International Trade
Imports from Colombia down 48% in 2017
Trade between Venezuela and Colombia was US$
539 million during 2017, a 33% drop from US$ 802 million in 2016, as per data
from Colombia’s National Statistics Department reported by the
Venezuela-Colombia Economic Integration Chamber (CAVECOL). The report shows
imports from Colombia totaled US$ 319 million last year, a 48% drop from US4
612 million in 2016. The three main products that were imported from Colombia
were sugar and sweeteners (13.1%), electrical supplies, video and sound
equipment (5.2%); and plastic material and products (5%). More in Spanish: (El
Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/noticias/economia/importaciones-desde-colombia-cayeron_225475)
Logistics & Transport
Air carriers authorized to sell tickets in
Petros
Cryptocurrency Supervisor Carlos Vargas has
announced that domestic and international tickets may be sold in Petros and
other cryptocurrencies. He also said: “all
Venezuelan fuel sold at gas stations along the border with Colombia will also
be sold in Petros”. More in Spanish: (AVN, http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/autorizan-aerol%C3%ADneas-nacionales-vender-boletos-petros)
Oil & Energy
Venezuela's oil output running 1.5 million bpd
short: Ecuador minister
Venezuela’s oil production is running 1.5
million barrels per day (bpd) short of its historic output, but it is something
that the country must address itself, Ecuador oil minister Carlos Perez said on
Monday. The country should address the shortfall on its own, he said on the
sidelines of the CERAWeek energy conference, adding: “It is up to (Venezuela) to decide what to do.” The United Arab
Emirates oil minister said on Sunday that OPEC last year discussed member
Venezuela’s falling production and offered technical aid to help restore this
country’s output.
Venezuela’s oil production fell 13 percent in
2017 to a 28-year low of about 2.072 million bpd. OPEC believes Venezuela will
be able to rebuild its production, UAE oil minister Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei
said. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ceraweek-opec-ecuador/venezuelas-oil-output-running-1-5-million-bpd-short-ecuador-minister-idUSKBN1GH2FR)
Trump administration
seizes energy opportunity amid Venezuela collapse
While the White House tightens the grip on
Venezuela, the Trump administration is simultaneously drafting contingency
plans for the U.S. energy sector to assist Caribbean and Latin American
governments that have been reliant on Venezuela oil. The White House is meeting
with foreign leaders in the hemisphere to discuss how the U.S. government and
energy industry can provide them with fuel and infrastructure needs in the
event the Maduro regime collapses and the political crisis in Venezuela chokes
off the supply of subsidized oil. “This
is a great time for the U.S. to be both promoting the infrastructure work that
the U.S. can do, but also be exporting some of the extra energy that is coming
out of the shale deposits,” a senior administration official told
McClatchy. Caribbean and Latin American nations like Haiti, St. Vincent and
Grenadines, Dominica, St. Kitts and Nevis and Nicaragua receive billions in
cheap loans for oil. And in return, they have helped Maduro retain crucial
diplomatic support and block hemispheric efforts to punish the regime. What
made Venezuelan petroleum so attractive were the discounts that Caribbean
governments received. Money saved was supposed to be invested in social
programs, but the governments have also come under scrutiny for mismanagement
and criticism. One example is Haiti, where a special Haitian Senate commission
is accusing former government officials of embezzling and wasting US$ 2 billion
in PETROCARIBE funds. The subsidized oil program allowed some countries the
luxury of embracing anti-U.S. rhetoric. But now they’ve been forced to reduce
their reliance on Venezuela's subsidized oil export program and are looking
north for help. The Trump administration sees an opportunity to wedge itself
between countries that once depended on Venezuela oil and the Maduro regime.
(McClatchy: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/white-house/article203633614.html)
Venezuela oil basket
starts March on an uptick
The price Venezuela receives for its mix of
medium and heavy oil rose going into the first week of March. According to
figures released by the Ministry of Petroleum and Mining, the average price of
Venezuelan crude sold by Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA) during the week
ending March 2 rose to US$ 59.08, up 75 cents from the previous week's US$ 58.33.
According to Venezuelan government
figures, the average price in 2018 for Venezuela's mix of heavy and medium
crude for 2018 is US$ 60.04.(Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2452044&CategoryId=10717)
Economy & Finance
Venezuelan economy tanked 13.2% in 2017
Venezuela’s crumbling economy shrank 13.2% in
2017, the fourth year of a crippling recession in the OPEC nation, the
opposition-led congress said on Monday. The opposition has been calculating
inflation and GDP in the absence of up-to-date official data for the
socialist-run economy that has been contracting since early 2014. “The economy is being destroyed,” said
opposition lawmaker and economist Jose Guerra at a presentation of the figures
at the opposition-controlled National Assembly. (Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-economy/venezuelan-economy-tanked-13-2-percent-in-2017-opposition-idUSKBN1GH2HQ)
Venezuelans are paying a 100% premium for cash
It’s yet another frustration of living in an
imploding economy. There are few places as chaotic or dangerous as Venezuela. “Life in Caracas” is a new series of short stories
that seeks to capture the surreal quality of living in a land in total
disarray. Amid widespread cash shortages, paper money is much sought after in
poorer neighborhoods, where people often have no other way to make payments.
