Venezuelan Daily Brief

Published in association with The DVA Group and The Selinger Group, the Venezuelan Daily Brief provides bi-weekly summaries of key news items affecting bulk commodities and the general business environment in Venezuela.

Tuesday, August 16, 2016

August 16, 2016


International Trade

Cargo arrivals:

The Puerto Cabello Port authority reports:

  • 90,000 tons of white corn on three ships: “Atlantic Yucatán” “Coresky Ol” and “Orchard Búnker
  • 63,000 tons of baking wheat on the “Strategic Sinergy” and the “Fatih
  • 32,000 tons of yellow corn on the “Western London
  • 35.347 tons of yellow corn and soy cakes on the “Dolor Vita
  • 30,000 tons of raw sugar on the “Miss Simona
  • 29,658 tons of general cargo on the “Dodo” and
  • 29,910 tons of general cargo on the “Clipper Brilliance
  • 48,000 tons of wheat, unspecified.

It also reports that seven more ships are at bay bearing 213,000,000 tons of staples, including sugar, white and yellow corn, durum wheat and baking wheat.


 

Partial and gradual border opening underway with Colombia

President Nicolas Maduro and his Colombian counterpart Juan Manuel Santos have met and agreed to gradually reopen the bilateral border, shut down by a Maduro decree one year ago. During a first stage – underway - the border will be open to daytime pedestrian crossing at five designated points. They announced that they had agreed to the sale of Venezuelan fuel in Colombian service stations, and said a bilateral group will seek payment forms for trade between both nations. Vehicle transportation is to be reopened gradually. During this past weekend over 90,000 Venezuelans crossed on foot into Colombia seeking basic supplies, and purchases have been limited to small amounts for personal consumption only. Around 6,000 military personnel were deployed to guard the border crossing, and Colombia has implemented a border crossing permit. Tires and automotive spare parts have been banned until formal trade channels are established; and talks will continue to determine with goods are to be considered basic for Venezuelans. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2418673&CategoryId=10717; and more in Spanish: (Noticiero Venevision: http://www.noticierovenevision.net/nacionales/2016/agosto/11/165571=presidentes-maduro-y-santos-acuerdan-la-reapertura-; http://www.noticierovenevision.net/nacionales/2016/agosto/14/165841=mas-de-90-mil-personas-cruzaron-la-frontera-colombo-venezolana-en-busca-de-productos-basicos; http://www.noticierovenevision.net/economia/2016/agosto/15/165980=primera-etapa-de-reapertura-de-la-frontera-solo-permitira-paso-para-compras-minimas; Notitarde, http://www.notitarde.com/Pacto-fronterizo-no-cumple-con-las-expectativas/Economia/2016/08/13/1016714/)

 

Uruguay claims MERCOSUR presidency faces "legal vacuum", while Brazil analyzes Venezuela’s membership

Uruguayan Foreign Minister Rodolfo Nin Novoa said that no joint leadership of the Common Market of the South (Mercosur) is provided for under any regulation, adding that Venezuela would not accept such move. “(A joint leadership) is not provided for, and if so, we need consensus anyway,” he said, stressing that “there is no pre-requisite to take over (the bloc’s presidency). There is a legal vacuum.” Earlier, his Brazilian counterpart José Serra suggested that Mercosur be led by an “informal council of ambassadors” which would be effective until December, when Argentina must hold the presidency, in order to stop the crisis over the rotating presidency transfer. At the same time, Brazil’s Foreign Minister José Serra says MERCOSUR will now decide which “legal steps” can be applied to Venezuela for unilaterally failing to comply with community entry requisites. Venezuela’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying charges of non-compliance are a contrivance to exclude this nation from MERCOSUR, and claiming that Venezuela has complied more fully than other nations. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/uruguay-claims-mercosur-presidency-faces-legal-vacuum_431884); and more in Spanish: (El Mundo, http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/actualidad/politica/venezuela-niega-haber-incumplido-protocolo-de-adhe.aspx#ixzz4HUcXU2pS; Notitarde, http://www.notitarde.com/Venezuela-no-incumple-protocolo-de-Mercosur/Economia/2016/08/16/1017280/; Noticiero Venevision: http://www.noticierovenevision.net/economia/2016/agosto/13/165746=brasil-expreso-que-mercosur-decidira-

 

Trade Minister claims over 500 companies have been driven to foreign markets

Foreign Trade and Investment Minister Jesús Faría says the Venezuelan government has guided 500 companies from different production sectors towards foreign markets. He said his ministry has been able to cut 60% of red tape for exports, and announced that the mattress manufacturer LATINFLEX expects to carry out its first export to Curacao and later to Aruba, Ecuador and Cuba. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/over-500-companies-driven-foreign-market-venezuela_431541)

 

 

