured on Wednesday. The defense minister, General Vladimir Padrino, said on Twitter that eight soldiers had been wounded by firearms while “confronting coup violence.” He added, “How long will the impunity last? Across town in central Caracas, thousands of Maduro’s supporters dressed in red marched along the main highway toward the presidential palace. Most appeared to be retirees or public sector workers. Many were brought in from across the country by public buses that stretched for miles on the side of the highway, underlining the government’s desire to portray strength and tenacity after the failed uprising. (The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/01/world/americas/venezuela-protests-Guaidó-maduro.html; Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics/venezuelan-protests-peter-out-as-maduro-hangs-on-u-s-and-russia-squabble-idUSKCN1S734M; Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-05-01/venezuela-s-Guaidó-takes-a-big-risk-for-a-small-win; https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-30/Guaidó-s-high-risk-gamble-flops-as-maduro-keeps-grip-on-military; The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/01/venezuela-protests-latest-Guaidó-calls-peaceful-coup-against-maduro)

 

There weren't enough military defectors for Guaidó to declare a victory yesterday, he admits

Speaking to a crowd in Caracas, Juan Guaidó admitted that he did not have enough military defectors on his side to declare victory during yesterday's unrest. "We have to acknowledge that yesterday there weren't enough [pro-Guaidó military defectors]," the National Assembly President and opposition leader said. He added: "We have to insist that all the armed forces [show up] together. We are not asking for a confrontation. We are not asking for a confrontation among brothers, it’s the opposite. We just want them to be on the side of the people." (CNN: https://www.cnn.com/americas/live-news/venezuela-crisis-live-may-day-protests-intl/index.html)

 

Head of Venezuela's secret police turns his back on Nicolas Maduro

The head of Venezuela's secret police has broken ranks with Nicolas Maduro as the country braces for a second day violence following the turmoil surrounding a military uprising. In a possible sign that Maduro's inner circle could be fracturing, the head of Venezuela's secret police wrote a letter on Tuesday breaking ranks with the embattled leader.  In a letter directed to the Venezuelan people, Manuel Ricardo Cristopher Figuera - the head of Venezuela's feared SEBIN intelligence agency - said he had always been loyal to Maduro but now it is time to 'rebuild the country'. He said corruption has become so rampant that 'many high-ranking public servants practice it like a sport'. 'The hour has arrived for us to look for other ways of doing politics,' Figuera wrote. The authenticity of the letter circulating on social media was confirmed by a senior U.S. official. (The Daily Mail: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6979389/Head-Venezuelas-secret-police-turns-Nicolas-Maduro.html)

 

US: Venezuelan officials who were negotiating Maduro exit have gone dark

US Special Representative for Venezuela Elliott Abrams said on Wednesday that top officials with the Venezuelan government who allegedly were negotiating with the opposition for Nicolas Maduro to step down have “turned off their cellphones.” “I’ve run across the fact that many of them have turned off their cellphones,” Abrams said in an interview with EFE. The US government said on Tuesday that three key officials with the Maduro government – Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez, Supreme Court of Justice president Maikel Moreno and Presidential Honor Guard commander Ivan Rafael Hernandez Dala – were negotiating with the opposition to break with Maduro and back Juan Guaidó, who has been recognized as the country’s interim president by 54 nations.
When asked if Padrino Lopez, Moreno and Hernandez Dala are the ones who have turned off their cellphones, Abrams said only that “I’m referring to many people at top levels of the Venezuelan government.” (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2478022&CategoryId=10717)

 