Traders there are everywhere, charging up to 100% interest on cash for people
desperate for it, including taxi drivers, restaurant owners, product salesmen,
anyone in a hurry. (Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-02/venezuelans-are-paying-a-100-premium-for-cash)
US Federal Court
registers US$1.2 billion judgment for RUSORO against Venezuela
U.S. Federal District Court Judge Richard J.
Leon has ordered RUSORO's US$1.2 billion ICSID Expropriation award against
Venezuela registered in the U.S. RUSORO took the ICSID judgment to U.S. Federal
Court in Washington, D.C. on October 10, 2016 to register the award so that
they could begin to collect on the judgment in the U.S. against Venezuela assets.
RUSORO, a company with Russian capital that is based in Vancouver, Canada, had
two mines in production in Venezuela: the Choco 10 mine (previously operated by
Goldfields) and the Isidora mine, both near the southeastern town of El Callao.
President Hugo Chavez expropriated Rusoro's gold mining interests on August 23,
2011. (Latin American Herald Tribune: http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2451864&CategoryId=10717)
Regime tightens controls on private sector
During Nicolas
Maduro’s 59-month rule, he has found that 2 enabling laws and repeated economic
emergency degrees not enough to fence in private initiative, and he is now
calling on his “National Constitutional Assembly” to create more barriers for a
business community that has been hit with 15 years of regulations. He has sent
8 new laws and proposals to the Assembly that would impose further
restrictions, pressure and threaten private economic activity. More in Spanish:
(El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/noticias/economia/anc-recrudece-controles-sector-privado_225399)
Maduro again raises minimum wage
President Nicolas Maduro went on Facebook Live
to announce he is decreeing yet another minimum wage increase, following the
recent 58% increase. Food stamps are also to be increased by 67%. In addition,
he said he would give 5 million women a 700,000 VEB bonus through the
“Fatherland License”, on March 8th, “Women’s Day”. More in Spanish: (Noticiero
Venevisión, http://www.noticierovenevision.net/noticias/economia/presidente-maduro-anuncio-aumento-del-salario-minimo-y-del-cesta-ticket; El Universal, http://www.eluniversal.com/politica/1358/maduro-anuncio-aumento-sueldo-minimo-partir-primero-mayo; AVN, http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/ingreso-m%C3%ADnimo-integral-queda-1307546-bol%C3%ADvares-desde-este-jueves)
OP-ED: Venezuela's
cryptocurrency is one of the worst investments ever
There are two types of countries, just as there
are two types of companies: ones that are doing well, and ones that are
pivoting to blockchain. And now it's Venezuela's turn to try to cash in on the
crypto craze to save itself from its own long list of mistakes. It's hard to
think of a government that, absent a war, revolution or Stalinist-style purge,
has done a worse job running its economy than Venezuela's. Which is why
Venezuela's government has just launched the Petro, its own cryptocurrency
backed by oil. Well, at least that's what the regime is saying. In reality, the
Petro isn't a crypto, it isn't a currency, and it isn't backed by oil in any
meaningful sense. It's just a way for Caracas to try to get around the
sanctions against it while raising money from the only people more clueless
than itself. It isn't an exaggeration to say that the Petro might be the most
obviously horrible investment ever. There are two things to understand here.
The first is that you can only buy Petros with dollars, not bolivars. The
second is that you can only use Petros to pay your taxes in Venezuela. They
aren't good for anything else. And that sets up a very deliberate catch-22: The
only people who can buy Petros can't use them, and the only people who can use
them can't buy them. Venezuela's government says it will value your Petros at
whatever price it calculates oil is at when you use them to pay taxes. What it
won't do, though, is give you oil itself in return for them. So, if you're
looking for a way to bet on the price of oil that only works as long as you owe
taxes in Venezuela and believe one of the least trustworthy governments in the
world will keep its promises, well, the Petro is for you. For everybody else,
you can just buy oil instead. The Petro is about creating something useless -
that's why only foreigners can buy them, but only Venezuelans can spend them -
that, through the magic of techno-utopian jargon, is able to persuade enough
people it's the future for them to fork over US$ 735 million for it. That's how
much money the Chavista regime says it's raised so far. Maybe that's a lie ...
but maybe it's not. Cryptocurrency investors, after all, aren't always the most
discerning bunch. It was only a few months ago that they pushed the price of
dogecoin, a bitcoin parody featuring dogs saying ungrammatical things, up to as
much as US$ 2 billion. Is buying a bond that will never pay you back from a
government that's already defaulting on its debt any worse a decision? Arguably
not! At this rate, it won't be long until every person, company and country in
the world is focusing on blockchain. If Venezuela can make money off it, there
isn't anyone who can't. (The Chicago Tribune: http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/columnists/ct-venezuela-cryptocurrency-petro-20180305-story.html)
Politics and International Affairs
19 Army officers
reportedly arrested for “conspiracy”
19 Army officers have reportedly been arrested
over the weekend; among them the commander of the key armored Ayala Battalion,
Iber Marín Chaparro, who was an aide to the late President Hugo Chavez, who
once said he had his “entire trust”.