Oil & Energy

Lack of investment, payment delays hamper Venezuela oil output

Venezuela is on track to suffer its steepest annual oil output drop in 14 years as it suffers the effects of an economic crisis and years of under investment and mismanagement. The state-run oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), is struggling to stem a production decline that has accelerated this year as a result of payment delays to suppliers, lack of investment in equipment, and poor planning in the country's vast oil fields. In the 12 months to June, Venezuela's crude output fell 9% to 2.36 million barrels per day (bpd), while the Organization of Petroleum Exploration Countries (OPEC) has boosted its output by 4%, according to the group's official figures. Venezuela's oil minister and PDVSA president, Eulogio Del Pino, last month confirmed a 220,000-barrel-per-day production decline -- around 8% -- so far this year compared with 2015. PDVSA's crude exports, which account for 94% of the country's hard currency income, fell to 1.19 million bpd in July, excluding independent sales made by its joint ventures. An increase in equipment theft, maintenance delays, low salaries, and what they called a sense of "abandonment" of some oilfields are continuing to hit production. Del Pino told local media last month that power outages and limited upgrading capacity to convert Venezuela's extra heavy oil into exportable crude has hampered production. It has forced PDVSA to import some 95,000 bpd of heavy naphtha and light crude to dilute its oil. These problems, occurring while oil services providers reduce operations in Venezuela, have analysts forecasting that production will not recover in the second half of the year, falling instead to its lowest level since a strike that brought output down to an average of 2.56 million bpd in 2003. Venezuela's active rig count fell to 49 in July according to Baker Hughes, the lowest since the end of 2011. U.S.-based oil servicing giant Schlumberger noted a "significant reduction of operations" in Venezuela in its most recent earning release and Halliburton said it is operating on fewer active rigs in Latin America, including Venezuela. PDVSA has said there are ongoing talks to solve payment issues with many companies, including those. PDVSA has faced problems maintaining output levels at areas that need secondary recovery techniques such as water, gas and vapor injections into reservoirs. "PDVSA, who has no money leftover at all, now needs even more investment in exploration and production than in the previous decade to see its output to revive. At this price level, that is not going to happen," said a former PDVSA executive. (Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-pdvsa-output-idUSKCN10Q0D6)

 

Venezuela oil price rises for first time in 7 weeks

The price Venezuela receives for its mix of medium and heavy oil rose for the first time in 7 weeks as falling WTI prices bounced off a US$ 40 base.  According to figures released by the Ministry of Petroleum and Mining, the average price of Venezuelan crude sold by Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA) during the week ending August 12 was US$ 35.54, up US$ 2.18 from the previous week's US$ 33.56.  According to Venezuelan government figures, the average price in 2016 for Venezuela's mix of heavy and medium crude is now US$ 32.18 for the year to date. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2418651&CategoryId=10717; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/venezuelas-crude-oil-hits-usd-3554-per-barrel_431529)

 

 

Commodities

Pharmaceutical guild warns of country facing dwindling medication inventories

Freddy Ceballos, President of Venezuela’s Pharmaceutical Federation, warns that unavailability of drugs in Venezuela spurs a breeding ground for the sale of illicit pharmaceutical products. He said the sale of illicit pharmaceutical products in Zulia state has been endorsed by state governor Francisco Arias-Cardenas. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/pharmaceutical-guild-warns-country-facing-dwindling-drug-inventories_431510)

 

 

Economy & Finance

Maduro hikes minimum wage by 50% as inflation soars, small business endangered

President Nicolas Maduro has announced a 50% minimum wage hike that takes effect on Sept. 1, amid triple-digit inflation that has severely weakened spending power here. Monthly minimum wage will rise to 22,577 bolivars, around US$ 35 at the weaker of two official exchange rates but about US$ 23 at the black market rate. Including a 200% hike in meal tickets, it will rise to 65,056 bolivars, around US$ 101.17. "This is the third (minimum wage) hike this year," Maduro said during a televised broadcast. Critics say repeated salary increases are woefully insufficient to offset inflation, which reached 181 percent in 2015 according to official figures. The central bank has not published more up-to-date inflation figures, which opposition leaders say is meant to hide embarrassing economic data. The total full minimum wage, including meal tickets, has now risen 396.7% since January this year. Francisco Martínez, head of FEDECÁMARAS, Venezuela’s largest business federation, says the decree will have a negative impact and lead to closing many small and medium enterprises and the loss of jobs.  (Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-economy-idUSKCN10O01Y; and more in Spanish: (Infolatam: http://www.infolatam.com/2016/08/14/maduro-aumenta-un-50-el-salario-minimo-venezolano-a-partir-de-septiembre/; Notitarde: http://www.notitarde.com/Fedecamaras-alerta-por-posible-cierre-de-pequenas-/Economia/2016/08/16/1017270/; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/economia/ajuste-salarial-debe-unirse-aumento-produccion_431887)

 

How Venezuela’s repressive government controls the nation through hunger

The Venezuelan government has created unspeakable hardships for the populace and, at the same time, is taking advantage of those hardships to introduce new forms of political control. One would think that the proliferation of food lines would prompt riots. And some rioting is occurring. But food lines have paradoxically given the government new mechanisms for keeping protests at bay. Lines and rationing give the government the chance to extend Orwellian supervision. Retailers are being required to keep tabs on who buys what and how much. The government has installed fingerprint scanners in grocery and drug stores. Lines and scarcity give the government the chance to engage in new forms of favoritism. Only the government knows which stores will have which products, which controls food distribution, and it often discloses information only to those who are pro-government. Another form of favoritism has been the creation of government-run “committees” (CLAPs) that distribute groceries mostly to loyal groups. But the most important consequence of lines and rationing has been the increase in military control. Military personnel have been deployed to monitor food lines and supermarkets. They are there with the pretext of protecting citizens from crime, but what they are most successful in doing is repressing any protest that might emerge. (Huffington Post: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/javier-corrales/venezuela-government-hunger_b_11429014.html)

 

 