Maduro vows retaliation for “coup attempt” as he denies attempts to flee to Cuba

Nicolas Maduro declared victory in a defiant televised address late on Tuesday over the attempted uprising, vowing retaliation against those who plotted a "coup" to remove him from office. "This will not go unpunished," Maduro said in his first address, broadcast on television and the radio, since the pre-dawn attempt to remove him by a group of soldiers led by opposition leader and interim president Juan Guaidó. Maduro also used his speech to deny claims by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that he had intended to flee to Cuba amid a military uprising against him. "Mike Pompeo said that... Maduro had a plane ready to take him to Cuba, but the Russians prevented him from leaving the country. Mister Pompeo, please, this really is a joke," Maduro said. Maduro insisted he had seen off Tuesday’s attempt to topple him with the backing of “loyal and obedient” members of Venezuela’s Bolivarian armed forces. Flanked by Venezuela’s military and political elite, Maduro blamed Venezuela’s “coup-mongering far right” and Donald Trump’s deranged imperialist “gang” for what he called Tuesday’s attempted coup. “I truly believe … that the United States of America has never had a government as deranged as this one,” On Tuesday night at least 25 Venezuelan troops sought asylum in Brazil's embassy in Caracas, a senior Brazilian official said. A spokesman for Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro said soldiers and lieutenants were among the applicants. The petitions for asylum came as Bolsonaro threw his support behind Venezuelans "enslaved by a dictator" "Brazil is on the side of the people of Venezuela, President Juan Guaidó and the freedom of Venezuelans," Bolsonaro said in a series of tweets. (The Telegraph: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/04/30/venezuela-latestviolent-clashes-opposition-leader-juan-Guaidó/; The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/01/venezuela-protests-latest-Guaidó-calls-peaceful-coup-against-maduro)

 

Opposition leader Lopez and family in Spain’s Venezuela Embassy

Venezuelan opposition figure Leopoldo Lopez, his wife Lilian Tintori and their 15-month-old daughter are currently in the Spanish embassy in Caracas just a day after the activist was released from house arrest in a dramatic operation orchestrated by interim President Juan Guaidó and a group of defecting soldiers, Spain’s foreign ministry said on Wednesday. Lopez, who had been serving an almost 14-year sentence under house arrest for charges linked to anti-regime protests back in 2014, was released Tuesday morning. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2478002&CategoryId=10717)

 

U.N. rights office concerned by use of force in Venezuela

The United Nations human rights office said on Wednesday it was “extremely worried” by reports of excessive use of force against demonstrators across Venezuela. “In light of the mass protests planned for today, we call on all sides to show maximum restraint and for the authorities to respect the right to peaceful assembly. We also warn against the use of language inciting people to violence,” it said in a statement. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-un/u-n-rights-office-concerned-by-use-of-force-in-venezuela-idUSKCN1S74DA)

 

Venezuela social media blackout lifted minutes before President Maduro's speech

The Venezuelan regime is clamping down on social media as Nicolas Maduro battles Juan Guaidó's calls for a popular uprising. Network data collected by internet observatory Netblocks shows the country's state-run internet provider restricted access to social media on Tuesday. The restrictions were imposed on Twitter, Periscope, YouTube, Facebook and several other services shortly after Guaidó announced what he called the final phase of Operation Freedom. Unrestricted internet access was finally restored just 20 minutes before a live-streamed speech by Maduro in which he accused the US and Colombia of backing opponents of his regime. According to Netblocks, the network data is consistent with state censorship events during other public appearances by Mr. Guaidó, as well as during "a politically significant session of the Venezuelan National Assembly" which was live-streamed. Access to each of the targeted services was intermittently available, as it was in previous filtering events, but Netblocks stated the extent of Tuesday's blocks was unprecedented in Venezuela. The online crackdown has been accompanied by a physical response to demonstrations in the streets. (SKY News: https://news.sky.com/story/venezuela-social-media-blackout-lifted-minutes-before-president-maduros-speech-11708427)

 

Brazil backs Venezuela uprising, but says it won't intervene militarily

Brazil’s government threw its support behind Venezuelan interim president Juan Guaidó’s push to oust Nicolas Maduro on Tuesday and called on other nations to do the same. Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro, a former army officer, wrote on his official Twitter account that the people of Venezuela are “enslaved by a dictator” and that he supports “freedom for our sister nation to finally become a true democracy.” His security adviser, retired general Augusto Heleno, said he was shocked by an image of an armored car of Venezuela’s National Guard apparently running over protesters. But he said the situation was not clear, Guaidó’s support among the military appeared to be “weak” and it was uncertain whether military officers were abandoning Maduro. Presidential spokesman General Otavio Rego Barros told reporters Brazil had completely ruled out intervening militarily in Venezuela and was not planning to allow any other country to use its territory for any potential intervention in its neighbor. Earlier, Brazil’s foreign Minister Ernesto Araujo said it was “positive” to see movement of some Venezuelan military toward recognizing Guaidó as the legitimate president of their country. “Brazil supports the democratic transition process and hopes the Venezuelan military will be part of that,” Araujo said. (Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-brazil/brazil-backs-venezuela-uprising-but-says-it-wont-intervene-militarily-idUSKCN1S61MK)