Those arrested are part of the most important units in the Fort Tiuna garrison
in Caracas. The Ayala Battalion is the largest in the country, including 300
US-made Dragon tanks and 45 Russian-made units with very high firepower.
Military sources report this battalion is down to 245 men, from 350, due to
desertions. Another group arrested belong to the Bolívar Armored Battalion,
which also operates out of Fort Tiuna, which used MBP-3 tanks. Marín Chaparro,
who is a nephew of the Apure State Governor and former Vice President, General
Ramón Carrizales, is reported to have been interrogated by Defense Minister
Major General Vladimir Maduro before being taken to Military
Counter-Intelligence headquarters. Army Lieutenant Colonel Eric Peña Romero, a
former aide to Major General Miguel Rodríguez Torres at the Bolivarian
Intelligence Service (SEBIN), was also arrested. More in Spanish: (Venepress: https://venepress.com/article/Detenido_en_DGCIM_Comandante_del_Batallon_Ayala_por_presunta_conspiracion1520273240715)
Maduro demotes, expels
13 military officers
President Nicolas Maduro demoted, expelled or
separated from the Armed Forces 13 current and/or former military officers,
including men currently in jail and retired personnel. Raul Isaias Baduel, the
Army General in Chief who rescued Maduro’s mentor and predecessor, Hugo Chavez,
after a failed coup d’etat in 2001 and who is already in jail (for asking that
Maduro leave office last year) and who retired when Chavez was still alive and
in power (both men had a falling out after Baduel came out against eternal
re-election) was the first officer mentioned in the decree. Maduro is accusing
Baduel and the other 13 officers of crimes against the integrity, independence
and freedom of the nation, including treason to the fatherland. Local military
and security affairs NGO “Control Ciudadano” said the total number of military
officers demoted recently, including the recent batch of 13 expurgated
personnel, is now 24. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2451998&CategoryId=10717)
Venezuela presidential
election postponed to May 20th
The snap presidential election in Venezuela
scheduled for 22 April has been pushed back by a month, the National Electoral
Council (CNE) has announced. The CNE said the poll would now be held on 20 May.
The move came after an agreement was reached between the government and a small
number of opposition parties. CNE chief Tibisay Lucena also announced the
government had agreed on "electoral
guarantees" for the forthcoming elections with a few minor opposition
parties. UN chief Antonio Guterres would also be invited to send an observer
mission to monitor "all phases of
the process". The decision was widely interpreted by critics of the
government as an attempt to steamroll the deeply divided opposition coalition
and throw it into disarray. It also triggered international criticism, with
Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru all rejecting the early
election and some countries warning that they would not recognize the result.
The US has said it would consider imposing further sanctions against the
government if it went ahead with the presidential vote under what it called
fraudulent conditions. The main opposition Democratic Unity coalition announced
it would boycott the 22 April election and refused to put up any candidates to
oppose President Maduro. In response to the latest announcement the coalition
said it would be maintaining its boycott, saying the elections would still be
fraudulent. The organization tweeted that none of its members had signed the
agreement with the Electoral Council. But former state governor Henri Falcón
decided to run in the presidential election. The most high-profile opposition
candidates, such as Henrique Capriles and Leopoldo López, are barred from
running. Others have left the country for fear of arrest. It is also not clear
whether the delay will ease pressure on the Venezuelan government. An unnamed
US government official quoted by news agency Reuters said a delay "likely would not prompt the US
administration to hold back on sanctions". (BBC News: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-43241884)
Venezuelan Parliament calls on UN not to “legitimize” snap presidential elections
Luis Florido, Chairman of the National
Assembly’s Foreign Affairs Commission, has called on the United Nations to
withhold recognition from snap presidential elections now rescheduled to May 20th.
He says: “The terms for election
competitiveness do not exist in Venezuela since this is a fake elections
charade”. He wrote that the UN should become an international observer “only in competitive and truly free elections”.