Politics and International Affairs

15 OAS states urge Venezuela to act on recall 'without delay'

A group of 15 countries called on Venezuela Thursday to act "without delay" to clear the way for an election over whether to recall President Nicolas Maduro from office as a way out of a worsening crisis. The countries, all members of the Organization of American States, issued the joint statement after the head of Venezuela's election authority laid out a schedule this week that appears likely to push any recall election into 2017. The timeline is crucial because if the unpopular Maduro is voted out in a recall election after January 10, he would simply yield power to his handpicked vice president. If the recall is held this year and Maduro loses, the constitution calls for new elections here. The opposition has been pressing for a recall this year, but the National Electoral Council has slow-rolled a complex petition process that involves gathering and validating millions of signatures before the elections can go ahead. "We call on the Venezuelan authorities to guarantee the exercise of the constitutional rights of the Venezuelan people and that the remaining steps for the realization of the presidential recall referendum be pursued clearly, concretely and without delay, and thus contribute to the quick and effective resolution of the current political, economic and social difficulties in the country," the joint statement said. Venezuelan Ambassador Bernardo Alvarez said he was surprised to learn of the joint statement, saying his counterparts were working "behind Venezuela's back" in what he called an "undiplomatic" act. The OAS members signing Thursday's statement urged the government and the opposition "to hold as soon as possible a frank and effective dialogue, directly or with the support of facilitators" to identify long-lasting solutions to the crisis. (AFP: https://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/32308105/15-oas-states-urge-venezuela-to-act-on-recall-without-delay/#page1; Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2418643&CategoryId=10718)

 

Only a presidential referendum can save Venezuela from its humanitarian crisis

Even as economic conditions continue their death spiral, street crime and violence are soaring, the last, best hope for a peaceful, institutional change of direction in Venezuela is an article in the constitution that allows for a recall referendum of the president. Over the past several months, the opposition has been collecting the signatures in a complex process to trigger such a referendum. Unsurprisingly, with polls showing that upward of 68% of Venezuelans would vote to remove Maduro, the electoral council he controls has been moving at a snail’s pace to process the opposition’s paperwork. That’s because, according to the constitution, if the government can delay the referendum until 2017, a No vote on Maduro would mean that his acolyte vice president would assume power for the rest of his term, rather than holding a new election, which would be required if the referendum was held this year. It is a race against time, but at least the international community is rousing to its importance. The secretary general of the Organization of American States, Luis Almagro of Uruguay, has led the charge, calling it the “only solution” to Venezuela’s crisis. The Obama administration is finally waking up to the fact that a major crisis is brewing in Venezuela, and that platitudes about “dialogue” no longer suffice. (National Review: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/438728/)

 

A looming clash in Venezuela, Peru’s Kuczynski points to recall referendum

Venezuela is on a dangerous — and avoidable — collision course. Despair and hunger in Venezuela have deepened in recent weeks as food shortages have worsened and international efforts to bridge the political divide have failed. Far from acknowledging the need for dramatic change, or even that his citizens are suffering, Maduro has continued to blame the nation’s unraveling on a conspiracy between the United States and the opposition. Avoiding a confrontation between the Venezuelan government and those seeking to oust Maduro, which could well turn violent, will require international backing for the ordinary citizens who are fighting to oust a despotic leader. “If there is a social implosion in Venezuela, that will reverberate through the entire region,” the opposition leader, Henrique Capriles, warned during a trip last week to Peru, during which he sought to enlist the help of Peru’s new president, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski. Capriles called on Latin American leaders to support the bid to hold a referendum this year. In his reply, Kuczynski emphasized that Venezuela’s constitution defines the recall process, which he called “a very important matter now”. (The New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/15/opinion/a-looming-clash-in-venezuela.html?emc=eta1&_r=0; and more in Spanish: El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/politica/presidente-kuczynski-reunio-con-capriles_431410; El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/politica/Capriles-logro-reunirse-Kuczynski-Peru_0_901112649.html)

 

Argentina calls on Pope Frances to help dialogue in Venezuela

Argentina’s Foreign Minister Susana Malcorra says there could be a diplomatic initiative seeking a dialogue in Venezuela, including Pope Francis. Malcorra said “we are close to setting up a mechanism that can include an umbrella that will include the Vatican in a dialogue for Venezuela”, and said she met with the Pope last June and discussed this matter. She said the Pope “reiterated that he was willing to take part in a mechanism for mediation” to reach a dialogue between the Maduro regime and the opposition here. More in Spanish: (Noticiero Venevision:http://www.noticierovenevision.net/internacionales/2016/agosto/14/165843=argentina-pide-al-papa-francisco-intervenir-en-el-dialogo-en-venezuela)

 