 

Number of Venezuelans fleeing to Brazil surges during attempt to oust Maduro

Close to triple the usual number of Venezuelans fled to Brazil on Tuesday, when Venezuelan interim president¿ Juan Guaidó led an attempt to oust socialist leader Nicolas Maduro from power, according to Brazilian government data released on Wednesday. Some 850 Venezuelans came to Brazil on Tuesday by foot, the government said, compared with the usual range of between 250 and 300. The migrants arrived in Brazil’s Roraima state, one of the country’s most isolated and poor, which borders Venezuela and has seen thousands of migrants arrive in recent months. A wider exodus has pushed millions of Venezuelans largely to Colombia and Peru. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-brazil/number-of-venezuelans-fleeing-to-brazil-surges-during-attempt-to-oust-maduro-idUSKCN1S740W)

 

“We must protect our citizens first”: Peru expels 40 Venezuelans

Peru has deported more than 40 Venezuelan migrants for concealing they had criminal records or for residing illegally in the country, Interior Minister Carlos Moran said in the wake of first large expulsion since hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans fled to Peru to escape their country's economic crisis. The migrants were arrested in different districts of the capital, Lima, in a police operation early on Monday, and were put on a military plane headed to Venezuela hours later. Moran said most of the Venezuelans expelled had provided false sworn declarations in their residency applications that they had no criminal record, a violation of Peru's migration law punishable with deportation. Others were deported for residing illegally in the Andean country, Moran added, without providing details. Peru, which has a population of 32 million, has the second-largest population of Venezuelan migrants after Colombia. Most of the 700,000 Venezuelans in Peru arrived in the past year. "As a country, we have fraternally welcomed thousands of Venezuelans who have come to seek a better future," Moran told reporters. "But as a government, we must protect our citizens first, and these people who have entered lying, falsifying information, had criminal records, and that's a threat." Peru created temporary residency permits for Venezuelans in early 2017, allowing them to work and receive health and education services. But last year, the government of President Martin Vizcarra stopped allowing new applicants into the program, which has granted permits to more than 330,000 Venezuelans and is processing requests for 160,000 others. 67% of Peruvians now view Venezuelan immigration as negative, compared with 43% in February 2018, according to an Ipsos poll published in daily El Comercio on Monday. Crime was listed as the top concern, followed by fears about jobs. (Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/04/protect-citizens-peru-expels-venezuelans-190430052927726.html)

 

Cubans protest U.S. sanctions as Trump raises pressure on Venezuela

Millions of Cubans took to the streets on Wednesday in protest over new sanctions imposed on the Caribbean island by the Trump administration and U.S. efforts to topple the government of socialist ally Venezuela. “We will give a strong, firm and revolutionary response to the statements loaded with threats, provocations, lies and slander of the Yankee empire,” tweeted Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel as dawn broke over Havana. The annual marches across the Communist-run country, marking International Workers Day, provided the first opportunity to publicly protest a U.S. offensive against socialism in the region declared by U.S. national security advisor John Bolton late last year. That was followed by a series of new sanctions against Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua and the appearance of shortages of basic goods on the island. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cuba-protests-usa/cubans-protest-u-s-sanctions-as-trump-raises-pressure-on-venezuela-idUSKCN1S742Q)

 

OP-ED: How an elaborate plan to topple Venezuela’s President went wrong, by Uri Friedman