More in Spanish: (Noticiero Venevisión, http://www.noticierovenevision.net/noticias/politica/asamblea-nacional-pido-a-la-onu-no-legitimar-presidenciales; El Nacional, http://www.el-nacional.com/noticias/asamblea-nacional/asamblea-nacional-pidio-onu-avalar-presidenciales_225623)
Poll shows 77.6% of
Venezuelans want to take part in presidential vote
A recent poll by DATANALISIS shows that 77.6%
of 1000 Venezuelans asked said they want to vote, and 12.3% say they will
abstain. Pro-regime voters intend to vote by 96.7%, along with 65.9% of
opponents, and 80.1% of independents. 9.1% of those polled are totally
unwilling to vote, 13.3% not very disposed; 34% willing to vote, 39.1% very
willing; and 4.1% would not respond. The most popular leader is Leopoldo López,
who is disqualified and under house arrest, which makes Henri Falcón the main
choice, even above Henrique Capriles Radonski, who has also been disqualified. The
poll shows a majority of opponent would vote for López, while a large segment
of independents would choose Falcón. When López and Capriles are withdrawn from
the list, President Nicolás Maduro leads with 19.7%. If all opposition choices
were joined they would amply surpass all pro-regime groups. More in Spanish:
(Venepress: https://venepress.com/article/Asi_esta_la1520285437818)
Maduro sings lewd
version of ‘Despacito’ as he
announces re-election bid
On Tuesday, President Nicolás Maduro told a
group of red shirt-clad followers that he will officially run for re-election
in April’s snap presidential vote—and he did so to the rhythm of Luis Fonsi and
Daddy Yankee’s smash hit “Despacito” by
changing the song lyrics for a more salacious version. In reference to former
National Assembly president and opposition leader Henry Ramos Allup—Maduro’s
political foe—the left-leaning leader said he would “despacito [Spanish for “slowly”] shove it up [to Allup], 10 million
votes down his gut, slowly.” This is not the first time Maduro used Fonsi’s
song for political reasons. Last summer, the Venezuelan strongman told
opponents that his Constituent Assembly project was going to happen by altering
the song lyrics. In response, the Puerto Rican singer issued a statement in
Spanish via Instagram, saying: “At no
time I’ve been consulted, nor I’ve authorized the use or change of Despacito’s
lyrics for political purposes, much less in the deplorable situation that a
country that I love as much as Venezuela is in.” (Newsweek: http://www.newsweek.com/venezuelas-maduro-sings-lewd-version-despacito-he-announces-re-election-bid-824809)
Pragmatic candidate
livens up Venezuela’s presidential race
In another year, Henri Falcon might be just
another middle-of-the-pack presidential candidate in Venezuela. He’s not the
most popular opposition leader. He’s a dull speechmaker. The parties that back
him are small. He’s managed to irritate both the left and the right. But a
boycott of the race by Venezuela’s biggest parties means Falcon is by far the
most prominent option on the May 20 ballot for those who want to unseat
socialist President Nicolas Maduro — and polls indicate that is the majority in
a country with spreading hunger and an almost worthless currency. Some of the
same polls even have the former governor as the front-runner, with a
double-digit lead over Maduro. The big question is whether that will matter.
Most of Venezuela’s opposition, joined by the U.S. and much of the
international community, is convinced it won’t — that the fix is in. Falcon,
56, lacks the flair of many Venezuelan political figures. He comes across as a
cerebral, competent manager driven more by pragmatism than ideology. Even while
in the ruling socialist movement, he kept lines open to the business community
that was being pummeled by much of the government. Now as an opponent, he calls
for preserving generous social programs and subsidies started under Chavez. He
has urged seeking help from the International Monetary Fund, and his most noted
economic adviser, Wall Street analyst Francisco Rodriguez, has called for
adopting the dollar as the national currency to halt the hyperinflation that
has devastated the economy. In a 2010 secret cable made public through
Wikileaks, then U.S. Ambassador Patrick Duddy described Falcon as a “Chavista Lite.” But his Chavista
heritage led to lingering suspicion among anti-government rivals. He was
banished from the opposition coalition after announcing his candidacy, with
some hardliners suggesting he should be sanctioned by the U.S., which has
backed the decision to boycott the vote. That mistrust, combined with anger at
his decision to buck the election boycott and a widespread loss of hope among
the opposition, could depress turnout, undermining his chances if the vote
turns out to be fair. Partly for the same reason, he lost a re-election bid in
October against a government loyalist by a landslide. Still, a recent survey by
local pollster DATANALISIS said most people identifying themselves as
opposition supporters indicated a willingness to vote even under current
conditions that they view as rigged. The Feb. 1-14 poll had Falcon, before he
announced his candidacy, leading Maduro by more than 12 points. It had a margin
of error of plus or minus three percentage points; and some see Falcon’s
politics as the most feasible way forward for Venezuela, allowing a soft
landing for Maduro should he decide to cede power. (AP: https://apnews.com/1276721f9f5f4937890eab761e4c4792)
OP-ED: Why I am
running for President of Venezuela, by Henri Falcón
Last week, I registered as a candidate for the
presidency of Venezuela. I am running for president because I think Venezuelans
should have a choice of whether to continue with the disastrous rule of
President Nicolás Maduro, or to support a route of inclusion, progress and
justice. Some of my fellow members in the opposition coalition have called for