Caracas appeals court rejects Lopez appeal, draws international condemnation

A Caracas court of appeals has rejected a motion by defense attorneys for imprisoned political leader Leopoldo Lopez, seeking to overturn his almost 14-year jail sentence in a military prison on charges of inciting violence. Lopez’s lawyer, Juan Carlos Gutierrez, says two more levels of appeal remain: within Venezuela´s Supreme Tribunal. Gutierrez said 14 forceful arguments were presented against the “illegal sentence” issued against him and three students last September 15, 2015. US Assistant Secretary of State for Latin America, Mari Carmen Aponte, said she was very worried over this action and asked the Venezuelan government to protect democracy and justice, The United States has insisted on liberating Lopez, which it considers a political prisoner. Luis Almagro, Secretary General of the Organization of American States (OAS) called the decision “a lost opportunity for reconciliation in Venezuela”; and Spain’s Foreign Minister José Manuel García Margallo said the decision “casts serious doubts on the workings of the rule of law in Venezuela”. He added that the Maduro regime “seems determined to dynamite all bridges for an understanding tithe the democratic opposition and block any possibility for a peaceful solution to a conflict that is devastating the country and causing enormous pain to Venezuelan citizens”. He said he would contact the European Union’s High Representative, Federica Mogherini, on this matter and ask Europe’s Foreign Affairs Council to reopen deliberation on Venezuela’s situation. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/spanish-maduro-seems-ready-destroy-understanding-with-dissenters_431815; and more in Spanish: Noticiero Venevision: http://www.noticierovenevision.net/politica/2016/agosto/12/165691=corte-de-apelaciones-ratifica-condena-de-leopoldo-lopez-a-casi-14-anos-de-prision; http://www.noticierovenevision.net/internacionales/2016/agosto/13/165767=eeuu-expreso-preocupacion-por-la-ratificacion-de-la-condena-contra-leopoldo-lopez; http://www.noticierovenevision.net/internacionales/2016/agosto/14/165807=margallo-sostiene-que-existen-)

 

Hard times in Venezuela breed malaria as desperate flock to mines

This country’s economic turmoil has brought malaria back, sweeping the disease out of the remote jungle areas where it quietly persisted and spreading it around the nation at levels not seen in Venezuela for 75 years. It all starts with the mines. With the economy in tatters, at least 70,000 people from all walks of life have been streaming into this mining region over the past year. As they hunt for gold in watery pits, the perfect breeding ground for the mosquitoes that spread the disease, they are catching malaria by the tens of thousands. Then, with the disease in their blood, they return home to Venezuela’s cities. But because of the economic collapse, there is often no medicine and little fumigation to prevent mosquitoes there from biting them and passing malaria to others, sickening tens of thousands more people and leaving entire towns desperate for help. Officially, the spread of malaria in Venezuela has become a state secret. The government has not published epidemiological reports on the disease in the past year, and it says there is no crisis. But the most recent internal figures, obtained from Venezuelan doctors involved in compiling it, confirm a surge is underway. In the first six months of the year, malaria cases rose 72%, to a total of 125,000, according to the figures. (The New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/15/world/venezuela-malaria-mines.html)

 

 

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.

Tuesday, August 9, 2016

August 09, 2016


International Trade

MERCOSUR crisis continues as Venezuela holds onto chair, suspension or exclusion possible. MERCOSUR’s key founding members (Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay) are compiling a list of Venezuela’s compliance and non-compliance with requirements for qualifying an “associate member state”, and will review it later this week. Paraguay’s Foreign Minister Eladio Loizaga says there will be a new meeting of country coordinators on this matter with Uruguay on August 23rd; and added that Venezuela will have until then “to gain full membership into MERCOSUR”. He says Venezuela has failed to sign onto the MERCOSUR Protocol on Human Rights and comply with other economic requirements; and reported that the agenda for the next steps was set during a meeting of the Presidents of Argentina (Macri), Brazil (Temer) and Paraguay (Cartes) during the Rio Olympics. After that, Uruguay’s President Tabaré Vásquez said that Venezuela remains a member “as long as the democratic clause is not applied”, He added that his government will continue to bolster dialogue as "the best tool to find solutions” to the problems facing the Common Market of the South (MERCOSUR). At the same time, Paraguay has recalled its ambassador to Caracas after President Nicolas Maduro made disparaging remarks about Paraguay. Previously, Venezuelan Foreign Minister Delcy Rodriguez had unilaterally raised the MERCOSUR flag in Caracas and said her country will not allow Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay, the so-called “the triple alliance,” to “take by assault” the pro tempore presidency, which she claims is now to be fully exercised by Caracas. She quoted a statement by the chair of the Committee on Economic Affairs of the Brazilian Senate, a supporter of deposed President Dilma Rousseff, who rejected the decision by that country’s interim government. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2418177&CategoryId=10717; Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-paraguay-venezuela-idUSKCN10G1W9; (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/uruguay-advocates-dialogue-overcome-mercosur-crisis_430850; http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/brazilian-senates-economic-committee-backs-venezuelas-mercosur-presidency_430786; and more in Spanish: El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/politica/sin-acuerdo-entre-coordinadores-mercosur-sobre-traspaso-venezuela_430333; Infolatam; http://www.infolatam.com/2016/08/09/crisis-de-mercosur-a-espera-de-cumplimientos-e-incumplimientos-de-venezuela/; El Mundo, http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/economia/internacional/uruguay--venezuela-estara-en-mercosur-mientras-no.aspx#ixzz4GpY6hGq1)

 

Venezuela-Colombia continue discussing reopening binational border. Venezuela’s Foreign Minister Delcy Rodríguez and her Colombian counterpart María Ángela Holguín met in Caracas and announced that the Presidents of both countries may announce a date for reopening of the binational border. Rodríguez explained “We have agreed upon some preliminary actions that can help create the atmosphere for a gradual and progressive reopening of the border”. She said that Colombia has suggested creating a border ID document so that citizens on both sides can transit through the border between 5 AM and 8 PM, which was accepted by Venezuela. Táchira state governor, Lieutenant José Vielma Mora added that Venezuela has proposed a “special customs system” for the border to deal with a basic group of products. The Defense Ministers from both nations are scheduled to meet over the next couple of months. More in Spanish: (El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/economia/Cancilleres-Colombia-Venezuela-proponen-frontera_0_896910602.html; Noticiero Venevisión: http://www.noticierovenevision.net/politica/2016/agosto/4/164938=cancilleres-de-venezuela-y-colombia-se-reunieron-para-analizar-la-reapertura-de-la-frontera;; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/economia/venezuela-propone-regimen-especial-aduanas-frontera-con-colombia_430882)