In the effort to topple Nicolás Maduro, Colombia’s ambassador to the United States once told me, the military men propping up Venezuela’s authoritarian president are like chess pieces. If they defect from the regime, “you lose that chess piece,” Francisco Santos explained. “They work better from the inside.” As Tuesday, April 30, began, the United States and its allies thought they finally had checkmate, after months of building up the opposition leader Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s legitimate president and recruiting more than 50 nations to their cause. By the end of the day, the board had been flipped upside down, pieces were scattered everywhere, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was on CNN blaming the kingmakers, Russia and Cuba, for sabotaging the game. Donald Trump’s administration has at the same time continued issuing warnings to Maduro and his associates, though it’s unclear what effect they will have or whether they will save Guaidó. (In the latest sign that major U.S. actions could still be in the offing, acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan has canceled a trip to Europe in order to coordinate with the National Security Council and State Department on Venezuela.) Maduro’s airplane was on the tarmac and he was prepared to depart for Cuba on Tuesday morning, but “the Russians indicated he should stay,” the U.S. secretary of state revealed. (The Russians have disputed this account.) The Cubans, he added, are “protecting this thug” and are “at the center of this malfeasance.” Donald Trump, who earlier in the day had cheered on the pro-democracy demonstrators on Twitter, returned to the site to threaten a “complete embargo” and “highest-level sanctions” on Cuba if “Cuban Troops and Militia do not immediately CEASE military and other operations” in Venezuela. As Operation Freedom went sideways, U.S. officials began divulging details of an effort that had gone spectacularly wrong. Bolton named three top Venezuelan officials—Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino; Supreme Court Chief Justice Maikel Moreno; and the commander of the presidential guard, Iván Rafael Hernández Dala—who he claimed had been engaged in lengthy talks with the Venezuelan opposition and had “all agreed that Maduro had to go,” only to renege this week (at least so far) on their commitments to facilitate a democratic political transition. In a tweet addressed to the three men, Bolton suggested that the terms of the deal had been to help remove Maduro from power in exchange for amnesty from Guaidó and the lifting of U.S. sanctions against them. Wednesday, Bolton outlined how the plan was supposed to work. The senior officials and Guaidó would sign documents memorializing their agreement. The Venezuelan Supreme Court would declare Maduro’s Constituent Assembly illegitimate and thereby legitimize the Guaidó-led National Assembly. Military leaders like Padrino would then have the political and legal cover to act against Maduro. Yet “for reasons that are still not clear, that didn’t go forward yesterday,” Bolton admitted. Another senior official, the head of Venezuela’s intelligence service, did in fact split with Maduro, according to U.S. officials. Bolton offered one theory for why the plan never came to fruition: The Cuban government had prevailed on the three officials to stick with their boss. Fear of the tens of thousands of Cuban security forces in the country, he argued, is keeping military officials in check. On television and Twitter on Tuesday, the defense minister repeatedly backed Maduro. But by ratting out Padrino and the other officials, and thus exposing them to Maduro’s retribution, U.S. officials seemed to be deliberately sowing dissension and mistrust in the upper echelons of the Maduro government—as a means of deepening its dysfunction and pressuring top officials to move against Maduro before he moved against them.  Ahead of more anti-Maduro demonstrations on Wednesday, Bolton tried to put a rosy spin on Tuesday’s tumultuous events. Maduro’s support within the military has cratered and his support among the Venezuelan public is nonexistent, he argued, forcing the Venezuelan dictator to desperately cling to Cuba, a cadre of corrupt officials, and paramilitary groups known as colectivos. Nevertheless, he acknowledged that if the campaign to dethrone Maduro fails, Venezuela could “sink into a dictatorship from which there are very few possible alternatives.” The results of that campaign now—something utterly unsettled, halfway between kleptocracy and democracy—were on display in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday at the Venezuelan embassy. Pro-Maduro activists affiliated with Code Pink and other groups, who had occupied the abandoned building and plastered it with messages denouncing American imperialism and regime change, confronted pro-Guaidó protesters across steel barricades and expressionless Secret Service agents. The dueling chants and posters punctuated the confusion of the present moment. (The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/05/white-house-venezuela-maduro-failed/588454/)

 

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.