boycotting the election, claiming that misconduct by the regime makes a free
and fair vote impossible. They are right in denouncing the abuses of the
government: Maduro has persecuted opposition leaders, banned political parties,
filled electoral institutions with his loyalists and blatantly used government
resources in his campaign. Venezuela’s presidential election will be played on
an uneven playing field. Those who want to sit out the election argue that
participating lends legitimacy to a rigged process. They also worry that the
international support that the opposition has been able to muster could wane as
a result of our decision. These concerns are legitimate. But we can’t give up
and let Maduro get away with six more years in power. Choosing to fight under
unfair rules does not legitimize the rules: it affirms our willingness to
defend our rights. And if the government decides to steal this election, it can
count on finding me in the streets, by the sides of the brave Venezuelan
people, fighting for our right to be respected. My difference is one of
strategy. Electoral boycotts almost never work. When resistance movements
decided instead to confront authoritarian regimes at the polls — authoritarians
from Pinochet to Milosevic — they had a much greater chance of producing regime
change. Governments do not win elections during periods of hyperinflation —
except when, as in Zimbabwe in 2008, the opposition makes the fatal mistake of
boycotting the vote. Opinion surveys consistently show that Venezuelans want to
vote in the coming elections. I agree that divisions in the opposition are
harmful to our cause. Still, since the overwhelming majority of Venezuelans want
to vote, my responsibility is to stand by our people, even if it means breaking
with the minority that wants to sit out the election. The overriding priority
of my administration will be to make sure that not one Venezuelan child goes to
bed without having eaten. I will seek international assistance — including from
bilateral and multilateral agencies — to replenish stocks of food and
medicines. I will create a program of conditional cash transfers with the
objective of eradicating hunger. I will also immediately free all the country’s
political prisoners, thrown in the government’s dungeons for the sole crime of
thinking differently. My plea to Venezuelans who oppose Maduro’s despotic rule
is to reach across our divisions and reunite around the common project of a
better country. But reconciliation begins with justice, and those responsible
for human rights violations and corruption must be held accountable. (The New
York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/06/opinion/henri-falcon-president-venezuela.html)
SPECIAL REPORT: Can
Venezuela be saved?
The New York Times magazine has recently published
a lengthy special report on Leopoldo López, the leader of Venezuela’s Voluntad
Popular party. López was arrested in February 2014 after leading a public
protest that turned violent. Prosecutors acknowledged in court that López was
technically peaceful, but they accused him of inciting others to hatred and
violence. At trial, he was sentenced to 13 years and nine months in prison.
Since then, he has become the most prominent political prisoner in Latin
America, if not the world. López has become a kind of symbol but there’s
widespread disagreement on precisely what he represents. For three and a half
years in prison, López refused to let anyone speak for him. Though he was
prohibited from granting interviews or issuing public statements and was often
denied access to books, paper, pens and pencils, he managed to scribble
messages on scraps of paper for his family to smuggle out, and he recorded a
handful of covert audio and video messages denouncing the Maduro government.
From time to time, he could even be heard screaming political slogans through
the bars of the concrete tower in the military prison where he was kept in
isolation. López was released to house arrest last July on the condition that
he fall silent. He promptly climbed the fence behind his house to rally a
gathering crowd, then issued a video message asking his followers to resist the
government. Three weeks later, he was back in prison; after four days, he was
released again. Ever since, he has vanished from public view. Almost nobody is allowed to enter the López
house, for one thing, being surrounded all day and night by the Venezuelan
secret police. Using an obscure video service, he spoke to a New York Times
reporter. Asked if he ever thought about trying to escape. “Most people tell me that I should,” he
said. “But I believe a commitment to the
cause means that I need to take the risk.” The word “radical” is often used
about López in a misleading way. Where you can describe López as a radical is
the way he approaches political activity. He believes that a relentless
campaign of street demonstrations and civil disobedience is essential to
challenge an authoritarian government. He now says: “In the past, I was in confrontation with different views,” he told
me. “Now I understand that everybody is
needed to reach a way out of this disaster … A lot of people in the opposition
have resentment, and I understand that,” he told me. “But I think our responsibility is to move beyond the personal
resentment. Four years in prison have given me the possibility of seeing things
a different way, of putting rage in its perspective … It’s not easy, but I have the responsibility to speak my mind. I’ve
been in prison four years now because of speaking my mind, and if I
self-censor, I’m beaten by the dictatorship.” López said he still believed
that with the right leadership, Venezuela could rebound. He knew that
stabilizing the Bolívar could be accomplished by attaching its value to a