 

30,000 tons of sugar from Guatemala arrived at Puerto Cabello, according to local Port authority chief General Rafael Aguana. More in Spanish: (El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/economia/Arribaron-toneladas-guatemalteca-Puerto-Cabello_0_898110303.html)

 

1.632 tons of tuna arrive into Cumaná’s port, according to Fisheries and Aquaculture Minister. More in Spanish: (Notitarde, http://www.notitarde.com/Llegaron-1632-toneladas-de-atun-a-Cumana/Economia/2016/08/08/1014882/)

 

Logistics & Transport

CONVIASA cuts daily flights from 20 to 16 due to a pilot shortage after over 80% reportedly have resigned. Sources within the airline report that there are only 6 pilot and co-pilot crews left. More in Spanish: (El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/economia/Conviasa-reducido-vuelos-diarios_0_898710195.html)

 

AVIOR Airlines adds third direct route to Panama, operating from Maracaibo in Western Venezuela. More in Spanish: (El Mundo, http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/economia/empresas/avior-airlines-abrio-tercera-ruta-directa-a-panama.aspx#ixzz4GS3IIVVA)

 

Oil & Energy

Venezuela oil price falls back to April lows. The price Venezuela receives for its mix of medium and heavy oil fell for a sixth consecutive week as world oil stocks remained high and U.S. oil and gasoline stocks continued be in surplus. According to figures released by the Ministry of Petroleum and Mining, the average price of Venezuelan crude sold by Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA) during the week ending August 5 was US$ 33.36, down US$ 1.64 from the previous week's US$ 35.00. 

According to Venezuelan government figures, the average price in 2016 for Venezuela's mix of heavy and medium crude is now US$ 32.09 for the year to date. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2418266&CategoryId=10717)

 

OPEC plans informal talks next month, sees oil dip temporary. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will hold informal talks at a conference in Algiers next month and considers the recent decline in oil prices temporary, the group’s president said. “Expectation of higher crude oil demand in the third and fourth quarters of 2016, coupled with decrease in availability, is leading the analysts to conclude that the current bear market is only temporary” and prices will increase later this year, Mohammed Al Sada, Qatar’s energy minister and holder of OPEC’s rotating presidency, said in a statement on the group’s website. Members constantly discuss ways to stabilize the market, he said. West Texas Intermediate crude rose to the highest level in almost two weeks, gaining as much as 2.8% to US$ 42.97 a barrel as of 10:26 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. OPEC ministers, who rejected a proposal to adopt a new output ceiling when they last met in June, had always planned to continue discussions at the International Energy Forum Ministerial Meeting in Algeria next month, two delegates from the group said Friday.  OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo met with Venezuela’s Oil Minister Eulogio del Pino about holding a meeting with non-member countries, but Russia sees no need for renewing discussion of an oil-output freeze at current crude prices, while leaving open the possibility for the future, Iran will probably raise production to pre-sanctions levels by the end of the year, while Saudi Arabia will also be selling more crude as domestic use of fuel during the country’s summer months slows. (Bloomberg: http://washpost.bloomberg.com/Story?docId=1376-OBKZ146JTSES01-7PC3UU145ETJ1SELR8MJ57V5JA; Reuters: http://www.reuters.com/article/venezuela-oil-idUSL1N1AL1QT)

 

Venezuela's crude sales to the United States up 25% in July. Venezuelan crude sales to the United States increased to 817,806 barrels per day (bdp) in July, the highest level since November, due to larger exports of grades produced in the vast Orinoco Belt. This country’s July shipments to the United States were 25% higher than in June and 12% more than in the same month in 2015. Falling output and delays at Venezuela's main oil port had kept exports low in recent months. The United States received 50 crude cargoes from state-run oil firm PDVSA and its joint ventures in July, versus 39 the previous month. Valero Energy was the largest recipient, followed by PDVSA refining unit CITGO Petroleum, PHILLIPS 66 and CHEVRON Corp. Occasional buyers of Venezuelan oil including LUKOIL Panamericas and MARATHON Petroleum also received shipments in July, according to the data, which is based on preliminary figures. (Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/venezuela-usa-exports-idUSL1N1AL275)

 

China’s Development Bank grants US$ 5 billion to Venezuela, earmarked for joint ventures, says Oil Minister and PDVSA President Eulogio del Pino. He adds that Venezuela is sending China 600,000 BPD of crude oil and the plan calls for the amount increasing to 1 million BPD over the next few days. More in Spanish: (Noticiero Venevisión: http://www.noticierovenevision.net/economia/2016/agosto/8/165269=venezuela-recibira-5-mil-millones-de-dolares-mediante-credito-acordado-con-banco-de-desarrollo-chino)

 