foreign currency, and that under a new government, the private sector would
return. He believed the country’s oil production would recover under good
management, and he had been working for nearly a decade on a plan to convert
the national oil company into a kind of Social Security trust, with investment
shares assigned to the public for retirement, education and emergencies. Unable
to speak publicly, he developed a network of private channels — reconnecting
with leaders of the political parties from which he’d split, making inroads
with members of the Maduro government and with foreign ministers and heads of
state. López was also flexible in his thinking about transition. An unwelcome
mechanism can bring welcome change. “In
1958, there was a military coup that began the transition to democracy,” he
said. “And in other Latin American
countries, there have been coups that called elections. So, I don’t want to
rule anything out, because the electoral window has been closed. We need to go
forward on many different levels. One is street demonstrations; a second is
coordination with the international community. But this is how I’m thinking
now: We need to increase all forms of pressure. Anything, anything that needs
to happen to produce a free and fair election.” Since the publication of
this article, armed guards from the Venezuelan intelligence service have raided
and occupied the residence of Leopoldo López. Members of the Venezuelan
National Assembly gathered in front of the house, along with local media and
citizens, to protest the invasion and threats by the Venezuelan government that
López will be returned to military prison. (The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/01/magazine/can-venezuela-be-saved.html)
Almagro denounces secret police raid into Lopez’ home as “illegal”
OAS Secretary General
Luis Almagro has denounced the “illegal
and intimidating” nighttime entry by Venezuelan secret pólice (SEBIN) into
the home of Leopoldo López, who remains under house arrest in Caracas. More in
Spanish: (Noticiero Venevisión, http://www.noticierovenevision.net/noticias/internacional/almagro-considera-ilegal-la-entrada-del-sebin-venezolano-en-casa-de-lopez)
OP-ED by Sen. Marco
Rubio: Venezuelan military could help restore democracy
No one should be fooled when Venezuelan
dictator Nicolás Maduro holds a fraudulent presidential election and seeks to
force illegitimate legislative elections to replace the country’s
democratically elected National Assembly on April 22. While the Castro-backed
Maduro regime and his cronies cynically seek to use a sham vote to restore
their international legitimacy, these “elections”
will be unfree, unfair and completely rigged. Maduro has banned virtually every
opponent — including his strongest political rivals, Leopoldo López, María
Corina Machado, Henrique Capriles and Antonio Ledezma — from running against
him. The regime will monitor how government workers and recipients of subsidized
food vote, with the clear threat of losing their jobs or their food if they
don’t vote for Maduro. And the regime will not allow credible and transparent
international monitors to observe the vote, allowing it to alter unfavorable
polling outcomes, just like it did in the illegitimate Constituent Assembly
elections of July 2017 and regional elections of October 2017. In short, their
sham “elections” will not be free,
fair or transparent — Maduro would lose if they were. The Venezuelan people and
the rank and file members of its embattled military can be the ultimate
instrument for ending the dictatorship and restoring Venezuela’s constitutional
democracy. History reminds us that despots rarely give up dictatorial power
voluntarily. The most stable and peaceful path forward for Venezuela is for a
united front of disaffected government insiders and military personnel, with
popular support from the Venezuelan people, to remove Maduro and his inner
circle from power. But the Venezuelan military, with the popular support of
their citizenry, can end this dictatorship and restore their people’s freedom,
dignity, and right to govern themselves. If, and when, they choose to, I
believe they will enjoy overwhelming support from the United States and other
free nations of the world. (The Miami Herald: http://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/op-ed/article202764209.html)
ALBA Summit in
Venezuela agrees to promote Maduro’s entry into Summit of the Americas
At around 5:00 pm Monday in Caracas the summit
of representatives of countries belonging to the Bolivarian Alliance (ALBA)
convened to discuss Venezuela's general elections, to be held next May 20. The
host country's head of state, Nicolas Maduro, led the meeting, in which
Dominican Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit and Presidents Evo Morales or
Bolivia, Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua and Raul Castro of Cuba also took part. It
is reported they will pressure for Maduro to be included in the upcoming Summit
of the Americas. Bolivia’s former foreign minister and ALBA Secretary General
David Choquehuanca called the decision by the Lima Group to leave Maduro out
was “interference into Venezuela’s
internal affairs”, while Dominica’s Roosevelt Skerrit called the decision
to exclude Maduro “disrespectful of the
Venezuelan people” and a flagrant violation of international law. The group
said they would take unspecified “diplomatic and political measures” to ensure
Venezuela’s participation at the meeting. (EFE: https://www.efe.com/efe/english/world/alba-summit-in-venezuela-to-discuss-host-country-s-upcoming-elections/50000262-3543666, and more in Spanish: El Nuevo
Diario: https://www.elnuevodiario.com.ni/internacionales/457629-alba-venezuela-cumbre-americas/)
Venezuela opens
backchannel over jailed American, Maduro ally travels to Washington