PDVSA’s Del Pino backtracks on statements about errors, private sector participation. A few days ago Venezuela’s Vice President for Energy Affairs and PDVSA President Eulogio Del Pino, an engineer graduated at Stanford University, said publicly that “we must move toward a new model with a private sector majority, and this means admitting mistakes”. The response from regime hardliners was immediate. Former PDVSA President, Rafael Ramírez, currently Venezuela’s UN Ambassador tweeted “Commander Chavez’s oil policy is correct. Nationalization brought oil back to the people. It is his legacy”. Then Lieutenant Diosdado Cabello, Vice President of the ruling PSUV party said “they will not privatize PDVSA because the revolution will rule there until oil runs out”. And former Vice President Elías Jaua wrote: “Has he forgotten there is a Plan for the Fatherland that was approved in popular voting and is now the law of the land?”. Days later, Del Pino backtracked at a rally where he was flanked by Cabello and Jaua: “They have taken some statements in a squalid media, and have set it up trying to indicate that we are trying to privatize the (oil) industry. How can they go to such extremes?”, he said. Analysts wonder why didn’t President Maduro ask for Del Pino’s resignation along with that of Trade and Industry Minister Miguel Pérez Abad? The answer seems to be that PDVSA is preparing a bond swap and financing outstanding debts with suppliers, all of who trust only Del Pino, who may be replaced after such transactions take place. (Analítica: http://www.analitica.com/economia/de-como-el-estatus-quo-puso-de-rodillas-al-presidente-de-pdvsa-por-blanca-vera-azaf/)

 

This could be the last straw for Venezuela's oil sector. Oilfield union officials in Venezuela’s Lake Maracaibo region leaked news to Platts that all is not well in the drilling sector here. With sources saying that major international operator SCHLUMBERGER has halted the majority of its operations.  Union leaders said that SCHLUMBERGER has shut down four of six rigs it was operating for offshore oil production in Lake Maracaibo. The reason being — a lack of payment for drilling services from PDVSA. This shutdown looks to be somewhat of a “last straw” for PDVSA’s operations. After funding for drilling here appeared to come under stress earlier this year — when both SCHLUMBERGER and HALLIBURTON said they were reducing rigs in Venezuela due to non-payment. At the same time, fellow drillers SAN ANTONIO and PETREX suspended a total of 36 rigs across Venezuela. But PDVSA had appeared to be making headway — with SCHLUMBERGER saying in June it had reached an agreement with the oil major to keep six rigs operational in the Lake Maracaibo area.  The fact that most of those drills have now been idled suggests that PDVSA’s last-ditch contract efforts have failed. Possibly signaling a significant cliff ahead for drilling across Venezuela — which could foreshadow an accelerated decline in production. Such a downturn would have big implications for a) global oil supply, b) Latin American oil trade (including the U.S. Gulf Coast), and c) Venezuela projects, national finances, and politics. Watch to see if PDVSA can find a way to get the idled rigs restarted — and for news on further drilling shutdowns in the country. (Business Insider: http://www.businessinsider.com/this-could-be-the-last-straw-for-venezuelas-oil-sector-2016-7)

 

Commodities

Gold Reserve shares surge on US$ 770 million Venezuelan settlement. Gold Reserve Inc. will get about US$ 770 million as part of a settlement with Venezuela for the 2008 seizure of its Brisas gold and copper project in an arrangement that depends on the country securing financing. Shares surged. Payment is expected to be made in two installments: US$ 600 million by the end of October and the rest by year-end, the Spokane, Washington-based company said. Venezuela also agreed to buy the company’s mining data for US$ 240 million and enter into a jointly owned company with Gold Reserve for a 18,000-hectare claim including the Brisas Cristinas deposit. The statement didn’t say where Venezuela, whose oil-dependent economy has been pummeled by slumping energy prices, would obtain the funding. “Venezuela will use the proceeds from any financing it closes after the execution of this agreement to pay Gold Reserve the amounts owed under this agreement in preference to any other creditor,” Gold Reserve said. (Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-08/gold-reserve-shares-surge-on-770-million-venezuelan-settlement)

 

TOYOTA is restarting operations, will produce 150 vehicles per month. TOYOTA has restarted operations at their plant in Cumaná (Sucre state), and expect to produce 150 vehicles per month, for a total 750 assembled units by the end of this year. Their record production was 33,240 units ten years ago. More in Spanish: (El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/economia/Toyota-reanudo-produccion-ofrecera-vehiculos_0_896910604.html)

 

Telefonica opens rate talks in Venezuela after Maduro’s threat. Telefonica SA is holding talks with the Venezuelan government to adjust phone-service rates after President Nicolas Maduro blocked an attempt to increase prices and said the state was open to taking over carriers if necessary. The company is in “talks with the authorities to define new prices," according to a statement on its Venezuelan website Friday. The Madrid-based company also plans to reimburse customers who already paid bills after a July price increase, which was later overturned by the government. As Venezuela struggles with the world’s fastest inflation, Telefonica and rivals had raised prices to stay afloat and be able to pay interconnection fees for international data and call traffic. Nobody can “set prices just like that," Maduro said Aug. 1 on national television, and warned that he was open to taking control of phone carriers if they can’t manage their businesses amid the country’s worst economic recession in decades. (Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-08/telefonica-opens-rate-talks-in-venezuela-after-maduro-s-threat)

 