President Nicolas Maduro welcomed a visit by a
top-ranking Republican congressional staffer last month to discuss the possible
release of a Utah man jailed for more than 20 months in this volatile nation,
six U.S. congressional and administration aides told The Associated Press. It's
not known if there has been any progress in the backchannel talks to secure
Joshua Holt's freedom, but the mere fact that Maduro met with the staffer, and
in turn sent an envoy of his own this week to Washington, may be a sign of
movement in a case that has become a major irritant as tensions between the two
countries rise. The unannounced discussions began when Caleb McCarry, a
Republican aide on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, traveled to Caracas
in February and met with Maduro and first lady Cilia Flores to discuss Holt's
imprisonment, said the aides, who agreed to discuss the matter only if not
quoted by name because the talks are sensitive. The behind-the-scenes dialogue
prompted a surprise visit this week to Washington by a trusted ally of Maduro,
Gov. Rafael Lacava of Carabobo state, to discuss Holt, three congressional
aides familiar with the visit said. The visit by Lacava, who traveled to
Washington on Sunday after being granted a U.S. visa, has been met with
hostility by Sen. Marco Rubio, a Florida Republican who is a harsh critic of
Maduro and has President Donald Trump's ear on policy toward Venezuela. One
congressional aide said that Lacava had only requested meetings on Capitol Hill
and that the sole purpose of those meetings is to urge the release of Holt and
not negotiate anything in exchange. Any discussion of sanctions relief that may
be on Lacava's agenda is unlikely to come up, since that is a matter for the
administration to decide, the aide added. (Fox News: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2018/03/06/us-aides-venezuela-opens-backchannel-over-jailed-american.html)
OP-ED: How Venezuela
tests Latin America’s commitment to democracy
When Bill Clinton called the first Summit of
the Americas in Miami in 1994 he wanted to celebrate the shared commitment of
all 34 countries in the hemisphere to democracy and free trade—all, that is,
except Cuba, the 35th, which was not invited. At the seventh summit in Panama
in 2015, regional solidarity prevailed. At Latin America’s insistence, Cuba was
invited and Raúl Castro sat down with Barack Obama, setting the seal on their
diplomatic détente. So, it was a big diplomatic step when last month Peru’s
government, the host of the eighth summit, scheduled for April 13th-14th,
announced that it was withdrawing Venezuela’s invitation and that Nicolás
Maduro, its president, would be denied entry. Peru acted for the 14-nation ad
hoc “Lima group”, which includes most Latin American countries. They rejected
Maduro’s decision to hold a sham presidential election on April 22nd. Latin
America is once again giving priority to the defense of democracy. What chance
is there that action by Venezuela’s neighbors can achieve results? Ostracism is
a start. Latin American countries should follow the United States and the EU in
barring the regime’s leaders from visiting, and in seizing their looted assets.
It should also demand that the faction-ridden opposition unite behind a single
leadership. Latin America has plenty of disagreements with Donald Trump, but
anti-imperialism should not, as Venezuela argues, override the defense of
democracy and human rights. Neither should the tradition of non-intervention,
nor an insistence on unattainable regional unanimity. That means the OAS might
not be the right diplomatic vehicle. Rather, the Group of Lima should turn itself
into an open-ended coalition of the willing to take whatever political action
is necessary to return Venezuela to democracy and stave off a humanitarian
disaster. (The Economist: https://www.economist.com/news/americas/21737555-regional-solidarity-should-not-trump-defence-pluralism-how-venezuela-tests-latin-americas)
Four in 10 Venezuelans
would leave Venezuela behind
Venezuelans are fleeing their country in droves
amid the chaos in their government and their streets. More than four in 10
residents (41%) in 2017 said they would like to move to another country
permanently if they could. This desire is higher than any figure Gallup has
measured since 2008 for the country. Up until 2014, no more than 15% of
Venezuelans expressed a desire to leave their country and live elsewhere. Meanwhile,
a small majority of Venezuelans say they would like to remain in their country.
These data were collected in the latter half of 2017, between August and
November, as violence and hunger overcame the country. During this period,
anti-government protesters raided a military base, taking weapons. GALLUP has
tracked Venezuela's descent on a host of measures in recent years. Now, many
Venezuelans would like to leave the crisis behind them. Of the residents who
say they would like to move away, one in five (20%) say they would like to go
to neighboring Colombia. By the end of 2017, Colombian immigration officials
have counted more than a half million Venezuelan refugees who crossed the
border. Nearly as many, 17%, say they would like to move to the U.S. The
current figure is a somewhat muted level of desire to move to the U.S. compared
with the past few years. Among Venezuelans who would like to move, about two in
three (64%) name another Latin American country as a desired destination,
including Colombia, Chile (12%), Panama (8%) and Ecuador (8%). Many of these
countries have made accommodations for Venezuelans entering their country. 6%
of those who would like to leave Venezuela say they would like to go to Spain. With
President Nicolas Maduro running for re-election this spring, a change in
leadership could cause many Venezuelans to reconsider a potential move.