Economy & Finance

Maduro looks to a Marxist Spaniard for an economic miracle. President Nicolás Maduro, hoping for an economic miracle to salvage his country, has placed his trust in an obscure Marxist professor from Spain who holds so much sway the president calls him “the Jesus Christ of economics.” Alfredo Serrano—a 40-year-old economist whose long hair and beard have also elicited the president’s comparison to Jesus—has become the central economic adviser to Maduro, according to a number of officials in the ruling United Socialist Party and other government consultants. His rise has come at the expense of advisers who, though also leftist, have urged the president to undertake more conventional steps to address Venezuela’s dysfunctional economy, such as liberalizing the country’s tightly controlled currency, these people say. Instead, Serrano’s calls for even more state controls on manufacturing and food supply have largely shaped the president’s response to the country’s economic crisis. Such moves risk prolonging the deepest recession in the nation’s history—as well as the hyperinflation and severe food shortages that have accompanied it. “All the attempts to reform, to coordinate with the private sector, have been blocked by him,” a senior ruling-party lawmaker said. Serrano arrived in Latin America in the mid-2000s with a group of anti-capitalist Spanish intellectuals who would later go on to form Spain’s leftist PODEMOS party. Among his more unorthodox ideas are that inflation is caused by class struggle and that government bureaucracy should be replaced by revolutionary communes that would handle everything from health care to food production. “The communes must be at the center of gravity of the new state,” Serrano said in a July speech in Caracas. (The Wall Street Journal: http://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuelas-nicolas-maduro-looks-to-a-marxist-spaniard-for-an-economic-miracle-1470678805)

 

Venezuela: Trench cabinet. The latest cabinet changes announced by President Maduro are a negative signal, as they reduce the presence of moderate factions within the government while Maduro surrounds himself of loyalists and radicals in what has the appearance of a preamble to radicalization. With the exit of Vice President of Economics Miguel Perez Abad from the cabinet, Eulogio Del Pino, President of PDVSA, is left practically alone in an uncomfortable position on the pragmatic side of the government. In terms of economic policies, the more immediate implication is drifting further away from exchange rate market unification. A possible widening of economic distortions and radicalization of the government also make a successful PDVSA debt swap more difficult. In the current situation, a debt swap of short-maturity bonds that PDVSA has said it is considering would be mainly encouraged by political reasons. PDVSA had not done this swap before because of its high cost, and these conditions have not improved. The government could be changing its mind and be willing to have a transaction, even if it is at the expense of a significant increase in the debt stock and/or the debt service, as long as it increases its margins to maneuver the political situation. A successful debt swap could have a bigger political than economic effect. While cash flows would likely remain tight, it could significantly reduce the probability of a political transition: US$ 6 billion less in debt payments over the next 16 months could be used by the government to increase imports almost 30%, helping it to calm the political situation. Although PDVSA is supposed to be able to issue debt without approval of the National Assembly, the conditions in which this transaction could take place are likely to generate political noise and could give any new administration arguments to question the legitimacy of this debt. A successful swap could have mixed implications for Venezuelan/ PDVSA debt. While it would support the view of the investor base that has maintained a strong confidence in the short-term willingness and capacity to pay of the country, it could weaken the arguments of those who have been expecting a political transition to lead to a more market-friendly government. Perhaps unintentionally, with a successful swap, the market could end up helping the government to prevent the scenario that would be better for the market itself. (Barclay’s: Full Report Attached).

 

July inflation pegged at 23.2% according to sources within Venezuela’s Central Bank; and year to date inflation is now 240%. Inflation for the past full year was 565.2%, only in products under price controls. Central Bank experts say these levels of inflation are unprecedented in Venezuela. More in Spanish: (El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/economia/Inflacion-julio-cerro_0_896910608.html)

 

Lorenzo Mendoza willing to meet with Venezuelan government. Lorenzo Mendoza, the head of Venezuela’s major food producer Empresas Polar, says he is willing to meet with President Nicolas Maduro. “Should President Maduro call me to meet, I will go, just the way I did the other times when I was called,” Mendoza said in an interview. About dialogue, the businessman termed it necessary, but he discouraged dividing dialogue into political or economic. “In today’s civilization and world, communication and dialogue are a coexistence rule. I think sectorizing things (…) removes a natural structure from dialogue. Let’s talk about the relevant topics,” Mendoza added. (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/lorenzo-mendoza-willing-meet-with-venezuelan-govt_430793)

 

Politics and International Affairs

Presidential recall unlikely this year amid new tentative timeline. President Nicolas Maduro is highly unlikely to face recall this year, as authorities provided a detailed electoral calendar suggesting a vote might not happen until early 2017.  If the recall were to happen before Jan. 10, 2017, it would trigger new elections. However, If Maduro were to lose a recall vote after that date, his hand-picked vice president would finish out his term through 2019. The opposition has been accusing the electoral body of dragging its feet on the process to protect the unpopular Maduro. And opposition leaders are planning a massive Sept. 1 march on Caracas to demand the vote. National Electoral Council President Tibisay Lucena said the opposition was “wasting its time.” “This electoral power does not accept pressure from anyone,” she told an audience of administration officials. According to her timeline, the opposition might be asked to collect 3.9 million signatures — or 20% of voter rolls — at the end of October. The body would then have 28 or 29 days to review those signatures and call a referendum. But the CNE can schedule that vote anytime during the next 90 days, making a January or February vote a possibility. (The Miami Herald: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article94596437.html; Summarium:


 