(GALLUP: http://news.gallup.com/poll/228338/four-venezuelans-leave-venezuela-behind.aspx)
Venezuela’s collapse
causes humanitarian and security crisis for Colombia
The massive migratory flow from a collapsing
Venezuela can be measured by the 91,000 people estimated to have crossed
Colombia’s border on a single day in mid-February. Three statistics from
Migración Colombia convey the magnitude of the exodus. In 2012, 2,000
Venezuelans sought to travel through Colombia to Ecuador. In January, according
to Migracion Colombia, that number was 56,147 — a rate that would reach about
674,000 by year’s end. Many of those fleeing Venezuela go on to Peru and Chile
— and from the words of the migrants, anywhere but a return to Maduro-run
Venezuela. In the last six months of 2017, 68,739 applied for Migracion
Colombia’s Special Permanent Permission (PEP). In the first 37 days of 2018,
86,833 applied. Migracion Colombia already has issued 1.6 million short-term
visa-like permits for those who say they will go back to Venezuela after
working a few days or getting emergency medical care or just eating a decent
meal. Fortunately, President Juan Manuel Santos Calderón, having traveled to
Cúcuta three weeks ago, has called for a major international response — and the
magnitude of the humanitarian and security challenges clearly require speed,
generosity and wisdom. While the licit and illicit commerce across that almost
1,400-mile border is traditional. With no passport formally required between
the sister cities of Cúcuta and San Antonio, fewer migrants are returning to
Venezuela. Leaving Venezuela, migrants use seven formal monitored crossings like
the Simon Bolivar Bridge into Cucuta, or more than 200 smuggling paths, with
now 1,000 to 3000 staying in Colombia daily, according to Colombian officials.
Having walked along one of those paths with Colombian police to the mostly dry
riverbed separating the two countries, it was clear that not only pedestrians,
but motorcycles and trucks also can be used to smuggle cattle, gasoline and
anything else into Colombia, plus and narcotics or stolen minerals into
Venezuela. Colombia already had the task of implementing a complicated peace
accord that ended a five-decade conflict with the FARC guerrillas, while
battling other illegal armed groups all financed by cocaine and human
trafficking, kidnapping and extortion. The complicity of many at the highest
levels of the Maduro administration’s largely military-controlled trafficking
has been documented by the United States. The Colombia military just denounced
Venezuela’s providing sanctuary to ELN leaders and alleged involvement of two
Venezuelan troops in the latest ELN bombing in Barranquilla that resulted in
the deaths of six police and some 20 wounded. Colombia’s initial extra military
deployment of 3,000 troops and border police undoubtedly will serve to monitor
the illegal crossings more closely. However, with easily traversed scrub brush,
river and mountain borders, a halt to migration and to security threats from
Venezuela cannot be stopped by Colombia, only change in Venezuela can end those
pressures. (The Miami Herald: http://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/op-ed/article203654959.html)
Venezuela mass exodus
taking toll on nation's patrimony
About 4 million Venezuelans have left the
country since 1999, trying to escape hyperinflation, a worthless currency,
starvation and high crime after 19 years of Communist mis-rule, but as the pace
of the exodus picks up, some are also trying to take an iconic piece of their
country with them: small tiles from the large Carlos Cruz-Diez monumental
mosaic on the floor of the lobby of the departure section of the Simon Bolivar
International Airport, the oil-rich nation’s largest. Travelers and visitors
started noticing pieces of Op Art’s pioneer Cruz-Diez’s “Cromo interferencia de color aditivo” – installed in 1974-1978 and
taking up more than 2,600 square meters- missing. The trend began in earnest
five years ago, at about the same time Maduro took over. National Assembly
opposition lawmaker Delsa Solorzano took issue with the damaging of Cruz-Diez’s
work Monday in a series of tweets, asking travelers not to take that special
part of Venezuela with them, and reminding readers that maintenance is not
precisely the forte of Maduro’s administration. (Latin American Herald Tribune,
http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2452047&CategoryId=10717)
Abandoned minors roam
the streets of Venezuela after parents leave country
An increasing number of Venezuelans are
crossing the border into Colombia due to the unprecedented economic and social
crisis scourging their homeland, leaving their children in the care of
relatives who cannot afford to support them. Shelters for abandoned or orphaned
children have reported being overcrowded but they still receive requests to
house more kids from relatives and people under whose care the children have
been placed. (Latin American Herald Tribune, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2452021&CategoryId=10717)
Venezuelans, Go Home: Xenophobia Haunts
Refugees
For decades, the oil-rich citizens of a great
nation were stereotyped by their poorer neighbors as haughty. Now comes the
payback. (Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-03-05/venezuelans-go-home-xenophobia-spreads-as-refugees-flee-crisis)
The following brief
is a synthesis of the news as reported by a variety of media sources. As such,
the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Duarte
Vivas & Asociados and The Selinger Group.