Independent CNE member refutes Lucena’s presentation. Luis Emilio Rondon, the sole independent member of the 5 member National Elections Council (CNE) says he did not attend Tibisay Lucena’s press conference today because he disagrees with the decision to delay the 20% signature collection to late October. He said an earlier date could be set if technical and logistic preparations begin during the second half of August. He condemned his colleagues for delaying timetables for executing the recall process, which was established in September 2007, and charges that the 5 days needed to check signatures in the first stage were turned into over 30 days. Rondón adds that “there is no legal, technical or logistic obstacle to carry out recall request procedures once requirements are complied with” and says the absence of a timetable since the time the request was accepted “has damaged the principle of impartiality that the institution must maintain” He says the national crisis should lead the CNE to respect the timetables that were established, and must comply with the requisite of “speed in complying with its constitutional duty.” (Prodavinci: http://prodavinci.com/2016/08/09/actualidad/esta-fue-la-respuesta-del-rector-luis-emilio-rondon-al-anuncio-de-tibisay-lucena-sobre-el-revocatorio/)

 

Opposition coalition calls for massive demonstration on September 1st to demand recall timetable. Opposition leader Henrique Capriles Radonski, a former presidential candidate and current governor of Miranda states, if there the National Elections Council (CNE) does not provide a timetable for a recall process against President Nicolas Maduro, the Democratic Unity opposition coalition call for a massive nationwide mobilization to occupy the entire city of Caracas. In reference to today’s statements by CNE Chair Tibisay Lucena, Capriles said “the nation does not accept (the word) “could”(Lucena referred to all possible recall dates in tentative terms) … “it is our constitutional right and we will make it stick” He called Lucena’s press conference was “an exercise in cynicism and lies”, and said Lucena “believes we Venezuelans are fools”. He added that Lucena’s statements aimed at demoralizing voters. (Noticiero Venevision: http://www.noticierovenevision.net/politica/2016/agosto/6/165093=mud-convoca-gran-movilizacion-el-1°-de-septiembre-si-el-cne-no-da-fecha-del-20)

 

National Assembly moves to replace National Elections Council board members. Congressman Julio Borges, who heads the opposition majority in the National Assembly, has announced that the Legislature will appoint members of the Nominating Committee that will elect new members of the National Elections Council as is required this very same year - when their terms expire. He said they would also call upon the CNE to honor the rights of Venezuelans to a recall referendum and regional elections. “This is a right that cannot be negotiated, changed, or manipulated by the government as it tries to remain in power.” More in Spanish: (Ultimas Noticias: http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/politica/borges-anuncia-creacion-del-comite-elegir-nuevos-rectores-del-cne/; Analítica: http://www.analitica.com/actualidad/actualidad-nacional/julio-borges-vamos-a-constituir-los-comites-de-postulaciones-para-sustituir-al-cne/)

 

Gubernatorial elections remain on hold. The last regional elections to elect state governors and state legislators were held in Venezuela on December 16 2012. The result was a victory for the ruling United Socialist Party (PSUV), which won the governorships of 20 of the 23 states. The term of incumbent governors expires in December of this year. According to Constitution, governors are elected for four-year terms. The National Electoral Council (CNE) has yet to release a decision or a date for these elections, (El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/daily-news/would-be-candidates-for-governors-await-decision-from-the-mud-and-the-gpp_430433)

 

Slow motion coup in Venezuela? In recent weeks Nicolás Maduro appears to have taken a back seat to Venezuela’s top general, defense minister Vladimir Padrino López, who also – unusually – holds the post of operational commander of the armed forces. The prominence of the military in determining Venezuela’s political future was illustrated once again last week by the appointment of Néstor Reverol as interior minister. Unlike Padrino, who rose through the army, Reverol hails from the National Guard. His alleged criminal connections suggest that different factions in the military may now be jostling for shares of influence in the state. The gradual expansion of military powers in response to the regime´s loss of legitimacy is starting to resemble a slow-motion coup. What is in doubt is the army’s ability to improve the situation. General Padrino has said that he does not want to “militarize” the administration but to “restore order” in the face of a “lack of governance” – a strange choice of words, given that any such lack must be attributed to his commander-in-chief. With so much power concentrated in the hands of the military, understanding what their goals are is paramount. Rather than merely shoring up an increasingly unpopular president, the aim of the generals may be to control the transition in a way that protects their own interests. The defense minister’s new role means “the dialogue [over] transition will be with the military”, as one defense expert put it. But if the army cannot halt the slide into economic and social chaos, the crisis could take the generals with it too. So far, there is no sign of a workable plan in that regard. (The Crisis Group: https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-america-caribbean/andes/venezuela/slow-motion-coup-venezuela)

 

Venturing Into Caracas' Chavismo bastion.

Traditionally, colectivos are known to be radical, left-wing armed groups that support Venezuela's ruling party in exchange for patronage. But they are also individual clans, each seeking to serve as a counterbalance to the others as they vie for resources, territory and power.  According to one source: "There are more than 60 colectivos, some of them have their own personal objectives, like education, where others are inherently linked with government officials, and others, yet the smallest and newest self-label themselves as colectivos, just to inspire fear, but in reality they are criminal bands." Colectivos gained what power they have by aligning with Chavez and still have reason to serve the government to keep its patronage flowing. But they are angry and are frustrated with Maduro's economic policies. Even if his administration sticks to Chavez's model of supporting the groups with money and government aid, there is no guarantee that it will be enough to stop them from protesting his measures. Should the president's plummeting popularity give the Venezuelan opposition room to unseat the ruling party, the next government could seek to rein in the colectivos by reducing their power and autonomy. Such an outcome would provoke heavy resistance, whether through violence or protests. (Stratfor: https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/venturing-caracas-chavismo-bastion).

 

The following brief is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.